Anyone who picks LJ #1 overall will be disappointed (1 Viewer)

[Sand]

"Those who fail to remember the past are doomed to make draft decisions based on two quarters of preseason football"

 

[Todem]

The people who watch pre-season for getting a read on the starters are watching it for the wrong reason.

In anycase wait till the 3rd pre-season game at least when they actually gameplan and script out the first drive and do a dress rehersal for week one.

Even then it means nothing for the most part.

But gupppies never learn, they just get eaten.

 

[Shiver44]

People were overhyping Johnson anyway. Using the "project his stats over 16 games..." line that has been overused. Last used on; McGahee, K. Jones and J. Jones last year. How'd that work out? I wouldn't have confidence in any of the Chiefs Offensive players. That Offense is ancient, they are on a slippery slope to the dreaded rebuilding period.

Besides, all the losses they've taken, there is no way Johnson will even reach last year's numbers. The lack of good playcalling, good run blocking and defenses honing in on the run game. Johnson has major disappointment written all over him. Some refuse to see it, like last year with Willis McGahee.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

While we're on the Chiefs, is Boomer Grigsby going to make this team? Just curious.

 

[Sweetness_34]

Frankly, I think we should at least see what the 3rd preseason shows us before making any judgements on LJ (even then, I doubt I will change my mind on him but still.....)

However, having said that, one thing that I did pick up from today was that the KC D looks to be as bad as before. Now, they must be plahying simple schemes etc, but the DL was getting blown off the ball many many times (on running and passing plays). What this tells me is that KC will need to pass quite a bit in 4th quarters, especially since they play in a division loaded with O talent. SOmething to keep in mind.....and keep thinking about. I am not saying this is any reason to change any rankings etc. But one of the reasons I loved LJ (other than the std reasons that everyone knows), was the fact that I believed KC improved it's D this off season (draft + Ty Law in FA). Now I know Tamba Hali is not yet on the field, but this is one more area to chew on regarding LJ.

 

[JMJ]

Do yourself a favor: Look at the numbers LJ put up in two-TE, one back formations when Roaf was out last year before deciding if you want to pass on LJ at #1. Granted, there are no stats of LJ's without Vermeil as H.C., but Edwards is the same guy who handed the rushing title to an aged Curtis Martin a couple years ago and with a line far inferior to what LJ has to work with this season.

Uhhhh .... you my friend are very uninformed.The Jets OLine won that rushing title for Curtis Martin. Curtis Martin won the rushing title in 2004 and did not have a SINGLE run of OVER 25 yards. Not a single one!!!!! How did he do it? The Jets OLine was blowing people off the ball and making holes that other RBs with more speed and elusiveness the Cumar could have broke HR runs for often. If Lamont Jordan started and got the lion's share of carries for the Jets that season he could have put up number similar to LJ last season.Kevin Mawae is a perrenial pro bowler, Pete Kendall was LG and played at a pro bowl level all season long in 2004 and he is heavily respected around the league, Kareem McKenzie is a mamoth of a RT who in the past two years helped block for Curtis Martin to win a rushing title and for Tiki Barber to put up the type of season he put up last year (coincidence? I think not), Brandon Moore, like Kareem McKenzie is a mamoth of a RG who is the prototypical type of run-blocking guard who struggles in pass protection because of his brute size and strength, and 2004 is the lest good season the Jets got out of Jason Fabini's back.The Jets OLine in 2004 was a top 3 offensive line in all the league and any other RB besides Curtis Martin could have challenged for 2,000 yards that season.I'm a Jets' season ticket holder and Herm Edwards will run your team into the ground with his lacksidasical* training camp practices. Be ready to watch an out of shape and undisciplined football team this season. The Jets have been successful recentley in spite of Herman Edwards; not because of him. But hey, at least the players will love their new coach and how easy his practices are. There is a reason why when the Jets traded their head coach ..... THEIR HEAD COACH .... the buying price was only a 4rth round draft pick.

 

[nygiants56]

Take out his longest run of 11 yards

I hate it when people say this.Cleveland,

Why? Granted, if it was a 53 yard scoring run it would be different, but 11 yards is hardly going to win you a championship trophy. My point was valid. Without that 11 yards his performance has been less than awe-inspiring.

so what?! it is PRESEASON...lets not forget that they play Oakland twice, SF, Cincy, Az., St Lou... those should easily be 100-150 yard games, with or without Roaf.. lets not forget the Giants have one of the best d-lines and corps of LB's in the NFL, and they threw the kitchen sink at the Chiefs last night, in an effort to stop the run, because they got pushed around the week before in Baltimore..Maybe Lj's #'s aren't going to be what people think, but he's still going to be a top 5 RB...

 

[popeye]

You're funeral. I'll check back when LJ barely rushes for more than a grand and you are at the bottom of your league.

Would that be week 9 or 10?

 

[Banger]

This was posted earlier in the summer re:stats when Roaf was out (note that Wellbourne was in, Richardson was in, Vermeil and Saunders were in).....

If you dig a little deeper and look at who they ran against during Roaf's injuries...

Oak (ranked 25th): Team combined for 36 attempts, 125 yards rushing and 2 TD's.

--------------(3 yards under Oakland's average, .5 TD's above Oakland's average)

Den (ranked 2): Team combined for 22 attempts, 74 yards and 0 TD's.

--------------(11 yards under Denver's average, .635 TD's below Denver's average)

Phi (ranked 21st): Team combined for 27 attempts, 144 yards and 1 TD.

--------------(23.3 yards above Philly 's average, .25 TD above Philly's average)

Oak (ranked 25th): Team combined for 24 attempts, 114 yards and 2 TD's.

--------------(14 yards below Oakland's average, .5 TD's above Oakland's average)

Buff (ranked 31st): Team combined for 32 rushes, 150 yards and 0 TD's.

---------------(12.2 yards above Buffalo's average, 1.38 TD's below Buffalo's average)

Hou (ranked 32nd): Team combined for 42 attempts, 226 yards and 2 TD's.

---------------(82.1 yards above Houston's average, .69 TD's above Houston's avearge)

Net diferential: +89.6 yards ( ~15 yards/game)

---------------- -0.07 TD's (~ 0.01 TD's/game)

So basically, without Roaf they were an average rushing team against the worst teams in the league.....Now replace Roaf with Turley and you see why I and some others are skeptical.

ETA...I still think LJ is the #3 back but I think we can forget about the outrageous 2000+ yard 25 td predictions.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Lost head coach, most seccussfull FF RB HC in recent historyLost OC, most successfull FF RB OC in recent history

I was worried just after these two, even before Richardson and half the line went packing. But for some reason, a whole lot of people tend to not worry about these two guys at all and think that Herm will come in without missing a beat because Cmart did ok with him. It's like taking an all-time great like Marshall Faulk and replacing him with an above average guy like Steven Jackson and thinking the numbers will be the same. Above average (Herm...if you can even say above) does not equal one of the all time greats (Vermeil/Saunders strictly in terms of FF RB success).

 

[cr8f]

If the Chiefs dont get a LT soon I wouldnt be excited to take Green or LJ.ROAF !!! THEY NEED YOU !

Turley isn't cutting it. They do need someone. I watched him in college too and had a much different opinion of him.

 

[Tong Po]

First off you being a (so called chiefs fan) lends you no more credit on the subject.Second this post is GAY. Third my draft is next week I have numro uno and will be picking LJ w/o looking back. Why you ask?Because im a shark posting in a guppie thread.

You're funeral. I'll check back when LJ barely rushes for more than a grand and you are at the bottom of your league.

Please do.

Thanks, I will. Let me ask you a question. Did you ever watch LJ perform against a good rush defense in college? The reason I ask is because it is analagous to how he will perform this year without Roaf, Richardson and probably Waters and/or Shields at some point. Average. If that is what you want at 1.01 then I wish I was in your league.

Let me ask YOU something. How is it "analagous" to compare how a professional runningback will perform without his best offensive lineman for the KC Chiefs... to how he ran against good defenses 4 years ago while he was in college playing for Penn State? I would dare to guess that Larry Johnson has improved on his skills as a runningback since his days in college. Not exactly seeing the correlation there.

 

[mad sweeney]

Take out his longest run of 11 yards

I hate it when people say this.

Why? Granted, if it was a 53 yard scoring run it would be different, but 11 yards is hardly going to win you a championship trophy. My point was valid. Without that 11 yards his performance has been less than awe-inspiring.

But those long runs bring up the average. Every RB's game stats are tilted with a few longer runs. It's true that it tilts perceptions, but it happens every game. If the guy gets 100+ a game and 2 TDs who cares 70 yardcame from 3 20+yard runs and the other 30 came from 19 pedestrian 2-3 yard rushes? I agree to a point that long ones make someone look better at times than they were, but it isn't as strong an indication as many make it out to be.That said, I took LT with #1.

 

[massraider]

I think if a person steps back, and looks at the big picture, it's fair to question whether or not LJ will put up 16 games of the same numbers as last year, but a bit premature to think he won't be right at the top.

The offensive line looked bad last night, with no Roaf, no Shields, no Welbourn, and no Waters. Assuming Roaf stays gone (and I think he is), the real concern to me would be the pass protection from the LT position. Just going by what I saw from Turley last night (a very, very small sample size), I think he still has the technique, but doesn't have 300 pounds behind it anymore. I think he'll be adequate/average in the run blocking game, and they still have Jason Dunn and Gonzo as solid run-blocking TE's. They lost Welbourn, but he was the weak link anyways, although still not a bad lineman. Between Black and Sampson, I doubt the drop off will be noticeable at RT.

Basically, while I think that the loss of Roaf will hurt the pass pro, I don't see it dropping this from one of the best run-block lines in the league to below average. I still think they'll be above average as a rush unit.

A quick word about Tony Richardson: On the list of things that contributed to LJ's success, I put T-Rich near the bottom. This guy is simply not Lorenzo Neal. T-Rich's value was as a pass blocker on passing downs, a rush option on draws and such, and as an outlet receiver. The KC TE's last year were far, far more valuable in the run game last year. This isn't to say that T-Rich isn't a good run blocker. I just saw LJ getting a LOT of yards last year from a one-back/two-TE set.

The loss of Al Saunders, and the switch from Vermiel to Edwards: I think the Chiefs will score less this year, Edwards IS definitely a conservative coach, but I'm not so sure that that is contrary to LJ getting his. Don't conservative coaches like to run the ball?

Regarding the coaching change affecting the O-line: This was not a Denver system, relying on the scheme to get the most out of lesser linemen. Waters, Shields, and Weigmann are all good linemen, and haven't forgotten how to block. Solari is still there, maintaing continuity. The interior of that line remains intact, it just wasn't intact last night.

The guys who's rankings are in danger to me, are Green, Kennison, and to a lesser extent, Gonzales. If Turley can't hold up at LT, Green will be doing nothing but 3 and 5 step drops. Which we saw a lot of last night (and which I wish the Raiders had done this preseason. But I digress). I think Gonzo will still get a ton of targets, but I wonder if Green will have enough pass pro to find Kennison, week in and week out.

Just some thoughts.

 

[Banger]

I think if a person steps back, and looks at the big picture, it's fair to question whether or not LJ will put up 16 games of the same numbers as last year, but a bit premature to think he won't be right at the top.

The offensive line looked bad last night, with no Roaf, no Shields, no Welbourn, and no Waters. Assuming Roaf stays gone (and I think he is), the real concern to me would be the pass protection from the LT position. Just going by what I saw from Turley last night (a very, very small sample size), I think he still has the technique, but doesn't have 300 pounds behind it anymore. I think he'll be adequate/average in the run blocking game, and they still have Jason Dunn and Gonzo as solid run-blocking TE's. They lost Welbourn, but he was the weak link anyways, although still not a bad lineman. Between Black and Sampson, I doubt the drop off will be noticeable at RT.

Basically, while I think that the loss of Roaf will hurt the pass pro, I don't see it dropping this from one of the best run-block lines in the league to below average. I still think they'll be above average as a rush unit.

A quick word about Tony Richardson: On the list of things that contributed to LJ's success, I put T-Rich near the bottom. This guy is simply not Lorenzo Neal. T-Rich's value was as a pass blocker on passing downs, a rush option on draws and such, and as an outlet receiver. The KC TE's last year were far, far more valuable in the run game last year. This isn't to say that T-Rich isn't a good run blocker. I just saw LJ getting a LOT of yards last year from a one-back/two-TE set.

The loss of Al Saunders, and the switch from Vermiel to Edwards: I think the Chiefs will score less this year, Edwards IS definitely a conservative coach, but I'm not so sure that that is contrary to LJ getting his. Don't conservative coaches like to run the ball?

Regarding the coaching change affecting the O-line: This was not a Denver system, relying on the scheme to get the most out of lesser linemen. Waters, Shields, and Weigmann are all good linemen, and haven't forgotten how to block. Solari is still there, maintaing continuity. The interior of that line remains intact, it just wasn't intact last night.

The guys who's rankings are in danger to me, are Green, Kennison, and to a lesser extent, Gonzales. If Turley can't hold up at LT, Green will be doing nothing but 3 and 5 step drops. Which we saw a lot of last night (and which I wish the Raiders had done this preseason. But I digress). I think Gonzo will still get a ton of targets, but I wonder if Green will have enough pass pro to find Kennison, week in and week out.

Just some thoughts.

On the Richardson thing...you're right that LJ did far better in the single back set than the I (with Richardson blocking) on a yardage/YPC basis but he scored 3 td's from the single back as opposed to 13-14 in the I. Just something to consider when they get near the goal line and last year they'd run left behind Roaf/Ricardson which was money in the bank and now??

 

[mr blond]

I think if a person steps back, and looks at the big picture, it's fair to question whether or not LJ will put up 16 games of the same numbers as last year, but a bit premature to think he won't be right at the top.

The offensive line looked bad last night, with no Roaf, no Shields, no Welbourn, and no Waters. Assuming Roaf stays gone (and I think he is), the real concern to me would be the pass protection from the LT position. Just going by what I saw from Turley last night (a very, very small sample size), I think he still has the technique, but doesn't have 300 pounds behind it anymore. I think he'll be adequate/average in the run blocking game, and they still have Jason Dunn and Gonzo as solid run-blocking TE's. They lost Welbourn, but he was the weak link anyways, although still not a bad lineman. Between Black and Sampson, I doubt the drop off will be noticeable at RT.

Basically, while I think that the loss of Roaf will hurt the pass pro, I don't see it dropping this from one of the best run-block lines in the league to below average. I still think they'll be above average as a rush unit.

A quick word about Tony Richardson: On the list of things that contributed to LJ's success, I put T-Rich near the bottom. This guy is simply not Lorenzo Neal. T-Rich's value was as a pass blocker on passing downs, a rush option on draws and such, and as an outlet receiver. The KC TE's last year were far, far more valuable in the run game last year. This isn't to say that T-Rich isn't a good run blocker. I just saw LJ getting a LOT of yards last year from a one-back/two-TE set.

The loss of Al Saunders, and the switch from Vermiel to Edwards: I think the Chiefs will score less this year, Edwards IS definitely a conservative coach, but I'm not so sure that that is contrary to LJ getting his. Don't conservative coaches like to run the ball?

Regarding the coaching change affecting the O-line: This was not a Denver system, relying on the scheme to get the most out of lesser linemen. Waters, Shields, and Weigmann are all good linemen, and haven't forgotten how to block. Solari is still there, maintaing continuity. The interior of that line remains intact, it just wasn't intact last night.

The guys who's rankings are in danger to me, are Green, Kennison, and to a lesser extent, Gonzales. If Turley can't hold up at LT, Green will be doing nothing but 3 and 5 step drops. Which we saw a lot of last night (and which I wish the Raiders had done this preseason. But I digress). I think Gonzo will still get a ton of targets, but I wonder if Green will have enough pass pro to find Kennison, week in and week out.

Just some thoughts.

On the Richardson thing...you're right that LJ did far better in the single back set than the I (with Richardson blocking) on a yardage/YPC basis but he scored 3 td's from the single back as opposed to 13-14 in the I. Just something to consider when they get near the goal line and last year they'd run left behind Roaf/Ricardson which was money in the bank and now??

 

[massraider]

I think if a person steps back, and looks at the big picture, it's fair to question whether or not LJ will put up 16 games of the same numbers as last year, but a bit premature to think he won't be right at the top.

The offensive line looked bad last night, with no Roaf, no Shields, no Welbourn, and no Waters. Assuming Roaf stays gone (and I think he is), the real concern to me would be the pass protection from the LT position. Just going by what I saw from Turley last night (a very, very small sample size), I think he still has the technique, but doesn't have 300 pounds behind it anymore. I think he'll be adequate/average in the run blocking game, and they still have Jason Dunn and Gonzo as solid run-blocking TE's. They lost Welbourn, but he was the weak link anyways, although still not a bad lineman. Between Black and Sampson, I doubt the drop off will be noticeable at RT.

Basically, while I think that the loss of Roaf will hurt the pass pro, I don't see it dropping this from one of the best run-block lines in the league to below average. I still think they'll be above average as a rush unit.

A quick word about Tony Richardson: On the list of things that contributed to LJ's success, I put T-Rich near the bottom. This guy is simply not Lorenzo Neal. T-Rich's value was as a pass blocker on passing downs, a rush option on draws and such, and as an outlet receiver. The KC TE's last year were far, far more valuable in the run game last year. This isn't to say that T-Rich isn't a good run blocker. I just saw LJ getting a LOT of yards last year from a one-back/two-TE set.

The loss of Al Saunders, and the switch from Vermiel to Edwards: I think the Chiefs will score less this year, Edwards IS definitely a conservative coach, but I'm not so sure that that is contrary to LJ getting his. Don't conservative coaches like to run the ball?

Regarding the coaching change affecting the O-line: This was not a Denver system, relying on the scheme to get the most out of lesser linemen. Waters, Shields, and Weigmann are all good linemen, and haven't forgotten how to block. Solari is still there, maintaing continuity. The interior of that line remains intact, it just wasn't intact last night.

The guys who's rankings are in danger to me, are Green, Kennison, and to a lesser extent, Gonzales. If Turley can't hold up at LT, Green will be doing nothing but 3 and 5 step drops. Which we saw a lot of last night (and which I wish the Raiders had done this preseason. But I digress). I think Gonzo will still get a ton of targets, but I wonder if Green will have enough pass pro to find Kennison, week in and week out.

Just some thoughts.

On the Richardson thing...you're right that LJ did far better in the single back set than the I (with Richardson blocking) on a yardage/YPC basis but he scored 3 td's from the single back as opposed to 13-14 in the I. Just something to consider when they get near the goal line and last year they'd run left behind Roaf/Ricardson which was money in the bank and now??

Well, I don't know the stats about what offense they ran near the goalline, but those numbers would suggest to me that their fullback was in the game when they were near the goalline, so it stands to reason they'd have more TD's from that formation.However, your point stands. We will have to see what happens with their short yardage game.

 

[(HULK)]

Take out his longest run of 11 yards

I hate it when people say this.Cleveland,

Why? Granted, if it was a 53 yard scoring run it would be different, but 11 yards is hardly going to win you a championship trophy. My point was valid. Without that 11 yards his performance has been less than awe-inspiring.

so what?! it is PRESEASON...lets not forget that they play Oakland twice, SF, Cincy, Az., St Lou... those should easily be 100-150 yard games, with or without Roaf.. lets not forget the Giants have one of the best d-lines and corps of LB's in the NFL, and they threw the kitchen sink at the Chiefs last night, in an effort to stop the run, because they got pushed around the week before in Baltimore..Maybe Lj's #'s aren't going to be what people think, but he's still going to be a top 5 RB...

I've got LJ ranked 4th. I believe he's a talented runner. But I'm not going into the draft with blinders on. There are a myraid of reasons as to why he won't put up the same points per game. For one, he likely can't sustain the workload he had the last 8 games over a whole season (That would be like 450 touches or more). Then, the coaching changes and the personel changes. This is a bunch of things working against him. He is still a good RB, and his situation is okay, whereas last year he was a good RB in a perfect situation. When all the dust settles at the end of season, I see him as the 4th best RB.

 

[JMJ]

Take out his longest run of 11 yards

I hate it when people say this.Cleveland,

Why? Granted, if it was a 53 yard scoring run it would be different, but 11 yards is hardly going to win you a championship trophy. My point was valid. Without that 11 yards his performance has been less than awe-inspiring.

so what?! it is PRESEASON...lets not forget that they play Oakland twice, SF, Cincy, Az., St Lou... those should easily be 100-150 yard games, with or without Roaf.. lets not forget the Giants have one of the best d-lines and corps of LB's in the NFL, and they threw the kitchen sink at the Chiefs last night, in an effort to stop the run, because they got pushed around the week before in Baltimore..Maybe Lj's #'s aren't going to be what people think, but he's still going to be a top 5 RB...

I've got LJ ranked 4th. I believe he's a talented runner. But I'm not going into the draft with blinders on. There are a myraid of reasons as to why he won't put up the same points per game. For one, he likely can't sustain the workload he had the last 8 games over a whole season (That would be like 450 touches or more). Then, the coaching changes and the personel changes. This is a bunch of things working against him. He is still a good RB, and his situation is okay, whereas last year he was a good RB in a perfect situation. When all the dust settles at the end of season, I see him as the 4th best RB.

I'm not as high on LJ as most and even before a single preseason game I already had him bumped down to #3. Who is the player you have ranked over him that most other don't assuming that your #1 and #2 is LT and SA?

 

[(HULK)]

I'm not as high on LJ as most and even before a single preseason game I already had him bumped down to #3. Who is the player you have ranked over him that most other don't assuming that your #1 and #2 is LT and SA?

Portis. Although I may move him down depending on how his injury shakes out.Okay, I just looked up the carries for LJ last season. Weeks 9 - 17 he had 261 carries and 27 receptions. Thats 288 touches in 9 games, or an average of 32 touches a game, or 512 touches for a whole season. I simply do not see how he will keep that pace up for 16 games. He will have to be less involved, on top of all the other changes we've discussed.

 

[weasel3515]

First off you being a (so called chiefs fan) lends you no more credit on the subject.Second this post is GAY. Third my draft is next week I have numro uno and will be picking LJ w/o looking back. Why you ask?Because im a shark posting in a guppie thread.

You're funeral. I'll check back when LJ barely rushes for more than a grand and you are at the bottom of your league.

Please do.

Thanks, I will. Let me ask you a question. Did you ever watch LJ perform against a good rush defense in college? The reason I ask is because it is analagous to how he will perform this year without Roaf, Richardson and probably Waters and/or Shields at some point. Average. If that is what you want at 1.01 then I wish I was in your league.

Let me ask YOU something. How is it "analagous" to compare how a professional runningback will perform without his best offensive lineman for the KC Chiefs... to how he ran against good defenses 4 years ago while he was in college playing for Penn State? I would dare to guess that Larry Johnson has improved on his skills as a runningback since his days in college. Not exactly seeing the correlation there.

It is analagous because the situation will be the same this year. And those were college defenses, not those of the NFL which are faster and stronger. Considering LJ has only been a starter for less than a year and pouted most of the rest of the time I seriously doubt his skills have greatly improved. He still runs high and gets stood up. Without huge holes opened up for him he will get stood up on the first hit and then gang tackled for short gains only. His best asset right now is as a receiver.

 

[weasel3515]

This was posted earlier in the summer re:stats when Roaf was out (note that Wellbourne was in, Richardson was in, Vermeil and Saunders were in).....If you dig a little deeper and look at who they ran against during Roaf's injuries...Oak (ranked 25th): Team combined for 36 attempts, 125 yards rushing and 2 TD's. --------------(3 yards under Oakland's average, .5 TD's above Oakland's average)Den (ranked 2): Team combined for 22 attempts, 74 yards and 0 TD's.--------------(11 yards under Denver's average, .635 TD's below Denver's average)Phi (ranked 21st): Team combined for 27 attempts, 144 yards and 1 TD.--------------(23.3 yards above Philly 's average, .25 TD above Philly's average)Oak (ranked 25th): Team combined for 24 attempts, 114 yards and 2 TD's.--------------(14 yards below Oakland's average, .5 TD's above Oakland's average)Buff (ranked 31st): Team combined for 32 rushes, 150 yards and 0 TD's.---------------(12.2 yards above Buffalo's average, 1.38 TD's below Buffalo's average)Hou (ranked 32nd): Team combined for 42 attempts, 226 yards and 2 TD's.---------------(82.1 yards above Houston's average, .69 TD's above Houston's avearge)Net diferential: +89.6 yards ( ~15 yards/game)---------------- -0.07 TD's (~ 0.01 TD's/game)So basically, without Roaf they were an average rushing team against the worst teams in the league.....Now replace Roaf with Turley and you see why I and some others are skeptical.ETA...I still think LJ is the #3 back but I think we can forget about the outrageous 2000+ yard 25 td predictions.

Excellent work. My point exactly.

 

[joffer]

Let me ask YOU something. How is it "analagous" to compare how a professional runningback will perform without his best offensive lineman for the KC Chiefs... to how he ran against good defenses 4 years ago while he was in college playing for Penn State? I would dare to guess that Larry Johnson has improved on his skills as a runningback since his days in college. Not exactly seeing the correlation there.

It is analagous because the situation will be the same this year. And those were college defenses, not those of the NFL which are faster and stronger. Considering LJ has only been a starter for less than a year and pouted most of the rest of the time I seriously doubt his skills have greatly improved. He still runs high and gets stood up. Without huge holes opened up for him he will get stood up on the first hit and then gang tackled for short gains only. His best asset right now is as a receiver.

this makes absolutely ZERO sensewhat does the fact that LJ got most of his college yards against lesser defenses have to do with anything? That's what RBs are supposed to do, that's what makes them bad defenses. Should we go compare what LT did against Sam Houston St. to what he did against A&M?

 

[Tong Po]

First off you being a (so called chiefs fan) lends you no more credit on the subject.Second this post is GAY. Third my draft is next week I have numro uno and will be picking LJ w/o looking back. Why you ask?Because im a shark posting in a guppie thread.

You're funeral. I'll check back when LJ barely rushes for more than a grand and you are at the bottom of your league.

Please do.

Thanks, I will. Let me ask you a question. Did you ever watch LJ perform against a good rush defense in college? The reason I ask is because it is analagous to how he will perform this year without Roaf, Richardson and probably Waters and/or Shields at some point. Average. If that is what you want at 1.01 then I wish I was in your league.

Let me ask YOU something. How is it "analagous" to compare how a professional runningback will perform without his best offensive lineman for the KC Chiefs... to how he ran against good defenses 4 years ago while he was in college playing for Penn State? I would dare to guess that Larry Johnson has improved on his skills as a runningback since his days in college. Not exactly seeing the correlation there.

It is analagous because the situation will be the same this year. And those were college defenses, not those of the NFL which are faster and stronger. Considering LJ has only been a starter for less than a year and pouted most of the rest of the time I seriously doubt his skills have greatly improved. He still runs high and gets stood up. Without huge holes opened up for him he will get stood up on the first hit and then gang tackled for short gains only. His best asset right now is as a receiver.

Right. And he averaged almost 40 yards a game receiving in the games he started last year. I suppose those numbers will deteriorate as well? All because of Willie Roaf? I would argue the opposite. With an O-line that might struggle with pass protection and Tony Richardson gone... I would think LJ's receiving numbers will improve simply from of an increase in screens and dump off passes.

 

[Wingnut]

I traded down from #1 overall to #3 because the guy I traded with wanted LJ....The good news is the Chiefs dont play their next preseason game until AFTER my draft. Otherwise I would be getting nervous about having to take LJ at #3.

 

[qimqam]

This was posted earlier in the summer re:stats when Roaf was out (note that Wellbourne was in, Richardson was in, Vermeil and Saunders were in).....If you dig a little deeper and look at who they ran against during Roaf's injuries...They ran all Oak (ranked 25th): Team combined for 36 attempts, 125 yards rushing and 2 TD's. --------------(3 yards under Oakland's average, .5 TD's above Oakland's average)Den (ranked 2): Team combined for 22 attempts, 74 yards and 0 TD's.--------------(11 yards under Denver's average, .635 TD's below Denver's average)Phi (ranked 21st): Team combined for 27 attempts, 144 yards and 1 TD.--------------(23.3 yards above Philly 's average, .25 TD above Philly's average)Oak (ranked 25th): Team combined for 24 attempts, 114 yards and 2 TD's.--------------(14 yards below Oakland's average, .5 TD's above Oakland's average)Buff (ranked 31st): Team combined for 32 rushes, 150 yards and 0 TD's.---------------(12.2 yards above Buffalo's average, 1.38 TD's below Buffalo's average)Hou (ranked 32nd): Team combined for 42 attempts, 226 yards and 2 TD's.---------------(82.1 yards above Houston's average, .69 TD's above Houston's avearge)Net diferential: +89.6 yards ( ~15 yards/game)---------------- -0.07 TD's (~ 0.01 TD's/game)So basically, without Roaf they were an average rushing team against the worst teams in the league.....Now replace Roaf with Turley and you see why I and some others are skeptical.ETA...I still think LJ is the #3 back but I think we can forget about the outrageous 2000+ yard 25 td predictions.

They ran all over Oak for 4 TDs in 2 games ...I'll take that every weekThey ran all over Hou for 226 yds and 2 TDs ...I'll take that every week LJ had 178 combined yards against Buffalo ...I'll take that every other week Against Philly - Yds 144 and TDs 1 were above Phi avg. Priest and LJ avg. 4.8yds per run ...I'll take that every other week.Denver Kicked their asses but ...it was against the #2 run defense and in Denver (this is the only week that supports your argument)If you take KC's totals out of these averages and compare what these 5 teams did vs. the rest of the league the differences will go up in KCs favor.

 

[KCC]

Do yourself a favor: Look at the numbers LJ put up in two-TE, one back formations when Roaf was out last year before deciding if you want to pass on LJ at #1. Granted, there are no stats of LJ's without Vermeil as H.C., but Edwards is the same guy who handed the rushing title to an aged Curtis Martin a couple years ago and with a line far inferior to what LJ has to work with this season.

Uhhhh .... you my friend are very uninformed.The Jets OLine won that rushing title for Curtis Martin. Curtis Martin won the rushing title in 2004 and did not have a SINGLE run of OVER 25 yards. Not a single one!!!!! How did he do it? The Jets OLine was blowing people off the ball and making holes that other RBs with more speed and elusiveness the Cumar could have broke HR runs for often. If Lamont Jordan started and got the lion's share of carries for the Jets that season he could have put up number similar to LJ last season.

Kevin Mawae is a perrenial pro bowler, Pete Kendall was LG and played at a pro bowl level all season long in 2004 and he is heavily respected around the league, Kareem McKenzie is a mamoth of a RT who in the past two years helped block for Curtis Martin to win a rushing title and for Tiki Barber to put up the type of season he put up last year (coincidence? I think not), Brandon Moore, like Kareem McKenzie is a mamoth of a RG who is the prototypical type of run-blocking guard who struggles in pass protection because of his brute size and strength, and 2004 is the lest good season the Jets got out of Jason Fabini's back.

The Jets OLine in 2004 was a top 3 offensive line in all the league and any other RB besides Curtis Martin could have challenged for 2,000 yards that season.

I'm a Jets' season ticket holder and Herm Edwards will run your team into the ground with his lacksidasical* training camp practices. Be ready to watch an out of shape and undisciplined football team this season. The Jets have been successful recentley in spite of Herman Edwards; not because of him. But hey, at least the players will love their new coach and how easy his practices are.

There is a reason why when the Jets traded their head coach ..... THEIR HEAD COACH .... the buying price was only a 4rth round draft pick.

Despite your claim that "Pete Kendall was LG and played at a pro bowl level all season", Kevin Mawae was the only one from the line that went to the pro bowl that year. Your glowing review of the Jets line ("mamoth" "well respected") is a little off. They were above average, but not up to KC's standards the past few years (which was the point I was trying to make.) FBGs ranked the Jet's O-line as "B-" material in 2004. I would rank the KC line as better than that even with Roaf gone.

 

[JMJ]

Do yourself a favor: Look at the numbers LJ put up in two-TE, one back formations when Roaf was out last year before deciding if you want to pass on LJ at #1. Granted, there are no stats of LJ's without Vermeil as H.C., but Edwards is the same guy who handed the rushing title to an aged Curtis Martin a couple years ago and with a line far inferior to what LJ has to work with this season.

Uhhhh .... you my friend are very uninformed.The Jets OLine won that rushing title for Curtis Martin. Curtis Martin won the rushing title in 2004 and did not have a SINGLE run of OVER 25 yards. Not a single one!!!!! How did he do it? The Jets OLine was blowing people off the ball and making holes that other RBs with more speed and elusiveness the Cumar could have broke HR runs for often. If Lamont Jordan started and got the lion's share of carries for the Jets that season he could have put up number similar to LJ last season.

Kevin Mawae is a perrenial pro bowler, Pete Kendall was LG and played at a pro bowl level all season long in 2004 and he is heavily respected around the league, Kareem McKenzie is a mamoth of a RT who in the past two years helped block for Curtis Martin to win a rushing title and for Tiki Barber to put up the type of season he put up last year (coincidence? I think not), Brandon Moore, like Kareem McKenzie is a mamoth of a RG who is the prototypical type of run-blocking guard who struggles in pass protection because of his brute size and strength, and 2004 is the lest good season the Jets got out of Jason Fabini's back.

The Jets OLine in 2004 was a top 3 offensive line in all the league and any other RB besides Curtis Martin could have challenged for 2,000 yards that season.

I'm a Jets' season ticket holder and Herm Edwards will run your team into the ground with his lacksidasical* training camp practices. Be ready to watch an out of shape and undisciplined football team this season. The Jets have been successful recentley in spite of Herman Edwards; not because of him. But hey, at least the players will love their new coach and how easy his practices are.

There is a reason why when the Jets traded their head coach ..... THEIR HEAD COACH .... the buying price was only a 4rth round draft pick.

Despite your claim that "Pete Kendall was LG and played at a pro bowl level all season", Kevin Mawae was the only one from the line that went to the pro bowl that year. Your glowing review of the Jets line ("mamoth" "well respected") is a little off. They were above average, but not up to KC's standards the past few years (which was the point I was trying to make.) FBGs ranked the Jet's O-line as "B-" material in 2004. I would rank the KC line as better than that even with Roaf gone.

That B- was a preseason rating.

 

[KCC]

Do yourself a favor: Look at the numbers LJ put up in two-TE, one back formations when Roaf was out last year before deciding if you want to pass on LJ at #1. Granted, there are no stats of LJ's without Vermeil as H.C., but Edwards is the same guy who handed the rushing title to an aged Curtis Martin a couple years ago and with a line far inferior to what LJ has to work with this season.

Uhhhh .... you my friend are very uninformed.The Jets OLine won that rushing title for Curtis Martin. Curtis Martin won the rushing title in 2004 and did not have a SINGLE run of OVER 25 yards. Not a single one!!!!! How did he do it? The Jets OLine was blowing people off the ball and making holes that other RBs with more speed and elusiveness the Cumar could have broke HR runs for often. If Lamont Jordan started and got the lion's share of carries for the Jets that season he could have put up number similar to LJ last season.

Kevin Mawae is a perrenial pro bowler, Pete Kendall was LG and played at a pro bowl level all season long in 2004 and he is heavily respected around the league, Kareem McKenzie is a mamoth of a RT who in the past two years helped block for Curtis Martin to win a rushing title and for Tiki Barber to put up the type of season he put up last year (coincidence? I think not), Brandon Moore, like Kareem McKenzie is a mamoth of a RG who is the prototypical type of run-blocking guard who struggles in pass protection because of his brute size and strength, and 2004 is the lest good season the Jets got out of Jason Fabini's back.

The Jets OLine in 2004 was a top 3 offensive line in all the league and any other RB besides Curtis Martin could have challenged for 2,000 yards that season.

I'm a Jets' season ticket holder and Herm Edwards will run your team into the ground with his lacksidasical* training camp practices. Be ready to watch an out of shape and undisciplined football team this season. The Jets have been successful recentley in spite of Herman Edwards; not because of him. But hey, at least the players will love their new coach and how easy his practices are.

There is a reason why when the Jets traded their head coach ..... THEIR HEAD COACH .... the buying price was only a 4rth round draft pick.

Despite your claim that "Pete Kendall was LG and played at a pro bowl level all season", Kevin Mawae was the only one from the line that went to the pro bowl that year. Your glowing review of the Jets line ("mamoth" "well respected") is a little off. They were above average, but not up to KC's standards the past few years (which was the point I was trying to make.) FBGs ranked the Jet's O-line as "B-" material in 2004. I would rank the KC line as better than that even with Roaf gone.

That B- was a preseason rating.

Yes, and that should be obvious to anyone clicking on the link. My point was that your assessment of the Jets being "mamoth", "well respected", and "playing at a pro-bowl level" (without, of course, actually being selected for the pro bowl) are platitudes that could be used for a lot of lineman in the NFL. Most people did not judge their talent level to be where your post suggested it was. Notice I'm not calling you "uninformed", I'm just providing you with some examples that contradict your statements.

 

[weasel3515]

The people who watch pre-season for getting a read on the starters are watching it for the wrong reason.In anycase wait till the 3rd pre-season game at least when they actually gameplan and script out the first drive and do a dress rehersal for week one.Even then it means nothing for the most part.But gupppies never learn, they just get eaten.

Guppy? Ha! In the two leagues I was in last year I won one (for the second time, 10 teams) and was runner-up in the other (12 teams). How did I do it? Because I read between the lines and saw Carson Palmer was on the rise (which is why I also grabbed Chad Johnson when others were grabbing RBs), saw the return of Steve Smith, recognized that Mike Anderson was the starter, realized Rackers would be the top kicker because his offense couldn't get in the end zone and he had one of the most accurate strong legs and that Indy's defense would be one of the top under Dungy. I'm not saying you are, but there are plenty of people out there who just believe everything they read in magazines...LJ must be 1.01, etc. Those people don't win leagues unless they are up against nothing but guppies.

 

[massraider]

Guppy-riffic!!

 

[Jayrod]

Sure LJ has questions, and I looked at them all seriously when I went into my draft 2 weeks ago with the number one pick. But the thing is, who doesn't?

LJ - no Roaf, no T-Rich, new coach (but a running back friendly one)

LT - new QB, not a great line, has been worked very hard the last few years and it showed at the end of last season.

SA - getting old, not in a contract year, no Hutchinson, not a good receiver

Portis- injured shoulder, not a good receiver, not in a very good offense

After looking at all of this (granted Portis wasn't injured yet, but I'm trying to help y'all out), I chose Johnson. He has the most upside and still is on a good team with a good line and playing for a run first coach and still is playing with a chip on his shoulder.

I don't expect obscene numbers this year, but he will be very solid and has the highest ceiling out of the elite backs.

 

[Gopher State]

Frankly, I think we should at least see what the 3rd preseason shows us before making any judgements on LJ (even then, I doubt I will change my mind on him but still.....)However, having said that, one thing that I did pick up from today was that the KC D looks to be as bad as before. Now, they must be plahying simple schemes etc, but the DL was getting blown off the ball many many times (on running and passing plays). What this tells me is that KC will need to pass quite a bit in 4th quarters, especially since they play in a division loaded with O talent. SOmething to keep in mind.....and keep thinking about. I am not saying this is any reason to change any rankings etc. But one of the reasons I loved LJ (other than the std reasons that everyone knows), was the fact that I believed KC improved it's D this off season (draft + Ty Law in FA). Now I know Tamba Hali is not yet on the field, but this is one more area to chew on regarding LJ.

very

 

[ceo3west]

There's a great freelance article on top 10 RB's. Only once in the last ten years have the top 3 backs from the previous year repeated as the top 3, and only twice two have repeated in the top 3. What does this mean? It's almost certain one of these guys (LT, SA, LJ) will not meet their projection and most likely two wont. My money is on LJ falling out of this group. Of the three, he has had the most detrimental offseason (in terms of team changes).

 

[Judge Smails]

This was posted earlier in the summer re:stats when Roaf was out (note that Wellbourne was in, Richardson was in, Vermeil and Saunders were in).....If you dig a little deeper and look at who they ran against during Roaf's injuries...Oak (ranked 25th): Team combined for 36 attempts, 125 yards rushing and 2 TD's. --------------(3 yards under Oakland's average, .5 TD's above Oakland's average)Den (ranked 2): Team combined for 22 attempts, 74 yards and 0 TD's.--------------(11 yards under Denver's average, .635 TD's below Denver's average)Phi (ranked 21st): Team combined for 27 attempts, 144 yards and 1 TD.--------------(23.3 yards above Philly 's average, .25 TD above Philly's average)Oak (ranked 25th): Team combined for 24 attempts, 114 yards and 2 TD's.--------------(14 yards below Oakland's average, .5 TD's above Oakland's average)Buff (ranked 31st): Team combined for 32 rushes, 150 yards and 0 TD's.---------------(12.2 yards above Buffalo's average, 1.38 TD's below Buffalo's average)Hou (ranked 32nd): Team combined for 42 attempts, 226 yards and 2 TD's.---------------(82.1 yards above Houston's average, .69 TD's above Houston's avearge)Net diferential: +89.6 yards ( ~15 yards/game)---------------- -0.07 TD's (~ 0.01 TD's/game)So basically, without Roaf they were an average rushing team against the worst teams in the league.....Now replace Roaf with Turley and you see why I and some others are skeptical.ETA...I still think LJ is the #3 back but I think we can forget about the outrageous 2000+ yard 25 td predictions.

Excellent work. My point exactly.

Damn that Priest, skewing KC's overall run stats with horrid play ....

 

[Judge Smails]

I see the bashing of the Rush D's that LJ went against last year. Anybody look at who they get to face THIS year? Does any game other than the road game at Pitt scare anybody?

C'mon..

Cincy

Denver

SF

AZ

Pitt

SD

Seattle

St. Louis

Miami

Oakland

Denver

Cle

Week 14 Baltimore (home)

Week 15 SD

Week 16 SB Oakland

I don't care what the rankings say (many articles stating they are not reliable, as winning teams like Seattle last year had teams playing catchup all year, etc.) - that is a freakin' cake schedule vs. the run. He's beaten up on all of the AFC West teams (SD/Oak/Den) and gets 6 games against them. Cincy? SF? AZ? STL? Seattle? Miami? He will have MONSTER games folks - but please feel free to overanalyze this...

 

[Todem]

The people who watch pre-season for getting a read on the starters are watching it for the wrong reason.In anycase wait till the 3rd pre-season game at least when they actually gameplan and script out the first drive and do a dress rehersal for week one.Even then it means nothing for the most part.But gupppies never learn, they just get eaten.

Guppy? Ha! In the two leagues I was in last year I won one (for the second time, 10 teams) and was runner-up in the other (12 teams). How did I do it? Because I read between the lines and saw Carson Palmer was on the rise (which is why I also grabbed Chad Johnson when others were grabbing RBs), saw the return of Steve Smith, recognized that Mike Anderson was the starter, realized Rackers would be the top kicker because his offense couldn't get in the end zone and he had one of the most accurate strong legs and that Indy's defense would be one of the top under Dungy. I'm not saying you are, but there are plenty of people out there who just believe everything they read in magazines...LJ must be 1.01, etc. Those people don't win leagues unless they are up against nothing but guppies.

I watch pre-season to find players no one is watching. Like Willie Parker last season. I was drafting him...not picking him up off the waiver wire.I don't need to watch LJ, I know what he can do. I don't need to watch Tiki..I know what he can do etc etc.Point is Steve Smith showed he was on the rise the year before he broke his leg. Most good FF owners saw that coming as well.If people are dropping LJ down and thinking he will be a huge dissapointment because of 18 pre-season carries they are lost. Pre-season judgement on guy's who are locks for their jobs is for losers.Oh Mike Anderson last year? He was running first team all of mini camp and training camp...had nothing to do with the pre-season. That was his job from the get-go.

 

[Todem]

The people who watch pre-season for getting a read on the starters are watching it for the wrong reason.

In anycase wait till the 3rd pre-season game at least when they actually gameplan and script out the first drive and do a dress rehersal for week one.

Even then it means nothing for the most part.

But gupppies never learn, they just get eaten.

Guppy? Ha! In the two leagues I was in last year I won one (for the second time, 10 teams) and was runner-up in the other (12 teams). How did I do it? Because I read between the lines and saw Carson Palmer was on the rise (which is why I also grabbed Chad Johnson when others were grabbing RBs), saw the return of Steve Smith, recognized that Mike Anderson was the starter, realized Rackers would be the top kicker because his offense couldn't get in the end zone and he had one of the most accurate strong legs and that Indy's defense would be one of the top under Dungy. I'm not saying you are, but there are plenty of people out there who just believe everything they read in magazines...LJ must be 1.01, etc. Those people don't win leagues unless they are up against nothing but guppies.

Understood.

 

[Sheriff66]

The panic button should have been pushed several weeks ago after all of this information was realized:

Lost head coach, most seccussfull FF RB HC in recent history

Lost OC, most successfull FF RB OC in recent history

Lost great blocking FB

Hired Edwards as new HC

Lost 2nd best Olineman in the NFL at LT

If you're hitting the panic button now... I'm afraid it's likely too late.

I agree. I dont think he'll completely bust but he certainly wont live up to the draft position IMO. I was just in a draft where a guy took James at #3 and passed on LJ, but I seemed to be the only one who thought this wasn't preposterous. Not saying I'd take James there, but I would certainly be hesitant to pull the trigger on LJ at this point. I like safe bets in the first round, and LJ just doesn't seem safe to me. This has nothing to do with the preseason - losing Roaf and Richardson will be huge.

.I need yours and that other dudes e-mail addresses to send out league invites...

TIA

 

[Routilla]

I see the bashing of the Rush D's that LJ went against last year. Anybody look at who they get to face THIS year? Does any game other than the road game at Pitt scare anybody?

C'mon..

Cincy

Denver

SF

AZ

Pitt

SD

Seattle

St. Louis

Miami

Oakland

Denver

Cle

Week 14 Baltimore (home)

Week 15 SD

Week 16 SB Oakland

I don't care what the rankings say (many articles stating they are not reliable, as winning teams like Seattle last year had teams playing catchup all year, etc.) - that is a freakin' cake schedule vs. the run. He's beaten up on all of the AFC West teams (SD/Oak/Den) and gets 6 games against them. Cincy? SF? AZ? STL? Seattle? Miami? He will have MONSTER games folks - but please feel free to overanalyze this...

Well atleast someone is paying attention. Nice work!

 

[Angry Beavers]

very happy to get lj @ #3 in one of my leagues this year!

 

[Snotbubbles]

Carry 1-5: 80-498-6.2-4

Carry 6-10: 69-337-4.9-3

Carry 11-15: 53-246-4.6-6

Carry 16-20: 50-342-6.8-5

Carry 21-25: 45-183-4.1-1

Carry 26-30: 29-92-3.2-1

Carr 31+: 10-52-5.2-0

 

[qimqam]

Carry 1-5: 80-498-6.2-4 Carry 6-10: 69-337-4.9-3 Carry 11-15: 53-246-4.6-6 Carry 16-20: 50-342-6.8-5 Carry 21-25: 45-183-4.1-1 Carry 26-30: 29-92-3.2-1 Carr 31+: 10-52-5.2-0

Don't know what you ar pointing out here but if this is LJs breakdown it looks like he is most productive carries 11-20.

 

[Snotbubbles]

I can tell you a lot of games last year where LJ was slow out of the gate.. I would have to dig around but I am willing to bet his worst quarter was the 1st. He hasn't had a chance to get into a groove.. Why do you people panic so much?? I see it more this eyar then last..

Giving stats to this guy.

 

[losgalacticos]

Let me ask YOU something. How is it "analagous" to compare how a professional runningback will perform without his best offensive lineman for the KC Chiefs... to how he ran against good defenses 4 years ago while he was in college playing for Penn State? I would dare to guess that Larry Johnson has improved on his skills as a runningback since his days in college. Not exactly seeing the correlation there.

It is analagous because the situation will be the same this year. And those were college defenses, not those of the NFL which are faster and stronger. Considering LJ has only been a starter for less than a year and pouted most of the rest of the time I seriously doubt his skills have greatly improved. He still runs high and gets stood up. Without huge holes opened up for him he will get stood up on the first hit and then gang tackled for short gains only. His best asset right now is as a receiver.

this makes absolutely ZERO sensewhat does the fact that LJ got most of his college yards against lesser defenses have to do with anything? That's what RBs are supposed to do, that's what makes them bad defenses. Should we go compare what LT did against Sam Houston St. to what he did against A&M?

Just for the record, that season LJ had was a historically great season, where he averaged 7 or 8 yards per carry. Going by memory (because I had a high pick that season, so I studied it), his 3 worst games (against those tough Big 10 ds) he still averaged 4 yards per carry. PennState abandoned the run in those games. Any sick season will have games like this that nayysayers will point to. Bush had a few too.That being said, his last two seasons are a far better predictor of this season that the fall of 2002.