Anyone not like Eddie Lacy? (2 Viewers)

[Shutout]

Is there anyone worth holding anymore? Serious question. I don't need THE RB1 every year. I just need A RB1. Lacy has been that for 12 team leagues the past two seasons (with limited touches). We complain about his style of running and how he won't last longer than three years then the coach goes on record and says he will preserve Lacy and that becomes a knock on him. Selling him at the age of 24 years old? Who else are you going to target? EVERY running back has question marks. Yes Larry, even the guys you like. Lynch has a bad back. Charles is creeping up on 30 and has Davis stealing carries. 75% of the league is in a timeshare. Seems to me that people need to feel good about themselves by being ahead of the crowd. No need to go out and invest 100K on that bomb shelter. The sky is NOT falling. Just sit back and enjoy the fact that Lacy is a solid asset. In running back years, he is still wearing diapers. I would love to see the KoolAid man list the backs he considers to be worthy of keeping. Bet I could find lots of reasons to move every one of them!

What an excellent post. I think you nailed it.

 

[Shutout]

Is there anyone worth holding anymore? Serious question. I don't need THE RB1 every year. I just need A RB1. Lacy has been that for 12 team leagues the past two seasons (with limited touches). We complain about his style of running and how he won't last longer than three years then the coach goes on record and says he will preserve Lacy and that becomes a knock on him. Selling him at the age of 24 years old? Who else are you going to target? EVERY running back has question marks. Yes Larry, even the guys you like. Lynch has a bad back. Charles is creeping up on 30 and has Davis stealing carries. 75% of the league is in a timeshare. Seems to me that people need to feel good about themselves by being ahead of the crowd. No need to go out and invest 100K on that bomb shelter. The sky is NOT falling. Just sit back and enjoy the fact that Lacy is a solid asset. In running back years, he is still wearing diapers. I would love to see the KoolAid man list the backs he considers to be worthy of keeping. Bet I could find lots of reasons to move every one of them!

Dynasty is all about buying low and selling high though. If you can get $1.50 on the dollar for any player on your roster wouldn't you do it?

Not to say, of course, that it is a "bad idea" to keep Lacy. I just think there is validity to moving guys like him. I'd move any running back in dynasty if I got the price I wanted. For the top end, you usually do because ppl just stress over the position.

yes and no. Dynasty is about winning...EVERY year. How you do that MIGHT be buying low and selling high one year. Other years, it might be sitting back and watching the crop you sewed previously (when you bought low and sold high) just bear some fruit.

 

[amicsta]

Is there anyone worth holding anymore? Serious question. I don't need THE RB1 every year. I just need A RB1. Lacy has been that for 12 team leagues the past two seasons (with limited touches). We complain about his style of running and how he won't last longer than three years then the coach goes on record and says he will preserve Lacy and that becomes a knock on him. Selling him at the age of 24 years old? Who else are you going to target? EVERY running back has question marks. Yes Larry, even the guys you like. Lynch has a bad back. Charles is creeping up on 30 and has Davis stealing carries. 75% of the league is in a timeshare. Seems to me that people need to feel good about themselves by being ahead of the crowd. No need to go out and invest 100K on that bomb shelter. The sky is NOT falling. Just sit back and enjoy the fact that Lacy is a solid asset. In running back years, he is still wearing diapers. I would love to see the KoolAid man list the backs he considers to be worthy of keeping. Bet I could find lots of reasons to move every one of them!

Dynasty is all about buying low and selling high though. If you can get $1.50 on the dollar for any player on your roster wouldn't you do it?

Not to say, of course, that it is a "bad idea" to keep Lacy. I just think there is validity to moving guys like him. I'd move any running back in dynasty if I got the price I wanted. For the top end, you usually do because ppl just stress over the position.

yes and no. Dynasty is about winning...EVERY year. How you do that MIGHT be buying low and selling high one year. Other years, it might be sitting back and watching the crop you sewed previously (when you bought low and sold high) just bear some fruit.

I definitely agree that there is more than one way to do it, I just think that the original post was indicating that if you don't keep Lacy, there are few viable options to go after, to which I would disagree. Who says the player you target has to be a RB? Maybe I can get a stud WR who is young and will give me just as much, or more production, than Lacy, but for more years. Maybe I can get a group of players that I like. Maybe I can get a WR1 and a RB prospect that I think will become a RB1 or 2 this season. Etc. That's my only point, is that, at least for me, trying to be ahead of the curve is what helps you to win in dynasty and avoid colossal losses in player value. Sometimes you mess up, but that's part of playing the game. Heck, last season I traded Andrew Luck for Michael Floyd and a couple of 2nd round draft picks because I think QB is fairly replacable and I expected Floyd to take a huge leap. But I still finished 2nd in the league (ironically to the guy I traded him to despite a 0 from Luck). That tells me that the process is good enough to avoid some mistakes. Again, its personal preference, but I don't think either is wrong.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

Earth's yellow sun will die in 5 billion years. Sell high.

 

[georg013]

Earth's yellow sun will die in 5 billion years. Sell high.

According to a cool, refreshing sugary beverage, it is already too late. The time to sell was when he was born.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

you can put the pitchfork back in the shed --- I wasn't the one suggesting you sell

I was the one suggesting he was maybe being overdrafted, as I didn't think rodgers made him a lock to improve on his 280/1200/11 rookie year.

now that he followed up with 250/1100/9 I guess certain people are getting cold feet

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

you can put the pitchfork back in the shed --- I wasn't the one suggesting you sell

I was the one suggesting he was maybe being overdrafted, as I didn't think rodgers made him a lock to improve on his 280/1200/11 rookie year.

now that he followed up with 250/1100/9 I guess certain people are getting cold feet

Do you get any fantasy points for his 427 receiving yards and 4 td's in your league?

 

[unckeyherb]

Worst backtrack I've ever seen. Good attempt at humor though

 

[unckeyherb]

you can put the pitchfork back in the shed --- I wasn't the one suggesting you sell

I was the one suggesting he was maybe being overdrafted, as I didn't think rodgers made him a lock to improve on his 280/1200/11 rookie year.

now that he followed up with 250/1100/9 I guess certain people are getting cold feet

Do you get any fantasy points for his 427 receiving yards and 4 td's in your league?

Not if it doesn't help his backtracking.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

you can put the pitchfork back in the shed --- I wasn't the one suggesting you sell

I was the one suggesting he was maybe being overdrafted, as I didn't think rodgers made him a lock to improve on his 280/1200/11 rookie year.

now that he followed up with 250/1100/9 I guess certain people are getting cold feet

Do you get any fantasy points for his 427 receiving yards and 4 td's in your league?

I sure do, and if I thought I could count on that every year I'd say he's more of a hold than a sell

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I would love to see the KoolAid man list the backs he considers to be worthy of keeping. Bet I could find lots of reasons to move every one of them!

I'm keepin' jeremy hill in my keeper league, but I doubt I'd take him with the 5th pick in my redraft

probably keeping mason, too

 

[Shutout]

you can put the pitchfork back in the shed --- I wasn't the one suggesting you sell

I was the one suggesting he was maybe being overdrafted, as I didn't think rodgers made him a lock to improve on his 280/1200/11 rookie year.

now that he followed up with 250/1100/9 I guess certain people are getting cold feet

As I said last off-season: On this team, Lacy is a LOCK for 1000/10. Adjust your "hold/sell/buy" strategy accordingly to how valuable that is in your league.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

you can put the pitchfork back in the shed --- I wasn't the one suggesting you sell

I was the one suggesting he was maybe being overdrafted, as I didn't think rodgers made him a lock to improve on his 280/1200/11 rookie year.

now that he followed up with 250/1100/9 I guess certain people are getting cold feet

Do you get any fantasy points for his 427 receiving yards and 4 td's in your league?

I sure do, and if I thought I could count on that every year I'd say he's more of a hold than a sell

What are your projections for Lacy?

I don't think the yard per catch is going to stay that high, but he is going to catch 40 plus balls, and he is as safe as any RB out there to match his 1150 yards rushing and double digit TD's.

He is a great plug and play in a great offense. He is 24 years of age. He may have the least amount of any rb in the league for red flags. Same coach, same offense, production in year 1 and year 2. Production with starting QB down. He passes the eye ball test and has the numbers to prove it.

I just don't get how anyone has doubts with how great of a player Lacy is and has become. Ride the big man.

 

[amicsta]

you can put the pitchfork back in the shed --- I wasn't the one suggesting you sell

I was the one suggesting he was maybe being overdrafted, as I didn't think rodgers made him a lock to improve on his 280/1200/11 rookie year.

now that he followed up with 250/1100/9 I guess certain people are getting cold feet

Do you get any fantasy points for his 427 receiving yards and 4 td's in your league?

I sure do, and if I thought I could count on that every year I'd say he's more of a hold than a sell

What are your projections for Lacy?

I don't think the yard per catch is going to stay that high, but he is going to catch 40 plus balls, and he is as safe as any RB out there to match his 1150 yards rushing and double digit TD's.

He is a great plug and play in a great offense. He is 24 years of age. He may have the least amount of any rb in the league for red flags. Same coach, same offense, production in year 1 and year 2. Production with starting QB down. He passes the eye ball test and has the numbers to prove it.

I just don't get how anyone has doubts with how great of a player Lacy is and has become. Ride the big man.

It sounds like to me that this whole discussion has been two different arguments had as a single argument. I don't think anyone that is trying to move Lacy would suggest that he isn't a good player (at least I wouldn't). That's not the argument being made. The argument is that he is being valued greater than his actual FANTASY worth, and I think there is validity there. It's a matter for debate, and those who have Lacy and keep him are not fools by any stretch, but I just think its silly that every time this debate heats up, the argument is that "well Lacy is a great player". That's awesome, I'm interested in fantasy. If a guy that you thought "stinks" was putting up the same numbers with the same job security, would you value it any less for fantasy? If you get caught up star-gazing, you over/under value a lot of players in fantasy.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

you can put the pitchfork back in the shed --- I wasn't the one suggesting you sell

I was the one suggesting he was maybe being overdrafted, as I didn't think rodgers made him a lock to improve on his 280/1200/11 rookie year.

now that he followed up with 250/1100/9 I guess certain people are getting cold feet

Do you get any fantasy points for his 427 receiving yards and 4 td's in your league?

I sure do, and if I thought I could count on that every year I'd say he's more of a hold than a sell

What are your projections for Lacy?

I don't think the yard per catch is going to stay that high, but he is going to catch 40 plus balls, and he is as safe as any RB out there to match his 1150 yards rushing and double digit TD's.

He is a great plug and play in a great offense. He is 24 years of age. He may have the least amount of any rb in the league for red flags. Same coach, same offense, production in year 1 and year 2. Production with starting QB down. He passes the eye ball test and has the numbers to prove it.

I just don't get how anyone has doubts with how great of a player Lacy is and has become. Ride the big man.

It sounds like to me that this whole discussion has been two different arguments had as a single argument. I don't think anyone that is trying to move Lacy would suggest that he isn't a good player (at least I wouldn't). That's not the argument being made. The argument is that he is being valued greater than his actual FANTASY worth, and I think there is validity there. It's a matter for debate, and those who have Lacy and keep him are not fools by any stretch, but I just think its silly that every time this debate heats up, the argument is that "well Lacy is a great player". That's awesome, I'm interested in fantasy. If a guy that you thought "stinks" was putting up the same numbers with the same job security, would you value it any less for fantasy? If you get caught up star-gazing, you over/under value a lot of players in fantasy.

Fair points.

I am looking at it from a dynasty play and my stance is one that wants as many players like Lacy on my team for the now and for the future. I am looking to acquire the top players and not sell them for other potential top players and pieces just because RB's may get hurt or you are hoping to get another guy with similar production. There is something about knowing what type of production you are going to get out of a guy especially when it is very good RB1 numbers.

The grass is not always greener and sometimes the best play is to ride the studs you have. Now if you are loaded at a position and or weak at another position then it becomes a different debate and argument. But I don't think you look at Lacy and say hmmm I think he has lucked out a couple of years and this is the year I am right and he is going to stink. This is not a 29 year old rb that may be on his last legs.

I guess I was trying to discredit anyone that doubts what Lacy did in year 1 and year 2 as fluke.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I guess I was trying to discredit anyone that doubts what Lacy did in year 1 and year 2 as fluke.

I wouldn't call those flukes, per se, but I think they leaned on lacy a little more than they normally would in his rookie year because rodgers missed time, which is the polar opposite of a few people in here touting an explosion of production when rodgers got back on the field.

in year 2, I think lacy reverted to what's probably going to be pretty typical production on the ground, but the receiving point becomes a question for me -- 400/4 is a lot.

lynch also had 4 receiving td last year, for the first time in his career --- do I bank on that again next year?

I think there were maybe 7 rb who had 4 receiving td last year, 3 the year before, and only 1 the year before that.

yeah, I just checked it out -- sproles was the lone gunman in 2012, with woodhead and mccoy at 3 each, and sproles was also the lone guy at 4+ in 2011.

was last year a fluke, a shift, a scheme...?

is this trestman's offense, or reid's, or payton's, where I can bank ppr rb every year?

lacy got 55 targets last year, while forte got 130 and bell 105 --- there were 22 guys with 50+

I'd think it would be the bell guys puffing themselves up right now, rather than the lacy guys, but they seem relatively quiet.

 

[amicsta]

I guess I was trying to discredit anyone that doubts what Lacy did in year 1 and year 2 as fluke.

I wouldn't call those flukes, per se, but I think they leaned on lacy a little more than they normally would in his rookie year because rodgers missed time, which is the polar opposite of a few people in here touting an explosion of production when rodgers got back on the field.

in year 2, I think lacy reverted to what's probably going to be pretty typical production on the ground, but the receiving point becomes a question for me -- 400/4 is a lot.

lynch also had 4 receiving td last year, for the first time in his career --- do I bank on that again next year?

I think there were maybe 7 rb who had 4 receiving td last year, 3 the year before, and only 1 the year before that.

yeah, I just checked it out -- sproles was the lone gunman in 2012, with woodhead and mccoy at 3 each, and sproles was also the lone guy at 4+ in 2011.

was last year a fluke, a shift, a scheme...?

is this trestman's offense, or reid's, or payton's, where I can bank ppr rb every year?

lacy got 55 targets last year, while forte got 130 and bell 105 --- there were 22 guys with 50+

I'd think it would be the bell guys puffing themselves up right now, rather than the lacy guys, but they seem relatively quiet.

This. Exactly what I was saying before in a previous post. Lacy had what is probably an outlier season in the receiving game and finished as just RB5. His numbers on the ground will be pretty consistent, I think everyone is in agreement of that. But they are fairly pedestrian (with respect to where he is being valued) without the 400/4 receiving line. Get someone to pay for the inflated receiving numbers while you can is my opinion. His usage in the pass game was almost identical to what it was in 2013.

 

[georg013]

Maybe there is a batch of running backs in the league that I don't know about who are performing at an elite level. The problem is, very few running backs are performing at an elite level. Therefore, the value of any running back who is the primary ball carrier and has shown consistency is going to be valued highly. Why? Because there are so few of them. I'm not saying Lacy is Adrian Peterson or anything, just that he is providing something only a handful of other backs are right now. Most of who are near the end of their respective careers (or peaks) I might add. If you knew you could count on 1,000 yards and 10 tds for the next 5 years with 35 receptions as a FLOOR, why wouldn't you value that??? It's not like there is an abundance of running backs doing better.

 

[amicsta]

Maybe there is a batch of running backs in the league that I don't know about who are performing at an elite level. The problem is, very few running backs are performing at an elite level. Therefore, the value of any running back who is the primary ball carrier and has shown consistency is going to be valued highly. Why? Because there are so few of them. I'm not saying Lacy is Adrian Peterson or anything, just that he is providing something only a handful of other backs are right now. Most of who are near the end of their respective careers (or peaks) I might add. If you knew you could count on 1,000 yards and 10 tds for the next 5 years with 35 receptions as a FLOOR, why wouldn't you value that??? It's not like there is an abundance of running backs doing better.

I just think that the longevity issue is a real issue and it's not something I would bank on. The dropoff comes quick and unexpectedly for some. I mean who thought Doug Martin's rookie season was going to be his BEST season? He was being drafted in the high first round in startups after that year and he's washed up faster than a seashell on the beach. Now is he the rule? The norm? No, of course not. But I think it does paint a cautionary tale that even young backs can drop like a rock in just one season. Expecting Lacy to perform at the same level he is now through his age 29 season I think is highly unlikely. There just isn't that many backs who have been able to do that in their careers.

 

[amicsta]

To emphasize that note, here is the list of every RB drafted in the last 20 years who has had at least one season of 900 rushing yards, 8 rushing touchdowns, and 30 receptions:

Ricky Williams

Domanick Williams

Brian Westbrook

LaDainian Tomlinson

Fred Taylor

James Stewart

Lamar Smith

Kevin Smith

Steve Slaton

Trent Richardson

Ray Rice

Dominic Rhodes

Clinton Portis

Adrian Peterson

DeMarco Murray

Knowshon Moreno

Lamar Miller

LeSean McCoy

Deuce McAllister

Doug Martin

Curtis Martin

Marshawn Lynch

Jamal Lewis

Dorsey Levens

Eddie Lacy

LaMont Jordan

MJD

Thomas Jones

Larry Johnson
Chris Johnson

Edgerrin James

Steven jackson

Priest Holmes

Travis Henry

Ahman Green

Ryan Grant

Frank Gore

Eddie George

Arian Foster

Matt Forte

Justin Forsett

Marshall Faulk

Robert Edwards

Warrick Dunn
Corey Dillon

Terrell Davis

Stephen Davis

Jamaal Charles

Ronnie Brown

Ahmad Bradshaw

Le'Veon Bell

Tiki Barber

Marion Barber

Shaun Alexander

Joseph Addai

A decent list, 55 names in all. Now here's the list of guys that did it for more than 3 seasons:

Ricky Williams

Tomlinson

Portis

Deuce

Curtis Martin

Edge

Foster

Faulk

Tiki Barber

THATS IT! 9 guys. Now obviously if you were drafted in the last 3 years you couldn't make this list, but I think you can see just how rare of company Lacy would be in to accomplish even lower numbers than what you're setting the bar at for more than ONE MORE SEASON. If we say the first 5 seasons the list gets even shorter, just LT, Edge, and Faulk, 3 of the best running backs EVER. And as an FYI, Lacy would be the only other player than Tomlinson to do it for 7 years (his 2 seasons plus the next 5 as you called his "floor". And remember, I set the bar lower than you did). So really, how likely is it that Lacy keeps this up? NOT THAT LIKELY. Now you may say, well Adrian Peterson didn't make this list, I'd bet you'd love to have him. Yes of course I would, but Peterson over his career has rushed for over 1,200 yds and 10 TD 6 times in his career. Lacy might not ever do that more than once, he may never do it at all! Remember, Aaron Rodgers will probably be the quarterback of this team for as long as Lacy is there. That means Lacy will NEVER be the focal point, will NEVER get enough touches to get really high yardage totals, etc. What you are suggesting is UNREALISTIC for Lacy.

So no, there aren't an abundance of RB doing better than Lacy right now, only around 5 a year, but within even 2 years Lacy probably doesn't even exist in the same class of back he does now. This is what the facts dictate.

 

[werdnoynek]

To emphasize that note, here is the list of every RB drafted in the last 20 years who has had at least one season of 900 rushing yards, 8 rushing touchdowns, and 30 receptions:

Ricky Williams

Domanick Williams

Brian Westbrook

LaDainian Tomlinson

Fred Taylor

James Stewart

Lamar Smith

Kevin Smith

Steve Slaton

Trent Richardson

Ray Rice

Dominic Rhodes

Clinton Portis

Adrian Peterson

DeMarco Murray

Knowshon Moreno

Lamar Miller

LeSean McCoy

Deuce McAllister

Doug Martin

Curtis Martin

Marshawn Lynch

Jamal Lewis

Dorsey Levens

Eddie Lacy

LaMont Jordan

MJD

Thomas Jones

Larry Johnson

Chris Johnson

Edgerrin James

Steven jackson

Priest Holmes

Travis Henry

Ahman Green

Ryan Grant

Frank Gore

Eddie George

Arian Foster

Matt Forte

Justin Forsett

Marshall Faulk

Robert Edwards

Warrick Dunn

Corey Dillon

Terrell Davis

Stephen Davis

Jamaal Charles

Ronnie Brown

Ahmad Bradshaw

Le'Veon Bell

Tiki Barber

Marion Barber

Shaun Alexander

Joseph Addai

A decent list, 55 names in all. Now here's the list of guys that did it for more than 3 seasons:

Ricky Williams

Tomlinson

Portis

Deuce

Curtis Martin

Edge

Foster

Faulk

Tiki Barber

THATS IT! 9 guys. Now obviously if you were drafted in the last 3 years you couldn't make this list, but I think you can see just how rare of company Lacy would be in to accomplish even lower numbers than what you're setting the bar at for more than ONE MORE SEASON. If we say the first 5 seasons the list gets even shorter, just LT, Edge, and Faulk, 3 of the best running backs EVER. And as an FYI, Lacy would be the only other player than Tomlinson to do it for 7 years (his 2 seasons plus the next 5 as you called his "floor". And remember, I set the bar lower than you did). So really, how likely is it that Lacy keeps this up? NOT THAT LIKELY. Now you may say, well Adrian Peterson didn't make this list, I'd bet you'd love to have him. Yes of course I would, but Peterson over his career has rushed for over 1,200 yds and 10 TD 6 times in his career. Lacy might not ever do that more than once, he may never do it at all! Remember, Aaron Rodgers will probably be the quarterback of this team for as long as Lacy is there. That means Lacy will NEVER be the focal point, will NEVER get enough touches to get really high yardage totals, etc. What you are suggesting is UNREALISTIC for Lacy.

So no, there aren't an abundance of RB doing better than Lacy right now, only around 5 a year, but within even 2 years Lacy probably doesn't even exist in the same class of back he does now. This is what the facts dictate.

I think what most are saying is that this applies to all running backs in the league, not just Lacy. Why does that make him less valuable than the rest, as you seem to be inferring... ?

One would think that because Rodgers is the conductor of the train that is the Packers, Lacy would have a better opportunity to preserve his health and his wheels and continue on the trajectory he's currently at. There are backs who get run to the ground because they don't have the QB Lacy has... I see that argument going both ways and it could preserve and extend his career and statistics vs hurt him.

 

[amicsta]

To emphasize that note, here is the list of every RB drafted in the last 20 years who has had at least one season of 900 rushing yards, 8 rushing touchdowns, and 30 receptions:

Ricky Williams

Domanick Williams

Brian Westbrook

LaDainian Tomlinson

Fred Taylor

James Stewart

Lamar Smith

Kevin Smith

Steve Slaton

Trent Richardson

Ray Rice

Dominic Rhodes

Clinton Portis

Adrian Peterson

DeMarco Murray

Knowshon Moreno

Lamar Miller

LeSean McCoy

Deuce McAllister

Doug Martin

Curtis Martin

Marshawn Lynch

Jamal Lewis

Dorsey Levens

Eddie Lacy

LaMont Jordan

MJD

Thomas Jones

Larry Johnson

Chris Johnson

Edgerrin James

Steven jackson

Priest Holmes

Travis Henry

Ahman Green

Ryan Grant

Frank Gore

Eddie George

Arian Foster

Matt Forte

Justin Forsett

Marshall Faulk

Robert Edwards

Warrick Dunn

Corey Dillon

Terrell Davis

Stephen Davis

Jamaal Charles

Ronnie Brown

Ahmad Bradshaw

Le'Veon Bell

Tiki Barber

Marion Barber

Shaun Alexander

Joseph Addai

A decent list, 55 names in all. Now here's the list of guys that did it for more than 3 seasons:

Ricky Williams

Tomlinson

Portis

Deuce

Curtis Martin

Edge

Foster

Faulk

Tiki Barber

THATS IT! 9 guys. Now obviously if you were drafted in the last 3 years you couldn't make this list, but I think you can see just how rare of company Lacy would be in to accomplish even lower numbers than what you're setting the bar at for more than ONE MORE SEASON. If we say the first 5 seasons the list gets even shorter, just LT, Edge, and Faulk, 3 of the best running backs EVER. And as an FYI, Lacy would be the only other player than Tomlinson to do it for 7 years (his 2 seasons plus the next 5 as you called his "floor". And remember, I set the bar lower than you did). So really, how likely is it that Lacy keeps this up? NOT THAT LIKELY. Now you may say, well Adrian Peterson didn't make this list, I'd bet you'd love to have him. Yes of course I would, but Peterson over his career has rushed for over 1,200 yds and 10 TD 6 times in his career. Lacy might not ever do that more than once, he may never do it at all! Remember, Aaron Rodgers will probably be the quarterback of this team for as long as Lacy is there. That means Lacy will NEVER be the focal point, will NEVER get enough touches to get really high yardage totals, etc. What you are suggesting is UNREALISTIC for Lacy.

So no, there aren't an abundance of RB doing better than Lacy right now, only around 5 a year, but within even 2 years Lacy probably doesn't even exist in the same class of back he does now. This is what the facts dictate.

I think what most are saying is that this applies to all running backs in the league, not just Lacy. Why does that make him less valuable than the rest, as you seem to be inferring... ?

One would think that because Rodgers is the conductor of the train that is the Packers, Lacy would have a better opportunity to preserve his health and his wheels and continue on the trajectory he's currently at. There are backs who get run to the ground because they don't have the QB Lacy has... I see that argument going both ways and it could preserve and extend his career and statistics vs hurt him.

This is why I look to sell high at the position. That's pretty much been my stance this whole time.

 

[amicsta]

Unless I think a guy is a generational talent, which I do not think Lacy is

 

[unckeyherb]

To emphasize that note, here is the list of every RB drafted in the last 20 years who has had at least one season of 900 rushing yards, 8 rushing touchdowns, and 30 receptions:

Ricky Williams

Domanick Williams

Brian Westbrook

LaDainian Tomlinson

Fred Taylor

James Stewart

Lamar Smith

Kevin Smith

Steve Slaton

Trent Richardson

Ray Rice

Dominic Rhodes

Clinton Portis

Adrian Peterson

DeMarco Murray

Knowshon Moreno

Lamar Miller

LeSean McCoy

Deuce McAllister

Doug Martin

Curtis Martin

Marshawn Lynch

Jamal Lewis

Dorsey Levens

Eddie Lacy

LaMont Jordan

MJD

Thomas Jones

Larry Johnson

Chris Johnson

Edgerrin James

Steven jackson

Priest Holmes

Travis Henry

Ahman Green

Ryan Grant

Frank Gore

Eddie George

Arian Foster

Matt Forte

Justin Forsett

Marshall Faulk

Robert Edwards

Warrick Dunn

Corey Dillon

Terrell Davis

Stephen Davis

Jamaal Charles

Ronnie Brown

Ahmad Bradshaw

Le'Veon Bell

Tiki Barber

Marion Barber

Shaun Alexander

Joseph Addai

A decent list, 55 names in all. Now here's the list of guys that did it for more than 3 seasons:

Ricky Williams

Tomlinson

Portis

Deuce

Curtis Martin

Edge

Foster

Faulk

Tiki Barber

THATS IT! 9 guys. Now obviously if you were drafted in the last 3 years you couldn't make this list, but I think you can see just how rare of company Lacy would be in to accomplish even lower numbers than what you're setting the bar at for more than ONE MORE SEASON. If we say the first 5 seasons the list gets even shorter, just LT, Edge, and Faulk, 3 of the best running backs EVER. And as an FYI, Lacy would be the only other player than Tomlinson to do it for 7 years (his 2 seasons plus the next 5 as you called his "floor". And remember, I set the bar lower than you did). So really, how likely is it that Lacy keeps this up? NOT THAT LIKELY. Now you may say, well Adrian Peterson didn't make this list, I'd bet you'd love to have him. Yes of course I would, but Peterson over his career has rushed for over 1,200 yds and 10 TD 6 times in his career. Lacy might not ever do that more than once, he may never do it at all! Remember, Aaron Rodgers will probably be the quarterback of this team for as long as Lacy is there. That means Lacy will NEVER be the focal point, will NEVER get enough touches to get really high yardage totals, etc. What you are suggesting is UNREALISTIC for Lacy.

So no, there aren't an abundance of RB doing better than Lacy right now, only around 5 a year, but within even 2 years Lacy probably doesn't even exist in the same class of back he does now. This is what the facts dictate.

I think what most are saying is that this applies to all running backs in the league, not just Lacy. Why does that make him less valuable than the rest, as you seem to be inferring... ?

One would think that because Rodgers is the conductor of the train that is the Packers, Lacy would have a better opportunity to preserve his health and his wheels and continue on the trajectory he's currently at. There are backs who get run to the ground because they don't have the QB Lacy has... I see that argument going both ways and it could preserve and extend his career and statistics vs hurt him.

We've seen Lacy without Rodgers for a chunk of the season and Lacy finished tied with ADP as RB7. However, during that season his games with Rodgers were sub-par and it was apparent to some-namely Larry-that the return of Rodgers would signal a downgrade of Lacy's numbers. A point argued quite a bit prior to last season. As we all know, Lacy started off last season, weeks 1-3 against the top 3 run defenses in the league and looked very sub-par; a point not lost on Larry and his ilk. However, from week 4 on Lacy was one of the most dependable RB's in the league and ended the season as RB6.

His ability in the passing game was a boon to owners that were probably not expecting a huge uptick in receiving stats. I don't really see a reason to expect a major downgrade to those stats, other than the TD's-he should catch 35-45 passes next year. He runs like a beast and frankly his style of running is impactful to the people watching-passing the eye-test- so to speak.

My point is that his floor (which is very high) is probably not far from his ceiling. This is not a bad thing, frankly its a great thing. Consistency in your RB1 is awesome. I think that most people's perceptions of him are of a tough hard-nosed runner, with great receiving skills and a nose for the endzone that plays with the best QB in the league at the helm. Thats powerful stuff and if I can parlay that into an upgrade elsewhere AND a draft pick, its worth it to me. Keeping him on my roster would make me very happy as well.

 

[Shutout]

To emphasize that note, here is the list of every RB drafted in the last 20 years who has had at least one season of 900 rushing yards, 8 rushing touchdowns, and 30 receptions:

Ricky Williams

Domanick Williams

Brian Westbrook

LaDainian Tomlinson

Fred Taylor

James Stewart

Lamar Smith

Kevin Smith

Steve Slaton

Trent Richardson

Ray Rice

Dominic Rhodes

Clinton Portis

Adrian Peterson

DeMarco Murray

Knowshon Moreno

Lamar Miller

LeSean McCoy

Deuce McAllister

Doug Martin

Curtis Martin

Marshawn Lynch

Jamal Lewis

Dorsey Levens

Eddie Lacy

LaMont Jordan

MJD

Thomas Jones

Larry Johnson

Chris Johnson

Edgerrin James

Steven jackson

Priest Holmes

Travis Henry

Ahman Green

Ryan Grant

Frank Gore

Eddie George

Arian Foster

Matt Forte

Justin Forsett

Marshall Faulk

Robert Edwards

Warrick Dunn

Corey Dillon

Terrell Davis

Stephen Davis

Jamaal Charles

Ronnie Brown

Ahmad Bradshaw

Le'Veon Bell

Tiki Barber

Marion Barber

Shaun Alexander

Joseph Addai

A decent list, 55 names in all. Now here's the list of guys that did it for more than 3 seasons:

Ricky Williams

Tomlinson

Portis

Deuce

Curtis Martin

Edge

Foster

Faulk

Tiki Barber

THATS IT! 9 guys. Now obviously if you were drafted in the last 3 years you couldn't make this list, but I think you can see just how rare of company Lacy would be in to accomplish even lower numbers than what you're setting the bar at for more than ONE MORE SEASON. If we say the first 5 seasons the list gets even shorter, just LT, Edge, and Faulk, 3 of the best running backs EVER. And as an FYI, Lacy would be the only other player than Tomlinson to do it for 7 years (his 2 seasons plus the next 5 as you called his "floor". And remember, I set the bar lower than you did). So really, how likely is it that Lacy keeps this up? NOT THAT LIKELY. Now you may say, well Adrian Peterson didn't make this list, I'd bet you'd love to have him. Yes of course I would, but Peterson over his career has rushed for over 1,200 yds and 10 TD 6 times in his career. Lacy might not ever do that more than once, he may never do it at all! Remember, Aaron Rodgers will probably be the quarterback of this team for as long as Lacy is there. That means Lacy will NEVER be the focal point, will NEVER get enough touches to get really high yardage totals, etc. What you are suggesting is UNREALISTIC for Lacy.

So no, there aren't an abundance of RB doing better than Lacy right now, only around 5 a year, but within even 2 years Lacy probably doesn't even exist in the same class of back he does now. This is what the facts dictate.

What I find so interesting about this post is that I totally get what you are saying and I buy it and I think the odds are in your favor.

With that being said, let's look at the flip side of that: Only 9 guys have done this and Lacy hasn't had the opportunity to do it yet because he's only been in the league 2 years (can't do something 3 years when your career is 2). So, the other side of this statement MIGHT be that the only thing keeping Lacy off this list is time.

And if that's the case, then this statement is now :what is the value of the "under 25" RB who is one of only 10 players to be able to do this? Considering the list is 33% hall of famers and 7 of those 9 players were perennial league difference making RBS when they played (owners with those players back in their days always held an advantage), I'd have to say people need to decide which side of the risk scale they are standing on because it is looking more evident that people are EITHER going to be on the great side of a great sell high OR they are going to be trading away a once in a blue moon fantasy RB.

 

[amicsta]

To emphasize that note, here is the list of every RB drafted in the last 20 years who has had at least one season of 900 rushing yards, 8 rushing touchdowns, and 30 receptions:

Ricky Williams

Domanick Williams

Brian Westbrook

LaDainian Tomlinson

Fred Taylor

James Stewart

Lamar Smith

Kevin Smith

Steve Slaton

Trent Richardson

Ray Rice

Dominic Rhodes

Clinton Portis

Adrian Peterson

DeMarco Murray

Knowshon Moreno

Lamar Miller

LeSean McCoy

Deuce McAllister

Doug Martin

Curtis Martin

Marshawn Lynch

Jamal Lewis

Dorsey Levens

Eddie Lacy

LaMont Jordan

MJD

Thomas Jones

Larry Johnson

Chris Johnson

Edgerrin James

Steven jackson

Priest Holmes

Travis Henry

Ahman Green

Ryan Grant

Frank Gore

Eddie George

Arian Foster

Matt Forte

Justin Forsett

Marshall Faulk

Robert Edwards

Warrick Dunn

Corey Dillon

Terrell Davis

Stephen Davis

Jamaal Charles

Ronnie Brown

Ahmad Bradshaw

Le'Veon Bell

Tiki Barber

Marion Barber

Shaun Alexander

Joseph Addai

A decent list, 55 names in all. Now here's the list of guys that did it for more than 3 seasons:

Ricky Williams

Tomlinson

Portis

Deuce

Curtis Martin

Edge

Foster

Faulk

Tiki Barber

THATS IT! 9 guys. Now obviously if you were drafted in the last 3 years you couldn't make this list, but I think you can see just how rare of company Lacy would be in to accomplish even lower numbers than what you're setting the bar at for more than ONE MORE SEASON. If we say the first 5 seasons the list gets even shorter, just LT, Edge, and Faulk, 3 of the best running backs EVER. And as an FYI, Lacy would be the only other player than Tomlinson to do it for 7 years (his 2 seasons plus the next 5 as you called his "floor". And remember, I set the bar lower than you did). So really, how likely is it that Lacy keeps this up? NOT THAT LIKELY. Now you may say, well Adrian Peterson didn't make this list, I'd bet you'd love to have him. Yes of course I would, but Peterson over his career has rushed for over 1,200 yds and 10 TD 6 times in his career. Lacy might not ever do that more than once, he may never do it at all! Remember, Aaron Rodgers will probably be the quarterback of this team for as long as Lacy is there. That means Lacy will NEVER be the focal point, will NEVER get enough touches to get really high yardage totals, etc. What you are suggesting is UNREALISTIC for Lacy.

So no, there aren't an abundance of RB doing better than Lacy right now, only around 5 a year, but within even 2 years Lacy probably doesn't even exist in the same class of back he does now. This is what the facts dictate.

What I find so interesting about this post is that I totally get what you are saying and I buy it and I think the odds are in your favor.

With that being said, let's look at the flip side of that: Only 9 guys have done this and Lacy hasn't had the opportunity to do it yet because he's only been in the league 2 years (can't do something 3 years when your career is 2). So, the other side of this statement MIGHT be that the only thing keeping Lacy off this list is time.

And if that's the case, then this statement is now :what is the value of the "under 25" RB who is one of only 10 players to be able to do this? Considering the list is 33% hall of famers and 7 of those 9 players were perennial league difference making RBS when they played (owners with those players back in their days always held an advantage), I'd have to say people need to decide which side of the risk scale they are standing on because it is looking more evident that people are EITHER going to be on the great side of a great sell high OR they are going to be trading away a once in a blue moon fantasy RB.

Could not agree more, and this is where talent and situational evaluation comes into play. I think that Lacy is above average, but I don't think he's the same caliber of talent as those other guys on the list. At best I would say he's like a Deuce, but I don't see him ever getting the 325+ carry volume Deuce got in his best two seasons. Late Deuce seems like a more realistic comp. My issue with him is just the combination of those two factors: I don't think he's an elite talent and I don't see him receiving an elite workload. I think you have to have at least one or the other (some guys obviously had both). This part of the equation is obviously incredibly debatable, but I'm glad that we agree on the same basic premise. The rest is just the fun that comes along with playing the game!

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

I think the closest comparable in the NFL right now for Lacy is Lynch, this is a very big compliment but one that is warranted and deserved of Lacy.

I do think that Lacy is a unique talent. I would not go as far as saying he is a once in a generational talent, but he is definitely in the upper echelon of rb's in the game today and going forward.

In redraft you can chase those guys who break into the top 10 every year. In dynasty however, I am more than happy paying a premium price for a 3 down RB1 who is young and in a great situation.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

The important thing is to keep quoting a huge list of players in every post.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

The important thing is to keep quoting a huge list of players in every post.

lolz

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Eminence with another killer call.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Legitimate question. Big RBs always scare me, even those with qick feet. It seems like their shelf life isn't as long in the NFL, Jerome Bettis notwithstanding. I think the bust factor is much higher with the Lacy type of RBs. Let's face it, you or I could gain a 1000 yards behind the line at Alabama. I know that Trent Richardson is a good back, but Eddie Lacy isn't Trent Richardson. Not to mention that Richardson averaged less than 4 yards a carry last year.

 

[ZWK]

To emphasize that note, here is the list of every RB drafted in the last 20 years who has had at least one season of 900 rushing yards, 8 rushing touchdowns, and 30 receptions:

Here's the list of every RB who did this at least twice in their first 3 seasons:

Curtis Martin

Terrell Davis

Fred Taylor

Edgerrin James

LaDainian Tomlinson

Shaun Alexander

Deuce McAllister

Clinton Portis

Domanick Williams

Steven Jackson

Chris Johnson

Arian Foster

Eddie Lacy

Interesting that Domanick Williams is only one bust on this list of 13 RBs (assuming that you bought them immediately after their second 900yd/8td/30rec season).

 

[georg013]

Great list. Thanks for this.

 

[Shutout]

To emphasize that note, here is the list of every RB drafted in the last 20 years who has had at least one season of 900 rushing yards, 8 rushing touchdowns, and 30 receptions:

Here's the list of every RB who did this at least twice in their first 3 seasons:

Curtis Martin

Terrell Davis

Fred Taylor

Edgerrin James

LaDainian Tomlinson

Shaun Alexander

Deuce McAllister

Clinton Portis

Domanick Williams

Steven Jackson

Chris Johnson

Arian Foster

Eddie Lacy

Interesting that Domanick Williams is only one bust on this list of 13 RBs (assuming that you bought them immediately after their second 900yd/8td/30rec season).

Boy, now there's a list. Williams is the only bust and that's really due to injury (which is one play away for anyone). The rest of these guys were MASSIVE ff difference-makers and even if you didn't care for them, were worth their weight in gold in trades. I can remember crazy blockbuster deals involving Portis, LT, Alexander, in particular.

 

[amicsta]

To emphasize that note, here is the list of every RB drafted in the last 20 years who has had at least one season of 900 rushing yards, 8 rushing touchdowns, and 30 receptions:

Here's the list of every RB who did this at least twice in their first 3 seasons:

Curtis Martin

Terrell Davis

Fred Taylor

Edgerrin James

LaDainian Tomlinson

Shaun Alexander

Deuce McAllister

Clinton Portis

Domanick Williams

Steven Jackson

Chris Johnson

Arian Foster

Eddie Lacy

Interesting that Domanick Williams is only one bust on this list of 13 RBs (assuming that you bought them immediately after their second 900yd/8td/30rec season).

Boy, now there's a list. Williams is the only bust and that's really due to injury (which is one play away for anyone). The rest of these guys were MASSIVE ff difference-makers and even if you didn't care for them, were worth their weight in gold in trades. I can remember crazy blockbuster deals involving Portis, LT, Alexander, in particular.

Most were also the focal points of their offense, and many did not last that long or had a sudden, precipitous dropoff. I still stand by my original claim.

 

[amicsta]

To emphasize that note, here is the list of every RB drafted in the last 20 years who has had at least one season of 900 rushing yards, 8 rushing touchdowns, and 30 receptions:

Here's the list of every RB who did this at least twice in their first 3 seasons:

Curtis Martin (342 carries per year in first 2 years at given baseline)

Terrell Davis (357)

Fred Taylor (278)

Edgerrin James (378)

LaDainian Tomlinson (355.5)

Shaun Alexander (302)

Deuce McAllister (338)

Clinton Portis (281.5)

Domanick Williams (270)

Steven Jackson (300)

Chris Johnson (304.5)

Arian Foster (302.5)

Eddie Lacy (265)

Interesting that Domanick Williams is only one bust on this list of 13 RBs (assuming that you bought them immediately after their second 900yd/8td/30rec season).

Now you tell me, is Lacy's workload closer to the busts/guys who didn't do it more than 3 years, or the studs who were elite RB1 for long periods of time? His small workload puts a huge cap on his ceiling. Impossible to compare a guy like Lacy to most of this list, comprised of 300 carry studs.

 

[unckeyherb]

To emphasize that note, here is the list of every RB drafted in the last 20 years who has had at least one season of 900 rushing yards, 8 rushing touchdowns, and 30 receptions:

Here's the list of every RB who did this at least twice in their first 3 seasons:

Curtis Martin (342 carries per year in first 2 years at given baseline)

Terrell Davis (357)

Fred Taylor (278)

Edgerrin James (378)

LaDainian Tomlinson (355.5)

Shaun Alexander (302)

Deuce McAllister (338)

Clinton Portis (281.5)

Domanick Williams (270)

Steven Jackson (300)

Chris Johnson (304.5)

Arian Foster (302.5)

Eddie Lacy (265)

Interesting that Domanick Williams is only one bust on this list of 13 RBs (assuming that you bought them immediately after their second 900yd/8td/30rec season).

Now you tell me, is Lacy's workload closer to the busts/guys who didn't do it more than 3 years, or the studs who were elite RB1 for long periods of time? His small workload puts a huge cap on his ceiling. Impossible to compare a guy like Lacy to most of this list, comprised of 300 carry studs.

No one gets that kind of workload anymore. Murray is an outlier at 392 carries, followed by Shady at 312. Those were the only 2 RBs with 300+ carries last year. Lacy ranked 9th overall with 246 carries. Others that had more than him were Bell (290), Lynch (280), Forte (266), Morris (265), Foster (260) and Gore (255). Lacy finished under all the RB's listed except for Morris, Gore and Shady, whom he outscored by 65-100 ffps.

The fact is that in order to be a top shelf fantasy RB these days you need to either get a ton of carries, see: Murray, Bell, Lynch and/or you need to be heavily involved in your team's passing game, see: Forte, Foster, Lacy, Charles or both. Its not coincidence that the top guys last year met both criteria (Bell, Lynch, Murray).

Lacy getting 250ish carries and 40+ receptions should continue. He should be a top RB based on that workload. TD's fluctuate and can make a typically top 5-6 RB the #1 overall. He is one of the few RB's in the league that you can reasonably expect to get 10-12 TD's each year with a high scoring offense that "could" give him more opportunities.

 

[amicsta]

To emphasize that note, here is the list of every RB drafted in the last 20 years who has had at least one season of 900 rushing yards, 8 rushing touchdowns, and 30 receptions:

Here's the list of every RB who did this at least twice in their first 3 seasons:

Curtis Martin (342 carries per year in first 2 years at given baseline)

Terrell Davis (357)

Fred Taylor (278)

Edgerrin James (378)

LaDainian Tomlinson (355.5)

Shaun Alexander (302)

Deuce McAllister (338)

Clinton Portis (281.5)

Domanick Williams (270)

Steven Jackson (300)

Chris Johnson (304.5)

Arian Foster (302.5)

Eddie Lacy (265)

Interesting that Domanick Williams is only one bust on this list of 13 RBs (assuming that you bought them immediately after their second 900yd/8td/30rec season).

Now you tell me, is Lacy's workload closer to the busts/guys who didn't do it more than 3 years, or the studs who were elite RB1 for long periods of time? His small workload puts a huge cap on his ceiling. Impossible to compare a guy like Lacy to most of this list, comprised of 300 carry studs.

No one gets that kind of workload anymore. Murray is an outlier at 392 carries, followed by Shady at 312. Those were the only 2 RBs with 300+ carries last year. Lacy ranked 9th overall with 246 carries. Others that had more than him were Bell (290), Lynch (280), Forte (266), Morris (265), Foster (260) and Gore (255). Lacy finished under all the RB's listed except for Morris, Gore and Shady, whom he outscored by 65-100 ffps.

The fact is that in order to be a top shelf fantasy RB these days you need to either get a ton of carries, see: Murray, Bell, Lynch and/or you need to be heavily involved in your team's passing game, see: Forte, Foster, Lacy, Charles or both. Its not coincidence that the top guys last year met both criteria (Bell, Lynch, Murray).

Lacy getting 250ish carries and 40+ receptions should continue. He should be a top RB based on that workload. TD's fluctuate and can make a typically top 5-6 RB the #1 overall. He is one of the few RB's in the league that you can reasonably expect to get 10-12 TD's each year with a high scoring offense that "could" give him more opportunities.

As I said before, Lacy had a lot of things break right for him last year and was still just RB5 in PPR. His average finish so far is RB7 based on last years final standings and extrapolating his per game numbers to 16 games. I'm not sure he can be much more than that.

 

[werdnoynek]

To emphasize that note, here is the list of every RB drafted in the last 20 years who has had at least one season of 900 rushing yards, 8 rushing touchdowns, and 30 receptions:

Here's the list of every RB who did this at least twice in their first 3 seasons:

Curtis Martin (342 carries per year in first 2 years at given baseline)

Terrell Davis (357)

Fred Taylor (278)

Edgerrin James (378)

LaDainian Tomlinson (355.5)

Shaun Alexander (302)

Deuce McAllister (338)

Clinton Portis (281.5)

Domanick Williams (270)

Steven Jackson (300)

Chris Johnson (304.5)

Arian Foster (302.5)

Eddie Lacy (265)

Interesting that Domanick Williams is only one bust on this list of 13 RBs (assuming that you bought them immediately after their second 900yd/8td/30rec season).

Now you tell me, is Lacy's workload closer to the busts/guys who didn't do it more than 3 years, or the studs who were elite RB1 for long periods of time? His small workload puts a huge cap on his ceiling. Impossible to compare a guy like Lacy to most of this list, comprised of 300 carry studs.

No one gets that kind of workload anymore. Murray is an outlier at 392 carries, followed by Shady at 312. Those were the only 2 RBs with 300+ carries last year. Lacy ranked 9th overall with 246 carries. Others that had more than him were Bell (290), Lynch (280), Forte (266), Morris (265), Foster (260) and Gore (255). Lacy finished under all the RB's listed except for Morris, Gore and Shady, whom he outscored by 65-100 ffps.

The fact is that in order to be a top shelf fantasy RB these days you need to either get a ton of carries, see: Murray, Bell, Lynch and/or you need to be heavily involved in your team's passing game, see: Forte, Foster, Lacy, Charles or both. Its not coincidence that the top guys last year met both criteria (Bell, Lynch, Murray).

Lacy getting 250ish carries and 40+ receptions should continue. He should be a top RB based on that workload. TD's fluctuate and can make a typically top 5-6 RB the #1 overall. He is one of the few RB's in the league that you can reasonably expect to get 10-12 TD's each year with a high scoring offense that "could" give him more opportunities.

As I said before, Lacy had a lot of things break right for him last year and was still just RB5 in PPR. His average finish so far is RB7 based on last years final standings and extrapolating his per game numbers to 16 games. I'm not sure he can be much more than that.

you're acting like it's a bad thing that he was "just" RB5...

 

[amicsta]

To emphasize that note, here is the list of every RB drafted in the last 20 years who has had at least one season of 900 rushing yards, 8 rushing touchdowns, and 30 receptions:

Here's the list of every RB who did this at least twice in their first 3 seasons:

Curtis Martin (342 carries per year in first 2 years at given baseline)

Terrell Davis (357)

Fred Taylor (278)

Edgerrin James (378)

LaDainian Tomlinson (355.5)

Shaun Alexander (302)

Deuce McAllister (338)

Clinton Portis (281.5)

Domanick Williams (270)

Steven Jackson (300)

Chris Johnson (304.5)

Arian Foster (302.5)

Eddie Lacy (265)

Interesting that Domanick Williams is only one bust on this list of 13 RBs (assuming that you bought them immediately after their second 900yd/8td/30rec season).

Now you tell me, is Lacy's workload closer to the busts/guys who didn't do it more than 3 years, or the studs who were elite RB1 for long periods of time? His small workload puts a huge cap on his ceiling. Impossible to compare a guy like Lacy to most of this list, comprised of 300 carry studs.

No one gets that kind of workload anymore. Murray is an outlier at 392 carries, followed by Shady at 312. Those were the only 2 RBs with 300+ carries last year. Lacy ranked 9th overall with 246 carries. Others that had more than him were Bell (290), Lynch (280), Forte (266), Morris (265), Foster (260) and Gore (255). Lacy finished under all the RB's listed except for Morris, Gore and Shady, whom he outscored by 65-100 ffps.

The fact is that in order to be a top shelf fantasy RB these days you need to either get a ton of carries, see: Murray, Bell, Lynch and/or you need to be heavily involved in your team's passing game, see: Forte, Foster, Lacy, Charles or both. Its not coincidence that the top guys last year met both criteria (Bell, Lynch, Murray).

Lacy getting 250ish carries and 40+ receptions should continue. He should be a top RB based on that workload. TD's fluctuate and can make a typically top 5-6 RB the #1 overall. He is one of the few RB's in the league that you can reasonably expect to get 10-12 TD's each year with a high scoring offense that "could" give him more opportunities.

As I said before, Lacy had a lot of things break right for him last year and was still just RB5 in PPR. His average finish so far is RB7 based on last years final standings and extrapolating his per game numbers to 16 games. I'm not sure he can be much more than that.

you're acting like it's a bad thing that he was "just" RB5...

I'm just saying look at who we're comparing this guy to. Lacy has a limited ceiling and there's a decent chance 2014 represents a career year. I don't see what makes him untradeable. Again, solid RB1, but being valued as much more than that.

 

[amicsta]

We're going around a merry-go-round at this point. I don't think anyone's going to change their mind, we just keep repeating the same things.

 

[unckeyherb]

To emphasize that note, here is the list of every RB drafted in the last 20 years who has had at least one season of 900 rushing yards, 8 rushing touchdowns, and 30 receptions:

Here's the list of every RB who did this at least twice in their first 3 seasons:

Curtis Martin (342 carries per year in first 2 years at given baseline)

Terrell Davis (357)

Fred Taylor (278)

Edgerrin James (378)

LaDainian Tomlinson (355.5)

Shaun Alexander (302)

Deuce McAllister (338)

Clinton Portis (281.5)

Domanick Williams (270)

Steven Jackson (300)

Chris Johnson (304.5)

Arian Foster (302.5)

Eddie Lacy (265)

Interesting that Domanick Williams is only one bust on this list of 13 RBs (assuming that you bought them immediately after their second 900yd/8td/30rec season).

Now you tell me, is Lacy's workload closer to the busts/guys who didn't do it more than 3 years, or the studs who were elite RB1 for long periods of time? His small workload puts a huge cap on his ceiling. Impossible to compare a guy like Lacy to most of this list, comprised of 300 carry studs.

No one gets that kind of workload anymore. Murray is an outlier at 392 carries, followed by Shady at 312. Those were the only 2 RBs with 300+ carries last year. Lacy ranked 9th overall with 246 carries. Others that had more than him were Bell (290), Lynch (280), Forte (266), Morris (265), Foster (260) and Gore (255). Lacy finished under all the RB's listed except for Morris, Gore and Shady, whom he outscored by 65-100 ffps.

The fact is that in order to be a top shelf fantasy RB these days you need to either get a ton of carries, see: Murray, Bell, Lynch and/or you need to be heavily involved in your team's passing game, see: Forte, Foster, Lacy, Charles or both. Its not coincidence that the top guys last year met both criteria (Bell, Lynch, Murray).

Lacy getting 250ish carries and 40+ receptions should continue. He should be a top RB based on that workload. TD's fluctuate and can make a typically top 5-6 RB the #1 overall. He is one of the few RB's in the league that you can reasonably expect to get 10-12 TD's each year with a high scoring offense that "could" give him more opportunities.

As I said before, Lacy had a lot of things break right for him last year and was still just RB5 in PPR. His average finish so far is RB7 based on last years final standings and extrapolating his per game numbers to 16 games. I'm not sure he can be much more than that.

What exactly does a lot if things breaking right for him mean?

Also, are you saying that averaging RB7 for the last two years is NOT good? To be clear, the only RB's that have averaged a better finish than Lacy over the last two years are Murray, Forte, Lynch and Charles. not really sure what your point is with the above.

I'm just saying look at who we're comparing this guy to. Lacy has a limited ceiling and there's a decent chance 2014 represents a career year. I don't see what makes him untradeable. Again, solid RB1, but being valued as much more than that.

Why is there a decent chance that 2014 represents a career year? He had a marginal increase in FF points from the year before, when he was a top 8 RB. What about his situation makes you think he will now regress and not match his only two years in the league?

 

[amicsta]

To emphasize that note, here is the list of every RB drafted in the last 20 years who has had at least one season of 900 rushing yards, 8 rushing touchdowns, and 30 receptions:

Here's the list of every RB who did this at least twice in their first 3 seasons:

Curtis Martin (342 carries per year in first 2 years at given baseline)

Terrell Davis (357)

Fred Taylor (278)

Edgerrin James (378)

LaDainian Tomlinson (355.5)

Shaun Alexander (302)

Deuce McAllister (338)

Clinton Portis (281.5)

Domanick Williams (270)

Steven Jackson (300)

Chris Johnson (304.5)

Arian Foster (302.5)

Eddie Lacy (265)

Interesting that Domanick Williams is only one bust on this list of 13 RBs (assuming that you bought them immediately after their second 900yd/8td/30rec season).

Now you tell me, is Lacy's workload closer to the busts/guys who didn't do it more than 3 years, or the studs who were elite RB1 for long periods of time? His small workload puts a huge cap on his ceiling. Impossible to compare a guy like Lacy to most of this list, comprised of 300 carry studs.

No one gets that kind of workload anymore. Murray is an outlier at 392 carries, followed by Shady at 312. Those were the only 2 RBs with 300+ carries last year. Lacy ranked 9th overall with 246 carries. Others that had more than him were Bell (290), Lynch (280), Forte (266), Morris (265), Foster (260) and Gore (255). Lacy finished under all the RB's listed except for Morris, Gore and Shady, whom he outscored by 65-100 ffps.

The fact is that in order to be a top shelf fantasy RB these days you need to either get a ton of carries, see: Murray, Bell, Lynch and/or you need to be heavily involved in your team's passing game, see: Forte, Foster, Lacy, Charles or both. Its not coincidence that the top guys last year met both criteria (Bell, Lynch, Murray).

Lacy getting 250ish carries and 40+ receptions should continue. He should be a top RB based on that workload. TD's fluctuate and can make a typically top 5-6 RB the #1 overall. He is one of the few RB's in the league that you can reasonably expect to get 10-12 TD's each year with a high scoring offense that "could" give him more opportunities.

As I said before, Lacy had a lot of things break right for him last year and was still just RB5 in PPR. His average finish so far is RB7 based on last years final standings and extrapolating his per game numbers to 16 games. I'm not sure he can be much more than that.

What exactly does a lot if things breaking right for him mean?

Also, are you saying that averaging RB7 for the last two years is NOT good? To be clear, the only RB's that have averaged a better finish than Lacy over the last two years are Murray, Forte, Lynch and Charles. not really sure what your point is with the above.

I'm saying that on essentially the same passing game usage he got in 2013, he saw almost a 10 receiving yards per game jump and 4 additional touchdowns. Looks fluky to me.

Again, I don't think people are reading my posts clearly. I never said that Lacy isn't good. I've said this whole time that he's a good player and a solid RB1. My point is that people are valuing him higher than that right now in dynasty, like a top 3 back. I'm not sure he'll ever get there. Hence, I think you should trade him at his elevated value while you can.

 

[georg013]

Maybe I am reading you the wrong way but you post as if what Lacy has done is just, ok.

We are talking about a 24 year old running back in an explosive offense, playing with a hall of fame quarterback, and putting up back to back 1,000 yard seasons WITH capped carries. He finished top 7 two years in a row. If you believe a player like him should come at a discount and shouldn't be valued highly well perhaps you should re-evaluate your valuation system. If I owned him, I wouldn't sell him for anything less than top 3 prices and I sure in the hell wouldn't expect to get him cheaply either.

 

[unckeyherb]

Ah gotcha. I disagree with the fluky part. Guy caught more passes and capitalized on them, breaking a few long runs off and scoring on four. He did his job and succeded.

I agree with your second part though. I said a page ago that the return on investment probably is at its highest point and that I'd be shopping him this year, but would certainly not be disappointed if he remained on my team come week one.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

To emphasize that note, here is the list of every RB drafted in the last 20 years who has had at least one season of 900 rushing yards, 8 rushing touchdowns, and 30 receptions:

Here's the list of every RB who did this at least twice in their first 3 seasons:

Curtis Martin (342 carries per year in first 2 years at given baseline)

Terrell Davis (357)

Fred Taylor (278)

Edgerrin James (378)

LaDainian Tomlinson (355.5)

Shaun Alexander (302)

Deuce McAllister (338)

Clinton Portis (281.5)

Domanick Williams (270)

Steven Jackson (300)

Chris Johnson (304.5)

Arian Foster (302.5)

Eddie Lacy (265)

Interesting that Domanick Williams is only one bust on this list of 13 RBs (assuming that you bought them immediately after their second 900yd/8td/30rec season).

Now you tell me, is Lacy's workload closer to the busts/guys who didn't do it more than 3 years, or the studs who were elite RB1 for long periods of time? His small workload puts a huge cap on his ceiling. Impossible to compare a guy like Lacy to most of this list, comprised of 300 carry studs.

No one gets that kind of workload anymore. Murray is an outlier at 392 carries, followed by Shady at 312. Those were the only 2 RBs with 300+ carries last year. Lacy ranked 9th overall with 246 carries. Others that had more than him were Bell (290), Lynch (280), Forte (266), Morris (265), Foster (260) and Gore (255). Lacy finished under all the RB's listed except for Morris, Gore and Shady, whom he outscored by 65-100 ffps.

The fact is that in order to be a top shelf fantasy RB these days you need to either get a ton of carries, see: Murray, Bell, Lynch and/or you need to be heavily involved in your team's passing game, see: Forte, Foster, Lacy, Charles or both. Its not coincidence that the top guys last year met both criteria (Bell, Lynch, Murray).

Lacy getting 250ish carries and 40+ receptions should continue. He should be a top RB based on that workload. TD's fluctuate and can make a typically top 5-6 RB the #1 overall. He is one of the few RB's in the league that you can reasonably expect to get 10-12 TD's each year with a high scoring offense that "could" give him more opportunities.

As I said before, Lacy had a lot of things break right for him last year and was still just RB5 in PPR. His average finish so far is RB7 based on last years final standings and extrapolating his per game numbers to 16 games. I'm not sure he can be much more than that.

you're acting like it's a bad thing that he was "just" RB5...

When you have to work this hard to make a player look bad (and fail at it), what's the point?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

. My point is that people are valuing him higher than that right now in dynasty, like a top 3 back. I'm not sure he'll ever get there.

If he spent the nest 5-6 seasons as a top 10 RB, shouldn't he be treated like a top 3 dynasty RB - even if he never actually finishes as high as 3?

 

[amicsta]

. My point is that people are valuing him higher than that right now in dynasty, like a top 3 back. I'm not sure he'll ever get there.

If he spent the nest 5-6 seasons as a top 10 RB, shouldn't he be treated like a top 3 dynasty RB - even if he never actually finishes as high as 3?

This was my previous point, that it is highly unlikely he does what he's doing now for 5 or 6 more seasons. That's where all the players lists and everything came from. People see his age and assume that it means he has a bunch of good years left, when history tells us that simply isn't true. Is it possible? Sure I suppose so. But I'll play the odds and say it doesn't happen.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

. My point is that people are valuing him higher than that right now in dynasty, like a top 3 back. I'm not sure he'll ever get there.

If he spent the nest 5-6 seasons as a top 10 RB, shouldn't he be treated like a top 3 dynasty RB - even if he never actually finishes as high as 3?

This was my previous point, that it is highly unlikely he does what he's doing now for 5 or 6 more seasons. That's where all the players lists and everything came from. People see his age and assume that it means he has a bunch of good years left, when history tells us that simply isn't true. Is it possible? Sure I suppose so. But I'll play the odds and say it doesn't happen.

History doesn't tell us that though. The opposite was actually pointed out to you. Change the text you bolded to 4 out of the next 6 seasons or even 3 out of the next 5 seasons (because injuries and down seasons do happen) - does that change anything?

I don't own Lacy anywhere and if I did, I wouldn't say he's untradeable - but not every player needs to be treated like a stock (i.e. sell high), because sometimes the asset(s) you get back has every bit as much risk.

Lacy is a top 3 dynasty RB right now - its almost impossible to argue otherwise - the biggest reason being the dynasty landscape at the position is pretty bleak right now. Saying trade him now for a top WR because that position is less volatile ignores the fact that replacing his RB slot in your starting lineup is much tougher to do than finding legitimate starting WRs from the vast pool available.

 

[georg013]

Are there Lacy quality RBs available that I don't know about? If so, how can I get them for top 25 prices?