Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

Player Page Link: Aaron Rodgers Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[rzrback77]

Aaron Rodgers has two years as the starting QB for the Packers and he has finished as the #2 and then #1 fantasy QB. He has everything that he needs to succeed as a fantasy QB. He has a very solid receiving corps that provides him with multiple options, Jennings - Driver- James Jones at WR, Finley at TE, and decent receiving RBs in Grant and Jackson. He has some speed and ability to run as witnessed by his 511 rushing yards and 9 TDs over two seasons.

His completion percentage was 63.6% in his first year as a starter and went up to 64.7% last year. His yards per attempt was solid at 7.5 in 08 and climbed to 8.2 last year. His TDs went up from 28 to 30, while his ints dropped from 13 to 7. A year ago, he was rushed unmercifully and yet still managed outstanding production and his Offensive Line should be improved.

Even if Donald Driver finally starts to lose a step, the Packers have solid depth in stand-by mode with Jones and Nelson. At this point, all systems are go for Aaron Rodgers. Its only a matter if you are ready and willing to pull the trigger soon enough. His current ADP is QB 1 and 9 overall, so it will take a heavy commitment to land him on your roster.

Aaron Rodgers 16 gms 360 comp 550 65.5% for 4400 yards 8.0 ypa 30 TDs and 8 ints with 240 yards rushing and 4 TDs

 

[Jason Wood]

The whacky thing about Rodgers is his rushing productivity. I've seen a lot of people make the case that Rodgers should be in a tier of his own atop the standings, pointing to the fact he gets elite passing numbers but also stealthily throws in meaningful rushing tallies, too. The real question we need to ask ourselves is how random has his last two seasons been in terms of the ground game?

2008 -- 56 rushes for 207 yards and 4 TDs

2009 -- 58 rushes for 318 yards and 5 TDs

All that, while throwing for 4,000+ yards in each season.

Here are the NFL QBs in league history that have thrown for 4,000+ yards and rushed for 4+ TDs in the same season:

Jeff Garcia -- 2000

Don Jamkowski -- 1989

Peyton Manning -- 2001

Peyton Manning -- 2006

Scott Mitchell -- 1995

Aaron Rodgers -- 2008

Aaron Rodgers -- 2009

Steve Young -- 1998

Now there are nuances to this list. The first thing that strikes me is the presence of Peyton Manning, TWICE. I've been playing fantasy football and writing for Footballguys for the entirely of Manning's career and I would be lying if I said I recalled his ever rushing for 4 TDs, much less having done so twice. But a quick glance at Manning's stats tells you that he's a different beast. In one of those years, his 4 TDs came on a whopping 36 rushing yards and the other season he ran 35 times for 157 yards.

Rodgers has run 50+ times for a much higher average, and is 2-for-2 in seasons as a starter doing so.

So out of curiosity, I changed the screen and looked instead at 4,000 yard passers with 50+ rushing attempts in the season.

Mark Brunell -- 1996

Daunte Culpepper -- 2004

Jay Cutler -- 2008

Rich Gannon -- 2002

Jeff Garcia -- 2000

Don Majkowski -- 1989

Warren Moon -- 1990

Jake Plummer -- 2004

Aaron Rodgers -- 2008

Aaron Rodgers -- 2009

Steve Young -- 1993

Steve Young -- 1998

A more interesting list of players, and more indicative of athletic passers that one might compare Rodgers to if asked for comparable analogs. But what's interesting is that only Steve Young has thrown for 4,000 yards and had 50+ rushing attempts more than once, aside from Rodgers. So understand that Rodgers will be breaking new NFL ground if he continues with his current rushing prowess.

 

[Go deep]

In redraft i prefer Brees and Manning slightly to Rodgers, although i would be happy with any of the 3. Rodgers outcored Manning and Brees last year, but Manning and Brees also sat out the last 1.5 games, otherwise their total points would have been almost the same. The one ting that scares me about Rodgers is the same thing that gives him an advantage over the other QB's, and thats his running. Im not big into injury proness, but i feel safer with Brees or Manning than i do Rodgers. Not only does Rodgers run more, but he also gets sacked more.

Its unlikely i end up with any of these three in redrafts this year considering where they will be taken, although i do have Rodgers in a keeper league.

329/520 4056 yards, 28 TD's, 9 Ints., 52 car., 219 yards, 2 TD's

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

GODMODE

 

[buster c]

But what's interesting is that only Steve Rodgers has thrown for 4,000 yards and had 50+ rushing attempts more than once, aside from Rodgers. So understand that Rodgers will be breaking new NFL ground if he continues with his current rushing prowess.

Steve Rogersthis guy?

 

[baconisgood]

The whacky thing about Rodgers is his rushing productivity. I've seen a lot of people make the case that Rodgers should be in a tier of his own atop the standings, pointing to the fact he gets elite passing numbers but also stealthily throws in meaningful rushing tallies, too. The real question we need to ask ourselves is how random has his last two seasons been in terms of the ground game? 2008 -- 56 rushes for 207 yards and 4 TDs2009 -- 58 rushes for 318 yards and 5 TDsAll that, while throwing for 4,000+ yards in each season.Here are the NFL QBs in league history that have thrown for 4,000+ yards and rushed for 4+ TDs in the same season:Jeff Garcia -- 2000Don Jamkowski -- 1989Peyton Manning -- 2001Peyton Manning -- 2006Scott Mitchell -- 1995Aaron Rodgers -- 2008Aaron Rodgers -- 2009Steve Young -- 1998Now there are nuances to this list. The first thing that strikes me is the presence of Peyton Manning, TWICE. I've been playing fantasy football and writing for Footballguys for the entirely of Manning's career and I would be lying if I said I recalled his ever rushing for 4 TDs, much less having done so twice. But a quick glance at Manning's stats tells you that he's a different beast. In one of those years, his 4 TDs came on a whopping 36 rushing yards and the other season he ran 35 times for 157 yards. Rodgers has run 50+ times for a much higher average, and is 2-for-2 in seasons as a starter doing so.So out of curiosity, I changed the screen and looked instead at 4,000 yard passers with 50+ rushing attempts in the season.Mark Brunell -- 1996Daunte Culpepper -- 2004Jay Cutler -- 2008Rich Gannon -- 2002Jeff Garcia -- 2000Don Majkowski -- 1989Warren Moon -- 1990Jake Plummer -- 2004Aaron Rodgers -- 2008Aaron Rodgers -- 2009Steve Young -- 1993Steve Young -- 1998A more interesting list of players, and more indicative of athletic passers that one might compare Rodgers to if asked for comparable analogs. But what's interesting is that only Steve Rodgers has thrown for 4,000 yards and had 50+ rushing attempts more than once, aside from Rodgers. So understand that Rodgers will be breaking new NFL ground if he continues with his current rushing prowess.

If you drop your requirements to 3750 yards and 40 rushes you get a much larger picture- 42 individual seasons have occurred. Importantly Steve Young's 3969 passing yards in 1994 missed your mark by 1.2 fantasy points in terms of passing but would have given him b2b seasons. Culpepper missed the cut by 63 yards but crushed the rushing requirements (480 yards and 7 tds) in 2000 and was 157 passing yards off in 2002 but again crushed the rushing requirements (609 + 10). Culpepper was also on pace for 3976 yards passing in the 14 games he played in 2003 and again would have crushed the rushing requirement. If you made the passing requirement 3799 yards Culpepper has a 5 years stretch where he beats it or is on pace to beat it through a significant portion of the season- and his rushing total are MUCH higher than Rodgers'. Our expanded list also includes Drew Bledsoe TWICE, John Elway 3 times, Joe Montana twice and Aaron Brooks twice- along with a bunch of 1 timers (just scanned the list, may have missed another repeat or two).EDIT: Rich Gannon 3 times.

 

[Jason Wood]

But what's interesting is that only Steve Rodgers has thrown for 4,000 yards and had 50+ rushing attempts more than once, aside from Rodgers. So understand that Rodgers will be breaking new NFL ground if he continues with his current rushing prowess.

Steve Rogersthis guy?

I do indeed have comic books on the brain

 

[Jason Wood]

The whacky thing about Rodgers is his rushing productivity. I've seen a lot of people make the case that Rodgers should be in a tier of his own atop the standings, pointing to the fact he gets elite passing numbers but also stealthily throws in meaningful rushing tallies, too. The real question we need to ask ourselves is how random has his last two seasons been in terms of the ground game? 2008 -- 56 rushes for 207 yards and 4 TDs2009 -- 58 rushes for 318 yards and 5 TDsAll that, while throwing for 4,000+ yards in each season.Here are the NFL QBs in league history that have thrown for 4,000+ yards and rushed for 4+ TDs in the same season:Jeff Garcia -- 2000Don Jamkowski -- 1989Peyton Manning -- 2001Peyton Manning -- 2006Scott Mitchell -- 1995Aaron Rodgers -- 2008Aaron Rodgers -- 2009Steve Young -- 1998Now there are nuances to this list. The first thing that strikes me is the presence of Peyton Manning, TWICE. I've been playing fantasy football and writing for Footballguys for the entirely of Manning's career and I would be lying if I said I recalled his ever rushing for 4 TDs, much less having done so twice. But a quick glance at Manning's stats tells you that he's a different beast. In one of those years, his 4 TDs came on a whopping 36 rushing yards and the other season he ran 35 times for 157 yards. Rodgers has run 50+ times for a much higher average, and is 2-for-2 in seasons as a starter doing so.So out of curiosity, I changed the screen and looked instead at 4,000 yard passers with 50+ rushing attempts in the season.Mark Brunell -- 1996Daunte Culpepper -- 2004Jay Cutler -- 2008Rich Gannon -- 2002Jeff Garcia -- 2000Don Majkowski -- 1989Warren Moon -- 1990Jake Plummer -- 2004Aaron Rodgers -- 2008Aaron Rodgers -- 2009Steve Young -- 1993Steve Young -- 1998A more interesting list of players, and more indicative of athletic passers that one might compare Rodgers to if asked for comparable analogs. But what's interesting is that only Steve Rodgers has thrown for 4,000 yards and had 50+ rushing attempts more than once, aside from Rodgers. So understand that Rodgers will be breaking new NFL ground if he continues with his current rushing prowess.

If you drop your requirements to 3750 yards and 40 rushes you get a much larger picture- 42 individual seasons have occurred. Importantly Steve Young's 3969 passing yards in 1994 missed your mark by 1.2 fantasy points in terms of passing but would have given him b2b seasons. Culpepper missed the cut by 63 yards but crushed the rushing requirements (480 yards and 7 tds) in 2000 and was 157 passing yards off in 2002 but again crushed the rushing requirements (609 + 10). Culpepper was also on pace for 3976 yards passing in the 14 games he played in 2003 and again would have crushed the rushing requirement. If you made the passing requirement 3799 yards Culpepper has a 5 years stretch where he beats it or is on pace to beat it through a significant portion of the season- and his rushing total are MUCH higher than Rodgers'. Our expanded list also includes Drew Bledsoe TWICE, John Elway 3 times, Joe Montana twice and Aaron Brooks twice- along with a bunch of 1 timers (just scanned the list, may have missed another repeat or two).EDIT: Rich Gannon 3 times.

No question. But let's remember that almost no one (at least anyone that's a believer in Rodgers) expects less than 4,000 yards passing this year. I know I personally feel a LOT more confident in his achieving that mark again in 2010 than I do 4-5 rushing TDs (I'm projecting him for 3 right now which is kind of a cheat...it could just as easily be 1 or 2).

 

[baconisgood]

The whacky thing about Rodgers is his rushing productivity. I've seen a lot of people make the case that Rodgers should be in a tier of his own atop the standings, pointing to the fact he gets elite passing numbers but also stealthily throws in meaningful rushing tallies, too. The real question we need to ask ourselves is how random has his last two seasons been in terms of the ground game? 2008 -- 56 rushes for 207 yards and 4 TDs2009 -- 58 rushes for 318 yards and 5 TDsAll that, while throwing for 4,000+ yards in each season.Here are the NFL QBs in league history that have thrown for 4,000+ yards and rushed for 4+ TDs in the same season:Jeff Garcia -- 2000Don Jamkowski -- 1989Peyton Manning -- 2001Peyton Manning -- 2006Scott Mitchell -- 1995Aaron Rodgers -- 2008Aaron Rodgers -- 2009Steve Young -- 1998Now there are nuances to this list. The first thing that strikes me is the presence of Peyton Manning, TWICE. I've been playing fantasy football and writing for Footballguys for the entirely of Manning's career and I would be lying if I said I recalled his ever rushing for 4 TDs, much less having done so twice. But a quick glance at Manning's stats tells you that he's a different beast. In one of those years, his 4 TDs came on a whopping 36 rushing yards and the other season he ran 35 times for 157 yards. Rodgers has run 50+ times for a much higher average, and is 2-for-2 in seasons as a starter doing so.So out of curiosity, I changed the screen and looked instead at 4,000 yard passers with 50+ rushing attempts in the season.Mark Brunell -- 1996Daunte Culpepper -- 2004Jay Cutler -- 2008Rich Gannon -- 2002Jeff Garcia -- 2000Don Majkowski -- 1989Warren Moon -- 1990Jake Plummer -- 2004Aaron Rodgers -- 2008Aaron Rodgers -- 2009Steve Young -- 1993Steve Young -- 1998A more interesting list of players, and more indicative of athletic passers that one might compare Rodgers to if asked for comparable analogs. But what's interesting is that only Steve Rodgers has thrown for 4,000 yards and had 50+ rushing attempts more than once, aside from Rodgers. So understand that Rodgers will be breaking new NFL ground if he continues with his current rushing prowess.

If you drop your requirements to 3750 yards and 40 rushes you get a much larger picture- 42 individual seasons have occurred. Importantly Steve Young's 3969 passing yards in 1994 missed your mark by 1.2 fantasy points in terms of passing but would have given him b2b seasons. Culpepper missed the cut by 63 yards but crushed the rushing requirements (480 yards and 7 tds) in 2000 and was 157 passing yards off in 2002 but again crushed the rushing requirements (609 + 10). Culpepper was also on pace for 3976 yards passing in the 14 games he played in 2003 and again would have crushed the rushing requirement. If you made the passing requirement 3799 yards Culpepper has a 5 years stretch where he beats it or is on pace to beat it through a significant portion of the season- and his rushing total are MUCH higher than Rodgers'. Our expanded list also includes Drew Bledsoe TWICE, John Elway 3 times, Joe Montana twice and Aaron Brooks twice- along with a bunch of 1 timers (just scanned the list, may have missed another repeat or two).EDIT: Rich Gannon 3 times.

No question. But let's remember that almost no one (at least anyone that's a believer in Rodgers) expects less than 4,000 yards passing this year. I know I personally feel a LOT more confident in his achieving that mark again in 2010 than I do 4-5 rushing TDs (I'm projecting him for 3 right now which is kind of a cheat...it could just as easily be 1 or 2).

I think the point is that once you get to guys with Rodgers' ability you have such a small sample size you don't want to look at rigid cutoffs, how many players have thrown for over 4,000 yards in their first 2 seasons as a starter anyway? Once guys earn the top fantasy QB spot how many times do they unearn it? Other than horrific knee injuries to Palmer, Culpepper and Brady- how many guys became a top QB pick and didn't end up top 3 the next season?

 

[Jason Wood]

The whacky thing about Rodgers is his rushing productivity. I've seen a lot of people make the case that Rodgers should be in a tier of his own atop the standings, pointing to the fact he gets elite passing numbers but also stealthily throws in meaningful rushing tallies, too. The real question we need to ask ourselves is how random has his last two seasons been in terms of the ground game? 2008 -- 56 rushes for 207 yards and 4 TDs2009 -- 58 rushes for 318 yards and 5 TDsAll that, while throwing for 4,000+ yards in each season.Here are the NFL QBs in league history that have thrown for 4,000+ yards and rushed for 4+ TDs in the same season:Jeff Garcia -- 2000Don Jamkowski -- 1989Peyton Manning -- 2001Peyton Manning -- 2006Scott Mitchell -- 1995Aaron Rodgers -- 2008Aaron Rodgers -- 2009Steve Young -- 1998Now there are nuances to this list. The first thing that strikes me is the presence of Peyton Manning, TWICE. I've been playing fantasy football and writing for Footballguys for the entirely of Manning's career and I would be lying if I said I recalled his ever rushing for 4 TDs, much less having done so twice. But a quick glance at Manning's stats tells you that he's a different beast. In one of those years, his 4 TDs came on a whopping 36 rushing yards and the other season he ran 35 times for 157 yards. Rodgers has run 50+ times for a much higher average, and is 2-for-2 in seasons as a starter doing so.So out of curiosity, I changed the screen and looked instead at 4,000 yard passers with 50+ rushing attempts in the season.Mark Brunell -- 1996Daunte Culpepper -- 2004Jay Cutler -- 2008Rich Gannon -- 2002Jeff Garcia -- 2000Don Majkowski -- 1989Warren Moon -- 1990Jake Plummer -- 2004Aaron Rodgers -- 2008Aaron Rodgers -- 2009Steve Young -- 1993Steve Young -- 1998A more interesting list of players, and more indicative of athletic passers that one might compare Rodgers to if asked for comparable analogs. But what's interesting is that only Steve Rodgers has thrown for 4,000 yards and had 50+ rushing attempts more than once, aside from Rodgers. So understand that Rodgers will be breaking new NFL ground if he continues with his current rushing prowess.

If you drop your requirements to 3750 yards and 40 rushes you get a much larger picture- 42 individual seasons have occurred. Importantly Steve Young's 3969 passing yards in 1994 missed your mark by 1.2 fantasy points in terms of passing but would have given him b2b seasons. Culpepper missed the cut by 63 yards but crushed the rushing requirements (480 yards and 7 tds) in 2000 and was 157 passing yards off in 2002 but again crushed the rushing requirements (609 + 10). Culpepper was also on pace for 3976 yards passing in the 14 games he played in 2003 and again would have crushed the rushing requirement. If you made the passing requirement 3799 yards Culpepper has a 5 years stretch where he beats it or is on pace to beat it through a significant portion of the season- and his rushing total are MUCH higher than Rodgers'. Our expanded list also includes Drew Bledsoe TWICE, John Elway 3 times, Joe Montana twice and Aaron Brooks twice- along with a bunch of 1 timers (just scanned the list, may have missed another repeat or two).EDIT: Rich Gannon 3 times.

No question. But let's remember that almost no one (at least anyone that's a believer in Rodgers) expects less than 4,000 yards passing this year. I know I personally feel a LOT more confident in his achieving that mark again in 2010 than I do 4-5 rushing TDs (I'm projecting him for 3 right now which is kind of a cheat...it could just as easily be 1 or 2).

I think the point is that once you get to guys with Rodgers' ability you have such a small sample size you don't want to look at rigid cutoffs, how many players have thrown for over 4,000 yards in their first 2 seasons as a starter anyway? Once guys earn the top fantasy QB spot how many times do they unearn it? Other than horrific knee injuries to Palmer, Culpepper and Brady- how many guys became a top QB pick and didn't end up top 3 the next season?

No one is arguing that Which is why I have Rodgers atop my QB rankings currently. What I'm trying to think through is "where could we (meaning the consensus) be wrong?" Every QB runs the risk of injury, so that's not a reason to downgrade him any more than any other QB. But where are the white spaces in the consensus logic that might need to be rethought? To me, the most glaring place where Rodgers could fall short of expectations is the presumption that his 9 rushing TDs in two seasons is the kind of thing that will continue apace. I hope it does, and it'll make his earning the QB1 ranking all the easier, but I certainly think it's far more likely his rushing totals leave people scratching their heads than I expect his passing totals (over a 16-game schedule) to fall well short of the mark.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

As I said 2 years ago, the Packers knew exactly what they were doing when they let Brett Farve go. Farve has played well but they couldn't let this talent leave so that they could play the games Farve plays every offseason. The Packers are close to being an elite team. There defense is solid, the running games is improving and it looks like they now have a very good TE to throw toin the red zone.

Aaron Rodgers is big, strong and quite simply can make some throws that other QB in the league can't make right now. Rodgers is the most dangerous QB in the league to opposing defenses. The guy can run for first downs and make 30 yard out passes off his back foot.

4100 yards passing 32 td with 15 int's

400 yards rushing with 4 td's 1 fumble

 

[34=Sweetness]

Perfect storm at QB. Young, strong arm, mobile, great weapons, high powered WR-based spread system.

4100 yards, 33 TDs, 10 INTs, 275 rushing yards, 3 TDs. Figure he will be running a bit less with better protection around him, but hes going to finish as the clear cut #1 barring some kind of ludicrous season from Brees or Manning.

 

[J-Dawg]

There's no secret of my love for Aaron Rodgers and my view that he's one of the best dynasty players in the league right now and somebody that you can no question build a team around. I don't see him continuing to put up the great rushing numbers, but I don't see him getting significantly less either. His passing stats should hover close to the same as his first two years and given his age he's clearly the top QB in dynasty.

4100 yards, 29 TDs, 10 INTs

300 yards rushing, 3 TDs