A Theory of QB Development (1 Viewer)

[Bob Magaw]

i read once that coming out of college, two key factors that correlated to future NFL success were starts (i think, maybe wins) & accuracy (completion %)...

so, back to jackson...

most QBs, with few exceptions, struggle early... but it seems like the NATURE of the struggles has to do with the speed & complexity of the game, a lack of knowledge & experience... this could lead to holding the ball too long, taking unnecessary sacks, making dumb throw into coverage...

the alarming issue with jackson, is even when he has had time, whether through good blocking or keeping the play alive with his feet, he has still been appalingly inaccurate... this is his third year in the league...

this prompts a few questions for me...

is a lack of accuracy generally a death blow precursor to a young QBs career?

are there many examples of QBs that were wildly inaccurate earlier in their career & than at some point BECAME accurate?

* interestingly (to me at least), if we use mcnabb as a measuring stick in terms of how jackson has tracked as far as his developmental curve (jackson was supposed to be childress' mcnabb), in his first five seasons, mcnabb had an unimpressive 49%, 58%, 57%, 58% & 57%... in HIS first three seasons, jackson is at 58%, 58% & 51%...

 

[Ozymandias]

Steve Young in TB? First 2 years, 11 td's, 21 int's, 53% completion rate.

Of course, their o-line sucked, and he was running for his life. Not the case in MIN today.

 

[jestertj]

i read once that coming out of college, two key factors that correlated to future NFL success were starts (i think, maybe wins) & accuracy (completion %)...so, back to jackson...most QBs, with few exceptions, struggle early... but it seems like the NATURE of the struggles has to do with the speed & complexity of the game, a lack of knowledge & experience... this could lead to holding the ball too long, taking unnecessary sacks, making dumb throw into coverage...the alarming issue with jackson, is even when he has had time, whether through good blocking or keeping the play alive with his feet, he has still been appalingly inaccurate... this is his third year in the league...this prompts a few questions for me... is a lack of accuracy generally a death blow precursor to a young QBs career?are there many examples of QBs that were wildly inaccurate earlier in their career & than at some point BECAME accurate?

Probably yes and no respectively

 

[bucsbaby]

Interesting analysis

To add to it:

I've also been wondering about QB development as I have been watching a lot of Aaron Rodgers. Here's a guy who studied hard on the bench for a few years before being put in as a starter. And, in his first season as a starter, he has been thriving.

Now, of course, not every team has the luxury of a Brett Favre for a new QB to study under for a few years. Also, some QBs such as Peyton, have been thrust into the fire and emerged as studs.

But, I'm thinking that there may be a trend where rookie QBs are forced into the fire too soon and it damages their development. I really like Steve Young's insight into QBs and he is always saying that QB is an art that takes a good period of time of hard study to really pick up. By that standard, I think Rodgers has done all the right things (Peyton also has a reputation for a strong work ethic in that respect).

With the CBA being up in the air and one of the issues owners are pushing for is rookie salary reduction, I am wondering if teams could draft QBs of the future and be more inclined to let them sit on the bench for a few years to learn and develop--if they aren't paying them gigantic salaries that may pressure them (via the media, fanbase, etc.) into thrusting in their rookie QBs before they are ready?

 

[Bl Deep]

I think it all comes down to work ethic....

Knowing what to do trumps forcing your athleticism and raw talent to carry you through...

Step 1: Locate open receiver (a product of work ethic and study)

Step 2: Deliver the football (product of talent)

I think at this level, the gap between NFL QBs in regards to Step 2 is closer than field awareness.

Like most things at the NFL level, athleticism tends to even out, and even the burners in college (Reggie Bush etc...) have alot harder time getting yards and have to rely more on understanding the game to gain yardage.

Very dumbed down, but i think the heart of QB play is behind the scenes study...

Much like in baseball, so much of success in terms of pitching is the catchers ability to call a great game.... You may be able to deliver a 98mph fastball on demand, but if you aren;t locating the ball properly or getting it in areas of the strikezone that give you an advantage, it doesn't matter.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Lots of young QBs were inaccurate. But being inaccurate and not getting big gains when you complete passes is usually a death knell.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=591

Long summary there.

 

[T Bell]

i read once that coming out of college, two key factors that correlated to future NFL success were starts (i think, maybe wins) & accuracy (completion %)...so, back to jackson...most QBs, with few exceptions, struggle early... but it seems like the NATURE of the struggles has to do with the speed & complexity of the game, a lack of knowledge & experience... this could lead to holding the ball too long, taking unnecessary sacks, making dumb throw into coverage...the alarming issue with jackson, is even when he has had time, whether through good blocking or keeping the play alive with his feet, he has still been appalingly inaccurate... this is his third year in the league...this prompts a few questions for me... is a lack of accuracy generally a death blow precursor to a young QBs career?are there many examples of QBs that were wildly inaccurate earlier in their career & than at some point BECAME accurate?* interestingly (to me at least), if we use mcnabb as a measuring stick in terms of how jackson has tracked as far as his developmental curve (jackson was supposed to be childress' mcnabb), in his first five seasons, mcnabb had an unimpressive 49%, 58%, 57%, 58% & 57%... in HIS first three seasons, jackson is at 58%, 58% & 51%...

I think you oversimplified this - you're referring to a study done by KC Joyner IIRC and the criteria used was something like:30+ college starts;60+ college completion %; anddrafted in rounds 1 or 2.The last part is important because it weeds out players benefitting from poor competition, or who just didn't pass the eye test. As for being a "death blow" if they don't fit the criteria, it's not but the "hit %" of guys who turn into good NFL QB's is much, much higher if they meet that criteria than if they don't.

 

[Ditkaless Wonders]

Just take a larger than normal 5 year old with good athleticism and decent intelligence and then convince Archie Manning that the kid came out of his wife's womb. 20 years latter you will have a pro bowl Q.B.

 

[candymanvandyfan]

C) College football should be truly treated like a minor league system, with larger schools treated as specific "children" entities under NFL "mother" franchises, including resources, coaching and training.

No disrespect meant here, but this C above is a terrible idea, the implementation of which would turn college football into more of a seedy traveshamockery than it is now. Let's not kid ourselves: What "college" football is now is a forced, three-year, unpaid apprenticeship for would-be football laborers who are prohibited from being given the opportunity to work in their field by a powerful, highly exclusionary NFL PA that protects the pampered, monied interests of washed-up veterans. As an aside, why do you think baseball and hockey have active minor leagues, but basketball and football do not? Why do basketball players and football players have to risk so much injury playing in college without getting paid while baseball and hockey players can play professionally right out of high school? Don't give me the physical readiness argument unless you've ever watched an entire season of NHL hockey in person. Gymnasts, tennis players, golfers...why don't we care if they get a "college education" before making any money?Back to the main point, I've always thought Yards Per Attempt to be a good measure of potential quarterbacking success. If your college coach is having you dink and dunk at a decent football school, it's not a good sign.

 

[Bob Magaw]

greed is good, GG... & i'm greedy to find better ways to identify better pro QB prospects earlier...

i agree that the tests for athleticism & screens based on external measurables are better than those that might identify differences of a more inner nature (which QBs will crack under the intense pressure they are subjected to, & which will not only survive, but actually thrive?)...

i also agree that sometimes the rate limiting step on what we can learn (whether individually or collectively) is the quality of our questions... on a side note, a quality question can probably be leveraged to even greater effect when bounced off the 1,000-eyed monster that is the SP (or FFA, as the case may be)...

& maybe the only simulation we have is the battle itself (though i like the VR idea)...

thanx for thought provoking link, chase...

stats like yards per attempt don't exist in a vacuum, so to speak, so i was thinking of ways different inherent attributes or traits were connected to it, as well as potential surrounding forces & variables...

lack of some traits, like arm strength & accuracy, would fall into the category of intrinsic flaws... other issues could arise from poor OL, coaching & scheme, etc...

clearly if a QB has a weak arm, that could impact negatively on yards per attempt... poor accuracy could also factor in (easier to complete short passes than long ones)... other factors could involve pocket sense, feeling pressure, the ability to move in the pocket to avoid the rush & in some cases move outside it to keep plays alive... tracing things back further, the ability to process information quickly & recognize the open man seems to be unevenly distributed, with some QBs better than others... having the courage & concentration to be in the eye of the hurricane & ignore the chaos around them (while still sensing where the pressure is coming from) & focus downfield is hugely important... having the wiring needed to complete timing based patterns (because you generally can't just sit for five seconds & heave it downfield)...

not only is it complicated to extrapolate potential pro QB success based on college (because the game & participants are so different, & of a higher caliber), even AFTER the fact, when we have seen NFL QBs for a few years, it can be complicated to predict success, as we have to make inferences on intangibles & inner qualities based on flashes & glimpses of how they translate into actual game conditions... it can also be complicated by having to disentangle the many interdependent causes, variables, linkages, connections (an attempt to visually represent the morphology, shape or structure of the search space of this problem/solution would probably look something like a tangled bowl of spaghetti )...

as usual, it might be instructive to turn this thread away from mere theory & also towards practice...

what young QBs look good based on some of the above criteria?

without looking at stats, i've thought for a while matt ryan has "IT" (whatever "IT" is, he's got it)... maybe the jury is still out on flacco, but other than a few typical boneheaded rookie mistakes (the sacks/fumbles in PIT game), i've come away impressed with what i've seen so far...

BTW, not sure if this has been said above, but one aspect of QB that is imo incredibly difficult... not counting himself, there are 21 OTHER players on the field... there are pre-snap reads & keys... than the fun starts when the ball is snapped... all those players are moving, often in different directions (forwards, backwards, sideways, some combination) relative to each other... at different speeds... the QB has to throw in between defenders at at least three levels (DL/LB/DB), he has to fit it into tight windowns & small spaces (over the LB & in front of safety), sometimes splitting three or more defenders... it is hard to overstate the degree of diffilculty of not only seeing all that unfold, but having a sense of where the play is going to unfold INTO (not just where players are NOW, but where they will be in a second or two)... that may well involve god-given talents/genetic abilities... maybe some QBs can get better with training or experience... very likely no amount of training helps others... & at the highest level (a tom brady or joe montana, etc), it seems that there is a separation of inherent ability in these areas that no amount of training can compensate for...

it seems that recognizing these X-factors is still as much if not in fact more art than science, & will probably continue to be for a long time...

 

[Dirty Hairy]

If Tavaris Jackson has no business playing NFL QB ( and I'm not saying he should or should not either way at this point), he should have been filtered BEFORE he got as far as he did to reach a pro team. The logistical system and framework in place is not conducive or practical to that end. Gekko.

I think he was filtered by most NFL evaluators and slotted into a 4-7th round pick. Minny brass fell ill with the same virus we fantasy players get sometimes - a serious case of man love. Our glasses are so rose-colored, we cannot see reality.

 

[culdeus]

If Tavaris Jackson has no business playing NFL QB ( and I'm not saying he should or should not either way at this point), he should have been filtered BEFORE he got as far as he did to reach a pro team. The logistical system and framework in place is not conducive or practical to that end. Gekko.

I think he was filtered by most NFL evaluators and slotted into a 4-7th round pick. Minny brass fell ill with the same virus we fantasy players get sometimes - a serious case of man love. Our glasses are so rose-colored, we cannot see reality.

See: Quincy Carter

 

[TommyGilmore]

If Tavaris Jackson has no business playing NFL QB ( and I'm not saying he should or should not either way at this point), he should have been filtered BEFORE he got as far as he did to reach a pro team. The logistical system and framework in place is not conducive or practical to that end. Gekko.

I think he was filtered by most NFL evaluators and slotted into a 4-7th round pick. Minny brass fell ill with the same virus we fantasy players get sometimes - a serious case of man love. Our glasses are so rose-colored, we cannot see reality.

See: Quincy Carter

I always thought that race played a role in the Quincy Carter selection. Jerry Jones saw Michael Vick go #1 overall, and he thought to himself, "I'm gonna get me one of them quick colored quarterbacks for myself!" So he grabbed the first black quarterback he could find and then assumed that he could turn him into Vick Jr.

 

[Bri]

i read once that coming out of college, two key factors that correlated to future NFL success were starts (i think, maybe wins) & accuracy (completion %)...

so, back to jackson...

most QBs, with few exceptions, struggle early... but it seems like the NATURE of the struggles has to do with the speed & complexity of the game, a lack of knowledge & experience... this could lead to holding the ball too long, taking unnecessary sacks, making dumb throw into coverage...

the alarming issue with jackson, is even when he has had time, whether through good blocking or keeping the play alive with his feet, he has still been appalingly inaccurate... this is his third year in the league...

this prompts a few questions for me...

is a lack of accuracy generally a death blow precursor to a young QBs career?

are there many examples of QBs that were wildly inaccurate earlier in their career & than at some point BECAME accurate?

* interestingly (to me at least), if we use mcnabb as a measuring stick in terms of how jackson has tracked as far as his developmental curve (jackson was supposed to be childress' mcnabb), in his first five seasons, mcnabb had an unimpressive 49%, 58%, 57%, 58% & 57%... in HIS first three seasons, jackson is at 58%, 58% & 51%...

I think it comes down to confidence moreso than anything else. We've seen a number of great prospects get beaten up pretty badly by sacks and eventually don't even look like a good prospect. Joey Harrington's 400 yard (I'm just gonna sling it) game in Miami is a fairly good example of that. I thought Couch looked pretty good as a rook and 2nd year QB throwing to KJ. Cade McKown(sp?) got pretty arrogant and just stupid with his play; he'd be another extreme. He too looked good as a young player though.

To be confident obviously involves knowledge of the game, comfort level with playbook, WRs, and speed of the game etc. but they gotta throw. That's what these guys whole highschool and college career is based upon. Let em' use that arm. Now that Harbaugh is finally letting Flacco throw some more, I think he looks noticably more comfy(not better).

NFLE coaches used to have issues with getting young guys to throw. They got gunshy being in the doldrums of an NFL depth chart. I remember reading about Mike Chan wanting them to throw explaining it pretty much like you've gotta give me something to coach, something to show you to improve upon. Once they're throwing, a coach can talk about reads and timing and not staring down the WR and not holding onto it too long and all sorts of things. Many QBs came out of NFLE significantly better.

I posted here a month or so ago Chris Redman, Kyle Boller, and Joe Flacco's stats. They were all pretty close and (at the time) never got to use their arm really. Every one of them was a decent prospect.

(mentioned earlier about TB) Steve Young's USFL days got him back to throwing and all.

This guy http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SmitAk00.htm was one of the best athletes ever at QB(to try and stretch to find a comparison like not throwing the ball to Vernon Davis) and he was done so quick because they took his arm away. He was a decent runner too but ya can't tell by how they used him either.

I really believe there's something to letting them use their arm, that they have all this pride in, to get the confidence up. I'd much rather see a rook throw for 3200 yards with 30 INTs and 12 TDs than 2000 yards 12 TDs 12INTS. I'm very confident year two would be better for the first example.

 

[Bri]

If Tavaris Jackson has no business playing NFL QB ( and I'm not saying he should or should not either way at this point), he should have been filtered BEFORE he got as far as he did to reach a pro team. The logistical system and framework in place is not conducive or practical to that end. Gekko.

I think he was filtered by most NFL evaluators and slotted into a 4-7th round pick. Minny brass fell ill with the same virus we fantasy players get sometimes - a serious case of man love. Our glasses are so rose-colored, we cannot see reality.

See: Quincy Carter

I always thought that race played a role in the Quincy Carter selection. Jerry Jones saw Michael Vick go #1 overall, and he thought to himself, "I'm gonna get me one of them quick colored quarterbacks for myself!" So he grabbed the first black quarterback he could find and then assumed that he could turn him into Vick Jr.

I don't believe race had anything to do with it and actually think that's pretty silly about Vick Jr.Quincy acted like an idiot and followed that up with arrests. He ended his own career.He was a young QB that led his team to the playoffs. He had far more potential than people around here admit. 3rd year, 1st full year starting, they made the playoffs, he threw for 3300 yards, nearly 60%...not bad for that. He had more INTs than TDs and there's some negatives sure but....he was a fine youngster with a potentially decent career when he ended it.

 

[TommyGilmore]

If Tavaris Jackson has no business playing NFL QB ( and I'm not saying he should or should not either way at this point), he should have been filtered BEFORE he got as far as he did to reach a pro team. The logistical system and framework in place is not conducive or practical to that end. Gekko.

I think he was filtered by most NFL evaluators and slotted into a 4-7th round pick. Minny brass fell ill with the same virus we fantasy players get sometimes - a serious case of man love. Our glasses are so rose-colored, we cannot see reality.

See: Quincy Carter

I always thought that race played a role in the Quincy Carter selection. Jerry Jones saw Michael Vick go #1 overall, and he thought to himself, "I'm gonna get me one of them quick colored quarterbacks for myself!" So he grabbed the first black quarterback he could find and then assumed that he could turn him into Vick Jr.

I don't believe race had anything to do with it and actually think that's pretty silly about Vick Jr.

Dallas spent their first pick on a guy who was projected to go in the 4th round or later. You don't think Vick had an influence on that decision?

 

[Bri]

If Tavaris Jackson has no business playing NFL QB ( and I'm not saying he should or should not either way at this point), he should have been filtered BEFORE he got as far as he did to reach a pro team. The logistical system and framework in place is not conducive or practical to that end. Gekko.

I think he was filtered by most NFL evaluators and slotted into a 4-7th round pick. Minny brass fell ill with the same virus we fantasy players get sometimes - a serious case of man love. Our glasses are so rose-colored, we cannot see reality.

See: Quincy Carter

I always thought that race played a role in the Quincy Carter selection. Jerry Jones saw Michael Vick go #1 overall, and he thought to himself, "I'm gonna get me one of them quick colored quarterbacks for myself!" So he grabbed the first black quarterback he could find and then assumed that he could turn him into Vick Jr.

I don't believe race had anything to do with it and actually think that's pretty silly about Vick Jr.

Dallas spent their first pick on a guy who was projected to go in the 4th round or later. You don't think Vick had an influence on that decision?

I answerred your QThe "black QB stigma" was done with Doug Williams but some racists like to propagate that line of thinking since then