Anyone ever use Dodds Game Predictor for a Pick 'em Leauge (1 Viewer)

[Dr. No]

Going by the lines on my CBS pick 'em league here are what the Game Predictor says are the most solid plays of the week

San Fran is favored to win by 2.5 - game predictor has them winning by 5.4 - +2.9 San Fran

Pittsburgh is a 2.5 home dog to Atlanta - game predictor has it as a draw - +2.5 Pitt

Carolina is a 6.5 point dog to the Giants - game predictor only has Giants winning by 4.2 - +2.3 Car

Cleveland is a 2.5 point dog to the Bucs - game predictor says Bucs by 0.3 - +2.2 Clev

Minn is a 5.5 dog to the Saints - game predictor has saints by 3.7 - +1.8 Minn

Chiefs are a 4.5 dog to the Chargers - game predictor chargers by 2.7 +1.8 Chiefs

In my pick 'em league i have to assign 40 points to one game, 25 to one game, 15 to one game, 10 to 2 games

So i went 40 SF, 25 Pitt, 15 Car, 10 Clev, 10 Chiefs

your thoughts?

 

[Steel Dillo]

My league runs a weekly pick'em contest, so I'm going to try using the game predictor this year. Haven't used it before, but thought why not give it a shot. It can't be any worse than my from the gut picks.

 

[Dr. No]

My league runs a weekly pick'em contest, so I'm going to try using the game predictor this year. Haven't used it before, but thought why not give it a shot. It can't be any worse than my from the gut picks.

My gut picks have landed me low spots every year.I don't know if this will be any betterIt was between this or following someone on therxforum and copying their picks.The bottom line is that I'm sick of making my own picks. I don't keep track enough to warrant making my own, so I'm going to use someone else's somehow someway.Would rather use an expert's than my own. I've done the same thing with mostly decent results for NCAA brackets too... just average the expert's selections.. because I sure don't watch NCAA enough to justify any of my own selections.

 

[Jayrod]

I was using Dodds for my league's pick 'em a couple of years ago and was ahead by a couple of games until I forgot to enter my picks one week and then just gave up.

 

[BroadwayG]

your thoughts?

I think it has a relatively good historical record. I have no data to back this up, but seem to remember some backpatting going on maybe last year about it. I might give it a few weeks to churn some current season numbers.

 

[Dr. No]

I was using Dodds for my league's pick 'em a couple of years ago and was ahead by a couple of games until I forgot to enter my picks one week and then just gave up.

ugh.. you're "forget my picks" guy...The bane of pick 'em leagues everywhere.

 

[Jayrod]

I was using Dodds for my league's pick 'em a couple of years ago and was ahead by a couple of games until I forgot to enter my picks one week and then just gave up.

ugh.. you're "forget my picks" guy...The bane of pick 'em leagues everywhere.

It is just a throw in competition for my dynasty league...only about 2/3 of the guys even do it week 1.And I was unemployed at the time. My pick em team didn't mean much then.

 

[oso diablo]

i've used it for several years in my league's pool. always keeps me in the running, but never has brought home the prize.

 

[videoguy505]

I think we looked at this before. One of the issues might be feedback noise... IIRC, either Dodds inputs the spreads and over/unders at the start of the process, or uses a similar methodology that Vegas uses when setting the initial lines, so the Game Predictor result is slightly influenced by what you'd want to bet on in the first place. I think in the past the Game Predictor results weren't much better/worse predicting the actual score than the Vegas line over the long run, or, weren't enough ahead to make up for the juice.

 

[Dr. No]

i've used it for several years in my league's pool. always keeps me in the running, but never has brought home the prize.

gotcha.I think I used it or something similar about 4-5 years ago.. i've forgotten.. and using it you didn't suck, but weren't hitting a home run.If someone just could give their top 5 picks of the week online i'd blindly follow them and see what happened.

 

[Curado Kev]

I used it last year every week and was 2nd place out of 12 until week 15 and I forgot my picks. So last year, it worked out great for me and I'll use it this year also.

Cya Kev

 

[Peiz]

This may be a dumb question, but being that it's my first year here, where do you find this application? Whenever I search I'm getting games from 2007 or something similar. It sounds like a great tool to at least guide my picks since I always finish way too low! Thanks!

 

[skinsrule05]

It is in the subscriber content each week. It comes out on Monday or Tuesday.

 

[Peiz]

Thank you! I see it now, I was outsmarting myself by looking everywhere but just the subscriber page. Thanks again.

 

[skinsrule05]

I agree with many above that I was sick of making my own picks. So I used game predictor for the first two weeks. Their record has not been too go so far:

Week 1: 6-10

Week 2: 4-12

I was able to do better using my gut for some picks. Since I was using my gut I wanted to see what the results would have been if I followed the game predictor exactly. I guess hoping for an easy solution never really works.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I agree with many above that I was sick of making my own picks. So I used game predictor for the first two weeks. Their record has not been too go so far:Week 1: 6-10Week 2: 4-12I was able to do better using my gut for some picks. Since I was using my gut I wanted to see what the results would have been if I followed the game predictor exactly. I guess hoping for an easy solution never really works.

would be interested in seeing how close it was on the over/under aspect

 

[skinsrule05]

I agree with many above that I was sick of making my own picks. So I used game predictor for the first two weeks. Their record has not been too go so far:Week 1: 6-10Week 2: 4-12I was able to do better using my gut for some picks. Since I was using my gut I wanted to see what the results would have been if I followed the game predictor exactly. I guess hoping for an easy solution never really works.

would be interested in seeing how close it was on the over/under aspect

Week 1: 10-5-1Week 2: 8-8

 

[CaptainHook]

what does it base its analysis on? if its last season it shouldnt be a surprise if it performs poorly in the beginning

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I agree with many above that I was sick of making my own picks. So I used game predictor for the first two weeks. Their record has not been too go so far:Week 1: 6-10Week 2: 4-12I was able to do better using my gut for some picks. Since I was using my gut I wanted to see what the results would have been if I followed the game predictor exactly. I guess hoping for an easy solution never really works.

would be interested in seeing how close it was on the over/under aspect

Week 1: 10-5-1Week 2: 8-8

well that's more what it's for than betting spreads. It is more intended to guage how much offense/scoring will be in the games. But ATS doesn't tell the story. If they set the O at 34 and it came in at 52 that's a 'win' but not really...

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Just pulled in all of the game predictors since 2006 (except for 2006 week 2 which isn't there for some reason), and the actual results of the games from PFR. Just picking winners and losers with no regard for the spread, the game predictor is 672/1040 in that span. That's a win rate of 64.6%.

The total score spit out by the game predictor was within 5 points of the actual total score 297 times, a rate of 28.6%. It was within 10 points of the actual total 52.7% of the time.

I don't have the spreads and O/Us handy, but I'll try to dig them up.

 

[videoguy505]

I don't have the spreads and O/Us handy, but I'll try to dig them up.

I think The Gold Sheet keeps a historical record of spreads.

 

[Kleck]

My wife uses the game predictor for her pick 'em league. It's one of those pick the winners and then give them points 1-16. She'll make a few changes, but usually keeps it close to what the predictor says. With 60+ people in the league, this year she is currently 5 points back from the leader. Last year she won it, and the year before that she finished 2nd. Won a few individual weeks along the way too.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

My wife uses the game predictor for her pick 'em league. It's one of those pick the winners and then give them points 1-16. She'll make a few changes, but usually keeps it close to what the predictor says. With 60+ people in the league, this year she is currently 5 points back from the leader. Last year she won it, and the year before that she finished 2nd. Won a few individual weeks along the way too.

good drafting

 

[Dr. No]

i don't know how the game predictor is doing overall this year, but I put points on the top 5 games of the week.

basically I put points in spots where the game predictor has the biggest difference vs. the spread.

I am in last place.

horrible

 

[utche96]

Game predictor has sucked on pick em this year. It has done well for me in the past though.