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Anyone not like Eddie Lacy? (2 Viewers)

I'll take a stab but as I have said all along, his situation is going to come down to how much the coaching staff uses him.  I don't think Starks is going to go away.  His carries have been declining each season 284 to 246 to 187.  I think they rebound a bit so if I was projecting him now I'll give him 220 carries.  His catches have been up and down (35-56-20).  I think he is a good pass catcher but he is being utilized less on 3rd down.  I think in predicting today I would just have to use his 3 year average at this point.

220-924-8, 37-333-2

That's a pretty solid 1257 yards from scrimmage and 10td. 

Not too far off his 3 year average of 1316 yards from scrimmage and 10 td.

 
My projection:

240-1032-7, 36-330-2

Those are pretty close to his average numbers over his career so far. Would put him at 226.2 points in PPR. Would have been good enough for RB7 last season.

 
MattFancy said:
My projection:

240-1032-7, 36-330-2

Those are pretty close to his average numbers over his career so far. Would put him at 226.2 points in PPR. Would have been good enough for RB7 last season.
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About where I have him, I can see him easily surpassing that TD total if Green Bay's offense gets on one of their patented rolls.  I have his TD ceiling at 16.

 
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TripItUp said:
About where I have him, I can see him surpassing that TD total if Green Bay's offense gets on one of their patented rolls.
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Yeah TDs are so hard to predict. I don't think 7 is unreasonable, but could certainly see more if they are more the 2014 version on offense.

 
The problem projecting still being is you almost have to use his averages due to the situation but his variance potential from those averages is huge (and probably a larger negative variance than a positive one).

 
Warhogs said:
The problem projecting still being is you almost have to use his averages due to the situation but his variance potential from those averages is huge (and probably a larger negative variance than a positive one).
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yep, for a top 20 RB Eddie has one of the highest floor/ceiling variances out there.  I like taking these guys in shallow leagues because ceiling is generally more important.  In deeper leagues, floor becomes more important depending on how competitive.

 
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I was going to mention Lacys floor.

Would seem that something North of what he did last year is his floor, given he's in better shape, J Nelson will be back , we think, Contract year.

 
MattFancy said:
1) The 3/9 game is the Seattle game in which he was injured on the opening drive and didn't come back. The 5/4 game was the Week 13 Detroit game in which he was benched for missing curfew.

A lot of people seem to forget he seemed to be the Packers' RB of choice for them in the playoffs. 24car/152yds for Lacy and 19car/76yds for Starks.

Yes, I agree that those aren't numbers you want from your 1st round pick. Again, not advocating for taking him in the 1st this year, but as a late 2nd/early 3rd, I think you could do worse then possibly grabbing a RB with Top 5-10 potential.
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Do you think he was in McCarthy's doghouse last year?  If so, I don't know what kind of leash he'll be on.  It's a contract year for him....but if they're not invested in re-signing him, I could see them cutting bait on him (more of a RBBC....I don't think they bench him completely). He's a guy who, more than others, will require training camp monitoring to decide on whether or not he's worth and late 2/early 3rd.  

I do think that if his head is on right and the team is committed to using him.....he could provide excellent value. 

 
265 att, 1,140 yards, 10 TD

38 catches, 327 yards, 3 TD

Total 303 touches, 1467 yards, 13 TD

Starks is a career backup, he's nothing more than a handcuff in fantasy and in Green Bay.

 
Thunderlips said:
Do you think he was in McCarthy's doghouse last year?  If so, I don't know what kind of leash he'll be on.  It's a contract year for him....but if they're not invested in re-signing him, I could see them cutting bait on him (more of a RBBC....I don't think they bench him completely). He's a guy who, more than others, will require training camp monitoring to decide on whether or not he's worth and late 2/early 3rd.  

I do think that if his head is on right and the team is committed to using him.....he could provide excellent value. 
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I think he was in the doghouse last year. But at the end of last season, McCarthy said Lacy needed to lose weight. Almost immediately it came out that he was working with Tony Horton and doing P90x. If nothing else, it showed McCarthy that he was taking the weight loss seriously. I thought I read he showed up to camp at 240 and they want him around 235 or so.

If they're not going to re-sign him, then why not DeMarco Murray him (ala the Cowboys) and run him into the ground? Starks is 30 now, so I don't think they'll be looking to him for the future. They don't really have much behind those 2 at RB either. John Crockett has 9 carries last season for them.

IMO, if Lacy is in shape and has his head on straight, the Packers have no reason to not give him a full workload.

 
WheelsUp said:
Did someone just say that Lacy wasnt hurt last year? Most of what is being said is opinion and thats valid from everyone.
But saying Lacy wasnt injured last year? To deny that would be liken to Donald Trump making a speech.
Lets keep the facts straight around here. Lacy hurt his ankle early and god knows if he ever recovered.
Since most injured players really never fully heal. For Redraft, the way my mocks work out, the 3rd is where he may fall.
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Got him in the 4th in a NFFC 12 team ppr draft after going wr rounds 1,2 and 3...

 
Really not worried about starks to be honest regardless of what happened last season, I think they will use John Crockett a lot more this season and he's going to slowly eat away at those backup/starks carries. I watched him play at NDSU his whole college career, the guy can play.

 
Seriously Starks is a non-issue.  He's a career backup who flashed as a rookie during the Packers 2010 Super Bowl run, had two years to seize the starting job and didn't (injuries and under-performance) and since 2013 the Packers have been disinterested in using him as anything other than injury replacement, COP guy.

 
Chaka said:
Seriously Starks is a non-issue.  He's a career backup who flashed as a rookie during the Packers 2010 Super Bowl run, had two years to seize the starting job and didn't (injuries and under-performance) and since 2013 the Packers have been disinterested in using him as anything other than injury replacement, COP guy.
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He was definitely an issue last season

 
ESPN Packers reporter Rob Demovsky expects the team to use a "split" backfield between James Starks and Eddie Lacy to begin the season.

Demovsky's theory is that the Packers will share work between Starks and Lacy in the first half of the year, and "ride Lacy down the stretch." Demovsky said the team did "didn't give Starks $3 million a year to not play." Starks was re-signed to a two-year, $6 million deal in March. He became a major asset as a receiver out of the backfield last year and is a big threat to Lacy's PPR value.
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I don't completely buy an ESPN beat guy's take, but if does raise some concerns.
 
Godsbrother said:
He was definitely an issue last season
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That was because Eddie regressed not because Starks outplayed him.  Despite what people think they saw, Starks did not outperform Lacy.  Even though Lacy was fat, out of shape and a little bit of a spoiled brat (two of those three seem to have been addressed this offseason, which suggests the third has as well) Starks barely matched Lacy's performance.

I think the reason people think Starks outperformed Lacy last year, or is a threat this year, is not because of what actually happened on the field but was due to expectations.  Lacy's were very high so his regression "hurt" people more, Starks was viewed as a handcuff at best (i.e. low expectations) so even his modest output felt better than it was.

 
It would be great for fantasy owners to see what he actually weighs today. If he is 230 or under at the start of the season, he is higher on my cheat sheet. It is that simple

 
Eddie Lacy said he feels "more explosive" this season.
One of the biggest offseason storylines was Lacy's weight, which reportedly ballooned into the 260s last season. Unsurprisingly, Lacy struggled to be effective at that weight, and he worked hard to get back into shape over the offseason. That work was evident in the first preseason game when Lacy opened with four straight carries for 24 yards. Healthy and in shape, Lacy looks poised for a bounce-back season.

 
 
Source: Packers.com 
Aug 15 - 8:11 AM
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Fellas, please pay attention to Jeremy Hill as well. He is going to be an absolute monster this season and his ADP is prefect. That is all.

 
Ojaays said:
I was skeptical, I like what I've seen and he is in the conversation now after I roster a couple of stud WR's
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I'm with you on this.  I would be thrilled to see Eddie in the third round of my draft, and it is possible as I am in a super-flex league.  However the skeptic in me doubts Eddie is going to be available in the third round of most drafts.  The fact that there does seem to be a lot of question marks beyond the top 4 RBs (and within the top 4 really) gives me a glimmer of hope though.  

 
The stats have been encouraging. What I found to be eye-opening was that first drive.

9 carries. His first run goes for 20. He's not coming out winded. That shows me he's in better shape.

Gets the ball on the next FOUR plays. That shows confidence of the coaching staff...and stamina.

(yes it's early in the game and there was a timeout in between there...but still.)

Then when they get inside the 10, 1st and goal from the 6 eddie gets 5. 2nd and goal at the one he gets stuffed.

This is where I shut off the TV felt great...AFTER getting stuffed, they give him the ball again on 3rd and goal from the 1.

Now, 3 straight goal line carries won't always happen with Rodgers in there, but still.

Very encouraged. Might reach for him in the middle of the 2nd instead of hoping he falls to the middle of the 3rd and missing out.

 
Thinking about taking him in the early second after dj, gurley, ap, elliot, miller, and freeman are off the board. Tough between him and Ingram

Roll tide

 
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need2know said:
Thinking about taking him in the early second after dj, gurley, ap, elliot, miller, and freeman are off the board. Tough between him and Ingram

Roll tide
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Funny you mention that...in my dynasty league a guy offered Ingram/Hightower + a little something more (ebron/victor cruz) for Lacy/Starks. It's pretty even but I'm rolling with Eddie as I think his ceiling is (maybe a bit crazy here) #1 RB overall.

 
Dope said:
Funny you mention that...in my dynasty league a guy offered Ingram/Hightower + a little something more (ebron/victor cruz) for Lacy/Starks. It's pretty even but I'm rolling with Eddie as I think his ceiling is (maybe a bit crazy here) #1 RB overall.
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It's a smart move.  Ingram and Lacy seem to be push as to what the bring on the field and, maybe I'm wrong, but Ingram seems like a bigger injury risk.

 
I'm sceptical from a dynasty perspective.  If you read through this guy's Twitter history, it becomes crystal clear that he has very real issues with food.  It's great that he's tightened himself up this offseason, but I would not be surprised to see him fall off the wagon.  If he returns to 2014 form this season I'll probably be looking to cash out.   

 
Captain Cranks said:
I'm sceptical from a dynasty perspective.  If you read through this guy's Twitter history, it becomes crystal clear that he has very real issues with food.  It's great that he's tightened himself up this offseason, but I would not be surprised to see him fall off the wagon.  If he returns to 2014 form this season I'll probably be looking to cash out.   
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I've been thinking this too. How many guys have we seen tear it up in a contract year and get the brinks truck to park in their driveway...and then eat/lazy themselves back to the dogcrap heap.

 
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McCarthy seems hellbent on running a lot out of a 2TE set. I've been reticent on Lacy for fantasy purposes but I'm getting sucked in now.

I don't think it's as simple as "issues with food." I'm always reluctant to speculate about anyone I don't know but I'm pretty sure Lacy has dealt with serious depression. (And I'm right there with you, bro hammer.)

I think he's happy in GB and about to turn in a very good year. I'll admit I'm a fan enjoying the franchise's best RB in 10+ years though. I don't think I've ever owned him on a fantasy team.

 
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