Anarchy99
Footballguy
We'll have to wait and see. But Peterson has been effective working out of the I formation with a full back as a lead blocker. If the Saints line up like that, it's most likely a running play, and the Saints will lose any advantage of having a rush/pass on any given play. Peterson hasn't been anywhere near as effective working out of the shotgun. If the Saints expect him to consistently pick up blitzers in a shotgun formation, Brees is going to be leaving on a stretcher.travdogg said:Last year was also the only time Ingram ever played 16 games. Peterson at the very least is a big upgrade from Hightower. I think its entirely possible that Peterson becomes the GL back. 8-10 TD's is absolutely on the table, 1,000 yards isn't likely, but not impossible given Ingram's durability. 700-5 feels like a reasonable floor for Peterson. As is RB3 stats.
Let's remember too, that Peterson has seen nothing but 8-man fronts for 90% of his career, he'll never see one again in New Orleans. His YPC is likely to be better than 4.5 just having an actual passing threat, and his % of hitting big plays should increase as well.
Ingram should still hold the job, like you said he's a superior dual threat, but I'd argue Peterson is probably still a better runner. Hightower had 155 carries last year, Peterson should get more work than him, and be more effective with it.
I think a fair estimate is Ingram in the 15-20 range and Peterson in the 25-30 range. Its also possible the Saints run more with Cooks gone.
We also don't know what a 32 year old RB with multiple knee surgeries and 2,800 career touches has left in the tank (regular and post season combined). I doubt the Saints will take touches away from Ingram, so Peterson will get the leftovers (or a bigger workload if Ingram is out). Ingram has missed 7 games in 3 years, which isn't excessive. Sure, he could get hurt early with a serious injury, but so could the lead back on any other team.
In ADP's last 9 games played (end of 2015 and 2016), he accounted for 438 rushing yards on 150 carries. That's a 2.88 ypc average. Sure, some of that is probably injury related or poor QB play, but that still should be a bit of a red flag.
As for the assertion that "his YPC is likely to be better than 4.5," there have been 4 (FOUR) running backs in their age 32 season that have had 100 carries and averaged 4.5 ypc, so that might be a bit of a reach. The Saints have averaged 13.7 rushing TD by RB in the 11 years with Brees at QB, so 8-10 TD for ADP is probably a reach.
Factor in that the Saints defense has ranked in the Bottom 5 in points allowed 4 times in the past 5 years, and it is more probable than not the Saints will continue to air it out and have to air it out.
Add everything together, and IMO there is more to indicate Peterson will not be putting up big numbers in New Orleans, but maybe that's just how I see things and am missing the upside.
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