Andre Johnson, WR, Houston Texans (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Andre Johnson, WR, Houston Texans

Player Page Link: Andre Johnson Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[FF Ninja]

As a Houstonian, I love watching Andre Johnson. The guy is just amazing. He started off his career with David Carr which hurt him tremendously and it seems like he never gets quite as much respect as Fitz or Calvin. He gets knocked for not scoring a lot of TDs, but Houston just hasn't thrown many touchdowns. In 2009, Schaub threw 29 and AJ snagged 9 of them. In 2007, he caught 8 TDs in 9 games from a combo of Schaub and Rosenfels (in all of 2007, only 24 TDs were thrown). So even though he has only played in 54 of 64 games from 2007 to 2010, he scored 34% of the receiving TDs. If you take his TD/16 game average there, you get 9.8 TD.

Over that span he averaged 10.4 targets per game. I would think now that we've got such a solid ground game going that this number would drop, but in his first three games this year, he saw 11, 9, and 12 targets and was never fully healthy again until the playoffs in which he saw 9 and 15 targets. So I don't expect to see a significant dip in targets in 2012, especially since the Texans' starters remain the same. Jacoby Jones is gone. MSW is currently on the team. Other than that, the new competition has 0 NFL receptions.

I see no reason to think a healthy Andre Johnson does not regain his 2010 form (or 2011 before injury/after healed - 5 games, 517 yds, 3 TD). He looks like a solid bet for 100 receptions and 1500 yards with 8-10 TDs if he plays 16 games.

165 targets, 100 receptions x 15 ypr = 1500 yds 10 TD

 

[butcher boy]

Andre Johnson is a great wide receiver on a run-first team that also has a dominant defense.

I'm trimming my expectaions of this guy.

80/1215 8 TDs

 

[mphtrilogy]

I love AJ, but he perpetually does not come thru with an entire season and is a deathwatch week to weak on the I Report.....

he still is the primary option and still requires a strong look each rd.. but I am inclined to finally get him out of the top 10, and maybe out of the top 15...

1100 yards

6 tds

77 catches

 

[Sweet Love]

I love AJ, but he perpetually does not come thru with an entire season and is a deathwatch week to weak on the I Report.....he still is the primary option and still requires a strong look each rd.. but I am inclined to finally get him out of the top 10, and maybe out of the top 15...1100 yards6 tds77 catches

I agree...first projecting a guy in season #10, for a guy who has never had double-digit TDs to have 10+ TDs, is just wrong. Shocking to me to see he has played nine seasons, and even more shocking when I realize he never had 10 TDs in an individual season. I like him, and IF healthy think he will be good, but I am tempering my expectations to the following:85-1235-7 TDs - and this is based on a full season...adjust as you feel necessary based on games played, and I will not take offense.

 

[David Yudkin]

Hampered with injuries the past two seasons, Johnson saw his per game numbers dip a little to 6-85-0.5 per game. I think he will come in around that on a per game basis, but at this point I would only slot him for 14 games played. 80-1175-7

 

[Benchwarmers]

85 catches

1400 yards

9 TD's

Should again be a top WR this year. I am not concerned about injury.

I see him falling into the late 2nd and 3rd rounds. Good pick there.

 

[David Yudkin]

Should again be a top WR this year. I am not concerned about injury.

Given that AJ just had knee surgery again a few weeks ago (albeit minor), maybe you should. IIRC, he's heading into his 10th season and is 31. He's missed time in 4 seasons. I think it's a valid concern.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

What killed AJ owners last year wasn’t his injury so much as it was the increasing length of his absence. Originally owners clung to optimistic 3-4 week timetables. When he wound up missing close to two months and the extra month wasn’t completely revealed until the first months absence was complete…most owners were too tardy in their contingency plans to accommodate the gap he posed in their line-ups.

It didn’t seem so long ago that the Houston offense ran directly through Schaub/AJ. In 2009, Matt Schaub had 583 pass attempts; 2010, it was 574. So to see a Houston Texans offense only put the ball up 467 times in 2011 was quite surprising indeed. Let’s not just blame Matt Schaub’s abbreviated season for this. Schaub was on pace to only have 519 attempts himself. So while I anticipate the Texans to eclipse the 500 mark again here, is the 2011 version of the HOU passing game going to involve 50-60 fewer passing attempts than when Schaub/AJ were considered one of the most feared QB/WR duos in the NFL?

The Houston offense may be a bit squirrelly to predict in 2012. At no time during the 2011 season were Schaub, Foster and Johnson ever healthy at the same time. So, you could blame the lower output of passing attempts on that. Could HOU go back to putting the ball up 575+ times per season? It’s possible, but they have a defense now. They have the best RB tandem in the NFL not to mention, probably the best RB in Foster. And quite frankly, in a weak division that will include 2 rebuilding outfits and another with a budding QB controversy, the need to air it out seems negligible. For who the Texans are, or more importantly, now want to be…525 attempts would seem to be their output ceiling.

So as this relates to AJ, the things he’s got going against him are:

1. Decreased emphasis on the passing game overall potentially.

2. Hamstring issues

3. He’s missed 12 games the last two seasons

4. He’ll be 31 this season

What he does have going for him is that the Texans have inexplicably never found compliments to him in the passing game so he is still unquestionably THE guy. His target pace after 3 games was 171. He generates 10-11 targets/game and so long as he’s on the field and healthy, will be the driving force behind the HOU passing attack. But how much you can count on Johnson to play 16 games is diminishing and with a player as important to HOU as Johnson still is, if he does incur any injuries, HOU has proven to be overly cautious with him when re-inserting him back to the line-up. Johnson is a high-risk/high-reward player. But the risk might now finally outweigh the reward.

Prediction: 13 games – 77 Receptions; 1047 Receiving Yards; 7 TD’s.

 

[FF Ninja]

Hampered with injuries the past two seasons, Johnson saw his per game numbers dip a little to 6-85-0.5 per game. I think he will come in around that on a per game basis, but at this point I would only slot him for 14 games played. 80-1175-7

That is kind of bastardizing stats because he only played 3 full regular season games in 2011, so you are bogging down a 20 game average with 20% of them being inaccurate duds (3-44-0). Four of those games he was on a snap count. If you remove those four games and count the playoffs where he was healthy, then you have 13 2010 games and 5 2011 games in which he put up 120 rec, 1733 yds, and 11 TD which is 6.67-96.3-0.61, or a 16g equivalent of 107-1540-10

 

[Chase Stuart]

Hampered with injuries the past two seasons, Johnson saw his per game numbers dip a little to 6-85-0.5 per game. I think he will come in around that on a per game basis, but at this point I would only slot him for 14 games played. 80-1175-7

That is kind of bastardizing stats because he only played 3 full regular season games in 2011, so you are bogging down a 20 game average with 20% of them being inaccurate duds (3-44-0). Four of those games he was on a snap count. If you remove those four games and count the playoffs where he was healthy, then you have 13 2010 games and 5 2011 games in which he put up 120 rec, 1733 yds, and 11 TD which is 6.67-96.3-0.61, or a 16g equivalent of 107-1540-10

Although I'd argue that Johnson played 4 or 5 regular season games in 2011, the point remains. In the first three games last year Johnson put up 7-95, 7-93 and 7-128; in the last two, he did 5-90 and 8-111.

David's right that if he's not 100% by the start of the season, that's a legit concern. But all reports indicate he will be, and this guy is an uber stud if he's healthy. I don't think Johnson's more likely to get hurt than other elite WRs, and he's a top-5 fantasy and NFL WR when healthy.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

4. He’ll be 31 this season

Is this now considered old for a WR?

 

[Mr.Underhill]

What killed AJ owners last year wasn’t his injury so much as it was the increasing length of his absence. Originally owners clung to optimistic 3-4 week timetables. When he wound up missing close to two months and the extra month wasn’t completely revealed until the first months absence was complete…most owners were too tardy in their contingency plans to accommodate the gap he posed in their line-ups.

It didn’t seem so long ago that the Houston offense ran directly through Schaub/AJ. In 2009, Matt Schaub had 583 pass attempts; 2010, it was 574. So to see a Houston Texans offense only put the ball up 467 times in 2011 was quite surprising indeed. Let’s not just blame Matt Schaub’s abbreviated season for this. Schaub was on pace to only have 519 attempts himself. So while I anticipate the Texans to eclipse the 500 mark again here, is the 2011 version of the HOU passing game going to involve 50-60 fewer passing attempts than when Schaub/AJ were considered one of the most feared QB/WR duos in the NFL?

The Houston offense may be a bit squirrelly to predict in 2012. At no time during the 2011 season were Schaub, Foster and Johnson ever healthy at the same time. So, you could blame the lower output of passing attempts on that. Could HOU go back to putting the ball up 575+ times per season? It’s possible, but they have a defense now. They have the best RB tandem in the NFL not to mention, probably the best RB in Foster. And quite frankly, in a weak division that will include 2 rebuilding outfits and another with a budding QB controversy, the need to air it out seems negligible. For who the Texans are, or more importantly, now want to be…525 attempts would seem to be their output ceiling.

So as this relates to AJ, the things he’s got going against him are:

1. Decreased emphasis on the passing game overall potentially.

2. Hamstring issues

3. He’s missed 12 games the last two seasons

4. He’ll be 31 this season

What he does have going for him is that the Texans have inexplicably never found compliments to him in the passing game so he is still unquestionably THE guy. His target pace after 3 games was 171. He generates 10-11 targets/game and so long as he’s on the field and healthy, will be the driving force behind the HOU passing attack. But how much you can count on Johnson to play 16 games is diminishing and with a player as important to HOU as Johnson still is, if he does incur any injuries, HOU has proven to be overly cautious with him when re-inserting him back to the line-up. Johnson is a high-risk/high-reward player. But the risk might now finally outweigh the reward.

Prediction: 13 games – 77 Receptions; 1047 Receiving Yards; 7 TD’s.

You all need to take a step back from the edge.Schaub only played 3 full games with AJ last year, week 1 against the Colts, week 2 against the Dolphins and week 3 against the Saints. Schaub played in 10 games. Does anyone think last year's numbers may have been skewed down BECAUSE Andre was not there and the running game was able to pick up that slack?

So, does that mean that the presence of a running game when AJ is healthy results in poor production for AJ? Not hardly.

In week 1 last year, the Texans were up 17-0 on the Dolphins at the end of the first quarter and up 34-0 at the end of the first half. Indy didn't score but once and not until the fourth quarter. What was AJ's line from this early lead blow-out? 7-95-1 on 11 targets. Schaub had 24 attempts.

In week 2, the Texans were up 16-3 at halftime. The Dolphins scored 10 unanswered points in the 3rd and 4th. The Texans then score the go ahead TD, with a pass to AJ. AJ's stat line? 7-93-1 on 9 targets. Schaub had 29 attempts.

In week 3, The Texans went up 10-0 on the Saints by the end of the first but were only up 16-10 at halftime. A much closer game. They ended up losing 33-40. AJ's stat line? 7-128-0 on 12 targets. Schaub had 39 attempts this game.

In week 4, against the Steelers, Houston was up 10-0 on the Steelers at halftime. The Steelers score 10 unanswered to tie it in the fourth. Foster scores on a 42 yard run. AJ is hurt in this game after going 4-36-0 on 5 targets. Schaub had 21 attempts this game.

Now, let me be clear, it's dangerous to extrapolate from a 3 game sample size. But it's no more dangerous than extrapolating from a season's worth of pass attempts when your dominant WR is only healthy in 3 of them on the implied assumption that his absence DIDN'T CAUSE the decrease in pass attempts.

But, if we are going to extrapolate from dangerously small or dissimilar samples, consider this: AJ showed remarkable consistency across three games involving a variety of opponents and scorebaord scenarios. He got his in a blowout of an EXPECTEDLY weak Colts team when Schaub only threw it 24 times. The Texans weren't surprised it wasn't Manning under center. And they weren't oblivious to the fact that the Colts weren't able to move the ball on them al game. But AJ still got his. Against Miami, it's a comfortable lead but then it gets close in the fourth. Who do they look for? AJ. Against the Saints, AJ gets his again, and they have no problem letting Schaub open it up with 39 attempts. Not sure exactly when AJ got hurt so it's hard to say how his injury may have affected the Pittsburgh game.

So if we're going to use 2011 to predict for 2012, at least remain open to the possibility that AJ remains the primary target in this offense and will get enough targets, even when the attempts are down (in a blow-out win over an expectedly weak opponent), to put up very good WR1 numbers. It looks like he's relatively insulated from a dip in numbers even if the QB attempts vary from week to week due to the strength of the opponent. I'd also suggest that shouldn't be that much of a surprise when you consider how good he is, that he has a HC that isn't biased in favor of the running game, and that there really isn't a WR on the squad that can cannibalize his targets.

If you want to ding his draft stock, do it for injury reasons. What the running game does is give Kubiak security if AJ isn't available. A healthy running game and healthy passing game complement each other. At some point each game, AJ's going to see a sweet opportunity because there are going to be 8 in the box at times. And Kubiak won't be afraid to let Schaub go over the top even if they have a lead when it's AJ on the receiving end of it.

 

[FF Ninja]

4. He’ll be 31 this season

Is this now considered old for a WR?

No.

Not sure exactly when AJ got hurt so it's hard to say how his injury may have affected the Pittsburgh game.

Qtr Time Score Down/Dist  Yardline Description 2   6:19 7 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 50   caught pass for 13 yards (first down)

It happened on that 4th catch which would've gone for more than 13 yards had he not pulled that hamstring. Either way, his 4 catches were done in only 40% of the game.

 

[Mr.Underhill]

4. He’ll be 31 this season

Is this now considered old for a WR?

No.

Not sure exactly when AJ got hurt so it's hard to say how his injury may have affected the Pittsburgh game.

Qtr Time Score Down/Dist  Yardline Description 2   6:19 7 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 50   caught pass for 13 yards (first down)

It happened on that 4th catch which would've gone for more than 13 yards had he not pulled that hamstring. Either way, his 4 catches were done in only 40% of the game.

Thanks for digging that up.Even though it's a partial game, and Schaub only had 21 attempts on the game, it seems to support the idea that a healthy AJ is going to get his targets whether the team is ahead or behind, playing a weak or tough D, whether Schaub throws a lot or a little and regardless of whether the running game is working or not.That's pretty much a stud and the reason you don't bench them.

 

[The Ref]

In going to let someone else pay huge money for CJ and target AJ at a relative discount.

 

[Grahamburn]

There have been plenty of great fantasy seasons from WRs age 31+. Age shouldn't be a factor here.

From 2007-2010 Andre Johnson averaged 94.6, 98.4, 98.1, and 93.5 yards per game receiving respectively while producing 8, 8, 9, and 8 TDs in those seasons. Simply astounding and consistent production.

I'm not a risk averse person when it comes to injuries. There isn't any predictive value in "injury prone" labels or trying to figure out which player will get hurt and which one won't. I'd rather look at ppg production, and Andre Johnson has been a ppg monster.

The posters predicting numbers in the area of 1,100-1,200 yards and a handful of TDs are predicting injury, there's no other way to interpret those numbers. In which case Andre will have put up some really nice numbers when he was in the lineup.

Unless someone comes out of nowhere, he is the only WR that can legitimately challenge Calvin Johnson for the #1 overall WR crown, and Andre can be had at least a full round later. I really like him this year, and think he will keep his per game yardage totals near his 2007-2010 averages.

103 receptions, 1,448 yards, 9 TDs.

 

[Mr.Underhill]

In going to let someone else pay huge money for CJ and target AJ at a relative discount.

That may not be a bad strategy considering CJ is universally the #1 and in his own rarified tier.I paid $176 in May to keep AJ in a $1000 cap league. Keep in mind it's an IDP league with 53 man rosters. Fitz was already under contract for $220 and Roddy White brought $225. White got bid up before all the diminishing targets noise erupted, BTW.The advent of Foster/Tate and his own injuries of late seems to be pushing his value down. If there ever was a time to buy AJ for a good price, I think it's now.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

What killed AJ owners last year wasn’t his injury so much as it was the increasing length of his absence. Originally owners clung to optimistic 3-4 week timetables. When he wound up missing close to two months and the extra month wasn’t completely revealed until the first months absence was complete…most owners were too tardy in their contingency plans to accommodate the gap he posed in their line-ups.

It didn’t seem so long ago that the Houston offense ran directly through Schaub/AJ. In 2009, Matt Schaub had 583 pass attempts; 2010, it was 574. So to see a Houston Texans offense only put the ball up 467 times in 2011 was quite surprising indeed. Let’s not just blame Matt Schaub’s abbreviated season for this. Schaub was on pace to only have 519 attempts himself. So while I anticipate the Texans to eclipse the 500 mark again here, is the 2011 version of the HOU passing game going to involve 50-60 fewer passing attempts than when Schaub/AJ were considered one of the most feared QB/WR duos in the NFL?

The Houston offense may be a bit squirrelly to predict in 2012. At no time during the 2011 season were Schaub, Foster and Johnson ever healthy at the same time. So, you could blame the lower output of passing attempts on that. Could HOU go back to putting the ball up 575+ times per season? It’s possible, but they have a defense now. They have the best RB tandem in the NFL not to mention, probably the best RB in Foster. And quite frankly, in a weak division that will include 2 rebuilding outfits and another with a budding QB controversy, the need to air it out seems negligible. For who the Texans are, or more importantly, now want to be…525 attempts would seem to be their output ceiling.

So as this relates to AJ, the things he’s got going against him are:

1. Decreased emphasis on the passing game overall potentially.

2. Hamstring issues

3. He’s missed 12 games the last two seasons

4. He’ll be 31 this season

What he does have going for him is that the Texans have inexplicably never found compliments to him in the passing game so he is still unquestionably THE guy. His target pace after 3 games was 171. He generates 10-11 targets/game and so long as he’s on the field and healthy, will be the driving force behind the HOU passing attack. But how much you can count on Johnson to play 16 games is diminishing and with a player as important to HOU as Johnson still is, if he does incur any injuries, HOU has proven to be overly cautious with him when re-inserting him back to the line-up. Johnson is a high-risk/high-reward player. But the risk might now finally outweigh the reward.

Prediction: 13 games – 77 Receptions; 1047 Receiving Yards; 7 TD’s.

You all need to take a step back from the edge.Schaub only played 3 full games with AJ last year, week 1 against the Colts, week 2 against the Dolphins and week 3 against the Saints. Schaub played in 10 games. Does anyone think last year's numbers may have been skewed down BECAUSE Andre was not there and the running game was able to pick up that slack?

So, does that mean that the presence of a running game when AJ is healthy results in poor production for AJ? Not hardly.

In week 1 last year, the Texans were up 17-0 on the Dolphins at the end of the first quarter and up 34-0 at the end of the first half. Indy didn't score but once and not until the fourth quarter. What was AJ's line from this early lead blow-out? 7-95-1 on 11 targets. Schaub had 24 attempts.

In week 2, the Texans were up 16-3 at halftime. The Dolphins scored 10 unanswered points in the 3rd and 4th. The Texans then score the go ahead TD, with a pass to AJ. AJ's stat line? 7-93-1 on 9 targets. Schaub had 29 attempts.

In week 3, The Texans went up 10-0 on the Saints by the end of the first but were only up 16-10 at halftime. A much closer game. They ended up losing 33-40. AJ's stat line? 7-128-0 on 12 targets. Schaub had 39 attempts this game.

In week 4, against the Steelers, Houston was up 10-0 on the Steelers at halftime. The Steelers score 10 unanswered to tie it in the fourth. Foster scores on a 42 yard run. AJ is hurt in this game after going 4-36-0 on 5 targets. Schaub had 21 attempts this game.

Now, let me be clear, it's dangerous to extrapolate from a 3 game sample size. But it's no more dangerous than extrapolating from a season's worth of pass attempts when your dominant WR is only healthy in 3 of them on the implied assumption that his absence DIDN'T CAUSE the decrease in pass attempts.

But, if we are going to extrapolate from dangerously small or dissimilar samples, consider this: AJ showed remarkable consistency across three games involving a variety of opponents and scorebaord scenarios. He got his in a blowout of an EXPECTEDLY weak Colts team when Schaub only threw it 24 times. The Texans weren't surprised it wasn't Manning under center. And they weren't oblivious to the fact that the Colts weren't able to move the ball on them al game. But AJ still got his. Against Miami, it's a comfortable lead but then it gets close in the fourth. Who do they look for? AJ. Against the Saints, AJ gets his again, and they have no problem letting Schaub open it up with 39 attempts. Not sure exactly when AJ got hurt so it's hard to say how his injury may have affected the Pittsburgh game.

So if we're going to use 2011 to predict for 2012, at least remain open to the possibility that AJ remains the primary target in this offense and will get enough targets, even when the attempts are down (in a blow-out win over an expectedly weak opponent), to put up very good WR1 numbers. It looks like he's relatively insulated from a dip in numbers even if the QB attempts vary from week to week due to the strength of the opponent. I'd also suggest that shouldn't be that much of a surprise when you consider how good he is, that he has a HC that isn't biased in favor of the running game, and that there really isn't a WR on the squad that can cannibalize his targets.

If you want to ding his draft stock, do it for injury reasons. What the running game does is give Kubiak security if AJ isn't available. A healthy running game and healthy passing game complement each other. At some point each game, AJ's going to see a sweet opportunity because there are going to be 8 in the box at times. And Kubiak won't be afraid to let Schaub go over the top even if they have a lead when it's AJ on the receiving end of it.

This is very good work Mr Underhill, just would like to point out that Dirty Word posts a nice little entry in just about all the player profile pages. I don't always agree but I like that he explains his position and then gives a projection. I don't think he needs to step away from the edge, in fact I encourage him to dangle there for the rest of training camp.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

As a Houstonian, I love watching Andre Johnson. The guy is just amazing. He started off his career with David Carr which hurt him tremendously and it seems like he never gets quite as much respect as Fitz or Calvin. He gets knocked for not scoring a lot of TDs, but Houston just hasn't thrown many touchdowns. In 2009, Schaub threw 29 and AJ snagged 9 of them. In 2007, he caught 8 TDs in 9 games from a combo of Schaub and Rosenfels (in all of 2007, only 24 TDs were thrown). So even though he has only played in 54 of 64 games from 2007 to 2010, he scored 34% of the receiving TDs. If you take his TD/16 game average there, you get 9.8 TD.

Over that span he averaged 10.4 targets per game. I would think now that we've got such a solid ground game going that this number would drop, but in his first three games this year, he saw 11, 9, and 12 targets and was never fully healthy again until the playoffs in which he saw 9 and 15 targets. So I don't expect to see a significant dip in targets in 2012, especially since the Texans' starters remain the same. Jacoby Jones is gone. MSW is currently on the team. Other than that, the new competition has 0 NFL receptions.

I see no reason to think a healthy Andre Johnson does not regain his 2010 form (or 2011 before injury/after healed - 5 games, 517 yds, 3 TD). He looks like a solid bet for 100 receptions and 1500 yards with 8-10 TDs if he plays 16 games.

165 targets, 100 receptions x 15 ypr = 1500 yds 10 TD

Nice work here, especially the bolded. I didn't know these things and this info will cause me to re-examine my stance on AJ

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

Also, I look forward to Dirty Word's posts in the spotlight threads. They're always well thought out. I don't 100% agree with them, but that's kind of the point-to kick around different opinions