Anyone else singing the Lineup Blues this season? (4 Viewers)

[sushinsky4tsar]

I had to do the math to make sure I'm as terrible at setting lineups this year as it feels like. It's definitely not in my head. My performance has been truly putrid, particularly at the WR position:


Waddle: 11.56 season avg, My 4 starts = 9.2
Higgins: 11.59 avg, My 3 starts = 6.63
AJB: 9.19 avg, My 3 starts = 7.63
Tetairoa: 11.44 avg, My 5 starts = 10.98
Egbuka: 13.31 avg, My 7 starts = 13.17
Lamb: I'm safe, every week start

Jeanty: 13.31 avg, My 8 starts = 12.8
Judkins: 11.78 avg, My 5 starts = 11.2
Vidal: 8.86 avg, My 1 start = 3
CMC: I'm safe, every week start

Mahomes: 24.6 avg, My 7 starts 25.14
Maye: 22.8 avg, My 4 starts 23.23


I should have the advantage of utilizing great depth and weekly options that allow me to flex on attractive matchups while sitting out potential pitfalls. QB is the only position where it's going to plan. I have somehow managed to extract less points than the season average for EVERY RB and WR that factors into my starting lineup decisions. In some cases, substantially less for Waddle, Higgins, and AJB. Timing Waddle and Higgins production has been a perpetual problem for me that goes back years.

I feel like I've been pretty vanilla on methodology. I used to do a lot more podcasting with guys like Charchian breaking down all the matchups. I have had a lot less time for that and definitely felt like the results were mixed or neutral even when I went to that effort. I tend to look at fantasy points allowed by position for the defenses that my highest scoring players are going against. I know that's not the most nuanced, but if it looks okay or good for my highest scorers, and I can see some potential for a shootout, I will check that against the consensus rankings on fantasypros and their recommended lineup generally agrees with what I'm thinking. Occasionally, I will change it up and go with gut instinct on guys that are relatively close in the rankings. You can imagine how those gambles have worked out. Get burned. Which scares me off from making the executive decision the following week that would have benefitted me. With that said, I generally keep it vanilla, not skewing greatly from fantasypros "expert consensus".

I know this isn't a huge sample size and things eventually regress to the mean. But the results have been truly abysmal 11 weeks into the season. Is there any one analyst or app you're using in 2025 that's actually getting you to the right place on more of these decisions than throwing a dart? Throwing a dart could only help my cause compared to what I've been doing. And yes, I'm definitely ready for a best ball league to get away from always making the wrong call.

 

[Gally]

this year? Seems like my lineup efficiency is always round 70%. Either my roosters are too good that everything is a coin flip or I don't know what I am doing. Could be either one.

 

[Marauder]

I've started using the George Costanza method. Whenever I have a close call between two players, I decide which is best based on the matchups, all the expert opinions, etc. then I do the opposite. That seems to work better for me.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

I've started using the George Costanza method. Whenever I have a close call between two players, I decide which is best based on the matchups, all the expert opinions, etc. then I do the opposite. That seems to work better for me.

Yes, I've been here and might be ready to re-institute The Constanza. It almost makes me wonder if there's something to the fact that if a matchup looks juicy on paper to some rube playing fantasy, you can bet the defensive coordinator is equally concerned and provides that much more help. So maybe the play is looking for the most mediocre matchup and not targeting the defense giving up the second most fantasy points to opposing WRs?

I definitely look at Vegas implied projected score at playoff time and maybe I need to bring more of that into my regular season picks.

 

[JohnnyU]

 

[zamboni]

With all the injuries (which really happen every year), I can definitely see the few best ball aficionados in my league pounding the table this offseason. I’d fold my league before we went that way though - takes all the guesswork and intuition out.

 

[the moops]

Waddle: 11.56 season avg, My 4 starts = 9.2
Higgins: 11.59 avg, My 3 starts = 6.63
AJB: 9.19 avg, My 3 starts = 7.63
Tetairoa: 11.44 avg, My 5 starts = 10.98
Egbuka: 13.31 avg, My 7 starts = 13.17
Lamb: I'm safe, every week start

Jeanty: 13.31 avg, My 8 starts = 12.8
Judkins: 11.78 avg, My 5 starts = 11.2
Vidal: 8.86 avg, My 1 start = 3
CMC: I'm safe, every week start

Mahomes: 24.6 avg, My 7 starts 25.14
Maye: 22.8 avg, My 4 starts 23.23

Maybe have a ****tier team and you wouldn't have so many decisions.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

this year? Seems like my lineup efficiency is always round 70%. Either my roosters are too good that everything is a coin flip or I don't know what I am doing. Could be either one.

I'm ringing in at 78% and I'm surprised it's that good, but it's still among the worst. The worst team in our league that's low-key tanking is at 71%.

I feel like efficiency is mostly overrated in dynasty since it can just be a sign of good depth. I like it better in redraft leagues.

What isn't a fluke is figuring out a way to get less points from every single RB and WR when starting them than their season average. I wouldn't be able to come close to replicating that if I was trying to do it.


I truly believe Waddle and Higgins are among the worst players you can have for trying to capture points in a given week. Your only defense is considering them set it and forget it starters and just rolling with the down weeks. I also think Jameson Williams would probably be high on this list.

AJ Brown, I'm not even going to consider starting the rest of the way unless it's an exceptionally "squeaky wheel" week.

 

[BlackCrowes]

WRs are tough this year. i've got a lot of good/not elite ones. Trying to pick the right ones each week is infuriating. And trying to upgrade to an elite one is tough.

 

[BLOCKED_PUNT]

my efficiency is sitting at 85.1

 

[Gally]

I truly believe Waddle and Higgins are among the worst players you can have for trying to capture points in a given week. Your only defense is considering them set it and forget it starters and just rolling with the down weeks. I also think Jameson Williams would probably be high on this list.

I have all three guys. I have been ok at it but this week was not ideal. I also have Egbuka and played Egbuka and Waddle and had Higgins and Jamo on the bench. 0-2 on that lineup decision.

 

[Gally]

I feel like efficiency is mostly overrated in dynasty since it can just be a sign of good depth. I like it better in redraft leagues.

I agree. I am always in the lower middle of the pack but my Potential Points is always one of the highest. I have a really deep bench so am always beating my head against a wall. I see other team that have a near perfect efficiency but they have no lineup decisions as there bench doesn't score at all. Those teams usually in the middle to bottom of the pack as one or two injuries for a few weeks and they can't score. I am actually better off sometimes when my players are ruled out. I can't make a bad lineup decision that way.

 

[Lehigh98]

This is why I only play best ball.

 

[Joe Bryant]

One of the most frustrating parts of fantasy football.

This week we had Josh Jacobs, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Ja'Maar Chase all barely score anything.

 

[Joe Bryant]

This is why I only play best ball.

What type of leagues and where do you like to play?

 

[Uncle Leo]

I have been forced to start QJ twice. Both time to cover WR bye weeks. Both weeks he got me a Zero. I was 1-1 during those 2 weeks.

 

[zamboni]

This is why I only play best ball.

I get the allure of BB leagues, but to me there is so much luck involved in FF that it would take some of the gut-wrenching decisions out and just throw spaghetti at the wall. I like trying to analyze and come up with my best weekly roster. Sometimes it works, sometimes not - but same for every other team.

 

[dblock05]

12 teamer redraft. I lost 2 weeks by 0.5 and 0.3 and now I’m out of the playoffs. The 0.5 loss came to me tinkering kickers due to the weather Friday evening.

 

[fightingillini]

WRs are tough this year. i've got a lot of good/not elite ones. Trying to pick the right ones each week is infuriating. And trying to upgrade to an elite one is tough.

Like REALLY tough. Almost as tough as trying to trade for Jonathan Taylor or CMC at RB. Having that consistent WR that gets you 6+ receptions literally every week along with 30 point plus ceiling, that's gold in PPR leagues.

Sometimes you are just going to pick the wrong WR, that's the price of having WR depth. Just too many variables that impact WR production.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

Patrick Thorman
Jeff Ratcliffe
Joe Bond
Nathan Jahnke

Expert names I recognize with success in the '24 and '25 fantasypros rankings. I've been lazy this year only looking at overall ECR without selecting the experts. I used to check Charchian's, which I believe are now paywalled. I still check fantasy footballers, but they haven't steered me well on the coin flips this season.

Gotta try something new with results this poor. If there are other experts that you consider must-include in an expert consensus ranking, I'd love to hear them.

 

[BassNBrew]

Patrick Thorman
Jeff Ratcliffe
Joe Bond
Nathan Jahnke

Expert names I recognize with success in the '24 and '25 fantasypros rankings. I've been lazy this year only looking at overall ECR without selecting the experts. I used to check Charchian's, which I believe are now paywalled. I still check fantasy footballers, but they haven't steered me well on the coin flips this season.

Gotta try something new with results this poor. If there are other experts that you consider must-include in an expert consensus ranking, I'd love to hear them.

Around these parts sort for Trembly. I really wish Henry did weekly projections.

 

[Ray Barboni]

My problem this year, has been picking up the hot player - that I should probably start in the flex, the week I picked him up.

Instead, I pick up said player - think about it way too much, and then bench him for the “safer” player I already had.

Without fail, the hot waiver guy blows off (in a good way) on my bench because I was too much of a pu55y to start the lower “projected” guy.

The next week that waiver add either has a bye or I have other options coming off bye.

Gotta love it.

 

[TampaMike19]

Better to be a week early than a week late with your starts

 

[fatness]

12 teamer redraft. I lost 2 weeks by 0.5 and 0.3 and now I’m out of the playoffs. The 0.5 loss came to me tinkering kickers due to the weather Friday evening.

About 3 years ago I changed a kicker and lost by 0.02 points. Haven't forgotten that.
Would have won if I hadn't changed.

 

[Lehigh98]

This is why I only play best ball.

I get the allure of BB leagues, but to me there is so much luck involved in FF that it would take some of the gut-wrenching decisions out and just throw spaghetti at the wall. I like trying to analyze and come up with my best weekly roster. Sometimes it works, sometimes not - but same for every other team.

To each their own, I hate that part and it's the reason I stopped playing for a while until I found best ball.
I'd also waste an hour or two on Sundays watching injuries and making changes distracting from family stuff.
(Also takes out the randomness / problem with low scores from in game injuries.)

 

[Lehigh98]

This is why I only play best ball.

What type of leagues and where do you like to play?

Mostly MFL dynasty leagues.
Main league has 25 spots that can score and then 10 additional non-scoring taxi spots (for rookies / devy).
Main league scoring lineup is QB, RB, WR, TE, 5 Flex, 1 SF... very flexy too.

 

[Gally]

This is why I only play best ball.

I get the allure of BB leagues, but to me there is so much luck involved in FF that it would take some of the gut-wrenching decisions out and just throw spaghetti at the wall. I like trying to analyze and come up with my best weekly roster. Sometimes it works, sometimes not - but same for every other team.

To each their own, I hate that part and it's the reason I stopped playing for a while until I found best ball.
I'd also waste an hour or two on Sundays watching injuries and making changes distracting from family stuff.
(Also takes out the randomness / problem with low scores from in game injuries.)

I almost don't understand the point of playing if I am not making lineup decisions. If I am going to be playing I want to be actively playing (for better or worse). Best ball to me is akin to auto draft. But to each their own.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

Lineup decisions are definitely a big facet of what I still think of when I think of "fantasy", along with weekly drop-adds. Trades are big when they happen, but way more fickle and not part of the weekly process. Overall trade volume has been dipping in my redraft leagues, but they continue to flow in dynasty.

I'm pretty sure the leagues I'm in will remain lineup leagues for as long as they're going, but I can't help but think that best ball would be more appropriate for the 20-year redraft league I commission. Activity in the league chat is way down. We've had one trade (mine), when we'd used to have a half-dozen. Everyone still shows up for the live draft and has a good time with it. I'm enjoying the weekly grind of in-season maintenance a lot less than I once did, and I think a lot of leaguemates are getting there too.
On the other hand, getting burned on lineup decisions isn't helping me personally enjoy fantasy any more this season, but I do think the weekly frustration or glee it creates is a big part of the in-season experience.

I know double-header head-to-head / top half leagues have become fashionable, but I still prefer strictly head-to-head for the same reason. I want the narrow losses to sting and the wins to be all that matter and euphoric. I don't want a weekly consolation prize of "I lost my matchup but finished in the top half of the league". Points are enough of a consolation in the high scoring losses and often play a huge factor in the playoff tiebreak and seeding when it's all said and done. I also think giving the last wildcard spot to the highest scoring team is a mistake some commissioners are making. It has created a situation for me where my weekly result doesn't matter beyond points scored. An early season win might prove to be my downfall. There's a realistic possibility that intentionally losing my last game to propel that opponent into a normal wildcard spot might be my best bet for making the playoffs via points wildcard. Not wise to have different teams in the same league playing for different things.

Injuries are probably the biggest thing killing the joy of fantasy for me. Some adversity was always good, but losing my top pick early in the season for two of the last three seasons in my main redraft league is becoming a huge buzzkill. So many cool storylines in the NFL and fantasy that just get snuffed out. Nabers, Skattebo, and now a Dart concussion all coming from just one NFL team. I used to love sitting down for Thurs/Sunday/Monday night games if I had a guy in my lineup or even if I was playing against someone. It just doesn't interest me anymore. Maybe I'll watch the 10-minute extended highlights like I'm watching the game live, but I usually don't even bother doing that. Just check the scoreboard and shrug to see another 6.4 point game from Jeanty and another wrong lineup decision.

 

[Scoresman]

Opposite problem here. I've been much better at picking my lineup, but everybody has their best week against us. I'm 3-8 but have scored more points than my 8-3 division leader.