Advice for Competing in 10 Team Guppy League? (1 Viewer)

[alanivy]

While sometimes you play in a competitive money league, sometimes you're playing with family or guys from the office and it's less competitive. What strategy would you use if you found yourself in a 10-team league with a bunch of people who largely just follow ESPN's rankings? My strategy for approaching this type of league keeps changing. Sometimes I think you should take high risk high reward guys (McFadden, Vick, Hernandez, Lloyd, etc.) because if they don't work out, you shouldn't have too much trouble finding someone off the waiver wire. Sometimes I think you should take the opposite approach and draft safely because if you do you're almost guaranteed to make it to the playoffs. What do you guys think?

 

[jwb]

Studs count all the time, but even moreso in smaller leagues. You need them across your entire lineup. The whole "I can wait and get away with player x" is less effective as the league gets smaller.

Be careful when drafting - most guppies draft to fill a starting lineup first, so it's easy to fall into "OMG, how do you guys leave him out there?" This is good in that you can snag a nice bench guy / bye week fill in while everyone else is worrying about their TE, but it's also easy to look up after round 8 and see you have six RB (when you can only start 3 at most), one WR, and one TE. And in ten team leagues, that's trouble.

 

[Cookiemonster]

Try to incite panic by starting QB runs. Get a top QB early, and another again soon. They'll spend so much time trying to scramble for the QB scraps, you'll have no problem picking up some very nice mid-round picks. Say, Rodgers in the 1st, and nab Brees or Brady if you can in the 3rd or 4th. Post draft, trade one of them for a top WR or solid #2 RB. If you pick top 3, then get your stud RB, and pick off two top QBs at the 2/3 turn. You will likely see the top 15 QBs gone by the 6th round.

 

[RavenLunatic]

Great point.

 

[fatness]

QB's will be drafted earlier than you think. If there's a top QB you want you'll have to get him early. Remember this especially if you're at the very beginning or very end of the draft order.

 

[Abraham]

The biggest thing to exploit is other people filling their starting lineup and leaving good players on the board.

The thing to watch for is unique rules (ppr, double points for quarterbacks who rush forbtouchdowns etc)

 

[DawnBTVS]

Some things to note from my 10 team draft...

- QBs can go fast and early. By the start of Round 5 there had been 7 QBs selected. 10 by the end of Round 6 (I took Brady in R1 and Peyton Manning to back him up in R6).

- Don't assume that just because you take say TE Rob Gronkowski or QB Drew Brees that a run will suddenly occur. If you expect it and suddenly see your value guys flying off the board, that's the downside.

- Make sure you know the starting requirements for WRs as they go fast and faster. 19 were taken by the start of Round 6.

- Pay attention to roster requirements. Starting 2 RB is far different from 1 RB and 1 Flex. If you start 1/1, it's questionable to hoard 6-7 RBs despite the value while other teams stack up at QB, WR, and even TE.

- Don't bank on being able to have trade partners after the draft. The smaller the league, the 'easier' it is to survive with "only" a Ben Roethlisberger or a Tony Romo starting at QB. Same for RB and WR.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

well, if you're IN a guppy league, and you need advice on beating guppies.......

 

[alanivy]

What about high risk, high rewards vs. safe and reliable? Argument for high risk, high rewards is that you feel you can replace the guy if he flops, argument for safe and reliable is that you don't have to worry about pushing it too hard anyway, so you might as well eliminate the possibility of things falling apart.

 

[metoo]

Studs count all the time, but even moreso in smaller leagues. You need them across your entire lineup. The whole "I can wait and get away with player x" is less effective as the league gets smaller.

Be careful when drafting - most guppies draft to fill a starting lineup first, so it's easy to fall into "OMG, how do you guys leave him out there?" This is good in that you can snag a nice bench guy / bye week fill in while everyone else is worrying about their TE, but it's also easy to look up after round 8 and see you have six RB (when you can only start 3 at most), one WR, and one TE. And in ten team leagues, that's trouble.

I play in a guppy league at work and last year was my first year playing with them. You definitely have to go about things differently go value at starting positions. Top QBs will probably go in the first round no matter the scoring.

 

[DawnBTVS]

What about high risk, high rewards vs. safe and reliable? Argument for high risk, high rewards is that you feel you can replace the guy if he flops, argument for safe and reliable is that you don't have to worry about pushing it too hard anyway, so you might as well eliminate the possibility of things falling apart.

Since it's a 10 team league, most (if not all) of the teams will have at least 1 stud per position outside of maybe TE and DEF. So I'd rather go high risk, high reward because every point matters even more in this kind of league where the talent disparity is less (in comparison to say a 14 or 16 team league). If you can get a guy late who happens to explode (ala Cam Newton last year or even an Arian Foster type) can be the difference between a dogfight in the playoffs or running away with the league.Tom Brady = 396.1 (1/25, 6 point per TD, -2 per INT) or 24.76 FPPG in 16 GamesEli Manning = 304.3 or 19.02 FPPG in 16 GamesMatt Ryan = 295.2 or 18.45 FPPG in 16 GamesThat may not seem like a "big" difference but having an edge of almost 5-6 points a week at the QB position can be big. That can offset being slightly behind at RB or WR. Same goes down the line for RB, WR, TE, etc.In my 10 team league I also used strategy and drafted Peyton Manning despite having Tom Brady. It was less about needing him or value as much as making sure that another team didn't have a potential Top 5 QB on their roster, thus giving me a "further" point advantage.

 

[Synesthesia]

Guppies also tend to be very easy to influence with a little bit of table talk. I'm in a guppy league with some college buddies, and every year I've been able to incite a TE run just by saying "well, it looks like this is the start of the annual TE run" sometime in the 5th or 6th round.

Guppies panic more easily, so all you need to do is give them a tiny nudge. Mention how there're only 2 strong QBs left on the board, and watch them both get snapped up in the next round. Praise someone for handcuffing, and watch the value fall as half the league starts searching for their handcuff. It also helps if you have a reputation for knowing what you're doing. The more I win against my buddies, the more they listen when I make off-hand comments at the table. The more they listen, the more value falls to my next pick. The more value falls, the more I win. It's a virtuous cycle. Someone heavily invested would see right through me, or notice that I say the words "TE run" every year in the 6th round... but guppies just aren't that invested. In this day and age, with all the quality free information out there, that's sort of the definition of guppy- someone who can't be bothered to put in the effort.

 

[ens189]

Guppy leagues can be really hard...lots of reaches that totally throw off any kind of strategy you have set up. Really need to stick to your guns and soak up all the value.

 

[One More Rep]

well, if you're IN a guppy league, and you need advice on beating guppies.......

 

[ExaltedOne]

Try to incite panic by starting QB runs. Get a top QB early, and another again soon. They'll spend so much time trying to scramble for the QB scraps, you'll have no problem picking up some very nice mid-round picks. Say, Rodgers in the 1st, and nab Brees or Brady if you can in the 3rd or 4th. Post draft, trade one of them for a top WR or solid #2 RB. If you pick top 3, then get your stud RB, and pick off two top QBs at the 2/3 turn. You will likely see the top 15 QBs gone by the 6th round.

2 QBs in the top 3 rounds? This is terrible advice. Never assume you'll be able to make any reasonable trades in a guppy league. You'll likely get offers like Beanie Wells for Cam Newton.

 

[Sinrman]

My advice: Better not lose!

 

[Patroclus]

Well, to me the only reason to be in a guppy league is to have fun. I'm commishing one with my family this year and I'm trying hard not to dominate it. In fact I think it's going to be really hard not to. I'd rather loose $10 and have a great time with my dad and bros than go 16-0 in the league.

 

[The Jerk]

I second the advice on not expecting trades to happen. Even unbalanced trades in your opponents' favor will be difficult to pull off in a "guppy" league.

You should prepare for the starting lineup to be filled up more so than in a FBG-heavy league, and to me that means you need to just try to stay one step ahead of the curve in terms of getting good backups just before they do. Don't wait as long as you normally would for QB and TE, just know that typically you can still get good backup RB and WR in rounds 7 and 8 in these types of leagues.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

well, if you're IN a guppy league, and you need advice on beating guppies.......

I wont say good posting, but, I think if your on here, you really don't have much to worry about it. Sure, you may not win, but that's part of the game. I think drafting with lower level people Should, well, make things easier for you.If you truly aren't a guppy, you will draft much better than everyone else, have a better chance at drafting the clear better choices early(avoiding the ADP lists and going off what you know to be true) and also drafting much more of the higher probability sleepers later.The Depth of your team should eventually set you apart in your league. A main guy that helped me win Local(guppy) leagues last year was Jimmy Graham, a guy who got plenty of pup here but most that just play for fun wouldn't even know about. I grabbed him in all of the leagues I played in, along with some other sleepers that didn't pan out, but him alone set me apart. Picking up CJ Spiller when Fjax went down. Picking up Tebow early even though he was unimpressive in the actual games(because of the rushing yards and TDs)simple things like that are the things that set you apart. I didn't go undefeated or even lead any of the leagues in total points, but I made the playoffs, what more can you really ask for?

 

[Longshot88]

i Have some experiace with this. In my friend league over the last 10 years I have 5 championships, 3 runnerups , and 2 3rd place ..Never have i missed the playoffs, or even finshed out of the money. You cant win every year no matter how good you are, or how bad they are. there are just too many things out of your control, Schedual, Injurys ect. But you can put a stacked team out there every week.

Just a few things i do to prepare for this league.

#1 Use draft dominator, I mainly use it to keep track of what poitions were taken in the slots around me. As well as bye weeks

#2 RB,RB,RB even more so than in other leagues and especialy this year,Get 3 solid guys in the first 4 rounds...then move to wr

#3 ROOKIES, Rookies tend to last longer in these leagues, grab them ..dont over reach,but guppy owners tend to stay clear of rookies

#4 be prepared to change your plan. crazy things happen every year, to be suprised by it. make it work for you

#5 Dont panic after the draft, your going to have a great team, but every year I think it should have been better after the draft

#6 Try to make 2 for one trades druing and after the draft

 

[supersecretid]

Advice for a 10-team guppy league?

I'l let Al Davis's famous slogan handle this one.

 

[Zeff]

Just draft normally.

"Guppies" and "sharks" are exactly the same creature on draft day, since both are doing little more than regurgitating internet advice regarding who to draft when. You'll get a leg up over one or two guys, because they won't be up on injury news, but for the most part they'll be operating from the same knowledge base as you will. They may not know the "why" as well as you do, but the "who" and the "when" will be identical. Don't underestimate guppies on draft day, because the guppies are all just Matthew Berry in disguise.

Beat them by being the best after the draft, by being willing to turn it into a sixteen-week long pursuit instead of a one-day beerfest with cheatsheet. That's the only difference between the two groups these days. The knowledge gap on draft day has long since disappeared.

 

[ExaltedOne]

Just draft normally."Guppies" and "sharks" are exactly the same creature on draft day, since both are doing little more than regurgitating internet advice regarding who to draft when. You'll get a leg up over one or two guys, because they won't be up on injury news, but for the most part they'll be operating from the same knowledge base as you will. They may not know the "why" as well as you do, but the "who" and the "when" will be identical. Don't underestimate guppies on draft day, because the guppies are all just Matthew Berry in disguise.Beat them by being the best after the draft, by being willing to turn it into a sixteen-week long pursuit instead of a one-day beerfest with cheatsheet. That's the only difference between the two groups these days. The knowledge gap on draft day has long since disappeared.

Wrong. In a guppy league draft last night the first round went something like this:1. Rodgers2. Gronkowski3. Brady4. Foster5. P manning6. Brees7. Rice8. McCoy9. Newton (me, didn't want to get screwed at qb)10. Stafford11. Vick12. E manningThis is a standard nfl league with 1qb start, no Ppr, and 4 pt pass TDsMy point is that guppy leagues are unpredictable and they do not follow adp at all.

 

[Zeff]

Just draft normally."Guppies" and "sharks" are exactly the same creature on draft day, since both are doing little more than regurgitating internet advice regarding who to draft when. You'll get a leg up over one or two guys, because they won't be up on injury news, but for the most part they'll be operating from the same knowledge base as you will. They may not know the "why" as well as you do, but the "who" and the "when" will be identical. Don't underestimate guppies on draft day, because the guppies are all just Matthew Berry in disguise.Beat them by being the best after the draft, by being willing to turn it into a sixteen-week long pursuit instead of a one-day beerfest with cheatsheet. That's the only difference between the two groups these days. The knowledge gap on draft day has long since disappeared.

Wrong. In a guppy league draft last night the first round went something like this:1. Rodgers2. Gronkowski3. Brady4. Foster5. P manning6. Brees7. Rice8. McCoy9. Newton (me, didn't want to get screwed at qb)10. Stafford11. Vick12. E manningThis is a standard nfl league with 1qb start, no Ppr, and 4 pt pass TDsMy point is that guppy leagues are unpredictable and they do not follow adp at all.

Wrong.(See, I can do that too, except I'm right. See below.)All you have to do is cruise over to the espn draft ADP thingy. There are fourteen billion of those leagues, and they're stuffed to the rafters with people who can't name more than 5 starting QB's. And the average draft positions will follow your much-beloved cheatsheets so closely as to be completely indistinguishable.So there are my fourteen billion data points, and thanks for sharing your...uh...one.So I repeat: draft as normal. If you go in assuming you're going to be drafting with people who will take Peyton Manning first overall because they've heard of him, it'll be hard to optimize a strategy on the fly that will maximize your chances of taking advantage of whatever the F'd up situation is, anyway. In that case, your best strategy is probably to draft according to Hoyle and try to win the thing through better management year-round.If you try to get cute by assuming you're the only genius in the room, and then they all draft straight out of some espn draft prep article, you'll end up looking like the gupp.The draft lists everybody has are that way for a reason. They represent a pretty good guess at what the best choices are at any given moment or spot. Deviate too much and logic says you're only hurting yourself.

 

[Zeff]

And oh yeah...that's the follow up, take-home point.

While not EVERYONE will have the official internet guy cheat sheet in front of him, probably three quarters will. That means a few yahoos will take insane flyers, and a handful of good values will trickle down. Take the values where they fall, and don't overthink it. That's pretty much the entire draft day strategy.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Studs count all the time, but even moreso in smaller leagues. You need them across your entire lineup. The whole "I can wait and get away with player x" is less effective as the league gets smaller.

Be careful when drafting - most guppies draft to fill a starting lineup first, so it's easy to fall into "OMG, how do you guys leave him out there?" This is good in that you can snag a nice bench guy / bye week fill in while everyone else is worrying about their TE, but it's also easy to look up after round 8 and see you have six RB (when you can only start 3 at most), one WR, and one TE. And in ten team leagues, that's trouble.

Fantastic post, really nailed it there. I have a 10 team guppy league15 years running and it is ll about the studs at every position.

 

[meatwad1]

Try to incite panic by starting QB runs. Get a top QB early, and another again soon. They'll spend so much time trying to scramble for the QB scraps, you'll have no problem picking up some very nice mid-round picks. Say, Rodgers in the 1st, and nab Brees or Brady if you can in the 3rd or 4th. Post draft, trade one of them for a top WR or solid #2 RB. If you pick top 3, then get your stud RB, and pick off two top QBs at the 2/3 turn. You will likely see the top 15 QBs gone by the 6th round.

In those kind of leagues there are usually 7 qbs off the board in two rounds. I would wait on a qb and get wrs/rbs along with Gronk or Graham.

 

[ExaltedOne]

Just draft normally.

I wasn't disagreeing with you on this point. I was disagreeing with your expectation that guppy drafts are going to go according to ADP. In fact, I think you're more likely to see adherence to ADP in a shark league. Sure, the sharks might draft the "sleepers" a round or two early, but the guppies will draft seemingly random players many rounds before ADP.Your millions of data points are an average, but not an indication of what will actually happen in an individual draft. You should expect the unexpected.I agree with you that you should draft normally, but be prepared that you may need to be a bit flexible. In my example draft I didn't really intend to draft a QB in round 1, but I'm glad I did because due to the run I was still able to get top quality guys at RB/WR in the 2-7 rounds. For example, I took Chris Johnson in round 2, Murray in round 3, and Richardson in the 4th, and the WR depth allowed me to still get Dez and Harvin in rounds 5 and 6.

 

[ExaltedOne]

Try to incite panic by starting QB runs. Get a top QB early, and another again soon. They'll spend so much time trying to scramble for the QB scraps, you'll have no problem picking up some very nice mid-round picks. Say, Rodgers in the 1st, and nab Brees or Brady if you can in the 3rd or 4th. Post draft, trade one of them for a top WR or solid #2 RB. If you pick top 3, then get your stud RB, and pick off two top QBs at the 2/3 turn. You will likely see the top 15 QBs gone by the 6th round.

In those kind of leagues there are usually 7 qbs off the board in two rounds. I would wait on a qb and get wrs/rbs along with Gronk or Graham.

I think this depends on your draft position. If you know that 7-10 Qbs will go off the board in the 1st 2 rounds, and you are able to get one of the top 3-5 guys, you have a huge advantage. Not only do you have that 5 ppg average over guys, but since they reached on a QB they don't get to make up the difference at another position.On the other hand if you miss on the top 5 guys and a bunch of other guys go off the board, you can probably wait even longer than normal for a starter since everyone else will have already drafted their QB.

 

[Tchula]

Unless they draft their backup qbs in a run before you draft a first. Been on the wrong end of that a time or 2. Round 6 for backup qbs? Ouch!

 

[wildbill]

In my experience guppies are better at drafting than they are at managing their teams. They'll waste roster spots on backup kickers, they'll hang on to guys who are injured and out for the season, and they'll forget to bench guys who are not playing that week. But the worst thing they do is ignore the waiver wire. I've had no trouble picking up solid players off waivers in my work league, despite being last on the priority list.

Even if you can't take advantage of their inexperience during the draft, you'll get plenty of opportunities during the season.

 

[Late225]

If it's an online draft, most guppy leaguers will draft almost exclusively from the predraft rankings the system has provided. I can usually use Yahoo (or whichever software your league uses) predraft rankings to determine who my league mates will pick next.