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Adrian Wilson (1 Viewer)

TheBottomLine

Footballguy
First off.. I'm definitely sipping on some Haterade right now. I'm not calling him overrated from a real-life standpoint, this is strictly fantasy. I drafted him 3 years ago in a dynasty league when he was listed then as the top dynasty DB.. and all he has done since is highly disappoint me. What hurts the most is constantly seeing the experts big on him here on FBGuys... every week he seems to be somewhere in the top 10 or close to it on the weekly cheatsheets, and I just want to know how? He is definitely a playmaker, 5 picks and 13 passes defensed last year were definitely among the top Safeties.. but his tackle numbers are just unbearable. Only one time since last year, thats 19 games, has he had more than 5 solo tackles. Only one time. He just seems to me as one of the most inconsistent plays out there, as his only real chance for having an impact on a given week is to have a pick or forced fumble. Like week 1 this year, if I remember correctly he had a sack, a blocked field goal, and 2 interceptions. IMO he is a borderline top 30 safety due to his horrid tackle numbers and major inconsistency. I think maybe people expect he can go back to his 2004-2006 numbers, but thats been 5 years ago. What is there to like about this guy?? What am I not seeing that everyone else is?

 
but then why do they continue to rank this dude so high? makes no sense to me. He finished 38th among all DB's in my league last year, yet the experts continue to hype this cat.

 
They love him and Richard Marshall in these parts for some reason. At least Wilson used to be a stud.

 
No argument from me that we tend to over-rank Wilson. For my part, I'm partial to single game upside after we get outside the top 10-15 names on my rank list. This year, I had Wilson ranked 11th overall, in part due to his big play upside, but also due to expectations that he'd be able to capitalize on lots of opportunity behind a relatively weak linebacker unit and his role as the hybrid LB/S in the nickel package.

Instead, it's been the same Wilson -- solid big play option, very inconsistent tackler. Again, speaking only for myself here, I'd still have a hard time not drafting Wilson as a top 20 DB today for the same reasons listed above. Looking at the current DB rankings, I'd arguably rather have Wilson (DB30) over at least 15 guys above him. (I'd rather have a few listed below over Wilson, however.) Maybe that's an error in my process, but the single game upside and matchup value is important to me in the DB2 and below tiers.

As for Marshall, he was the DB16 (2006), DB8 (2007) and DB14 (2009). He's been a near lock for 70+ solos and double digit PDs over that time. Even his DB59 season in 2008 was anchored by almost 70 solos. I don't see any reason he shouldn't have been considered a legitimate DB1 before the season began. Through three games, the Panthers have allowed the league's sixth fewest pass completions and a run/pass ratio of 67%, second in the league to date and 12 percentage points over historical league averages. I'm definitely disappointed he hasn't been able to take advantage of the run support opportunity and am concerned over what the strong play of SLB James Anderson and SS Charles Godfrey could mean for his tackle numbers, but there's reason to believe he'll rebound strongly with NO and CHI next up on the schedule.

 
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ONCE AGAIN... early projections have him with 6 solos this week, something he's done once in his past 19 games. It continues to baffle me. I realize its a tasty matchup against Antonio Gates and San Diego but still..

 

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