AFCCG: Steelers at Patriots Discussion (2 Viewers)

[Anarchy99]

Let's be real here, Pittsburgh is a much tougher matchup for the Pat's than KC would have been. 

I'm not sure I buy this one. IMO, KC would have been a tougher match up for the Pats. KC plays more similar to NE. They usually don't beat themselves, don't turn the ball over, force a lot of turnovers, keep the game close, and have no problem taking small chunks of yardage to sustain drives and play keep away.

PIT has shown they haven't figured out how to stop Brady, He is 9-2 lifetime against PIT with a 26-3 TD to INT ratio and a 113.7 passer rating with NE averaging 31 ppg in those games. It's even uglier looking just at the Foxboro games. 4-0, 37 ppg, with a 131.8 passer rating (that is not a typo) and a 15-0 TD to INT ratio.

Furthering the match up comparison of PIT vs. KC, PIT has a tendency to do stupid things, Ben will take undo risks and turn the ball over, and in general PIT is much better at home vs. on the road. Leaving the Steelers out of it, Brady with NE has a 16-3 record playing in NE in the post season. I agree the upside for the Steelers if everything works out is greater than the same situation for the Chiefs.

Since the infamous beat down in KC in 2014, the Pats have averaged 34 points and change per game playing at home with Brady (in games they played their starters). Their lowest scoring game (out of 23) was 20 points with the next lowest game 24 points. They scored 30+ in 15 of those games.

Big Ben on the road in that same time frame has gone 16-11 with PIT averaging 22 ppg in those games. They scored 30+ in 6 of the games.

But the Steelers are riding a big winning streak. So are the Patriots. Throwing out the Week 17 game between PIT and CLE when the JV was playing, here's what's happened since both teams last lost on 11/10.

NEP (8-0): 29.3/gm PF, 12.9/gm PA, +16.4/gm point differential, +875 net yards, 6 giveaways on offense, 17 turnovers forced on defense (+11 turnover margin)
PIT (8-0): 25.8/gm PF, 15.6/gm PA, +10.2/gm point differential, +925 net yards, 10 giveaways on offense, 14 turnovers forced on defense (+4 turnover margin)

Clearly the Steelers can win this game. Disrupt Brady enough to force a couple turnovers, get Bell to chew up the clock, and get Brown to make a few big plays and they will have a decent shot. Except BB will put a CB on Brown with help over the top, Hightower will key on Bell, they will scheme to stuff the run, and they will make Ben make clutch throws to someone whose last name does not start with a B.

Bottom line, I think NE has a greater chance to score 30 in this one. If the Pats don't turn the ball over (or have an even turnover ratio), I think it will be very hard for PIT to win. IMO, PIT needs a +2 turnover margin and no more than 1 FG to win.

If the stats and history hold, PIT needs to be ahead at halftime to win. Since Gillette Stadium opened in 2002, I believe the Pats have lost ONE (1) game in which they leading at half time in the 138 games they played there. They have won 88 consecutive games when leading at halftime playing in Gillette. Factoring in everything, I would have expected the line to be higher.

 

[rockaction]

I can't believe anybody with eyes and a penchant for football would argue KC after last night.

 

[Anarchy99]

I can't believe anybody with eyes and a penchant for football would argue KC after last night.

Pittsburgh matched up well against the Chiefs. That doesn't mean the Steelers match up well against NE, nor does it mean that KC wouldn't be a tougher match up than PIT against NE. Just look at the games that NE and KC have played vs the games NE and PIT have played.

KC lost a one possession game at NE last year in the playoffs and thumped the Pats 41-14 the year before. Andy Reid also had a couple of 3 point losses going back to his days with the Eagles.

 

[rockaction]

Pittsburgh matched up well against the Chiefs. That doesn't mean the Steelers match up well against NE, nor does it mean that KC wouldn't be a tougher match up than PIT against NE. Just look at the games that NE and KC have played vs the games NE and PIT have played.

KC lost a one possession game at NE last year in the playoffs and thumped the Pats 41-14 the year before. Andy Reid also had a couple of 3 point losses going back to his days with the Eagles.

That's not what I'm arguing. I'm arguing PIT is better than KC.

I have PIT by a touchdown this weekend, regardless. Good luck.

 

[rockaction]

Total points over two games, which is about as good of a sample size as you'll get in the unbalanced NFL: 

Pit - 61

Chiefs - 30

Total yards 

Pit - 845 

KC - 584 

This isn't a matchup problem, it's an ###-kicking problem.  

 

[Anarchy99]

Total points over two games, which is about as good of a sample size as you'll get in the unbalanced NFL: 

Pit - 61

Chiefs - 30

Total yards 

Pit - 845 

KC - 584 

This isn't a matchup problem, it's an ###-kicking problem.  

I wasn't sure what you were referring to when I responded. You were saying who the #2 team in the AFC was. I clearly was answering the question of who the Patriots would rather face and which match up might be more difficult. It looks like you are using numbers from the 2 Chiefs/Steelers games.

I found the last two games played barometer interesting . . . so of the remaining teams, here are their totals for their last two games played. (Which in the grand scheme of the universe means absolutely nothing):

New England
 69 PF, 30 PA, 773 YF, 565 YA, 5-3 turnover ratio
+39 points, +208 yards, +2 turnover margin

Green Bay
72 PF, 44 PA, 820 YF, 794 YA, 3-1 turnover ratio
+28 points, +26 yards, +2 turnover margin

Atlanta
74 PF, 52 PA, 887 YF, 782 YA, 3-0 turnover ratio
+22 points, +105 yards, +3 turnover margin

Pittsburgh
48 PF, 28 PA, 756 YF, 532 YA, 5-3 turnover ratio
+20 points, +224 yards, +2 turnover margin
 

 

[rockaction]

I wasn't sure what you were referring to when I responded. You were saying who the #2 team in the AFC was. I clearly was answering the question of who the Patriots would rather face and which match up might be more difficult. It looks like you are using numbers from the 2 Chiefs/Steelers games.

I found the last two games played barometer interesting . . . so of the remaining teams, here are their totals for their last two games played. (Which in the grand scheme of the universe means absolutely nothing):

New England
 69 PF, 30 PA, 773 YF, 565 YA, 5-3 turnover ratio
+39 points, +208 yards, +2 turnover margin

Green Bay
72 PF, 44 PA, 820 YF, 794 YA, 3-1 turnover ratio
+28 points, +26 yards, +2 turnover margin

Atlanta
74 PF, 52 PA, 887 YF, 782 YA, 3-0 turnover ratio
+22 points, +105 yards, +3 turnover margin

Pittsburgh
48 PF, 28 PA, 756 YF, 532 YA, 5-3 turnover ratio
+20 points, +224 yards, +2 turnover margin
 

I meant KC/Pitt, head-to-head, this year. My contention is that it's not the colloquial "match-up" problem, it's a proverbial ###-whipping.

 

[Anarchy99]

I meant KC/Pitt, head-to-head, this year. 

I know. Figured that one out.

 

[[icon]]

I wasn't sure what you were referring to when I responded. You were saying who the #2 team in the AFC was. I clearly was answering the question of who the Patriots would rather face and which match up might be more difficult. It looks like you are using numbers from the 2 Chiefs/Steelers games.

I found the last two games played barometer interesting . . . so of the remaining teams, here are their totals for their last two games played. (Which in the grand scheme of the universe means absolutely nothing):

New England
 69 PF, 30 PA, 773 YF, 565 YA, 5-3 turnover ratio
+39 points, +208 yards, +2 turnover margin

Green Bay
72 PF, 44 PA, 820 YF, 794 YA, 3-1 turnover ratio
+28 points, +26 yards, +2 turnover margin

Atlanta
74 PF, 52 PA, 887 YF, 782 YA, 3-0 turnover ratio
+22 points, +105 yards, +3 turnover margin

Pittsburgh
48 PF, 28 PA, 756 YF, 532 YA, 5-3 turnover ratio
+20 points, +224 yards, +2 turnover margin

Interesting that by @rockaction's own metric, Pitt is the worst team remaining in the playoffs. 

 

[pats3in4]

If I'm Pittsburgh, I'm finding ways to bring heat on Brady and doubling Edelman until Brady can consistently show he'll torch them by throwing to Lewis, White, Bennett, Hogan, Mitchell, Amendola and Floyd.  Edelman looks to be Brady's favorite target on sight adjustment throws as the two seem to have ESP with each other.  I think the other guys shine more on plays designed for them, which means Edelman isn't the primary target and thus another bonus for the Steelers.  If the Steelers can disguise their coverages well on those designed plays and ruin Brady's primary read after the snap, I think they have a great shot in this game.

If Brady can put up a lot of points on the Steelers without throwing to Edelman much, then the Steelers really just have to tip their cap to Brady's brilliance.

 

[Anarchy99]

Interesting that by @rockaction's own metric, Pitt is the worst team remaining in the playoffs. 

Nah. He was just explaining that PIT stomped on KC twice this year and thus should be ranked as the #2 team in the AFC this year. There is a lot of merit to that.

 

[fred_1_15301]

Nah. He was just explaining that PIT stomped on KC twice this year and thus should be ranked as the #2 team in the AFC this year. There is a lot of merit to that.

Shhh that's not what the rankings say

 

[Bossman]

Bold prediction #1

NE will have more rushing yards than PIT

 

[fred_1_15301]

Bold prediction #1

NE will have more rushing yards than PIT

I could totally see this and wouldn't be all that surprised.  The Patriots are great at coming up with a scheme to take away the other team's biggest strength.  I could see Bell having to be used much more as a receiver.  Also it's far more likely that the Patriots rather than the Steelers  have a big lead early.  This would also favor the Patriots in rushing stats.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Bold prediction #1

NE will have more rushing yards than PIT

The Patriots out-rushed the Steelers over the course of the season, so it's really not all that bold.

ETA: That said, the Steelers' rushing offense has really turned it on down the stretch and in the playoffs. But there is a pretty huge difference between playing against Miami and KC with a lead vs. NE.

 

[Anarchy99]

In two games against NE, Bell put up . . .

21-81-0 with 10-68-0 (L 27-16)
16-74-0 with 4-65-0 (L 55-31)

In four games against NE, Brown put up . . .

7-106-0 (L 27-16)
9-133-1 (L 28-21)
5-71-1 (L 55-31)
9-67-1 (W 25-17)

The Pats seemed to have let them do their thing but not put up crazy, insane numbers.

 

[Bossman]

... another point that has me leaning towards the Patriots this week,

Rob Ninkovich is a better matchup than Justin Houston covering Antonio Brown on deep routes.

 

[Anarchy99]

I forgot to mention the strategy that NE beat writer (who always takes the stance that the sky is falling and pretty much is anti-Patriots at heart). He suggested the Steelers come out physical to the point that they absorb multiple penalties. Level Edelman coming across the middle, even if he is not the intended target. Body slam Brady well after the whistle. Elbow Lewis in the head when he is dancing trying to get free. He said if he were Tomlin, he would have no problem racking up 75 yards in penalties on dirty hits in the first quarter, as every single one of those guys would get off their game and think twice about going across the middle or holding the ball a full 2 seconds (in Brady's case).

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I forgot to mention the strategy that NE beat writer (who always takes the stance that the sky is falling and pretty much is anti-Patriots at heart). He suggested the Steelers come out physical to the point that they absorb multiple penalties. Level Edelman coming across the middle, even if he is not the intended target. Body slam Brady well after the whistle. Elbow Lewis in the head when he is dancing trying to get free. He said if he were Tomlin, he would have no problem racking up 75 yards in penalties on dirty hits in the first quarter, as every single one of those guys would get off their game and think twice about going across the middle or holding the ball a full 2 seconds (in Brady's case).

So basically give them a couple of TDs early and play one dimensionally from behind? No thanks...

 

[Evilgrin 72]

... another point that has me leaning towards the Patriots this week,

Rob Ninkovich is a better matchup than Justin Houston covering Antonio Brown on deep routes.

If you're making a habit of covering AB with linebackers, that's going to spell doom, 100% of the time; I don't care if it's Lawrence Taylor in his prime or anyone else you want to put on him.  That was an anomaly and Belichick is WAY too smart to allow that.  Hence, I don't believe this matchup will even exist, let alone have a positive impact on the game for NE relative to what KC did.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I forgot to mention the strategy that NE beat writer (who always takes the stance that the sky is falling and pretty much is anti-Patriots at heart). He suggested the Steelers come out physical to the point that they absorb multiple penalties. Level Edelman coming across the middle, even if he is not the intended target. Body slam Brady well after the whistle. Elbow Lewis in the head when he is dancing trying to get free. He said if he were Tomlin, he would have no problem racking up 75 yards in penalties on dirty hits in the first quarter, as every single one of those guys would get off their game and think twice about going across the middle or holding the ball a full 2 seconds (in Brady's case).

Lunacy.  The Steelers, IMO, would never coach or even advocate that strategy.  Be physical and let them know you're in the building - absolutely.  But taking unnecessary penalties to deliver a message is not their style.

 

[Anarchy99]

If you're making a habit of covering AB with linebackers, that's going to spell doom, 100% of the time; I don't care if it's Lawrence Taylor in his prime or anyone else you want to put on him.  That was an anomaly and Belichick is WAY too smart to allow that.  Hence, I don't believe this matchup will even exist, let alone have a positive impact on the game for NE relative to what KC did.

From what I remember in their prior meetings, the Pats were ok with Ben targeting AB underneath or along the sideline. But not deep and over the top. One of his TD's came in garbage time last year (2 seconds left in the game) that turned a two possession game for the final 50 minutes into a 7 point game.

It will be interesting to see what the Steelers do, because they clearly are the ones that have to shake things up if they want a different outcome.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

It will be interesting to see what the Steelers do, because they clearly are the ones that have to shake things up if they want a different outcome.

I'm cautiously optimistic that having Bell playing the way that he has recently will be enough to make this game more competitive than most of the Pit / NE games have been recently.

 

[Bossman]

... another point that has me leaning towards the Patriots this week,

Rob Ninkovich is a better matchup than Justin Houston covering Antonio Brown on deep routes.

If you're making a habit of covering AB with linebackers, that's going to spell doom, 100% of the time; I don't care if it's Lawrence Taylor in his prime or anyone else you want to put on him.  That was an anomaly and Belichick is WAY too smart to allow that.  Hence, I don't believe this matchup will even exist, let alone have a positive impact on the game for NE relative to what KC did.

KC just showed the blue-print of how to defend AB.

Gotta beat him with SIZE not speed. I expect Ninkovich to match up one-on-one and take AB out of the game.

Might need to give him a 6 or 8 yard cushion.

 

[[icon]]

KC just showed the blue-print of how to defend AB.

Gotta beat him with SIZE not speed. I expect Ninkovich to match up one-on-one and take AB out of the game.

Might need to give him a 6 or 8 yard cushion.

I was rather shocked to find these combine numbers for Ninkovich and Brown:

20yd shuttle:
Brown: 4.18sec
Nink: 4.18sec

60yd shuttle:
Brown: 11.3sec
Nink: 11.33

This clearly doesn't reflect the significant gap in overall straight line speed, Ninkovich should NOT be left to cover brown without help over the top.... but I was shocked to see the measurables this close considering Nink is 4" taller and about 70lbs heavier. 

 

[Evilgrin 72]

From what I remember in their prior meetings, the Pats were ok with Ben targeting AB underneath or along the sideline. But not deep and over the top. One of his TD's came in garbage time last year (2 seconds left in the game) that turned a two possession game for the final 50 minutes into a 7 point game.

It will be interesting to see what the Steelers do, because they clearly are the ones that have to shake things up if they want a different outcome.

On a quick out or underneath route, sure.  I was talking about having an LB matched up in man coverage deep with no secondary help like the bomb last night.  I can only assume that was some kind of blown coverage, I can't see BB matching Ninkovich up on AB down the field with any sort of regularity (read : at all.)

 

[Evilgrin 72]

KC just showed the blue-print of how to defend AB.

Gotta beat him with SIZE not speed. I expect Ninkovich to match up one-on-one and take AB out of the game.

Might need to give him a 6 or 8 yard cushion.

This would be borderline insane if they're not rolling safety help over on every play.  If they want to try to cover Brown one-on-one down the field with Ninkovich all game, I more than welcome that scenario.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I was rather shocked to find these combine numbers for Ninkovich and Brown:

20yd shuttle:
Brown: 4.18sec
Nink: 4.18sec

60yd shuttle:
Brown: 11.3sec
Nink: 11.33

There are probably 50 corners in the NFL with equal or better combine numbers to Brown's.  Not many have had a lot of success covering him one-on-one. 

 

[[icon]]

There are probably 50 corners in the NFL with equal or better combine numbers to Brown's.  Not many have had a lot of success covering him one-on-one. 

Certainly did not mean to imply anything other than surprise with regards to the closeness of the numbers for two guys with such a large size disparity. 

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Certainly did not mean to imply anything other than surprise with regards to the closeness of the numbers for two guys with such a large size disparity. 

Understood.

I have way too much respect for Belichick to believe he's going to put Ninkovich on an island against Brown down the field the way Houston was on that 52-yard play last night.  Picking him up on an underneath crossing route, sure.  But if he's covering Brown on a 9-route down the sideline without help at any point during this game, I'll be both stupified and delighted.  The ball was underthrown on that play yesterday - one yard more oomph in it and that's a guaranteed TD.

 

[Anarchy99]

On a quick out or underneath route, sure.  I was talking about having an LB matched up in man coverage deep with no secondary help like the bomb last night.  I can only assume that was some kind of blown coverage, I can't see BB matching Ninkovich up on AB down the field with any sort of regularity (read : at all.)

The Pats won't have a LB on Brown in single coverage. They will dedicate a CB to follow him and have safety help over the top. What they also will do, which has driven opposing teams nuts, is drop D linemen into coverage and take away seams / lanes. Most QBs do not expect a guy that almost always rushes to retreat into coverage, which has led to turnovers, forced punts, etc.

That's where I think the Pats defense is really underrated. I get that they haven't played a Murderer's Row of QB's, but more so than ever they have been exceedingly deceptive. I think part of why they moved Jones and Collins is that both of them wanted to make the big play but didn't want to be a puzzle piece on a play to make a team defensive stop. Crazy as it sounds, the Pats have been better able to camouflage their defensive plays better without those guys. I know it sounds really odd to jettison two of your best defensive play makers, but the guys they have out their now and the rotations they have been using have been playing really well together. 

Four turnovers by the offense and special teams in games against BAL and HOU gave the ball away deep in the red zone and literally gave away 14 points and 10 points in those games. Other than those miscues, the Pats defense has only allowed 6 ppg over their last 5 games.

Can they continue on that path and keep it up? We shall see . . .

 

[Evilgrin 72]

The Pats won't have a LB on Brown in single coverage. They will dedicate a CB to follow him and have safety help over the top. What they also will do, which has driven opposing teams nuts, is drop D linemen into coverage and take away seams / lanes. Most QBs do not expect a guy that almost always rushes to retreat into coverage, which has led to turnovers, forced punts, etc.

That's where I think the Pats defense is really underrated. I get that they haven't played a Murderer's Row of QB's, but more so than ever they have been exceedingly deceptive. I think part of why they moved Jones and Collins is that both of them wanted to make the big play but didn't want to be a puzzle piece on a play to make a team defensive stop. Crazy as it sounds, the Pats have been better able to camouflage their defensive plays better without those guys. I know it sounds really odd to jettison two of your best defensive play makers, but the guys they have out their now and the rotations they have been using have been playing really well together. 

Four turnovers by the offense and special teams in games against BAL and HOU gave the ball away deep in the red zone and literally gave away 14 points and 10 points in those games. Other than those miscues, the Pats defense has only allowed 6 ppg over their last 5 games.

Can they continue on that path and keep it up? We shall see . . .

Quite possible.  It helps that Roethlisberger can be baited into making bad throws.  He will always be the maverick who forces the ball in an attempt to make something from nothing.  He's rightfully lauded for the times it works out, but there are plenty of times that it doesn't.  If the Pats can create those scenarios and Roethlisberger falls into the trap, it will be death for the Steelers.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Quite possible.  It helps that Roethlisberger can be baited into making bad throws.  He will always be the maverick who forces the ball in an attempt to make something from nothing.  He's rightfully lauded for the times it works out, but there are plenty of times that it doesn't.  If the Pats can create those scenarios and Roethlisberger falls into the trap, it will be death for the Steelers.

Agreed. More than anything else this week, Ben really needs to be very close to perfect.

 

[Godsbrother]

Agreed. More than anything else this week, Ben really needs to be very close to perfect.

Yep.  Ben needs to play a clean game.  He didn't play poorly against KC but it wasn't his greatest showing either although he did have two sure TDs dropped last night.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Agreed. More than anything else this week, Ben really needs to be very close to perfect.

Everyone does.  I honestly believe that the Steelers "A" game has a very strong chance of beating the Patriots' "A" game.  The problem is that the Pats have theirs a lot more frequently than the Steelers do, especially at home.  Especially in the playoffs.  Steelers at less than their best are not going to beat New England very often, even if the Patriots are a little off too.  Steelers may possibly have the higher ceiling but definitely have a much lower floor (see : Philly game, 1st game with Miami, first game with Baltimore.)  The Patriots just don't lay an egg nearly as often.  Just one guy's opinion.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Yep.  Ben needs to play a clean game.  He didn't play poorly against KC but it wasn't his greatest showing either although he did have two sure TDs dropped last night.

Agreed about his performance last night, but he'll need to be significantly better to win in Foxboro IMO. I really doubt that Bell rips through the NE defense for 170 yards...

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Everyone does.  I honestly believe that the Steelers "A" game has a very strong chance of beating the Patriots' "A" game.  The problem is that the Pats have theirs a lot more frequently than the Steelers do, especially at home.  Especially in the playoffs.  Steelers at less than their best are not going to beat New England very often, even if the Patriots are a little off too.  Steelers may possibly have the higher ceiling but definitely have a much lower floor (see : Philly game, 1st game with Miami, first game with Baltimore.)  The Patriots just don't lay an egg nearly as often.  Just one guy's opinion.

Don't disagree with this at all, particularly re: the offense. If we get four solid quarters of "A" out of the offense as a whole, I don't think that any team in the league can really hang with them. That said, as you mentioned, we haven't seen that too often, really. It's showed up here and there, but not consistently. I really hope that Green can come back this week -- another credible vertical threat really seems to help (eff you Martavis). I'll also add that four quarters of "A" offense against a Belichick defense is a pretty huge ask.

 

[Godsbrother]

Don't disagree with this at all, particularly re: the offense. If we get four solid quarters of "A" out of the offense as a whole, I don't think that any team in the league can really hang with them. That said, as you mentioned, we haven't seen that too often, really. It's showed up here and there, but not consistently. I really hope that Green can come back this week -- another credible vertical threat really seems to help (eff you Martavis). I'll also add that four quarters of "A" offense against a Belichick defense is a pretty huge ask.

To tell you the truth I'm not so sure getting Green back is much of a big deal anymore.   He hasn't fully practiced in a while and this is a short week.   I don't think he'll be cleared this week and not sure how much of weapon he will be even if he is.

 

[hardcoredx]

As a NE fan, I'm not buying the -6 line. Is this some joke? I'll take Pitt all day with those points, they've had a top 5 defense for the 2nd half of the season. 

 

[fred_1_15301]

To tell you the truth I'm not so sure getting Green back is much of a big deal anymore.   He hasn't fully practiced in a while and this is a short week.   I don't think he'll be cleared this week and not sure how much of weapon he will be even if he is.

Agreed.  James is nothing special but he's more than adequate as a complementary piece.  I also don't expect Green to play.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

To tell you the truth I'm not so sure getting Green back is much of a big deal anymore.   He hasn't fully practiced in a while and this is a short week.   I don't think he'll be cleared this week and not sure how much of weapon he will be even if he is.

Yeah, that's probably true. Was thinking in terms of giving the Pats' safeties something to think about down the hash marks outside of AB -- James has done an decent job for sure, but he's just not the athlete that we need to stretch the field given the situation at WR. Coby and Rogers aren't taking the top off the defense any time soon, and Coates and DHB can't catch a cold...

 

[[icon]]

Four turnovers by the offense and special teams in games against BAL and HOU gave the ball away deep in the red zone and literally gave away 14 points and 10 points in those games. Other than those miscues, the Pats defense has only allowed 6 ppg over their last 5 games.

 That's crazy... I didn't realize that stat was the case 

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Agreed about his performance last night, but he'll need to be significantly better to win in Foxboro IMO. I really doubt that Bell rips through the NE defense for 170 yards...

If he does, it will be because the Steelers are making them pay through the air.  I fully expect the Patriots to try to take Bell away early and not let the Steelers control the clock.  Ben is going to need to make them pay through the air early on to open things up for Le'Veon.  I think NE will clog the middle and try to take away the interior rushing lanes, which will provide opportunities to make plays outside the numbers as long as Ben doesn't force anything.  Turnovers on the sidelines can be deadly, as we all know.

 

[fred_1_15301]

 That's crazy... I didn't realize that stat was the case 

@Anarchy99What about week 17 against Miami when they allowed 2 TDs? I can't recall if the Patriots had mostly backups in but I thought they were still fighting for homefield.

 

[Anarchy99]

Everyone does.  I honestly believe that the Steelers "A" game has a very strong chance of beating the Patriots' "A" game.  The problem is that the Pats have theirs a lot more frequently than the Steelers do, especially at home.  Especially in the playoffs.  Steelers at less than their best are not going to beat New England very often, even if the Patriots are a little off too.  Steelers may possibly have the higher ceiling but definitely have a much lower floor (see : Philly game, 1st game with Miami, first game with Baltimore.)  The Patriots just don't lay an egg nearly as often.  Just one guy's opinion.

Here's the thing, if you give the Steelers their "A" game on offense, then you are not getting the Patriots "A" game. The Pats "A" game right now is allowing 10-14 points and scoring 30-35. I'm not ever really sure that is the Pats "A" game, as they were pretty close to that line against Houston and most of the game were way out of sync.

The flip side to what you mentioned in terms of the Steelers offense firing on all cylinders is that at that point the Pats would go full thrust on offense, no huddle, 5 wide and shock and awe.

IMO, if PIT plays their normal game they aren't winning. It's that straight forward. They need to be better than normal in all three phases of the game to force NE to be significantly worse than average.

Put another way, if NE's average output at home is 34 points for and 14 points against, the Steelers are going to really have to move the needle if their average output on the road is 21 ppg on offense and 10 points allowed.And that's not factoring the history against the Pats or playing in Foxboro.

 

[Anarchy99]

@Anarchy99What about week 17 against Miami when they allowed 2 TDs? I can't recall if the Patriots had mostly backups in but I thought they were still fighting for homefield.

BAL = 23 - 14 giveaway points = 9
DEN = 3
NYJ = 3
MIA = 14
HOU = 16 - 10 giveaway points = 6

Must have calculated wrong. It should be 7 points per game not 6 ppg.

 

[fred_1_15301]

Here's the thing, if you give the Steelers their "A" game on offense, then you are not getting the Patriots "A" game. The Pats "A" game right now is allowing 10-14 points and scoring 30-35. I'm not ever really sure that is the Pats "A" game, as they were pretty close to that line against Houston and most of the game were way out of sync.

The flip side to what you mentioned in terms of the Steelers offense firing on all cylinders is that at that point the Pats would go full thrust on offense, no huddle, 5 wide and shock and awe.

IMO, if PIT plays their normal game they aren't winning. It's that straight forward. They need to be better than normal in all three phases of the game to force NE to be significantly worse than average.

Put another way, if NE's average output at home is 34 points for and 14 points against, the Steelers are going to really have to move the needle if their average output on the road is 21 ppg on offense and 10 points allowed.And that's not factoring the history against the Pats or playing in Foxboro.

Sure.  The Patriots have also not faced an offense with this much talent.  If Ben plays a great game (which I concede is probably unlikely), the Pats cannot stop them.  And why do you keep bringing up history?  You know that outcomes from previous seasons do not have much relevance in predicting the outcome of next week's game.  Have the Patriots ever had to face the big 3 of the Steelers?  I don't recall but I don't believe they have.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Here's the thing, if you give the Steelers their "A" game on offense, then you are not getting the Patriots "A" game. The Pats "A" game right now is allowing 10-14 points and scoring 30-35. I'm not ever really sure that is the Pats "A" game, as they were pretty close to that line against Houston and most of the game were way out of sync.

The flip side to what you mentioned in terms of the Steelers offense firing on all cylinders is that at that point the Pats would go full thrust on offense, no huddle, 5 wide and shock and awe.

IMO, if PIT plays their normal game they aren't winning. It's that straight forward. They need to be better than normal in all three phases of the game to force NE to be significantly worse than average.

Put another way, if NE's average output at home is 34 points for and 14 points against, the Steelers are going to really have to move the needle if their average output on the road is 21 ppg on offense and 10 points allowed.And that's not factoring the history against the Pats or playing in Foxboro.

I'm referring strictly to having a solid game plan and executing flawlessly.  NE's average output at home is 34 for and 14 against, but that's not going to be their average output if they played Pittsburgh 17 times, so I don't think that's the right baseline for determining if the needle has moved.  If the Steelers play as well as they're capable of playing, I think they will win this game.  I think they're capable of making more game-changing plays on both sides of the ball than are the Pats.  The Pats, however, are FAR more consistent and play closer to what I would consider a "perfect game" much more frequently than Pittsburgh does, which is why I think the Patriots win this game 7-8 times out of 10. 

 

[Godsbrother]

I don't think bringing up the stats is particularly useful in this discussion.   There is no debate that the Patriots are the clear favorites with home field and a short week for the Steelers.   The Patriots are expected to win and win convincingly.  

If they lose it will be a classic choking and the Patriots rarely if ever choke.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

If they lose it will be a classic choking and the Patriots rarely if ever choke.

Eli down?