You mean the idjit. Sorry, I don't mean to be aggresive, and I don't think you are an idjit - I have all the respect for you. But it is the idjit in you to have determined objectively that Staley was a better option than Henry. I see the homer reason a lot and it is one of the worst reasons, IMO, to prefer a player over another. If anything, it should shie you away from your homer player. Two main reasons:1) the chances that your vision (not you specifically, but the generic "you") is skewed when evaluating your favorite team's players is enormous. Good or ill, you tend to personalize the players on your team - there is nothing objective about Duce Staley's history, ability, or current situation that makes him a better selection than Henry, and there are a ton of things that make him a worse selection.2) this is the reason why I probably will not pick Ricky Williams if I have a top-8 selection in any draft - one play, Ricky goes down, both my FF team with him on it, and my interest in the Dolphins takes a HuGE hit. Don't want to be going "coulda shoulda" with a double hit of my favorite team and my FF team. If all other factors are equal between two players, I avoid the one from my favorite team because I hate the idea of two season being ruined on one play - plus, I don;t want to hate Ricky for having a bad game when in reality it is the OL, or the scheme, or the good defense, or something else that caused him to have a bad game - imagine, Dolphins win but Ricky only gets 35 yards rushing and no TDs - I'm bummed for my FF team. The Dolphins victory is skewed. I avoid players from my favorite team primarily for reason #1 above - which is the objective FF reason - but secondarily for reason #2.I think your "homer colored" glasses are on if you think Henry in Buffalo - where he was the #11 overall RB, and will be the GL back if faced with split carries - is in a worse situation than Staley in Pitt - where Staley has always been the "between the 20s" guy for the Eagles, where Bettis is much more suited to vulture TDs, and where Staley in a much longer career has had exactly one top-12 finish and Henry now has two: Staley's overall finishes - 30, 15, 20, 47, 10, 13, 124. Finally, what was the RB shelf life in the NFL? 8 Years? And Staley is heading into year 8?If you still think you are right to have picked Staley over Henry and don't see it as a blunder, more power to your analytical reasoning than mine. I would have reasoned this pick as - oops, I forgot about Henry, but Staley's on my Steelers so I'm not bummed with the choice. You see it as an objectively better pick - more power to you.
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All FBG Mock! (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter footballman_696969
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Brintey Spears
Footballguy
New picks:3.7 Curtis Martin3.8 Kevin JonesDiscuss.
Brintey Spears
Footballguy
3.9 Hines Ward3.10 TJ Duckett3.11 Thomas Jones3.12 Anquan BoldinContinue.
ShadowMaster
Footballguy
Idjit?Ya lost me there.....
Goat Herders
Footballguy
Man, I had it predrafted "1. Hines Ward 2. TJ Duckett 3. Thomas Jones" and I ended up with T. Jones. I am not alltogether disappointed as he certainly could turn out to be quite a player in Chicago. At the same time, I was hoping Curtis Martin would slip to me here so I could rely on a known-entity to help offset the Stephen Jackson pick. I'll go on and say it: Depending on how Jackson and T. Jones adjust to new roles, I'm either going to kick everyone's ### or be the doormat VERY QUICKLY. I don't see much middle ground for my team after 3 rounds...HERD
Brintey Spears
Footballguy
I have a feeling we were all drooling at the thought of adding Hines to our respective teams. I know I was.
ShadowMaster
Footballguy
I'm actually relieved to hear that - I was wondering if there was something I did not know about TJ Duckett going into this year.....
Brintey Spears
Footballguy
If I couldn't get Tiki, I would have gone WR1 (Hines), and hoped to land TJ on the swing back for RB2. Looks like it wouldn't have worked though.
There is no way in heck Deuce is availabe in "most" drafts at #5 in "some" sure, but not most. One player from among the pool of Deuce, Portis and AGreen WILL be available at #5, but if you have Deuce rated above those two (as I do) you MUST draft him at #3. In any case - any and/or all of those players are appropriately selected ANYWHERE in the #3 to #5 range. Calling any of those players a reach when selected at any of those positions IS silly.Even at #5 on YOUR board, Deuce at #3 is not a "reach" and I'll say it again - it is silly to say so. That is not objective reasoning on your part or "evaluation" - that is your subjective opinion of where Deuce ranks at years end, I guess. I will not call your opinion silly - I have respect for your opinion. I will call an objective evaluation of someone else's selection a "reach" as very silly if that's what it is. There is a distinction - and it is not a personal attack.Ricky, OTOH, will be available between #7 and #10 in almost every draft - taking him at #9 is not a steal - it is similar to what folks were saying to the guy (Construx?) who said he'd take Edge at #3. Great - that's his opinion - but when Edge is available at #8 in most leagues, that is a reach. The subjective opinion that the player will finish at a certain spot doesn't change the objective rationale of whether a pick is a "reach" or a "steal." To make those terms objective, it is a majority rules sort of analysis - not a subjective "one man's opinion" analysis.All respect to your opinions - but not any respect to calling Deuce at #3 a "reach" - you can not convince me (or anyone who thinks Deuce is a top-5 selection) that there is a SINGLE OTHER player that is MORE deserving of the spot - not simply AS deserving, but MORE deserving. By definition, if no other player is MORE deserving of the selection, it is not a reach.
Poor reasoning. I do not think for a minute you are an idiot (idjit), but what I call the idjit (someone who is not stupid, but, like temporary insanity, is temporarily not thinking very smartly) somes out a lot when thinking about your favorite team's players.Example - I am thinking clearly when I say Joe Montana is the best QB ever. On occasion, I say Dan Marino is the best QB ever - I really think he is "one of the best" but the idjit in me comes out when I defend Marino as the best QB ever - over guys like Montana, Elway, and Baugh. I am thinking that I am thinking clearly - tossing stats and numbers out - but let's get real. Dannie boy never won the big one, which is one of the most important measuring stick. You can't score "zero" there and be considered the best QB ever.
Let's define - how many games missed by either player to invalidate the bet? One game missed shouldn't do it since Henry finished #11 on only 15 games - and Jackson might not finish #11 on 16 games. I advocate 3 games missed by either player due to injury (not because he's too inexperienced to handle the blitz, so he's sitting) invalidates the bet.I'd also advocate we define a "tie" - within 8 points of each other is 1 pt here or there each game. Should that be a push, or straight up victory?
I'm the one who took Deuce at #3, and I didn't even respond to the guy who said he was a reach ... But I agree with everything Selvin said on the subject ... Calling him a reach at 3 is silly ... There is no clear cut top 5 this year IMO ... I believe LT and Holmes are top two and the next 3 are very debatable....
Goat Herders
Footballguy
Fair enough, but keep in mind that Henry may well "sit" a bit himself if the team falls out or the playoff race and wants to get a hardcore look at McGahee...Margain of victory must be greater then 8.:spit-shakes:HERD
ShadowMaster
Footballguy
HOW QUICKLY IT TURNS.....You guys DID see the Henry to split carries news? Now Staley doesn't look so bad, huh?and for the record - Dan the Man was the best ever (of course I also live in South Florida - so this could be another idjit comment).
That's probably a "slight" reach to most people, but I would not call it a reach at all, correct.Most of us have Priest/LT2 as #1-2, and any draft that doesn't go with those two as 1-2 will be surprising. So, any draft that doesn't have them 1-2 might contain a slight reach, but not noteworthy enough to blast someone's draft. If I am Burning Sensation, I guarantee you that Deuce is ranked higher then Priest, and he would select Deuce #2 if he's there. Surprising, but not a "reach."But, to put it in better terms regarding AGreen at #1 overall, you are almost comparing apples and oranges since LT-=Priest is the consensus 1-2 (one or the other goes one and the other goes two) Cracking the top-2 is a little different than being ranked in the #3-#5 range this year. Similar to Ricky/LT last year - 1-2 on almost every chart.AGreen, Portis and Deuce round out the top-5 bucket after Priest and LT - your "ADP" which must be a small pool given it is April - likely lists the guys I mentioned 3-4-5 right? Just because the average drafter has Deuce at the bottom of those other two players does not mean that taking him as the #1 of those three is a "reach" - ADP is not controlling - "perceived value" is controlling and Deuce's perceived value is as a top-5 pick. Same with AGreen.If it is agreeable to everyone (and ADP seems to support it) that Priest, LT, Portis, Deuce and Ahman are 1 through 5, then any of them picked anywhere in the top-5 is a selection appropriate for their perceived value and is not a reach. Deuce at #1 overall simply has to finish in the top-5 to be worth the selection. I really doubt Priest and LT will finish this year 1-2 again, though they will be selected there - but if they both finish top-5, they were "worth" their 1-2 status.I don't know how else to objectively define these things for you in relation to "reach" and "steal."
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Brintey Spears
Footballguy
Buehner, I feel bad for you. It's been light years since you got to make a pick it seems like!
Brintey Spears
Footballguy
I could see another back (Deuce, Ahman) sliding up to the #2 pick. To me, the ONLY player that is a lock for their spot is LT. TO me, if you have #1 and you don't take LT, you have messed up. If you don't want LT, you HAVE to trade down from that spot.I personally have Alexander a lot higher than some of you all. But that doesn't mean I would take him where I have him ranked. I would certainly try to nab him at his ADP. Sometimes that burns you though (trading down).
Goat Herders
Footballguy
nionsucks:HERD
ShadowMaster
Footballguy
Well that was kinda my point - these players are probably equal and the homer in me went to the man in Black and Gold
footballman_696969
Footballguy
Just got home... I skimmed through the thread and here are my thoughts:Herd - I would take that bet any day. Henry will kill Jackson in FP. PM me if you are serious about it.Steals:Alexander (1.6) - Consistent every year.Henry (2.8) - People were saying Davenport would cut into Green's carries last year and I bought into it. I won't be making the same mistake twice. Culpepper (2.11) - Best fantasy QB by far.Tiki (3.4) - Hes the steal of the draft imo. I had him ranked closely to Henry who I took at 2.8Reaches:Faulk (1.13) - Faulk's avg/carry the last five years has declined (5.5, 5.4, 5.3, 4.5, and 3.9)Rudi Johnson (2.2) - The RB situation in CIN is not certain at this point.S. Jackson (2.4) - Don't know what team he will be on yet.D.Staley (2.5) - Would have taken Henry, Barber, and Bennett over him.Suggs (2.14) - See Rudi JohnsonMy team thus far:Jamal LewisTravis Henry Curtis Martin I'm not very high on Cumart this year, but I thought he was good value at 3.7. Overloading on RB's is never a bad idea. I was hoping to get Culpepper, McNabb, or Vick at this point, but they were all gone.
Thats the point, you cant. These are subjective terms. You are claiming they are objective, then you admit that it depends on how you grey things. If you want to go purely by how 'most people' rank the players, then as soon as you start deviating from the average draft position you are reaching. If you only consider it a reach when an arbitrary number of picks are in between, then its subjective and you shouldnt call people silly for differening in their interpretation of how many spaces are needed in between. Consider if someone took Alexander with 1.1. Thats a reach of about 6 positions. Most people I think would say thats a reach. But jumping 6 slots in from the average draft in another round might not register at all as a reach. Its all about perspective. My point is that these terms are completely subjective, so dont try to push your interpretation on everyone else. Especially since its bound to change case by case.
Brintey Spears
Footballguy
Here's hoping he'll pre-draft 4.2! :raisescupofcoffee:
Brintey Spears
Footballguy
Glad to see I'm on the steals list twice baby!
No, absolutely not. You are sposed to take the guy and say, 'yeh i had to reach for him'. Who cares? Reaching means doing things away from the norm. Obviously your opinion must differ from the norm or you wouldnt be doing it. If your guy performs as you project him, you've beaten the system, which is what you are trying to do.
Goat Herders
Footballguy
I am more then a little shocked at how many of you think a darn good RB (Henry) who will be losing touches to a darn good co-RB (McGahee) will outproduce a darn good RB (Jackson) who will likely be the main hauler with no one nearly as good as McGahee fighting him for time.**This logic comes from the idea that I can't think of a single team that would draft a 1st round RB that has somebody more talented on the roster. KC took Johnson because Preist might have held out. Buffalo took McGahee because he was a top-5 talent who slipped. Interesting, that's all...HERD
ShadowMaster
Footballguy
You have to let it play out Herd......I think Staley is a great pick for my RB2 now that he is in Pitt - nobody else does though........I was amazed nobody like this pick.I'm also curious as to why everyone laid off TJ. Sure he may split carries with Dunn, but so might alot of these guys.
ShadowMaster
Footballguy
I'm preselected for 4.5 - I'll catch ya'll tomorrow
Brintey Spears
Footballguy
You're up!
Brintey Spears
Footballguy
Round 3 recap:
3.1 Waterbottles C Johnson WR
3.2 Red Rum T Owens WR
3.3 Juice\'s Core D McNabb QB
3.4 Brit's Brutes T Barber RB
3.5 Psycho M Shipp RB
3.6 redsoxfan M Vick QB
3.7 Mike Vick Show C Martin RB
3.8 Crusaders K Jones RB
3.9 Team Name H Ward WR
3.10 Shadowmaster T Duckett RB
3.11 Goat Herders T Jones RB
3.12 JAA A Boldin WR
3.13 onion D Mason WR
3.14 Buehners Bums S Moss WR
3.1 Waterbottles C Johnson WR
3.2 Red Rum T Owens WR
3.3 Juice\'s Core D McNabb QB
3.4 Brit's Brutes T Barber RB
3.5 Psycho M Shipp RB
3.6 redsoxfan M Vick QB
3.7 Mike Vick Show C Martin RB
3.8 Crusaders K Jones RB
3.9 Team Name H Ward WR
3.10 Shadowmaster T Duckett RB
3.11 Goat Herders T Jones RB
3.12 JAA A Boldin WR
3.13 onion D Mason WR
3.14 Buehners Bums S Moss WR
Brintey Spears
Footballguy
Guess not.
3.14 Santana Moss: Taking a reciever with one of these picks was a lock. Like I said when I passed on Harrison, I was projecting a top 5 caliber reciever to be available in round 3. This was the guy I wanted. 1100 yards and 10 tds only starting 12 games last year. Yeh. Continuing with the youth theme of the draft, I think this Moss can put up Harrisonesque numbers at a cut price. Speaking of price if he holds out this pick sucks.4:1 Joe Horn: I didnt intend to make this pick. In fact im not sure im thrilled with it. I wanted and needed a 3rd RB. Jones and Duckett got away from me. I thought hard about Hearst, but couldnt pull the trigger on a Denver team that has a talent for pulling stud RBs out of the draft. Eddie George darn near got the nod, but I couldnt do it. Horn is a perenial top 5 reciever. He's a difference maker and George just isnt any more. So far my team is stocked with pretty explosion potential. Looking down the rosters it will need it. I passed up the obvious play for a roll of the dice, that I can find a #3 running back in this mess before the end of the draft, and still fill in my other spots. We shall see.
Here's where I have the problem - ADP is an AVERAGE draft position from people who have participated in that site's mock - ADP changes from site to site, and (most importantly) from rules to rules - esp. lineup. And, my biggest problem with ADP, is that it is a fixed point, but the value of the player and his "perceived value" is a range above and below that fixed point number.ADP has little to do with "value" and very precious little to do with "perceived value" which is hopefully the "norm" that you are talking about. How can you be reaching if you get a guy for value?Apparently, your definition makes the ADP the end all and be all of value and your definition makes ADP the absolute highest a player should be selected - selected above his (subjective) ADP and its a reach. And that is where I have a real problem with your definition of a reach. If you are sold on ADP as your draft bible, you are right - my "opinion" on what a reach is will never convince you.Just keep in mind that for most people ADP does not equal where a player "should" or "should not" be drafted. The player should be expected to be selected NEAR that mathematically fixed point - up or down a few spots in your specific draft should be expected. It is to give you an idea of where he goes on average. The range up and down is based on the highest pick spent on the player and the lowest pick spent on the player and the player's actual and/or perceived value is somewhere between those points that is also a range.Finally, keep in mind that value is computed partly based on the drop to the next player, the drop to the last starter at the position, and the drop to the player expected to be available to you in the next round. ADP is a minor calculus for determining the "value" of a player. If choosing a player for value can still be a "reach" because he is selected above his ADP for that particular mock draft site then, yeah, we are done with this debate.
I think you actually selected very well - at the flop, it is almost always best in the early rounds to committ to positions and take two - the main reason being the HUGE drop in talent level from back to back selections.Maximizing value at positions helps create a blanaced team from the flop.
Brintey Spears
Footballguy
What is onion/dockside's FBG name?
