Addai next year (1 Viewer)

[pizzatyme]

Barring injury, what is not to get excited about Addai? Who is the board Injury Prognosticator?

Addai is suited to have a great year. Again, barring injury!

My guess is the Colts go RB in the draft. No need to burn the cap $'s when backup RB's can be had on the cheap.

 

[Tau837]

Recent post on Addai:

...As for Addai, here is an interesting look at his performance:1st 8 games: 105/490/2 rushing (4.7 ypc), 19/144/1 receiving (7.6 ypr) on 26 targets, 10.2 fppg (no PPR)2nd 8 games: 121/591/5 rushing (4.9 ypc), 21/181/0 receiving (8.6 ypr) on 24 targets, 13.4 fppg (no PPR)4 playoff games: 76/294/2 rushing (3.9 ypc), 22/118/0 receiving (5.4 ypr) on 23 targets, 13.3 fppg (no PPR)First off, he averaged double figure fantasy points in each stretch... very solid. Secondly, look at how he improved his ypc and ypr in the second half as his workload increased, albeit slightly.Also, look at how his carries and targets went up in the playoffs:13.1 carries per game in 1st 8 games, 15.1 carries per game in second 8 games, 19 carries per game in the playoffs3.3 targets per game in 1st 8 games, 3.0 targets per game in second 8 games, 5.8 targets per game in the playoffsCould this carry over? Probably not at these levels--19 carries and 5.8 targets per game would be 304 carries and 93 receptions... but his usage could certainly go up given the success he had this year, even if Rhodes stays.ETA: For those who might criticize his ypc and ypr in the playoffs, I meant to mention that he played KC, BAL, NE, CHI. Given that, his performance is pretty impressive IMO.By the way, FBGs, I'd like to request that you not lump playoff games into second half splits... it would be nice to have 3 splits for playoff players, just as I broke it out above.

ETA: Obviously, this was all *with* Rhodes, so I think Addai can obviously provide great value even if he returns.

 

[Family Matters]

Recent post on Addai:

...As for Addai, here is an interesting look at his performance:1st 8 games: 105/490/2 rushing (4.7 ypc), 19/144/1 receiving (7.6 ypr) on 26 targets, 10.2 fppg (no PPR)2nd 8 games: 121/591/5 rushing (4.9 ypc), 21/181/0 receiving (8.6 ypr) on 24 targets, 13.4 fppg (no PPR)4 playoff games: 76/294/2 rushing (3.9 ypc), 22/118/0 receiving (5.4 ypr) on 23 targets, 13.3 fppg (no PPR)First off, he averaged double figure fantasy points in each stretch... very solid. Secondly, look at how he improved his ypc and ypr in the second half as his workload increased, albeit slightly.Also, look at how his carries and targets went up in the playoffs:13.1 carries per game in 1st 8 games, 15.1 carries per game in second 8 games, 19 carries per game in the playoffs3.3 targets per game in 1st 8 games, 3.0 targets per game in second 8 games, 5.8 targets per game in the playoffsCould this carry over? Probably not at these levels--19 carries and 5.8 targets per game would be 304 carries and 93 receptions... but his usage could certainly go up given the success he had this year, even if Rhodes stays.ETA: For those who might criticize his ypc and ypr in the playoffs, I meant to mention that he played KC, BAL, NE, CHI. Given that, his performance is pretty impressive IMO.By the way, FBGs, I'd like to request that you not lump playoff games into second half splits... it would be nice to have 3 splits for playoff players, just as I broke it out above.

ETA: Obviously, this was all *with* Rhodes, so I think Addai can obviously provide great value even if he returns.

I think you've done a great job of demonstrating what he's capable of. Of course there are some on this board that say stats are meaningless. Looking forward, if Rhodes is gone you'd logically think Addai's touches would increase. I agree with your observations. In fact if you look at his playoff numbers his 76 rushing attempts equate to 304 for a season and 88 receptions. While I think his receptions willl be lower than 88 I can see 70. It's worth noting that Stokely was released and someone has to absorb his targets. Perhaps that explains Addai's numbers somewhat. Addai and Clark are appear to be absorbing his targets with Clark being the one stretching the middle. The 304 rushing attempts are very likely to occur. Assumming a 4.5 YPC that would be 1368 yards. 10+ TD's is also likely.

 

[Tau837]

Recent post on Addai:

...As for Addai, here is an interesting look at his performance:1st 8 games: 105/490/2 rushing (4.7 ypc), 19/144/1 receiving (7.6 ypr) on 26 targets, 10.2 fppg (no PPR)2nd 8 games: 121/591/5 rushing (4.9 ypc), 21/181/0 receiving (8.6 ypr) on 24 targets, 13.4 fppg (no PPR)4 playoff games: 76/294/2 rushing (3.9 ypc), 22/118/0 receiving (5.4 ypr) on 23 targets, 13.3 fppg (no PPR)First off, he averaged double figure fantasy points in each stretch... very solid. Secondly, look at how he improved his ypc and ypr in the second half as his workload increased, albeit slightly.Also, look at how his carries and targets went up in the playoffs:13.1 carries per game in 1st 8 games, 15.1 carries per game in second 8 games, 19 carries per game in the playoffs3.3 targets per game in 1st 8 games, 3.0 targets per game in second 8 games, 5.8 targets per game in the playoffsCould this carry over? Probably not at these levels--19 carries and 5.8 targets per game would be 304 carries and 93 receptions... but his usage could certainly go up given the success he had this year, even if Rhodes stays.ETA: For those who might criticize his ypc and ypr in the playoffs, I meant to mention that he played KC, BAL, NE, CHI. Given that, his performance is pretty impressive IMO.By the way, FBGs, I'd like to request that you not lump playoff games into second half splits... it would be nice to have 3 splits for playoff players, just as I broke it out above.

ETA: Obviously, this was all *with* Rhodes, so I think Addai can obviously provide great value even if he returns.

I think you've done a great job of demonstrating what he's capable of. Of course there are some on this board that say stats are meaningless. Looking forward, if Rhodes is gone you'd logically think Addai's touches would increase. I agree with your observations. In fact if you look at his playoff numbers his 76 rushing attempts equate to 304 for a season and 88 receptions. While I think his receptions willl be lower than 88 I can see 70. It's worth noting that Stokely was released and someone has to absorb his targets. Perhaps that explains Addai's numbers somewhat. Addai and Clark are appear to be absorbing his targets with Clark being the one stretching the middle. The 304 rushing attempts are very likely to occur. Assumming a 4.5 YPC that would be 1368 yards. 10+ TD's is also likely.

If I were to project, I'd be a bit more conservative. Looking at his last 12 games, including the playoffs, and projecting to 16 games gives 263 carries and 57 catches. So I'd probably go with 260/1150 rushing and 55/385 receiving. With 8 total TDs, that's 201.5 fantasy points (no PPR), which last season would have ranked 10th. But he clearly has upside above that. I don't see much downside, barring injury.

 

[Family Matters]

Recent post on Addai:

...As for Addai, here is an interesting look at his performance:

1st 8 games: 105/490/2 rushing (4.7 ypc), 19/144/1 receiving (7.6 ypr) on 26 targets, 10.2 fppg (no PPR)

2nd 8 games: 121/591/5 rushing (4.9 ypc), 21/181/0 receiving (8.6 ypr) on 24 targets, 13.4 fppg (no PPR)

4 playoff games: 76/294/2 rushing (3.9 ypc), 22/118/0 receiving (5.4 ypr) on 23 targets, 13.3 fppg (no PPR)

First off, he averaged double figure fantasy points in each stretch... very solid. Secondly, look at how he improved his ypc and ypr in the second half as his workload increased, albeit slightly.

Also, look at how his carries and targets went up in the playoffs:

13.1 carries per game in 1st 8 games, 15.1 carries per game in second 8 games, 19 carries per game in the playoffs

3.3 targets per game in 1st 8 games, 3.0 targets per game in second 8 games, 5.8 targets per game in the playoffs

Could this carry over? Probably not at these levels--19 carries and 5.8 targets per game would be 304 carries and 93 receptions... but his usage could certainly go up given the success he had this year, even if Rhodes stays.

ETA: For those who might criticize his ypc and ypr in the playoffs, I meant to mention that he played KC, BAL, NE, CHI. Given that, his performance is pretty impressive IMO.

By the way, FBGs, I'd like to request that you not lump playoff games into second half splits... it would be nice to have 3 splits for playoff players, just as I broke it out above.

ETA: Obviously, this was all *with* Rhodes, so I think Addai can obviously provide great value even if he returns.

I think you've done a great job of demonstrating what he's capable of. Of course there are some on this board that say stats are meaningless. Looking forward, if Rhodes is gone you'd logically think Addai's touches would increase. I agree with your observations. In fact if you look at his playoff numbers his 76 rushing attempts equate to 304 for a season and 88 receptions. While I think his receptions willl be lower than 88 I can see 70. It's worth noting that Stokely was released and someone has to absorb his targets. Perhaps that explains Addai's numbers somewhat. Addai and Clark are appear to be absorbing his targets with Clark being the one stretching the middle. The 304 rushing attempts are very likely to occur. Assumming a 4.5 YPC that would be 1368 yards. 10+ TD's is also likely.

If I were to project, I'd be a bit more conservative. Looking at his last 12 games, including the playoffs, and projecting to 16 games gives 263 carries and 57 catches. So I'd probably go with 260/1150 rushing and 55/385 receiving. With 8 total TDs, that's 201.5 fantasy points (no PPR), which last season would have ranked 10th. But he clearly has upside above that. I don't see much downside, barring injury.

Fair enough and I can't knock your projections at all.This brings up an interesting point about doing projections. From my observation, FBG's and others tend to project conservatively. And that's not a bad thing. My approach is a little different. I project what I think a player will actually do. If you look back to Faulk, Holmes and LT you'd see that following great years they were projected much more conservatively than I would have and then what they did. I understand why but I like to see what a guy will do when forcast to his potential. When it comes to guys like LT they have the ability to score way above the conservative estimates frequently forcast for them. Of course if they hit their conservative numbers they wouldn't be as good. But there's a reason they usually blow those conservative numbers away. They're better than most.

To bring this back around to my point, if you use VBD then having closer to actual numbers provides the real value of guys like LT. If you knew that LT was going to do as well as he did last year you'd probably gladly give your 1st and 2nd rounds pick for the #1. It would be worth it. But his VBD would be much lower with a conservative projection and his real value hidden among the top 5. Of course this works the other way as well. Having good projections makes all the difference.

BTW-my projection 7/3/2006 for Addai was 240-1152-8 (4.8 ypc) and 24-204-1 (8.5).

His actual numbers were 226-1081-7 (4.8 ypc) and 40-325-1 (8.1).

This can be verified here at the Player Spotlight thread: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=249644

 

[Tau837]

Recent post on Addai:

...As for Addai, here is an interesting look at his performance:1st 8 games: 105/490/2 rushing (4.7 ypc), 19/144/1 receiving (7.6 ypr) on 26 targets, 10.2 fppg (no PPR)2nd 8 games: 121/591/5 rushing (4.9 ypc), 21/181/0 receiving (8.6 ypr) on 24 targets, 13.4 fppg (no PPR)4 playoff games: 76/294/2 rushing (3.9 ypc), 22/118/0 receiving (5.4 ypr) on 23 targets, 13.3 fppg (no PPR)First off, he averaged double figure fantasy points in each stretch... very solid. Secondly, look at how he improved his ypc and ypr in the second half as his workload increased, albeit slightly.Also, look at how his carries and targets went up in the playoffs:13.1 carries per game in 1st 8 games, 15.1 carries per game in second 8 games, 19 carries per game in the playoffs3.3 targets per game in 1st 8 games, 3.0 targets per game in second 8 games, 5.8 targets per game in the playoffsCould this carry over? Probably not at these levels--19 carries and 5.8 targets per game would be 304 carries and 93 receptions... but his usage could certainly go up given the success he had this year, even if Rhodes stays.ETA: For those who might criticize his ypc and ypr in the playoffs, I meant to mention that he played KC, BAL, NE, CHI. Given that, his performance is pretty impressive IMO.By the way, FBGs, I'd like to request that you not lump playoff games into second half splits... it would be nice to have 3 splits for playoff players, just as I broke it out above.

ETA: Obviously, this was all *with* Rhodes, so I think Addai can obviously provide great value even if he returns.

I think you've done a great job of demonstrating what he's capable of. Of course there are some on this board that say stats are meaningless. Looking forward, if Rhodes is gone you'd logically think Addai's touches would increase. I agree with your observations. In fact if you look at his playoff numbers his 76 rushing attempts equate to 304 for a season and 88 receptions. While I think his receptions willl be lower than 88 I can see 70. It's worth noting that Stokely was released and someone has to absorb his targets. Perhaps that explains Addai's numbers somewhat. Addai and Clark are appear to be absorbing his targets with Clark being the one stretching the middle. The 304 rushing attempts are very likely to occur. Assumming a 4.5 YPC that would be 1368 yards. 10+ TD's is also likely.

If I were to project, I'd be a bit more conservative. Looking at his last 12 games, including the playoffs, and projecting to 16 games gives 263 carries and 57 catches. So I'd probably go with 260/1150 rushing and 55/385 receiving. With 8 total TDs, that's 201.5 fantasy points (no PPR), which last season would have ranked 10th. But he clearly has upside above that. I don't see much downside, barring injury.

OK, for the moment Rhodes is gone and there is no one else for RBBC. I'm sure they will bring someone in, but for now I'd have to bump up Addai's numbers and, barring injury, consider him a lock for the top 10.I'd much rather have him than some others being touted, like Henry.

 

[zamboni]

It still remains to be seen what happens in FA and the draft, but Dorsey could be the handcuff this year for Addai owners.

Colts | Dorsey could see more time in 2007

Tue, 20 Mar 2007 07:34:09 -0700

Mike Chappell, of the Indianapolis Star, reports Indianapolis Colts RB DeDe Dorsey may see more time in 2007 with the departure of RB Dominic Rhodes (Raiders) in free agency. The team's coaching staff is high on Dorsey, acquired on waivers from the Cincinnati Bengals in 2006.

 

[djcolts]

It still remains to be seen what happens in FA and the draft, but Dorsey could be the handcuff this year for Addai owners.Colts | Dorsey could see more time in 2007Tue, 20 Mar 2007 07:34:09 -0700Mike Chappell, of the Indianapolis Star, reports Indianapolis Colts RB DeDe Dorsey may see more time in 2007 with the departure of RB Dominic Rhodes (Raiders) in free agency. The team's coaching staff is high on Dorsey, acquired on waivers from the Cincinnati Bengals in 2006.

I think the Colts' draft will tell us a lot more on how serious they are about Dorsey being the #2 RB. I'm guessing a 3rd or 4th round pick will be a RB.

 

[zamboni]

It still remains to be seen what happens in FA and the draft, but Dorsey could be the handcuff this year for Addai owners.Colts | Dorsey could see more time in 2007Tue, 20 Mar 2007 07:34:09 -0700Mike Chappell, of the Indianapolis Star, reports Indianapolis Colts RB DeDe Dorsey may see more time in 2007 with the departure of RB Dominic Rhodes (Raiders) in free agency. The team's coaching staff is high on Dorsey, acquired on waivers from the Cincinnati Bengals in 2006.

I think the Colts' draft will tell us a lot more on how serious they are about Dorsey being the #2 RB. I'm guessing a 3rd or 4th round pick will be a RB.

Certainly sounds reasonable. While Addai won't shoulder the load himself, it's seems increasingly clear that his workload will be quite a bit larger than last year with Rhodes around.

 

[The Contrarian]

Addai owner here. The mocks I have seen have him as high as #6 overall and as low as 12 overall. Top ten overall at season's end is crazy, but we can hope.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

I for one am worried about the Colts running game next season.

The defense is taking multiple hits and could be even more of a liability this next season. Leading to more of a passing attack and shy away from the running game.

Also see Sophomore slump.

Also see Addai has not shouldered the load yet.

 

[The Contrarian]

I for one am worried about the Colts running game next season.The defense is taking multiple hits and could be even more of a liability this next season. Leading to more of a passing attack and shy away from the running game.Also see Sophomore slump.Also see Addai has not shouldered the load yet.

I am not worried about weather or not they are a pass/run team. They will pass, Addai can catch. Point either way. I'd almost rather they were pass heavy to begin the season to take the load off Addai, giving him easy goal line TD's.

 

[duaneok66]

As an lsu homer I would be very wary of Addai, he has shown he can be a powerful all purpose back, but he has had a long history of injury and wearing down repeatedly. Next year will be the first year he has EVER carried the full load of an offense

Two points: 1) the above post is the best of the thread . . .2) It's March people. Indy still has time to get a back to help out Addai . . .

 

[comfortably numb]

| 1998 ind | 16 | 324 1319 4.1 6 | 86 908 10.6 4 || 1999 ind | 16 | 369 1553 4.2 13 | 62 586 9.5 4 || 2000 ind | 16 | 387 1709 4.4 13 | 63 594 9.4 5 || 2001 ind | 6 | 151 662 4.4 3 | 24 193 8.0 0 || 2001 ind | 15 | 233 1104 4.7 9 | 34 224 6.6 0 *| 2002 ind | 14 | 277 989 3.6 2 | 61 354 5.8 1 || 2003 ind | 13 | 310 1259 4.1 11 | 51 292 5.7 0 || 2004 ind | 16 | 334 1548 4.6 9 | 51 483 9.5 0 || 2005 ind | 15 | 360 1506 4.2 13 | 44 337 7.7 1 | 2006 ind | 16 | 226 1081 4.8 7 | 40 325 8.1 1*Rhodes filling in for EDGEI think Addai will put up RB6-RB11 numbers.

I think the Indy's RB output has alot to do with Manning's ability to keep the pressure of the line.

Allowing his RB to gain good chunks of yardage.

Above is the RB output since Manning has beenthe QB

1st year Faulk, last year Addai, everything in between was Edge.

I don't see Addai as the REC threat as Faulk and Edge were, but I think he is very capable of putting up very solid #'s, and could easily be your RB1 from the added benefit of Manning as his QB.

 

[Family Matters]

Addai owner here. The mocks I have seen have him as high as #6 overall and as low as 12 overall. Top ten overall at season's end is crazy, but we can hope.

I think that range is about right. His upside is RB6/7 and getting him anywhere below that is value. I'm sure he will go too early for some but if you can get him from 10 on down he's a steal.

 

[Family Matters]

I for one am worried about the Colts running game next season.The defense is taking multiple hits and could be even more of a liability this next season. Leading to more of a passing attack and shy away from the running game.Also see Sophomore slump.Also see Addai has not shouldered the load yet.

The only concern I think is valid is the last one. Addai does come with some injury risk based on what happened in college. However, I don't think he was injured his last year at LSU and he was solid in his rookie campaign. So I'm feeling better about that now. If can handle the punishing hits of the NFL then he should be fine.

 

[TheDemon]

I just noticed in the March 19 Sporting News that Indianapolis correspondent Mike Chappell (who is also quoted above) said this:

"The Colts likely will stay with a tag-team approach at running back rather than increase Joseph Addai's workload. Addai is at his best when he's fresh. DeDe Dorsey may get the first shot at replacing Rhodes."

 

[comfortably numb]

I just noticed in the March 19 Sporting News that Indianapolis correspondent Mike Chappell (who is also quoted above) said this:

"The Colts likely will stay with a tag-team approach at running back rather than increase Joseph Addai's workload. Addai is at his best when he's fresh. DeDe Dorsey may get the first shot at replacing Rhodes."

Ooooooh KaaaaayWhat player isn't at his best when he is "fresh"?

 

[djcolts]

I just noticed in the March 19 Sporting News that Indianapolis correspondent Mike Chappell (who is also quoted above) said this:

"The Colts likely will stay with a tag-team approach at running back rather than increase Joseph Addai's workload. Addai is at his best when he's fresh. DeDe Dorsey may get the first shot at replacing Rhodes."

Ooooooh KaaaaayWhat player isn't at his best when he is "fresh"?

Maybe that wasn't the best way to phrase that, but, I'll put it more simply:1. How did the Colts do in the playoffs when they ran Edge into the ground during the regular season year after year?

2. How did the Colts do in the playoffs when they shared the RB load last season?

 

[zamboni]

Maybe that wasn't the best way to phrase that, but, I'll put it more simply:1. How did the Colts do in the playoffs when they ran Edge into the ground during the regular season year after year?2. How did the Colts do in the playoffs when they shared the RB load last season?

There are certainly a lot more factors involved in how the team performed in the playoffs over the past several years. Manning's better play, much better performance by the defense, etc... RB is only one piece of the puzzle.

 

[djcolts]

Maybe that wasn't the best way to phrase that, but, I'll put it more simply:1. How did the Colts do in the playoffs when they ran Edge into the ground during the regular season year after year?2. How did the Colts do in the playoffs when they shared the RB load last season?

There are certainly a lot more factors involved in how the team performed in the playoffs over the past several years. Manning's better play, much better performance by the defense, etc... RB is only one piece of the puzzle.

No question the D played much better, but 260+ total yards in the Super Bowl by the two RBs was huge. And, the RBs made huge plays in each of the other 3 games. The 2nd TD drive in the Chiefs game was mainly Dominic Rhodes. The clinching FG drive in the Ravens game was mostly Rhodes again. The winning TD in the AFCCG was capped off by 3 straight Addai runs. I'd say that the Colts RBs in the playoffs improved from previous playoff campaigns more than Manning improved, and I don't think it is close.