BustedKnuckles
Footballguy
By Pat Fitzmaurice
Dec. 20, 2007
Unless you’re one of the lucky few owners still vying for a fantasy football championship, you’re probably muttering to yourself, “Wait ’til next year.”
Well, why wait?
What follows is a preview of what fantasy drafts might look like in 2008. But rather than conducting a mock draft, let’s just make it a straight list of the top 50 picks for 2008. The list is based partly on where players are likely to go, partly on where they should go.
The good news is that it looks to be a deep draft. There are some very good, very productive players who didn’t crack the top 50. The bad news is that there will be very few easy decisions for fantasy owners. I think there will be a pretty clear consensus about the top four or five players on the board, although there will certainly be debates about how those players fall into order. Beyond that, it’s going to be a free-for-all. From pick No. 6 on, the order in which players fall is going to vary wildly from league to league. And while running backs usually dominate the early rounds of most fantasy drafts, that might not be the case in 2008, depending on how RB-centric your league usually is.
Variables such as injuries and offseason player movement obviously will affect things between now and next year’s fantasy drafts, but I’d like to think this is a reasonable estimation of where players are going to be drafted next summer. Let’s get started, shall we?
1. Adrian Peterson — In the weeks leading up to ’08 fantasy drafts, there will be endless debate about whether Peterson or LaDainian Tomlinson should be No. 1. Their per-game yardage and TD totals for this season are very similar. Peterson has the younger legs. Tomlinson has the longer track record. The reason why I give Peterson a slight edge is his mind-boggling average of 5.9 yards per carry. Tomlinson’s 4.7-yard average ain’t chopped liver, but Peterson’s YPC average hints that he might eclipse Tomlinson in terms of all-time greatness.
2. LaDainian Tomlinson — After scoring 31 TDs last season, he’s scored “only” 16 times this season. But don’t bother looking for signs of decline, because Tomlinson’s TD total is very much in line with the TD numbers he put up annually from 2002 to 2005, and his yardage numbers offer no indication that he’s slowing down. Peterson may have slightly more upside, but Tomlinson is still the safest bet in fantasy football.
3. Joseph Addai — A nice consolation prize if you aren’t fortunate enough to land a top-two pick. He runs, he catches, he has a nose for the endzone, and he plays in one of the NFL’s best offenses.
4. Brian Westbrook — Some would argue that he deserves to be ranked one spot higher. Others will remember that this has been the rare season in which Westbrook hasn’t appeared regularly on the NFL’s weekly injury reports.
5. Steven Jackson — He’s had a disappointing, injury-marred year, but if you’ve watched Jackson over the last month or so, you’ve no doubt come to the conclusion that he’s still one of the league’s elite running backs. He looked sensational last week in gashing a good Green Bay run defense for 143 rushing yards and a TD.
6. Frank Gore — Here’s where things start to get tricky. Gore isn’t exactly having a banner season, and his TD totals over his three-year career haven’t been top-drawer, but he’s still grinding out about 100 combined rushing-receiving yards per game, and one gets the feeling that his best seasons are still to come. Gore has been highly productive early in his career despite playing on a bad team. If the 49ers can somehow get the rest of their offense to jell, Gore will put up career-best numbers.
7. Larry Johnson — Whereas fantasy owners once confidently called out his name on draft day, they’ll now swallow hard and take a deep breath before announcing this pick. A preseason holdout and a major foot injury trashed L.J.’s 2007 season, and it’s alarming that he was averaging only 3.5 yards per carry before getting hurt. But he was still on pace for a respectable 1,100 rushing yards and eight TDs, and he still has an outside chance of returning to the level of dominance he displayed in 2005 and 2006.
8. Marion Barber — A certified TD machine even though he’s been stuck in a time-share role, Barber will probably get a chance to show what he can do in a featured role next season, since teammate Julius Jones is set to become an unrestricted free agent. If he gets 300 carries, he’ll probably be a top-five running back.
9. Marshawn Lynch — He’s had a nice rookie season despite missing three games due to injury. Lynch is a near-lock to rush for more than 1,000 yards, and if he hadn’t missed those three games, he probably would have had a reasonable chance to hit double digits in TDs. There’s big upside here.
10. Willie Parker — He’s plummeted from 16 TDs last season to only two this season, but he’s still rolling up healthy yardage totals, and he’ll still be the featured runner in a very good offense. Parker may not score 16 TDs again, but it’s reasonable to expect something in the neighborhood of eight or nine.
11. Randy Moss — Even if he can’t equal this season’s eye-popping numbers, Moss should have no trouble getting to about 1,400 receiving yards and 14 TDs (provided that both Moss and Tom Brady remain healthy, of course).
12. Earnest Graham — It will be interesting to see what sort of backfield plans the Buccaneers make for next season, but it’s hard to envision Cadillac Williams reclaiming his starting job after what Graham has done. Graham has scored 10 TDs this season, and over his last six games he has seven TDs (at least one in each game) and three 100-yard rushing games. We may be looking at the new Shaun Alexander.
13. Ryan Grant — It’s funny how two guys who went undrafted in most fantasy leagues this year (Graham and Grant) will be first-rounders in a lot of fantasy drafts next year. Grant has emerged from obscurity to give the Packers a potent running game. Over his last six contests, he’s scored six TDs and has gone over 100 rushing yards three times. And believe me, he’s no fluke. Grant has terrific run instincts, getting maximum yardage out of almost every carry.
14. Tom Brady — Some of you may be aghast that he’s this far down on the list despite being on pace to break Peyton Manning’s record of 49 TD passes in a single season. Well, consider that after setting that record in 2004, Manning threw only 28 TD passes the following season and hasn’t thrown more than 31 TD passes in a season since setting the record. There’s no denying Brady’s greatness, and it wouldn’t be outrageous to draft him in the top 10. But quarterbacks have very fragile ecosystems. What if Randy Moss or Wes Welker got hurt? What if Matt Light, Brady’s outstanding left tackle, got hurt? What if the Patriots decide to run the ball more? If he stays healthy in 2008, Brady should be a lock for 4,000 passing yards and 30-plus TDs, but to expect a repeat of this season’s totals would be unwise.
15. Ronnie Brown — He was off to a terrific start before he went down with a season-ending knee injury, despite playing on an awful team. No question there’s risk involved with drafting a running back so soon after a knee injury, but this draft slot factors in a slight injury discount.
16. Clinton Portis — A solid bet, although the mileage is starting to pile up.
17. Darren McFadden — After what Adrian Peterson has done in his rookie season, you can bet that the top running back in the 2008 NFL draft won’t slide too far. McFadden, the runner-up for the Heisman Trophy, has the size and speed to be a force in the NFL for years.
18. Reggie Bush — Here’s a hard player to slot. He hasn’t lived up to his draft hype, and his TD totals haven’t been great, but he’s an explosive threat who has compiled very respectable rushing-receiving yardage totals. Despite this year’s season-ending injury, durability isn’t a major concern. He’s no longer expected to revolutionize the pro game, but he could make a nice sleeper this far down.
19. Willis McGahee — He’s been solid but unspectacular for a bad Ravens team. A fairly safe bet for ’08.
20. LenDale White — A lack of speed limits his yardage potential, but he figures to be a dependable TD scorer.
21. Brandon Jacobs — If he can stay healthy, he should be a force. Jacobs has shown flashes of greatness, but he’s a big back who absorbs a lot of punishment, and he has yet to prove that he can hold up under a heavy workload.
22. Tony Romo — No question he’s legit. If you draft him, just be sure to keep Jessica Simpson out of your team’s luxury skyboxes.
23. Jamal Lewis — Lewis is an unrestricted free agent, but the Browns are likely to either give him a new deal or slap the franchise tag on him. Lewis has aged remarkably well, and he’s developed a knack for really kicking things into gear during the second half of the regular season. Still, you have to wonder when all the wear and tear is going to kick in for a guy who’s logged more than 2,000 regular-season carries over his career.
24. Laurence Maroney — Surprised to see him this high on the list? It’s been a weird and disappointing year for Maroney, whose fantasy stock was expected to soar in the post-Corey Dillon era. As it turns out, Maroney is on pace to get roughly the same number of carries that he got last season while splitting carries with Dillon. Maroney is still reasonably productive when he gets the ball; he just isn’t getting it enough. He’s immensely talented, and if the Patriots tweak their offensive modus operandi for next season and re-emphasize the run, Maroney could prove to be a tremendous fantasy value. One caveat, however: The Patriots own San Francisco’s first-round draft pick for next year, and they could be positioned to draft Darren McFadden. If they take McFadden and don’t trade Maroney, then Maroney shouldn’t be anywhere near the top 50.
25. Peyton Manning — Supremely dependable. As long as you don’t overreach for him too early in a draft, he’ll never let you down.
26. Marques Colston — He had an impressive rookie year in 2006, then got off to a slow start in ’07, but he caught fire in Week Eight and has been on a tear ever since. Colston just keeps getting better and better.
27. Terrell Owens — Over his last four seasons, he’s caught 47 TD passes in 51 games. It’s hard to believe that he’ll turn 35 next December, and even harder to believe that he’s been so well-behaved this season. He’s showing no signs of slowing down. Owens may even be mellowing with age. (Nah.)
28. Edgerrin James — He’ll probably go a little higher than this, but I’ll let someone else take the risk. James is a noble warhorse to be sure, but next season will be his 10th as a pro, he’s logged a ton of mileage, and his explosiveness is gone. Let the buyer beware.
29. Reggie Wayne — He’s now the undisputed No. 1 receiver for the Colts, and a safe bet for 1,300 receiving yards and 10 TDs.
30. Braylon Edwards — A star is born.
31. Maurice Jones-Drew — A time-share role with Fred Taylor has limited his value, but realize that MJD has still scored 23 TDs in his 30 NFL games, and his yardage totals haven’t been shabby.
32. Drew Brees — He got off to a wretched start but has been on fire since mid-October. Over his last 10 games, he’s averaging 2.4 TD passes per game.
33. Antonio Gates — A lot of tight ends are having nice seasons, but Gates is still the undisputed king of TEs. He always seems to finish with about 1,000 yards and 10 TD catches. He may have rated slightly higher in years past, but the gap between Gates and the rest of the TE field has narrowed a bit.
34. Shaun Alexander — One of the most reliable TD machines of the decade is nearing the end. I wouldn’t go near him on draft day even if I were wearing a hazmat suit. He looked flat-out terrible this year. (And when you process the word “terrible,” please imagine Bill Walton saying it: “Terrrrrrrrrrible!”)
35. Michael Turner — This is probably too low for a guy who’s going to be an unrestricted free agent and is probably going to end up with a team that will use him as a featured runner.
36. Carson Palmer — He’s certainly good, but some people were expecting Palmer to ratchet up his game to Hall of Fame level, and it looks as if he may not have quite that much upside.
37. Greg Jennings — This dude has been manna from the fantasy heavens. He has 12 TD catches in 12 games, and half of those TD catches have covered more than 40 yards. Jennings, not Donald Driver, is the No. 1 receiver in Green Bay. However, if Brett Favre retires, Jennings falls from the top 50.
38. Larry Fitzgerald — He’s the Toyota Corolla of wide receivers: not flashy but highly dependable.
39. Steve Smith — He’ll fall too far in drafts because of his substandard 2007 numbers, but he should bounce back if Jake Delhomme is healthy and the Panthers’ QB woes become a thing of the past.
40. Chad Johnson — He’s still a dependable yardage guy, and he’s always good for a couple of monster games per season, but he hasn’t reached double digits in TDs since 2003.
41. Andre Johnson — Very talented, very streaky, possibly a little injury-prone. A boom-or-bust proposition.
42. Travis Henry — Care to take another spin on the Broncos’ RB carousel? And would you care to ride a pony with a past as checkered as this one’s? Me neither.
43. Ben Roethlisberger — After a couple of years of pedestrian TD totals, he’s poised to finish the season somewhere in the 30s. His yardage numbers still lag behind those of other top-echelon QBs, but those numbers could eventually spike in the same way his TD numbers did.
44. Brandon Marshall — He’s enjoying a breakout season and will be a hot commodity in next year’s fantasy drafts.
45. Plaxico Burress — He’s one of the NFL’s most feared big-play receivers, and you have to tip your hat to him for gutting it out all season on a bad wheel. Trouble is, we now realize that Eli Manning is never going to match his older brother’s accomplishments, and as long as the Giants’ QB play remains sporadic, Burress is going to have a bunch of games where his numbers are subpar. There have been eight games this season in which Burress was held under 50 receiving yards, and he scored a TD in only two of those games. You can’t afford to have your No. 1 receiver turning in that many clunker performances.
46. Kevin Jones — He’s made a successful return from a major foot injury, but his fantasy value will be limited as long as he plays in a Mike Martz-coordinated offense. Too often, Martz simply abandons the running game, and fantasy owners are stuck with a “featured” running back who gets fewer than a half-dozen carries in some games.
47. Jonathan Stewart — This college star from the University of Oregon figures to be a first-round NFL pick and will probably start the season in a platoon role with some team, although it’s possible that he could be featured from the get-go.
48. Torry Holt — This may be too low for such a steady receiver. On the other hand, he’s going to be entering his 10th pro season, and the Rams aren’t exactly the “Greatest Show on Turf” anymore.
49. Matt Hasselbeck — He’s having the best season of his career with help from a good collection of receivers. Do you think Hasselbeck misses Darrell Jackson and his slippery mitts?
50. Roy Williams — Still an elite receiver, but he has to share the ball with a lot of different Detroit receivers.
OK, so who just missed qualifying for the top 50? Here’s a thumbnail look, with a brief explanation for their exclusion:
Fred Taylor would make the list if only he were a more dependable TD scorer. ... T.J. Houshmandzadeh has cooled off considerably after a blazing start to his season. ... Jason Witten is having a banner season, but why reach for the No. 2 tight end when the gap between No. 2 and the next five or six receivers is so narrow? ... Ditto for No. 3 TE Kellen Winslow. ... Brett Favre may be golfing or mowing his lawn on fall Sundays rather than dissecting defenses. ... Check out Rudi Johnson’s per-carry average for this year; would you really want him starting for your fantasy team next year?
Derek Anderson has had a fine season, but I want to see a little more from him before I make him a top-50 guy. ... Like Anderson, Jay Cutler is on the cusp but not quite to the level of complete trustworthiness. ... Justin Fargas is too brittle and isn’t guaranteed a featured role for next season. ... Anquan Boldin is a stud, but he doesn’t score enough TDs to merit a top-50 ranking. ... Wes Welker has to do it again before I become a true believer, even though I rode him in two leagues this year. ... Is anyone else tired of waiting for the Jerious Norwood era to begin? ... Thomas Jones may not be good enough to be a featured runner; a time-share role seems more his speed. ... Calvin Johnson has big upside, but he ain’t there yet.
Dec. 20, 2007
Unless you’re one of the lucky few owners still vying for a fantasy football championship, you’re probably muttering to yourself, “Wait ’til next year.”
Well, why wait?
What follows is a preview of what fantasy drafts might look like in 2008. But rather than conducting a mock draft, let’s just make it a straight list of the top 50 picks for 2008. The list is based partly on where players are likely to go, partly on where they should go.
The good news is that it looks to be a deep draft. There are some very good, very productive players who didn’t crack the top 50. The bad news is that there will be very few easy decisions for fantasy owners. I think there will be a pretty clear consensus about the top four or five players on the board, although there will certainly be debates about how those players fall into order. Beyond that, it’s going to be a free-for-all. From pick No. 6 on, the order in which players fall is going to vary wildly from league to league. And while running backs usually dominate the early rounds of most fantasy drafts, that might not be the case in 2008, depending on how RB-centric your league usually is.
Variables such as injuries and offseason player movement obviously will affect things between now and next year’s fantasy drafts, but I’d like to think this is a reasonable estimation of where players are going to be drafted next summer. Let’s get started, shall we?
1. Adrian Peterson — In the weeks leading up to ’08 fantasy drafts, there will be endless debate about whether Peterson or LaDainian Tomlinson should be No. 1. Their per-game yardage and TD totals for this season are very similar. Peterson has the younger legs. Tomlinson has the longer track record. The reason why I give Peterson a slight edge is his mind-boggling average of 5.9 yards per carry. Tomlinson’s 4.7-yard average ain’t chopped liver, but Peterson’s YPC average hints that he might eclipse Tomlinson in terms of all-time greatness.
2. LaDainian Tomlinson — After scoring 31 TDs last season, he’s scored “only” 16 times this season. But don’t bother looking for signs of decline, because Tomlinson’s TD total is very much in line with the TD numbers he put up annually from 2002 to 2005, and his yardage numbers offer no indication that he’s slowing down. Peterson may have slightly more upside, but Tomlinson is still the safest bet in fantasy football.
3. Joseph Addai — A nice consolation prize if you aren’t fortunate enough to land a top-two pick. He runs, he catches, he has a nose for the endzone, and he plays in one of the NFL’s best offenses.
4. Brian Westbrook — Some would argue that he deserves to be ranked one spot higher. Others will remember that this has been the rare season in which Westbrook hasn’t appeared regularly on the NFL’s weekly injury reports.
5. Steven Jackson — He’s had a disappointing, injury-marred year, but if you’ve watched Jackson over the last month or so, you’ve no doubt come to the conclusion that he’s still one of the league’s elite running backs. He looked sensational last week in gashing a good Green Bay run defense for 143 rushing yards and a TD.
6. Frank Gore — Here’s where things start to get tricky. Gore isn’t exactly having a banner season, and his TD totals over his three-year career haven’t been top-drawer, but he’s still grinding out about 100 combined rushing-receiving yards per game, and one gets the feeling that his best seasons are still to come. Gore has been highly productive early in his career despite playing on a bad team. If the 49ers can somehow get the rest of their offense to jell, Gore will put up career-best numbers.
7. Larry Johnson — Whereas fantasy owners once confidently called out his name on draft day, they’ll now swallow hard and take a deep breath before announcing this pick. A preseason holdout and a major foot injury trashed L.J.’s 2007 season, and it’s alarming that he was averaging only 3.5 yards per carry before getting hurt. But he was still on pace for a respectable 1,100 rushing yards and eight TDs, and he still has an outside chance of returning to the level of dominance he displayed in 2005 and 2006.
8. Marion Barber — A certified TD machine even though he’s been stuck in a time-share role, Barber will probably get a chance to show what he can do in a featured role next season, since teammate Julius Jones is set to become an unrestricted free agent. If he gets 300 carries, he’ll probably be a top-five running back.
9. Marshawn Lynch — He’s had a nice rookie season despite missing three games due to injury. Lynch is a near-lock to rush for more than 1,000 yards, and if he hadn’t missed those three games, he probably would have had a reasonable chance to hit double digits in TDs. There’s big upside here.
10. Willie Parker — He’s plummeted from 16 TDs last season to only two this season, but he’s still rolling up healthy yardage totals, and he’ll still be the featured runner in a very good offense. Parker may not score 16 TDs again, but it’s reasonable to expect something in the neighborhood of eight or nine.
11. Randy Moss — Even if he can’t equal this season’s eye-popping numbers, Moss should have no trouble getting to about 1,400 receiving yards and 14 TDs (provided that both Moss and Tom Brady remain healthy, of course).
12. Earnest Graham — It will be interesting to see what sort of backfield plans the Buccaneers make for next season, but it’s hard to envision Cadillac Williams reclaiming his starting job after what Graham has done. Graham has scored 10 TDs this season, and over his last six games he has seven TDs (at least one in each game) and three 100-yard rushing games. We may be looking at the new Shaun Alexander.
13. Ryan Grant — It’s funny how two guys who went undrafted in most fantasy leagues this year (Graham and Grant) will be first-rounders in a lot of fantasy drafts next year. Grant has emerged from obscurity to give the Packers a potent running game. Over his last six contests, he’s scored six TDs and has gone over 100 rushing yards three times. And believe me, he’s no fluke. Grant has terrific run instincts, getting maximum yardage out of almost every carry.
14. Tom Brady — Some of you may be aghast that he’s this far down on the list despite being on pace to break Peyton Manning’s record of 49 TD passes in a single season. Well, consider that after setting that record in 2004, Manning threw only 28 TD passes the following season and hasn’t thrown more than 31 TD passes in a season since setting the record. There’s no denying Brady’s greatness, and it wouldn’t be outrageous to draft him in the top 10. But quarterbacks have very fragile ecosystems. What if Randy Moss or Wes Welker got hurt? What if Matt Light, Brady’s outstanding left tackle, got hurt? What if the Patriots decide to run the ball more? If he stays healthy in 2008, Brady should be a lock for 4,000 passing yards and 30-plus TDs, but to expect a repeat of this season’s totals would be unwise.
15. Ronnie Brown — He was off to a terrific start before he went down with a season-ending knee injury, despite playing on an awful team. No question there’s risk involved with drafting a running back so soon after a knee injury, but this draft slot factors in a slight injury discount.
16. Clinton Portis — A solid bet, although the mileage is starting to pile up.
17. Darren McFadden — After what Adrian Peterson has done in his rookie season, you can bet that the top running back in the 2008 NFL draft won’t slide too far. McFadden, the runner-up for the Heisman Trophy, has the size and speed to be a force in the NFL for years.
18. Reggie Bush — Here’s a hard player to slot. He hasn’t lived up to his draft hype, and his TD totals haven’t been great, but he’s an explosive threat who has compiled very respectable rushing-receiving yardage totals. Despite this year’s season-ending injury, durability isn’t a major concern. He’s no longer expected to revolutionize the pro game, but he could make a nice sleeper this far down.
19. Willis McGahee — He’s been solid but unspectacular for a bad Ravens team. A fairly safe bet for ’08.
20. LenDale White — A lack of speed limits his yardage potential, but he figures to be a dependable TD scorer.
21. Brandon Jacobs — If he can stay healthy, he should be a force. Jacobs has shown flashes of greatness, but he’s a big back who absorbs a lot of punishment, and he has yet to prove that he can hold up under a heavy workload.
22. Tony Romo — No question he’s legit. If you draft him, just be sure to keep Jessica Simpson out of your team’s luxury skyboxes.
23. Jamal Lewis — Lewis is an unrestricted free agent, but the Browns are likely to either give him a new deal or slap the franchise tag on him. Lewis has aged remarkably well, and he’s developed a knack for really kicking things into gear during the second half of the regular season. Still, you have to wonder when all the wear and tear is going to kick in for a guy who’s logged more than 2,000 regular-season carries over his career.
24. Laurence Maroney — Surprised to see him this high on the list? It’s been a weird and disappointing year for Maroney, whose fantasy stock was expected to soar in the post-Corey Dillon era. As it turns out, Maroney is on pace to get roughly the same number of carries that he got last season while splitting carries with Dillon. Maroney is still reasonably productive when he gets the ball; he just isn’t getting it enough. He’s immensely talented, and if the Patriots tweak their offensive modus operandi for next season and re-emphasize the run, Maroney could prove to be a tremendous fantasy value. One caveat, however: The Patriots own San Francisco’s first-round draft pick for next year, and they could be positioned to draft Darren McFadden. If they take McFadden and don’t trade Maroney, then Maroney shouldn’t be anywhere near the top 50.
25. Peyton Manning — Supremely dependable. As long as you don’t overreach for him too early in a draft, he’ll never let you down.
26. Marques Colston — He had an impressive rookie year in 2006, then got off to a slow start in ’07, but he caught fire in Week Eight and has been on a tear ever since. Colston just keeps getting better and better.
27. Terrell Owens — Over his last four seasons, he’s caught 47 TD passes in 51 games. It’s hard to believe that he’ll turn 35 next December, and even harder to believe that he’s been so well-behaved this season. He’s showing no signs of slowing down. Owens may even be mellowing with age. (Nah.)
28. Edgerrin James — He’ll probably go a little higher than this, but I’ll let someone else take the risk. James is a noble warhorse to be sure, but next season will be his 10th as a pro, he’s logged a ton of mileage, and his explosiveness is gone. Let the buyer beware.
29. Reggie Wayne — He’s now the undisputed No. 1 receiver for the Colts, and a safe bet for 1,300 receiving yards and 10 TDs.
30. Braylon Edwards — A star is born.
31. Maurice Jones-Drew — A time-share role with Fred Taylor has limited his value, but realize that MJD has still scored 23 TDs in his 30 NFL games, and his yardage totals haven’t been shabby.
32. Drew Brees — He got off to a wretched start but has been on fire since mid-October. Over his last 10 games, he’s averaging 2.4 TD passes per game.
33. Antonio Gates — A lot of tight ends are having nice seasons, but Gates is still the undisputed king of TEs. He always seems to finish with about 1,000 yards and 10 TD catches. He may have rated slightly higher in years past, but the gap between Gates and the rest of the TE field has narrowed a bit.
34. Shaun Alexander — One of the most reliable TD machines of the decade is nearing the end. I wouldn’t go near him on draft day even if I were wearing a hazmat suit. He looked flat-out terrible this year. (And when you process the word “terrible,” please imagine Bill Walton saying it: “Terrrrrrrrrrible!”)
35. Michael Turner — This is probably too low for a guy who’s going to be an unrestricted free agent and is probably going to end up with a team that will use him as a featured runner.
36. Carson Palmer — He’s certainly good, but some people were expecting Palmer to ratchet up his game to Hall of Fame level, and it looks as if he may not have quite that much upside.
37. Greg Jennings — This dude has been manna from the fantasy heavens. He has 12 TD catches in 12 games, and half of those TD catches have covered more than 40 yards. Jennings, not Donald Driver, is the No. 1 receiver in Green Bay. However, if Brett Favre retires, Jennings falls from the top 50.
38. Larry Fitzgerald — He’s the Toyota Corolla of wide receivers: not flashy but highly dependable.
39. Steve Smith — He’ll fall too far in drafts because of his substandard 2007 numbers, but he should bounce back if Jake Delhomme is healthy and the Panthers’ QB woes become a thing of the past.
40. Chad Johnson — He’s still a dependable yardage guy, and he’s always good for a couple of monster games per season, but he hasn’t reached double digits in TDs since 2003.
41. Andre Johnson — Very talented, very streaky, possibly a little injury-prone. A boom-or-bust proposition.
42. Travis Henry — Care to take another spin on the Broncos’ RB carousel? And would you care to ride a pony with a past as checkered as this one’s? Me neither.
43. Ben Roethlisberger — After a couple of years of pedestrian TD totals, he’s poised to finish the season somewhere in the 30s. His yardage numbers still lag behind those of other top-echelon QBs, but those numbers could eventually spike in the same way his TD numbers did.
44. Brandon Marshall — He’s enjoying a breakout season and will be a hot commodity in next year’s fantasy drafts.
45. Plaxico Burress — He’s one of the NFL’s most feared big-play receivers, and you have to tip your hat to him for gutting it out all season on a bad wheel. Trouble is, we now realize that Eli Manning is never going to match his older brother’s accomplishments, and as long as the Giants’ QB play remains sporadic, Burress is going to have a bunch of games where his numbers are subpar. There have been eight games this season in which Burress was held under 50 receiving yards, and he scored a TD in only two of those games. You can’t afford to have your No. 1 receiver turning in that many clunker performances.
46. Kevin Jones — He’s made a successful return from a major foot injury, but his fantasy value will be limited as long as he plays in a Mike Martz-coordinated offense. Too often, Martz simply abandons the running game, and fantasy owners are stuck with a “featured” running back who gets fewer than a half-dozen carries in some games.
47. Jonathan Stewart — This college star from the University of Oregon figures to be a first-round NFL pick and will probably start the season in a platoon role with some team, although it’s possible that he could be featured from the get-go.
48. Torry Holt — This may be too low for such a steady receiver. On the other hand, he’s going to be entering his 10th pro season, and the Rams aren’t exactly the “Greatest Show on Turf” anymore.
49. Matt Hasselbeck — He’s having the best season of his career with help from a good collection of receivers. Do you think Hasselbeck misses Darrell Jackson and his slippery mitts?
50. Roy Williams — Still an elite receiver, but he has to share the ball with a lot of different Detroit receivers.
OK, so who just missed qualifying for the top 50? Here’s a thumbnail look, with a brief explanation for their exclusion:
Fred Taylor would make the list if only he were a more dependable TD scorer. ... T.J. Houshmandzadeh has cooled off considerably after a blazing start to his season. ... Jason Witten is having a banner season, but why reach for the No. 2 tight end when the gap between No. 2 and the next five or six receivers is so narrow? ... Ditto for No. 3 TE Kellen Winslow. ... Brett Favre may be golfing or mowing his lawn on fall Sundays rather than dissecting defenses. ... Check out Rudi Johnson’s per-carry average for this year; would you really want him starting for your fantasy team next year?
Derek Anderson has had a fine season, but I want to see a little more from him before I make him a top-50 guy. ... Like Anderson, Jay Cutler is on the cusp but not quite to the level of complete trustworthiness. ... Justin Fargas is too brittle and isn’t guaranteed a featured role for next season. ... Anquan Boldin is a stud, but he doesn’t score enough TDs to merit a top-50 ranking. ... Wes Welker has to do it again before I become a true believer, even though I rode him in two leagues this year. ... Is anyone else tired of waiting for the Jerious Norwood era to begin? ... Thomas Jones may not be good enough to be a featured runner; a time-share role seems more his speed. ... Calvin Johnson has big upside, but he ain’t there yet.
But Westbrook *HAS* appeared regularly on the NFL's weekly injury reports.
But Westbrook *HAS* appeared regularly on the NFL's weekly injury reports.
AJ as WR11? :guppie:
It's not like he's the #1 overall fantasy player this year. I'm sure people will forget that and let him fall to round 2 next year.
