Adrian Peterson (1 Viewer)

[easy like sunday morning]

I know a lot depends on where he ends up. Assuming he ends up with a team where he is the starter his rookie year how good do you think he will be next year?

I don't know as much about him. Was he injury prone in college or was the injury this year his main one?

 

[fruity pebbles]

I think the injury concerns are way overblown, I think his game translates very well to the pro level and I think he has borderline top 5 NFL talent.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I know a lot depends on where he ends up. Assuming he ends up with a team where he is the starter his rookie year how good do you think he will be next year? I don't know as much about him. Was he injury prone in college or was the injury this year his main one?

Oakland, Detroit, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Arizona, Houston...most of the teams with top picks need serious help on their OL. I can think of very few RB who came into the league and tore it up with bad OL. LT his 1st year in the league would be considered an exception but look what he did with a good OL in front of him this year. He broke all the records. The OL in front of Emmitt Smith had a lot to do with him being so successful. The OL in buffalo when Thurman Thomas was tearing it up.You can go back and usually when RB have had HoF careers and were at the top of the game, a lot can be contributed to the OL. One of the reasons Walter Peyton was so awesome was that his OL IMO was never much better than average. I can't remember too many HoF OL he ran behind.Peterson is going to struggle. People with the 1.1 pick in dynasty leagues don't want to hear it but AP will struggle.

 

[jurb26]

I know a lot depends on where he ends up. Assuming he ends up with a team where he is the starter his rookie year how good do you think he will be next year? I don't know as much about him. Was he injury prone in college or was the injury this year his main one?

Oakland, Detroit, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Arizona, Houston...most of the teams with top picks need serious help on their OL. I can think of very few RB who came into the league and tore it up with bad OL. LT his 1st year in the league would be considered an exception but look what he did with a good OL in front of him this year. He broke all the records. The OL in front of Emmitt Smith had a lot to do with him being so successful. The OL in buffalo when Thurman Thomas was tearing it up.You can go back and usually when RB have had HoF careers and were at the top of the game, a lot can be contributed to the OL. One of the reasons Walter Peyton was so awesome was that his OL IMO was never much better than average. I can't remember too many HoF OL he ran behind.Peterson is going to struggle. People with the 1.1 pick in dynasty leagues don't want to hear it but AP will struggle.

<---------------------------

 

[dparker713]

I know a lot depends on where he ends up. Assuming he ends up with a team where he is the starter his rookie year how good do you think he will be next year? I don't know as much about him. Was he injury prone in college or was the injury this year his main one?

Oakland, Detroit, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Arizona, Houston...most of the teams with top picks need serious help on their OL. I can think of very few RB who came into the league and tore it up with bad OL. LT his 1st year in the league would be considered an exception but look what he did with a good OL in front of him this year. He broke all the records. The OL in front of Emmitt Smith had a lot to do with him being so successful. The OL in buffalo when Thurman Thomas was tearing it up.You can go back and usually when RB have had HoF careers and were at the top of the game, a lot can be contributed to the OL. One of the reasons Walter Peyton was so awesome was that his OL IMO was never much better than average. I can't remember too many HoF OL he ran behind.Peterson is going to struggle. People with the 1.1 pick in dynasty leagues don't want to hear it but AP will struggle.

Thats a forecast for next year, however I think his potential long term is very high. Plus, a great back makes a bad line better. He's not going to be able to create without any semblance of good line play like Barry, but he's got All Pro ability.As for his injuries, they shouldnt have any effect on him in the pros.

 

[fruity pebbles]

I know a lot depends on where he ends up. Assuming he ends up with a team where he is the starter his rookie year how good do you think he will be next year? I don't know as much about him. Was he injury prone in college or was the injury this year his main one?

Oakland, Detroit, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Arizona, Houston...most of the teams with top picks need serious help on their OL. I can think of very few RB who came into the league and tore it up with bad OL. LT his 1st year in the league would be considered an exception but look what he did with a good OL in front of him this year. He broke all the records. The OL in front of Emmitt Smith had a lot to do with him being so successful. The OL in buffalo when Thurman Thomas was tearing it up.You can go back and usually when RB have had HoF careers and were at the top of the game, a lot can be contributed to the OL. One of the reasons Walter Peyton was so awesome was that his OL IMO was never much better than average. I can't remember too many HoF OL he ran behind.Peterson is going to struggle. People with the 1.1 pick in dynasty leagues don't want to hear it but AP will struggle.

Of those teams only Cleveland, Detroit and Houston would be likely to draft him. Droughns ran for back to back 1200 yard seasons before this year. Kevin Jones was having a top 10 fantasy year before he got hurt. Dom Davis had good years in Houston before he got hurt. None are the talent AD is IMO. Things can change pretty quickly as well. A poor line today is a very good line 2 years out.

 

[snellman]

Injuries are a slight concern, but most of Peterson's injuries were fluke injuries and he has not had injuries to his legs.

As an OU fan who followed Peterson very closely through his college career, he is the real deal. He is a big RB with speed who can either run through you or around you. He is not a shifty back, but has very good speed.

I think he will have a very productive career, but it could be a short career because of his running style. He would rather run through a defens than around them. If he learns to go out of bounds on occasion rather than always fighting for the extra yard it will definately increase the chances of a longer career.

I am targeting him in every dynasty and keeper draft I am in and am making the necessary moves to get the #1 pick. The only way I don't take him is if he goes to someone like Minn or Washington where he will be sharing carries and even then I will more than likely take him.

AD = All Day

 

[RedmondLonghorn]

I realize that college and the NFL aren't comparable, but it is probably worth pointing out that OU's offensive line wasn't very good in Peterson's sophomore or junior years. It had some impact on his productivity, but he was still one of the most productive and explosive backs in CFB behind a suspect offensive line.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Injuries are a slight concern, but most of Peterson's injuries were fluke injuries and he has not had injuries to his legs.As an OU fan who followed Peterson very closely through his college career, he is the real deal. He is a big RB with speed who can either run through you or around you. He is not a shifty back, but has very good speed. I think he will have a very productive career, but it could be a short career because of his running style. He would rather run through a defens than around them. If he learns to go out of bounds on occasion rather than always fighting for the extra yard it will definately increase the chances of a longer career.I am targeting him in every dynasty and keeper draft I am in and am making the necessary moves to get the #1 pick. The only way I don't take him is if he goes to someone like Minn or Washington where he will be sharing carries and even then I will more than likely take him.AD = All Day

See, I think Minny would be a great location for him.

 

[phthalatemagic]

I think the injury concerns are way overblown, I think his game translates very well to the pro level and I think he has borderline top 5 NFL talent.

AGREE

 

[DAG]

When Tomlinson got to SD their line was bad and they even took a little while to assemble a good one around him. I agree with fruity pebbles that now teams can improve their offensive lines pretty quickly. I have the 1.01 and am likely targeting Peterson. I think the worst situation for him is Cleveland, since the offensive line will have to rebuild again after the Bentley news, and their division is so bad, but even there I think he'll do well.

 

[EBF]

As a pure runner, he's a great talent. Definitely one of the best to come along in years. He's not as dynamic, explosive, or versatile as Reggie Bush, but he might be the best pure runner since Tomlinson. He has rare breakaway speed and very good acceleration. He has good athletic instincts and balance. He doesn't have great lateral agility, but he's plenty quick.

That's the good news.

The bad news is that his frame is far from ideal. Whereas Tomlinson is built low to the ground with stocky legs, Peterson is a tall back who looks a little bit lean (almost like a WR). He's a big target for tacklers and he really takes some monster shots. Unlike Tomlinson, he doesn't appear to have a knack for protecting his body and avoiding unnecessary collisions. With his long legs and upright style, he seems like an above average risk for serious injuries.

Also, he's not very proven as a receiver. If he fails to develop in that category then his value could be somewhat limited.

Bottom line is that he's a great talent. He has most of the skills you look for in an elite back. The only real flaws are his build and running style. If he was three inches shorter with a stockier build, then he'd be the perfect prospect. As it stands now, he's merely a great prospect whose career could be hampered and ultimately shortened by injuries resulting from his build and playing style.

He also might struggle on a team with a weak supporting cast. He's not the niftiest back behind the line of scrimmage, which means he'll need an adequate run-blocking line in order to reach his full potential.

 

[fruity pebbles]

As a pure runner, he's a great talent. Definitely one of the best to come along in years. He's not as dynamic, explosive, or versatile as Reggie Bush, but he might be the best pure runner since Tomlinson. He has rare breakaway speed and very good acceleration. He has good athletic instincts and balance. He doesn't have great lateral agility, but he's plenty quick. That's the good news. The bad news is that his frame is far from ideal. Whereas Tomlinson is built low to the ground with stocky legs, Peterson is a tall back who looks a little bit lean (almost like a WR). He's a big target for tacklers and he really takes some monster shots. Unlike Tomlinson, he doesn't appear to have a knack for protecting his body and avoiding unecessary collisions. With his long legs and upright style, he seems like an above average risk for serious injuries. Also, he's not very proven as a receiver. If he fails to develop in that category then his value could be somewhat limited. Bottom line is that he's a great talent. He has most of the skills you look for in an elite back. The only real flaws are his build and running style. If he was three inches shorter with a stockier build, then he'd be the perfect prospect. As it stands now, he's merely a great prospect whose career could be hampered and ultimately shortened by injuries resulting from his build and playing style. He also might struggle on a team with a weak supporting cast. He's not the niftiest back behind the line of scrimmage, which means he'll need an adequate run-blocking line in order to reach his full potential.

Same height as Larry Johnson and Steven Jackson, about 10 pounds lighter than either. See no reason he can't put 10 pounds on with his fat free build. Guy is a monster in person. His running style is similar to those guys as well.

 

[EBF]

As a pure runner, he's a great talent. Definitely one of the best to come along in years. He's not as dynamic, explosive, or versatile as Reggie Bush, but he might be the best pure runner since Tomlinson. He has rare breakaway speed and very good acceleration. He has good athletic instincts and balance. He doesn't have great lateral agility, but he's plenty quick. That's the good news. The bad news is that his frame is far from ideal. Whereas Tomlinson is built low to the ground with stocky legs, Peterson is a tall back who looks a little bit lean (almost like a WR). He's a big target for tacklers and he really takes some monster shots. Unlike Tomlinson, he doesn't appear to have a knack for protecting his body and avoiding unecessary collisions. With his long legs and upright style, he seems like an above average risk for serious injuries. Also, he's not very proven as a receiver. If he fails to develop in that category then his value could be somewhat limited. Bottom line is that he's a great talent. He has most of the skills you look for in an elite back. The only real flaws are his build and running style. If he was three inches shorter with a stockier build, then he'd be the perfect prospect. As it stands now, he's merely a great prospect whose career could be hampered and ultimately shortened by injuries resulting from his build and playing style. He also might struggle on a team with a weak supporting cast. He's not the niftiest back behind the line of scrimmage, which means he'll need an adequate run-blocking line in order to reach his full potential.

Same height as Larry Johnson and Steven Jackson, about 10 pounds lighter than either. See no reason he can't put 10 pounds on with his fat free build. Guy is a monster in person. His running style is similar to those guys as well.

Yea, I mostly agree with that. He's not quite as thick as either of those guys, but he's actually more explosive. Whether or not he has the luxury of playing behind a great offensive line (KC) and/or with a great supporting cast (STL) is another question. One of the things that scares me about AD is the possibility of him ending up in Cleveland, Minnesota, or Houston. None of those teams look very good right now.

 

[EBF]

By the way, I have no doubt that he's going to be effective when healthy. He has all the talent to perform well. The only question is whether he'll be able to hold up and for how long. Steven Jackson and Larry Johnson haven't been in the NFL very long, so it's tough to use them for comparisons. Jamal Lewis and Deuce McAllister, two other talented big backs who have been in the league for a while, have each had at least one serious knee injury.

 

[Carnifex]

From what I've seen (maybe 6-7 games), he looks like an exact copy of Eric Dickerson to me.

 

[snellman]

Injuries are a slight concern, but most of Peterson's injuries were fluke injuries and he has not had injuries to his legs.As an OU fan who followed Peterson very closely through his college career, he is the real deal. He is a big RB with speed who can either run through you or around you. He is not a shifty back, but has very good speed. I think he will have a very productive career, but it could be a short career because of his running style. He would rather run through a defens than around them. If he learns to go out of bounds on occasion rather than always fighting for the extra yard it will definately increase the chances of a longer career.I am targeting him in every dynasty and keeper draft I am in and am making the necessary moves to get the #1 pick. The only way I don't take him is if he goes to someone like Minn or Washington where he will be sharing carries and even then I will more than likely take him.AD = All Day

See, I think Minny would be a great location for him.

Trust me, as a Vikings fan I would love to see him wearing purple and gold next year. I think he would be a great fit for that offense and behind that line could have a great career.As a fantasy football owner who is doing everything in his power to secure the #1 pick including giving a bit more than that pick is worth however, Minnesota scares me a bit because he would be splitting carries with Chester Taylor which would hurt his value from a fantasy perspective.

 

[EBF]

Injuries are a slight concern, but most of Peterson's injuries were fluke injuries and he has not had injuries to his legs.As an OU fan who followed Peterson very closely through his college career, he is the real deal. He is a big RB with speed who can either run through you or around you. He is not a shifty back, but has very good speed. I think he will have a very productive career, but it could be a short career because of his running style. He would rather run through a defens than around them. If he learns to go out of bounds on occasion rather than always fighting for the extra yard it will definately increase the chances of a longer career.I am targeting him in every dynasty and keeper draft I am in and am making the necessary moves to get the #1 pick. The only way I don't take him is if he goes to someone like Minn or Washington where he will be sharing carries and even then I will more than likely take him.AD = All Day

See, I think Minny would be a great location for him.

Trust me, as a Vikings fan I would love to see him wearing purple and gold next year. I think he would be a great fit for that offense and behind that line could have a great career.As a fantasy football owner who is doing everything in his power to secure the #1 pick including giving a bit more than that pick is worth however, Minnesota scares me a bit because he would be splitting carries with Chester Taylor which would hurt his value from a fantasy perspective.

Peterson is good enough to force almost any back to the bench. I think he'll be the unquestioned workhorse wherever he goes. The only reason I'm wary of Cleveland, Houston, and Minnesota is because those teams have suspect supporting casts. It would be better for Peterson's FF prospects if he were to fall into the 20s and get taken by a good team (like what happened with LJ and SJ). Unfortunately for us, I think that's unlikely. I think the best realistic scenario is that Houston drafts him and acquires Jake Plummer. With a decent veteran QB and a solid zone blocking scheme that allowed even Ron Dayne to put up some big games, Peterson could conceivably be top 10 in year one. In Cleveland or Minnesota, who knows? Frye and Jackson have potential. So did Harrington and Carr at one point.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Injuries are a slight concern, but most of Peterson's injuries were fluke injuries and he has not had injuries to his legs.As an OU fan who followed Peterson very closely through his college career, he is the real deal. He is a big RB with speed who can either run through you or around you. He is not a shifty back, but has very good speed. I think he will have a very productive career, but it could be a short career because of his running style. He would rather run through a defens than around them. If he learns to go out of bounds on occasion rather than always fighting for the extra yard it will definately increase the chances of a longer career.I am targeting him in every dynasty and keeper draft I am in and am making the necessary moves to get the #1 pick. The only way I don't take him is if he goes to someone like Minn or Washington where he will be sharing carries and even then I will more than likely take him.AD = All Day

See, I think Minny would be a great location for him.

Trust me, as a Vikings fan I would love to see him wearing purple and gold next year. I think he would be a great fit for that offense and behind that line could have a great career.As a fantasy football owner who is doing everything in his power to secure the #1 pick including giving a bit more than that pick is worth however, Minnesota scares me a bit because he would be splitting carries with Chester Taylor which would hurt his value from a fantasy perspective.

Could see that the first year but Chester's not near the talent AD is. Chester's stopgap talent IMO and would be getting an occasional series and third down duty or gone by 2008. Pretty nice o-line. I'd rather see him there than Cleveland.

 

[-OZ-]

One of the things that scares me about AD is the possibility of him ending up in Cleveland, Minnesota, or Houston. None of those teams look very good right now.

Out of the teams I suspect would draft AD, Houston is one spot I like. Kubiak has done well with RBs before, no reason to think he won't turn things around there in the near future. I agree that the team looks bad right now, but with AJ already there, AD wouldn't have to be the complete focus of the offense. Although that can be said for Cleveland too.

 

[fruity pebbles]

One of the things that scares me about AD is the possibility of him ending up in Cleveland, Minnesota, or Houston. None of those teams look very good right now.

Out of the teams I suspect would draft AD, Houston is one spot I like. Kubiak has done well with RBs before, no reason to think he won't turn things around there in the near future. I agree that the team looks bad right now, but with AJ already there, AD wouldn't have to be the complete focus of the offense. Although that can be said for Cleveland too.

Yeah, I don't really see a super poor location that's he's likely to end up. Cleveland is probably the worst (and one of the most likely) but even that has upsides. Thy have some good young offensive weapons in Edwards and Winslow to keep the D honest. Their offensive line was riddled with injuries last year and when healthy isn't as bad as many think. Droughns rushed for 1200 yards and better than 4 YPC the two previous seasons. He'd also be the unquestioned starter from week 1. Downside is he has to play Pitt and Baltimore twice a year.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

As a pure runner, he's a great talent. Definitely one of the best to come along in years. He's not as dynamic, explosive, or versatile as Reggie Bush, but he might be the best pure runner since Tomlinson. He has rare breakaway speed and very good acceleration. He has good athletic instincts and balance. He doesn't have great lateral agility, but he's plenty quick.

That's the good news.

The bad news is that his frame is far from ideal. Whereas Tomlinson is built low to the ground with stocky legs, Peterson is a tall back who looks a little bit lean (almost like a WR). He's a big target for tacklers and he really takes some monster shots. Unlike Tomlinson, he doesn't appear to have a knack for protecting his body and avoiding unecessary collisions. With his long legs and upright style, he seems like an above average risk for serious injuries.

Also, he's not very proven as a receiver. If he fails to develop in that category then his value could be somewhat limited.

Bottom line is that he's a great talent. He has most of the skills you look for in an elite back. The only real flaws are his build and running style. If he was three inches shorter with a stockier build, then he'd be the perfect prospect. As it stands now, he's merely a great prospect whose career could be hampered and ultimately shortened by injuries resulting from his build and playing style.

He also might struggle on a team with a weak supporting cast. He's not the niftiest back behind the line of scrimmage, which means he'll need an adequate run-blocking line in order to reach his full potential.

Same height as Larry Johnson and Steven Jackson, about 10 pounds lighter than either. See no reason he can't put 10 pounds on with his fat free build. Guy is a monster in person. His running style is similar to those guys as well.

Yea, I mostly agree with that. He's not quite as thick as either of those guys, but he's actually more explosive. Whether or not he has the luxury of playing behind a great offensive line (KC) and/or with a great supporting cast (STL) is another question. One of the things that scares me about AD is the possibility of him ending up in Cleveland, Minnesota, or Houston. None of those teams look very good right now.

His style is more suited for slide zone blocking, the Browns have a power blocking scheme. Stephen Jackson and Larry Johnson have Pro Bowl QBs and solid offesive coaching with at minimum one top notch O-lineman, Cleveland have nothing approaching a Pro Bowl QB or even one top flight O-lineman. The real issue is Frye for the Browns. He's a RB killer. Reubend Droughns became the first 1,000 yard RB for Cleveland since Mack/Byner way back in the eighties. Reuben ran for the most yards of any Browns RB since HOF RB Leroy Kelly back in 1968. He set the ALL-TIME club record, yes he broke the great Jim Brown's rush attempt record but when Charlie Frye took over at QB his average per carry plummetted by a full yard. The entire offense took a decided nosedive when Frye took over for Trent Dilfer.

Dilfer (11 games) = 306.55 yards of total team offense

Frye (5 games) = 235.20 yards of total team offense

Over 70 less yards of offensive production. The coaches tried to deflect criticism away from Frye and claimed that Reuben got fatigued at the end of the 05 season but they couldn't use that excuse last year when teams were loading the box with eight/nine/ten defenders just daring Frye to beat them with his arm. The Browns saw Frye QB the team to two more losses and also saw his QB passer rating drop from his spotty rookie campaign.

The Browns biggest problem is QB Charlie Frye and Charlie will be Adrian Peterson's biggest problem if the Browns end up taking him in the draft. Cleveland and Adrian Peterson would be better served if the Browns got a legitimate franchise QB in the draft and AP could land on a team with a slide zone blocking scheme or at the very least, a better QB than Charlie Frye to give him a fighting chance.

 

[Sabertooth]

Pretty ####### good I'd say. If he somehow slides to Green Bay I'd be thrilled.

 

[One]

I still feel after the NFL Combine this week he'll be a front-runner for the Raiders.

 

[fruity pebbles]

I still feel after the NFL Combine this week he'll be a front-runner for the Raiders.

Whether they pay Jordan his 4.75 million dollar roster bonus in March will go a long way towards answering that question.

 

[Sinrman]

WIth the team in shambles, and needing to fill many holes, I don't see the Raiders taking him. My Lions I don't see drafting him either. Sure, Kevin Jones' injury is a big concern, but I could see them picking up a veteran RB (perhaps Corey Dillon?) and going with him until Jones is ready again. I don't see them giving up on Jones yet. Perhaps in another year or two, or if we find out the injury is much more severe (like career-ending). Cleveland, POSSIBLY. But I could see them going elsewhere with their pick -- QB, OL, or maybe defense. I don't think they will give up on Droughns just yet. He just gave them their first 1,000+ yard season since the 80's, and that was just two years ago! He just needs a lot more support, and OL and/or QB would go a long ways of doing that.

If he were to slip past others, I could also see him going to Houston. AD would be the perfect fit. They would want to atone for not drafting Bush last year, and still are in need of a marquee RB. I was never convinced that Lundy or others would cut it. Davis, I like and think many overlook him, but even I can't deny that he can't stay healthy.

 

[ravnzfan]

When Tomlinson got to SD their line was bad and they even took a little while to assemble a good one around him. I agree with fruity pebbles that now teams can improve their offensive lines pretty quickly. I have the 1.01 and am likely targeting Peterson. I think the worst situation for him is Cleveland, since the offensive line will have to rebuild again after the Bentley news, and their division is so bad, but even there I think he'll do well.

I think some folks in Pittsburg and here in Baltimore would tend to disagree w/the enlarged portion of the bolded statementas rough a spot as Cleveland would be this year for Peterson (and I don't see him going there, BTW), long term he'll do well no matter where he gets drafted

the longer he hangs around draft day, the better the odds someone jumps up to grab him

 

[thayman]

When Tomlinson got to SD their line was bad and they even took a little while to assemble a good one around him. I agree with fruity pebbles that now teams can improve their offensive lines pretty quickly. I have the 1.01 and am likely targeting Peterson. I think the worst situation for him is Cleveland, since the offensive line will have to rebuild again after the Bentley news, and their division is so bad, but even there I think he'll do well.

I think some folks in Pittsburg and here in Baltimore would tend to disagree w/the enlarged portion of the bolded statementas rough a spot as Cleveland would be this year for Peterson (and I don't see him going there, BTW), long term he'll do well no matter where he gets drafted

the longer he hangs around draft day, the better the odds someone jumps up to grab him

I took the comment of division is so bad to mean that Baltimore and Pittsburgh have such good Ds that it would be bad for him to end up there.

 

[Warhogs]

Someone else mentioned this earlier but I want reemphasize that from a fantasy football standpoint MOST (not all) elite RBs are also very effective in the passing game. I think as a runner AD has a very good chance to be very good but I'm not sure anybody knows how effective he can or will be catching passes.

If he can not be an effective pass catcher he will have to score 15+ TD each year to be a stud RB.

 

[zadok]

he looks like an exact copy of Eric Dickerson to me.

I agree. I will be taking him 1.1 in Dynasty with no hesitation.

 

[WhoDat]

I agree that, after his Pro Day, it will be difficult for a team to pass on him. In terms or the beauty contest Peterson is a specimen that only comes along every 10-15 years.

I also agree with some of the thoughts that his career will be short. He plays a physical game and has shown that he is prone to the nagging injury. What has not been stated, though, is that Peterson played and finished his entire sophmore season on a pair of dinged ankles AFTER the team suggested he go to the bench and start prepping for his junior season. In all fairness if one side of the injury prone debate is going to be highlighted then the other side needs attention too. He is not a Sally and has demonstarted he will play through or with pain.

Peterson's career will be spectacular but short. Check out E. Campbell's early run, while discounting those years with the Saints, and G. Rogers. I do not see Peterson playing 10 plus years but I see him blistering defenses at an All Pro or potential HOF clip for 3-5 seasons.

 

[H.K.]

Could see that the first year but Chester's not near the talent AD is. Chester's stopgap talent IMO and would be getting an occasional series and third down duty or gone by 2008. Pretty nice o-line. I'd rather see him there than Cleveland.

I agree. Peterson as a Viking would be a perfect FF fit. He'd get 20+ carries a game there behind a decent OL. The Viking running game would be much improved with a true stud RB. Taylor is a stop gap who put up numbers based on workload, AD would better Taylor's numbers given the same amount of touches.

 

[LHUCKS]

I foresee an Eddie George/Corey Dillon type career, with less longevity.

 

[Bevo]

I realize that college and the NFL aren't comparable, but it is probably worth pointing out that OU's offensive line wasn't very good in Peterson's sophomore or junior years. It had some impact on his productivity, but he was still one of the most productive and explosive backs in CFB behind a suspect offensive line.

Didn't Allen Patrick (not exactly a highly rated RB) do pretty well behind that line last year after Adrian went down due to injury again? That O-line last year turned out to be a fair bit better than many, including me, thought that it would.

 

[Sabertooth]

I foresee an Eddie George/Corey Dillon type career, with less longevity.

Those are pretty darn good careers though.

 

[Jedimaster21]

I foresee an Eddie George/Corey Dillon type career, with less longevity.

Eddie George and Corey Dillon were very good players, but from a scouting standpoint, Peterson is in another league. He will possibly be the fastest back in the NFL, has elite vision, and his acceleration is amazing. I think it is fair to say that Dillon and George run with similar power, but neither were the threat to take it the distance every time they touched the ball. Besides being as talented as any back to come out in the last decade, any team that invests a very high pick on him will be prepared to make him the focus of their offensive attack. I see great things for AD. He should put up very solid fantasy stats regardless of where he goes, and will be an elite fantasy player once he has a supporting cast.

 

[Kit Fisto]

I really, really, really hate the canned "but what if he goes to a bad situation" line.

The Chargers didn't draft Tomlinson at #32. The Colts didn't draft Manning at the end of the 1st either. They sucked once too. The 49ers weren't always bad; the Colts weren't always good.

Look, every team that's in a draft position high enough to grab a stud like Peterson is a "bad situation"! It's guys like Peterson that turn franchises around.

 

[lod2005]

He will be great.....until he gets hurt. What is the over/under for the week he gets put on IR? I'm going to say week 9.

 

[Kit Fisto]

I foresee an Eddie George/Corey Dillon type career, with less longevity.

Eddie George and Corey Dillon were very good players, but from a scouting standpoint, Peterson is in another league. He will possibly be the fastest back in the NFL, has elite vision, and his acceleration is amazing. I think it is fair to say that Dillon and George run with similar power, but neither were the threat to take it the distance every time they touched the ball. Besides being as talented as any back to come out in the last decade, any team that invests a very high pick on him will be prepared to make him the focus of their offensive attack. I see great things for AD. He should put up very solid fantasy stats regardless of where he goes, and will be an elite fantasy player once he has a supporting cast.

What a great post! Thank you!

 

[Kit Fisto]

He will be great.....until he gets hurt. What is the over/under for the week he gets put on IR? I'm going to say week 9.

...says the guy who owns Frank Gore.

 

[lod2005]

I foresee an Eddie George/Corey Dillon type career, with less longevity.

If Eddie didn't go to Tenn. and watch McNair steal 1/2 his TD's he would have had another 30 TD's.

 

[ImTheScientist]

I foresee an Eddie George/Corey Dillon type career, with less longevity.

If Eddie didn't go to Tenn. and watch McNair steal 1/2 his TD's he would have had another 30 TD's.

 

[LHUCKS]

I foresee an Eddie George/Corey Dillon type career, with less longevity.

Those are pretty darn good careers though.

No doubt...I personally believe Corey Dillon should be in the HOF, although being on all those pathetic Bengals teams will probably prevent that from ever happening.

 

[LHUCKS]

I foresee an Eddie George/Corey Dillon type career, with less longevity.

Eddie George and Corey Dillon were very good players, but from a scouting standpoint, Peterson is in another league. He will possibly be the fastest back in the NFL, has elite vision, and his acceleration is amazing. I think it is fair to say that Dillon and George run with similar power, but neither were the threat to take it the distance every time they touched the ball. Besides being as talented as any back to come out in the last decade, any team that invests a very high pick on him will be prepared to make him the focus of their offensive attack. I see great things for AD. He should put up very solid fantasy stats regardless of where he goes, and will be an elite fantasy player once he has a supporting cast.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree, 40 times are overrated for RBs and I think you are overestimating his vision.

 

[Jedimaster21]

I foresee an Eddie George/Corey Dillon type career, with less longevity.

Eddie George and Corey Dillon were very good players, but from a scouting standpoint, Peterson is in another league. He will possibly be the fastest back in the NFL, has elite vision, and his acceleration is amazing. I think it is fair to say that Dillon and George run with similar power, but neither were the threat to take it the distance every time they touched the ball. Besides being as talented as any back to come out in the last decade, any team that invests a very high pick on him will be prepared to make him the focus of their offensive attack. I see great things for AD. He should put up very solid fantasy stats regardless of where he goes, and will be an elite fantasy player once he has a supporting cast.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree, 40 times are overrated for RBs and I think you are overestimating his vision.

I definitely agree that 40 times are overrated, and vision is not really something that is measureable, so I am really just judging by the film I have seen on him. However, after watching him in college and looking at times he has posted in the 40 and 100 meters, it would be very difficulty to say that either of the backs you mentioned are even close to as fast. Did you ever see him get caught from behind at Oklahoma?

 

[Q-Bert]

One of the things that scares me about AD is the possibility of him ending up in Cleveland, Minnesota, or Houston. None of those teams look very good right now.

Out of the teams I suspect would draft AD, Houston is one spot I like. Kubiak has done well with RBs before, no reason to think he won't turn things around there in the near future. I agree that the team looks bad right now, but with AJ already there, AD wouldn't have to be the complete focus of the offense. Although that can be said for Cleveland too.

Yeah, I don't really see a super poor location that's he's likely to end up. Cleveland is probably the worst (and one of the most likely) but even that has upsides. Thy have some good young offensive weapons in Edwards and Winslow to keep the D honest. Their offensive line was riddled with injuries last year and when healthy isn't as bad as many think. Droughns rushed for 1200 yards and better than 4 YPC the two previous seasons. He'd also be the unquestioned starter from week 1. Downside is he has to play Pitt and Baltimore twice a year.

Yes, but one of those two seasons he was playing in Denver.

 

[fruity pebbles]

One of the things that scares me about AD is the possibility of him ending up in Cleveland, Minnesota, or Houston. None of those teams look very good right now.

Out of the teams I suspect would draft AD, Houston is one spot I like. Kubiak has done well with RBs before, no reason to think he won't turn things around there in the near future. I agree that the team looks bad right now, but with AJ already there, AD wouldn't have to be the complete focus of the offense. Although that can be said for Cleveland too.

Yeah, I don't really see a super poor location that's he's likely to end up. Cleveland is probably the worst (and one of the most likely) but even that has upsides. Thy have some good young offensive weapons in Edwards and Winslow to keep the D honest. Their offensive line was riddled with injuries last year and when healthy isn't as bad as many think. Droughns rushed for 1200 yards and better than 4 YPC the two previous seasons. He'd also be the unquestioned starter from week 1. Downside is he has to play Pitt and Baltimore twice a year.

Yes, but one of those two seasons he was playing in Denver.

Yeah, sorry about that. Twas dumb.

 

[fruity pebbles]

I realize that college and the NFL aren't comparable, but it is probably worth pointing out that OU's offensive line wasn't very good in Peterson's sophomore or junior years. It had some impact on his productivity, but he was still one of the most productive and explosive backs in CFB behind a suspect offensive line.

Didn't Allen Patrick (not exactly a highly rated RB) do pretty well behind that line last year after Adrian went down due to injury again? That O-line last year turned out to be a fair bit better than many, including me, thought that it would.

He did pretty well, but his YPC was almost a full yard less than Peterson's.

 

[jurb26]

I foresee an Eddie George/Corey Dillon type career, with less longevity.

Eddie George and Corey Dillon were very good players, but from a scouting standpoint, Peterson is in another league. He will possibly be the fastest back in the NFL, has elite vision, and his acceleration is amazing. I think it is fair to say that Dillon and George run with similar power, but neither were the threat to take it the distance every time they touched the ball. Besides being as talented as any back to come out in the last decade, any team that invests a very high pick on him will be prepared to make him the focus of their offensive attack. I see great things for AD. He should put up very solid fantasy stats regardless of where he goes, and will be an elite fantasy player once he has a supporting cast.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree, 40 times are overrated for RBs and I think you are overestimating his vision.

I definitely agree that 40 times are overrated, and vision is not really something that is measureable, so I am really just judging by the film I have seen on him. However, after watching him in college and looking at times he has posted in the 40 and 100 meters, it would be very difficulty to say that either of the backs you mentioned are even close to as fast. Did you ever see him get caught from behind at Oklahoma?

Eddie and Corey are certianly not as fast and never were. Still, Peterson will not be the fastest RB in the NFL. I can think of a handfull of starters off the top of my head that are faster w/o really trying all that hard. I don't know if vision can be "measured." I do know however what I can see and Peterson has fantastic vision IMO. I'm sure NFL scouts would agree. The main worry I have regarding Peterson is his injury history and how that impacts his career. NFL teams and scouts are well known to have concerns about him never finishing a college season w/o missing time due to injury. Does that mean he could possibly be spelled more than he should in the NFL? I especially worry about this if he ends up on a team with a solid RB in place already. Sure, Peterson may have the talent to put the exhisting starter on the bench, but if the team feels he needs a lesser load to remain effective and healthy all year why would they risk it? Moreover, I don't see Peterson as the kind of back who prospers in a roll like that. I see him more as the kind of workhorse who gets better as he is feed the ball more.

 

[Arsenal of Doom]

If he's not the fastest by stopwatch speed (and he'll be close), Peterson is certainly going to be among the top 2 or 3 backs for true field speed. His burst and acceleration are incredible, and frankly would be even if he were 5' 10" 200 lbs not 6'2" & 220.

I'll take Eddie George and Corey Dillion with the ability to rip off 90 yard runs. At that point we're basically talking about a football exclusive Bo Jackson.