Andrew Luck: Elite QB? What say you... (1 Viewer)

[Man of Zen]

I have heard this a number of times here today. Got to say, it caught me a little off guard.

I don't see any justification for this sentiment. Good QB with great potential, who so far is good but pretty far from great, is how I see it.

Your thoughts? If you think he's elite, can you explain?

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I actually like Russell Wilson a touch more despite him going after Luck in most drafts I've seen.

 

[ponchsox]

Elite as in Rodgers or Brees Elite? No. Could he move up into Ryan/Brady territory? Possibly. His stock seems a little overvalued because of a couple preseason games IMO.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Wouldn't bet on him ascending to the upper echelon this year -- but I wouldn't bet against it happening over the next few, either. He's legit, but these things take time. The current crop has set the bar really effing high.

 

[Man of Zen]

Elite as in Rodgers or Brees Elite? No. Could he move up into Ryan/Brady territory? Possibly. His stock seems a little overvalued because of a couple preseason games IMO.

I mean, I guess that's part of it.

What does elite mean to people calling him that? The NFL's worst backup QB is "elite" in a global sense. But by every definition that carries any meaning on a FF discussion board, I figure you've got to be talking at least top quarter, right?

He verifiably didn't hit those levels in terms of fantasy last year. If you want to make a distinction between "real" and "fantasy," I guess you can try to make the case, but that opens the door for the Eli Mannings and Ben Roethlisbergers of the world who would have fallen behind him in fantasy, but have clearly led NFL teams at levels Luck has not yet achieved.

I can't, for instance, see the rationale for bumping Wayne's draft stock up because he's "playing with an elite QB."

Yeah, he's shredding it in the preseason. But so is Brady. And Bradford. And Weeden. And Vick. Vanilla defenses make that easier, and none of these guys is posting a 130 QB rating for the season. Luck needs to prove it to me before I put him up there with the kind of esteemed company that gets called elite.

 

[sports_fan]

He's probably still a year or two away but the Colts overhauled their o-line which can only help. Last year their line play was pretty abysmal.

 

[Man of Zen]

I hope he makes the jump to elite. Sooner rather than later would be my preference. Seems the next wave of stud QB's is all set to be read option specialists. Would love to see more traditional pocket guys in the mix.

 

[ImTheScientist]

I have heard this a number of times here today. Got to say, it caught me a little off guard.

I don't see any justification for this sentiment. Good QB with great potential, who so far is good but pretty far from great, is how I see it.

Your thoughts? If you think he's elite, can you explain?

Elite is Russell Wilson or RGIII. For him to join his QB Classmates he needs to not turn the ball over like he did. Simply throwing for yards due to a large amount of passes isn't elite.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/quarterbackRating

http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr

He finished 26th in QB Raiting and 11th in QBR. Not elite.

 

[Flea Flicker]

I have heard this a number of times here today. Got to say, it caught me a little off guard.

I don't see any justification for this sentiment. Good QB with great potential, who so far is good but pretty far from great, is how I see it.

Your thoughts? If you think he's elite, can you explain?

Elite is Russell Wilson or RGIII. For him to join his QB Classmates he needs to not turn the ball over like he did. Simply throwing for yards due to a large amount of passes isn't elite.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/quarterbackRating

http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr

He finished 26th in QB Raiting and 11th in QBR. Not elite.

Good thing my league doesn't use QB Rating for scoring then.

Anyone care to look up Peyton Manning's QBR his rookie season? lol, cause I did. It was less than Manning's in '98 (71.2).

 

[drummer]

I have heard this a number of times here today. Got to say, it caught me a little off guard.

I don't see any justification for this sentiment. Good QB with great potential, who so far is good but pretty far from great, is how I see it.

Your thoughts? If you think he's elite, can you explain?

Elite is Russell Wilson or RGIII. For him to join his QB Classmates he needs to not turn the ball over like he did. Simply throwing for yards due to a large amount of passes isn't elite.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/quarterbackRating

http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr

He finished 26th in QB Raiting and 11th in QBR. Not elite.

Good thing my league doesn't use QB Rating for scoring then.

Anyone care to look up Peyton Manning's QBR his rookie season? lol, cause I did. It was less than Manning's in '98 (71.2).

Using one rookie season with a poor Colts team to define Elite, while tossing in Wilson is ItS banging the pipe again.

 

[ImTheScientist]

I have heard this a number of times here today. Got to say, it caught me a little off guard.

I don't see any justification for this sentiment. Good QB with great potential, who so far is good but pretty far from great, is how I see it.

Your thoughts? If you think he's elite, can you explain?

Elite is Russell Wilson or RGIII. For him to join his QB Classmates he needs to not turn the ball over like he did. Simply throwing for yards due to a large amount of passes isn't elite.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/quarterbackRating

http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr

He finished 26th in QB Raiting and 11th in QBR. Not elite.

Good thing my league doesn't use QB Rating for scoring then.

Anyone care to look up Peyton Manning's QBR his rookie season? lol, cause I did. It was less than Manning's in '98 (71.2).

Using one rookie season with a poor Colts team to define Elite, while tossing in Wilson is ItS banging the pipe again.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Elite talent now. Elite production to come.

 

[oswizzle]

Luck is going to put it down this season... Healthy Bradshaw is going to help him out also

 

[Thews40]

Luck is going to put it down this season... Healthy Bradshaw is going to help him out also

I agree with this. I think Luck is top 5.

 

[drummer]

Luck is back with Pep Hamilton. There is a whole lotta good things that will come from that. Luck is gonna make some big strides this season. Should be fun to watch.

 

[msudaisy26]

Elite as in Rodgers or Brees Elite? No. Could he move up into Ryan/Brady territory? Possibly. His stock seems a little overvalued because of a couple preseason games IMO.

When has Ryan been in Brady's class? When was Brady not in the elite class?

 

[Voice Of Reason]

Luck was not an elite NFL QB last year. He was around the range of a below average to average starting QB.

He has a ton of hype coming off his college career which people are running away with, imo, as he wasn't much more productive than Ryan Tannenhill last year. ** In terms of helping his team win games, not fantasy wise.

 

[JohnnyU]

I have heard this a number of times here today. Got to say, it caught me a little off guard.

I don't see any justification for this sentiment. Good QB with great potential, who so far is good but pretty far from great, is how I see it.

Your thoughts? If you think he's elite, can you explain?

Elite is Russell Wilson or RGIII. For him to join his QB Classmates he needs to not turn the ball over like he did. Simply throwing for yards due to a large amount of passes isn't elite.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/quarterbackRating

http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr

He finished 26th in QB Raiting and 11th in QBR. Not elite.

Good thing my league doesn't use QB Rating for scoring then.

Anyone care to look up Peyton Manning's QBR his rookie season? lol, cause I did. It was less than Manning's in '98 (71.2).

Using one rookie season with a poor Colts team to define Elite, while tossing in Wilson is ItS banging the pipe again.

Let's see how elite Wilson is with those crappy WRs.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

He has the talent. I've been reading the Indy posts and I'm not sure I see where, despite the expected change in offensive philosophy, the 3 B's (Bradshaw/Ballard/Brown) really generate enough to take the ball out of Luck's hands. I also see the Indy defense continuing to have issues personnel-wise. He's the kind of QB that could become elite and once he does in FF terms he will be very tough to acquire. He won't be Brees/Brady/Rodgers this year; who knows, but you have to get in early if he does get to that No. 4-6 level.

 

[Raider Nation]

Elite is Russell Wilson or RGIII.

If Irsay offered Luck to the Seahawks in exchange for Wilson, it would take Schneider less than one second to accept.

 

[JohnnyU]

Elite is Russell Wilson or RGIII.

If Irsay offered Luck to the Seahawks in exchange for Wilson, it would take Schneider less than one second to accept.

He would even throw in Harvin.

 

[joffer]

Yes, he's elite

 

[Bigboy10182000]

Elite talent now. Elite production to come.

 

[Raider Nation]

To answer the question, elite is a stupid term. How do you quantify it?

All I know is that Luck is everything you'd want in a young QB. Smart as hell, big, durable, loves the game, works hard, humble, great arm yet nice touch on the ball. The total package.

ETA: and his legs are an underrated asset. Not sure how much more you could want.

 

[drummer]

Luck was not an elite NFL QB last year. He was around the range of a below average to average starting QB.

He has a ton of hype coming off his college career which people are running away with, imo, as he wasn't much more productive than Ryan Tannenhill last year. ** In terms of helping his team win games, not fantasy wise.

This needs some more unpacking, because it's either a salient point, or just a whacked one.

 

[Bri]

Ridiculously high understanding of the game for a guy entering his 2nd year and a very nice arm. He's a prototype that seems like he's on his way-no probably not great in year two, in fact many QBs struggle in their 2nd year starting, but nonetheless he has as bright a future as possible.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

Luck was not an elite NFL QB last year. He was around the range of a below average to average starting QB.

He has a ton of hype coming off his college career which people are running away with, imo, as he wasn't much more productive than Ryan Tannenhill last year. ** In terms of helping his team win games, not fantasy wise.

This needs some more unpacking, because it's either a salient point, or just a whacked one.

Of players with at least 14 attempts per team's games played

Luck:

YPA: 6.98 (17th)

Completion %: 54.1 (31st)

Success Rate: 47.5 (16th)

Tannehill

YPA: 6.81 (22nd)

Completion %: 58.3 (23rd)

Success Rate: 46.0 (20th)

 

[FUBAR]

I have heard this a number of times here today. Got to say, it caught me a little off guard.

I don't see any justification for this sentiment. Good QB with great potential, who so far is good but pretty far from great, is how I see it.

Your thoughts? If you think he's elite, can you explain?

Elite is Russell Wilson or RGIII. For him to join his QB Classmates he needs to not turn the ball over like he did. Simply throwing for yards due to a large amount of passes isn't elite.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/quarterbackRating

http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr

He finished 26th in QB Raiting and 11th in QBR. Not elite.

Good thing my league doesn't use QB Rating for scoring then.

Anyone care to look up Peyton Manning's QBR his rookie season? lol, cause I did. It was less than Manning's in '98 (71.2).

Using one rookie season with a poor Colts team to define Elite, while tossing in Wilson is ItS banging the pipe again.

Let's see how elite Wilson is with those crappy WRs.

What crappy WRs?

 

[drummer]

Luck was not an elite NFL QB last year. He was around the range of a below average to average starting QB.

He has a ton of hype coming off his college career which people are running away with, imo, as he wasn't much more productive than Ryan Tannenhill last year. ** In terms of helping his team win games, not fantasy wise.

This needs some more unpacking, because it's either a salient point, or just a whacked one.

Of players with at least 14 attempts per team's games played

Luck:

YPA: 6.98 (17th)

Completion %: 54.1 (31st)

Success Rate: 47.5 (16th)

Tannehill

YPA: 6.81 (22nd)

Completion %: 58.3 (23rd)

Success Rate: 46.0 (20th)

Luck: 339 completions to 637 attempts for 4374 yards, 23 tds to 18 ints

Tannehill: 282 completions to 484 attempts for 3294 yards, 12 tds to 13 ints.

Luck: 41 sacks

Tannehill: 35 sacks

I guess these stats don't fit into your equations.

ETA: missed one more sack Tannehill took during the regular season

 

[Voice Of Reason]

Luck was not an elite NFL QB last year. He was around the range of a below average to average starting QB.

He has a ton of hype coming off his college career which people are running away with, imo, as he wasn't much more productive than Ryan Tannenhill last year. ** In terms of helping his team win games, not fantasy wise.

This needs some more unpacking, because it's either a salient point, or just a whacked one.

Of players with at least 14 attempts per team's games played

Luck:

YPA: 6.98 (17th)

Completion %: 54.1 (31st)

Success Rate: 47.5 (16th)

Tannehill

YPA: 6.81 (22nd)

Completion %: 58.3 (23rd)

Success Rate: 46.0 (20th)

Luck: 339 completions to 637 attempts for 4374 yards, 23 tds to 18 ints

Tannehill: 282 completions to 484 attempts for 3294 yards, 12 tds to 13 ints.

Luck: 41 sacks

Tannehill: 35 sacks

I guess these stats don't fit into your equations.

ETA: missed one more sack Tannehill took during the regular season

Those stats fit perfectly into my equations.

The sack rate is definitely something in Luck's favor that I overlooked (16th in NFL vs 21st for Miami.)

Basically Luck was a slightly more productive player on a per play basis, he just happened to throw a lot more.

 

[drummer]

Luck was not an elite NFL QB last year. He was around the range of a below average to average starting QB.

He has a ton of hype coming off his college career which people are running away with, imo, as he wasn't much more productive than Ryan Tannenhill last year. ** In terms of helping his team win games, not fantasy wise.

This needs some more unpacking, because it's either a salient point, or just a whacked one.

Of players with at least 14 attempts per team's games played

Luck:

YPA: 6.98 (17th)

Completion %: 54.1 (31st)

Success Rate: 47.5 (16th)

Tannehill

YPA: 6.81 (22nd)

Completion %: 58.3 (23rd)

Success Rate: 46.0 (20th)

Luck: 339 completions to 637 attempts for 4374 yards, 23 tds to 18 ints

Tannehill: 282 completions to 484 attempts for 3294 yards, 12 tds to 13 ints.

Luck: 41 sacks

Tannehill: 35 sacks

I guess these stats don't fit into your equations.

ETA: missed one more sack Tannehill took during the regular season

Those stats fit perfectly into my equations.

The sack rate is definitely something in Luck's favor that I overlooked (16th in NFL vs 21st for Miami.)

Basically Luck was a slightly more productive player on a per play basis, he just happened to throw a lot more.

Happening to throw a lot more might have to do with defense is in the ranked 21st in the league, as opposed to MIA being ranked 7th.

ETA: defensive ranks in PA.

 

[Koya]

Huh?

In what sense of the word? Seriously.

Great talent. Huge potential. Fantasy wise for sure, NFL as well.

But come on, it's NOT a question yet, or at least it should not be.

 

[drummer]

Huh?

In what sense of the word? Seriously.

Great talent. Huge potential. Fantasy wise for sure, NFL as well.

But come on, it's NOT a question yet, or at least it should not be.

Yeah, tossing the Elite word around for a player without at least 3 seasons under his belt is a bit much. But the possibility is greater than not.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

Luck was not an elite NFL QB last year. He was around the range of a below average to average starting QB.

He has a ton of hype coming off his college career which people are running away with, imo, as he wasn't much more productive than Ryan Tannenhill last year. ** In terms of helping his team win games, not fantasy wise.

This needs some more unpacking, because it's either a salient point, or just a whacked one.

Of players with at least 14 attempts per team's games played

Luck:

YPA: 6.98 (17th)

Completion %: 54.1 (31st)

Success Rate: 47.5 (16th)

Tannehill

YPA: 6.81 (22nd)

Completion %: 58.3 (23rd)

Success Rate: 46.0 (20th)

Luck: 339 completions to 637 attempts for 4374 yards, 23 tds to 18 ints

Tannehill: 282 completions to 484 attempts for 3294 yards, 12 tds to 13 ints.

Luck: 41 sacks

Tannehill: 35 sacks

I guess these stats don't fit into your equations.

ETA: missed one more sack Tannehill took during the regular season

Those stats fit perfectly into my equations.

The sack rate is definitely something in Luck's favor that I overlooked (16th in NFL vs 21st for Miami.)

Basically Luck was a slightly more productive player on a per play basis, he just happened to throw a lot more.

Happening to throw a lot more might have to do with defense is in the ranked 21st in the league, as opposed to MIA being ranked 7th.

ETA: defensive ranks in PA.

Regardless of the reason, him throwing more makes him much better for fantasy, but doesn't make him a better QB.

 

[Tau837]

I have heard this a number of times here today. Got to say, it caught me a little off guard.

I don't see any justification for this sentiment. Good QB with great potential, who so far is good but pretty far from great, is how I see it.

Your thoughts? If you think he's elite, can you explain?

Elite is Russell Wilson or RGIII. For him to join his QB Classmates he needs to not turn the ball over like he did. Simply throwing for yards due to a large amount of passes isn't elite.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/quarterbackRating

http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr

He finished 26th in QB Raiting and 11th in QBR. Not elite.

Good thing my league doesn't use QB Rating for scoring then.

Anyone care to look up Peyton Manning's QBR his rookie season? lol, cause I did. It was less than Manning's in '98 (71.2).

Using one rookie season with a poor Colts team to define Elite, while tossing in Wilson is ItS banging the pipe again.

Let's see how elite Wilson is with those crappy WRs.

Wilson will have the same WRs this season as last season.

 

[JetMaxx]

I have heard this a number of times here today. Got to say, it caught me a little off guard.

I don't see any justification for this sentiment. Good QB with great potential, who so far is good but pretty far from great, is how I see it.

Your thoughts? If you think he's elite, can you explain?

Elite is Russell Wilson or RGIII. For him to join his QB Classmates he needs to not turn the ball over like he did. Simply throwing for yards due to a large amount of passes isn't elite.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/quarterbackRating

http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr

He finished 26th in QB Raiting and 11th in QBR. Not elite.

Good thing my league doesn't use QB Rating for scoring then.

Anyone care to look up Peyton Manning's QBR his rookie season? lol, cause I did. It was less than Manning's in '98 (71.2).

Using one rookie season with a poor Colts team to define Elite, while tossing in Wilson is ItS banging the pipe again.

Let's see how elite Wilson is with those crappy WRs.

Wilson will have the same WRs this season as last season.

When he tied JohnnyU's fav/Peyton Manning's rookie record for TD passes.

 

[EBF]

He will get there. He's a prodigy and he has all of the mental/physical tools to be a perennial Pro Bowler.

In terms of the production, there are a lot of variables. Luck played on a bad team last season and threw the ball far more often than his fellow rookies, which probably goes a long way towards explaining why his efficiency stats didn't compare to guys like Wilson and Griffin. Stick either of those guys on an awful Colts team and force them to throw every down and they wouldn't have done any better. As Luck matures and as the supporting cast around him improves, he will only get better.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

He will get there. He's a prodigy and he has all of the mental/physical tools to be a perennial Pro Bowler.

In terms of the production, there are a lot of variables. Luck played on a bad team last season and threw the ball far more often than his fellow rookies, which probably goes a long way towards explaining why his efficiency stats didn't compare to guys like Wilson and Griffin. Stick either of those guys on an awful Colts team and force them to throw every down and they wouldn't have done any better. As Luck matures and as the supporting cast around him improves, he will only get better.

Did Wilson and Griffin have much better supporting casts on offense?

Is pass efficiency inversely related to passing volume?

 

[pizzatyme]

He will get there. He's a prodigy and he has all of the mental/physical tools to be a perennial Pro Bowler.

In terms of the production, there are a lot of variables. Luck played on a bad team last season and threw the ball far more often than his fellow rookies, which probably goes a long way towards explaining why his efficiency stats didn't compare to guys like Wilson and Griffin. Stick either of those guys on an awful Colts team and force them to throw every down and they wouldn't have done any better. As Luck matures and as the supporting cast around him improves, he will only get better.

Did Wilson and Griffin have much better supporting casts on offense?

Is pass efficiency inversely related to passing volume?

Luck- 11 wins

Tannehill 7 wins

I guess you think it was the Colts vaunted Defense and Special Teams that was more accountable for the wins? Or maybe the 4 rookies at the skill positions? (TY, Fleener, Allen, and Ballard)

When the NFL starts giving wins and losses for passer rating, you'll have a case. Until then...

 

[EBF]

Did Wilson and Griffin have much better supporting casts on offense?

Yes, absolutely. The main thing they had going for them that Luck did not was an exceptional running game. Washington and Seattle ranked first and third among all NFL teams in rushing yards. The Colts ranked 22nd. Luck basically carried the entire offense on his back, whereas Griffin and Wilson were able to lean on a strong ground game to reduce pressure on themselves. Part of the reason why Washington ranked first is because Griffin contributed so many yards himself, but take him out the equation entirely and the Skins still rank okay as a running team. Alfred Morris almost had more rushing yards than the entire Colts team on his own.

Is pass efficiency inversely related to passing volume?

I suspect so.

I think it would be difficult to prove with stats though. Good QBs tend to throw the ball a lot. When you have a QB like Peyton or Brees, you want to give him as many chances as possible to make plays. So the guys who rank among the league leaders in pass attempts are typically going to be some of the better QBs in football. Because they're some of the better QBs in football, they're also going to have good YPA numbers for the most part. Thus it's going to look like high attempts "cause" high YPA, when in reality those are just two symptoms of QB quality. Good QBs tend to have a high YPA. Good QBs tend to throw a lot. This does not mean that throwing a lot causes high YPA.

If you could run an experiment where you took the same QB with an identical supporting cast and schedule, and you made one copy of him throw the ball 40 times per game and the other copy of him throw the ball 25 times per game, I think you'd find that the low attempts version would have a higher YPA. The analogy that I've used in the past is a boxer who throws punches indiscriminately vs. a boxer who picks and chooses favorable spots to throw punches. Luck had to throw a lot last year by default because it was the only way the Colts could gain yards. Wilson and his coaches had the luxury of picking favorable spots because they also had a running game that could make plays. So while it looks like Wilson was more efficient than Luck, that might be because he was generally throwing in more favorable situations whereas Luck was just always throwing period. If Luck had been drafted by a team with a great running game and defense, you almost certainly would've seen a higher YPA average than what he did last year.

If you look at a lot of the standout YPA rookie QB seasons in recent memory (Roethlisberger, Ryan, Newton, Wilson, Griffin), none of those guys were in situations where they were asked to throw the ball 600+ times in a season. They were able to pick their punches and that probably played a big role in their numbers. Look at the pass attempts totals:

Luck - 627

Newton - 517

Ryan - 434

Griffin - 393

Wilson - 393

Roethlisberger - 295

This also helps illustrate why Tim Tebow's "good" 2011 season was so overrated. He averaged fewer than 20 pass attempts per game, yet still had a dismal YPA. Basically, they were doing everything possible to limit his responsibility and he still wasn't delivering.

What happened with Luck last year was something you rarely see. The team basically handed him the keys to the car from day one and said, "You're our best player. Go win the game." QBs usually grow into that role. Peyton had 575 attempts as a rookie, but he only averaged 6.50 YPA compared to 7.0 for Luck. He didn't have 600+ attempts in a season until he was 34 years old. Brady did it in his third NFL season (second as a starter), but was quite bad that year (6.26 YPA). Brees didn't hit 600+ attempts until his 7th year in the NFL and he only averaged 6.78 YPA that year.

When you put the numbers in this context, Luck in his first year on an awful team was playing at a level that took the game's best QBs several years to reach.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

I don't think you give Wilson and Griffin enough credit for making Seattle and Washington much better running teams.

Pass attempts and YPA have gone up considerably over recent years, so it is no surprise that very few rookies, if any, have thrown for 600+ attempts. I suspect Peyton's 6.5 YPA is probably ranks better among his peers in 1997 than Luck's 6.9 last year.

I still question whether passing efficiency goes down with attempts. It is often posited that running backs get better the more carries they get, why couldn't the same be true of QBs getting more attempts. Or perhaps QB efficiency stays the same. I know I see a similar argument made in the NBA often that a low minute per game, highly efficient player will likely lose his efficiency if he has to play more minutes. However, the numbers actually point to the opposite, that the player becomes more efficient with increased time in the game.

 

[TheLurkerBelow]

I loosely define elite as a top 5 NFL QB. Top 5 at what? Well, that's where the "loosely" comes in. I would say "Top 5 if I had to put an NFL team together right now that only plays for this one season". Who would your top 5 QBs be if you wanted to win in 2013? I really like Luck, but I don't know that's he's a top five NFL QB right now. He's got the potential to be there, but I wouldn't choose him over Brees, Rogers, Brady, Peyton, or Matt Ryan.

Now, if you said, "Top five QBs to start a team that plays for the next decade" then I think Luck makes it. But we're talking elite right now so I think he's still got something to prove.

 

[Ghost Rider]

He will get there. He's a prodigy and he has all of the mental/physical tools to be a perennial Pro Bowler.

In terms of the production, there are a lot of variables. Luck played on a bad team last season and threw the ball far more often than his fellow rookies, which probably goes a long way towards explaining why his efficiency stats didn't compare to guys like Wilson and Griffin. Stick either of those guys on an awful Colts team and force them to throw every down and they wouldn't have done any better. As Luck matures and as the supporting cast around him improves, he will only get better.

Did Wilson and Griffin have much better supporting casts on offense?

Is pass efficiency inversely related to passing volume?

Luck- 11 wins

Tannehill 7 wins

I guess you think it was the Colts vaunted Defense and Special Teams that was more accountable for the wins? Or maybe the 4 rookies at the skill positions? (TY, Fleener, Allen, and Ballard)

When the NFL starts giving wins and losses for passer rating, you'll have a case. Until then...

Wins are team stats, not player stats. Also, the Colts defense may not have been that great, but they did hold their opponents to under 20 points or less in eight of their 11 wins, so there is that.

Anyway, to answer the question, no, Luck is certainly not elite yet, but he probably will be before long. He just isn't yet. And anyone saying he is already needs to have their head checked.

 

[drummer]

Luck was not an elite NFL QB last year. He was around the range of a below average to average starting QB.

He has a ton of hype coming off his college career which people are running away with, imo, as he wasn't much more productive than Ryan Tannenhill last year. ** In terms of helping his team win games, not fantasy wise.

This needs some more unpacking, because it's either a salient point, or just a whacked one.

Of players with at least 14 attempts per team's games played

Luck:

YPA: 6.98 (17th)

Completion %: 54.1 (31st)

Success Rate: 47.5 (16th)

Tannehill

YPA: 6.81 (22nd)

Completion %: 58.3 (23rd)

Success Rate: 46.0 (20th)

Luck: 339 completions to 637 attempts for 4374 yards, 23 tds to 18 ints

Tannehill: 282 completions to 484 attempts for 3294 yards, 12 tds to 13 ints.

Luck: 41 sacks

Tannehill: 35 sacks

I guess these stats don't fit into your equations.

ETA: missed one more sack Tannehill took during the regular season

Those stats fit perfectly into my equations.

The sack rate is definitely something in Luck's favor that I overlooked (16th in NFL vs 21st for Miami.)

Basically Luck was a slightly more productive player on a per play basis, he just happened to throw a lot more.

Happening to throw a lot more might have to do with defense is in the ranked 21st in the league, as opposed to MIA being ranked 7th.

ETA: defensive ranks in PA.

Regardless of the reason, him throwing more makes him much better for fantasy, but doesn't make him a better QB.

I'm not talking FF. If you believe Tannehill is better, fine. I just don't see anything you have posted that makes one QB better than the other.

 

[drummer]

He will get there. He's a prodigy and he has all of the mental/physical tools to be a perennial Pro Bowler.

In terms of the production, there are a lot of variables. Luck played on a bad team last season and threw the ball far more often than his fellow rookies, which probably goes a long way towards explaining why his efficiency stats didn't compare to guys like Wilson and Griffin. Stick either of those guys on an awful Colts team and force them to throw every down and they wouldn't have done any better. As Luck matures and as the supporting cast around him improves, he will only get better.

Did Wilson and Griffin have much better supporting casts on offense?

Is pass efficiency inversely related to passing volume?

Luck- 11 wins

Tannehill 7 wins

I guess you think it was the Colts vaunted Defense and Special Teams that was more accountable for the wins? Or maybe the 4 rookies at the skill positions? (TY, Fleener, Allen, and Ballard)

When the NFL starts giving wins and losses for passer rating, you'll have a case. Until then...

Wins are team stats, not player stats. Also, the Colts defense may not have been that great, but they did hold their opponents to under 20 points or less in eight of their 11 wins, so there is that.

Anyway, to answer the question, no, Luck is certainly not elite yet, but he probably will be before long. He just isn't yet. And anyone saying he is already needs to have their head checked.

Team wins really are based on the makeup of that team. How many wins would the Colts have with a another Vet QB who isn't already an established elite one in 2012? Would Rex Grossman starting 16 games with the same team Luck had get them to 11-5?

ETA: the Colts also had a HUGE part of their season without Pagano. They now have made a real smart move in getting Hamilton as OC. Bruce Arians did a helluva job in Indy, yet the Colts did not lose in either way because they have a legit franchise QB who really did have an impact as a field general.

Team game? Franchise QB's make a lesser team better. It's not whether Luck puts up "Elite" numbers in today's NFL offenses like Matt Stafford has the past two seasons, where Stafford may even eclipse the 800 attempt number which is insane. IMO Luck attempts will be less with Hamilton as OC, but with a greater percentage regardless of the makeup and progression of where the Colts FO is building around him.

Ultimately stats don't really reflect Elite or Team. Advanced statistical metrics will always have the basic fundamental base mathematics of the effectiveness of blocking and tackling. If every team had the same quality in the trenches in both offense as well as defense where football plays really start, then you would may not need a franchise QB.

QB's matter in today's football. Everything in the game is skewed towards QB play. You may have a team where even Terry Bradshaw can win in this modern era, but it's still a QB driven league.

 

[UKColt]

He will get there. He's a prodigy and he has all of the mental/physical tools to be a perennial Pro Bowler.

In terms of the production, there are a lot of variables. Luck played on a bad team last season and threw the ball far more often than his fellow rookies, which probably goes a long way towards explaining why his efficiency stats didn't compare to guys like Wilson and Griffin. Stick either of those guys on an awful Colts team and force them to throw every down and they wouldn't have done any better. As Luck matures and as the supporting cast around him improves, he will only get better.

Did Wilson and Griffin have much better supporting casts on offense?

Is pass efficiency inversely related to passing volume?

Yes, of course they did.

Seattle - Elite RB, better OL and a top 5 D.

Washington - Better receiver group, much better OL and a better D.

There is alot of revisionism that goes on with Luck and the Colts offense because of how damn good he made them look. Go back 12 months and there was a genuine worry that the OL would get him killed and he had no one outside Reggie to throw to.

There is also the fact, and I remember Cecil talking about this on The Audible once, that Luck was asked to do far more in that offense than RG3 or Wilson did in SEA/WAS. Air Arians is a complex offense for any QB, but for a rookie to have as much success as he did in it is frankly astounding. I still remember a story from rookie minicamp last year, when Luck got to the line and didn't like what he saw across from him. He called out a new protection and the coaches had to call the play dead because the rest of the rookies had no idea what he was talking about. The protection he'd called was way ahead of where every one else was in the playbook.

None of this is a knock on RG3 or Wilson as they are both superb QB talents, and I'd be delighted to have either of them as the Colts QB but if you gave me the choice of the 3 of them, it's Luck every time and I suspect most of the NFL teams would go the same way.

He's not elite now, because you can't crown anyone elite after one season, but I've got every confidence that he'll be a top 5 NFL QB for the next 10 years.

 

[drummer]

He will get there. He's a prodigy and he has all of the mental/physical tools to be a perennial Pro Bowler.

In terms of the production, there are a lot of variables. Luck played on a bad team last season and threw the ball far more often than his fellow rookies, which probably goes a long way towards explaining why his efficiency stats didn't compare to guys like Wilson and Griffin. Stick either of those guys on an awful Colts team and force them to throw every down and they wouldn't have done any better. As Luck matures and as the supporting cast around him improves, he will only get better.

Did Wilson and Griffin have much better supporting casts on offense?

Is pass efficiency inversely related to passing volume?

Yes, of course they did.

Seattle - Elite RB, better OL and a top 5 D.

Washington - Better receiver group, much better OL and a better D.

There is alot of revisionism that goes on with Luck and the Colts offense because of how damn good he made them look. Go back 12 months and there was a genuine worry that the OL would get him killed and he had no one outside Reggie to throw to.

There is also the fact, and I remember Cecil talking about this on The Audible once, that Luck was asked to do far more in that offense than RG3 or Wilson did in SEA/WAS. Air Arians is a complex offense for any QB, but for a rookie to have as much success as he did in it is frankly astounding. I still remember a story from rookie minicamp last year, when Luck got to the line and didn't like what he saw across from him. He called out a new protection and the coaches had to call the play dead because the rest of the rookies had no idea what he was talking about. The protection he'd called was way ahead of where every one else was in the playbook.

None of this is a knock on RG3 or Wilson as they are both superb QB talents, and I'd be delighted to have either of them as the Colts QB but if you gave me the choice of the 3 of them, it's Luck every time and I suspect most of the NFL teams would go the same way.

He's not elite now, because you can't crown anyone elite after one season, but I've got every confidence that he'll be a top 5 NFL QB for the next 10 years.

Luck hasn't had many games to where he can prove amongst the established in a career, because he hasn't played that many games. Yet at the same time, Jim Harbaugh, Luck's ex coach, called Alex Smith "Elite" after his first season with him. Matt Maiocco, the 49ers Beat lapdog tried to qualify that statement, not even qualifying Smith's only second full 16 game season since 2006.

Luck with the same team that Smith had in 2011 would have had even greater success percentages as a rookie than what Smith will ever post in his entire career. The reason why is because Luck can transcend an offense, especially one he is familiar with, and you can add more within the offense. The 49ers have invested big in both trenches, yet have very little depth in skill positions. Colin Kaepernick within the 49er offense is a better QB than Smith in any other offense, period. Luck would be better than both of them with the same team.

 

[Biabreakable]

I would rather be lucky than good.

I am not sure if passing efficiency increases or decreases based on the number of passing attempts. That is an interesting question.

Here are a couple articles I was reading trying to find an answer to that question-

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/01/run-pass-balance-historical-analysis.html

http://www.thevictoryformation.com/2012/09/17/the-nfl-is-a-passing-league-the-statistics-prove-it-and-the-rules-mandate-it/

Interesting stuff, although not really an answer to the hypothesis presented by EBF

I tend to think that an effective running game with play action really helps a QB make easier throws. As does the read option or so I have heard many say. I think that makes sense as well. But I do not know if stats back that up or not.

At least in regards to the yards/attempt for luck of 7. That is higher than the league average of 6.5 according to this- http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/369921/CMP_YPA.jpg

A larger sample size is more reliable than a smaller one in regards to all the 1st year QBs.

 

[Man of Zen]

To answer the question, elite is a stupid term. How do you quantify it?

With your own subjective criteria. Which may be stupid, or may not, depending how you choose.

 

[Man of Zen]

When you put the numbers in this context, Luck in his first year on an awful team was playing at a level that took the game's best QBs several years to reach.

I think rather that you have to take the numbers almost entirely out of context to reach the conclusion that Luck was playing at a level unreached by the game's truly elite till later in their careers.

The context says that in the modern NFL, other rookies were putting up 8 and 8+ YPA. The game's elite established QB's were putting up YPA's in the same vicinity. You wouldn't say Brandon Weeden's 6.55 put him on track to one day join the Bradys and the Mannings given last year's reality, but the number, taken out of context and compared with the ones you cited above certainly puts him in the discussion.

Luck's actual YPA in the context of the NFL in 2012 wasn't particularly impressive, even for a rookie. The game changes. Far more damning, of course, was that his downfield numbers in terms of completion, rating, and TD:INT ratio were quite poor.

He certainly was playing with weapons (or a lack thereof) that I feel put him at a disadvantage compared to the game's elite QB's and other statistically impressive rookie performers. That may well be a justification for why he was unable to produce in a way that was elite, but it's certainly not justification to call him elite, IMO.