At this point in the season I'm sitting in second place, 31 points off the lead. I thought I'd go back through and see how my draft went and why things are the way they are. Examining things pick by pick, there are three themes that pop out:
* Limit zeroes (I have just one, Curtis Martin)
* Get decent value on most picks (only missed on 3 or 4)
* Draft Ladanian Tomlinson
Other than Tomlinson, I don't have any other picks which are supremely outperforming their draft position (unless you count the Raiders D), but almost all of my picks are producing decent points, and a few are performing well. I did well to avoid chasing low-value RBs with my second and third picks (getting Boldin and Driver instead). But mostly the team is sitting there chugging away with decent but not spectacular numbers, except for Tomlinson, whose run has pushed me to the top of the league. I still am sitting on just one zero, and a number of players, including Tomlinson, have playoff prospects, so I definitely still have a shot.
1.02: Ladanian Tomlinson
For me, it's a choice between Tomlinson and Alexander. It's nice to get a proven stud (and much nicer to be drafting at 1.02 than 1.15, which I had last year), although I'm sure that at least one and probably two of the Big Three will not live up to expectations. I'm thinking that Tomlinson is marginally more likely to live up to expectations than Alexander, because his production is not as TD-based. It's a tough decision, though. I don't have the top TEs and WRs differentiated enough to be worth considering here; if there were a clear #1, I might look at him.
Looking back, I think this was the right pick.
I probably would have taken Tomlinson even at 1.01. In any case, he's clearly been driving my team so far. He's also my best shot for playoff production. Season-changer, choosing Tomlinson over Alexander.
2.15: Anquan Boldin
I had Domanick Davis in my pre-draft queue, but he went a pick before me; I was kind of glad. I also was interested in Randy Moss who went two picks earlier, for boom or bust potential. I debated between Boldin, Chambers, Driver, and Droughns here; in this format, I think a solid WR is worth significantly more than a marginal RB, and with 1 PPR for WRs, I liked Boldin, with two 100-catch seasons to his name, over Chambers or Driver. There is some risk that targets shift to Fitzgerald and James in Arizona, but I like Boldin's chances.
Boldin is currently the #16 WR, so is marginally underperforming where I took him (WR#9). But he's doing a lot better than Chambers or Droughns, and I wound up getting Driver anyway. I think he's likely to perform better than WR#16 for the rest of the regular season, though obviously Arizona has no playoff hopes. Decent pick.
3.02: Donald Driver
I actually had Driver rated above both Droughns and Chambers, who were grabbed by Yellow Dog, so I was very glad to get him at 3.02. With no other proven receiving option in Green Bay, Driver should get plenty of targets and should easily finish in the top 12 WRs; he's WR#11 off the board. The only other player I seriously considered was Darrell Jackson.
One thing worth noting about this pick is that it demonstrates the power of picking high in the first round. With Tomlinson anchoring my RB corps, I have no need to chase diminishing returns at RB; the RBs left on the board are guys like Reggie Bush, Warrick Dunn, and Jamal Lewis, none of whom I consider competitive with the WRs available. Driver outscored Dunn by over 50 points last year in this format, and Lewis by 100. In an all-starters league, it's all about maximizing value at every pick.
Taken as WR#11, performing as WR#11. Bush, Dunn, and Lewis are nowhere to be seen (Driver is outperforming the best of them, Dunn, by over 50 points). Very slim playoff hopes, but a good pick. Reggie Wayne would have been better.
4.15: Dominic Rhodes
A lot of marginal TEs have flown off the board; we already have 10 taken! TE#10 did score 208 points in this format, but that's still less than WR#21, which is where we are in the WR list. I really was hoping Mason would fall to me, but rzrback snagged him two picks earlier. RBs remaining are not expected to score anywhere near as much as WRs or TEs, but I'm also looking at DVBD, which is predicting a bigger drop-off in RBs than WRs and TEs at this point. Rhodes looks to me like the only RB left on the board who has a good chance to finish in the top-10; if he gets even 80% of the touches Edge got in 2005, he should do it. There is risk here (Addai), but that's true of any of the situations from here on out, especially considering how early in the season we're drafting. I am willing to take risks in this format, since it's all-or-nothing. (My favorite crossword puzzle clue: "Came in second", four letters, beginning with L).
Rhodes was drafted as RB#29 and is performing as RB#33, 8 points behind #29. He'll probably get up to #29 on playoff scoring. Decent pick. Javon Walker or Fred Taylor would have been better.
5.02: Joe Horn
I'm looking here at value and upside. Last year the two biggest difference-makers in this format were Joey Galloway and Steve Smith. Joe Horn is just one year removed from a #3WR finish, and like Galloway last year, may be flying under the radar due to last year's injuries and the general malaise of the team. Horn is younger than Galloway; I think he has a very solid chance to finish in the top 10, and here he's the #22 WR off the board. Other options are Galloway, Coles, and Lee Evans, none of whom seem to compare to Horn's potential in 2006.
I picked Horn as WR#22, and he's currently sitting at WR#29 after missing two games. With Colston slowed or out, Horn is likely to produce decent numbers. He's also very likely to be in the playoffs. Decent pick. Houshmandzadeh, Lee Evans, and Kellen Winslow were still on the board.
6.15: Curtis Martin
According to my projections, Curtis Martin has been the strongest pick by DVBD for over two rounds now. However, as I said in the Player Spotlight on Martin, I don't really believe my own projections, which is why I let him fall this much. But as far as I can see, he's the only RB left (other than Barlow) who is even nominally the starter, and thus represents value, even if he doesn't reach my projections. If I can get 12 starts out of him, I'll come out ahead. Note: This pick was made before the FBG reports of weirdness with Martin in NYJ training camp.
Bust. It happens. The best realistic replacement would have been Marion Barber, but more likely I would have wound up with someone like Gado or Mewelde Moore, who haven't done much anyway. Bad pick, still.
7.02: Miami QB (Culpepper/Harrington)
It remains to be seen how well Culpepper will perform coming back from his injury onto a brand new team, but with team QBs and a very good receiving corps in Chambers, Booker, and McMichael, I think this unit is a total steal at QB13. The team QB is definitely more valuable than Culpepper as a single player, since I don't need to worry so much about his rehab; Harrington should be a servicable fill-in if necessary. No one else was close on my list.
The unit did not turn out to be a steal as QB#13, although it's performing better recently. The real winner here would have been New Orleans, but I doubt many would have seriously considered them at this point (they lasted to 8.05). Poor pick.
8.15: Isaac Bruce
Bruce is another guy I think people are sleeping on; are there really 126 players better than him in this format? Including Samie Parker, Joe Jurevicius, Antonio Bryant and Keyshawn Johnson? He's the #44 WR off the board; he finished in the top 20 five years in a row prior to last year's injury-plagued season. Like Joe Horn, he is younger than Joey Galloway, and in a better offense. Other WRs left are Burleson, Toomer, Porter, Mark Clayton; I'm not impressed with that lot. TEs are still being over-bought; TE#18 just went off the board; several of the TEs just chosen may not even be the #1 TE on their own team. There are no starters left at RB.
Money in the bank: Bruce is WR#30, outproducing WR#44 by 23 points. The loss of Pace has hurt the St. Louis offense, but they still have playoff prospects and talent. There are no WRs taken in the next two rounds which have come near Bruce's production. Good pick.
9.02: Houston QB (Carr)
Carr as QB#23 off the board looks like a steal to me. This unit finished as #27 last year, just 15 points below #23, and that was with A.Johnson hurt and before Moulds was added. The new coaching staff is also very likely to be a positive for Carr. I expect him to finish in the top-20, and he could even get up around #10 if things go well. Also note, Carr himself finished in the top 20 each of the past two years, although partly that is because he's been very healthy, despite taking a beating in the backfield.
Inversion of my other Team QB: Houston is performing as QB#13, 35 points ahead of QB#23. Chargers QB would have been even better, but this is still an excellent pick.
10.15: Pittsburgh D
I had the Pitt D as #1, so I'm glad to get it as the #3 D off the board. It's not likely to provide huge value here, but I'm pretty satisfied with the core of my team, and the WR and RB pickings are getting pretty slim. I don't see any need to jump on a TE yet, either; defenses have risen to the top in VBD and DVBD.
Performing as D#14; not so good. Ravens D would have been a lot better (D#2). Poor pick.
11.02: Cedrick Wilson
We're definitely in "your guess is as good as mine" territory here. I like Wilson as someone who's very solidly a WR2 on a team with a decent passing game that should be used more often this year with Bettis retiring. Other possibilities are Reche Caldwell, Randle El, Reggie Williams, none of whom have situations as good as Wilson's. He played well at the end of last year.
He's managed to come in as WR#63 so far. He was drafted as WR#61. Precision drafting! Fliers that would have worked out better were Caldwell and Jennings, but this was a decent pick.
12.15: Courtney Anderson
Finally I get a TE! TE value has been creeping up, as only two have been taken in the past 50 picks, and Anderson seems overlooked to me here as TE#24. He finished in a virtual tie for TE#24 last year in his rookie season, and the Raiders seem like they might want to use him more with Shell at the helm. Some TE had at least 33 receptions each year Shell coached the Raiders in his first stint, and Ethan Horton finished as #2 overall in 1991. I'm glad to fill my roster with a solid starter. Also, Yellow Dog still doesn't have a TE, so I'm grabbing a TE before he tries to get one at the turn.
He's actually performing as TE#26, so another par value pick. Decent. The winner would have been Desmond Clark.
13.02: Najeh Davenport
I still need at least one RB, and Davenport is the only guy left on the board who plausibly could win the starting job in training camp, even without an injury. (Some might argue Maurice Drew, but I almost always let someone else try to shoot for the sleeper rookie RB; they are a lot more rare than people expect). I expect everything resembling RB value to be gone by the time I get another chance to pick, so I'm filling out my roster.
Despite switching teams and missing the first three games of the season, Davenport has produced as RB#57, so this turned out to be a value pick (and could even be better, given his somewhat increased role in the offense). Still, there were several other picks to make here, Maurice Jones-Drew, Mike Bell, Michael Turner, who would have worked out better. Decent pick.
14.15: Eric Johnson
Johnson already has two top-15 seasons to his credit; he's slipped this far due to the prospect of Vernon Davis taking over the pass-catching TE role. But I think it's likely that Johnson will perform well in training camp and fight the rookie for touches all year. The SF passing game isn't a huge pie to slice up, but it's not like there are real WRs to throw to, anyway (Bryant notwithstanding). I'm hoping for 30 catches and 3 TDs.
Big value here, as Johnson has performed as TE#17, the best of all the remaining TEs taken. He already has 29 catches, although only 1 TD. Good pick.
15.02: Ryan Longwell
I didn't have good net access, and did some pre-drafting with 20+ picks to go before my selection. I was anticipating a kicker run and hoping to get Longwell on the end of it. My timing was a bit off, as this was only K#9 off the board, and seven more went in the next 17 picks. Longwell could easily wind up as K#9 or better (he's an extremely accurate kicker, just moved to a dome), but with the uncertainty in the Minnesota offense, if I were actively following the draft I probably would have passed on Longwell and hoped he came back to me at 16.15 (which he probably wouldn't have, given how it went, but still). I also considered Arnaz Battle, but it's against my religion to own two players from last year's #32 offense. At least I wound up with a token Golden Bear.
Longwell started out well but has declined with Minnesota's offense; this pick was slightly below par, but not bad overall. Stover would have been better, but only 6 points different. Decent pick.
16.15: Daniel Graham
Another case of "what have you done for me lately?" Graham was the #9 TE in 2004, and in this format was #31 in 2005 despite missing 5 games. As TE#29, he's a great prospect here; New England spreads the ball around, but even if he only repeats his 2003 (38 receptions, 4 TD) he should significantly out-perform anyone left for my flex spot. Other players I was considering were Andre Davis and Rod Gardner, but I like the TE performance possibility better. Plus Yellowdog still has no TEs, so I know he's planning to take at least one on the turn.
He's performed as TE#33; he will probably get back above TE#29 now that he's back in the lineup. Good pick, better than the alternatives.
17.02: Mike Nugent
I'm not a huge fan of Nugent, but he's the most solidly entrenched in his job of all the kickers left; he should put up at least acceptable numbers, and could be decent if it turns out Pennington's return revives the Jets offense.
He's K#30, which is a little below par value. Best pick would have been Mare, K#11. Poor pick, but at least it's not a zero.
18.15: Raiders Defense
Whatever. It's a defense, the last one on the board. It even has a Cal connection (Nnamdi Asomugah).
The Raiders D is outperforming D#32 by over 50 points; that's some serious value as the next to last pick in the draft. Good pick, not that I had any choice.