Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals

Player Page Link: Andy Dalton Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[mlball77]

I think Dalton can probably improve on last year a bit with a full offseason to dial-in the nuances of the CIN offense and really work with his receivers. Yet despite this, I'm not sure the Bengals have all of the necessary pieces and development at this point needed to blossom into a special offense. It seems like they could be moving in that direction (Green, Gresham, etc.), but I'm just not sold that they have made enough strides on that front yet. The potential is there though.

Attempts: 530

Completions: 315

Pass Yds: 3610

Pass TDs: 22

Pass INTs: 12

Rush Yds: 125

Rush TDs: 1

 

[Fantasy Dealer]

I'll be watching this one. I'm thinking of keeping this guy as an 18th rd pick this year which will allow me to keep him for the next 5yrs.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

With the AJ Green Spotlight and the Year 2 Julio vs. AJ debate, this seemed a good time to bump the Andy Dalton Spotlight because expectations and comparisons to Julio Jones.

Dalton had a much better than expected rookie year insofar as he didnt fall on his face. While recently, some prized Top 5 picks have had some recent rookie year success, the idea that a 2nd round choice could come in and play competently was untested. So Dalton leading the Bengals to the playoffs could be construed and nothing else but a huge success. Statistically speaking though, Dalton was ordinary…passing for a shade under 3400 yards in an NFL where 4000 yards has become commonplace seems less impressive from a fantasy perspective than ever before. In 2011, passing yardage overall was up 14% than it was in 2008, and Ryan was able to able to compile his similar yardage totals with 82 fewer pass attempts.

Indeed, Daltons biggest contribution to fantasy rosters will be how he affects AJ Green. Green was everything he was advertised to be his rookie year and is a bonafide #1 WR. But behind Green, the Bengals didnt provide him with much and quite frankly, the roster currently seems devoid of a clear #2 target much less WR. The RB, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, that was brought in to replace 2009-2011 RB1, Cedric Benson, seems even less a threat to provide much support in the passing game. And in 2011, when the Bengals were forced to throw to someone else other than AJ Green, it produced a Joey Harrington-esque 5.85 YPA. And his 6.56 overall figure has to be stepped up regardless because I dont see the Bengals becoming a pass first team yet.

This is not to say that Dalton is or has maxed out…but I do feel that Greens ceiling is limited so long as the Bengals fail to establish complimentary weapons in the passing game and I'm a bear on Dalton for 2012. Last year, they were able to get by in large part because they played a dilapidated AFC South & NFC West (a combined 56-72 record in 2011; this year, they have the AFC West & NFC East). They were not able to make the Bengals pay for their lack of diversity on offense and as such, the Bengals were able to compile a 6-2 record against this part of their schedule.

If Im projecting out Dalton for 2012, I think his match-ups look more difficult in that these teams have the talent and personnel more likely to take away Daltons deep threat and safety blanket (Green & Green) more consistently. How Dalton is able to incorporate and exploit other components of his offense will be the barometer of success in CIN and quite franlkly, I think the Bengals talent there is not sufficient enough to compensate yet. So while I'm not buying in 2012 and…I can certainly be proven wrong, I won't be spending picks on any Bengals probably this year (with the possible exception of Gresham who falls under flier status).

Prediction: 287 Completions, 525 Attempts, 3147 Passing Yards; 18 TDs 17 INTs.

 

[Sabertooth]

3500 yards

23 touchdowns

16 picks

Solid number, nothing spectacular but a nice backup/flex option. They are building some nice dynasty talent around him for sure. I think Law Firm is better then Cedric Benson for Dalton too. He has nice options in Green and Gresham.

 

[lbouchard]

I project a across the board improvement in his 2nd year and first with a full offseason.

3,575 yards, 25 TDs, 11 picks

 

[Sabertooth]

I really like him in a Superflex as a flex option this year. I think he improves too. He's got the best young weapon in the NFL for his WR.

 

[Andrew Garda]

Bump cause I'm working on this now - any more thoughts on Andy Dalton?

 

[Hedgehog]

Guy deserves to have some love - WW in my leagues and he is currently top 5 after 2 monster games....I havent watched that close so anyone with some insight? Has some good weapons at WR/TE and a decent running game....should be a solid backup at least but usually a QB or 2 come out of nowhere to be top 10...any chance this guy can do it?

 

[Nucker101]

He shouldn't be on the WW in any leagues at this point, his upcoming schedule(JAX, MIA, CLE) is very solid. Could be a nice pickup for those that have struggling QB's. If he performs well during that stretch he might even have some decent trade value.

 

[Tango]

If the weather looks good, I'll carefully consider Dalton over Newton this week.

 

[Rev. Jim]

Dalton's trade value is pretty high in my dynasty league right now. Got an offer of a first rounder (probably late in the round) for Dalton, straight up. I've got decent depth at QB, so I'm probably going to take the offer.

 

[Timmay]

Dalton isnt getting enough credit this year. If he can stay healthy i think he will easily put up top 15 numbers and could possibly be top 10 at seasons end. He has the weapons on offense. Green is a freak, Hawkins is a great slot guy, and Gresham is a big target for him with good hands. Plus with BJGE it gives him a back that he can check down too, Benson didnt have the best of hands. In Dalton's 2nd year in the league, he is getting accustomed to Jay Gruden's offense. Plus the Bengals defense is pretty pitiful this year, so it is going to create a lot more chances for Dalton to throw. Im all-in on him.