All AZ Cards are being overvalued (1 Viewer)

[fightingillini]

If you don't think Fitz and Boldin are going to put up some numbers your a moron pure and simple.  Dear god, it was JOSH MCCOWN throwing the ball last year, not someone that has an incredible amount of talent. 

Go ahead and drop Fitz, and Boldin, I'll pick them up and laugh all the way to the bank.  Edge will probably drop quite a bit in FF value, but that is just because with the ARZ D they will have to pass the ball all game long, just like last year, and the year before, and next year, and the year after that, and the year after that.

You're missing the point of this thread completely.Question I have for you is.....will Boldin and Fitzgerald duplicate their stats from last year? IMO, the answer is a clear NO.

The opps that these guys had last year were unbelieveable. For this year, you have to assume that AZ will run the ball 20+ times with Edge in the fold. That's about 10 less passes thrown by Warner right there. Sure, their D isn't really good, but also remember that Edge is a very good pass-catching back. Edge usually catches between 40-50 passes a year. That's about 40 less opportunities to go to Boldin or Fitz.

So, on average, I am predicting that Boldin and Fitz will have at least 50 less targets for this year.....split in half * 60%, gives them 15 less receptions each, at a minimum. I haven't taken into account any improvement in AZ's defense, which was putrid last year. It can only get better.

So my initial projections are

Boldin - 82 rec, 1125 yds, 7 TD

Fitz - 80 rec, 1125 yds, 8 TD

These are still very solid stats, but much less than last year.

I don't think anyone is saying that Fitz and Boldin WON'T put up good stats. But some might use last year's stats as an indication for their projection this year, and IMO, that's way too optimistic, hence, both WRs will be a little overvalued.

Last year was the year to get Boldin and Fitz.

 

[Bankerguy]

If you don't think Fitz and Boldin are going to put up some numbers your a moron pure and simple.  Dear god, it was JOSH MCCOWN throwing the ball last year, not someone that has an incredible amount of talent. 

Go ahead and drop Fitz, and Boldin, I'll pick them up and laugh all the way to the bank.  Edge will probably drop quite a bit in FF value, but that is just because with the ARZ D they will have to pass the ball all game long, just like last year, and the year before, and next year, and the year after that, and the year after that.

You're missing the point of this thread completely.Question I have for you is.....will Boldin and Fitzgerald duplicate their stats from last year? IMO, the answer is a clear NO.

The opps that these guys had last year were unbelieveable. For this year, you have to assume that AZ will run the ball 20+ times with Edge in the fold. That's about 10 less passes thrown by Warner right there. Sure, their D isn't really good, but also remember that Edge is a very good pass-catching back. Edge usually catches between 40-50 passes a year. That's about 40 less opportunities to go to Boldin or Fitz.

So, on average, I am predicting that Boldin and Fitz will have at least 50 less targets for this year.....split in half * 60%, gives them 15 less receptions each, at a minimum. I have taken into account any improvement in AZ's defense, which was putrid last year.

So my initial projections are

Boldin - 82 rec, 1125 yds, 7 TD

Fitz - 80 rec, 1125 yds, 8 TD

These are still very solid stats, but much less than last year.

I don't think anyone is saying that Fitz and Boldin WON'T put up good stats. But some might use last year's stats as an indication for their projection this year, and IMO, that's way too optimistic, hence, both WRs will be a little overvalued.

Last year was the year to get Boldin and Fitz.

Very solid analysis.I agree.

Edge will keep them out of so many 3rd and long opportunities. YPC will go down ..imo. Fitz and Boldin are still great talents and will be solid WR's, just not elite.

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

If you don't think Fitz and Boldin are going to put up some numbers your a moron pure and simple.  Dear god, it was JOSH MCCOWN throwing the ball last year, not someone that has an incredible amount of talent. 

Go ahead and drop Fitz, and Boldin, I'll pick them up and laugh all the way to the bank.  Edge will probably drop quite a bit in FF value, but that is just because with the ARZ D they will have to pass the ball all game long, just like last year, and the year before, and next year, and the year after that, and the year after that.

You're missing the point of this thread completely.Question I have for you is.....will Boldin and Fitzgerald duplicate their stats from last year? IMO, the answer is a clear NO.

The opps that these guys had last year were unbelieveable. For this year, you have to assume that AZ will run the ball 20+ times with Edge in the fold. That's about 10 less passes thrown by Warner right there. Sure, their D isn't really good, but also remember that Edge is a very good pass-catching back. Edge usually catches between 40-50 passes a year. That's about 40 less opportunities to go to Boldin or Fitz.

So, on average, I am predicting that Boldin and Fitz will have at least 50 less targets for this year.....split in half * 60%, gives them 15 less receptions each, at a minimum. I have taken into account any improvement in AZ's defense, which was putrid last year.

So my initial projections are

Boldin - 82 rec, 1125 yds, 7 TD

Fitz - 80 rec, 1125 yds, 8 TD

These are still very solid stats, but much less than last year.

I don't think anyone is saying that Fitz and Boldin WON'T put up good stats. But some might use last year's stats as an indication for their projection this year, and IMO, that's way too optimistic, hence, both WRs will be a little overvalued.

Last year was the year to get Boldin and Fitz.

Very solid analysis.I agree.

Edge will keep them out of so many 3rd and long opportunities. YPC will go down ..imo. Fitz and Boldin are still great talents and will be solid WR's, just not elite.

So if Boldin plays a whole season he missed 2 games last year you expect his numbers to drop???

 

[mbuehner]

Edge will keep them out of so many 3rd and long opportunities. YPC will go down ..imo. Fitz and Boldin are still great talents and will be solid WR's, just not elite.

Perhaps, but if Edge is moving the chains more that spells more plays in general- and more redzone opportunities. It doesnt take many touchdowns to make up for lost catches.

 

[fightingillini]

If you don't think Fitz and Boldin are going to put up some numbers your a moron pure and simple.  Dear god, it was JOSH MCCOWN throwing the ball last year, not someone that has an incredible amount of talent. 

Go ahead and drop Fitz, and Boldin, I'll pick them up and laugh all the way to the bank.  Edge will probably drop quite a bit in FF value, but that is just because with the ARZ D they will have to pass the ball all game long, just like last year, and the year before, and next year, and the year after that, and the year after that.

You're missing the point of this thread completely.Question I have for you is.....will Boldin and Fitzgerald duplicate their stats from last year? IMO, the answer is a clear NO.

The opps that these guys had last year were unbelieveable. For this year, you have to assume that AZ will run the ball 20+ times with Edge in the fold. That's about 10 less passes thrown by Warner right there. Sure, their D isn't really good, but also remember that Edge is a very good pass-catching back. Edge usually catches between 40-50 passes a year. That's about 40 less opportunities to go to Boldin or Fitz.

So, on average, I am predicting that Boldin and Fitz will have at least 50 less targets for this year.....split in half * 60%, gives them 15 less receptions each, at a minimum. I have taken into account any improvement in AZ's defense, which was putrid last year.

So my initial projections are

Boldin - 82 rec, 1125 yds, 7 TD

Fitz - 80 rec, 1125 yds, 8 TD

These are still very solid stats, but much less than last year.

I don't think anyone is saying that Fitz and Boldin WON'T put up good stats. But some might use last year's stats as an indication for their projection this year, and IMO, that's way too optimistic, hence, both WRs will be a little overvalued.

Last year was the year to get Boldin and Fitz.

Very solid analysis.I agree.

Edge will keep them out of so many 3rd and long opportunities. YPC will go down ..imo. Fitz and Boldin are still great talents and will be solid WR's, just not elite.

So if Boldin plays a whole season he missed 2 games last year you expect his numbers to drop???

I forgot that he missed two games......and I owned him last year But to answer your question....yes, I expect Boldin's numbers to drop. Boldin and Fitz had 171 and 165 targets last year, respectively. That's an insane amount. For Boldin, that averages to about 12 targets a game. I expect their targets to be limited to 130-135 each, due to the Edge factor. Assuming a 60% catch ratio (last year, Boldin had 60%, Fitz 61%), and you get 80-82 catches that I am projecting.

Another way to look at it..........AZ threw the ball 670 times last year, about 42 times a game. There is no way they will throw it that many times. My feeling is that they will throw the ball about 550 - 575 times. That's still will be in the top 10 in the NFL. That's a 15-18% decline. Assuming an equal distribution of passes (which won't happen becuase Edge will get many more targets that Shipp), you should expect to see a 15-18% decline in catches, minimum, for Boldin and Fitzgerald. So 80-85 catches each is a reasonable projection, IMO.

 

[fightingillini]

Edge will keep them out of so many 3rd and long opportunities. YPC will go down ..imo. Fitz and Boldin are still great talents and will be solid WR's, just not elite.

Perhaps, but if Edge is moving the chains more that spells more plays in general- and more redzone opportunities. It doesnt take many touchdowns to make up for lost catches.

I might agree, in Fitzgerald's case, since he's a better redzone target. But I don't see Warner throwing more than 22-25 TDs. If I was projecting Boldin and Fitz now, I would give them 15 TDs combined......remember that Boldin and Fitz combined for only 17 TDs given all their opportunities last year.

I would project Edge for 10 rushing TDs and 1 receiving TD. There's 11 TDs there. Add in 15 TDs for Boldin and Fitz, along with 10-12 more TDs from other sources, that adds up to 37-39 TDs, a little more than 2 a game. That would rank AZ in the middle of the pack in terms of TDs. Seems reasonable to me. Remember that AZ only scored 26 TDs last year.

Do you expect that many more TDs for Boldin and Fitz to make up for the drop in catches/yards? In a ppr league, I would find that very hard to believe.

 

[SammyJankis]

If I was a Cardinal fan, I would be praying for the Cards to draft 2 O-Line players on Day 1 of the draft.

They should pray Winston Justice falls to them, and take a shot with one of the other Guards (Gilles/Joseph/Spencer) in the 2nd/3rd.

Just my 0.02.

To stay on topic....I am dropping Edge as of now. The amount of the drop will be based on how I see the Cards O-line shaping up.

Green and Graves have said in local radio interviews that the Cardinals will take at least one O-lineman on the first day, possibly more than one.As a Cards fan, I am hoping for Winston Justice. I think the pick will come down to Justice, Cutler or Huff. (Think Verron Davis will be long gone.)

 

[Buckeyedawgs]

drop all them Arizonia guys all you want! MORE POWER TO ME! Fitz was a TD machine in college. And hasn't stoped yet! I don't expect him to stop with Edge in town either! Arizonia offense will be a power.

Will need to produce to stay in games! They could all drop if Warner gets hurt. They need to replace McCown. But other then that I will not be afraid to draft any Arizona offense player the same place I did last year! I just look at the offense similar to Indy 2 years ago when Manning had over 40 TD,S. Edge sure hurt Manning that year hugh?

Warner might not be a Manning but you never know if he gets protection and can last a year.

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

If I was a Cardinal fan, I would be praying for the Cards to draft 2 O-Line players on Day 1 of the draft.As a Cards fan, I am hoping for Winston Justice. I think the pick will come down to Justice, Cutler or Huff. (Think Verron Davis will be long gone.)

I just got done telling my buddy almost word for word what you just said five mintutes ago on the phone.

 

[Bri]

Edge will keep them out of so many 3rd and long opportunities. YPC will go down ..imo. Fitz and Boldin are still great talents and will be solid WR's, just not elite.

Perhaps, but if Edge is moving the chains more that spells more plays in general- and more redzone opportunities. It doesnt take many touchdowns to make up for lost catches.

Cards per down 2006:1st down

266 rushing plays, 206 passing plays

2nd down

99 rushing plays, 249 passing plays

3rd down

28 rushing plays, 211 passing plays

That will definitely change with Edge. 3rd down stats are ridiculously lopsided.

However their 1075 plays total was tops in the league. An improved D(?) and Edge eating some clock should lower the total # of plays.

Green got tons of production out of his 2000 vikes offense

http://www.profootballreference.com/teams/min2000.htm

and 1999 and 98 and....

I would guess that Green wants Edge to produce like Robert Smith.

Note not many TDs

Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| 1993 min | 10 | 82 399 4.9 2 | 24 111 4.6 0 |

| 1994 min | 14 | 31 106 3.4 1 | 15 105 7.0 0 |

| 1995 min | 9 | 139 632 4.5 5 | 7 35 5.0 0 |

| 1996 min | 8 | 162 692 4.3 3 | 7 39 5.6 0 |

| 1997 min | 14 | 232 1266 5.5 6 | 37 197 5.3 1 |

| 1998 min | 14 | 249 1187 4.8 6 | 28 291 10.4 2 |

| 1999 min | 13 | 221 1015 4.6 2 | 24 166 6.9 0 |

| 2000 min | 16 | 295 1521 5.2 7 | 36 348 9.7 3 |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| TOTAL | 98 | 1411 6818 4.8 32 | 178 1292 7.3 6 |

I have no crystal ball either just throwing this out there

 

[Bri]

gotta correct myself

2000 Vikes rush/pass per down was oh so close to that above

only 5 teams since 2001 have had more than 1075 plays in a season

 

[BlueOnion]

I think people are under-estimated Denny Green's quarterback friendly system. Even if Warner goes down, the system in place is still the same one in which an aging Jim McMahon, Randall Cunningham and Warren Moon excelled in. Even an unproven commodity like Brad Johnson excelled in the system. Then we consider the bums who excelled in the system like Sean Salisbury and Jeff George.

If you are betting on the Cardinals to excel offensively, I hope you are putting your eggs in the 'Denny Green system' and not the 'Warner will stay healthy' idealogy.

 

[Englishteacher]

If you don't think Fitz and Boldin are going to put up some numbers your a moron pure and simple.  Dear god, it was JOSH MCCOWN throwing the ball last year, not someone that has an incredible amount of talent. 

Go ahead and drop Fitz, and Boldin, I'll pick them up and laugh all the way to the bank.  Edge will probably drop quite a bit in FF value, but that is just because with the ARZ D they will have to pass the ball all game long, just like last year, and the year before, and next year, and the year after that, and the year after that.

You're missing the point of this thread completely.Question I have for you is.....will Boldin and Fitzgerald duplicate their stats from last year? IMO, the answer is a clear NO.

The opps that these guys had last year were unbelieveable. For this year, you have to assume that AZ will run the ball 20+ times with Edge in the fold. That's about 10 less passes thrown by Warner right there. Sure, their D isn't really good, but also remember that Edge is a very good pass-catching back. Edge usually catches between 40-50 passes a year. That's about 40 less opportunities to go to Boldin or Fitz.

So, on average, I am predicting that Boldin and Fitz will have at least 50 less targets for this year.....split in half * 60%, gives them 15 less receptions each, at a minimum. I have taken into account any improvement in AZ's defense, which was putrid last year.

So my initial projections are

Boldin - 82 rec, 1125 yds, 7 TD

Fitz - 80 rec, 1125 yds, 8 TD

These are still very solid stats, but much less than last year.

I don't think anyone is saying that Fitz and Boldin WON'T put up good stats. But some might use last year's stats as an indication for their projection this year, and IMO, that's way too optimistic, hence, both WRs will be a little overvalued.

Last year was the year to get Boldin and Fitz.

Very solid analysis.I agree.

Edge will keep them out of so many 3rd and long opportunities. YPC will go down ..imo. Fitz and Boldin are still great talents and will be solid WR's, just not elite.

So if Boldin plays a whole season he missed 2 games last year you expect his numbers to drop???

I forgot that he missed two games......and I owned him last year But to answer your question....yes, I expect Boldin's numbers to drop. Boldin and Fitz had 171 and 165 targets last year, respectively. That's an insane amount. For Boldin, that averages to about 12 targets a game. I expect their targets to be limited to 130-135 each, due to the Edge factor. Assuming a 60% catch ratio (last year, Boldin had 60%, Fitz 61%), and you get 80-82 catches that I am projecting.

Another way to look at it..........AZ threw the ball 670 times last year, about 42 times a game. There is no way they will throw it that many times. My feeling is that they will throw the ball about 550 - 575 times. That's still will be in the top 10 in the NFL. That's a 15-18% decline. Assuming an equal distribution of passes (which won't happen becuase Edge will get many more targets that Shipp), you should expect to see a 15-18% decline in catches, minimum, for Boldin and Fitzgerald. So 80-85 catches each is a reasonable projection, IMO.

That's some sound analysis there. I'm buying.

 

[Englishteacher]

Edge will keep them out of so many 3rd and long opportunities. YPC will go down ..imo. Fitz and Boldin are still great talents and will be solid WR's, just not elite.

Perhaps, but if Edge is moving the chains more that spells more plays in general- and more redzone opportunities. It doesnt take many touchdowns to make up for lost catches.

Cards per down 2006:1st down

266 rushing plays, 206 passing plays

2nd down

99 rushing plays, 249 passing plays

3rd down

28 rushing plays, 211 passing plays

That will definitely change with Edge. 3rd down stats are ridiculously lopsided.

Wowsers, that's ridiculous!

 

[Englishteacher]

Two things:

1) An important thing to keep in mind about the Cardinals is they are treading dangerously thin in the depth department. Much has been said about the depth behind Warner but if you look at their team, the depth is very bad at all positions. Denny has done a good job bringing in talent through the draft and free agency so the front lines are much better manned than 5 years ago.But a rash of injuries could really hurt this squad, perhaps moreso than others.

2) I'd like to hear more staff analysis on this squad.

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

Two things:

1) An important thing to keep in mind about the Cardinals is they are treading dangerously thin in the depth department. Much has been said about the depth behind Warner but if you look at their team, the depth is very bad at all positions. Denny has done a good job bringing in talent through the draft and free agency so the front lines are much better manned than 5 years ago.But a rash of injuries could really hurt this squad, perhaps moreso than others.

2) I'd like to hear more staff analysis on this squad.

As long as they bring in a decent backup QB I don't see as to where they lack anymore depth than other teams.RB- EDGE-SHIPP-ARRINGT

WR- BOLDIN-FITZ-BJ and soon to be AZ HAKIM you could lose any 1 reciever and still have a better core than most teams.

T Leonard Davis -Fred Wakefield - Oliver Ross - Most likely first day draft as well

G Nick Leckey- Shawn Lynch -Jeremy Bridges

I think the line could use help and they need a backup QB bit other than that the Offense does not lack depth.

 

[fightingillini]

But other then that I will not be afraid to draft any Arizona offense player the same place I did last year!

I wouldn't be afraid either..........Problem is that you can't get Boldin and Fitzgerald in the same place. Both will be drafted much higher than last year. In my league last year, these guys were drafted in the middle rounds (7th and 8th rounds in a 10 team league), and were steals. This year, they will not last past the 4th round. Most likely, you will need to burn a 3rd rounder to secure either of these guys.

 

[SoloMatisse]

I think someone's defining 'overvalued' as 'underachieving'. As an example, just because Larry Fitz is the 5th ranked WR and Boldin the 7th ranked WR doesnt mean you need to avoid drafting them. Larry Fitz at 5 is about as safe a pick overall as there will be in the entire NFL this year, imo. So what if he's not coming into the season ranked 30th. You draft the guy anyway. LJ was ranked about 30 to mid30 last year. This year he'll be 1st to 3rd. Does that mean he's being 'overvalued' and we should all avoid him? What are we all nuts? You dont avoid drafting players just because suddenly everyone realizes how good they are. You take the guys you know are good at reasonable points in a draft, and find other sleepers like you did with Fitz and LJ last year. Dont get so caught up in what perceived value is. Just draft smart and pick up a combination of locks AND sleepers.

 

[SammyJankis]

I haven't taken into account any improvement in AZ's defense, which was putrid last year. It can only get better.

You're right that the defense should improve this year. Getting back Bertrand Berry and Antrelle Rolle is a big step in the right direction.You're quite wrong that it was "putrid" last year.

Overall Defensive Rank: 8th

Pass Defense Rank: 12th

Rush Defesinve Rank: 10th

Perhaps you only saw the Cards giving up decent amounts of points every week. That had a lot to do with the 3rd worse turnover differential in the league -11. That combined with some "not so" special teams play gave Cards opponents a lot of short fields.

Aside from the fact that the Cards defense was not "putrid", I don't buy the "good/improved defense = poor WR stats (and O stats in general).

Look at the Top 10 WRs (using FBGs scoring) with their team's defense rank next to them:

1) Steve Smith - 3

2) Larry Fitzgerald - 8

3) Moss,Santana - 9

4) Johnson,Chad -28

5) Galloway,Joey - 1

6) Holt,Torry - 30

7) Chambers,Chris - 18

8) Harrison,Marvin - 11

9) Boldin,Anquan - 8

10) Ward,Hines - 4

So of the top 10 WRs, 7 played on teams with a top 11 defense (top third). Only two of the top 10 receivers played for poor defensive teams.

So what have we learned? You originally argued that the Cards defense was putrid and it benefitted the Cards Offense. Therefore, when it improves, the Cards offensive stats should drop.

In reality, the Cards D was decent, should in fact improve (with the return of Berry and Rolle) and should therefore help the Cards offense.

 

[Traders2001]

If I was a Cardinal fan, I would be praying for the Cards to draft 2 O-Line players on Day 1 of the draft.

They should pray Winston Justice falls to them, and take a shot with one of the other Guards (Gilles/Joseph/Spencer) in the 2nd/3rd.

Just my 0.02.

To stay on topic....I am dropping Edge as of now. The amount of the drop will be based on how I see the Cards O-line shaping up.

Enough of this Oline stuff , Indy has a average OL plus they have Peyton Selfish Manning and Edge managed good numbers .So without a selfish QB and better WR's i dont see why Edge could not do better in Az.

 

[SammyJankis]

The opps that these guys had last year were unbelieveable. For this year, you have to assume that AZ will run the ball 20+ times with Edge in the fold. That's about 10 less passes thrown by Warner right there. Sure, their D isn't really good, but also remember that Edge is a very good pass-catching back. Edge usually catches between 40-50 passes a year. That's about 40 less opportunities to go to Boldin or Fitz.

I guess I agree and disagree on this point.The Cards led the league in both pass attempts and in receptions. While finishing dead last in rushing attempts. So, I think, if there's one thing we can all agree on, its the fact that the Cards will run the ball more, which almost certainlly means they'll throw it less.So I agree with your analysis, but not your conclusion...Balanced offenses are tough to stop. The pass sets up the run and the run sets up the pass. Adding Edge makes the Cards offense much more balanced and harder to stop. (Again, a point I doubt few would quibble with.)So I expect the following to happen with the addition of Edge:- The Cards to pass less (though still pass a lot)- I expect yardage totals to drop, but not dramatically- I expect TDs to rise a good amount.Let's look at the top yardage teams in the league and see how they did it. No team through as much as the Cards did last year. Not even close. However, the Cards still figure to throw the ball a lot. Look at the top ten teams in passing yards. (ATTEMPTS-YARDS- Pass TDS)Arizona 670 4437 21 New England 564 4120 28 Indianapolis 515 4096 31 St. Louis 599 4036 24Cincinnati 538 3820 32 Kansas City 507 3810 17 Green Bay 626 3766 20 Philadelphia 620 3677 21 Tennessee 594 3597 20Oakland 591 3582 21 New York (N) 558 3578 24 San Diego 526 3495 27No team threw as much or gained as many yards passing as the Cards. However, many teams were in the ballpark passing wise and they did it with signficantly fewer yards. In addition, only Green Bay and Kansas City had fewer passing TDs.Larry Fitzgerald might be the best scoring receiver in the league. Do you really believe that 10 TDs is his ceiling? He might trade some yardage for those extra scores this year, but I don't expect his value to take a big hit.In short, they'll pass less, but they'll pass more efficiently.

 

[fightingillini]

Larry Fitzgerald might be the best scoring receiver in the league. Do you really believe that 10 TDs is his ceiling? He might trade some yardage for those extra scores this year, but I don't expect his value to take a big hit.

Do you think Warner will throw 25+ TDs? I don't. I have Warner for about 22, and with Boldin and Edge in the mix, I will find it hard to project Fitz for more than 10. Boldin should get his 7 TDs again. There's 17 out of 22. What's your projection for Warner?Not that I don't think Fitz is capable of scoring more. I agree with you there.

 

[SammyJankis]

Larry Fitzgerald might be the best scoring receiver in the league. Do you really believe that 10 TDs is his ceiling? He might trade some yardage for those extra scores this year, but I don't expect his value to take a big hit.

Do you think Warner will throw 25+ TDs? I don't. I have Warner for about 22, and with Boldin and Edge in the mix, I will find it hard to project Fitz for more than 10. Boldin should get his 7 TDs again. There's 17 out of 22. What's your projection for Warner?Not that I don't think Fitz is capable of scoring more. I agree with you there.

During the last six games Warner was healthy (Weeks 9-15, getting injured in week 16), he put up 317 yards a game and threw 1.5 TDs a game. As I mentioned in my previous post, I expect:- Attempts to drop

- Yards per attempt to rise.

- Yardage to decrease (although not by a ton)

- Touchdowns to increase

I've got Warner at approximately 4000 yards and 27TDs. (Assuming he plays all 16, which admittedly is a big "if".) That's 250 yards a game and 1.69 TDs a game.

That's pretty reasonable IMO, and consistent with the drop in yardage (less passing) but a rise in TDs (much more effecient offense).

You have him down for 22? With absolutely zero semblence of a running game, and a revolving door at QB, Warner, McCown and Navarre combined to throw 21 TDs. Now we're going to add Edge and assume Warner stays healthy and that number goes down?

 

[SammyJankis]

One other thing to consider here. It was mentioned upthread that Edge will steal catches/receiving TDs from Boldin/Fitz.

Its true that Edge is going to catch a lot of balls. He's definately going to score some receiving TDs and take some catches away from the recievers. But consider this: Here's the receiving TD numbers of the Cards last year:

Fitz: 10

Boldin: 7

All other WRs: 2

All other TEs: 2

The Cards throw to Fitz and Boldin a ton, but ignore all other WRs and their TE is invisble. Edge is going to be taking away some of that "pie", but I only see it being split three ways.

I project 27 passing TDs for Warner and I'd split them up like this:

Fitz: 12

Boldin: 7

Edge: 3

All Others: 5

 

[fightingillini]

One other thing to consider here. It was mentioned upthread that Edge will steal catches/receiving TDs from Boldin/Fitz.

Its true that Edge is going to catch a lot of balls. He's definately going to score some receiving TDs and take some catches away from the recievers. But consider this: Here's the receiving TD numbers of the Cards last year:

Fitz: 10

Boldin: 7

All other WRs: 2

All other TEs: 2

The Cards throw to Fitz and Boldin a ton, but ignore all other WRs and their TE is invisble. Edge is going to be taking away some of that "pie", but I only see it being split three ways.

I project 27 passing TDs for Warner and I'd split them up like this:

Fitz: 12

Boldin: 7

Edge: 3

All Others: 5

I agree that Fitz, Boldin, and Edge will get most of the pie.....but27 Passing TDs is a little high for Warner. Manning threw 28 TDs last year, and is a lot better of a QB than Warner is now, and had a lot of weapons at his disposal. Only Manning and Palmer threw more than 27 TDs last year. I believe that everything would have to go right for Warner to meet or exceed that projection.

 

[mbuehner]

I dont think Warner will throw 27 tds... but i dont see him starting 16 games either. I think this offense will be in that ballpark. Heck, Washington threw 25 tds last season! San Diego threw 27.

I dont think its a good idea to divvy up your recievers by how many TDs the QB can project, its better to focus on the offense as a whole. The first way works great for Peyton Manning, but most teams will see somebody else at the helm for at least a few quarters of action, whether it be injury or blowout. AZ is going to be blown out of some games most likely, and especially if a QB is drafted, somebody else is likely to rack up a few TDs in garbage time.

Secondly last season was a down year for passing for some reason (injuries- continuity, etc). In 2004, 10 teams had 27 TDs or more. In 2003 it was 9. So much for the receiver friendly rules I guess.

 

[Bri]

I dont think Warner will throw 27 tds... but i dont see him starting 16 games either. I think this offense will be in that ballpark. Heck, Washington threw 25 tds last season! San Diego threw 27.

I dont think its a good idea to divvy up your recievers by how many TDs the QB can project, its better to focus on the offense as a whole. The first way works great for Peyton Manning, but most teams will see somebody else at the helm for at least a few quarters of action, whether it be injury or blowout. AZ is going to be blown out of some games most likely, and especially if a QB is drafted, somebody else is likely to rack up a few TDs in garbage time.

Secondly last season was a down year for passing for some reason (injuries- continuity, etc). In 2004, 10 teams had 27 TDs or more. In 2003 it was 9. So much for the receiver friendly rules I guess.

They went thru a bunch of TEs and have "no one" now so I still expect them to address that in FA or the draft. A good TE should spread things out nicely in the redzone. The QBs combined for 21 TDs last year so if ya give Edge and the TE 3 each you're there.

 

[Bri]

Also, Green has had an obsession with a 3 WR set for a while now. He didn't get to use it too much in Minny as Reed got hurt. Long story short he believes this 3 WR O would be "unstoppable".

I could easily see them getting a WR in trade, re-signing Bryant Johnson, or surprising folks and taking a WR in the draft.

He even mentioned recently how Edge affords them the ability to roll with 3 WRs....one sec I'll find the quote

“The best thing about him is his ability to block and pick up the blitz? Why? Because the Cards can now go with a three wide out package with Edge in the backfield and blast people. He’s truly an every down back.”

can't find it+gotta run, above is by someone else here

http://www.azcardinals.com/news/detail.php?PRKey=807

 

[SammyJankis]

Also, Green has had an obsession with a 3 WR set for a while now. He didn't get to use it too much in Minny as Reed got hurt. Long story short he believes this 3 WR O would be "unstoppable".

I could easily see them getting a WR in trade, re-signing Bryant Johnson, or surprising folks and taking a WR in the draft.

He even mentioned recently how Edge affords them the ability to roll with 3 WRs....one sec I'll find the quote

“The best thing about him is his ability to block and pick up the blitz? Why? Because the Cards can now go with a three wide out package with Edge in the backfield and blast people. He’s truly an every down back.”

can't find it+gotta run, above is by someone else here

http://www.azcardinals.com/news/detail.php?PRKey=807

Your most likely candidate to be the WR3 for the Cards is Az-Hakim. This was reported as almost a done deal about a month ago, but didn't get done. Hakim really wants to play for the Cards, and the Cards want him. However, he wants a lot more money than the Cards feel he is worth.Rumor is this will get done around draft day. If not, Johnson could be retained. Either way, I don't see the Cards WR3 gobbling up a lot of TDs.

 

[SammyJankis]

I agree that Fitz, Boldin, and Edge will get most of the pie.....but

27 Passing TDs is a little high for Warner. Manning threw 28 TDs last year, and is a lot better of a QB than Warner is now, and had a lot of weapons at his disposal. Only Manning and Palmer threw more than 27 TDs last year. I believe that everything would have to go right for Warner to meet or exceed that projection.

I'm definately bullish on Warner this year. So I could be overly optimistic, but consider this.You make the comparison to Manning and the Colts. The Cardinals were first in pass attempts(670) last year, while the Colts were only 15th (515). As I mentioned upthread, I expect that number to drop with the arrival of Edge (it has to), but I don't think it will decrease by 155. I would still expect the Cards to rank inside the top 5 in pass attempts.

So my point is, Warner doesn't have to be anywhere near as efficient as Manning to throw 27TDs. He'll likely get a signficant more number of throws to pad his TD total.