After Bradford, Which Rookie QB do You Like? (1 Viewer)

[Rovers]

Bradford is obviously (I think) the number one QB prospect, but after that, who do you like and why?

I think the next three are in the second tier, but unwrap the crystal ball and project which one you like.

Claussen: Behind Moore, who looked good late last year, but his detractors think he is more of a college production product than an NFL QB. Some concerns over his maturiy and general personality as well. But still, he was very successful at ND in a lot of ways.

Tebow: Outstanding college career, and he has his detractors as well, but Denver clearly sees him as a future NFL QB. High character almost to the point of being sickening, work ethic, attitude, maturity, it's all there. Can his college success translate?

McCoy: While Holmgren has said he he won't play in 2010, if Delhomme and Wallace are epic fails... that could change. He won more games in college than you can shake a stick at. He wins games, like Tebow (and unlike Clausen).

So, if you are drafting too late to be in the Bradford sweepstakes, which of these three (or any others) would you target as your second choice in a dynasty league? Will any of them be starters in 2011 (if we have a season that is)? Which one do you like over the next 5-6 years?

 

[az_prof]

I don't want any of these guys to be honest, although I did end up with Tebow at 3.12 in rookie draft because there was no one else worth taking.

That being said, I would rank Tebow above Clausen and McCoy. Why? Simply because of his draft status. The reality is that even first round picks have less than a 50% chance of making it, but that chance for QBs goes down significantly from round to round. Outside of Romo and Brady, how many of the top starting QBs were NOT first round picks? That doesn't mean that Clausen or McCoy won't be exceptions like Romo and Brady, but the odds are really stacked. So, if I am going to roll the dice, and that's what you are doing with any of these three, I figure that Tebow has a better chance.

I am not trying to account for "character," intelligence, throwing mechanics, leadership, or college production. This is based simply on the fact that first round picks have a higher success rate.

 

[nlgb1]

Clausen.

He goes into the perfect situation for a rookie QB: no immediate need for him to perform, offensive line that will protect him once he gets playing time, great run game to take the pressure off of him in the early going, Steve smith and possibly Lafell if that pans out.

Honestly, i think clausen is THE qb to have in dynasty formats, over bradford, due to the convenience of his situation. He is clearly talented enough to prosper in Carolina, and i think the players around him will allow him to take it to the next level that many drafted QBs dont reach.

PS. id rather have bobby hoying on my current dynasty roster over tim tebow.

 

[healthpellets]

i'll take Clausen over Bradford. Thanks.

 

[kurtrudder]

I'm passing on them all and throwing late round picks at Jonathan Crompton, Dan LeFevour & Ryan Perrilloux. To me all of those three have much higher upside than any other QB's for the price. Your most likely going to need to use 4th and 5th round picks on the guys I have mentioned but need to use 2nd rounders to grab Clausen......maybe a 3rd to get McCoy and depending on who is in your league...anywhere between a late 1st to 3rd rounder on Tebow.

I'm taking this route mainly because I don't rate the guys you have mentioned after Bradford, I just don't see their college success translating to the pros and as I mentioned above, the price is right.

 

[kurtrudder]

Clausen.He goes into the perfect situation for a rookie QB: no immediate need for him to perform, offensive line that will protect him once he gets playing time, great run game to take the pressure off of him in the early going, Steve smith and possibly Lafell if that pans out. Honestly, i think clausen is THE qb to have in dynasty formats, over bradford, due to the convenience of his situation. He is clearly talented enough to prosper in Carolina, and i think the players around him will allow him to take it to the next level that many drafted QBs dont reach.PS. id rather have bobby hoying on my current dynasty roster over tim tebow.

I just can't see that at all!! I think this job is Matt Moore's to keep for a long time unless Clausen plays lights out (plus I don't think Clausen is good enough to beat out Matt Moore to be honest).....plus knowing the John Fox's M.O, he will stick with the veteran guy for much longer than everyone seems to anticipate.

 

[happy_donut]

Outside of Romo and Brady, how many of the top starting QBs were NOT first round picks?

In no particular order:Schaub (3rd)Brees (2nd)Farve (2nd)And of course:Brady (6th)Romo (UFA)It's hard to pick them as rookies, but they are out there. Of course Farve might retire.Back to the topic, I'd take Clausen if he fell to the second, the rest I'm not too excited about but as the draft unfolds I look for players to fall. I do like LeFevour but I don't own Cutler so I doubt I'll get him.

 

[D'OHtis]

Probably Claussen. Not crazy about any outside Bradford.

 

[Rovers]

I really like Lefevour too, but behind Cutler...

I think Clausen has his work cut out for him. I'm not sure how well he will fit into an NFL locker room, and I think Fox likes Moore. Clausen is more fire extignusher than anything else is my gut feel. He'll sit unless Moore fails.

I don't know what to make of Tebow, or Denver for that matter. McDaniels is a guy I just can't figure out. Orton, Quinn, Tebow. Reminds me of trying to pick a Denver RB under Shanny. I have no idea.

McCoy I think may have the best situation. Delhomme and Wallace? But CLE waited a long time to take him. That is a contradition. They passed on him in the third round, right? That right there is cause for concern.

The bottom line might be that none of them ever become successful starters. Odds and gut feel says one of them will though. It's early in this thread, but already opinions are all over the place, which is about how I feel about these QB's.... I have trouble picking any one of them.

 

[az_prof]

Outside of Romo and Brady, how many of the top starting QBs were NOT first round picks?

In no particular order:Schaub (3rd)Brees (2nd)Farve (2nd)And of course:Brady (6th)Romo (UFA)It's hard to pick them as rookies, but they are out there. Of course Farve might retire.Back to the topic, I'd take Clausen if he fell to the second, the rest I'm not too excited about but as the draft unfolds I look for players to fall. I do like LeFevour but I don't own Cutler so I doubt I'll get him.

RodgersPeyton ManningRoethlisbergerRiversEli ManningCutlerFlaccoPalmerMatt RyanAgain, I haven't done the mathematical study but I have seen it on here. The odds are much better with the first round pick so I am going with him if I HAVE to pick one. However, it's a crap shoot and so if you can get one of the other much later they may be a better value. I think the answer is: whichever one you can get latest. The idea that Clausen or McCoy are in better situations seems a stretch to me and in any case you don't draft a dynasty QB based on situation.

 

[EBF]

I really don't like any of them, to be honest. I think this is a weak crew.

 

[twr]

I really don't like any of them, to be honest. I think this is a weak crew.

sing it brotha

 

[Rovers]

Outside of Romo and Brady, how many of the top starting QBs were NOT first round picks?

In no particular order:Schaub (3rd)Brees (2nd)Farve (2nd)And of course:Brady (6th)Romo (UFA)It's hard to pick them as rookies, but they are out there. Of course Farve might retire.Back to the topic, I'd take Clausen if he fell to the second, the rest I'm not too excited about but as the draft unfolds I look for players to fall. I do like LeFevour but I don't own Cutler so I doubt I'll get him.

RodgersPeyton ManningRoethlisbergerRiversEli ManningCutlerFlaccoPalmerMatt RyanAgain, I haven't done the mathematical study but I have seen it on here. The odds are much better with the first round pick so I am going with him if I HAVE to pick one. However, it's a crap shoot and so if you can get one of the other much later they may be a better value. I think the answer is: whichever one you can get latest. The idea that Clausen or McCoy are in better situations seems a stretch to me and in any case you don't draft a dynasty QB based on situation.

I have to disagree.... I liked LeFevour, but behind Cutler? That is a BAD situation. If he went to Buffalo, I'd jump for him. I think situation matters, but it isn't a trump card either. How well they practice on an NFL practice field and learn and perform is the trump card, but we don't have that yet. We have college QB's who get projected and then land in situations. Bradford has the ideal situation... he walks on the field from day one as a starter. Had he been drafted by another team... would that still be the case?

 

[lyon812]

Clausen, easily. He was unanimously rated a first-round talent by NFL scouts. Many rated him a top-10 talent. His fall to the second round had everything to do with the defense-heavy draft and concerns about his toe. I'm not as down on Tebow as some people, but I don't see why anyone would on one hand salute the scouts (Tebow was drafted in the first) then on the other hand dismiss them (Clausen had a first round grade and a consistently higher grade). McCoy I'm not really sold on, though I think he could be an effective, acceptable quarterback in the right system.

 

[EBF]

Clausen, easily. He was unanimously rated a first-round talent by NFL scouts. Many rated him a top-10 talent.

I find it highly unlikely that he would've fallen to pick #48 if this were true. That's not even an early 2nd round pick. He was ranked as the 16th best 2nd round prospect on the leaked Cowboys draft board, so there's at least one team that didn't give him a first round grade. I understand that you're pretty high on him, but I think your personal affinity for Clausen is clouding your perception of reality here.

Honestly, there's really no way that he would've fallen nearly that far if he had been a "unanimous" first round talent.

Several teams with QB needs passed on him multiple times.

 

[happy_donut]

Outside of Romo and Brady, how many of the top starting QBs were NOT first round picks?

In no particular order:Schaub (3rd)Brees (2nd)Farve (2nd)And of course:Brady (6th)Romo (UFA)It's hard to pick them as rookies, but they are out there. Of course Farve might retire.Back to the topic, I'd take Clausen if he fell to the second, the rest I'm not too excited about but as the draft unfolds I look for players to fall. I do like LeFevour but I don't own Cutler so I doubt I'll get him.

RodgersPeyton ManningRoethlisbergerRiversEli ManningCutlerFlaccoPalmerMatt RyanAgain, I haven't done the mathematical study but I have seen it on here. The odds are much better with the first round pick so I am going with him if I HAVE to pick one. However, it's a crap shoot and so if you can get one of the other much later they may be a better value. I think the answer is: whichever one you can get latest. The idea that Clausen or McCoy are in better situations seems a stretch to me and in any case you don't draft a dynasty QB based on situation.

I'm not sure I get what you mean by the list. Is this a refutation that there are top QB's that weren't drafted in the first round? They are out there, and there are more of them than your original post would indicate.My whole point is that I'd take one who drops. Clausen to me is good value in the second round of rookie drafts. Probably mid to late. The rest I'm not looking at before round 4 (my league has 5 rounds in the rookie draft, 14 teams).Also, I'm not sure where I said that Clausen or McCoy are in better situations, than whoever you are thinking of that you don't mention.

 

[SSOG]

I don't want any of these guys to be honest, although I did end up with Tebow at 3.12 in rookie draft because there was no one else worth taking.

That being said, I would rank Tebow above Clausen and McCoy. Why? Simply because of his draft status. The reality is that even first round picks have less than a 50% chance of making it, but that chance for QBs goes down significantly from round to round. Outside of Romo and Brady, how many of the top starting QBs were NOT first round picks? That doesn't mean that Clausen or McCoy won't be exceptions like Romo and Brady, but the odds are really stacked. So, if I am going to roll the dice, and that's what you are doing with any of these three, I figure that Tebow has a better chance.

I am not trying to account for "character," intelligence, throwing mechanics, leadership, or college production. This is based simply on the fact that first round picks have a higher success rate.

Tebow, for this reason (higher drafted QBs tend to do better than lower drafted QBs), in addition to the "rushing yardage is worth twice as much as passing yardage" reason. Guys like Vince Young and Michael Vick have fantasy values that far exceed their talent as a passer just because of the weight their rushing production is given. Dante Culpepper was a better fantasy QB than Peyton Manning simply because of the rushing advantage. Tebow's a good swing-for-the-fences pick because if he ever manages to become a 3200 yard passer and a 500 yard rusher, he'll score as much as a guy that's a 4200 yard passer (20pts per passing yards), or even a 4450 yard passer (25pts per passing yard).

In no particular order:

Schaub (3rd)

Brees (2nd)

Farve (2nd)

And of course:

Brady (6th)

Romo (UFA)

It's hard to pick them as rookies, but they are out there. Of course Farve might retire.

Back to the topic, I'd take Clausen if he fell to the second, the rest I'm not too excited about but as the draft unfolds I look for players to fall. I do like LeFevour but I don't own Cutler so I doubt I'll get him.

For what it's worth, Brees was drafted 32nd overall, and Favre was drafted 33rd overall. While they weren't technically first rounders, they were really as close as you could have gotten (and, in today's league, Brees would have even been a first rounder). I don't think azprof was suggesting that there was some magical mystical power that would turn the 32nd player taken into a stud and the 33rd player taken into a bust just because the first guy got the "first rounder" label while the second guy was doomed to "second rounder" status.

Clausen, easily. He was unanimously rated a first-round talent by NFL scouts.

Actually, he was unanimously rated NOT a first-round talent by NFL GMs, none of whom selected him in the first round. Then, all front office decision makers had an entire evening to reflect on the draft, re-stack their boards, and then trade up to grab Clausen if they really liked him... and they again unanimously declined to.The reality is that Clausen was unanimously rated a first-round talent by overweight guys running "insider draft sites" out of their basements and neatly coiffed studio personalities. Don't mistake that for Clausen being unanimously rated a first-round talent by actual paid professionals who make an actual living and whose careers tangibly hinge on their ability to gauge a player's pro prospects.

 

[bweiser]

I don't want any of these guys to be honest, although I did end up with Tebow at 3.12 in rookie draft because there was no one else worth taking.

That being said, I would rank Tebow above Clausen and McCoy. Why? Simply because of his draft status. The reality is that even first round picks have less than a 50% chance of making it, but that chance for QBs goes down significantly from round to round. Outside of Romo and Brady, how many of the top starting QBs were NOT first round picks? That doesn't mean that Clausen or McCoy won't be exceptions like Romo and Brady, but the odds are really stacked. So, if I am going to roll the dice, and that's what you are doing with any of these three, I figure that Tebow has a better chance.

I am not trying to account for "character," intelligence, throwing mechanics, leadership, or college production. This is based simply on the fact that first round picks have a higher success rate.

Tebow, for this reason (higher drafted QBs tend to do better than lower drafted QBs), in addition to the "rushing yardage is worth twice as much as passing yardage" reason. Guys like Vince Young and Michael Vick have fantasy values that far exceed their talent as a passer just because of the weight their rushing production is given. Dante Culpepper was a better fantasy QB than Peyton Manning simply because of the rushing advantage. Tebow's a good swing-for-the-fences pick because if he ever manages to become a 3200 yard passer and a 500 yard rusher, he'll score as much as a guy that's a 4200 yard passer (20pts per passing yards), or even a 4450 yard passer (25pts per passing yard).

In no particular order:

Schaub (3rd)

Brees (2nd)

Farve (2nd)

And of course:

Brady (6th)

Romo (UFA)

It's hard to pick them as rookies, but they are out there. Of course Farve might retire.

Back to the topic, I'd take Clausen if he fell to the second, the rest I'm not too excited about but as the draft unfolds I look for players to fall. I do like LeFevour but I don't own Cutler so I doubt I'll get him.

For what it's worth, Brees was drafted 32nd overall, and Favre was drafted 33rd overall. While they weren't technically first rounders, they were really as close as you could have gotten (and, in today's league, Brees would have even been a first rounder). I don't think azprof was suggesting that there was some magical mystical power that would turn the 32nd player taken into a stud and the 33rd player taken into a bust just because the first guy got the "first rounder" label while the second guy was doomed to "second rounder" status.

Clausen, easily. He was unanimously rated a first-round talent by NFL scouts.

Actually, he was unanimously rated NOT a first-round talent by NFL GMs, none of whom selected him in the first round. Then, all front office decision makers had an entire evening to reflect on the draft, re-stack their boards, and then trade up to grab Clausen if they really liked him... and they again unanimously declined to.The reality is that Clausen was unanimously rated a first-round talent by overweight guys running "insider draft sites" out of their basements and neatly coiffed studio personalities. Don't mistake that for Clausen being unanimously rated a first-round talent by actual paid professionals who make an actual living and whose careers tangibly hinge on their ability to gauge a player's pro prospects.

Couldn't disagree more with SSOG here. You think, even if the Cowboys had him ranked as a first-round QB they'd take him? The Colts? The Saints? I think a lot of teams may have thought he was a first-round QB, but didn't have a NEED for a QB and had a greater need for another player at another position.

 

[SSOG]

Couldn't disagree more with SSOG here. You think, even if the Cowboys had him ranked as a first-round QB they'd take him? The Colts? The Saints? I think a lot of teams may have thought he was a first-round QB, but didn't have a NEED for a QB and had a greater need for another player at another position.

The Cowboys didn't have him ranked as a first-round QB, though. Their draft board leaked, and he wasn't a first rounder.Besides, as I said, every team looking for a QB (and there were plenty of them) had numerous opportunities to either draft Clausen, or to trade up to grab him. Ten draft picks were traded before Clausen was selected. Do you really think that if a team had a need for a QB, and Clausen was still sitting out there, and the team had assigned him a top-10 draft grade (like all the overweight "draft analysts" running websites out of their basements, or all the neatly-coiffed studio personalities), that a team wouldn't trade to get him? I mean, if he was really perceived as a top ten pick, then any team with a QB need would have GLADLY traded a 2011 first to the Patriots for the #47 draft pick (that they wound up shipping to Arizona, instead).If there was anyone- any single GM in the entire NFL- who had even the most fleeting QB need and who had Clausen in the top 10 on his board, then Clausen would not have lasted to #48. Period, full stop. I mean, look at actual top-10 talents. If Russel Okung was still sitting on the board at #47, teams would be killing each other to trade for the Patriots pick. If Rolando McClain was still around, same thing. Maybe you want to say that QB is different because you only have one on the field at a time... but you only have one RB on the field at a time, and that didn't stop the Bills from drafting Spiller when they already had two good RBs. Even the Colts wouldn't be immune- after all, the Broncos drafted Maddox in the first round when Elway was two years younger than Peyton Manning is right now. The Packers drafted Rodgers in the first when Favre was two years older than Manning is now. When Walsh acquired Steve Young, Joe Montana was the same age that Drew Brees is today. Smart decision makers have been acquiring 1st round QBs despite already having stud QBs on their roster for decades now. If the Colts really thought that Clausen was as good as the Kipers and McShays of the world seemed to think, then they would have grabbed him and started grooming him as Manning's successor.If you want to call Clausen a "first round talent", that's your prerogative. Individual teams do that all the time when discussing their drafts- "oh, look, we got a first round talent in the third round!". If someone wants to say that NFL scouts were UNANIMOUS on the fact that Clausen was a first round talent... well, that's just asinine, as actual results demonstrated beyond any conceivable doubt that actual NFL decision makers were pretty much unanimous that he WASN'T. Hell, why not start calling Ciron Black a "first round talent", too? I mean, last offseason Mel Kiper said he would have been a first rounder if he declared early. Let's not let the fact that he went undrafted get in the way of a good story, here.Edit: It's like my wife and clothes shopping. Some times she'll come home all excited because she "got an $80 dress for just $20". In reality, she got a $20 dress. If it were really an $80 dress, then someone would have paid $80 for it. It's not like clothing stores are altruistic and like surviving on the thinnest possible margins- they're out to make the biggest buck they can. If all they can get for a dress is $20, then it's a $20 dress, no matter how hard they try to spin it otherwise. Hell, I could start charging $.50 for fantasy advice and advertise it as "a $100 value for the low price of $.50", but everyone on the planet would know that it was really only worth $.50 (actually, most people would realize it wasn't even worth that).Anyway, Jimmy Clausen is that "$80 dress" that wound up selling for $20. You can put whatever you want on the price tag, but at the end of the day, the only price that matters is the one that rings up on the register.

 

[bweiser]

I am actually NOT calling him a first-round talent, I'm just disagreeing with your assesment that, because he wasn't taken in the first round, he wasn't a first-round talent.

How many teams needed a QB? Rule out late-round QBs, maybe 4th or 5th on down.

That leaves Bradford, Tebow, Clausen and McCoy. So, really, 4 teams had a 'NEED' for a QB. 2 of those teams took QBs in the first round.

While we all think the Bills needed to take a QB, they obviously didn't.

So two teams - Panthers and Browns - took a QB in rounds 2-4. Two. Other teams have an idea of what the rest of the league needs, how long they can wait to get 'value' for clausen or McCoy. Carolina didn't have a first-round pick. Perhaps they thought about trading up, looked at the draft and needs of other teams and decided there was a reasonable chance to get him without trading into the first round.

 

[Saints-Man]

I like Clausen's situation and his talent the most. I would take him before I would draft Bradford.

 

[Donsmith753]

Couldn't disagree more with SSOG here. You think, even if the Cowboys had him ranked as a first-round QB they'd take him? The Colts? The Saints? I think a lot of teams may have thought he was a first-round QB, but didn't have a NEED for a QB and had a greater need for another player at another position.

The Cowboys didn't have him ranked as a first-round QB, though. Their draft board leaked, and he wasn't a first rounder.Besides, as I said, every team looking for a QB (and there were plenty of them) had numerous opportunities to either draft Clausen, or to trade up to grab him. Ten draft picks were traded before Clausen was selected. Do you really think that if a team had a need for a QB, and Clausen was still sitting out there, and the team had assigned him a top-10 draft grade (like all the overweight "draft analysts" running websites out of their basements, or all the neatly-coiffed studio personalities), that a team wouldn't trade to get him? I mean, if he was really perceived as a top ten pick, then any team with a QB need would have GLADLY traded a 2011 first to the Patriots for the #47 draft pick (that they wound up shipping to Arizona, instead).If there was anyone- any single GM in the entire NFL- who had even the most fleeting QB need and who had Clausen in the top 10 on his board, then Clausen would not have lasted to #48. Period, full stop. I mean, look at actual top-10 talents. If Russel Okung was still sitting on the board at #47, teams would be killing each other to trade for the Patriots pick. If Rolando McClain was still around, same thing. Maybe you want to say that QB is different because you only have one on the field at a time... but you only have one RB on the field at a time, and that didn't stop the Bills from drafting Spiller when they already had two good RBs. Even the Colts wouldn't be immune- after all, the Broncos drafted Maddox in the first round when Elway was two years younger than Peyton Manning is right now. The Packers drafted Rodgers in the first when Favre was two years older than Manning is now. When Walsh acquired Steve Young, Joe Montana was the same age that Drew Brees is today. Smart decision makers have been acquiring 1st round QBs despite already having stud QBs on their roster for decades now. If the Colts really thought that Clausen was as good as the Kipers and McShays of the world seemed to think, then they would have grabbed him and started grooming him as Manning's successor.If you want to call Clausen a "first round talent", that's your prerogative. Individual teams do that all the time when discussing their drafts- "oh, look, we got a first round talent in the third round!". If someone wants to say that NFL scouts were UNANIMOUS on the fact that Clausen was a first round talent... well, that's just asinine, as actual results demonstrated beyond any conceivable doubt that actual NFL decision makers were pretty much unanimous that he WASN'T. Hell, why not start calling Ciron Black a "first round talent", too? I mean, last offseason Mel Kiper said he would have been a first rounder if he declared early. Let's not let the fact that he went undrafted get in the way of a good story, here.Edit: It's like my wife and clothes shopping. Some times she'll come home all excited because she "got an $80 dress for just $20". In reality, she got a $20 dress. If it were really an $80 dress, then someone would have paid $80 for it. It's not like clothing stores are altruistic and like surviving on the thinnest possible margins- they're out to make the biggest buck they can. If all they can get for a dress is $20, then it's a $20 dress, no matter how hard they try to spin it otherwise. Hell, I could start charging $.50 for fantasy advice and advertise it as "a $100 value for the low price of $.50", but everyone on the planet would know that it was really only worth $.50 (actually, most people would realize it wasn't even worth that).Anyway, Jimmy Clausen is that "$80 dress" that wound up selling for $20. You can put whatever you want on the price tag, but at the end of the day, the only price that matters is the one that rings up on the register.

WOW I couldn't agree more btw.

 

[D'OHtis]

I am actually NOT calling him a first-round talent, I'm just disagreeing with your assesment that, because he wasn't taken in the first round, he wasn't a first-round talent.

 

[EBF]

Well SSOG pretty much laid that one to rest.

I'll just add a couple comments.

There are a few things that NFL personnel men will sell their first born son for:

- A dynamic pass rusher.

- A shutdown corner.

- A dominant left tackle.

- A franchise quarterback.

These are the most highly sought after commodities in the game of football and none is more desired than the quarterback, not only because he touches the ball on every offensive snap but also because a good one can be the face of your team's marketing for a decade.

With that in mind, don't you think NFL personnel people would jump at the opportunity to acquire a franchise QB for their team? If NFL scouts had "unanimously" rated Jimmy Clausen as a first round talent then don't you think there would've been several teams tripping over themselves to acquire him when he fell into the latter portion of the first round?

It didn't happen that way. Several teams with QB situations that range from mediocre to dire passed on him not once, but twice:

Seattle

San Francisco

Kansas City

Oakland

Buffalo

Cleveland

Arizona

It's totally incorrect to suggest that Clausen was considered a first round talent by NFL personnel men. The results don't support that notion at all. Not only was he not a first round pick, but several teams with QB needs passed on him in the second round as well.

None of this means he can't ultimately become a superstar at the next level, but this notion that he was a surefire first round talent who fell into the second round is not accurate. 29 NFL teams had the opportunity to select him in the first round and all of them passed. This wouldn't have happened if he had been anywhere near a unanimous first round value on draft boards.

 

[Donsmith753]

I like Crompton as a prospect, obviously he won't be starting in San Diego anytime soon but I like him to have a similar path to that of Charlie Whitehurst.

 

[Finless]

Gimmie Tebow

 

[jurb26]

Put me in the group that would take Clausen over Bradford.

 

[jurb26]

Couldn't disagree more with SSOG here. You think, even if the Cowboys had him ranked as a first-round QB they'd take him? The Colts? The Saints? I think a lot of teams may have thought he was a first-round QB, but didn't have a NEED for a QB and had a greater need for another player at another position.

The Cowboys didn't have him ranked as a first-round QB, though. Their draft board leaked, and he wasn't a first rounder.Besides, as I said, every team looking for a QB (and there were plenty of them) had numerous opportunities to either draft Clausen, or to trade up to grab him. Ten draft picks were traded before Clausen was selected. Do you really think that if a team had a need for a QB, and Clausen was still sitting out there, and the team had assigned him a top-10 draft grade (like all the overweight "draft analysts" running websites out of their basements, or all the neatly-coiffed studio personalities), that a team wouldn't trade to get him? I mean, if he was really perceived as a top ten pick, then any team with a QB need would have GLADLY traded a 2011 first to the Patriots for the #47 draft pick (that they wound up shipping to Arizona, instead).If there was anyone- any single GM in the entire NFL- who had even the most fleeting QB need and who had Clausen in the top 10 on his board, then Clausen would not have lasted to #48. Period, full stop. I mean, look at actual top-10 talents. If Russel Okung was still sitting on the board at #47, teams would be killing each other to trade for the Patriots pick. If Rolando McClain was still around, same thing. Maybe you want to say that QB is different because you only have one on the field at a time... but you only have one RB on the field at a time, and that didn't stop the Bills from drafting Spiller when they already had two good RBs. Even the Colts wouldn't be immune- after all, the Broncos drafted Maddox in the first round when Elway was two years younger than Peyton Manning is right now. The Packers drafted Rodgers in the first when Favre was two years older than Manning is now. When Walsh acquired Steve Young, Joe Montana was the same age that Drew Brees is today. Smart decision makers have been acquiring 1st round QBs despite already having stud QBs on their roster for decades now. If the Colts really thought that Clausen was as good as the Kipers and McShays of the world seemed to think, then they would have grabbed him and started grooming him as Manning's successor.If you want to call Clausen a "first round talent", that's your prerogative. Individual teams do that all the time when discussing their drafts- "oh, look, we got a first round talent in the third round!". If someone wants to say that NFL scouts were UNANIMOUS on the fact that Clausen was a first round talent... well, that's just asinine, as actual results demonstrated beyond any conceivable doubt that actual NFL decision makers were pretty much unanimous that he WASN'T. Hell, why not start calling Ciron Black a "first round talent", too? I mean, last offseason Mel Kiper said he would have been a first rounder if he declared early. Let's not let the fact that he went undrafted get in the way of a good story, here.Edit: It's like my wife and clothes shopping. Some times she'll come home all excited because she "got an $80 dress for just $20". In reality, she got a $20 dress. If it were really an $80 dress, then someone would have paid $80 for it. It's not like clothing stores are altruistic and like surviving on the thinnest possible margins- they're out to make the biggest buck they can. If all they can get for a dress is $20, then it's a $20 dress, no matter how hard they try to spin it otherwise. Hell, I could start charging $.50 for fantasy advice and advertise it as "a $100 value for the low price of $.50", but everyone on the planet would know that it was really only worth $.50 (actually, most people would realize it wasn't even worth that).Anyway, Jimmy Clausen is that "$80 dress" that wound up selling for $20. You can put whatever you want on the price tag, but at the end of the day, the only price that matters is the one that rings up on the register.

The problem with this analysis is that several 1st round talents fell to the 2nd round in this years draft. The reason for that is this class happened to be on of the very best to come into the the league in years. IMO, it was the best class in the last 10 years at least. In 90% of the previous drafts Clausen and several other players probably don't fall to the 2nd round. Guys like Taylor Mays, Sergio Kindle, Lamar Houston, Daryl Washington, Brian Price, Koa Misi, Terence Cody, Jermaine Cunningham and Arrelsous Benn all had 1st round draft grades as well yet they all slipped to the 2nd, mid-2nd. See there are only 32 1st round picks no matter how much talent is available. Some years there may only be 25 1st round talents. Others there may be 40. Using this fixed number as some sort of justification when there is no fixed status on talent availability is flawed logic IMO. Now if you just don't like Clausen, or any of the slew of players who fell to the 2nd in this years class because of the insane depth, then fine. But But there is certainly more to it than you are leading on here. Unless of course you are negotiating a contract.

 

[jurb26]

It didn't happen that way. Several teams with QB situations that range from mediocre to dire passed on him not once, but twice:

Seattle

San Francisco

Kansas City

Oakland

Buffalo

Cleveland

Arizona

It's totally incorrect to suggest that Clausen was considered a first round talent by NFL personnel men. The results don't support that notion at all. Not only was he not a first round pick, but several teams with QB needs passed on him in the second round as well.

I don't really understand this. Just because you, me or the entire FBG nation may think these teams had QB needs doesn't mean they thought they did.

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

It didn't happen that way. Several teams with QB situations that range from mediocre to dire passed on him not once, but twice:

Seattle

San Francisco

Kansas City

Oakland

Buffalo

Cleveland

Arizona

It's totally incorrect to suggest that Clausen was considered a first round talent by NFL personnel men. The results don't support that notion at all. Not only was he not a first round pick, but several teams with QB needs passed on him in the second round as well.

I don't really understand this. Just because you, me or the entire FBG nation may think these teams had QB needs doesn't mean they thought they did.

Kind of like just because you think every team had him graded a 1st round talent doesn't actually mean they had him graded as a 1st round talent.

 

[Tanner9919]

i'll take Clausen over Bradford. Thanks.

I'll take mostly any of the rookie QB's over Bradford...that O-line will get him killed.

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

i'll take Clausen over Bradford. Thanks.

I'll take mostly any of the rookie QB's over Bradford...that O-line will get him killed.

Aren't we talking dynasty here?Plus, your point stands two years ago, maybe. They have invested a lot in that line. A 1st round pick last year, a 2nd this year and they brought in Jason Brown to lead it. Barron is going to be here another year while they groom Saffold to take his spot. I have expectations of the line being much better this year.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I'm passing on them all and throwing late round picks at Jonathan Crompton, Dan LeFevour & Ryan Perrilloux. To me all of those three have much higher upside than any other QB's for the price. Your most likely going to need to use 4th and 5th round picks on the guys I have mentioned but need to use 2nd rounders to grab Clausen......maybe a 3rd to get McCoy and depending on who is in your league...anywhere between a late 1st to 3rd rounder on Tebow.I'm taking this route mainly because I don't rate the guys you have mentioned after Bradford, I just don't see their college success translating to the pros and as I mentioned above, the price is right.

Late is the where the value is in this rookie draft QB class.McCoy's spot will be usurped by a Locker/Luck/Mallett next year.Tebow is at least 2 years away and has limited upside and high risk.I don't think Clausen will better than Moore let someone else spend a pick in the first three rounds on these guys.Meanwhile, later on you have:John Skelton, a ringer for Joe Flacco's physical attributes, on a team with QBs that are doomed to fail.Mike Kafka, who was a coveted pick in the 4th by more teams than just Philly. He gets to play under Andy Reid, whose system allowed similar QBs like Jeff Garcia and AJ Feeley to flourish.Dan Lefevour, who gets to play under Mike Martz, whose system allowed previously anonymous QBs like Marc Bulger and Kurt Warner to flourish.Zac Robinson, who is playing in New England under Bill Belichick, where a 6th round QB has become a future hall of famer and a 7th round QB has become an NFL starter.Jonathan Crompton, playing in SD, who developed a previous 3rd round pick QB well enough that he was traded for more than that without playing a regular season snap in 4 years.I would take these guys late, wait for camp/preseason news to see who is generated buzz and stash away the ones with good pub.

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

Crompton. I think Clausen is going to be a bust. He has it all physically, but I think he is lacking whatever it is that makes QB's great. Can't put my finger on it exactly but I am avoiding him. Other than Bradford, I would rather wait until the 4th or 5th round and grab Crompton, who I think as another poster mentioned, has a chance of a Charlie Whitehurst career trajectory.

 

[healthpellets]

sounds like a bunch of NFL GMs invaded this thread.

"don't wanna take a QB early. we can get value late."

ya, those 6th round picks work out so well, so often.

 

[Donsmith753]

sounds like a bunch of NFL GMs invaded this thread."don't wanna take a QB early. we can get value late."ya, those 6th round picks work out so well, so often.

I think it depends on the league you're in.I'm in a league that favours QB's and so they're pretty valuable. If you're going to take a flier on a guy with your 6th round pick you might aswell do it on a position that is favoured in your league.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

sounds like a bunch of NFL GMs invaded this thread.

"don't wanna take a QB early. we can get value late."

ya, those 6th round picks work out so well, so often.

Actually in a study I did for Draftguys, found here, the 6th round was the second most productive round for QBs in terms of fantasy points scored.

 

[SmoovySmoov]

I think in the end, McCoy will be the only one who does anything (and that includes Bradford). Just a gut feeling.

 

[jurb26]

It didn't happen that way. Several teams with QB situations that range from mediocre to dire passed on him not once, but twice:

Seattle

San Francisco

Kansas City

Oakland

Buffalo

Cleveland

Arizona

It's totally incorrect to suggest that Clausen was considered a first round talent by NFL personnel men. The results don't support that notion at all. Not only was he not a first round pick, but several teams with QB needs passed on him in the second round as well.

I don't really understand this. Just because you, me or the entire FBG nation may think these teams had QB needs doesn't mean they thought they did.

Kind of like just because you think every team had him graded a 1st round talent doesn't actually mean they had him graded as a 1st round talent.

I don't think every team had him as a 1st round talent. Regardless, you're comparison is apples to oranges.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

sounds like a bunch of NFL GMs invaded this thread.

"don't wanna take a QB early. we can get value late."

ya, those 6th round picks work out so well, so often.

Actually in a study I did for Draftguys, found here, the 6th round was the second most productive round for QBs in terms of fantasy points scored.

Hey Construx, I broke mine out a little differently. I wanted to know the average number of seasons in the NFL, avg years as fantasy starter and avg years as elite starter. To me, we are all on the quest for the next elite starter. Updating this series is on my "to do" list this summer.

 

[Bada Bing]

Clausen, easily. He was unanimously rated a first-round talent by NFL scouts. Many rated him a top-10 talent.

I find it highly unlikely that he would've fallen to pick #48 if this were true. That's not even an early 2nd round pick. He was ranked as the 16th best 2nd round prospect on the leaked Cowboys draft board, so there's at least one team that didn't give him a first round grade. I understand that you're pretty high on him, but I think your personal affinity for Clausen is clouding your perception of reality here.

Honestly, there's really no way that he would've fallen nearly that far if he had been a "unanimous" first round talent.

Several teams with QB needs passed on him multiple times.

On the flipside...how many teams had Ryan Mathews as the 44th ranked player like Dallas did?

 

[CravenM]

Bradford - I think he's smart and in an ideal situation but I don't think he's durable = 2nd coming of Chris Chandler

Clausen - I like him and I like his situation although it's predominantly a running team

McCoy - Cleveland and Buffalo are where QBs go to die. He's talented and seems to be in a good position to start but that franchise has been snake-bitten for so long, who can trust the talent there.

Tebow - As stated above, rushing yards and TDs count more (at least in my league) and he's almost guaranteed to start at some point. Whether successful or not, he can take the punishment and the team will probably stick with him.

Tony Pike - will battle Clausen to start at Carolina; I give a good chance at winning.

John Skelton - will battle Leinart to start for the Cards. Leinart is a slackard head-case and Skelton could start by mid-season

BTW, I'll delve quickly into 2011:

Ryan Mallet from Arkansas - I love watching this guy - reminds me of the stature and strength of Peyton. The upcoming college football season could see this guy sink or become the Heisman-likely-winner

 

[cstu]

Bradford - I think he's smart and in an ideal situation but I don't think he's durable = 2nd coming of Chris Chandler

Sam Waterford?

 

[EBF]

On the flipside...how many teams had Ryan Mathews as the 44th ranked player like Dallas did?

Here's the thing though, someone liked Mathews enough to not only select him in the first round, but to trade up in order to do it. So while there may have been teams who had him with a much lower grade, there was at least one team that liked him enough to make a massive commitment to him.Not the case with Clausen. No one picked him in the first round. No one moved up to get him in the early second round. He fell to a team with a suspect QB situation in the middle portion of the second round, who finally said, "Eh...what the heck, we'll take a shot." This does not happen with "unanimous" first round QB prospects. If anything, they tend to go HIGHER than expected, not lower (see: Flacco, Campbell, Losman, Freeman). Teams with shaky QB situations will give themselves every excuse to draft a QB in the first round. The fact that so many teams passed on Clausen just means that they didn't view him as a first round caliber prospect. Simple as that.

 

[az_prof]

On the flipside...how many teams had Ryan Mathews as the 44th ranked player like Dallas did?

Here's the thing though, someone liked Mathews enough to not only select him in the first round, but to trade up in order to do it. So while there may have been teams who had him with a much lower grade, there was at least one team that liked him enough to make a massive commitment to him.Not the case with Clausen. No one picked him in the first round. No one moved up to get him in the early second round. He fell to a team with a suspect QB situation in the middle portion of the second round, who finally said, "Eh...what the heck, we'll take a shot." This does not happen with "unanimous" first round QB prospects. If anything, they tend to go HIGHER than expected, not lower (see: Flacco, Campbell, Losman, Freeman). Teams with shaky QB situations will give themselves every excuse to draft a QB in the first round. The fact that so many teams passed on Clausen just means that they didn't view him as a first round caliber prospect. Simple as that.

There are other arguments one could make in favor of Clausen, but EBG and SSOG shouldn't have to keep beating this dead horse.

 

[Bada Bing]

On the flipside...how many teams had Ryan Mathews as the 44th ranked player like Dallas did?

Here's the thing though, someone liked Mathews enough to not only select him in the first round, but to trade up in order to do it. So while there may have been teams who had him with a much lower grade, there was at least one team that liked him enough to make a massive commitment to him.Not the case with Clausen. No one picked him in the first round. No one moved up to get him in the early second round. He fell to a team with a suspect QB situation in the middle portion of the second round, who finally said, "Eh...what the heck, we'll take a shot." This does not happen with "unanimous" first round QB prospects. If anything, they tend to go HIGHER than expected, not lower (see: Flacco, Campbell, Losman, Freeman). Teams with shaky QB situations will give themselves every excuse to draft a QB in the first round. The fact that so many teams passed on Clausen just means that they didn't view him as a first round caliber prospect. Simple as that.

I heard that Carolina tried to move up to the Rams spot at 33 to get him but weren't able to do so. I believe I heard someone on the NFL Network say this during the draft. So, Carolina did have a significant interest in drafting him a lot higher.

 

[IHEARTFF]

On the flipside...how many teams had Ryan Mathews as the 44th ranked player like Dallas did?

Here's the thing though, someone liked Mathews enough to not only select him in the first round, but to trade up in order to do it. So while there may have been teams who had him with a much lower grade, there was at least one team that liked him enough to make a massive commitment to him.Not the case with Clausen. No one picked him in the first round. No one moved up to get him in the early second round. He fell to a team with a suspect QB situation in the middle portion of the second round, who finally said, "Eh...what the heck, we'll take a shot."

This does not happen with "unanimous" first round QB prospects. If anything, they tend to go HIGHER than expected, not lower (see: Flacco, Campbell, Losman, Freeman). Teams with shaky QB situations will give themselves every excuse to draft a QB in the first round. The fact that so many teams passed on Clausen just means that they didn't view him as a first round caliber prospect. Simple as that.

I heard that Carolina tried to move up to the Rams spot at 33 to get him but weren't able to do so. I believe I heard someone on the NFL Network say this during the draft. So, Carolina did have a significant interest in drafting him a lot higher.

That might be true, but they could have also traded up to any of the 34-47 spots too but didn't.

 

[healthpellets]

sounds like a bunch of NFL GMs invaded this thread.

"don't wanna take a QB early. we can get value late."

ya, those 6th round picks work out so well, so often.

Actually in a study I did for Draftguys, found here, the 6th round was the second most productive round for QBs in terms of fantasy points scored.

Hey Construx, I broke mine out a little differently. I wanted to know the average number of seasons in the NFL, avg years as fantasy starter and avg years as elite starter. To me, we are all on the quest for the next elite starter. Updating this series is on my "to do" list this summer.

without getting too in depth, how much does Brady skew those numbers?because when i was looking at QB draft rounds in terms of superbowl wins, Brady really screws up those stats.

 

[shader]

You guys want a deep sleeper if you're in a deep dynasty league?

Rusty Smith, QB, Titans.

The guy is big, tell and his coach, Howard Schnellenberger, LOVED him. Said he was the best QB he ever coached. He played for Florida Atlantic.

Vince Young is a bit injury-prone....Titans have a bunch of receivers....

I'd watch the mini-camp reports this summer and if you have a flyer, take Rusty...

 

[Sabertooth]

Clausen

Tebow

McCoy