Age WRs typically began to decline? (1 Viewer)

[lazyike]

There's always talk about RBs who are the wrong side of 30 but what age do we look at for WR. Except for a few such as Rice, Owens, Galloway and Mason it seems when they hit that 33-34 area especially if they relied on speed its kind of over. Who do you think can make it past that age(33-34) of the current aging WR such as Wayne (32), S. Smith(32), S Moss (32)Ochoconco (33),others(?) and still have good fantasy value?

 

[loose circuits]

there is no specific age, everyone's body is different and they maintain differently. redraft value for guys that haven't shown signs is fine. however, I don't like to be holding in dynasty leagues when the wheels fall off.

 

[lazyike]

It seems like Holt, Harrison and Moss to name a few all showed drastic declines around this age following very good seasons.

 

[jon_mx]

Jerry Rice went over 1000 yards 3 times from the age 36 to 40. But that is Jerry Rice. Don't think anyone else has come close to repeating that.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Granted there were some other elements in play but Randy Moss was another guy who seemed like he was gonna go forever and completely fell apart at 33 years old.

 

[jon_mx]

The evidence would suggest to stay away from WR's who are older than 33 unless they are in a league that Rice and Owens are in. Wayne, Smith, Ocho are probably good for one more big year.

 

[Church of Iggy Pop]

What about Andre Johnson (30) and his dynasty league value? A lot of injury issues over the past 12 months.

 

[Bri]

the best of the best will beat any curve. Try doing this study without them

 

[ZWK]

It's different for each player, but most WRs hit the wall at some point in their 30s and almost no one makes it past age 35. The peak ages for WRs are 25-29, and on average WRs start to decline around age 30, but it's not that uncommon for a WR to have a big year at age 34 or 35.

Here is a count of the number of 1000-yard receiving seasons for WRs at each age, from 1988-2010:

age	# 1000-yard seasons21	122	723	1424	3025	4526	4827	5128	4229	4330	3831	2832	2233	1234	1635	1136	337+	2

 

[David Yudkin]

It's different for each player, but most WRs hit the wall at some point in their 30s and almost no one makes it past age 35. The peak ages for WRs are 25-29, and on average WRs start to decline around age 30, but it's not that uncommon for a WR to have a big year at age 34 or 35.Here is a count of the number of 1000-yard receiving seasons for WRs at each age, from 1988-2010:

age	# 1000-yard seasons21	122	723	1424	3025	4526	4827	5128	4229	4330	3831	2832	2233	1234	1635	1136	337+	2

The numbers would mean more if there was a percentage of players that hit 1,000 yards. For example, if there were only 12 seasons played by 35 year old receivers and 11 of them hit 1,000 yards that would be a huge percentage. If there were 51 times a 27 year old hit 1,000 yards but 510 total seasons by 27 year old receivers, that would be a low percentage.

 

[SSOG]

There's always talk about RBs who are the wrong side of 30 but what age do we look at for WR. Except for a few such as Rice, Owens, Galloway and Mason it seems when they hit that 33-34 area especially if they relied on speed its kind of over. Who do you think can make it past that age(33-34) of the current aging WR such as Wayne (32), S. Smith(32), S Moss (32)Ochoconco (33),others(?) and still have good fantasy value?

I actually think faster receivers age better. The idea is that there's a minimum level of speed necessary to play at the NFL level- you could be the greatest technician in the world, but if you run a 5.8 forty, it won't matter. Receivers who are faster to begin with have more speed they can lose before they fall below the minimum threshold than guys who are already near that threshold to begin with. Which isn't to say that all fast receivers will do well, but a fast receiver can add technique to offset his lost of speed, while a slow receiver can't.

The numbers would mean more if there was a percentage of players that hit 1,000 yards. For example, if there were only 12 seasons played by 35 year old receivers and 11 of them hit 1,000 yards that would be a huge percentage. If there were 51 times a 27 year old hit 1,000 yards but 510 total seasons by 27 year old receivers, that would be a low percentage.

In redraft terms, yeah, that would make a difference. If we know a WR is playing this year, and he's 35, then we want to know how the average 35 year old WR does. In dynasty terms, though, it doesn't matter. If a guy is 32 this year, it doesn't matter how the average 35 year old WR plays when the average 32 year old WR is no longer playing by age 35.

 

[Chaka]

There's always talk about RBs who are the wrong side of 30 but what age do we look at for WR. Except for a few such as Rice, Owens, Galloway and Mason it seems when they hit that 33-34 area especially if they relied on speed its kind of over. Who do you think can make it past that age(33-34) of the current aging WR such as Wayne (32), S. Smith(32), S Moss (32)Ochoconco (33),others(?) and still have good fantasy value?

I actually think faster receivers age better. The idea is that there's a minimum level of speed necessary to play at the NFL level- you could be the greatest technician in the world, but if you run a 5.8 forty, it won't matter. Receivers who are faster to begin with have more speed they can lose before they fall below the minimum threshold than guys who are already near that threshold to begin with. Which isn't to say that all fast receivers will do well, but a fast receiver can add technique to offset his lost of speed, while a slow receiver can't.

I'm not sure I buy that. Off the top of my head guys like Derrick Mason, Donald Driver & Hines Ward were never speed burners. A certain level of speed (and overall athletic ability) is necessary of course but after that I think it is the guys with the work ethic and guys who understand all the aspects of playing the WR position (route running, blocking, timing, playing decoy, setting up defenses etc) that end up being the ones poised for long term success.

 

[SSOG]

I'm not sure I buy that. Off the top of my head guys like Derrick Mason, Donald Driver & Hines Ward were never speed burners. A certain level of speed (and overall athletic ability) is necessary of course but after that I think it is the guys with the work ethic and guys who understand all the aspects of playing the WR position (route running, blocking, timing, playing decoy, setting up defenses etc) that end up being the ones poised for long term success.

Driver's not a great example- he put up 51/535/4 at age 35. Besides, while he's no Desean Jackson, his 4.45 forty coming into the league is better than, say, Larry Fitzgerald or A.J. Green. Hines Ward also isn't currently a great example of a slow WR keeping his skills sharp into old age, since he went for 59/755/5 last year (WR40) at age 34. Derrick Mason is a pretty good example, but one counter-example does not disprove a trend.I think a strong work ethic can go a long way towards preventing a WR from losing a step in the first place (which is probably why Rice hung on as long as he did- he didn't have much speed to lose, but he didn't lose much speed because he busted his ### every offseason). With that said, here's a complete list of the 12 WRs to go for 1,000+ yards at age 35+ (plus Charlie Joiner, who averaged 900 a season from 36-38 without ever topping 1000), along with their career ypc averages (which isn't a perfect proxy for speed, but it's the best I can come up with for some of the older guys):18.3 - James Lofton16.9 - Henry Ellard16.2 - Charlie Joiner15.6 - Joey Galloway15.5 - Drew Hill15.0 - Irving Fryar14.8 - Jerry Rice14.8 - Terrell Owens14.3 - Jimmy Smith13.7 - Tim Brown13.4 - Rod Smith12.9 - Derrick Mason12.6 - Cris CarterThese are probably the best "old" receivers in NFL history. There are a lot of burners on that list- 9 of 13 names averaged over 14 ypc for their career. And it's especially important to keep in mind that their career ypc consistently underestimates their actual speed, since almost every one of those guys had a ypc during the first half of their careers that was a full yard or more better than their career ypc. Tim Brown, for instance, averaged 15.0 ypc in his first 8 years and 12.9 ypc in his last 9 years- he was significantly faster than that 13.7 ypc average would suggest.Obviously there are lots of different shapes a career can take, and lots of different routes a player can take to success, but I think there's something to the idea that the players who tend to last the longest are frequently the players who had a little bit extra speed they could afford to lose in the first place. Obviously they need a strong work ethic to go along with that speed, as well as an ability to compensate for a loss in speed with technique and "veteran wiles", but it's historically been far more difficult for slow guys to hang on to 35 or older than it has been for medium-to-fast guys.

 

[ZWK]

It's different for each player, but most WRs hit the wall at some point in their 30s and almost no one makes it past age 35. The peak ages for WRs are 25-29, and on average WRs start to decline around age 30, but it's not that uncommon for a WR to have a big year at age 34 or 35.Here is a count of the number of 1000-yard receiving seasons for WRs at each age, from 1988-2010:

RB age	# 1000-yard seasons21	122	723	1424	3025	4526	4827	5128	4229	4330	3831	2832	2233	1234	1635	1136	337+	2

The numbers would mean more if there was a percentage of players that hit 1,000 yards. For example, if there were only 12 seasons played by 35 year old receivers and 11 of them hit 1,000 yards that would be a huge percentage. If there were 51 times a 27 year old hit 1,000 yards but 510 total seasons by 27 year old receivers, that would be a low percentage.

I think these numbers do a good job of showing the general pattern of aging. There are other ways to look at the numbers that might be better, but I don't have them handy so these should do for a rough sketch of age-related decline.I don't think that dividing by the total number of WRs is the best way to look at the numbers, since there are a bunch of backups and special teamers who won't hit 1,000 yards and aren't on the fantasy radar; why should it matter if most of them are relatively young? Looking at the decline years (age 30+), pretty much any WR who has 1,000 yards one season sticks around to play the next season, so when you see fewer 1,000-yard receivers at one age than at the previous age it's because some receivers tried to play but declined.With veteran WRs, fantasy players mostly aren't looking for breakouts, we're looking for whether WRs who have already put up good numbers will be able to keep it up. So maybe the best way to run the age comparison would be to see, out of the receivers who went for 1,000 yards at age x, what percent had 1,000 yards again the next season. Or, what about those who were coming off 2 straight (or 3 straight) 1,000-yard seasons? How safe is a consistent top WR who's turning 33 (like Reggie Wayne), compared to one who's turning 30 (Roddy White) or 28 (Greg Jennings)? Or, what about WRs who had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons and then a down year - how likely is a bounce-back season at each age? As I said, I don't have those numbers. But my guess is that WRs in their early 30s who have been playing well and haven't shown any warning signs (besides their numerical age) have a pretty good shot to keep it up another year (although they're a bit riskier than younger WRs). But once an old WR shows signs of decline then you should watch out, because bounce-back at that age aren't likely.For comparison with the WR numbers that I gave, here are the same numbers for RBs. This is a count of the number of 1000-yard rushing seasons for RBs at each age, from 1988-2010:

age	# 1000-yard seasons21	822	2523	3424	5325	4426	4627	4628	3529	2530	1631	932	533+	0

It looks like WRs decline about 2-3 years later than RBs. Age 30 for a WR is like age 28 for a RB, WR age 33 is like RB age 30, and WR age 35 is like RB age 32.

 

[lazyike]

It's different for each player, but most WRs hit the wall at some point in their 30s and almost no one makes it past age 35. The peak ages for WRs are 25-29, and on average WRs start to decline around age 30, but it's not that uncommon for a WR to have a big year at age 34 or 35.Here is a count of the number of 1000-yard receiving seasons for WRs at each age, from 1988-2010:

RB age	# 1000-yard seasons21	122	723	1424	3025	4526	4827	5128	4229	4330	3831	2832	2233	1234	1635	1136	337+	2

The numbers would mean more if there was a percentage of players that hit 1,000 yards. For example, if there were only 12 seasons played by 35 year old receivers and 11 of them hit 1,000 yards that would be a huge percentage. If there were 51 times a 27 year old hit 1,000 yards but 510 total seasons by 27 year old receivers, that would be a low percentage.

I think these numbers do a good job of showing the general pattern of aging. There are other ways to look at the numbers that might be better, but I don't have them handy so these should do for a rough sketch of age-related decline.I don't think that dividing by the total number of WRs is the best way to look at the numbers, since there are a bunch of backups and special teamers who won't hit 1,000 yards and aren't on the fantasy radar; why should it matter if most of them are relatively young? Looking at the decline years (age 30+), pretty much any WR who has 1,000 yards one season sticks around to play the next season, so when you see fewer 1,000-yard receivers at one age than at the previous age it's because some receivers tried to play but declined.With veteran WRs, fantasy players mostly aren't looking for breakouts, we're looking for whether WRs who have already put up good numbers will be able to keep it up. So maybe the best way to run the age comparison would be to see, out of the receivers who went for 1,000 yards at age x, what percent had 1,000 yards again the next season. Or, what about those who were coming off 2 straight (or 3 straight) 1,000-yard seasons? How safe is a consistent top WR who's turning 33 (like Reggie Wayne), compared to one who's turning 30 (Roddy White) or 28 (Greg Jennings)? Or, what about WRs who had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons and then a down year - how likely is a bounce-back season at each age? As I said, I don't have those numbers. But my guess is that WRs in their early 30s who have been playing well and haven't shown any warning signs (besides their numerical age) have a pretty good shot to keep it up another year (although they're a bit riskier than younger WRs). But once an old WR shows signs of decline then you should watch out, because bounce-back at that age aren't likely.For comparison with the WR numbers that I gave, here are the same numbers for RBs. This is a count of the number of 1000-yard rushing seasons for RBs at each age, from 1988-2010:

age	# 1000-yard seasons21	822	2523	3424	5325	4426	4627	4628	3529	2530	1631	932	533+	0

It looks like WRs decline about 2-3 years later than RBs. Age 30 for a WR is like age 28 for a RB, WR age 33 is like RB age 30, and WR age 35 is like RB age 32.

 

[FavreCo]

One thing it hinges on is their off-season training routines. A few examples.

A couple guys I had: Marvin Harrison and Michael Jackson. Harrison loaded up on little debbie's, had a great career but fell of a cliff at the end. Injury assisted but I think if he trained better, he could have had another few good seasons.

Jackson busted a big 14 TD season and boom, he was done. Lazy dude.

On the flip side, Jerry Rice and Terrell Owens. Training never stopped for these guys. I can't think of any guys that worked their ### off and still had a short career (barring injury).

 

[jon_mx]

It's different for each player, but most WRs hit the wall at some point in their 30s and almost no one makes it past age 35. The peak ages for WRs are 25-29, and on average WRs start to decline around age 30, but it's not that uncommon for a WR to have a big year at age 34 or 35.Here is a count of the number of 1000-yard receiving seasons for WRs at each age, from 1988-2010:

age	# 1000-yard seasons21	122	723	1424	3025	4526	4827	5128	4229	4330	3831	2832	2233	1234	1635	1136	337+	2

37+ = Rice, Rice36 = Owens, Rice, and who?

 

[ZWK]

It's different for each player, but most WRs hit the wall at some point in their 30s and almost no one makes it past age 35. The peak ages for WRs are 25-29, and on average WRs start to decline around age 30, but it's not that uncommon for a WR to have a big year at age 34 or 35.

Here is a count of the number of 1000-yard receiving seasons for WRs at each age, from 1988-2010:

age # 1000-yard seasons21 122 723 1424 3025 4526 4827 5128 4229 4330 3831 2832 2233 1234 1635 1136 337+ 2

37+ = Rice, Rice

36 = Owens, Rice, and who?

37+ = Rice(39), Rice(40)36 = Rice, Galloway, Jimmy Smith

I probably should've included these links before: WRs, RBs.

 

[SSOG]

37+ = Rice(39), Rice(40)

36 = Rice, Galloway, Jimmy Smith

I probably should've included these links before: WRs, RBs.

Jimmy Smith does not get the respect he deserves (mostly because of the Jacksonville effect). The guy walked away from the game at age 36 despite coming off one of the best 35-year and 36-year seasons in history. He averaged 72/1100/6 (15.2 ypr) during those two seasons. I don't know if he could have become the 2nd WR in history to still be playing at age 40... but it would have been fun to see him try.

 

[dickey moe]

What about Andre Johnson (30) and his dynasty league value? A lot of injury issues over the past 12 months.

I'm thinking now may be the time to move him if you can get Calvin or a RB1.