There have been some interesting posts in this thread, the very large majority of posters demonstrate the football knowledge that this forum possesses. The "match-up" discussion is what I like. As the AFC playoff picture solidified, most left the Chargers out of the equation - at least I did. I really don't know how they fit in. We've seen the Ravens face: Pittsburgh twice (early and late in the season); the Colts, Titans and Dolphins (early in the season). The Colts have played the Titans twice (not sure what we can take from week 17 though); the Steelers; the Ravens; and the Chargers. The Titans have played all but the Dolphins and the Chargers.
From those games we know that the Colts match-up well against the Ravens, they will be prohibited favorites against Baltimore if they face each other. The Ravens match-up well against Miami, Pittsburgh and Tennessee. I'm a Ravens fan and saw them outplay both Pitt and Tenn for three quarters ealy in the season. Very questionable officiating calls helped make the difference in the Ravens-Titans game and both Steeler-Ravens games. Tennessee matches up well against Pittsburgh and Indy, not so well against Baltimore. San Diego has shown that they match-up well with Indy, but the Chargers have some serious injury ??? that could diminish any advantage that they possess. I think Miami probably matches up best with the Chargers, but I'm not sure that they can beat any of the AFC playoff contenders.
IMHO:
Baltimore
Ravens matchup well with Miami. OC Cameron knows the personnel on both sides of the ball for Miami. Baltimore's defensive weakness is the banged up secondary, Miami doesn't have the personnel to take advantage of this. Baltimore should be able to shut down the Miami rushing attack, minimize the TE and put pressure on Pennington. Baltimore's Oline should have a push allowing Bmore to have success running the ball. The Ravens have an advantage over any team that's offense is predicated on running the ball. They have trouble with teams that are adept at passing. The only exceptions this year have been against the Giants, where they were physically dominated in the rushing game, and against the Eagles, where HC Harbaugh's knowledge of Reid's WC offense made a huge difference in shutting down the passing game.
Advantageous matchups: Pitts, Tenn, Miami
Disadvantageous matchups: Indy (if they meet, this game would be played inside at Indy)
Unknown: SD
Pittsburgh
The Steelers match-up much better against prolific passing teams than do the Ravens. They do not shut down the run quite as well as Baltimore, nor do they run as well. Offensively they do a better job moving the ball through the air.
Advantageous matchups: Indy, Miami, SD (this game would be played in Pitts)
Less advantageous matchups: Balt, Tenn
Tennessee
The Titans have a poor passing attack, the worst of any AFC playoff team. They play well on both sides of the ball defensively and have a very good pass D. The dominant running game doesn't matchup well against Baltimore or Pittsburgh.
Advantageous matchups: Miami, Indy, SD
Disadvantageous matchups: Balt, Pitt
Indianapolis
The Colts have Peyton Manning! When healthy, they have a speedy, attacking defense. The often injured Sanders needs to play to keep this D strong. They run the ball well if the passing game is working and have demonstrated an ineffectiveness or inconsistency in this aspect of their offense. The pedestrian rushing attack could be this team's achilles heel outdoors in their playoff run.
Advantageous match-ups: Balt
Disadvantageous match-ups: Miami, Pitt, Tenn, SD (depending on their health)
Miami
Miami has feasted on weak competition. Balt, Pitt & Tenn will not allow the rushing attack to succeed and throw a huge monkey wrench in the play-action passing attack. I don't think Miami will produce enough points against either of these three teams to win. I also don't think that Miami will be able to shut down Balt or Tenn's rushing attack. Miami should be able to run the ball effectively against both Indy and SD allowing their play-action passing game to work.
Advantageous match-ups: Indy, SD
Disadvantageous match-ups: Balt, Pitt, Tenn
San Diego
The Chargers have a great passing attack when they can get it on track and a poor defense. The rushing attack has been more down than up this year. They won't face any weak D's in the playoffs, they will struggle. They match-up best against the Colts, whom they play at home.
Advantageous match-ups: Indy, Balt
Disadvantageous match-ups: Pitts, Tenn