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AFC East a "Suspect" Division? (1 Viewer)

Joe Bryant

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Staff member
Anyone catch Jamie Dukes tonight on Total Access. Said the AFC East was a "suspect" division. Miami and New England not good enough? Granted Buffalo may not be much and the Jets look to be bad but Miami and New England at 50% of the conference make it far from suspect in my book.

Thoughts?

J

 
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I suppose I'd want to know what "suspect" meant. It's pretty clearly the weakest division in the AFC East at the top, and it might be the weakest at the bottom. On the other hand, I could see it being surprisingly competitive too.

 
Pats-As good a chance as any team in the AFC to win the conference.

Miami-Swing team. Could see them anywhere from a 7-11 win team. I'm not totaly sold on them but they have a nice schedule that could allow them to make noise.

NYJ-A complete unknown (especially with their QB situation). Obviously they're rebuilding and will probably have a tough year. The biggest question is on the sideline. If Mangini can get it done they're headed in the right direction. If not, there's a whole lotta trouble ahead.

Buffalo-A mess. Stuck in neutral and I don't see them getting out of it anytime soon.

Overall, it's probably a mediocre year for the division as both Buffalo and the Jets are real longshots to be good. Yet, it also would not be a shocker if both the Pats and Miami made a lot of noise come playoff time. As far as other divisions are concerned I can easily see scenarios where other divisions are better but I can also see scenarios where the AFC South (Houston remains nothing special and the Titans commit to a rookie QB early) and Central (Frye implodes and the Ravens continue to slide) are nothing special.

 
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We still don't know where CPep is at.

If hes not 100%, the Dolphins are a 6-10, 7-9 team with Harrington.

Bills might be competiting for the worst team in the league, and they'll probably have competition from the Jets.

Pats are a threat as always, but look weaker on D, and have alot of inexperience on O.

 
They clearly were a suspect division last year.

New England made the playoffs solely because of the division they were in. They probably don't even finish above .500 playing in the AFC West or AFC North.

Now as far as THIS year goes. BUF and NYJ problems are pretty well known. No one would go nuts if they both finished with less than six wins.

Miami had a nice little win streak against bad teams last year (which makes them .500ish in my book), but they aren't a team that is making a division look tough.

New England is a team everyone is expecting to come roaring back, but there's no real guarantee that they do. Three recent Super Bowls or not, they have a LOT to prove this year. Even if they are better than last year, them alone doesn't save the division from being suspect.

There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the AFC East this year. I don't think calling the division suspect is completely off base.

 
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We still don't know where CPep is at.

If hes not 100%, the Dolphins are a 6-10, 7-9 team with Harrington.

Bills might be competiting for the worst team in the league, and they'll probably have competition from the Jets.

Pats are a threat as always, but look weaker on D, and have alot of inexperience on O.
The Pats lost one starter from offense. How are they inexperienced? Are you taking into account Maroney, Jax, Thomas and Mills, none of who will be starting on opening day.They lost one starter from their D last year. They played last year with an absolutely depleted secondary as well as Seymour and Bruschi missing significant time. Once Seymour and Bruschi settled back in the D was one of the better units in the league. Their exposure on paper looks to be replacing Willie as well as LB depth (That scares me the most). Yet, unless the injury bug whacks them again I see this D being at least as good as the D they had at the end of the year.

 
Let's see the Jets and Bills have the two worst QB situations in the NFL, the Dolphins Could be good IF Culpepper is healthy (Harrington...ask Lion fans) , and the Pat are solid, but have weaknesses that would exploited if the division was stronger. Maybe not the worst (see NFC North), but questionable i.e suspect is a good way to describe the AFC East.

Edit: If I remember last year this time the AFC east was considered the best division on football like many of the "experts" are proclaiming about the NFC east. We never really know.

 
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I agree with this.

Patriots are a top 4 AFC team, the Dolphins will be a little over .500 most likely...

...and the Bills and the Jets could easily be two of the worst 5 teams in the entire NFL.

 
I don't beleive any of those teams could make the playoffs in any other division other then the NFC North....that alone makes them "suspect. Bills and Jets are likely to finish among leagues worst, Miami is a 500 ballclub at best, and NE's losses make them a borderline playoff team, at best, who will easily cruise into the playoffs after six games against the other three.

 
Did he say Conference or Division?
Hi CB,Sorry. Meant division.

J
No problem. Was thinking that if the original speaker had said that, it would be funny. I agree that it will be a weaker division than in previous years, but because it has been so strong in the past, the weakness is relative.

 
Looking at The Jets and Bills I can see why he would say The AFC East may be the worst division in The NFL. The Pats should be fairly sound although I have reservations about their defense,their offense will have no trouble scoring,Brady's turned into a top 3 QB,I think Dillon will have a nice rebound season. They have quality TE's and have shown in the past they can mix and match WR's and be succesful. I think the Dolphins make or break the division,they're an interesting team this year. Saban is doing a nice job bringing them back to respectability,whether or not that manifests itself this year or not of course depends a lot on Daunte's health,if he can come back reasonably soon they have the makings of a dynamite offense with Chambers,Brown and McMichael leading the way. I get the feeling they'll make a giant stride this year and think they'll make the playoffs. Their improvement and their schedule look good. Going into the season the division may be the weakest but if the Dolphins improve as I believe they will then the NFC North will settle for the worst.

 
We still don't know where CPep is at.

If hes not 100%, the Dolphins are a 6-10, 7-9 team with Harrington.

Bills might be competiting for the worst team in the league, and they'll probably have competition from the Jets.

Pats are a threat as always, but look weaker on D, and have alot of inexperience on O.
Harrington is better than the crap they kept putting on the field last year and they went 9-7.
 
We still don't know where CPep is at. 

If hes not 100%, the Dolphins are a 6-10, 7-9 team with Harrington.

Bills might be competiting for the worst team in the league, and they'll probably have competition from the Jets.

Pats are a threat as always, but look weaker on D, and have alot of inexperience on O.
Harrington is better than the crap they kept putting on the field last year and they went 9-7.
I guess you haven't watched the Lions all that much.
 
What do you mean :confused: :confused: :confused: ? His name is in the original post - so who the heck is he?
10 (or so) year Vet lineman, now doing sports radio in Atl. Think he played mostly with ATL, some with Cards and ??, Chiefs maybe. Never heard him speak before that show, he's very well spoken and had very good discourse with Rich.I don't think the AFC East is all that much worse than the AFC South. Texans and/or Titans probably will struggle every bit as much as the Jets/Bills. Then Jax = Mia (if CPep is good to go) and Indy (sans Edge = slower start) = Pats. /shrug. Just don't see a big difference.

 
What do you mean :confused: :confused: :confused: ? His name is in the original post - so who the heck is he?
10 (or so) year Vet lineman, now doing sports radio in Atl. Think he played mostly with ATL, some with Cards and ??, Chiefs maybe. Never heard him speak before that show, he's very well spoken and had very good discourse with Rich.I don't think the AFC East is all that much worse than the AFC South. Texans and/or Titans probably will struggle every bit as much as the Jets/Bills. Then Jax = Mia (if CPep is good to go) and Indy (sans Edge = slower start) = Pats. /shrug. Just don't see a big difference.
Thank you.
 
Patriots - 12-4

Jets - 7-9

Dolphins - 6-10

Bills - 4-12

I would have to agree...

And that 12-4 is from going 6-0 in the division... again....

 
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Anyone catch Jamie Dukes tonight on Total Access. Said the AFC East was a "suspect" division. Miami and New England not good enough? Granted Buffalo may not be much and the Jets look to be bad but Miami and New England at 50% of the conference make it far from suspect in my book.

Thoughts?

J
I completely agree. Buffalo and the Jets are sub 0.500 teams and New England with Gramatica instead of Vinatieri may lose a couple close games they used to win. Miami still remains to be seen how good they can be (read: Can Culpepper be at full health or does Joey Heisman lead them to a 5 win season).Probably none of those teams are division winners in any other conference.

 
One other thing about the Pats...their schedule is much more favorable than last years.

1 Sun, Sep 10 Buffalo

2 Sun, Sep 17 at NY Jets

3 Sun, Sep 24 Denver

4 Sun, Oct 1 at Cincinnati

5 Sun, Oct 8 Miami

6 BYE WEEK

7 Sun, Oct 22 at Buffalo

8 Mon, Oct 30 at Minnesota

9 Sun, Nov 5 Indianapolis

10 Sun, Nov 12 NY Jets

11 Sun, Nov 19 at Green Bay

12 Sun, Nov 26 Chicago

13 Sun, Dec 3 Detroit

14 Sun, Dec 10 at Miami

15 Sun, Dec 17 Houston

16 Sun, Dec 24 at Jacksonville

17 Sun, Dec 31 at Tennessee

Last year the Pats got hit with the perfect storm early. They got devastated by injuries during the hardest part of their schedule which made them incredibly vulnerable. One other thing which many non-Patriot fans probably don't realize is the bullseye on the Pats early last year was as big as it got. Since they were the two time champ their opponents were treating games against them like they were playoff games. The intensity was definetly a notch higher than typical regular season games. It was a very tough situation which most teams would have folded. The fact the Pats were able to regroup, win double digit games as well as a playoff games really is underappreciated.

 
One other thing about the Pats...their schedule is much more favorable than last years.

1 Sun, Sep 10 Buffalo

2 Sun, Sep 17 at NY Jets

3 Sun, Sep 24 Denver

4 Sun, Oct 1 at Cincinnati

5 Sun, Oct 8 Miami

6 BYE WEEK

7 Sun, Oct 22 at Buffalo

8 Mon, Oct 30 at Minnesota

9 Sun, Nov 5 Indianapolis

10 Sun, Nov 12 NY Jets

11 Sun, Nov 19 at Green Bay

12 Sun, Nov 26 Chicago

13 Sun, Dec 3 Detroit

14 Sun, Dec 10 at Miami

15 Sun, Dec 17 Houston

16 Sun, Dec 24 at Jacksonville

17 Sun, Dec 31 at Tennessee

Last year the Pats got hit with the perfect storm early. They got devastated by injuries during the hardest part of their schedule which made them incredibly vulnerable. One other thing which many non-Patriot fans probably don't realize is the bullseye on the Pats early last year was as big as it got. Since they were the two time champ their opponents were treating games against them like they were playoff games. The intensity was definetly a notch higher than typical regular season games. It was a very tough situation which most teams would have folded. The fact the Pats were able to regroup, win double digit games as well as a playoff games really is underappreciated.
I don't think it would be too tough to make the case that outside of Pittsburgh, New England beat every team it was better than and lost to every team it was worse than.NE was clearly better than Mia, NYJ(2x), Buf(2x), NO, Oak, TB, Atl

NE wasn't as good as Ind, @Car, @Den, @KC or Miami without Brady.

New England lost to a very good San Diego team at home, and beat a very good Pittsburgh team on the road. Outside of that they really played to their schedule. Overall I was most impressed with Brady and the offense. I've always been a big Weis fan, and obviously his tremendous ability was reaffirmed in ND this year. But NE somehow managed to move on without a hitch, which wasn't what I'd expect. (They were worse on offense than in 2004, but that was exclusively due to Dillon's steep decline.)

 
We still don't know where CPep is at. 

If hes not 100%, the Dolphins are a 6-10, 7-9 team with Harrington.

Bills might be competiting for the worst team in the league, and they'll probably have competition from the Jets.

Pats are a threat as always, but look weaker on D, and have alot of inexperience on O.
The Pats lost one starter from offense. How are they inexperienced? Are you taking into account Maroney, Jax, Thomas and Mills, none of who will be starting on opening day.They lost one starter from their D last year. They played last year with an absolutely depleted secondary as well as Seymour and Bruschi missing significant time. Once Seymour and Bruschi settled back in the D was one of the better units in the league. Their exposure on paper looks to be replacing Willie as well as LB depth (That scares me the most). Yet, unless the injury bug whacks them again I see this D being at least as good as the D they had at the end of the year.
How are a bunch of rookies inexperienced? Seems like a definitional answer there.Tom Brady and Ben Watson are the only real certainties on that team. Dillon looks broken down, Branch doesn't want to show up, Caldwell has been extremely mediocre, Light is returning from injury, Brown is old enough to be a grandfather, Kaczur, Mankins, et al played well last year, but are still unproven.

This offense could be good, but it could also get ugly real quickly.

 
One other thing about the Pats...their schedule is much more favorable than last years.

1 Sun, Sep 10 Buffalo

2 Sun, Sep 17 at NY Jets

3 Sun, Sep 24 Denver

4 Sun, Oct 1 at Cincinnati

5 Sun, Oct 8 Miami

6 BYE WEEK

7 Sun, Oct 22 at Buffalo

8 Mon, Oct 30 at Minnesota

9 Sun, Nov 5 Indianapolis

10 Sun, Nov 12 NY Jets

11 Sun, Nov 19 at Green Bay

12 Sun, Nov 26 Chicago

13 Sun, Dec 3 Detroit

14 Sun, Dec 10 at Miami

15 Sun, Dec 17 Houston

16 Sun, Dec 24 at Jacksonville

17 Sun, Dec 31 at Tennessee

Last year the Pats got hit with the perfect storm early. They got devastated by injuries during the hardest part of their schedule which made them incredibly vulnerable. One other thing which many non-Patriot fans probably don't realize is the bullseye on the Pats early last year was as big as it got. Since they were the two time champ their opponents were treating games against them like they were playoff games. The intensity was definetly a notch higher than typical regular season games. It was a very tough situation which most teams would have folded. The fact the Pats were able to regroup, win double digit games as well as a playoff games really is underappreciated.
Wow - I'm struggling to find ANY losses on that schedule. Maybe Cincy only if Palmer is healthy. Maybe Denver because of matchup problems. That's it.
 
One other thing about the Pats...their schedule is much more favorable than last years.

1 Sun, Sep 10 Buffalo

2 Sun, Sep 17 at NY Jets

3 Sun, Sep 24 Denver

4 Sun, Oct 1 at Cincinnati

5 Sun, Oct 8 Miami

6 BYE WEEK

7 Sun, Oct 22 at Buffalo

8 Mon, Oct 30 at Minnesota

9 Sun, Nov 5 Indianapolis

10 Sun, Nov 12 NY Jets

11 Sun, Nov 19 at Green Bay

12 Sun, Nov 26 Chicago

13 Sun, Dec 3 Detroit

14 Sun, Dec 10 at Miami

15 Sun, Dec 17 Houston

16 Sun, Dec 24 at Jacksonville

17 Sun, Dec 31 at Tennessee

Last year the Pats got hit with the perfect storm early. They got devastated by injuries during the hardest part of their schedule which made them incredibly vulnerable. One other thing which many non-Patriot fans probably don't realize is the bullseye on the Pats early last year was as big as it got. Since they were the two time champ their opponents were treating games against them like they were playoff games. The intensity was definetly a notch higher than typical regular season games. It was a very tough situation which most teams would have folded. The fact the Pats were able to regroup, win double digit games as well as a playoff games really is underappreciated.
Wow - I'm struggling to find ANY losses on that schedule. Maybe Cincy only if Palmer is healthy. Maybe Denver because of matchup problems. That's it.
Sep 17 and Nov 12 down? ;)

 
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One other thing about the Pats...their schedule is much more favorable than last years. 

1 Sun, Sep 10 Buffalo

2 Sun, Sep 17 at NY Jets

3 Sun, Sep 24 Denver

4 Sun, Oct 1 at Cincinnati

5 Sun, Oct 8 Miami

6 BYE WEEK

7 Sun, Oct 22 at Buffalo 

8 Mon, Oct 30 at Minnesota

9 Sun, Nov 5 Indianapolis

10 Sun, Nov 12 NY Jets

11 Sun, Nov 19 at Green Bay

12 Sun, Nov 26 Chicago

13 Sun, Dec 3 Detroit

14 Sun, Dec 10 at Miami

15 Sun, Dec 17 Houston

16 Sun, Dec 24 at Jacksonville

17 Sun, Dec 31 at Tennessee

Last year the Pats got hit with the perfect storm early.  They got devastated by injuries during the hardest part of their schedule which made them incredibly vulnerable.  One other thing which many non-Patriot fans probably don't realize is the bullseye on the Pats early last year was as big as it got.  Since they were the two time champ their opponents were treating games against them like they were playoff games.  The intensity was definetly a notch higher than typical regular season games.  It was a very tough situation which most teams would have folded.  The fact the Pats were able to regroup, win double digit games as well as a playoff games really is underappreciated.
Wow - I'm struggling to find ANY losses on that schedule. Maybe Cincy only if Palmer is healthy. Maybe Denver because of matchup problems. That's it.
Sep 17 and Nov 12 down? ;)
:lmao:
 
I agree that it's suspect.

New England is still in the midst of adjusting to the first major roster turnover they've had since they won those championships. Their coaching is still good enough that they should make the playoffs and win that division.

Miami surprised a lot of people last year with their overachieving. I'm still not sold on their overall talent level though. In my mind I equate them with Jacksonville who ended up last year with a record that was far better than the team was IMHO.

 
We still don't know where CPep is at. 

If hes not 100%, the Dolphins are a 6-10, 7-9 team with Harrington.

Bills might be competiting for the worst team in the league, and they'll probably have competition from the Jets.

Pats are a threat as always, but look weaker on D, and have alot of inexperience on O.
The Pats lost one starter from offense. How are they inexperienced? Are you taking into account Maroney, Jax, Thomas and Mills, none of who will be starting on opening day.They lost one starter from their D last year. They played last year with an absolutely depleted secondary as well as Seymour and Bruschi missing significant time. Once Seymour and Bruschi settled back in the D was one of the better units in the league. Their exposure on paper looks to be replacing Willie as well as LB depth (That scares me the most). Yet, unless the injury bug whacks them again I see this D being at least as good as the D they had at the end of the year.
How are a bunch of rookies inexperienced? Seems like a definitional answer there.Tom Brady and Ben Watson are the only real certainties on that team. Dillon looks broken down, Branch doesn't want to show up, Caldwell has been extremely mediocre, Light is returning from injury, Brown is old enough to be a grandfather, Kaczur, Mankins, et al played well last year, but are still unproven.

This offense could be good, but it could also get ugly real quickly.
It all begins in the trenches. Mankins and Kazcur now have a year under their belt. Mankins has a chance to be a very good one and Kazcur looks to be a fixture for years. Neal is back. Everything I've read says Light is fine. Koppen is still a question mark but Hochstein is a more than capable replacement who has a ton of experience. Gorin is another bacxkup who has started a Super Bowl game. They also added what looks to be some very nice prospects in the draft in the kids ferom ND and Cal. They also go deeper than that with some other prospects who have been in their system for a few years. That neans they have five guys who have started in a Super Bowl (two who don't even start) and don't have one Olineman older than 28. Not only do I expect this unit to be better than last year but I expect it to be vastly better.At QB, Brady is as good as it gets and he's just entering his prime. He also played a good portion of last year with a legit injury.

RB was a mess last year as Faulk, Pass and Dillon were all hurt. They were forced to start a street free agent it got so bad. All three are now healthy. Dillon is obviously a question mark but Maroney adds a young pair of legs that cold be very explosive. Mills will also potentially contribute here (as well as TE and Hback) although the early word is he's not transistioning as smoothly as Maroney and Thomas to the pro game.

TE has Watson who should be better. He was basically a rookie last year. Graham is back and is as good a blocking TE as there is. He also missed games due to injury last year. Fauria is gone but they have a chance to better with the Thomas addition but that remains to be seen.

Wr is their biggest question mark. It could be a lot better or a lot worse. Last year you had stiffs like Bethel, Davis and Dwight playing. They were all pretty much non-factors. Givens and Brown both missed time due to injury which made the lack of depth that much more damaging. Branch was their only constant. This year Givens is gone. Yet, they added Jackson and Caldwell. Whether either one can match what Givens did a very legit concern. Yet, on the flipside they can not match Givens but if they both play well their WR unit could be better as it will be deeper.

One other area the Pats should be improved is at OC. Last year losing Weis hurt. Early in the year there was a very rocky transistion. The injuries with a new playcaller was a very tough situation and quite frankly it was very ugly at times. Yet, as the season wore on McDaniels definetly improved and there's no reason to think he won't be more comfortable this year...especially since he'll have more weapons to work with.

Overall, unless the injury bug kills them like last year Oline, RB, TE and QB have a very good chance of being better in 06 than they were in 05. As for WR that remains to be seen. That is their biggest question mark by far. If the running game bounces and the TEs are as advertised that will take pressure off of the wideouts and make it easier for Jax and Caldwell to transistion.

Right now I'm very confident that their offense will be much more balanced and smoother than 05. Obviously injuries are always a concern but it's almost impossible (knock on wood) to have as many injuries as they had in 05 again.

 
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I agree that it's suspect. 

New England is still in the midst of adjusting to the first major roster turnover they've had since they won those championships.  Their coaching is still good enough that they should make the playoffs and win that division. 

.
The Pats lost two starting Dlineman (Ted and Hamilton) as well as an O lineman (Woody) after their 04 championship. You can also add in Ty Law and Ty Poole because they missed a huge chunk of 05 as well due to injuries. That's five starters (four on defense). They currently have lost two starters going into this year in Willie and Givens.The only starters that played in all three title teams were Bruschi, Willie, Phifer/Johnson (they often flipflopped), Seymour, Light, Brady and Andruzzi (as well as AV...Law was there but was hurt in 05). The Pats have dealt with turnover every single year under BB. That's one of the big reasons they've been able to maintain a healthy salary cap situation.

 
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Anyone catch Jamie Dukes tonight on Total Access. Said the AFC East was a "suspect" division. Miami and New England not good enough? Granted Buffalo may not be much and the Jets look to be bad but Miami and New England at 50% of the conference make it far from suspect in my book.

Thoughts?

J
He was addressing the Division form the perspective of the Dolphins while discussing which QB with a new team would have the most success. If you are the dolphins or the Pats the division would be considered weak. From the Dolphins perspective, the Pats, while still one of the eliete teams in the NFL have lost a step or 2 since 2004. The Bills are clearly in the bottom quarter of the league and IMO the Jets will challenge for the #1 pick in the draft next year.

 
I agree that it's suspect. 

New England is still in the midst of adjusting to the first major roster turnover they've had since they won those championships.  Their coaching is still good enough that they should make the playoffs and win that division. 

.
The Pats lost two starting Dlineman (Ted and Hamilton) as well as an O lineman (Woody) after their 04 championship. You can also add in Ty Law and Ty Poole because they missed a huge chunk of 05 as well due to injuries. That's five starters (four on defense). They currently have lost two starters going into this year in Willie and Givens.The only starters that played in all three title teams were Bruschi, Willie, Phifer/Johnson (they often flipflopped), Seymour, Light, Brady and Andruzzi (as well as AV...Law was there but was hurt in 05). The Pats have dealt with turnover every single year under BB. That's one of the big reasons they've been able to maintain a healthy salary cap situation.
Don't be so restrictive and don't overreact. I think that Givens was their best WR, and Dillon seems pretty clearly to be on his last legs. That's all I'm talking about. Also, while I realized that they changed over personnel during their championship run, I don't get the sense (my own personal opinion) that the changeover will be as smooth this time around. I'm certainly not putting them into the category of San Francisco or other truly rebuilding teams. I did after all predict they'd win their division.

 
I agree that it's suspect. 

New England is still in the midst of adjusting to the first major roster turnover they've had since they won those championships.  Their coaching is still good enough that they should make the playoffs and win that division. 

.
The Pats lost two starting Dlineman (Ted and Hamilton) as well as an O lineman (Woody) after their 04 championship. You can also add in Ty Law and Ty Poole because they missed a huge chunk of 05 as well due to injuries. That's five starters (four on defense). They currently have lost two starters going into this year in Willie and Givens.The only starters that played in all three title teams were Bruschi, Willie, Phifer/Johnson (they often flipflopped), Seymour, Light, Brady and Andruzzi (as well as AV...Law was there but was hurt in 05). The Pats have dealt with turnover every single year under BB. That's one of the big reasons they've been able to maintain a healthy salary cap situation.
Don't be so restrictive and don't overreact. I think that Givens was their best WR, and Dillon seems pretty clearly to be on his last legs. That's all I'm talking about. Also, while I realized that they changed over personnel during their championship run, I don't get the sense (my own personal opinion) that the changeover will be as smooth this time around. I'm certainly not putting them into the category of San Francisco or other truly rebuilding teams. I did after all predict they'd win their division.
I'm not overreacting...just trying to keep the facts straight. Now, whether you think this year will be more rocky is fine with me. That's your opinion and I'm sure you can make a case for it. I'm of the opposite opinion that nothing will ever be as rocky as last year where they lost two long term cooridinators, were devastated by injuries that wiped out three whole units (Ol, RB and Db) as well as studs like Harrison, Bruschi, Dillon, Seymour, Koppen and Light for extended periods of time (as well as Brady being banged up), had a horrible offseason as far as free agency goes, had a very tough schedule while they were getting injured and had a monster bullseye because they were the two time champ. It was as bad as it gets and I believe that this year they will benefit from that adversity and you'll see a much tougher (and hungrier) team.
 
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One other thing about the Pats...their schedule is much more favorable than last years.

1 Sun, Sep 10 Buffalo

2 Sun, Sep 17 at NY Jets

3 Sun, Sep 24 Denver

4 Sun, Oct 1 at Cincinnati

5 Sun, Oct 8 Miami

6 BYE WEEK

7 Sun, Oct 22 at Buffalo

8 Mon, Oct 30 at Minnesota

9 Sun, Nov 5 Indianapolis

10 Sun, Nov 12 NY Jets

11 Sun, Nov 19 at Green Bay

12 Sun, Nov 26 Chicago

13 Sun, Dec 3 Detroit

14 Sun, Dec 10 at Miami

15 Sun, Dec 17 Houston

16 Sun, Dec 24 at Jacksonville

17 Sun, Dec 31 at Tennessee

Last year the Pats got hit with the perfect storm early. They got devastated by injuries during the hardest part of their schedule which made them incredibly vulnerable. One other thing which many non-Patriot fans probably don't realize is the bullseye on the Pats early last year was as big as it got. Since they were the two time champ their opponents were treating games against them like they were playoff games. The intensity was definetly a notch higher than typical regular season games. It was a very tough situation which most teams would have folded. The fact the Pats were able to regroup, win double digit games as well as a playoff games really is underappreciated.
I don't think it would be too tough to make the case that outside of Pittsburgh, New England beat every team it was better than and lost to every team it was worse than.NE was clearly better than Mia, NYJ(2x), Buf(2x), NO, Oak, TB, Atl

NE wasn't as good as Ind, @Car, @Den, @KC or Miami without Brady.

New England lost to a very good San Diego team at home, and beat a very good Pittsburgh team on the road. Outside of that they really played to their schedule. Overall I was most impressed with Brady and the offense. I've always been a big Weis fan, and obviously his tremendous ability was reaffirmed in ND this year. But NE somehow managed to move on without a hitch, which wasn't what I'd expect. (They were worse on offense than in 2004, but that was exclusively due to Dillon's steep decline.)
Let's be honest, any offense is going to struggle when you grab Heath Evans to run the ball in the 4th game of the year, because the top 3 backs are out. The 4 of the starting 5 linemen miss signifigant time, with two missing over half of the season, and two rookies playing almost all of the season. Weis was a huge loss, and a contributing factor, but there were many reasons NE struggled on O last year. With Weis' magic they maybe overcomve the injuries. Without it, they almost did. Brady has the worst playoff game of his career, and they still had a chance to beat Denver in Denver. As to the division. Any team that hires #### Jauron to be a head coach has no direction. They reaffirmed this at the draft. Buffalo os drifting, and will wallow with Detroit at the bottom, until they make changes. Maybe they can pull off a Jauron for Millen trade this season?

The Jets had a great draft. Depending on how well take to the system, and how well the new chandalleir in the league, Pennington, comes back, they could win from 4-8 games. They are not devoid of talent, but they were devoid of direction. Some weeks they looked real good, and others, like they had other things to do. I'm not a be Herm guy. I've seen too much inconsistency out of his players. It's him. I expect the same in KC. There's adequate talent in NY to compete, but not win the division.

Miami has a great coach. I disagree about Harrington. Buffalo hired Jauron from Detroit. Enough said about the coaching ability he was getting there (I know he was on the D-side, but he was the best fill in for the interim job). He cannot beat out Pepper, but he's a servicable fill in until Pepper gets back, and an upgrade over anybody they had last year. Miami's D is againg, quickly, but they're still solid. I se them around 10 wins.

The Pats. I see 12-13 wins. Beisel will be much improved in the middle, giving more flexibility with Vrabel back on the outside. Colvin is also back to 100%.. Our front 3 is as good as anybody in the league with Seymour , Wilfork and Warren. Depth is an issue, as it is on all teams, and there are some fliers. The secondary was much improved in the second half. Injuries were simply devestating. Oh yeah, and Bruschi is back 100%, though a little longer in the tooth. Brady wll be Brady, and the picks will be back down as he can be much less aggressive with better RB depth, and and year experience for Kaczur and Mankins. Koppen is back. Take the starting RB (he was never healthy) nor were Faulk or Pass, C, OT, G, both safeties and both CB's off of any team in the league, and see if they can win their division, and a playoff game. The pats did, and people want to say they they were lucky to win their division? They showed why they have 3 of the last 5 Lombardis. They just kept coming. They'd get blown out, and bounce back and win. It was a tough, but impressive, season. I expect a much better campaign this time around.

 
Anyone catch Jamie Dukes tonight on Total Access. Said the AFC East was a "suspect" division. Miami and New England not good enough? Granted Buffalo may not be much and the Jets look to be bad but Miami and New England at 50% of the conference make it far from suspect in my book.

Thoughts?

J
I don't disagree with this assessment. I think the AFC East, NFC West, and NFC North will all be in a dogfight for worst division in the NFL.New England was lucky to win the division last year. If you swapped New England and Oakland, New England would have finished dead last in the AFC West. Miami is seriously overhyped based on a 5-game winning streak (of which only SD was a victory worth noting). The Jest are trying out my cousin at Quarterback, and the Bills... actually, I think the Bills have a great chance of winning the division this season.

 
One other thing about the Pats...their schedule is much more favorable than last years.

1 Sun, Sep 10 Buffalo

2 Sun, Sep 17 at NY Jets

3 Sun, Sep 24 Denver

4 Sun, Oct 1 at Cincinnati

5 Sun, Oct 8 Miami

6 BYE WEEK

7 Sun, Oct 22 at Buffalo

8 Mon, Oct 30 at Minnesota

9 Sun, Nov 5 Indianapolis

10 Sun, Nov 12 NY Jets

11 Sun, Nov 19 at Green Bay

12 Sun, Nov 26 Chicago

13 Sun, Dec 3 Detroit

14 Sun, Dec 10 at Miami

15 Sun, Dec 17 Houston

16 Sun, Dec 24 at Jacksonville

17 Sun, Dec 31 at Tennessee

Last year the Pats got hit with the perfect storm early. They got devastated by injuries during the hardest part of their schedule which made them incredibly vulnerable. One other thing which many non-Patriot fans probably don't realize is the bullseye on the Pats early last year was as big as it got. Since they were the two time champ their opponents were treating games against them like they were playoff games. The intensity was definetly a notch higher than typical regular season games. It was a very tough situation which most teams would have folded. The fact the Pats were able to regroup, win double digit games as well as a playoff games really is underappreciated.
Probable Losses to - 75% = 2.1 lossesDenver

at Cincy

Indy

Possible Losses to - 50% = 1.5 losses

Chicago

at Jax

at Miami

Doubtful Losses to - 25% = 1.25 losses

at Minnesota

at Green Bay

Miami

at Jets

at Buffalo

Highly Doubtful Losses to - 10% = .5 losses

the other 5 games

5.35 losses = 11-5 or 10-6

That's how I see it anyway.

 
One other thing about the Pats...their schedule is much more favorable than last years. 

1 Sun, Sep 10 Buffalo

2 Sun, Sep 17 at NY Jets

3 Sun, Sep 24 Denver

4 Sun, Oct 1 at Cincinnati

5 Sun, Oct 8 Miami

6 BYE WEEK

7 Sun, Oct 22 at Buffalo 

8 Mon, Oct 30 at Minnesota

9 Sun, Nov 5 Indianapolis

10 Sun, Nov 12 NY Jets

11 Sun, Nov 19 at Green Bay

12 Sun, Nov 26 Chicago

13 Sun, Dec 3 Detroit

14 Sun, Dec 10 at Miami

15 Sun, Dec 17 Houston

16 Sun, Dec 24 at Jacksonville

17 Sun, Dec 31 at Tennessee

Last year the Pats got hit with the perfect storm early.  They got devastated by injuries during the hardest part of their schedule which made them incredibly vulnerable.  One other thing which many non-Patriot fans probably don't realize is the bullseye on the Pats early last year was as big as it got.  Since they were the two time champ their opponents were treating games against them like they were playoff games.  The intensity was definetly a notch higher than typical regular season games.  It was a very tough situation which most teams would have folded.  The fact the Pats were able to regroup, win double digit games as well as a playoff games really is underappreciated.
Probable Losses to - 75% = 2.1 lossesDenver

at Cincy

Indy

Possible Losses to - 50% = 1.5 losses

Chicago

at Jax

at Miami

Doubtful Losses to - 25% = 1.25 losses

at Minnesota

at Green Bay

Miami

at Jets

at Buffalo

Highly Doubtful Losses to - 10% = .5 losses

the other 5 games

5.35 losses = 11-5 or 10-6

That's how I see it anyway.
But you either win or lose . . . you can't do both in the same game. If they lose 2, 1, 1, and 0 in the brackets you listed, then they'd have 12 wins.As I see it, they will go 5-1 in the division (losing at Miami), have a home loss to Denver or Indy, and another road loss somewhere. Besides that, they have all their tough games at home and have a much easier road schedule.

They blew the doors off of Jacksonville last year, so I have a hard time thinking they would lose to the Jags. Maybe Cincy.

I don't really think of N.E. as a 13 win team, but I also have a hard time finding many more loses either.

The Pats played dramatically better last year once they stemmed the tide of injuries (which coincided with the softer part of their schedule).

Had Brady not been picked for a 100 yard interception, it's not out of the question that the Pats could have been playing at home for the right to go to SB last year. Give the Pats a TD instead of the Broncos a TD and IMO N.E. would have won. Of course, that's not how it happened so it's a moot point.

 
Patriots seem to have gotten worse this offseason. Jets and Bills are both a mess. Dolphins appear to be on the rise, but are probably still a year away from being competitive with the best teams from the conference. The division was suspect last year and I don't see that changing much this year.

 
We still don't know where CPep is at.

If hes not 100%, the Dolphins are a 6-10, 7-9 3-13, 4-12 team with Harrington or a 6-10, 7-9 team snapping the ball directly to Ronnie Brown.

Bills might be competiting for the worst team in the league, and they'll probably have competition from the Jets.

Pats are a threat as always, but look weaker on D, and have alot of inexperience on O.
Fixed.
 
I would agree with the consensus Miami opinion mentioned previously.The homer in me would love to say division winner in 06, but NE still looks like the cream of the crop for another year.It sure does look like a far cry from the normally strong AFC East division battles of the past where you usually had one patsy out of the four teams on a yearly basis.....

 
Every year there is a Division that people look at during the offseason and say "that Division is the worst in football." It never seems to play out that way however. NE will be very good and threaten for the Conf Champ as much as people do not want that to happen. Mia was a better than average team last year and seems to have improved in the area they needed to most, QB. NYJ and Buf I have no idea what whill happen with, but I'd bet that at least one of these teams plays a good bet better than the garbage everyone has them pegged for.

 

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