Addai's ceiling (1 Viewer)

[sholditch]

I just want a consensus of what people view this guy is capable of, because right now he is being drafted with PROVEN top producers. So, my ceiling for Addai, assuming no injuries, is about 1800 combined yards and 12 totals TDs. That would be roughly equal to Edge's production there. I also think that he has about a 10% chance of reaching those numbers. So, what's your ceiling for him?

 

[shadyridr]

2000 combined yards about 14 tds

 

[sholditch]

what is your likelihood he will hit that?

 

[shadyridr]

what is your likelihood he will hit that?

20%

 

[rdstorm]

I just want a consensus of what people view this guy is capable of, because right now he is being drafted with PROVEN top producers. So, my ceiling for Addai, assuming no injuries, is about 1800 combined yards and 12 totals TDs. That would be roughly equal to Edge's production there. I also think that he has about a 10% chance of reaching those numbers. So, what's your ceiling for him?

I would also think his absolute ceiling is the numbers Edge put up when healthy there. Addai isn't near the back Edge was in his prime. I'd give him only a 5% chance of getting there, or probably less if I could quantify it to that great a level of detail. So I'm saying 5% as in that's my lowest non-zero percentage; it's possible, but just barely that.Most probably, I'd give him a 10% bump over last year's numbers. They've already said they want to split carries, just not identified who the other guy is yet. And if they don't, he has a high probability of injury late in the season.

 

[switz]

I just want a consensus of what people view this guy is capable of, because right now he is being drafted with PROVEN top producers. So, my ceiling for Addai, assuming no injuries, is about 1800 combined yards and 12 totals TDs. That would be roughly equal to Edge's production there. I also think that he has about a 10% chance of reaching those numbers. So, what's your ceiling for him?

I would also think his absolute ceiling is the numbers Edge put up when healthy there. Addai isn't near the back Edge was in his prime. I'd give him only a 5% chance of getting there, or probably less if I could quantify it to that great a level of detail. So I'm saying 5% as in that's my lowest non-zero percentage; it's possible, but just barely that.Most probably, I'd give him a 10% bump over last year's numbers. They've already said they want to split carries, just not identified who the other guy is yet. And if they don't, he has a high probability of injury late in the season.

I would say the only way Addai could best Edge's numbers is if the philosophy of the team changed drastically, to a run-first team. But I do think Ddai could match Edge's numbers.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

The hard part about ceilings is that other things come into play, like contract bonuses and records. If Addai is close to leading the league in rushing, you'll probably see him get the ball more. If he's approaching the team record for touchdowns in a season, his number will likely get called at the goal-line more often.

I happen to think he has a very high ceiling, but if they have a Super Bowl hangover, they might have to throw more to stay in games. If he's nearing a record or has something in his contract that would get him a bonus, the team would (usually) try to make him happy.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

TDs are hard to project for Addai. On one hand, the offense should set him up with the opps to get double digits. On the other hand, Addai is not a classic short yardage back, and Manning seemed more than willing to call his own number at the goal line last year - including crucial situations in the NYJ double comeback, early division battle with Jacksonville and AFC Title game. Manning scored four rushing TDs last year, and one more in the playoffs. I think it's very possible that Manning vultures a few more from Addai this year.

 

[Traders2001]

8 total TD s , he is way overrated . He was nt even the best RB in Indy last season.

 

[Post Corner]

I just want a consensus of what people view this guy is capable of, because right now he is being drafted with PROVEN top producers. So, my ceiling for Addai, assuming no injuries, is about 1800 combined yards and 12 totals TDs. That would be roughly equal to Edge's production there. I also think that he has about a 10% chance of reaching those numbers. So, what's your ceiling for him?

I agree. I don't see him doing BETTER than Edge, so his ceiling would be around a very good James year, which is pretty darn good. Whether he does that or not is an entirely different issue.

 

[sholditch]

I was reading on another forum where someone asked whether he should keep SA, FWP, or Addai in a keep one league, and almost everyone immediately said Addai. Now, FWP had over 1700 combined yards and over 15 combined TDs, and one poster even went so far to say FWP was an afterthought. Of course, once I inquired as to why, all the usual regurgitated hype about Addai magically becoming Edge in 2001 because he's the Indy back. When I countered that Edge was considered the top talent in his draft class at the time, and had been the feature back at Miami, no one responded. Just amazes me the hype surrounding this guy. It makes the Reggie Bush hype from last year seem mild by comparison. Almost everyone agreed on taking a guy, and basically seemed ignorant of all the questions surrounding him.

 

[CA_7]

I think the ceiling is 2200/13 (totals). This is roughly the combined numbers for Addai and Rhodes in 2006. So realistically looking at 1700/10 (about 75% of the ceiling)...

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

I'm lazy, so I'll just repeat what I said in the Gore v Addai thread.

It's simply a question of projected workload and health. Indy has averaged 416 rush attempts and 79 passing targets intended for RBs in the last 3 years. With no other talent around to steal carries, Addai should get 75-85% of the rushing attempts. That's 312 to 353. Not out of line from what Edge used to get. 79 passing targets and again 75-85% of those would be normal with no speciality receiving back on the team. That's 41 to 47 catches.So we have a established workload of:312-353 rushing ATT41-47 catchesWhat's he gonna average on the ground (4.8 last year)?At 4.0 that's 1,248 to 1,412At 4.5 that's 1,404 to 1,588What's he gonna average through the air (8.1 last year)?At 8.0 that's 328 to 376At 9.0 that's 369 to 423So you have a player who, if healthy and performs above average, can get in the neighborhood of 1,576 to 2,011 total yards. Is that enough of a baseline to put him in contention for the #1 RB overall? You bet your ### it is.So no, it would not surprise me if Addai had an exceptional year (which is what it always takes) to finish #1.

 

[King of the Jungle]

I think the ceiling is 2200/13 (totals). This is roughly the combined numbers for Addai and Rhodes in 2006. So realistically looking at 1700/10 (about 75% of the ceiling)...

Looking at your rankings link, this caught my attention:10. Jay Cutler – DEN, Maybe the smartest QB in NFL, big arm and solid running game to keep defenses honest

As a Cutler dynasty owner, just curious on why you have that opinion.

 

[CA_7]

I think the ceiling is 2200/13 (totals). This is roughly the combined numbers for Addai and Rhodes in 2006. So realistically looking at 1700/10 (about 75% of the ceiling)...

Looking at your rankings link, this caught my attention:10. Jay Cutler – DEN, Maybe the smartest QB in NFL, big arm and solid running game to keep defenses honest

As a Cutler dynasty owner, just curious on why you have that opinion.

Because I went to Vanderbilt too.Doesn't get more biased than that does it?

 

[pinequick]

I think the ceiling is 2200/13 (totals). This is roughly the combined numbers for Addai and Rhodes in 2006. So realistically looking at 1700/10 (about 75% of the ceiling)...

Looking at your rankings link, this caught my attention:10. Jay Cutler – DEN, Maybe the smartest QB in NFL, big arm and solid running game to keep defenses honest

As a Cutler dynasty owner, just curious on why you have that opinion.

Because I want to Vanderbilt too.Doesn't get more biased than that does it?

Vanderbilt = quality education

 

[CA_7]

I think the ceiling is 2200/13 (totals). This is roughly the combined numbers for Addai and Rhodes in 2006. So realistically looking at 1700/10 (about 75% of the ceiling)...

Looking at your rankings link, this caught my attention:10. Jay Cutler – DEN, Maybe the smartest QB in NFL, big arm and solid running game to keep defenses honest

As a Cutler dynasty owner, just curious on why you have that opinion.

Because I want to Vanderbilt too.Doesn't get more biased than that does it?

Vanderbilt = quality education

I was an engineering major. OK I got wned:

 

[BigSteelThrill]

I think the ceiling is 2200/13 (totals). This is roughly the combined numbers for Addai and Rhodes in 2006. So realistically looking at 1700/10 (about 75% of the ceiling)...

Looking at your rankings link, this caught my attention:10. Jay Cutler – DEN, Maybe the smartest QB in NFL, big arm and solid running game to keep defenses honest

As a Cutler dynasty owner, just curious on why you have that opinion.

Because I want to Vanderbilt too.Doesn't get more biased than that does it?

Thats not biased, thats wonderful reverse psychology sarcasm.

 

[trader jake]

8 total TD s , he is way overrated . He was nt even the best RB in Indy last season.

Maybe Addai is overrated, but his ceiling this season is 8 TD's? You do know that he had 8 TD's last season...in a rookie year where he didn't even get 15 carries in half the games?

 

[Wally Cleaver]

I was reading on another forum where someone asked whether he should keep SA, FWP, or Addai in a keep one league, and almost everyone immediately said Addai. Now, FWP had over 1700 combined yards and over 15 combined TDs, and one poster even went so far to say FWP was an afterthought. Of course, once I inquired as to why, all the usual regurgitated hype about Addai magically becoming Edge in 2001 because he's the Indy back. When I countered that Edge was considered the top talent in his draft class at the time, and had been the feature back at Miami, no one responded. Just amazes me the hype surrounding this guy. It makes the Reggie Bush hype from last year seem mild by comparison. Almost everyone agreed on taking a guy, and basically seemed ignorant of all the questions surrounding him.

Here is the reason why Addai can put up edge like numbers... The colts won the superbowl with their rushing game and now realize that when defenses aim to stop the pass they can run all day on them... The colts circa 2000 through 2005 were a pass first team while Peyton amassed huge stats... Last year towards the end of the year and in the playoffs they were a run first team... I dont expect that to change with the success they had, and this is the reason I dont see Peyton as the clear #1 fantasy qb anymore... Their philosophy has changed.... Addai is talented enough and may be in the best situation out there for any back.

 

[sholditch]

I was reading on another forum where someone asked whether he should keep SA, FWP, or Addai in a keep one league, and almost everyone immediately said Addai. Now, FWP had over 1700 combined yards and over 15 combined TDs, and one poster even went so far to say FWP was an afterthought. Of course, once I inquired as to why, all the usual regurgitated hype about Addai magically becoming Edge in 2001 because he's the Indy back. When I countered that Edge was considered the top talent in his draft class at the time, and had been the feature back at Miami, no one responded. Just amazes me the hype surrounding this guy. It makes the Reggie Bush hype from last year seem mild by comparison. Almost everyone agreed on taking a guy, and basically seemed ignorant of all the questions surrounding him.

Here is the reason why Addai can put up edge like numbers... The colts won the superbowl with their rushing game and now realize that when defenses aim to stop the pass they can run all day on them... The colts circa 2000 through 2005 were a pass first team while Peyton amassed huge stats... Last year towards the end of the year and in the playoffs they were a run first team... I dont expect that to change with the success they had, and this is the reason I dont see Peyton as the clear #1 fantasy qb anymore... Their philosophy has changed.... Addai is talented enough and may be in the best situation out there for any back.

I notice that nothing in your post has to do with Addai himself. I don't doubt that he has some talent. What I do doubt is the reasoning that says that just because he's the feature back in Indy, a guy that has never carried a full load becomes Edge. I think people are seriously underrating the amount of great running tha was required to produce those results. Are you saying you have no doubts about a back who has never been a feature back? Never carried a full load?

 

[((Morpheus))]

I have the 5th pick and I'm having trouble getting excited about Addai... it's to the point where I'm contemplating trading down...

I really want to like Addai, but he smells like a disappointment to me. Somebody PLEASE convince me otherwise.

 

[sholditch]

take SA or FWP

 

[joffer]

1500 rushing, 500 receiving, 15 TDs is his ceiling

 

[Wally Cleaver]

I was reading on another forum where someone asked whether he should keep SA, FWP, or Addai in a keep one league, and almost everyone immediately said Addai. Now, FWP had over 1700 combined yards and over 15 combined TDs, and one poster even went so far to say FWP was an afterthought. Of course, once I inquired as to why, all the usual regurgitated hype about Addai magically becoming Edge in 2001 because he's the Indy back. When I countered that Edge was considered the top talent in his draft class at the time, and had been the feature back at Miami, no one responded. Just amazes me the hype surrounding this guy. It makes the Reggie Bush hype from last year seem mild by comparison. Almost everyone agreed on taking a guy, and basically seemed ignorant of all the questions surrounding him.

Here is the reason why Addai can put up edge like numbers... The colts won the superbowl with their rushing game and now realize that when defenses aim to stop the pass they can run all day on them... The colts circa 2000 through 2005 were a pass first team while Peyton amassed huge stats... Last year towards the end of the year and in the playoffs they were a run first team... I dont expect that to change with the success they had, and this is the reason I dont see Peyton as the clear #1 fantasy qb anymore... Their philosophy has changed.... Addai is talented enough and may be in the best situation out there for any back.

I notice that nothing in your post has to do with Addai himself. I don't doubt that he has some talent. What I do doubt is the reasoning that says that just because he's the feature back in Indy, a guy that has never carried a full load becomes Edge. I think people are seriously underrating the amount of great running tha was required to produce those results. Are you saying you have no doubts about a back who has never been a feature back? Never carried a full load?

I'm sorry, I am not a big believer in taking the most talented player... I couldn't care less who is the most talented back is... A good back with above average talent, with a team with an great offense line and high powered offense will outproduce an elite back with no offense or blocking... Edge in 2006 is a great example of a great back with no help.... I think Addai is in an A+ situation and most average NFL backs would have big years behind that line, facing six men in the box... I dont think addai is average, so I feel that he will have a very big year... I would rather have Addai then LJ or Gore this year simply due to his situation...I also feel that runningbacks are more interchangable than most people think, thus the reason why Nick Goings, Samkon Gado and players of that ilk can have huge games when they are put into good situations...

 

[Addai's Adidas]

1500 rushing, 500 receiving, 15 TDs is his ceiling

That's where I see it. 2000 all purpose yards, 16 total TD's. I think he may even catch 800 yards worth.