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All AZ Cards are being overvalued (1 Viewer)

Fullback Fro

Fullback Fro

yesno
Everyone seems to agee that that Arizona is going to be a high powered offense behind the arm of Kurt Warner. He put up some great numbers when he played.

Now look at how many games he's played the last 4 years. He has never played an entire season since 2001 and only twice in his whole career. (99,01).

http://footballguys.com/WarnKu00-3.php

The dude ALWAYS gets injured. So why do I downgrade Fits and Boldin even though they were able to put up decent numbers when Warner was not playing due to injury? Because the strong armed young but battle tested Joshn McCown has left the building. Who's the backup now? Navarre, Roahn Davey? Right.

Fitz is coming off the board as a top 3 WR in drafts and mocks so far. Boldin is a one rund behind. There are safer guys out there.

It obvious that Edge is downgraded with his move to AZ. NOw downgrade him a little more with out a solid QB in there.

Even though these players will start out strong with Warner behind center, WHEN he gets injured a dramatic production reduction will occur and it will be right when you need them the most, in the stretch run or playoffs.

 
I still don't get why people are downgrading Edge. :no:
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You think he will out perform what he was able to do in Indy?
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It's a possibility, but not likely. I just can't see him dropping out of the top 10. The difference IMO will not be noticeable.
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I liken Edge's move to Zona the same as Portis's move to Washington, only Edge has a lot more use on his body.If he stays healthy all year, he'll be productive, but he'll disappoint anyone who takes him 5-6.

 
Good point about Warner, so I'm moving Navarre to #12 on my QB list. Not sure what you mean about overvaluing Zona players though. :P

 
Arizona was the number 1 passing offense in football last season. I will say that again. Arizona was the number 1 passing offense in football last season. Even Josh McCown put up good numbers with that squad. Whoever is at the helm will have good success. I believe Navarre is still around and he cant be much more of a statue than Warner is.

If anything AZ WRs are probably undervalued at this point.

 
Arizona was the number 1 passing offense in football last season. I will say that again. Arizona was the number 1 passing offense in football last season. Even Josh McCown put up good numbers with that squad. Whoever is at the helm will have good success. I believe Navarre is still around and he cant be much more of a statue than Warner is.

If anything AZ WRs are probably undervalued at this point.
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McCown was battle tested and an had a substantial amount of NFL experience when Warner went down. Navarre doe snot have these attributes. He will struggle much unlike McCown did. Navarre will have trouble adjusting to the speedc of the NFL and being able to make the correct reads in games speed. He will struggle much like all young inexperienced QB's that have a week offensive line. The only significant action he has is 1 gmae last year where they were soundly beat by Houston, the worst team in football.

 
Navarre will have trouble adjusting to the speedc of the NFL and being able to make the correct reads in games speed. He will struggle much like all young inexperienced QB's that have a week offensive line.
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The fact that Warner is not currently in a coma speaks to the ability of Arizona pass protection. Navarre is going into his 3rd year, and played exensively in college in a pro-style offense. Its ready or not time. He wont get much slack and will expected to perform like a veteran within a game or so. Assuming AZ doesnt draft a blue chipper.
 
Navarre will have trouble adjusting to the speedc of the NFL and being able to make the correct reads in games speed. He will struggle much like all young inexperienced QB's that have a week offensive line.
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The fact that Warner is not currently in a coma speaks to the ability of Arizona pass protection. Navarre is going into his 3rd year, and played exensively in college in a pro-style offense. Its ready or not time. He wont get much slack and will expected to perform like a veteran within a game or so. Assuming AZ doesnt draft a blue chipper.
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Warner was knocked out of week 15 game and missed week 16 game. Real good O-Line
 
For some reason this team feels like Detroit of last year....
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EXCEPT THE FACTFitz > Williams

Boldin > Rogers

Warner > Joey

Edge> KJ

All four players for the Cards Warner, Fitz ,Boldin, Edge are Pro Bowlers none of the Detroit players have ever made the trip. well Jones was an alternate.

IMO it is very very diffrent.

 
For some reason this team feels like Detroit of last year....
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EXCEPT THE FACTFitz > Williams

Boldin > Rogers

Warner > Joey

Edge> KJ

All four players for the Cards Warner, Fitz ,Boldin, Edge are Pro Bowlers none of the Detroit players have ever made the trip. well Jones was an alternate.

IMO it is very very diffrent.
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Good point in this post... but I would still accept the notion that players like Edge, Fitz, and Boldin could very likely droop in their respective production simply because there aren't enough balls to go around (unless Zona has a lot of sustained drives each game). At the very least, one could argue that all three of those players wont have their current rank by the end of the year, making them "sell high" candidates right now. I'm personally staying away from all of them until their values come back to earth, which I see happening at least somewhat this season.

 
For some reason this team feels like Detroit of last year....
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EXCEPT THE FACTFitz > Williams

Boldin > Rogers

Warner > Joey

Edge> KJ

All four players for the Cards Warner, Fitz ,Boldin, Edge are Pro Bowlers none of the Detroit players have ever made the trip. well Jones was an alternate.

IMO it is very very diffrent.
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Good point in this post... but I would still accept the notion that players like Edge, Fitz, and Boldin could very likely droop in their respective production simply because there aren't enough balls to go around (unless Zona has a lot of sustained drives each game). At the very least, one could argue that all three of those players wont have their current rank by the end of the year, making them "sell high" candidates right now. I'm personally staying away from all of them until their values come back to earth, which I see happening at least somewhat this season.
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:goodposting:
 
Everyone seems to agee that that Arizona is going to be a high powered offense behind the arm of Kurt Warner. He put up some great numbers when he played.

Now look at how many games he's played the last 4 years. He has never played an entire season since 2001 and only twice in his whole career. (99,01).
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So what you are saying is that WHEN Warner plays a whole season he lands in the SB? :P
 
You're assuming that:

A) Warner gets hurt AND

B) The Cards roll with Navarre/rookie as QB2 AND

C) That Navarre/rookie effecitvely devalue the AZ offense

Lots of ANDs in that logic. Cross off any of the above and your theory goes down the drain.

Cards sign Kerry Collins, Joey Harrington or a salary cap casualty QB this summer and your theory is out the window. Warner plays 13+ games and your theory is out the window.

I'd have to look at ADP for Warner, Edge, Fitz, Boldin, etc to see if these guys are currently being overvalued.

But what I'm hearing from you is "Warner is going to get injured and the Cards have no other QBs, so their offense is likely to tank." and I disagree strongly.

 
You're assuming that:

A) Warner gets hurt AND

B) The Cards roll with Navarre/rookie as QB2 AND

C) That Navarre/rookie effecitvely devalue the AZ offense

Lots of ANDs in that logic. Cross off any of the above and your theory goes down the drain.

Cards sign Kerry Collins, Joey Harrington or a salary cap casualty QB this summer and your theory is out the window. Warner plays 13+ games and your theory is out the window.

I'd have to look at ADP for Warner, Edge, Fitz, Boldin, etc to see if these guys are currently being overvalued.

But what I'm hearing from you is "Warner is going to get injured and the Cards have no other QBs, so their offense is likely to tank." and I disagree strongly.
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That looks like a lot of IFS in your logic. IF Warner plays 13+ games, IF they get a good backup QB IF Navarre is a good QB.
 
Everyone seems to agee that that Arizona is going to be a high powered offense behind the arm of Kurt Warner. He put up some great numbers when he played.

Now look at how many games he's played the last 4 years. He has never played an entire season since 2001 and only twice in his whole career. (99,01).

http://footballguys.com/WarnKu00-3.php

The dude ALWAYS gets injured. So why do I downgrade Fits and Boldin even though they were able to put up decent numbers when Warner was not playing due to injury? Because the strong armed young but battle tested Joshn McCown has left the building. Who's the backup now? Navarre, Roahn Davey? Right.

Fitz is coming off the board as a top 3 WR in drafts and mocks so far. Boldin is a one rund behind. There are safer guys out there.

It obvious that Edge is downgraded with his move to AZ. NOw downgrade him a little more with out a solid QB in there.

Even though these players will start out strong with Warner behind center, WHEN he gets injured a dramatic production reduction will occur and it will be right when you need them the most, in the stretch run or playoffs.
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I think you're way off and are going to regret it during the FF season
 
Everyone seems to agee that that Arizona is going to be a high powered offense behind the arm of Kurt Warner. He put up some great numbers when he played.

Now look at how many games he's played the last 4 years. He has never played an entire season since 2001 and only twice in his whole career. (99,01).

http://footballguys.com/WarnKu00-3.php

The dude ALWAYS gets injured. So why do I downgrade Fits and Boldin even though they were able to put up decent numbers when Warner was not playing due to injury? Because the strong armed young but battle tested Joshn McCown has left the building. Who's the backup now? Navarre, Roahn Davey? Right.

Fitz is coming off the board as a top 3 WR in drafts and mocks so far. Boldin is a one rund behind. There are safer guys out there.

It obvious that Edge is downgraded with his move to AZ. NOw downgrade him a little more with out a solid QB in there.

Even though these players will start out strong with Warner behind center, WHEN he gets injured a dramatic production reduction will occur and it will be right when you need them the most, in the stretch run or playoffs.
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I agree with this. Fitz is really up there on most WR boards. I like the kid and think he will be a great WR in the NFL for years but I'm not sold on Warner being healthy, and as you pointed out, who else is there? He is a player with great potential upside but I have to think he will be drafted way to early in most leagues to have value.
 
Arizona was the number 1 passing offense in football last season. I will say that again. Arizona was the number 1 passing offense in football last season. Even Josh McCown put up good numbers with that squad. Whoever is at the helm will have good success. I believe Navarre is still around and he cant be much more of a statue than Warner is.

If anything AZ WRs are probably undervalued at this point.
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Arizona was the number 1 passing offense in the league last year because they were getting blown out every game and were therefore left throwing from the heels in Q4. As the defense improves, that fact will change.
 
Giants (with Warner) and the Cards last year were two of the worst lines in recent memory. I know Texans fans will disagree but....

 
Can we get some ADP's on these guys? Tough to argue that guys are "overvalued" or "undervalued" without some #'s.

 
I still don't get why people are downgrading Edge. :no:
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You think he will out perform what he was able to do in Indy?
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I do.Whether he averages 4.5 yards a carry because there's only six guys in the box, or he averages 4.5 yars a carry because the 350lb linemen in front of him each eat two guys.... I'll take it either way.

Whether he gets 50 receptions a year because Peyton Manning has to throw the ball 900 times a game, or he gets 50 receptions because Kurt Warner can't throw more than 10 yards and doesn't have time behind the fat, immobile OL to find his Fitz and Bolden... I'll take it either way.

Whether he gets 15 TDs a year because everyone is thinking pass and he just runs up the middle, or he gets 15 TDs a year because the offense can't get the ball in the endzone any other way... I'll take it either way.

Again, it's a different set of circumstances in AZ than in Indy, but I'll take it either way.

He's going to be a stud, and whether it's by default because of Peyton Manning's amazing production or by Kurt Warner's lack thereof... I'll take it either way.

 
IMO this is the springtime shift from dynasty to redraft happening. Young players are overvalued at this time of year because owners haven't shifted gears into redraft mode yet.

I'm going to have a hard time ranking Fitz and Boldin above the old guys like Harrison, Owens, and Moss this year. I'm not sure what to think about Holt yet under their new offense. Throw in Chad Johnson and Steve Smith, and Fitz/Boldin don't have much of a chance of being WR3 for me this year. Like Fro, I worry about what happens once Warner gets hurt.

If you do draft them, trade them around week 6...

 
I still don't get why people are downgrading Edge. :no:
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You think he will out perform what he was able to do in Indy?
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I do.Whether he averages 4.5 yards a carry because there's only six guys in the box, or he averages 4.5 yars a carry because the 350lb linemen in front of him each eat two guys.... I'll take it either way.

Whether he gets 50 receptions a year because Peyton Manning has to throw the ball 900 times a game, or he gets 50 receptions because Kurt Warner can't throw more than 10 yards and doesn't have time behind the fat, immobile OL to find his Fitz and Bolden... I'll take it either way.

Whether he gets 15 TDs a year because everyone is thinking pass and he just runs up the middle, or he gets 15 TDs a year because the offense can't get the ball in the endzone any other way... I'll take it either way.

Again, it's a different set of circumstances in AZ than in Indy, but I'll take it either way.

He's going to be a stud, and whether it's by default because of Peyton Manning's amazing production or by Kurt Warner's lack thereof... I'll take it either way.
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Wow, I don't agree with anything in this post. I like Edge, but Manning's stretch handoffs and the constant nickle/dime defenses aren't even remotely offset by any advantage you can dream up in Arizona. That's a brutal running team, and swapping out the RB will be an upgrade, but there's no way Edge averages 4.5 yards per carry next season. I think the Portis comparison was a very good one - I think Green is smart enough to run the ball more now that he has Edge, so you could see him getting a lot of carries, but it'll likely be at 3.5 per.
 
IMO this is the springtime shift from dynasty to redraft happening. Young players are overvalued at this time of year because owners haven't shifted gears into redraft mode yet.

I'm going to have a hard time ranking Fitz and Boldin above the old guys like Harrison, Owens, and Moss this year. I'm not sure what to think about Holt yet under their new offense. Throw in Chad Johnson and Steve Smith, and Fitz/Boldin don't have much of a chance of being WR3 for me this year.
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:lmao:
 
This offense may be getting to the point where it doesn't matter who the QB is. When Green's offense in Minnesota was clicking, he would just plug in a QB on a whim and away they'd go. You could put in an over the hill and considered useless Cunningham, a guy that no one else in the league wanted in Jeff George, a 2nd year guy with no experience in Culpepper, a guy who wasn't considered much in Brad Johnson, a career backup in Bouman, whoever, and they would all produce. Todd Bouman almost 800 yards, 8 TD's, and 4 Int's in a 3 game stretch in 01 before he went down and the only guy that Green couldn't make something of came in.

Navarre could be another Spergon Wynn, but at this point I'm going to trust Green's track record with QB's until it's proven otherwise.

 
If you don't think Fitz and Boldin are going to put up some numbers your a moron pure and simple. Dear god, it was JOSH MCCOWN throwing the ball last year, not someone that has an incredible amount of talent.

Go ahead and drop Fitz, and Boldin, I'll pick them up and laugh all the way to the bank. Edge will probably drop quite a bit in FF value, but that is just because with the ARZ D they will have to pass the ball all game long, just like last year, and the year before, and next year, and the year after that, and the year after that.

 
IMO this is the springtime shift from dynasty to redraft happening.  Young players are overvalued at this time of year because owners haven't shifted gears into redraft mode yet.

I'm going to have a hard time ranking Fitz and Boldin above the old guys like Harrison, Owens, and Moss this year.  I'm not sure what to think about Holt yet under their new offense.  Throw in Chad Johnson and Steve Smith, and Fitz/Boldin don't have much of a chance of being WR3 for me this year.
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:lmao:
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List the 24 wr you have above them! :eek:
 
IMO this is the springtime shift from dynasty to redraft happening.  Young players are overvalued at this time of year because owners haven't shifted gears into redraft mode yet.

I'm going to have a hard time ranking Fitz and Boldin above the old guys like Harrison, Owens, and Moss this year.  I'm not sure what to think about Holt yet under their new offense.  Throw in Chad Johnson and Steve Smith, and Fitz/Boldin don't have much of a chance of being WR3 for me this year.
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:lmao:
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List the 24 wr you have above them! :eek:
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me?ITYM Tick

 
IMO this is the springtime shift from dynasty to redraft happening.  Young players are overvalued at this time of year because owners haven't shifted gears into redraft mode yet.

I'm going to have a hard time ranking Fitz and Boldin above the old guys like Harrison, Owens, and Moss this year.  I'm not sure what to think about Holt yet under their new offense.  Throw in Chad Johnson and Steve Smith, and Fitz/Boldin don't have much of a chance of being WR3 for me this year.
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:lmao:
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List the 24 wr you have above them! :eek:
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me?ITYM Tick
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I think what he means as hid third ranked WR, not WR3 for his own team. I think anyone would be estatic to have him as their 3rd WR.
 
This is what I have a hard time with regarding the Arizona offensive players this year.

1. It seems that Edge is being underrated because people are attributing too much of his projected '06 performance to the inadequacies of the former Arizona offensive line. Usually in the game of football, things go both ways. The line makes the RB and the RB makes the line, at least to a large extent. Arrington and Shipp cannot be compared to what Edgerrin James will bring to this team's overall rushing attack. That said, how can one expect for Arizona's offensive line to remain stagnet in its further progress? They will most likely address their obvious weaknesses here during the draft or through free agency after some camp cuts.

2. I'm seeing tons of early mock drafts that include both Arizona receivers being drafted before Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, and Marvin Harrison. I really don't see how both of them will get the same number of '05 targets with Edge on board. It seems foolish to just project both of them to have more than 100 receptions each, but that's what a lot of folks are doing.

In general, teams go through a ton of changes year in and year out and I don't think people so far in this off season are discounting the fact that the Arizona offense should be much more balanced with Edge on board.

 
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Warner was knocked out of week 15 game and missed week 16 game. Real good O-Line
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Warner always gets knocked out. Did the Giants and Rams also have the worst o-lines in football? Arizona was 7th worst in the league in sacks allowed- but they threw the ball 670 times (1st in the league.)They were sacked on 6.7% of passing attempts.Houston was at 15%SF at 12.3%Mn at 10.5%Jets 11%Dallas 10%Buffalo 9.4%Cleveland 9%Atlanta 8.6Tampa 8.4%Pitt 8.4%St Louis 7.7%Oakland 7.6%Baltimore 7.5%NO 7.4%Philli 6.8%Arizona was dead in the middle of the league in percentage of sacks allowed per passing play, better than the Steelers at pass protection. And this is with a QB known to hold the ball too long. Dont believe the bluster about the o-line. You dont post those kinds of numbers and keep Warner erect for an entire game (much less 10 games) if you cant protect reasonably well. This line is not bad at pass protecting. They have lots of practice.
 
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Fitz and Boldin are both being consistently ranked in the top 7 or 8. From that perspective, you can make the case that any player ranked that high is being overvalued. It would be real easy for a player to miss 3, 4 or 5 games and finish outside of the top 10 and dissapoint alot of owners. But they are deserving of their draft position. Noone in their right mind would draft them much lower. Now, Warner is a wildcard because of his injury history. Youd be crazy to draft him as anything but a backup. I dont think he's being overvalued at all. People with good sense wouldnt rank him very high because of the likelihood that he'll miss atleast 2-4 games. Edge is being dropped a little on most experts' lists appropriately so. He's coming to a new team with a new system with less familiarity with a worse line a lesser QB and a far less prolific offense. He's not a top 4 RB anymore, but most of us know that.

 
They will make a run at it like the Rams did when Warner , Faulk, Holt and Bruce started to play together.

I mean .

Warner , Edge , Fitz and Bolden i am sorry guys but this is as good or better .

 
I still don't get why people are downgrading Edge. :no:
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:goodposting: he'll be fine in Az..

Obviously,AZ thought enough of warner to let McCown go..so they feel they can get at least 1 more productive year from him.

 
I still don't get why people are downgrading Edge. :no:
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:goodposting: he'll be fine in Az..

Obviously,AZ thought enough of warner to let McCown go..so they feel they can get at least 1 more productive year from him.
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Because the line is good at pass blocking, not run blocking
 
IMO this is the springtime shift from dynasty to redraft happening.  Young players are overvalued at this time of year because owners haven't shifted gears into redraft mode yet.

I'm going to have a hard time ranking Fitz and Boldin above the old guys like Harrison, Owens, and Moss this year.  I'm not sure what to think about Holt yet under their new offense.  Throw in Chad Johnson and Steve Smith, and Fitz/Boldin don't have much of a chance of being WR3 for me this year.
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:lmao:
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I think he meant in his rankings, not as a fantasy WR3. At least I hope thats what he meant.
 
I still don't get why people are downgrading Edge. :no:
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:goodposting: he'll be fine in Az..

Obviously,AZ thought enough of warner to let McCown go..so they feel they can get at least 1 more productive year from him.
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Because the line is good at pass blocking, not run blocking
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line's changing tho
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Only Milford Brown has been brought in. Allen, Hayyer and Conaty unsigned. I can't remember whether any of the departees were starters but Milford Brown played for the Texans and that line sucked.Unless this is addition by subtraction I don't see the moves to make this a balanced or run blocking line.

 
Only Milford Brown has been brought in. Allen, Hayyer and Conaty unsigned. I can't remember whether any of the departees were starters but Milford Brown played for the Texans and that line sucked.

Unless this is addition by subtraction I don't see the moves to make this a balanced or run blocking line.
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there's still a draft and I still expect some FA signings. Stepanovich of 2 years ago and Brown(not Milford) last year were good young players. Seems definite(as definite as anything is with a draft) they'll draft a lineman.The biggest change is their OL coach. Green went with Everett Lindsay(a former player) and he just didn't cut it. Now he's got Steve Loney a perfect fit for the team. He comes from the Vikes. He started out in the NFL under Bugel with the Cards and used to be Oliver Ross' coach years ago.

Green's lines in Minny were awesome. One could be argued one was the best ever as all 5 had made the pro bowl at some point and probably no other OL could claim that.

There's little doubt in my mind he'll build a fierce OL there. Now if you wanna talk about his ability to build a D.....

 
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If I was a Cardinal fan, I would be praying for the Cards to draft 2 O-Line players on Day 1 of the draft.

They should pray Winston Justice falls to them, and take a shot with one of the other Guards (Gilles/Joseph/Spencer) in the 2nd/3rd.

Just my 0.02.

To stay on topic....I am dropping Edge as of now. The amount of the drop will be based on how I see the Cards O-line shaping up.

 
You're assuming that:

A) Warner gets hurt AND

B) The Cards roll with Navarre/rookie as QB2 AND

C) That Navarre/rookie effecitvely devalue the AZ offense

Lots of ANDs in that logic. Cross off any of the above and your theory goes down the drain.

Cards sign Kerry Collins, Joey Harrington or a salary cap casualty QB this summer and your theory is out the window. Warner plays 13+ games and your theory is out the window.

I'd have to look at ADP for Warner, Edge, Fitz, Boldin, etc to see if these guys are currently being overvalued.

But what I'm hearing from you is "Warner is going to get injured and the Cards have no other QBs, so their offense is likely to tank." and I disagree strongly.
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Good reply.Yes, every player can and will get hurt in the NFL. But you cannot plan on a player being out.

 
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