Andrew Luck: Elite QB? What say you... (1 Viewer)

[Ghost Rider]

He will get there. He's a prodigy and he has all of the mental/physical tools to be a perennial Pro Bowler.

In terms of the production, there are a lot of variables. Luck played on a bad team last season and threw the ball far more often than his fellow rookies, which probably goes a long way towards explaining why his efficiency stats didn't compare to guys like Wilson and Griffin. Stick either of those guys on an awful Colts team and force them to throw every down and they wouldn't have done any better. As Luck matures and as the supporting cast around him improves, he will only get better.

Did Wilson and Griffin have much better supporting casts on offense?

Is pass efficiency inversely related to passing volume?

Luck- 11 wins

Tannehill 7 wins

I guess you think it was the Colts vaunted Defense and Special Teams that was more accountable for the wins? Or maybe the 4 rookies at the skill positions? (TY, Fleener, Allen, and Ballard)

When the NFL starts giving wins and losses for passer rating, you'll have a case. Until then...

Wins are team stats, not player stats. Also, the Colts defense may not have been that great, but they did hold their opponents to under 20 points or less in eight of their 11 wins, so there is that.

Anyway, to answer the question, no, Luck is certainly not elite yet, but he probably will be before long. He just isn't yet. And anyone saying he is already needs to have their head checked.

Team wins really are based on the makeup of that team. How many wins would the Colts have with a another Vet QB who isn't already an established elite one in 2012? Would Rex Grossman starting 16 games with the same team Luck had get them to 11-5?

ETA: the Colts also had a HUGE part of their season without Pagano. They now have made a real smart move in getting Hamilton as OC. Bruce Arians did a helluva job in Indy, yet the Colts did not lose in either way because they have a legit franchise QB who really did have an impact as a field general.

Team game? Franchise QB's make a lesser team better. It's not whether Luck puts up "Elite" numbers in today's NFL offenses like Matt Stafford has the past two seasons, where Stafford may even eclipse the 800 attempt number which is insane. IMO Luck attempts will be less with Hamilton as OC, but with a greater percentage regardless of the makeup and progression of where the Colts FO is building around him.

Ultimately stats don't really reflect Elite or Team. Advanced statistical metrics will always have the basic fundamental base mathematics of the effectiveness of blocking and tackling. If every team had the same quality in the trenches in both offense as well as defense where football plays really start, then you would may not need a franchise QB.

QB's matter in today's football. Everything in the game is skewed towards QB play. You may have a team where even Terry Bradshaw can win in this modern era, but it's still a QB driven league.

I am aware of all of that. Having a very good or great QB means your team is generally gonna win more games over the long haul, but I think comparing QBs on wins from just one season doesn't work. I mean, are we gonna say that Christian Ponder and Jay Cutler are better than Drew Brees cause they won three more games than he did last year? Of course not. That is all I was saying.

 

[MattFancy]

I have heard this a number of times here today. Got to say, it caught me a little off guard.

I don't see any justification for this sentiment. Good QB with great potential, who so far is good but pretty far from great, is how I see it.

Your thoughts? If you think he's elite, can you explain?

Elite is Russell Wilson or RGIII. For him to join his QB Classmates he needs to not turn the ball over like he did. Simply throwing for yards due to a large amount of passes isn't elite.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/quarterbackRating

http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr

He finished 26th in QB Raiting and 11th in QBR. Not elite.

Good thing my league doesn't use QB Rating for scoring then.

Anyone care to look up Peyton Manning's QBR his rookie season? lol, cause I did. It was less than Manning's in '98 (71.2).

Using one rookie season with a poor Colts team to define Elite, while tossing in Wilson is ItS banging the pipe again.

Let's see how elite Wilson is with those crappy WRs.

I'm not a huge Wilson guy, but his WRs this year will be the same ones he had last year.

 

[saintfool]

He finished outside of the top 10, I think. the top 4-5 are pretty well entrenched. i think he can move into that top 10 space with Hamilton's system, losing Arians' system and improved line play but he won't break top 5 "elite" anytime soon.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I'm not a huge Wilson guy, but his WRs this year will be the same ones he had last year.

Yep. People love to say that Wilson had a more help than Luck, and that is true with regards to their respective rushing games, but Wayne and Hilton were better than any WR that Wilson was throwing it to last year.

 

[MattFancy]

I'm not a huge Wilson guy, but his WRs this year will be the same ones he had last year.

Yep. People love to say that Wilson had a more help than Luck, and that is true with regards to their respective rushing games, but Wayne and Hilton were better than any WR that Wilson was throwing it to last year.

Agreed. And same goes for RG3. I beleive his numbers would've been much better with a healthy Garcon all season and Fred Davis. So having those 2 back healthy could be a huge difference. I mean most weeks last year RG3 was throwing to Josh Morgan, Santana Moss, Aldrick Robinson, and Logan Paulsen. Not exactly the best group of receivers.

 

[mphtrilogy]

I moved him up my draft board ahead of RGIII, Wilson & Kap, for these reasons:

I'm not an NFL evaluator, but I trust my own regular football watching eyes and the guy to me is the definition of the real deal.

• #1 overall pick in 2012 draft over what could possibly be a HOF cailber #2 player in RG3, talent evaluators placed him at 'elite' intagibles coming into the pro game.
• Team won 2 games before he arrived, with only a "moderate" overhaul on the roster, the WRs were not dramatically different, in fact maybe worse, as the solid A Collie was out, this resulted in 9 additional wins, all due to QB play, imho
• Can be a sneaky run guy and defintely adds value there and I bet some read option will occassionally get deployed, they will take more advantage of his legs this season i think.
• Reunited with comfort zone Pep the old coach, and one year additional tutealge in the NFL system, this QB rat gets a full offseason under his belt, fully healthy, not recovering from any injuries to absorb the playbook and the NFL pro game, the team adds some decent DHB as depth, Hilton continuing his emergence as a future stud, and RWayne steady hand contnues his TEs are solid, so there are decent weapons that have been placed for increased production from last years Solid stats.
• The Ind D has not gotten dramatically better , despite those that say they want to run more, Bradhsaw is not a bellweather back, nor is brown or ballard, the reality is, Luck is the best weapon on the team and smart teams use there best weapons, the team will use him as often as possible, with a full understanding of the playbook and now 1 year experience, last year was the floor
• nfl evaluator greg cosell, metnioned on sigmunds on the couch ep, how he absolutely loves luck, and was relaly really impressed with how he plays and throws
• nfl evaluator matt wiliamson on last weeks on the couch, absotuely loves him, and calls him elite already, and yeah after the big 3, he takes luck
• this pre-season, luck has looked great, just watching him throw that corner fade to hilton for a td against the giants made me jump up and say, what am i doing putting him behind Wislon, RGIII and kap? hes probably the surest guy after the top 6 known quantities are gone.
• i moved him to 7, i hope he will jump into top 5, i can see him knocking on that door.
• and when the team conitnues to drafr top flight wr weapons, he will move into top 3 and settle in there for 10 years, my guess is 3 years from now, he will be a top 3 guy for adecade.

for now, i'll be happy to anchor my qb core with him and not look back

caveat, i also love r wilson, and am intrigued by kapernick and rg3 i would love to have these guys....but rg3's knee not so much the existing worries me but a new hit with his style of play worries me, kapernick losing crabtree worries me and harbaugh not showing me much in the preseason worries me a tad the team is aDefense first team, but kap is really tantalizing, and r wilson i have to say, without harvin, i have to temper a bit, although i really have him neck and neck with luck in my own minds eye, i want either one of these guys on my team this year... and i am not so sure scheider takes 1 second for that swap.. r wilson looks like the real deal as well...

 

[Holy Schneikes]

As others have pointed out, "elite" is tough to define from either the NFL perspective or the fantasy perspective. Then the the "right now" vs "going forward" argument goes in to it.

All in all, for me the answer is no. He's not elite (by my rough definition) yet. He may become elite or he may not. Magic 8 ball says "Ask again later".

In no real order here some guys that are probably better right now:

Rodgers

Manning

Brady

Brees

Newton

Kaepernick

Wilson

Roethlisberger

Flacco (i'm higher on him than some in terms of real football)

Then a bunch of guys who are comparable and may be better:

Ryan

RG3

Romo

Stafford

Other Manning

Bradford

Freeman

Schaub

etc.

Just too many guys either clearly better or might be better right now for him to be considered elite. In fact there are just a HANDFUL of starters I would say are DEFINITIVELY worse than he is. He's better than Sanchez and Gabbert. Everybody else could have an argument made for them.

 

[Tau837]

Team won 2 games before he arrived, with only a "moderate" overhaul on the roster, the WRs were not dramatically different, in fact maybe worse, as the solid A Collie was out, this resulted in 9 additional wins, all due to QB play, imho

This is completely off base. The Colts turned over almost 2/3 of their roster between the 2011 and 2012 seasons, and they also got a new coaching staff and a new GM. It's possible there has never been an NFL team in history that was overhauled more.

 

[pizzatyme]

How was Terry Bradshaw's YPA? You know, the guy with 4 rings.

Is the question is Luck's YPA Elite? If so, then no.

Is the question, is he an Elite QB? That is subjective, so it can be answered anyway one chooses.

 

[King of the Jungle]

It is a lot to ask of a rookie quarterback to be thrown into a dramatically different offense than he had in college and asked to carry his team (which was the worst in the NFL the previous year). Especially when there is not a solid ground attack or above average pass protection. What he was able to accomplish last year on that team was nothing short of incredible. I don't care about his completion percentage or YPA, the dude stuck in the pocket and took shot after shot and led his team to victories when it counted.

Is he elite?.....not sure exactly what the definition is. I will say if I am starting a franchise I cannot think of another QB I would rather have right now.

 

[mphtrilogy]

Team won 2 games before he arrived, with only a "moderate" overhaul on the roster, the WRs were not dramatically different, in fact maybe worse, as the solid A Collie was out, this resulted in 9 additional wins, all due to QB play, imho

This is completely off base. The Colts turned over almost 2/3 of their roster between the 2011 and 2012 seasons, and they also got a new coaching staff and a new GM. It's possible there has never been an NFL team in history that was overhauled more.

I dont disagree, the roster was completely overhauled, but to move from 2 wins to 11, when most prognostictors had them as pre-season 30-32 ranked, to me that is 95% of the time, all QB related, just the same reason that PManning kept them relevant

 

[Holy Schneikes]

It is a lot to ask of a rookie quarterback to be thrown into a dramatically different offense than he had in college and asked to carry his team (which was the worst in the NFL the previous year). Especially when there is not a solid ground attack or above average pass protection. What he was able to accomplish last year on that team was nothing short of incredible. I don't care about his completion percentage or YPA, the dude stuck in the pocket and took shot after shot and led his team to victories when it counted.

Is he elite?.....not sure exactly what the definition is. I will say if I am starting a franchise I cannot think of another QB I would rather have right now.

"Starting a franchise" is a different question than the one I answered, but it's an interesting one too. You throw out all of the guys well over 30 of course, which is a lot of the truly elite guys right there. Manning, Brady, Brees, etc.

But you wouldn't consider Rodgers or Newton or Kaep etc? Not to mention his fellow rooks from last year RG3 and Wilson. I would think all of those guys get consideration. I'd consider Flacco as well.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Team won 2 games before he arrived, with only a "moderate" overhaul on the roster, the WRs were not dramatically different, in fact maybe worse, as the solid A Collie was out, this resulted in 9 additional wins, all due to QB play, imho

This is completely off base. The Colts turned over almost 2/3 of their roster between the 2011 and 2012 seasons, and they also got a new coaching staff and a new GM. It's possible there has never been an NFL team in history that was overhauled more.

Yep. Plus, the Colts were unprepared in 2011 to play without Peyton Manning, so acting like Luck went 11-5 with virtually the same team that went 2-14 is just plain wrong.

 

[Raider Nation]

To answer the question, elite is a stupid term. How do you quantify it?

With your own subjective criteria. Which may be stupid, or may not, depending how you choose.

I wasn't picking on you with that comment, BTW. All of the talking heads on TV use the term, and unless someone outlines a specific criteria which makes someone "elite", it's kind of a senseless debate.

 

[pepperfoot]

i say he will be . he is young and showing promise...but it takes a couple of years to settle in the pro . i think he wili reach his best in two years

 

[mphtrilogy]

Team won 2 games before he arrived, with only a "moderate" overhaul on the roster, the WRs were not dramatically different, in fact maybe worse, as the solid A Collie was out, this resulted in 9 additional wins, all due to QB play, imho

This is completely off base. The Colts turned over almost 2/3 of their roster between the 2011 and 2012 seasons, and they also got a new coaching staff and a new GM. It's possible there has never been an NFL team in history that was overhauled more.

Yep. Plus, the Colts were unprepared in 2011 to play without Peyton Manning, so acting like Luck went 11-5 with virtually the same team that went 2-14 is just plain wrong.

how many games would they have won with a middle of the road qb like matt schaub?

 

[Ghost Rider]

Team won 2 games before he arrived, with only a "moderate" overhaul on the roster, the WRs were not dramatically different, in fact maybe worse, as the solid A Collie was out, this resulted in 9 additional wins, all due to QB play, imho

This is completely off base. The Colts turned over almost 2/3 of their roster between the 2011 and 2012 seasons, and they also got a new coaching staff and a new GM. It's possible there has never been an NFL team in history that was overhauled more.

Yep. Plus, the Colts were unprepared in 2011 to play without Peyton Manning, so acting like Luck went 11-5 with virtually the same team that went 2-14 is just plain wrong.

how many games would they have won with a middle of the road qb like matt schaub?

That is impossible to know. We can both sit here and guess till we are blue in the face, but we just don't know.

 

[Man of Zen]

To answer the question, elite is a stupid term. How do you quantify it?

With your own subjective criteria. Which may be stupid, or may not, depending how you choose.

I wasn't picking on you with that comment, BTW. All of the talking heads on TV use the term, and unless someone outlines a specific criteria which makes someone "elite", it's kind of a senseless debate.

I didn't think you were, but the answer remains the same.

I also don't think it's a stupid debate, precisely because the term is subjective. If it were just a matter of looking at an objective data sheet, then there wouldn't be anything to debate. Just the fact that so many people come down on different sides of it shows the validity of the practice, IMO.

Even if half of them are just plain wrong.

 

[B-Deep]

Elite talent now. Elite production to come.

coulda just ended here

 

[Rolling_akg]

Just misses elite for the season. Puts it together around week 10 and wins lots of people fantasy titles

 

[mphtrilogy]

Team won 2 games before he arrived, with only a "moderate" overhaul on the roster, the WRs were not dramatically different, in fact maybe worse, as the solid A Collie was out, this resulted in 9 additional wins, all due to QB play, imho

This is completely off base. The Colts turned over almost 2/3 of their roster between the 2011 and 2012 seasons, and they also got a new coaching staff and a new GM. It's possible there has never been an NFL team in history that was overhauled more.

Yep. Plus, the Colts were unprepared in 2011 to play without Peyton Manning, so acting like Luck went 11-5 with virtually the same team that went 2-14 is just plain wrong.

how many games would they have won with a middle of the road qb like matt schaub?

That is impossible to know. We can both sit here and guess till we are blue in the face, but we just don't know.

yep, no point in debating, I think his rookie year, like RG3, was a revelation

all i want to say is I'mon board, I think he is elite, and will be happy if I have him on my team this year.

 

[Raider Nation]

To answer the question, elite is a stupid term. How do you quantify it?

With your own subjective criteria. Which may be stupid, or may not, depending how you choose.

I wasn't picking on you with that comment, BTW. All of the talking heads on TV use the term, and unless someone outlines a specific criteria which makes someone "elite", it's kind of a senseless debate.

I didn't think you were, but the answer remains the same.I also don't think it's a stupid debate, precisely because the term is subjective. If it were just a matter of looking at an objective data sheet, then there wouldn't be anything to debate. Just the fact that so many people come down on different sides of it shows the validity of the practice, IMO.

Even if half of them are just plain wrong.

Okay, he's elite.

Boy, was that fun!

 

[Man of Zen]

To answer the question, elite is a stupid term. How do you quantify it?

With your own subjective criteria. Which may be stupid, or may not, depending how you choose.

I wasn't picking on you with that comment, BTW. All of the talking heads on TV use the term, and unless someone outlines a specific criteria which makes someone "elite", it's kind of a senseless debate.

I didn't think you were, but the answer remains the same.I also don't think it's a stupid debate, precisely because the term is subjective. If it were just a matter of looking at an objective data sheet, then there wouldn't be anything to debate. Just the fact that so many people come down on different sides of it shows the validity of the practice, IMO.

Even if half of them are just plain wrong.

Okay, he's elite.

Boy, was that fun!

I'll put you down for the elite side, and just note it "no justification." Your participation is appreciated.

 

[pizzatyme]

Zen, define "Elite" QB, please?

 

[Raider Nation]

To answer the question, elite is a stupid term. How do you quantify it?

With your own subjective criteria. Which may be stupid, or may not, depending how you choose.

I wasn't picking on you with that comment, BTW. All of the talking heads on TV use the term, and unless someone outlines a specific criteria which makes someone "elite", it's kind of a senseless debate.

I didn't think you were, but the answer remains the same.I also don't think it's a stupid debate, precisely because the term is subjective. If it were just a matter of looking at an objective data sheet, then there wouldn't be anything to debate. Just the fact that so many people come down on different sides of it shows the validity of the practice, IMO.

Even if half of them are just plain wrong.

Okay, he's elite.

Boy, was that fun!

I'll put you down for the elite side, and just note it "no justification." Your participation is appreciated.

Why do I need to justify it? You said yourself it's all subjective. I can't just know ELITE when I see it?

 

[Raider Nation]

Zen, define "Elite" QB, please?

 

[drummer]

He will get there. He's a prodigy and he has all of the mental/physical tools to be a perennial Pro Bowler.

In terms of the production, there are a lot of variables. Luck played on a bad team last season and threw the ball far more often than his fellow rookies, which probably goes a long way towards explaining why his efficiency stats didn't compare to guys like Wilson and Griffin. Stick either of those guys on an awful Colts team and force them to throw every down and they wouldn't have done any better. As Luck matures and as the supporting cast around him improves, he will only get better.

Did Wilson and Griffin have much better supporting casts on offense?

Is pass efficiency inversely related to passing volume?

Luck- 11 wins

Tannehill 7 wins

I guess you think it was the Colts vaunted Defense and Special Teams that was more accountable for the wins? Or maybe the 4 rookies at the skill positions? (TY, Fleener, Allen, and Ballard)

When the NFL starts giving wins and losses for passer rating, you'll have a case. Until then...

Wins are team stats, not player stats. Also, the Colts defense may not have been that great, but they did hold their opponents to under 20 points or less in eight of their 11 wins, so there is that.

Anyway, to answer the question, no, Luck is certainly not elite yet, but he probably will be before long. He just isn't yet. And anyone saying he is already needs to have their head checked.

Team wins really are based on the makeup of that team. How many wins would the Colts have with a another Vet QB who isn't already an established elite one in 2012? Would Rex Grossman starting 16 games with the same team Luck had get them to 11-5?

ETA: the Colts also had a HUGE part of their season without Pagano. They now have made a real smart move in getting Hamilton as OC. Bruce Arians did a helluva job in Indy, yet the Colts did not lose in either way because they have a legit franchise QB who really did have an impact as a field general.

Team game? Franchise QB's make a lesser team better. It's not whether Luck puts up "Elite" numbers in today's NFL offenses like Matt Stafford has the past two seasons, where Stafford may even eclipse the 800 attempt number which is insane. IMO Luck attempts will be less with Hamilton as OC, but with a greater percentage regardless of the makeup and progression of where the Colts FO is building around him.

Ultimately stats don't really reflect Elite or Team. Advanced statistical metrics will always have the basic fundamental base mathematics of the effectiveness of blocking and tackling. If every team had the same quality in the trenches in both offense as well as defense where football plays really start, then you would may not need a franchise QB.

QB's matter in today's football. Everything in the game is skewed towards QB play. You may have a team where even Terry Bradshaw can win in this modern era, but it's still a QB driven league.

I am aware of all of that. Having a very good or great QB means your team is generally gonna win more games over the long haul, but I think comparing QBs on wins from just one season doesn't work. I mean, are we gonna say that Christian Ponder and Jay Cutler are better than Drew Brees cause they won three more games than he did last year? Of course not. That is all I was saying.

I agree.

 

[cobalt_27]

Elite. Absolutely no question about it.

 

[Slider]

If you have to question if Luck is elite you probably should join a rotisserie baseball league or start golfing.

 

[need2know]

Luck gets drafted to a total train wreck of a team, no oline, crap rbs, mediocre wrs(wayne and rookies), and loses his coach. Despite all this, he takes his team to the playoffs and posts top ten numbers. What more do you want?

This season he has his college playcaller, a better oline, an emerging wr in hilton... His numbers are only going to get better. Might be top 5 qb if he gets lucky.. More than likely ends up ranked 5-8. Dude is a stud

 

[Koya]

I sadly feel as if the word "elite" has gone the way of the word "literally"

"Elite" literally has no meaning anymore.

 

[ShaHBucks]

I like Luck as a future great. I don't let my emotions vault him into Rodgers-Bree's territory just yet. The truth is he wasn't that great as a passer last season. I don't even mean he just off to a bad start. He played bad late in the season as well unlike Wilson/RG3. Week 11-16 his comp % was 49%. I'm a Eagles fan I would go tooth and nail with my boys about how Nick Foles was playing as good/better since he became the starter visually and statistically. All they would say is Luck wins games, well so does Tebow. We will see if another year is the remedy. Wilson/RG3 are already elite and have progressed faster than Luck. If we are just talking wins and losses in NFL games Luck isn't that far off.

As far as all of he rookies I thought look good last season(Luck-Wilson-RG3-Foles) I can honestly say that they all did exactly what their coaches asked them to do. Luck was asked to throw deep relentlessly. I think a high comp% for deep balls is something like 50%. If he was in a WCO he would have a high comp% with short passes and dump offs. So his comp% doesn't bother me as much as the next stat-head when you put it in context.

This year we will see if Luck is a plug in and forget about QB in FF. the schedule is more complex than last. He faces Sea- Den- Cin- Hou ect.. We'll see if he is matchup proof or not.

 

[INRIhab]

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/positionLeadersVisualization.php

Thought this was a cool chart. Stats like Win Probability Added and Expected Points Added are much less tangible, but it's interesting to note that Luck was in a class of his own last season.

 

[Hagger]

To me personally, the term "elite" has special meaning that should be retained for the best of the best of the best. IMHO there are only 4 QBs in the league who can be called elite. Brady, P. Manning, Brees, Rodgers. They all have both mind blowing statistics and championships. When you have both, you're "elite". I've always felt like guys like Flacco, Roethlisberger and E. Manning get overrated because of their rings, but have only above average talent and statistics. I also feel guys like Romo, Ryan, Newton, Stafford etc. get overrated because of high statistical production but still have flaws that lead to not winning it all. So to answer if Luck is elite, my answer is no. But I do feel he has a solid chance to eventually reach that elite level. His talent is off-the-chart high. As many people are pointing out, elite is subjective and means something different to each person, but that's all what it means to me.

 

[GregR]

I think Luck is going to throw a fair number of interceptions again this year. Watching him in preseason, he doesn't back off from things like pressure in his face. He'll still throw the ball but with less accuracy and some of those are going to be interceptions. He had a couple again tonight. Threw a ball around a pass rusher in his face, the ball was a bit high right into the face of his receiver who couldn't snag it in time and it deflected for a pick.

I think he'll be a great QB before his career is done, but he's got some rough edges still to smooth before he hits his full potential.

 

[MAC_32]

In love.

 

[pizzatyme]

I sadly feel as if the word "elite" has gone the way of the word "literally"

"Elite" literally has no meaning anymore.

That's UNBELIEVABLE!

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

What do people expect from Luck vs the Broncos today?

My impression is QBs (Romo, Henne) have done well vs the Broncos, but I haven't really checked.

Do we see a poor day, typical day (say 250/2 TD), or excellent day from Luck vs DEN? - Thoughts?

 

[maf005]

What do people expect from Luck vs the Broncos today?

My impression is QBs (Romo, Henne) have done well vs the Broncos, but I haven't really checked.

Do we see a poor day, typical day (say 250/2 TD), or excellent day from Luck vs DEN? - Thoughts?

Prob closer to excellent vs Denver today. At home (check out his home-away splits, sharks) against a vulnerable Denver pass defense. Wayne and Hilton will have big games..the looming question for me is who will be the 3rd player to catch passes. Fleener and DHB are basically the only other options getting reps.

 

[Area51Inhabitant]

I'm seeing a regression this season on his third down conversions. I still would love for my NFL team to have him as my qb of the present/future but with all young qb's there will be growing pains along the way.

 

[Man of Zen]

Seems pretty clear at this point we can rule out "elite" status for at least this year. 1300/7/3 through six weeks certainly doesn't guarantee anything, but it's a hell of an indicator that we're talking about a guy who's still second tier if everything breaks right for him -- both fantasy and NFL-wise.

 

[Man of Zen]

Still bullish about his future as an NFL QB. The fact that they're doing fairly well with the ultra-conservative HC is bad news if you're a dynasty FF owner, though. The more success the Colts have under Pep, the further down the Aikman trail Luck will travel. :(

 

[oswizzle]

Today Luck will go off...Richardson was traded to Indy for this game... He's an extra O-Lineman .. slow down that pass rush and watch Hilton run circles around these DB's today... I cant wait for this game!

 

[jurb26]

Seems pretty clear at this point we can rule out "elite" status for at least this year. 1300/7/3 through six weeks certainly doesn't guarantee anything, but it's a hell of an indicator that we're talking about a guy who's still second tier if everything breaks right for him -- both fantasy and NFL-wise.

Perhaps his stats would be better with his best TE on the field and his other weapons not dropping passes every game?

 

[Man of Zen]

Most QB's would love an ideal world where all their weapons stay healthy and their receivers never drop the ball. That reality doesn't exist. If it did, Luck would still be second tier if for no other reason than that his HC isn't turning the passing game loose like you see happen week-in/week-out with the guys who end up with the "elite" label.

He's a good QB, and may end up a great leader. Don't think he's becoming a fantasy force any time over the next half decade, though.

 

[need2know]

Still bullish about his future as an NFL QB. The fact that they're doing fairly well with the ultra-conservative HC is bad news if you're a dynasty FF owner, though. The more success the Colts have under Pep, the further down the Aikman trail Luck will travel. :(

They will get blown out if they don't open it up today

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Any opinions on whether Luck exceeds expectations this year?

The receiver situation is improved, Wayne returning (albeit older, post-PUP maybe, etc), Hilton, add Nicks and Moncrief, Rogers a year older and improved, Allen and Fleener both available.

Plus what may again be a limited run game forcing the Colts to turn to the pass despite whatever they want to do.

And Luck a year older, getting closer to his prime.

 

[maf005]

Any opinions on whether Luck exceeds expectations this year?

The receiver situation is improved, Wayne returning (albeit older, post-PUP maybe, etc), Hilton, add Nicks and Moncrief, Rogers a year older and improved, Allen and Fleener both available.

Plus what may again be a limited run game forcing the Colts to turn to the pass despite whatever they want to do.

And Luck a year older, getting closer to his prime.

I'm extremely high on Luck as a real life qb but his fantasy prospects depend so much on how bad their defense is, along with the Pep factor. In an ideal game script, I still feel they will be a run heavy offense despite Pep's offseason comments.

So to me Luck's stats will be highly correlated with Indy's defense, which is not something I have a stong opinion on at this point.

As for Luck and his improved weapons, I would hope that means he will be more efficient and cut down on turnovers.

And one thing to note about Allen, while he may be a very capable receiving TE, he is also a great run blocker. His return will directly help Trent

 

[dhockster]

Any opinions on whether Luck exceeds expectations this year?

The receiver situation is improved, Wayne returning (albeit older, post-PUP maybe, etc), Hilton, add Nicks and Moncrief, Rogers a year older and improved, Allen and Fleener both available.

Plus what may again be a limited run game forcing the Colts to turn to the pass despite whatever they want to do.

And Luck a year older, getting closer to his prime.

I'm extremely high on Luck as a real life qb but his fantasy prospects depend so much on how bad their defense is, along with the Pep factor. In an ideal game script, I still feel they will be a run heavy offense despite Pep's offseason comments.

So to me Luck's stats will be highly correlated with Indy's defense, which is not something I have a stong opinion on at this point.

As for Luck and his improved weapons, I would hope that means he will be more efficient and cut down on turnovers.

And one thing to note about Allen, while he may be a very capable receiving TE, he is also a great run blocker. His return will directly help Trent

I agree with most of what you say here. If you think the Colts defense is going to continue to improve under Pagano, that may lead to them being more conservative on offense. I have my doubts as to how much

better they may be, especially with Mathis out the first four games, so that may work in Luck's favor.

As to the bolded, Luck only had 9 interceptions last year, and the Colts overall turned the ball over the least of any team. I am not sure how much more he can cut down on turnovers.

 

[maf005]

Any opinions on whether Luck exceeds expectations this year?

The receiver situation is improved, Wayne returning (albeit older, post-PUP maybe, etc), Hilton, add Nicks and Moncrief, Rogers a year older and improved, Allen and Fleener both available.

Plus what may again be a limited run game forcing the Colts to turn to the pass despite whatever they want to do.

And Luck a year older, getting closer to his prime.

I'm extremely high on Luck as a real life qb but his fantasy prospects depend so much on how bad their defense is, along with the Pep factor. In an ideal game script, I still feel they will be a run heavy offense despite Pep's offseason comments.

So to me Luck's stats will be highly correlated with Indy's defense, which is not something I have a stong opinion on at this point.

As for Luck and his improved weapons, I would hope that means he will be more efficient and cut down on turnovers.

And one thing to note about Allen, while he may be a very capable receiving TE, he is also a great run blocker. His return will directly help Trent

I agree with most of what you say here. If you think the Colts defense is going to continue to improve under Pagano, that may lead to them being more conservative on offense. I have my doubts as to how much

better they may be, especially with Mathis out the first four games, so that may work in Luck's favor.

As to the bolded, Luck only had 9 interceptions last year, and the Colts overall turned the ball over the least of any team. I am not sure how much more he can cut down on turnovers.

Whoa, that he only had 9 ints surprised me. His 7 playoff ints must have skewed my perception of his season lol

Here are the FBG projections:


Name Tm/Bye Age Exp Cmp Att Cm% PYd Y/Att PTD Int Rsh Yd TD Andrew Luck IND/10

25 3 367 610 60.2 4423 7.25 26 13 63 347 2


I would adjust slightly as follows:

Name Tm/Bye Age Exp Cmp Att Cm% PYd Y/Att PTD Int Rsh Yd TD Andrew Luck IND/10

25 3 352 550 64 3960 7.2 29 10 60 350 2

Edit* my table didn't paste properly :/ sry