Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Im considering using Michael Turner as my flex option in Zealots over Foster or Mike Bell was wondering if anyone else is doing the same in leagues that allow flex play?
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Anybody else considering MTurner... (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Bojang0301
- Start date
Aussie Cowboy
Footballguy
I'm starting him as my flex in Z28 over Mike Bell.
Pedro Cerrano Fan
Footballguy
Strongly considering it....
Brassmonkey71
Footballguy
I have Maroney and Turner...going with Maroney over M. Bell!! Hope he gets 17 carries again!!!
SSOG
Moderator
I'd start Maroney over MBell, but Turner? No way. I don't start guys who MIGHT MAYBE POSSIBLY get 5-10 carries if the game is an absolute blowout. Not if I have any other option at all.
This is a good question for me as I have LT and Turner. I expect the game to mirror SD @ OAK with Turner possibly picking up a TD in garbage time.
Looking at San Diego's schedule, I see that they have a bye in week 3. Therefor, Tomlinson can probably work as long as he is needed against the Titans.
Maroney is a possibility for me too. I'll may go with him over Turner.
Looking at San Diego's schedule, I see that they have a bye in week 3. Therefor, Tomlinson can probably work as long as he is needed against the Titans.
Maroney is a possibility for me too. I'll may go with him over Turner.
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...0&hl=turner
Here is another decent thread discussing the same conundrum.
Here is another decent thread discussing the same conundrum.
MeVsMaradona
Footballguy
Friggin idiots
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
After reading through both threads I like SSOG's stand point. It's impossible to predict this situation and while the Titans D looks like it might not hold up it could. I know DFoster and MBell are going to get at least 12-15 touches so I will not be inclined to start Turner this week, FWIW.
As for this guy... well we chalk one up for the guys who come around for about 12 weeks then leave once there team hits rock bottom... I'll see you on my ignore list.
faulkfan
Footballguy
Flex nothing...I'm putting him in as a starter this week over Lamont Jordan
el-gato-grande
Footballguy
el-gato-grande
Footballguy
MT will get his carries unless the Bolts are coming from behind. And I don't think that will be the case this week. Do you believe Marty will run LT 40 times per game with MT sitting on the bench? Doesn't make a lot of sense when you have two runningbacks of that caliber.
SSOG
Moderator
San Diego only rushed 40+ times TWICE last season, and now you're predicting them to hit that mark twice in the first two weeks? Even further, they only rushed 35+ times FIVE times all season long. They had under 30 carries nine times (over 50% of the time).Let's take this even further. Here's a breakdown week-by-week of how many total carries the team had, how many carries Michael Turner had, and how many carries Lorenzo Neal had (in that order).26/2/324/1/333/7/240/11/021/0/141/7/120/0/222/0/335/4/334/8/028/0/138/7/327/1/237/8/420/0/120/1/0Michael Turner never had more than a single carry in a game where San Diego ran 30 times or less (something they did in 9 of 16 games last year). That's right, a whopping 56% of the time, Michael Turner had one carry or less. Turner had three games all of last season worth 6 fantasy points or more- not coincidentally, these were also the 3 games where he managed a TD.Conclusions? Odds are that Michael Turner doesn't get more than a single touch all game next week. Even if he does get multiple touches, he will have to share them with Lorenzo Neal. Even if he does manage to get lots of touches, he's looking at a CEILING of 8 runs here. Even if he does hit his ceiling, he's not going to have ANY fantasy value unless he scores a TD, too.Basically, you have to hope for (a) San Diego to run a bunch, (b) Lorenzo Neal to not eat too many carries, © Turner to hit his 8 carry ceiling, and (d) Turner to score a TD. At this point, you'd be better off starting T.J. Duckett than Michael Turner. Or why not start Maurice Morris on the off chance that Shaun Alexander gets hurt? Michael Turner should not be viewed as anything more than a desperation play, plain and simple.People are talking about starting Turner over Kevin Jones or Thomas Jones or Willis McGahee. That's just LUDICROUS. People, I would put the odds at better than 50% that Michael Turner puts up a big fat 0 this week! Kevin Jones was an absolute unmitigated disaster last season. He averaged 51 yards rushing per game (59 total yards). That was a bust of epic proportions. You know what, though? Guess how many times last season Michael Turner had more than 51 yards rushing. Go ahead, guess.Once. Michael Turner rushed for 51+ yards ONCE last season. Michael Turner had a better week than the average week of the biggest bust of the entire season only ONCE last year. And even that was only the result of an 83 yard TD run (the rest of the game, he went 7/30/0). In other words, unless you are PREDICTING that Michael Turner will break an 83 yard TD in the practically nonexistant carries he'll be getting, no way should he start above Kevin Jones.Let's say you want to start him hoping for a TD plunge. Well, you're screwed there, too. Turner scored 3 TDs in 16 games, compared to Kevin Jones' 5 TDs in 13 games. Compare him to McGahee or Droughns or Thomas Jones or anyone else and the comparisons only get more ludicrous.This is mad, people. Step away from the ledge. Please, please, step away from the ledge.
-OZ-
Footballguy
First, good post.Second, relax. You refer to my post with the players you list, and I clearly stated that Turner is on my bench. All I'm saying is San Diego should have a nice lead, and won't want to use LT two weeks in a row more than they did last year. How many times did LT get more than 30 carries two weeks in a row? Using your stats or NFL.com, LT never ran 30 times 2 weeks in a row. In fact, he only ran 30+ times once last year. Is it that difficult to imagine Marty limiting his carries after getting a good lead over a bad team?You're right to say starting him is a gamble, but if a team lacks another good option, he could pay off.
el-gato-grande
Footballguy
In some cases, historical information is useful to gauge future performance. But, in this particular instance, you are ignoring a glaring difference in the Chargers offense this year over last year - they basically have a rookie at QB. Marty was willing to let Rivers air it out during the pre-season when the games didn't count and with LT on the bench. Everyone got all excited about his potential. But, at the same time, people were ignoring comments by the coaching staff and Rivers himself that they were coming up with ways for Turner to share the load at RB. A clear sign that they were planning to run the ball more when the regular season started and LT joined the fray. So, if we go on the only historical record we have for this years offense, it looks as if the Chargers will return to "Marty Ball" and pound the rock. Less balance, but it plays to their strength. Think about the 2004 Steelers with Roethlisberger at the helm (except with better running backs) and you will have the roadmap for the Chargers this year. Granted - we only have one game to measure the validity of this. And I will grant you that isn't much to go on. That is why I am reserving MT for one more game or maybe two until I'm sure that I am correct on this. I think he should be on everyone's "watch list" at this point. And maybe a flex starter in large leagues if you lack depth and want to roll the dice.
SSOG
Moderator
How many times did the Chargers as a team run for 30+ carries in back-to-back games? Just twice all season. Everyone's acting like it's a foregone conclusion that there will be enough touches for Turner to get a couple. It's not, and even if it is, he still needs to do something with them. Turner would need to average probably twice as many yards per carry to have comparable value to a low-end workhorse RB (such as Droughns or the Joneses), because the odds are better that those guys get 20 carries than they are that Turner gets 10. Are you willing to bet on Turner averaging 8 yards per carry? Are you willing to bet that Turner's more likely to get a TD in 10 carries than those guys are in 20?-OZ- said:
broncofan13000
Footballguy
Last year was alot different. First their schedule last year didn't give them two cake walk teams (with all due respect to OAK and TENN) in a row to have 30+ attempts against. Also with Rivers as QB, its expected that the Chargers will run the ball more. IMHO there is a very real chance that San Diego runs for 30+ attempts this week. With that said, i still agree with you that Turner is too risky of a start.
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-OZ-
Footballguy
Just me, but I'd start Turner over Droughns this week. Cincinati kept Larry Johnson to 68 yards rushing, although he did get good receiving yards. I don't see Droughns getting those receptions. Call it a bad week for LJ, due in part to injury, but I won't expect better stats from Droughns. KJones vs. Chicago? Tough matchup, although Ahman did net 110 yards.TJones vs. Detroit? Alexander got 51 yards vs. the Lions. Now, I'm not going to say the lesser RBs definetly won't produce better than the elite RBs, it does happen, but those aren't great matchups for those RBs. The key here is San Diego is playing the Titans. If you see this as a close game, you're alone in that. You can make the stats back your point, but that only works if you're willing to make 2 assumptions. (1) Their gameplan with Rivers is the same as it was with Brees. (2) They'll need to throw and play LT against Tennessee. I'm personally not starting Turner (unless you count our subscriber contest), while I am starting LT in 2 leagues. So I hope I'm wrong here, but I see LT getting carries in the low 20s, while Turner gets 8-12. And yes, in those 8-12 carries, I see a 6 ypg average and a TD.
shamrock84
Footballguy
No. But mostly because I don't have him on my team.
MeVsMaradona
Footballguy
RoarinSonoran
Footballguy
Almost halftime, and he has two carries for 2yds, with a long carry of 4yds, plus a catch for 12. 
ETA: 4 for 27 with a long of 22.
ETA: 4 for 27 with a long of 22.
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my man otis
Footballguy
phrozen
Footballguy
Dr. van Nostrand
4 8 15 16 23 42
Aussie Cowboy
Footballguy
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
Kleck.
Footballguy
155 vs. 35It took some guts and paid off.
el-gato-grande
Footballguy
I guess SSOG's runningback and team knowledge doesn't extend past the Rockies. 
AhrnCityPahnder
Yinz-o-riffic
MeVsMaradona
Footballguy
Indeed, i was made a fool of. However almost all of his yards came on 3 carries. If the Chargers keep playing bush league teams and Turner can get 10+ carries then great. But most of the time they wont play scrubs and most of the time Turner wont get you more then 5 pts with his 10 carries.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Forseeing the blowout and Turner carries is what this is all about
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
el-gato-grande said:I guess SSOG's runningback and team knowledge doesn't extend past the Rockies.
Not happy with him after Dayne analysis and listening this week.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Which is why this thread was posted this week and not every other week of the year. That's exactly the point..MeVsMaradona said:Indeed, i was made a fool of. However almost all of his yards came on 3 carries. If the Chargers keep playing bush league teams and Turner can get 10+ carries then great. But most of the time they wont play scrubs and most of the time Turner wont get you more then 5 pts with his 10 carries.Dr. van Nostrand said:MeVsMaradona said:
Bluestaples
Footballguy
Which is why this thread was posted this week and not every other week of the year. That's exactly the point..MeVsMaradona said:Indeed, i was made a fool of. However almost all of his yards came on 3 carries. If the Chargers keep playing bush league teams and Turner can get 10+ carries then great. But most of the time they wont play scrubs and most of the time Turner wont get you more then 5 pts with his 10 carries.Dr. van Nostrand said:MeVsMaradona said:
If your suggesting Turner only excelles against bad defenses then you have a lot to learn. Hes far more then just a big play back, and he can compete with anyone when given the chance.MeVsMaradona said:Indeed, i was made a fool of. However almost all of his yards came on 3 carries. If the Chargers keep playing bush league teams and Turner can get 10+ carries then great. But most of the time they wont play scrubs and most of the time Turner wont get you more then 5 pts with his 10 carries.Dr. van Nostrand said:MeVsMaradona said:
MeVsMaradona
Footballguy
I think some people were thinking about him going foward too. Forseeing a 70m yard run is hard to do. I was wrong in saying that Turner was not a good flex guy THIS week. Congrats to those who started himWhich is why this thread was posted this week and not every other week of the year. That's exactly the point..MeVsMaradona said:Indeed, i was made a fool of. However almost all of his yards came on 3 carries. If the Chargers keep playing bush league teams and Turner can get 10+ carries then great. But most of the time they wont play scrubs and most of the time Turner wont get you more then 5 pts with his 10 carries.Dr. van Nostrand said:MeVsMaradona said:
Bluestaples
Footballguy
I was wrong in saying that Turner was not a good flex guy THIS week. Congrats to those who started him
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