An early look at possible breakout WR's for 2012/13 (1 Viewer)

[ninerfanatic492000]

From twittergregcosell

A young WR who I believe has a chance to be a very good slot receiver is 2nd yr Brown of SD. Liked him coming of SDSU. Fits well in slot.

Brown had major appeal but the signings of royal and now Parrish look like they may stunt his growth and pt

 

[TS Garp]

Adam Schefter on LaFell in an ESPN chat (responding to a question about the likelihood of the Panthers trading up to take Blackmon:

Don't see it, Jeff. If Blackmon managed to slip to Carolina's turn, it would have to be interested. But Carolina really likes Brandon LaFell and the Panthers believe he's poised for a breakout. It doesn't mean they're not interested in adding more receivers. It just means it's hard to see them trading up in Round 1 to get one.

 

[cstu]

* Darrius Heyward-Bey: You've seen the best he's got. I would be selling him like yesterday's newspaper.

* Jonathan Baldwin: He has great size and was a first round pick. I never give up on first round picks unless they have a devastating injury because they are usually given a lot of opportunities to succeed.

You're not consistent with your reasoningDHB had almost 1,000 yards last year and had a good connection with Palmer to end the year. But you give up on him?

Thank you! I love when people look at the structure of the argument instead of just offering opinions. I see your point, and so I should qualify. I could be wrong about DHB, and i certainly wouldn't dump him. He is HOLD. but I wouldn't want to count on him to improve dramatically either. The difference is that he is entering his FOURTH year. Baldwin is entering his SECOND.

While I wouldn't give up on DHB because he IS an elite pick and he does have physical talent and opportunity, I have watched him play enough to believe that he won't improve in his fourth season. I think we have seen his ceiling.

Baldwin's ceiling is yet to be determined. And there is much more room for him to rise after his rookie season.

Victor Cruz didn't even catch an NFL pass until he was 25 so it seems strange to be down on a guy who has made great progress every year and is still young.

 

[Hoosier16]

Maybe I'm confused. You said "caught 50, only a 40% success rate".

Sorry - success rate being the advanced stat that shows what % of a players plays were a success. Mostly measured by a plays relation to a first down, depending on down and distance. Little's was one of the worst in the NFL.

Little was 69th out of 80 with a 43.4% rate. Pretty bad. But, the 11 guys below him included Garcon, Lloyd, Moore, and Decker, all guys with pretty crummy QB situations. Just a little higher but still in the bottom 30% was Larry Fitzgerald. While I'm far from a Little supporter and agree he isn't a breakout candidate, I don't think that stat necessarily shows anything about the talent of the WR.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

From twittergregcosell

A young WR who I believe has a chance to be a very good slot receiver is 2nd yr Brown of SD. Liked him coming of SDSU. Fits well in slot.

Brown had major appeal but the signings of royal and now Parrish look like they may stunt his growth and pt

Those guys were signed more for punt and kick returns than to be used as WRs. One of them may not even make the final cut.

 

[SWC]

i really think cobb from gb has a chance to blow the doors off of the thing he is a speedster and if they start to use him like percy harvin with lots of gaget plays it would be awesome because he is a lot like percy from an athlete standpoint but without the crappy attitude and cobb has never tried to get chilly fired like percy did i would personally like to see a play where cobb lines up behind rogers and they fake a high shotgun snap over rogers head which is actually a jump shot to cobb who then hides the ball behind his back and looks like he is trying to look for the missing fumbled ball and it ends up that everyone looks for it and it is like a huge mystery where the ball went and then when even the refs are confused cobb blows past everyone for a 102 yard touchdown because this would all be done in the end zone and for years it would be known as the magic show from down under because they would do it in a game against new orleans and they would be so obvious with the bounty system that one of the new orleans defenders would actually pull a knife and try to stab someone but then claymaker would pull a sword out of the bench area and say thats not a knife this is a knife take that to the bank brajun brohans

 

[solorca]

i really think cobb from gb has a chance to blow the doors off of the thing he is a speedster and if they start to use him like percy harvin with lots of gaget plays it would be awesome because he is a lot like percy from an athlete standpoint but without the crappy attitude and cobb has never tried to get chilly fired like percy did i would personally like to see a play where cobb lines up behind rogers and they fake a high shotgun snap over rogers head which is actually a jump shot to cobb who then hides the ball behind his back and looks like he is trying to look for the missing fumbled ball and it ends up that everyone looks for it and it is like a huge mystery where the ball went and then when even the refs are confused cobb blows past everyone for a 102 yard touchdown because this would all be done in the end zone and for years it would be known as the magic show from down under because they would do it in a game against new orleans and they would be so obvious with the bounty system that one of the new orleans defenders would actually pull a knife and try to stab someone but then claymaker would pull a sword out of the bench area and say thats not a knife this is a knife take that to the bank brajun brohans

I wish you were an offensive coordinator. I don't know why this play has never happened in the NFL (except for the fear of being stabbed, I suppose).

 

[barker132000]

Vincent brown is my favorite buy this season. I fully believe Meachem is in line for his biggest year yet...and i think thats gonna free Brown up to become a solid wr3. Next year a wr2.

Also believe the switch comes on for brandon lafell....buy him now while his price is reasonable.

With the jets doing nothing to their wr corp through free agency..another guy to get on the cheap is jeremy kerley...wont be surprised at all if he is a PPR machine this season. To me he is a poor mans welker...take a small gamble now.

Though he has semi broke out once before...if you can get Austin Collie cheap..take the chance...should be the top target for andrew luck.

Adrian Arrington or Joeseph Morgan...one of these guys could be a nice bye week fill in...cause one of them should be drew brees #3 read.

Super sleeper.....Tandon Doss. I think this is the year we see Anquan Boldin get passed...hes losing it. Tandon Doss takes top possesion reciever duties towards end of the year.

 

[MAC_32]

Maybe I'm confused. You said "caught 50, only a 40% success rate".

Sorry - success rate being the advanced stat that shows what % of a players plays were a success. Mostly measured by a plays relation to a first down, depending on down and distance. Little's was one of the worst in the NFL.

Little was 69th out of 80 with a 43.4% rate. Pretty bad. But, the 11 guys below him included Garcon, Lloyd, Moore, and Decker, all guys with pretty crummy QB situations. Just a little higher but still in the bottom 30% was Larry Fitzgerald. While I'm far from a Little supporter and agree he isn't a breakout candidate, I don't think that stat necessarily shows anything about the talent of the WR.

[broken record]It was Little's 1st time playing since 2009 and only the 2nd year he has ever played WR[/broken record]Anyone expecting more than what he gave you last year was kidding themselves, this is the year we find out what Little is made of.

 

[LawFitz]

:shakes head: @ AZ_Prof

You need to tuck your tail between your legs and find a different thread.

 

[ADP]

Danny Amendola, WR, Rams

 

[Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub]

DHB reminds me of Roddy White. Couldn't catch a cold early career, but caught on and started playing with confidence (you could really see him finally getting it). Only reason DHB didn't hit 1k is because Hue mysteriously completely benched him for a couple games mid-year (Chaz and TJ Housh were seeing more snaps).

I like all 3 Oakland WR's. I'd prob rank them 1) Moore, 2) DHB, 3) Ford. I think Moore is already more polished than DHB (which is why I give him the edge). Wouldn't be surprised to see both nearing 1000 yards in 2012. (Could surpass if DMC's dinged again)

 

[Cassius]

From twittergregcosell

A young WR who I believe has a chance to be a very good slot receiver is 2nd yr Brown of SD. Liked him coming of SDSU. Fits well in slot.

Brown had major appeal but the signings of royal and now Parrish look like they may stunt his growth and pt

If Royal and Parrish are able to derail Brown, then he was never worth of the "major appeal" in the first place.

 

[Yenrub]

 

[Sabertooth]

For the purposes of this thread, a breakout will be considered a Top 25 finish in 2012/13. Also, a player only qualifies as a possible breakout candidate if he's never finished as a Top 25 WR before (so Torrey Smith doesn't count; nor does Mario Manningham, who was WR17 in 2010).The popular choices:* Demaryius Thomas (WR56 in 2011) -- Strong finish, huge playoff performance, and upgrade from Tebow to Manning makes him a popular breakout pick.* Darrius Heyward-Bey (WR28 in 2011) -- 26/433/2 over last 4 games and showed real chemistry with Palmer.* Robert Meachem (WR44 in 2011) -- Deep threat gets chance to be go-to WR in San Diego.Showed flashes in 2011:* Denarius Moore (WR39 in 2011) -- Had 3 games over 100 yards and 7/195/1 in final 2 games. Great big-play ability.* Eric Decker (WR35 in 2011) -- Good nose for end zone but faded as Thomas emerged and only went over 100 yards once.* Malcom Floyd (WR32 in 2011) -- Very quietly had his best season and put up 24/455/4 in his last 5 games. Health is always the issue but could be a sneaky pick w/everyone focused on Meachem.* Michael Crabtree (WR33 in 2011) -- Will depend on how Manningham/Moss are worked into offense and whether that frees up Crabtree or limits him. Will come cheap as most have soured on him.* Doug Baldwin (WR40 in 2011) -- Came out of nowhere to turn some heads. Gets a big upgrade at QB but has some competition from Tate and Rice.* Titus Young (WR46 in 2011) -- Lots of competition here but fortunately also a lot of balls to go around. Could easily surpass Burleson as the #2 WR in Detroit and could take a step forward this season.* Damian Williams (WR51 in 2011) -- Was inconsistent but looked very good at times filling in for Britt (who should be back for the beginning of the season).* Greg Little (WR53 in 2011) -- Disappointed fantasy owners and dropped way too many passes but did get better as the season went on and should see more targets this season.* David Nelson (WR48 in 2011) -- Started strong and then faded, like his team. Looks to be more valuable in PPR leagues.Dark horses:* Brandon LaFell (WR57 in 2011) -- Great sleeper candidate as he develops more chemistry w/Newton. Smith will be a year older and LaFell should surpass Naanee. * Brian Hartline/Davone Bess (WR72/WR64 in 2011) -- Hard to get too excited about the situation but they're #1A & #1B as of today.* Golden Tate (WR74 in 2011) -- Became more productive as the season went on and Flynn will help.* Harry Douglas (WR77 in 2011) -- Has some big play ability but a very crowded situation with two elite WR's and HOF tight end on the same team.* Danario Alexander (WR78 in 2011) -- Departure of Lloyd opens the door and Bradford should get back on track this season. A situation to watch.* Vincent Brown (WR91 in 2011) -- Showed amazing ability at times. Meachem signing holds him back a little but will still see more targets, especially as Floyd & Gates are often injured.* Emmanuel Sanders (WR98 in 2011) -- Became the forgotten man in offense w/the emergence of Brown but looked good in Denver playoff game and retirement of Ward opens the door just a little for him.* Chaz Schillens (WR99 in 2011) -- He's always had talent. In a potentially great situation with the Jets but needs to stay on the field.* Jonathan Baldwin (WR109 in 2011) -- Physically gifted and should get a lot more looks this season. Could surprise.* Donald Jones (WR113 in 2011) -- Season ended early because of injury. Bills have been trying to bring in another WR, but, if they can't, Jones will likely get another opportunity.* Leonard Hankerson (WR129 in 2011) -- Was showing real promise right before going down for the year. Addition of Garcon and Morgan clouds picture, but it's worth monitoring Hankerson's return from injury.* Donnie Avery (WR139 in 2011) -- Speed demon gets a chance to play more in Indianapolis. Can make big plays when healthy.Notes on a few omissions:* James Jones/Randall Cobb -- very clim chance of any real breakout barring injury to Jennings or Nelson.* Steve Breaston -- regression more likely.* Early Doucet/Andre Roberts -- can't see a 2nd WR breaking out here with return of Kolb and dominance of Fitzgerald.* Arrelious Benn/Preston Parker/Dezmon Briscoe -- addition of Jackson and questions of Freeman make a breakout highly unlikely.

 

[Touchdown There]

DHB reminds me of Roddy White. Couldn't catch a cold early career, but caught on and started playing with confidence (you could really see him finally getting it). Only reason DHB didn't hit 1k is because Hue mysteriously completely benched him for a couple games mid-year (Chaz and TJ Housh were seeing more snaps). I like all 3 Oakland WR's. I'd prob rank them 1) Moore, 2) DHB, 3) Ford. I think Moore is already more polished than DHB (which is why I give him the edge). Wouldn't be surprised to see both nearing 1000 yards in 2012. (Could surpass if DMC's dinged again)

If I had to rank them, it would be 1) Ford, 2) Moore, 3) DHB. However, this is a really interesting discussion because I know that Hue really loved Jacoby Ford. With Hue gone, I could be wrong. New coaches shake it up. Moore is the most natural receiver, but you can't learn DHB or Ford speed. I wonder if right now we are all expecting one guy to break out, but this ends up a target split in a mediocre passing offense.

 

[az_prof]

* Darrius Heyward-Bey: You've seen the best he's got. I would be selling him like yesterday's newspaper.

* Jonathan Baldwin: He has great size and was a first round pick. I never give up on first round picks unless they have a devastating injury because they are usually given a lot of opportunities to succeed.

You're not consistent with your reasoningDHB had almost 1,000 yards last year and had a good connection with Palmer to end the year. But you give up on him?

Thank you! I love when people look at the structure of the argument instead of just offering opinions. I see your point, and so I should qualify. I could be wrong about DHB, and i certainly wouldn't dump him. He is HOLD. but I wouldn't want to count on him to improve dramatically either. The difference is that he is entering his FOURTH year. Baldwin is entering his SECOND.

While I wouldn't give up on DHB because he IS an elite pick and he does have physical talent and opportunity, I have watched him play enough to believe that he won't improve in his fourth season. I think we have seen his ceiling.

Baldwin's ceiling is yet to be determined. And there is much more room for him to rise after his rookie season.

Note to self for future reference: When az_prof says "sell like yesterday's newspaper" he really means "hold".

I am open to be persuaded. After seeing some more information, I realized that he is a hold. I still don't consider him likely to do much better than he did last year. Most FF make the mistake of assuming either that last year's production (if elite) will continue forever, or that if there was improvement last year it is sure to continue to improve at the same rate. Palmer is not an elite QB

There are other equally good receivers in Oakland so I don't see DHB demanding the lion's share of looks like White did in Atlanta (crazy comparison). And DHB has had enough time and opportunity to develop. While sometimes a player who doesn't get an opportunity early on (like Cruz or Austin) will break out later, the longer the guy is in the league the less likely it is. That's a fact.

 

[Moonlight]

DHB reminds me of Roddy White. Couldn't catch a cold early career, but caught on and started playing with confidence (you could really see him finally getting it). Only reason DHB didn't hit 1k is because Hue mysteriously completely benched him for a couple games mid-year (Chaz and TJ Housh were seeing more snaps). I like all 3 Oakland WR's. I'd prob rank them 1) Moore, 2) DHB, 3) Ford. I think Moore is already more polished than DHB (which is why I give him the edge). Wouldn't be surprised to see both nearing 1000 yards in 2012. (Could surpass if DMC's dinged again)

Roddy White emerged once Vick left. Sharks pounced on White when that happened. White was on the waiver wire in some leagues. To me Vick's shortcomings as a QB (accuracy and taking off to run) were responsible for holding White back.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

* Darrius Heyward-Bey: You've seen the best he's got. I would be selling him like yesterday's newspaper.

* Jonathan Baldwin: He has great size and was a first round pick. I never give up on first round picks unless they have a devastating injury because they are usually given a lot of opportunities to succeed.

You're not consistent with your reasoningDHB had almost 1,000 yards last year and had a good connection with Palmer to end the year. But you give up on him?

Thank you! I love when people look at the structure of the argument instead of just offering opinions. I see your point, and so I should qualify. I could be wrong about DHB, and i certainly wouldn't dump him. He is HOLD. but I wouldn't want to count on him to improve dramatically either. The difference is that he is entering his FOURTH year. Baldwin is entering his SECOND.

While I wouldn't give up on DHB because he IS an elite pick and he does have physical talent and opportunity, I have watched him play enough to believe that he won't improve in his fourth season. I think we have seen his ceiling.

Baldwin's ceiling is yet to be determined. And there is much more room for him to rise after his rookie season.

Note to self for future reference: When az_prof says "sell like yesterday's newspaper" he really means "hold".

I am open to be persuaded. After seeing some more information, I realized that he is a hold. I still don't consider him likely to do much better than he did last year. Most FF make the mistake of assuming either that last year's production (if elite) will continue forever, or that if there was improvement last year it is sure to continue to improve at the same rate. Palmer is not an elite QB

There are other equally good receivers in Oakland so I don't see DHB demanding the lion's share of looks like White did in Atlanta (crazy comparison). And DHB has had enough time and opportunity to develop. While sometimes a player who doesn't get an opportunity early on (like Cruz or Austin) will break out later, the longer the guy is in the league the less likely it is. That's a fact.

Since you didn't comment on my post before I will rephrase.Is DHB young? Check, he's 25

Good size? Check, 6'2 210

Athletic? Check, 40=4.25, vert=38.5, 3 cone=6.8, broad jump=10'6

Productive? Check, last year= 64 receptions 975 yards 4 TD on 111 targets

Produced with 3 different QB's last year? Check

QB Jason Campbell/Kyle Boller Weeks 3-6

4 for 115 0 TD

7 for 99 1 TD

6 for 82 0 TD

5 for 89 0 TD

QB Carson Palmer Weeks 14-17

5 for 78 0 TD

8 for 155 1 TD

4 for 70 0 TD

9 for 130 1 TD

What is he lacking?

 

[identikit]

* Darrius Heyward-Bey: You've seen the best he's got. I would be selling him like yesterday's newspaper.

* Jonathan Baldwin: He has great size and was a first round pick. I never give up on first round picks unless they have a devastating injury because they are usually given a lot of opportunities to succeed.

You're not consistent with your reasoningDHB had almost 1,000 yards last year and had a good connection with Palmer to end the year. But you give up on him?

Thank you! I love when people look at the structure of the argument instead of just offering opinions. I see your point, and so I should qualify. I could be wrong about DHB, and i certainly wouldn't dump him. He is HOLD. but I wouldn't want to count on him to improve dramatically either. The difference is that he is entering his FOURTH year. Baldwin is entering his SECOND.

While I wouldn't give up on DHB because he IS an elite pick and he does have physical talent and opportunity, I have watched him play enough to believe that he won't improve in his fourth season. I think we have seen his ceiling.

Baldwin's ceiling is yet to be determined. And there is much more room for him to rise after his rookie season.

Note to self for future reference: When az_prof says "sell like yesterday's newspaper" he really means "hold".

I am open to be persuaded. After seeing some more information, I realized that he is a hold. I still don't consider him likely to do much better than he did last year. Most FF make the mistake of assuming either that last year's production (if elite) will continue forever, or that if there was improvement last year it is sure to continue to improve at the same rate. Palmer is not an elite QB

There are other equally good receivers in Oakland so I don't see DHB demanding the lion's share of looks like White did in Atlanta (crazy comparison). And DHB has had enough time and opportunity to develop. While sometimes a player who doesn't get an opportunity early on (like Cruz or Austin) will break out later, the longer the guy is in the league the less likely it is. That's a fact.

Since you didn't comment on my post before I will rephrase.Is DHB young? Check, he's 25

Good size? Check, 6'2 210

Athletic? Check, 40=4.25, vert=38.5, 3 cone=6.8, broad jump=10'6

Productive? Check, last year= 64 receptions 975 yards 4 TD on 111 targets

Produced with 3 different QB's last year? Check

QB Jason Campbell/Kyle Boller Weeks 3-6

4 for 115 0 TD

7 for 99 1 TD

6 for 82 0 TD

5 for 89 0 TD

QB Carson Palmer Weeks 14-17

5 for 78 0 TD

8 for 155 1 TD

4 for 70 0 TD

9 for 130 1 TD

What is he lacking?

Weeks 7-13.

 

[squistion]

I am open to be persuaded. After seeing some more information, I realized that he is a hold. I still don't consider him likely to do much better than he did last year. Most FF make the mistake of assuming either that last year's production (if elite) will continue forever, or that if there was improvement last year it is sure to continue to improve at the same rate.

Palmer is not an elite QB

There are other equally good receivers in Oakland so I don't see DHB demanding the lion's share of looks like White did in Atlanta (crazy comparison). And DHB has had enough time and opportunity to develop. While sometimes a player who doesn't get an opportunity early on (like Cruz or Austin) will break out later, the longer the guy is in the league the less likely it is. That's a fact.

Well, statistically yes. Most players at any position if they have "it" will show it earlier rather than later - but I ran across an article a few years back (can't remember link) that was looking at WRs who have had a "breakout year" (conventional wisdom is that it is by the 3rd year) and the conclusion was that a breakout year could happen at any time. Brandon Lloyd would probably be a good recent example of that, having his breakout year at the tender age of 29.I guess my point is that, unlike RBs, where you pretty much know what you got within a year or two, it is a mistake to arbitrarily draw a line and say all bets our off about a WR improving any more since he has been X years in the league and if they haven't shown it by now it is unlikely they ever will.

Some observers of the Raiders felt that it all came together for DHB late in the season and that the light finally came on. I must say I remain a bit skeptical, at least to the point that he is not on my target list this year. That said, I would not be shocked if when the season is over, his stats are the best of any Raiders WR. Although if I would to bet on the any of the trio, it would be Moore.

By the way, nice to see somebody can actually change their mind around here after being given some new information - most just seem to double down and throw out some stats to support their position (a poster who uses letters of the alphabet for his moniker comes to mind).

 

[imagroid]

Maybe I'm confused. You said "caught 50, only a 40% success rate".

Sorry - success rate being the advanced stat that shows what % of a players plays were a success. Mostly measured by a plays relation to a first down, depending on down and distance. Little's was one of the worst in the NFL.

Little was 69th out of 80 with a 43.4% rate. Pretty bad. But, the 11 guys below him included Garcon, Lloyd, Moore, and Decker, all guys with pretty crummy QB situations. Just a little higher but still in the bottom 30% was Larry Fitzgerald. While I'm far from a Little supporter and agree he isn't a breakout candidate, I don't think that stat necessarily shows anything about the talent of the WR.

That's probably because advanced stats are kinda pointless in football.

 

[VA703]

leonard hankerson

 

[Two Deep]

Ricardo Lockette......Just ask him ,he'll tell you.

 

[Touchdown There]

leonard hankerson

I have him in one dynasty league. How do you see it playing out for Handerson?

 

[B Maverick]

DHB reminds me of Roddy White. Couldn't catch a cold early career, but caught on and started playing with confidence (you could really see him finally getting it). Only reason DHB didn't hit 1k is because Hue mysteriously completely benched him for a couple games mid-year (Chaz and TJ Housh were seeing more snaps). I like all 3 Oakland WR's. I'd prob rank them 1) Moore, 2) DHB, 3) Ford. I think Moore is already more polished than DHB (which is why I give him the edge). Wouldn't be surprised to see both nearing 1000 yards in 2012. (Could surpass if DMC's dinged again)

Roddy White emerged once Vick left. Sharks pounced on White when that happened. White was on the waiver wire in some leagues. To me Vick's shortcomings as a QB (accuracy and taking off to run) were responsible for holding White back.

Any thoughts on Armon Binns in Cinci? I saw this on CBS's site:Binns a 2012 breakout candidate? Armon Binns, WR CINNews: The Bengals stashed wide receiver Armon Binns on their practice squad in 2011, and there might be a plan to elevate him to the roster full-time in 2012. Though Binns did get elevated for two games last season (he was inactive), head coach Marvin Lewis raved about his potential and said that the coaching staff tried to get him up to the active roster even earlier than when they did. A local product from the University of Cincinnati, Binns caught 75 passes for 1,101 yards and 10 touchdowns for the top-ranked Bearcats in 2010 including six games with at least 100 yards receiving. He had 21 total touchdowns in his last two years at Cincy. Analysis: Binns wasn't drafted by the NFL but has stayed with the Bengals thanks to his big size (6 foot 3) and good ability to jump for deep balls, particularly in the end zone. He doesn't have breakaway speed and some evaluators think his hands aren't consistent. He's one to watch this summer in case he can catch on with the Bengals. Dynasty/keeper league owners could consider him with a late-round flier.- With Simpson a FA it could be anyone that steps into the #2 role in Cincy. Thoughts?

 

[TS Garp]

Count me in as someone who doesn't understand the level of skepticism around DHB. Yes, he was drafted too high, but he's done pretty much everything you'd want since then -- he's gotten better each year and took a huge step between years 2 & 3. He certainly still has things to learn but he's taken big strides. Carson Palmer may not be an elite QB but he's almost always produced a WR1 or WR2 (at worst) for fantasy purposes. It remains to be seen whether he'll ultimately favor Moore or DHB but there may be enough to go around, especially as the Raiders don't have a true pass-catching threat at TE right now. Bottom line: I wouldn't reach for DHB, but he seems so undervalued at this point that you can likely get him at a point where he'll have almost nothing but upside.

 

[Hoosier16]

DHB reminds me of Roddy White. Couldn't catch a cold early career, but caught on and started playing with confidence (you could really see him finally getting it). Only reason DHB didn't hit 1k is because Hue mysteriously completely benched him for a couple games mid-year (Chaz and TJ Housh were seeing more snaps). I like all 3 Oakland WR's. I'd prob rank them 1) Moore, 2) DHB, 3) Ford. I think Moore is already more polished than DHB (which is why I give him the edge). Wouldn't be surprised to see both nearing 1000 yards in 2012. (Could surpass if DMC's dinged again)

Roddy White emerged once Vick left. Sharks pounced on White when that happened. White was on the waiver wire in some leagues. To me Vick's shortcomings as a QB (accuracy and taking off to run) were responsible for holding White back.

Any thoughts on Armon Binns in Cinci? I saw this on CBS's site:Binns a 2012 breakout candidate? Armon Binns, WR CINNews: The Bengals stashed wide receiver Armon Binns on their practice squad in 2011, and there might be a plan to elevate him to the roster full-time in 2012. Though Binns did get elevated for two games last season (he was inactive), head coach Marvin Lewis raved about his potential and said that the coaching staff tried to get him up to the active roster even earlier than when they did. A local product from the University of Cincinnati, Binns caught 75 passes for 1,101 yards and 10 touchdowns for the top-ranked Bearcats in 2010 including six games with at least 100 yards receiving. He had 21 total touchdowns in his last two years at Cincy. Analysis: Binns wasn't drafted by the NFL but has stayed with the Bengals thanks to his big size (6 foot 3) and good ability to jump for deep balls, particularly in the end zone. He doesn't have breakaway speed and some evaluators think his hands aren't consistent. He's one to watch this summer in case he can catch on with the Bengals. Dynasty/keeper league owners could consider him with a late-round flier.- With Simpson a FA it could be anyone that steps into the #2 role in Cincy. Thoughts?

I watched a bunch of Cincy games in 2009 and thought he was a better prospect than Gilyard. I remember his hands being quite good that year. He'll be only 23 when the season starts so he could be one to watch.

 

[Hoosier16]

Super sleeper.....Tandon Doss. I think this is the year we see Anquan Boldin get passed...hes losing it. Tandon Doss takes top possesion reciever duties towards end of the year.

You must not have watched the playoffs. After his knee surgery, Boldin returned for the playoffs and was clearly the #1 WR for Baltimore. Torrey Smith disappeared and Doss might not have seen the field.

 

[VA703]

leonard hankerson

I have him in one dynasty league. How do you see it playing out for Handerson?

this will be his breakout year

 

[fantasymailman]

I think somebody who hasn't been mentioned in this thread much yet, but who could be a nice late-round pick in most fantasy drafts is Golden Tate in Seattle. With Matt Flynn as the new quarterback and a player who fits Pete Carroll's profile of competitive quarterbacks who can throw a catchable ball, Tate could develop into his favorite target and see a nice increase in production. According to PFF, Tate also had the lowest drop rates of all receivers in 2011 which only helps his fantasy value. I don't think Tate will be this year's Victor Cruz, but could very well develop into a player similar to Antonio Brown.

 

[nickdib]

Super sleeper.....Tandon Doss. I think this is the year we see Anquan Boldin get passed...hes losing it. Tandon Doss takes top possesion reciever duties towards end of the year.

You must not have watched the playoffs. After his knee surgery, Boldin returned for the playoffs and was clearly the #1 WR for Baltimore. Torrey Smith disappeared and Doss might not have seen the field.

In the playoffs Torrey Smith took a little screen pass and turned it into a 30 yard touchdown

 

[Sabertooth]

I gotta feeling that Randall Cobb is going to be an Az Hakim type of player this season. He's really good. Better than Jones and Driver already. And his skillset is perfect for the slot.

 

[Shutout]

Leonard Hankerson-He can play and think it will be sooner than later that any misconceptions about Morgan or Garcon being "the man" at Wr will be dispelled. Garcon is great at what he does using his speed. Morgan is probably better overall than Garcon, but Hankerson can be a "nicks" or "AJ" in terms of being utilized all over the field. Not saying that will be his production level, but that he can be a big part of what the team does, regardless of where they are on the field.

Tandon Doss-I hate talking about guys like this because it is SO anti-to what all the lemmings are buying, that it never becomes a productive conversation: instead it just becomes alot of one-liners by people who want to dismiss it outright. But here is a big kid with good hands that runs routes. Joe Flacco personally wanted him on this team. He is on the team, has had a year to learn the system, is over his hernia injury, and Q is getting up there. I don't think he comes out of the box and just "arrives" early in the season, but I think by mid-season, he is a guy that is getting 6-8 targets a week and is actively involved. I think he could take the step this year.

 

[Crazy Tony]

I like

Decker...as a consistent trusted WR for PMann.

GLittle...I'm hoping improves. I drafted him over Cam Newton. I think we want too much too soon.

VBrown...i have rivers and it would be nice if he emerged this year.

D.Avery...still FA in my league I have #2 overall pick and looks like I get LUCK...Avery would be a great addition to the squad.

Steve Smith RAMs... Very quite...dropped in many leagues. 107 catches in 2009. C'mon 2009 numbers.

G'Little arguments:

I think he came around...you gotta be encouraged by that. It used to be 3years for WRs. He wasn't AJ GREEN or JULIO JONES. Browns weren't really lighting it up.

Lloyd took like 7 years to produce.

VJax took 3-4 years to breakout

Stevie Johnson didn't do it his Rookie year. 3rd or 4th

Same for Steve Smith and Manningham.

I'm hot big on DHB for some reason. Something about him dropping balls and screwing up...i just got a bad first impression and not sure if I can change it even if he's the man. I'd rather have Ford or DMoore. 63/975/4 is OK...but

I think BALDWIN has upside.

Jordy Nelson was taken in the 5th round of our Rookie FA draft last year and scored 300pts in our league w/ Bonus tiers and KR pts. I guess he was injured and dropped and overlooked.

So I'd have to say that Mark Clayton will somehow be the # dude. Or Donnie Avery or Steve Smith Rams.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

re: DHB

I wouldn't have much of an informed opinion either way, but my recollection is that he was benched in favor of moore and ford.

I saw someone touting his week 14-17 stats, and I was suspicious, so i took a look......

w14 - 11 targets with both moore and ford out

5/78/0 with oak trying to keep pace with a 46 pt gb explosion -- gb being one of the poorer teams vs pass

w15 - big game on 9 targets vs crummy det def

moore gets 5 targets first game back from injury, ford is out

w16 - 5 targets vs kc 4/70/0

ford still out, moore gets 4/94/1 on 9 targets

w17 - monster game, getting 17 targets trying to catch 38 point sd offense

moore with only 6 targets, but 100 yds, while ford finally returns to field for 4 targets

I don't really think those 4 weeks are conclusive of anything.

then throw in the knapp factor.

edit: palmer threw the ball:

w14 42x

w15 40x

w16 26x

w17 43x

that's a 600 att pace for a full season -- a mark only 3 teams hit last year (no, det, ne)

 

[Hoosier16]

Tate also had the lowest drop rates of all receivers in 2011 which only helps his fantasy value.

I love the site but I don't think that stat has much meaning. If you look at it more closely, you'll see good receivers near the bottom and meaningless ones near the top. Plus, there is a lot of inconsistency from year to year. If you look at 2010, Obomanu is at the top with a similar number of targets. In 2011, he is at the bottom. A better stat on that site is yards per pass route run. It seems to be a much better indicator of the better WRs.

 

[squistion]

I think somebody who hasn't been mentioned in this thread much yet, but who could be a nice late-round pick in most fantasy drafts is Golden Tate in Seattle. With Matt Flynn as the new quarterback and a player who fits Pete Carroll's profile of competitive quarterbacks who can throw a catchable ball, Tate could develop into his favorite target and see a nice increase in production. According to PFF, Tate also had the lowest drop rates of all receivers in 2011 which only helps his fantasy value. I don't think Tate will be this year's Victor Cruz, but could very well develop into a player similar to Antonio Brown.

Tate is off most everyone's radar and is falling in the mid-teen rounds from recent startups I have seen. He hasn't done much yet, but entering his 3rd year he could be a late bloomer. It should be noted that at ND, he was converted from RB to WR, so the learning curve might take a little longer with him. I am not making any 2012 predictions for him either, but he is a definite hold for his current owners and a player I have been targeting to pick up on the cheap.

 

[cstu]

I think somebody who hasn't been mentioned in this thread much yet, but who could be a nice late-round pick in most fantasy drafts is Golden Tate in Seattle. With Matt Flynn as the new quarterback and a player who fits Pete Carroll's profile of competitive quarterbacks who can throw a catchable ball, Tate could develop into his favorite target and see a nice increase in production. According to PFF, Tate also had the lowest drop rates of all receivers in 2011 which only helps his fantasy value. I don't think Tate will be this year's Victor Cruz, but could very well develop into a player similar to Antonio Brown.

Tate is off most everyone's radar and is falling in the mid-teen rounds from recent startups I have seen. He hasn't done much yet, but entering his 3rd year he could be a late bloomer. It should be noted that at ND, he was converted from RB to WR, so the learning curve might take a little longer with him. I am not making any 2012 predictions for him either, but he is a definite hold for his current owners and a player I have been targeting to pick up on the cheap.

Ideally Tate is a slot receiver, but he was beat out by Doug Baldwin. He'll end up playing opposite Rice but he seems destined to be a poor man's Lee Evans.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

According to Pro Football Focus, no NFL player was targeted deeper downfield than Denarius Moore in 2011.

Pro Football Focus charts the depth of each NFL pass target. The result is "average depth of target" or "aDOT" for short. In 2011, Moore's normalized aDOT (removes the impact of the quarterback) was 18.7, which paced the entire NFL.

 

[squistion]

I think somebody who hasn't been mentioned in this thread much yet, but who could be a nice late-round pick in most fantasy drafts is Golden Tate in Seattle. With Matt Flynn as the new quarterback and a player who fits Pete Carroll's profile of competitive quarterbacks who can throw a catchable ball, Tate could develop into his favorite target and see a nice increase in production. According to PFF, Tate also had the lowest drop rates of all receivers in 2011 which only helps his fantasy value. I don't think Tate will be this year's Victor Cruz, but could very well develop into a player similar to Antonio Brown.

Tate is off most everyone's radar and is falling in the mid-teen rounds from recent startups I have seen. He hasn't done much yet, but entering his 3rd year he could be a late bloomer. It should be noted that at ND, he was converted from RB to WR, so the learning curve might take a little longer with him. I am not making any 2012 predictions for him either, but he is a definite hold for his current owners and a player I have been targeting to pick up on the cheap.

Ideally Tate is a slot receiver, but he was beat out by Doug Baldwin. He'll end up playing opposite Rice but he seems destined to be a poor man's Lee Evans.

Could be, but you never know, I remember EBF saying when DMC was considered a bust by some after his second year in the league, that his upside was a "poor man's Jerious Norwood." He was wrong there, maybe you are similarly underestimating Tate. Time will tell, but I see a much higher ceiling than a poor man's Lee Evans and a cheap buy low candidate.

 

[az_prof]

* Darrius Heyward-Bey: You've seen the best he's got. I would be selling him like yesterday's newspaper.

* Jonathan Baldwin: He has great size and was a first round pick. I never give up on first round picks unless they have a devastating injury because they are usually given a lot of opportunities to succeed.

You're not consistent with your reasoningDHB had almost 1,000 yards last year and had a good connection with Palmer to end the year. But you give up on him?

Thank you! I love when people look at the structure of the argument instead of just offering opinions. I see your point, and so I should qualify. I could be wrong about DHB, and i certainly wouldn't dump him. He is HOLD. but I wouldn't want to count on him to improve dramatically either. The difference is that he is entering his FOURTH year. Baldwin is entering his SECOND.

While I wouldn't give up on DHB because he IS an elite pick and he does have physical talent and opportunity, I have watched him play enough to believe that he won't improve in his fourth season. I think we have seen his ceiling.

Baldwin's ceiling is yet to be determined. And there is much more room for him to rise after his rookie season.

Note to self for future reference: When az_prof says "sell like yesterday's newspaper" he really means "hold".

I am open to be persuaded. After seeing some more information, I realized that he is a hold. I still don't consider him likely to do much better than he did last year. Most FF make the mistake of assuming either that last year's production (if elite) will continue forever, or that if there was improvement last year it is sure to continue to improve at the same rate. Palmer is not an elite QB

There are other equally good receivers in Oakland so I don't see DHB demanding the lion's share of looks like White did in Atlanta (crazy comparison). And DHB has had enough time and opportunity to develop. While sometimes a player who doesn't get an opportunity early on (like Cruz or Austin) will break out later, the longer the guy is in the league the less likely it is. That's a fact.

Since you didn't comment on my post before I will rephrase.Is DHB young? Check, he's 25

Good size? Check, 6'2 210

Athletic? Check, 40=4.25, vert=38.5, 3 cone=6.8, broad jump=10'6

Productive? Check, last year= 64 receptions 975 yards 4 TD on 111 targets

Produced with 3 different QB's last year? Check

QB Jason Campbell/Kyle Boller Weeks 3-6

4 for 115 0 TD

7 for 99 1 TD

6 for 82 0 TD

5 for 89 0 TD

QB Carson Palmer Weeks 14-17

5 for 78 0 TD

8 for 155 1 TD

4 for 70 0 TD

9 for 130 1 TD

What is he lacking?

The question is: has he peaked? Is this his ceiling? I believe it is. You assume he will continue to improve. I am basing my judgement on years of watching him play, as I am in the Oakland viewing area. Others disagree with me. Fine. He has had many opportunities to succeed and I just don't see him doing better than he did. If Peyton had gone to Oakland then I could see it. But Palmer is nothing special at this point in his career.

 

[cstu]

The question is: has he peaked? Is this his ceiling? I believe it is. You assume he will continue to improve. I am basing my judgement on years of watching him play, as I am in the Oakland viewing area. Others disagree with me. Fine. He has had many opportunities to succeed and I just don't see him doing better than he did. If Peyton had gone to Oakland then I could see it. But Palmer is nothing special at this point in his career.

While would this be his ceiling? He's only 25 and has improved dramatically every year. Why would the Raiders pay him $5.3M this year, despite being able to take no cap hit if they were to cut him, if they think he's maxed his potential? I'm not convinced he'll have a season much better than last year's but I do think the sky's the limit for him. He'll be a 27yo UFA in 2 years and could go to a great situation.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Why would the Raiders pay him $5.3M this year, despite being able to take no cap hit if they were to cut him, if they think he's maxed his potential?

lol how much did they pay javon walker?

 

[ChainsawU]

Jordan Shipley, especially in PPR.

Bengals WR Jordan Shipley (torn ACL) is expected to be ready for training camp.Shipley still doesn't have a firm return date, but has been targeting May for a return to football activities. He will be a year removed from tearing his ACL in September. The Cincinnati Enquirer expects Shipley to be the Bengals' slot receiver in 2012. Feb 11 - 11:34 AM

 

[cstu]

Why would the Raiders pay him $5.3M this year, despite being able to take no cap hit if they were to cut him, if they think he's maxed his potential?

lol how much did they pay javon walker?

They stupidly gave him a $16M guaranteed contract and cut him the first chance they got after two years. I don't see how that is comparable to this.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

re: DHBI wouldn't have much of an informed opinion either way, but my recollection is that he was benched in favor of moore and ford.I saw someone touting his week 14-17 stats, and I was suspicious, so i took a look......w14 - 11 targets with both moore and ford out5/78/0 with oak trying to keep pace with a 46 pt gb explosion -- gb being one of the poorer teams vs passw15 - big game on 9 targets vs crummy det defmoore gets 5 targets first game back from injury, ford is outw16 - 5 targets vs kc 4/70/0ford still out, moore gets 4/94/1 on 9 targetsw17 - monster game, getting 17 targets trying to catch 38 point sd offensemoore with only 6 targets, but 100 yds, while ford finally returns to field for 4 targetsI don't really think those 4 weeks are conclusive of anything.then throw in the knapp factor.edit: palmer threw the ball:w14 42xw15 40xw16 26xw17 43xthat's a 600 att pace for a full season -- a mark only 3 teams hit last year (no, det, ne)

I appreciate some stats backing up a reply. A follow-up question. Why do people think Jacoby Ford will succeed? He has 3 career games over 100 yards, but every other game is below 50 yards. 2 career games of 5 receptions or more. If anything Jacoby Ford and Denarius Moore play the same position...Deep Threat. Moore was targeted deep more than any other WR and almost all of Fords big plays are deep passes as well. They're both small than DHB by 2 inches as well.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

* Darrius Heyward-Bey: You've seen the best he's got. I would be selling him like yesterday's newspaper.

* Jonathan Baldwin: He has great size and was a first round pick. I never give up on first round picks unless they have a devastating injury because they are usually given a lot of opportunities to succeed.

You're not consistent with your reasoningDHB had almost 1,000 yards last year and had a good connection with Palmer to end the year. But you give up on him?

Thank you! I love when people look at the structure of the argument instead of just offering opinions. I see your point, and so I should qualify. I could be wrong about DHB, and i certainly wouldn't dump him. He is HOLD. but I wouldn't want to count on him to improve dramatically either. The difference is that he is entering his FOURTH year. Baldwin is entering his SECOND.

While I wouldn't give up on DHB because he IS an elite pick and he does have physical talent and opportunity, I have watched him play enough to believe that he won't improve in his fourth season. I think we have seen his ceiling.

Baldwin's ceiling is yet to be determined. And there is much more room for him to rise after his rookie season.

Note to self for future reference: When az_prof says "sell like yesterday's newspaper" he really means "hold".

I am open to be persuaded. After seeing some more information, I realized that he is a hold. I still don't consider him likely to do much better than he did last year. Most FF make the mistake of assuming either that last year's production (if elite) will continue forever, or that if there was improvement last year it is sure to continue to improve at the same rate. Palmer is not an elite QB

There are other equally good receivers in Oakland so I don't see DHB demanding the lion's share of looks like White did in Atlanta (crazy comparison). And DHB has had enough time and opportunity to develop. While sometimes a player who doesn't get an opportunity early on (like Cruz or Austin) will break out later, the longer the guy is in the league the less likely it is. That's a fact.

Since you didn't comment on my post before I will rephrase.Is DHB young? Check, he's 25

Good size? Check, 6'2 210

Athletic? Check, 40=4.25, vert=38.5, 3 cone=6.8, broad jump=10'6

Productive? Check, last year= 64 receptions 975 yards 4 TD on 111 targets

Produced with 3 different QB's last year? Check

QB Jason Campbell/Kyle Boller Weeks 3-6

4 for 115 0 TD

7 for 99 1 TD

6 for 82 0 TD

5 for 89 0 TD

QB Carson Palmer Weeks 14-17

5 for 78 0 TD

8 for 155 1 TD

4 for 70 0 TD

9 for 130 1 TD

What is he lacking?

The question is: has he peaked? Is this his ceiling? I believe it is. You assume he will continue to improve. I am basing my judgement on years of watching him play, as I am in the Oakland viewing area. Others disagree with me. Fine. He has had many opportunities to succeed and I just don't see him doing better than he did. If Peyton had gone to Oakland then I could see it. But Palmer is nothing special at this point in his career.

You've failed to acknowledge the progress he made last season. Why would he stop progressing? Lets play the game that Carson Palmer is nothing special. He's better than Jason Campbell/Boller. He jumped into the Oakland system mid-year and that hurt all of Oaklands WRs, which hurt DHB in that 8 game stretch in the middle of the season. DHB still finished 28th in PPR, ahead of Tampa Mike, Boldin, Holmes, Torrey Smith, Maclin, Desean Jackson...yet he gets little love.

I traded Randall Cobb and a late 3rd rookie pick for DHB and Juron Criner...I think I got a steal.

 

[cstu]

I also like Jeremy Kerley as a football player. He's only 5'9" with 4.6 speed, so he might not have a huge FF ceiling, but he made a big impact as a rookie and is a natural football player.

Jeremy Kerley making case for No. 2Published Tue Apr 24 8:27:11 p.m. PT 2012(TheHuddle) New York Jets WR Jeremy Kerley (back) wants to win the No. 2 wide receiver job in offensive coordinator Tony Sparano's offense, and he feels he is in the mix. 'I feel like I'm in the running, whether I get it or not that'll be up to the coaches,' Kerley said. 'I'm not too worried about it, I hope I get it, who wouldn't want to be the No. 2 receiver? But No. 3 is alright too. No. 3 catches the ball just as much.' Kerley said he is recovered from a back issue which caused him to miss offseason workouts in Florida with QB Mark Sanchez and WR Santonio Holmes.Analysis: A fifth-round pick from TCU last year, Kerley not only made the roster but turned heads in limited opportunities. He's much faster than his 4.56 combine time and can run the Wildcat and return punts. You'll hear Kerley's name again.

About the speed, he's not fast but he's very quick and tough to cover.

 

[footballnerd]

Count me in as someone who doesn't understand the level of skepticism around DHB. Yes, he was drafted too high, but he's done pretty much everything you'd want since then -- he's gotten better each year and took a huge step between years 2 & 3. He certainly still has things to learn but he's taken big strides. Carson Palmer may not be an elite QB but he's almost always produced a WR1 or WR2 (at worst) for fantasy purposes. It remains to be seen whether he'll ultimately favor Moore or DHB but there may be enough to go around, especially as the Raiders don't have a true pass-catching threat at TE right now. Bottom line: I wouldn't reach for DHB, but he seems so undervalued at this point that you can likely get him at a point where he'll have almost nothing but upside.

Carson Palmers downfall is his picks, but he gets great yards and decent TDs. Fortunately WRs benifit from the latter, so I don't think the QB is the problem. Depending how they address that awful secondary they could be throwing a lot this year. I'm assuming that DHB would be one of the top 2 OAK WRs off the board, not sure which round yet, but I think the 3rd OAK WR off the board (Ford) would have the best value with just about equal upside. More than likely there won't be a consistently dominating Raiders WR each week if everyone is healthy. Those doubting the value of Ford as a low pick should keep in mind this kid is only in his third year and missed half of last year to injuries.