Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Looks like Baltimore opened at a 9.5 favorite. Not sure I will outright pick the Titans to win, but I think they will keep it close and they can absolutely win this game.
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AFC Divisional Round: Titans at Ravens - who wins? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Ghost Rider
- Start date
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I like titans +9.5
But....
Ravens could come out guns blazing.
Pats couldn’t capitalize on Tennessee mistakes. Ravens probably will.
but....
if the Titans can come out with success in the ground, they’ve got a puncher’s chance.
but...
I’m betting the Ravens are a little bummed they face the titans instead of the patriots.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Ravens 38-17
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
IheartGuinness
Footballguy
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
I think the Ravens win but 9.5 is too high IMO. However, I think the defense will cause enough turnovers to ultimately win the game
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Ah yes. Same point. I think the Titans are the toughest of the teams they could have faced.
msommer
Footballguy
I think the Ravens win (which sucks)
I hope the Titans win.
They are not without chances, but they (the chances) are not great. I think the point spread is a little larger than it will be in real life but probably reflects the likelyhood of an upset well
I hope the Titans win.
They are not without chances, but they (the chances) are not great. I think the point spread is a little larger than it will be in real life but probably reflects the likelyhood of an upset well
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DocHolliday
Footballguy
Ravens are going to win big.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
Tannehill was not good last night - I don’t see any way Ten sticks with Bal offense. 38-13
The_Man
Footballguy
Tennessee is used to wearing opponents out. That’s not going to happen - a lot of key Ravens are coming in on 20 days rest. Whereas Titans, especially Henry w consecutive games of 30+ carries, have been through a lot. I know they’ll try to get up for this game but last night might have been their Super Bowl.
Lamar has 130 passer rating over his last 8 games (along with 600+ rushing yards) and Ravens outscored opponents 289-116 during that stretch. Titans had 0 points and 80 yards in the second half last night until the pick-6.
I’m thinking 34-13
Lamar has 130 passer rating over his last 8 games (along with 600+ rushing yards) and Ravens outscored opponents 289-116 during that stretch. Titans had 0 points and 80 yards in the second half last night until the pick-6.
I’m thinking 34-13
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Okay, but that was against the number 1 defense (in both scoring and yards) that was being coached by Bill Belichick. I don't see Tannehill struggling that much next week, but D. Henry is the key of course. If he runs it well, they have a good chance to keep it close and pull the upset.
-OZ-
Footballguy
That's a safe bet.
If the Ravens get up two scores, it's going to be very tough for the Titans to play catch up against the best running team in the league. By far.
Sam Quentin
Footballguy
The Ravens will be rested
Henry has had a lot of carries
Vrabel is a good coach, maybe he can game plan this, but it’s a very uphill battle..
Henry has had a lot of carries
Vrabel is a good coach, maybe he can game plan this, but it’s a very uphill battle..
James Daulton
Footballguy
At this point in the season I'll take the Ravens pass D over the Pats. Pats have lost 4 of their last 6 games.
Won't be able to bust the Ravens in the mouth up the middle like they did to the Pats.
Ravens 30 Titans 20
The_Man
Footballguy
Over their last 9 games (corresponding with arrival of Marcus Peters and return of Jimmy Smith from injury), Ravens have held opposing QBs to passer rating of 72.7. Patriots allowed an 85.2 over the same span.
chinawildman
Footballguy
Most ppl picking the Titans here are probably fans of other playoff teams that don't wanna play the Ravens... I don't see this as a good matchup for the Titans. The Ravens D is vulnerable to speed on the edge, not smashmouth football. The one x-factor here is Vrabel though... he could write the start of his own Belichekian saga w/ a monumental upset here. Tannehill is also a much better QB than most ppl give him credit for.
The_Man
Footballguy
Holy crap, I shouldn’t have looked this up.
Only 2 Ravens home playoff games when the kickoff temp was above 60 degrees?
Jan. 3, 2004: 20-17 loss to Tennessee (only time the Ravens hosted Titans in the playoffs)
Jan. 13, 2007: 15-6 loss to Indy (only time the Ravens had a first round bye)
It was 63 for both games. It’s forecast to be 63 at kickoff Saturday night. How bizarre is that of the 7 home playoff games in Ravens history, 3 of them will have been played on a mid-60s January day in Baltimore?
Only 2 Ravens home playoff games when the kickoff temp was above 60 degrees?
Jan. 3, 2004: 20-17 loss to Tennessee (only time the Ravens hosted Titans in the playoffs)
Jan. 13, 2007: 15-6 loss to Indy (only time the Ravens had a first round bye)
It was 63 for both games. It’s forecast to be 63 at kickoff Saturday night. How bizarre is that of the 7 home playoff games in Ravens history, 3 of them will have been played on a mid-60s January day in Baltimore?
Crazy. I don’t remember much about the Titans game but the good weather certainly favored that Colts team. In this case I hope we somehow avoid rain, as I think good conditions favor our offense. So weird to think of as a Ravens fan!
The_Man
Footballguy
Another weird thing - both those games were Saturday games (though 4:30 kickoffs). I was at the Titans game. Eddie George played out of his mind, the Titans shut down Jamal, and shockingly Anthony Wright couldn't get much going on offense. 100-year-old Gary Anderson squeaked a 46-yard FG over the crossbar with 30 seconds left to win it, 20-17. If it had been a degree colder, the ball never would have made it. That was kind of the last hurrah for the great Titans of the late 90s / early 00s with McNair, Mason, George, Kearse, Rolle, etc. The franchise didn't win another playoff game until the 2017 Wild Card game vs. KC.
Starting to look like rain might be late in the game and light if/when it comes. Starting to keep an eye on the wind, though. I agree that Lamar seems to thrive in warm weather. For his faults, Flacco was a guy you loved to see in there when it was 20 degrees with a howling wind. He was as impervious to the elements as he was to every other external stimulus.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
The_Man
Footballguy
Looks like LB Jayon Brown will be out for the Titans. They already struggle to cover TEs and he's the best they have at that, which will present matchup problems vs the Ravens 3 TE passing attack.
Ingram practiced today, though Harbaugh said he was "limited." I think they suit him up, if only as an insurance policy since they have only 2 other RBs on the roster. But I'd expect his action to be limited, unless he's very close to 100%.
Weather looking springlike - mid-60s at kickoff, chance of rain almost nil, maybe a little breezy but nothing major.
Ingram practiced today, though Harbaugh said he was "limited." I think they suit him up, if only as an insurance policy since they have only 2 other RBs on the roster. But I'd expect his action to be limited, unless he's very close to 100%.
Weather looking springlike - mid-60s at kickoff, chance of rain almost nil, maybe a little breezy but nothing major.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
I rarely go all in on a favorite, but even with Henry I'm seeing a very tough path to a win.
I think Tannehill has a much better game. They didn't really even target AJ Brown which was surprising. Maybe that was NE focusing on Brown and taking him out and Tennessee not even trying. When he is being used it makes it really tough for defenses to load up on Henry. They compliment each other perfectly. I think it will be closer than most think but unless the layoff takes the Ravens off the game I just don't see how they lose. Ravens 38 - Tennessee 24
Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
both teams would be happy to shorten the game by running. Both teams have relatively, when it comes to the playoffs, inexperienced Q.B.'s. I think this may be somewhat lower scoring than predicted by many. I see the Ravens as the class of the league over the course of the season, but one game is not the course of the season, anything can happen. I guess the Ravens win this 9 out of ten times and so pick them to win, but I would take the Titans and the points were I betting.
I will be rooting for the Titans.
I will be rooting for the Titans.
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I think the Titans need to catch the Ravens off guard and go to the pass on first down early and often. They’ll load up to stop Henry so there could be some room in the passing game. Is Tannehill up for it? Will Vrabel roll the dice? No, they’ll pound Henry early, get behind and then their toast. Give the points.
-OZ-
Footballguy
It's entirely possible I'm delusional, but both teams like to run and have very good defenses. With the o/u 46.5, if I were a gambler I'd be betting big on the under. Things happen of course, and Lamar could go off, but I see a lot of short gains on both sides.
Honestly, Ravens should win by 2 scores. But I like the Titans chances better than I have in years.
Honestly, Ravens should win by 2 scores. But I like the Titans chances better than I have in years.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
titans cover
ravens win
ravens win
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
I could see a game where each offense runs less than 55 plays. The way each likes the ground game the clock could run with few stoppages. Does that lead to a low score, perhaps.
The_Man
Footballguy
In the Week 17 game vs Pittsburgh with RG3 at QB, the Ravens ran 65 plays. In the sodden slugfest vs SF, they ran 61. The Titans D isn't in the class of either of those teams - so I expect the Ravens to be in the area of 25 passes and 40 runs.
As I look at the excellent game Henry had last week vs New England, it strikes me that the Titans' 201 team rushing yards the Wild Card still came up about 5 yards short of what the Ravens averaged per game this season. Baltimore finished the season with 43 percent more yards rushing than the #2 team. TB led the NFL in passing this year - if they had been 43 percent ahead of the #2 team, they would have thrown for 6,794 yards.
I think there's a tendency to sometimes equate this year's Ravens with former Baltimore teams that would try to keep the score low and grind out defensive victories. My sense is that they don't necessarily try to play ball control and actually have an aggressive, attacking offense but that sometimes gets obscured because they do it on the ground in a way that no team has done for a long time. They're not looking for 4 yards and a cloud of dust - they're looking for 8 or 15 yards on almost every carry.
Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
Which was why I said "perhaps". I was just noting that both teams have a style that can keep the clock running.
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
Derrick Henry is the definition of speed on the edge if he gets there. But I do think its a tough ask for the Titans with the extra week of rest for the Ravens.
Tannehill is the top rated QB in that span. I'm not pretending he's better than Lamar but you're stats are painting it as a blistering advantage.
The Titans have Taylor Lewan who is the best LT in football when fired up. Conklin is a former all-pro and Saffold is as well, I think. Jones is a pro bowl alternate/pro bowl player some years...and then rookie Davis. Not to leave out possibly the best backup T in football in Kelly. This line was horrendous, ooh maybe they'll get it together, nope bad, and then...it finally clicked. The last several games have been pretty awesome for them. Henry's size doesn't care if an opponent is rested nor does his adonis physique, but the Ravens also have to fend off the line to get to him. It usually sets up one on one situations or two on two (with Jonnu or Blasingame- two big "fullbacks") and the Titans are often the side that wins that matchup enough to get a decent gain.
(Rare)When they do put Kelly in as a third tackle, the opponent usually brings a backer to the line and he always wins because most linemen win against a third OLB one on one. When teams react well, they'll bring in an extra DL but they usually don't the way subs go during a game.
The Titans may have changed coaches since exotic smashmouth and they don't run as many 3 TE sets, but there are still often two TEs and the mindset is still there. The Ravens will absolutely have a fight to battle to stop Henry. They're gonna be bruised and play so tough and...I expect a battle, but there's no way the 20 days of rest even matters in this regard. It's all mano y mano
Lamar reminds me of Randall when he was young and hot. He wasn't every game, but when he got in the zone. Every NFC east team, some NFC teams and then the NFL as a whole...they all got these big fast OLBs that could not only set the edge but get after anyone and beat any LT individually. The game evolved quickly (some had the OLBs before he burst on the scene) and Randall would become irrelevant until he became a pocket passer many years later. (Can Lamar punt? jk jk) Now that the NFL has these smallish quick LBs, Lamar and his blockers can totally dominate that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ATdqEqt_YQ
Lamar snaps it and runs/scrambles outside right away and in seconds it's like faaa do we have the guys to cover all the options? Meanwhile the OL and DL left where it was snapped seem pretty irrelevant to the play since he's nowhere near.
The Titans are bad at OLB. They have two guys that can fly to the QB in a speed move, but that's it. They have a former DE and a hustle type also. None of them shed blockers well or cover well. They're certainly nothing like LT, Banks, Bennett, Tippett, Manley and all those old types. Lamar could light the Titans up and be able to do anything he wants as they just won't be able to get there when he scrambles to make things happen.
I doubt they play much 3-4 at all. They gotta know this. Pees knows the Ravens too and it's just a horrendous matchup from the 3-4.
The Titans four most common sets though are not the 3-4. It's one DL(Casey) two DL(with Simmons), nickel, and three safety set. Those all matchup well in a chess match way that's over my head. They have better faster players on the field and it's different. Ingram can run against those but the Ravens gotta know the Titans would love to have an Ingram versus Henry duel.
With Jayon Brown out, that's a huge loss for this D. He's so fast and useful, he's played all four LB spots and was a college safety for 2-3 years. He'd be perfect for this game with the Ravens TEs and everything. The Titans backups at ILB are Long who is 220 and can't hack it in the tough shed blocker run game matchups but is athletic and Woodyard who is a veteran's veteran that has lost a step but uses his experience/intelligence to make tough plays.
Evans is a superb young LB that does everything well but then reminds you he's young with mistakes sometimes. He's never leaving the field and the Ravens probably employ a FB a bit more than lately to deal with him; if not, then the TE will go right at him after the snap. He's a fast handful to deal with.
The Titans secondary is filled with players that are excellent or super questionable. There's no good/average players. pees has been masterful at hiding the weak links lately, but this is where I'm worried about Lamar rolling to buy time. He's gonna find that matchup and the Titans can't afford to send a DB at him to hurry him up. The Titans depth is loaded with former starters at CB which made them seem stacked in preseason, but Brock, Sims, and Smith have all had several yuck games. Last week, they were excellent and against the Texans backups. The Ravens don't have the best WRs and it is possible the depth corners have a third real good week. This has been a masked weakness so we'll see.
The Ravens run something like the 3-4 4-3 hybrid. They run it so well and kudos to them. Vrabel ran it with the Pats. Pees has in the past. The Titans tried to implement that this summer but it didn't go so well and they barely showed it all year. The Titans definitely have the minds to dissect that defense. Tannehill did very well against the Titans doing it and the Pats this summer but it's been months. I expect a Ravens convincing win where Lamar dominates and an offseason discussing how Vrabel was signed to take them further in the playoffs but hasn't. Still though, between Henry and their knowledge of the Ravens D, they really could steal one here. Outside of Lamar, the Titans are a real bad matchup for the Ravens and match strength with strength well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ATdqEqt_YQ
Lamar snaps it and runs/scrambles outside right away and in seconds it's like faaa do we have the guys to cover all the options? Meanwhile the OL and DL left where it was snapped seem pretty irrelevant to the play since he's nowhere near.
The Titans are bad at OLB. They have two guys that can fly to the QB in a speed move, but that's it. They have a former DE and a hustle type also. None of them shed blockers well or cover well. They're certainly nothing like LT, Banks, Bennett, Tippett, Manley and all those old types. Lamar could light the Titans up and be able to do anything he wants as they just won't be able to get there when he scrambles to make things happen.
I doubt they play much 3-4 at all. They gotta know this. Pees knows the Ravens too and it's just a horrendous matchup from the 3-4.
The Titans four most common sets though are not the 3-4. It's one DL(Casey) two DL(with Simmons), nickel, and three safety set. Those all matchup well in a chess match way that's over my head. They have better faster players on the field and it's different. Ingram can run against those but the Ravens gotta know the Titans would love to have an Ingram versus Henry duel.
With Jayon Brown out, that's a huge loss for this D. He's so fast and useful, he's played all four LB spots and was a college safety for 2-3 years. He'd be perfect for this game with the Ravens TEs and everything. The Titans backups at ILB are Long who is 220 and can't hack it in the tough shed blocker run game matchups but is athletic and Woodyard who is a veteran's veteran that has lost a step but uses his experience/intelligence to make tough plays.
Evans is a superb young LB that does everything well but then reminds you he's young with mistakes sometimes. He's never leaving the field and the Ravens probably employ a FB a bit more than lately to deal with him; if not, then the TE will go right at him after the snap. He's a fast handful to deal with.
The Titans secondary is filled with players that are excellent or super questionable. There's no good/average players. pees has been masterful at hiding the weak links lately, but this is where I'm worried about Lamar rolling to buy time. He's gonna find that matchup and the Titans can't afford to send a DB at him to hurry him up. The Titans depth is loaded with former starters at CB which made them seem stacked in preseason, but Brock, Sims, and Smith have all had several yuck games. Last week, they were excellent and against the Texans backups. The Ravens don't have the best WRs and it is possible the depth corners have a third real good week. This has been a masked weakness so we'll see.
The Ravens run something like the 3-4 4-3 hybrid. They run it so well and kudos to them. Vrabel ran it with the Pats. Pees has in the past. The Titans tried to implement that this summer but it didn't go so well and they barely showed it all year. The Titans definitely have the minds to dissect that defense. Tannehill did very well against the Titans doing it and the Pats this summer but it's been months. I expect a Ravens convincing win where Lamar dominates and an offseason discussing how Vrabel was signed to take them further in the playoffs but hasn't. Still though, between Henry and their knowledge of the Ravens D, they really could steal one here. Outside of Lamar, the Titans are a real bad matchup for the Ravens and match strength with strength well.
The_Man
Footballguy
How many of the Patriots’ starting offensive players would start for either the Ravens or Titans?
I don’t know the Titans well enough to answer for them. Would you start Brady over Tannehill at this point? For Baltimore maybe you’d start New England’s Center over the undrafted rookie free agent who took over in Week 12 following Skura’s ACL tear and Edelman might (or might not) get the nod over Snead/Boykin to join Hollywood Brown in 2 WR sets (which the Ravens don’t do all that often) but that’s it
I don’t know the Titans well enough to answer for them. Would you start Brady over Tannehill at this point? For Baltimore maybe you’d start New England’s Center over the undrafted rookie free agent who took over in Week 12 following Skura’s ACL tear and Edelman might (or might not) get the nod over Snead/Boykin to join Hollywood Brown in 2 WR sets (which the Ravens don’t do all that often) but that’s it
