Unless the game changes, Johnson will be the last. I know it's been said before, but pitchers just don't get enough decisions these days. Also, top-flight pitchers are rarely allowed to pitch through injuries.
Not true at all. The way to win 300 games is to win a lot while you are old.
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All of this is about 300-game winners. I realize, of course, that victories is a generally lousy way to rank pitchers, but it is what it is. Three hundred victories is an iconic thing. Pitcher who win 300 go to the Hall of Fame, no exceptions*. Pitchers who don’t win 300 … maybe they go to the Hall (Gibson, Roberts, Marichal, Drysdale, Hunter) and maybe they don’t (Blyleven, John, Kaat, Tiant, Morris).
*Unless the voters decide to punish Roger Clemens.
So, how do you get to 300? Well, this will sound blindingly obvious, I know, but in order to win 300 games in the big leagues, you pretty much have to win a lot of games as an old man. Blindingly obvious, yes, but this might gets at the question Bill James and I began to talk about in our co-column: Why is it that every time someone wins 300 games (as Randy Johnson should do in the next couple of weeks) people assume that he will be the last one ever to do it?
The reason, I think, is that you can’t project 300 because you have absolutely no idea who is going to win a lot of games from ages 35-44 — and having looked hard at the 12 pitchers who have won 300 (I’m already counting Randy Johnson), winning in those later years is the key to winning 300.
That is, nobody since World War II has clinched 300 victories with dominating performances in their 20s. One way to look at it is to take a look at the winningest pitchers, by age, since the war:
Most wins to 25: Dwight Gooden with 119 (career wins 194), Denny McLain with 114 (career wins 131) — none of Top 17 won 300.
Most wins to 27: Gooden with 142, Don Drysdale with 141 (career wins 209) — none of Top 10 won 300.
Most wins to 29: Catfish Hunter with 184 (career wins 224), Robin Roberts with 179 (career wins 286) — none in Top 6 won 300.
Most wins to 31: Catfish Hunter with 210, Robin Roberts with 206 — none in Top 5 won 300.
Yes, the march to 300 has been mostly about late-life success. Here’s another way to look at it: This is the average number of victories for the 12 pitchers who have won 300 games, by age:
18-24: 32 victories.
25-29: 77 victories.
30-34: 86 victories.
35-39: 79 victories.
40-48: 53 victories.
Pretty easy to see there — the 300-game winners averaged more victories from 35-39 than they did in their supposed prime of 25-29. They pulled in, on average, 53 victories from age 40 to 48 — now, admittedly this is somewhat tilted because Phil Niekro won so many games after age 40 (he won 121), but every one of the 300-gamers pitched after age 40 and won more than a dozen games.
So take someone like Bert Blyleven. After his 39-year, he had 279 victories … more than half of the 300-gamers had at that age, more than Nolan Ryan, Niekro, Gaylord Perry, Tom Glavine, Randy Johnson or Early Wynn. But he could not quite finish it off. Jack Morris after his 37-year had 237 victories, pretty darned close to the average of the 300-game winners (243). But he only won 17 games in two rough years after that.
So, it’s really impossible to predict. Randy Johnson only had 99 victories at age 31. Phil Niekro only had 97 victories at age 33. Gaylord Perry, Warren Spahn, Nolan Ryan, Early Wynn … these guys did not look like great bets for 300 when they reached their mid-30s. But they won a lot of games late in their careers. Niekro, as a knuckleballer, just kept going and going and going. Perry had a late career renaissance — he won 21 games as a 39-year-old and 47 more after that. Warren Spahn won 20-games or more seven times after he turned 35. Randy Johnson was probably at his very best from age 35 to 40. And so on.
So when looking at potential 300-game winners … well, there’s no way to do it. But we’ll go ahead and take a look anyway and the most likely candidates, from age 26 on up. We’re not including victories from the first part of this year.
Through age 26
300-gamers: Most victories, 95 (Maddux, Seaver, Clemens). Fewest, 2 (Niekro). Average 61.
Active leader: Dontrelle Willis with 68.
Comment: How great a story would it be if Dontrelle Willis could be a big contributor to the Tigers this year?
Through age 27
300 gamers: Most victories, 116 (Clemens and Seaver). Fewest, 6 (Niekro). Average 78.
Active leader: C.C. Sabathia with 117. Carlos Zambrano has 96.
Comment: C.C., as you can see, has more victories through his 27th year than any of the 300-game winners. But he’s way behind Gooden or Drysdale, so it’s way too early to tell. How good will Sabathia be as an old man?
Through age 28
300 gamers: Most victories, 135 (Seaver). Fewest, 17 (Niekro, of course. Randy Johnson had 49). Average 93.
Active leader: Jon Garland with 106.
Comment: Garland actually has more victories through 28 than Nolan Ryan or Tom Glavine. And he does seem to be the type who can keep going out there, pitching league average ball and win 14 or 15 games every year for a while. If he has a mid-30s renaissance … hey, this is the point. You never know.
Through age 29
300 gamers: Most victories, 152 (Clemens). Fewest, 31 (Niekro; Johnson had 68), Average 109.
Active leader: Mark Buehrle with 122.
Comment: See, Buehrle is exactly the kind of guy who might sneak up on everybody in five or six years. He’s off to a great start in 2009 too … Buehrle does seem like the kind of guy who might just win and win, and then have a late 30’s resurgence and suddenly, voila, a potential 300-game winner.
Through age 30
300 gamers: Most victories, 168 (Seaver). Fewest, 54 (Niekro; Johnson had 81). Average, 127.
Active leader: Roy Oswalt with 129.
Comment: Oswalt is actually right on pace, which surprised me. I don’t know how he will age, but people have been overlooking him for years.
Through age 31
300 gamers: Most victories, 184 (Maddux). Fewest, 66 (Niekro; Johnson still had not broken 100). Average 143.
Active leader: Roy Halladay with 131.
Comment: Halladay is a bit behind the curve, but he’s still ahead of Spahn, Perry and Wynn’s pace (not to mention stragglers Niekro and Unit), but he’s just so good now, you wonder if he isn’t going to be better in his 30s than he was in his 20s.*
*Here’s a fun little bit on Halladay. You know last year, he pitched well enough to win the Cy Young … he only finished because Cliff Lee had a stunning year. Well, how’s he pitching this year compared to last?
ERA
Last year: 2.78
This year: 2.78
HR/9
Last year: 0.7
This year: 0.7
Strikeout/9
Last year: 7.5
This year: 7.5
Walks/9
Last year: 1.4
This year: 1.1
Overall (with 2009 projection)
2008: 20-11, 2.78 ERA, 1.053 WHIP, 206 Ks, 39 walks.
2009: 30-4, 2.78 ERA, 1.044 WHIP, 215 Ks, 30 walks.
That, friends, is consistency.
Through age 32
300 gamers: Most victories, 203 (Seaver). Fewest, 81 (Niekro). Average, 160.
Active leader: Tim Hudson with 146.
Comment: Hudson had Tommy John surgery at the end of last season. Well, if you want to compare … Tommy John himself had surgery at 31, and he had 124 victories. He finished with 288. So, if Hudson can have the Tommy John second-half of a career …
Through age 33
300 gamers: Most victories, 221 (Maddux). Fewest, 97 (Niekro). Average, 176.
Active leader: Livan Hernandez with 147.
Comment: Just think how many more victories Livan could get with the Mets if he didn’t have the bum Beltran in center field.
Through age 34
300 gamers Most victories, 240 (Maddux). Fewest , 110 (Niekro). Average, 195.
Active leader: Matt Morris with 121.
Comment: Morris actually retired but he still has more victories than any active 34-year-old.
Through age 35
300 gamers: Most victories, 257 (Maddux). Fewest, 130 (Niekro, Johnson had 160). Average, 211.
Active leader: Bartolo Colon with 150.
Comment: Bartolo does seem older than 35, doesn’t he?
Through age 36
300 gamers: Most victories, 275 (Maddux). Fewest, 145 (Niekro). Average, 228.
Active leader: Andy Pettitte, 215.
Comment: Pettitte actually is not much off the pace. He has about as many victories through 36 as Perry, more than Unit. I don’t think Pettitte quite has the distance, but it’s not impossible.
Through age 37
300 gamers: Most victories, 289 (Maddux). Fewest, 162 (Niekro). Average, 243.
Active leader: Pedro Martinez with 219.
Comment: Pedro was ahead of the average every year until he turned 35. He has obviously faded badly the last three years and he isn’t going to win 300 … unless he starts throwing the knuckleball.
Age 38
Reached 300: Greg Maddux and Steve Carlton.
Age 39
Reached 300: No one.
Age 40
Reached 300: Warren Spahn, Roger Clemens, Tom Seaver.
Age 41
Reached 300: Don Sutton and Tom Glavine.
Age 42
Reached 300: No one.
Age 43
Reached 300: Early Wynn, Nolan Ryan Gaylord Perry.
Age 45
Reached 300: Presumably, Randy Johnson.
Age 46
Reached 300: Phil Niekro.
I think there is a 100% chance of it happening again in the next 25 years.
Doesn't throw much more than 85mph, never injured, still relatively young. He seems like the type that will pitch into his 40's...time will tell...
