ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
FYI analytics (or at least the 4th Down Bot) strongly favored kicking the FG
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Analytics, schmanalytics! (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ComfortablyNumb
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IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Yeah, I was kind of puzzled to see people criticizing Staley for this particular decision. Obviously Staley did a poor job last night, considering [gestures vaguely] all of this, but kicking the FG here was a totally fine call.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Speaking of FGs, that game winner was hugging the goalposts.
Jayded
Footballguy
So I think it’s funny to see collective analytic blaming when decisions get made.
Analytics will tell you what has happened in similar scenarios. If someone thinks it’s outright prescriptive, that’s on them. If 80% of the time a situation has happened, that’s factual. If the other alternative is 50%, that doesn’t mean the 80% option is guaranteed and/or factors at hand maintain a 30% gap let alone things we can’t quantify (ex. Momentum)
Analytics will tell you what has happened in similar scenarios. If someone thinks it’s outright prescriptive, that’s on them. If 80% of the time a situation has happened, that’s factual. If the other alternative is 50%, that doesn’t mean the 80% option is guaranteed and/or factors at hand maintain a 30% gap let alone things we can’t quantify (ex. Momentum)
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
With a perfect snap and hold. The Charger kicker makes that 18 out of 20 times. Odds were heavily in favor of a made FG.
It was a perfect snap and hold and he missed.
Watch the last Jax TD. Right OT got away with a false start. But Chargers had an incomplete pass ruled a reception earlier.
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ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
I don’t know for sure that the numbers favored Jax going for two there, but assuming they did, it would be a good example of how to gain an edge using analytics: to overcome cognitive biases.
Most often, the bias we see is loss aversion, but last night, it was the bias that creeps in when a team is trailing by a “round” number (3, 7, 10, etc). The goal becomes getting the game back to a tie score, even though that only gives you a 50% chance of winning (maybe a tick higher in Jacksonville’s case since they were at home).
But at the point where the 2PC became much easier due to the penalty, Pederson correctly recognized that the Jags had a chance to win the game outright, so he took it. The fact that everything worked out perfectly doesn’t prove he was right, but it does show why you make decisions like that
Most often, the bias we see is loss aversion, but last night, it was the bias that creeps in when a team is trailing by a “round” number (3, 7, 10, etc). The goal becomes getting the game back to a tie score, even though that only gives you a 50% chance of winning (maybe a tick higher in Jacksonville’s case since they were at home).
But at the point where the 2PC became much easier due to the penalty, Pederson correctly recognized that the Jags had a chance to win the game outright, so he took it. The fact that everything worked out perfectly doesn’t prove he was right, but it does show why you make decisions like that
Chaka
Footballguy
SAN DIMAS HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL RULES!!!
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Which is why analytics shamnalaytics.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Apparently not since they lost
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
They did when I checked last night. It's like a 29% WP vs. 24% WP if you go for one. In fact, I saw a great Twitter clip from the NFL Network in 2018 about Pederson and going for two and his unconventional style whereby he was using raw math and probability to draw conclusions about what to do. I'll see if I can't find it.
I can't find it, but he's done it before using math.
Doug Pederson does it again: Why two-point decision was easy call
Yes, the Eagles lost, but the coach's unconventional decision to go for two while down by eight points late in the game was a bold and correct call.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
No guarantee an XP is made.
Obviously you kick.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I wanted them to go for it.
There was a mojo going in the context of that game that demanded going for it & burning a little clock - getting the TD.
The FG felt like a surrender.
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