Apple (AAPL) : Tim Cook announces iForum. Dodds and Bryant prepare shut down operations (1 Viewer)

[hxperson]

Buy Samsung. Corner the smartphone market in one move, and there are enough also-rans to protect against anti-trust. Also get Q1's best selling PC in the bargain.

I'm not sure if this is sarcasm or not, but I'm far more bearish on Samsung's stock than Apple's. I think the Smartphone trade is pretty much over now and most people are still overestimating the impact of growth in emerging markets and underestimating the impact of new platforms from Microsoft and Blackberry on profitability.

Samsung's surge has largely been due to smartphone sales over the past year, so I wouldn't touch that stock. Apple at least has a massive cash stock pile, a strong ecosystem, a cult-like following, and a history of innovation, all of which could combine to bring about strong growth away from smartphones. Plus they are trading at a lower multiple and the cash could potentially be used to shake out any large shorts.

 

[culdeus]

Buy Samsung. Corner the smartphone market in one move, and there are enough also-rans to protect against anti-trust. Also get Q1's best selling PC in the bargain.

I'm not sure if this is sarcasm or not, but I'm far more bearish on Samsung's stock than Apple's. I think the Smartphone trade is pretty much over now and most people are still overestimating the impact of growth in emerging markets and underestimating the impact of new platforms from Microsoft and Blackberry on profitability.

Samsung's surge has largely been due to smartphone sales over the past year, so I wouldn't touch that stock. Apple at least has a massive cash stock pile, a strong ecosystem, a cult-like following, and a history of innovation, all of which could combine to bring about strong growth away from smartphones. Plus they are trading at a lower multiple and the cash could potentially be used to shake out any large shorts.

Short interest hasn't risen much, but the time to close the transactions has. When it touched 400 there were some serious gaps.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Buy Samsung. Corner the smartphone market in one move, and there are enough also-rans to protect against anti-trust. Also get Q1's best selling PC in the bargain.

I'm not sure if this is sarcasm or not, but I'm far more bearish on Samsung's stock than Apple's. I think the Smartphone trade is pretty much over now and most people are still overestimating the impact of growth in emerging markets and underestimating the impact of new platforms from Microsoft and Blackberry on profitability.

Samsung's surge has largely been due to smartphone sales over the past year, so I wouldn't touch that stock. Apple at least has a massive cash stock pile, a strong ecosystem, a cult-like following, and a history of innovation, all of which could combine to bring about strong growth away from smartphones. Plus they are trading at a lower multiple and the cash could potentially be used to shake out any large shorts.

Short interest hasn't risen much, but the time to close the transactions has. When it touched 400 there were some serious gaps.

What does this mean?

 

[hxperson]

Wasn't saying the SI was high, just that their cash balance makes it a dangerous short.

 

[optionmaven]

Buy Samsung. Corner the smartphone market in one move, and there are enough also-rans to protect against anti-trust. Also get Q1's best selling PC in the bargain.

I'm not sure if this is sarcasm or not, but I'm far more bearish on Samsung's stock than Apple's. I think the Smartphone trade is pretty much over now and most people are still overestimating the impact of growth in emerging markets and underestimating the impact of new platforms from Microsoft and Blackberry on profitability.

Samsung's surge has largely been due to smartphone sales over the past year, so I wouldn't touch that stock. Apple at least has a massive cash stock pile, a strong ecosystem, a cult-like following, and a history of innovation, all of which could combine to bring about strong growth away from smartphones. Plus they are trading at a lower multiple and the cash could potentially be used to shake out any large shorts.

Short interest hasn't risen much, but the time to close the transactions has. When it touched 400 there were some serious gaps.

What does this mean?

Technical levels of support on the bear/bull side. usually bear. (simplest terms)

 

[tommyGunZ]

Buy Samsung. Corner the smartphone market in one move, and there are enough also-rans to protect against anti-trust. Also get Q1's best selling PC in the bargain.

I'm not sure if this is sarcasm or not, but I'm far more bearish on Samsung's stock than Apple's. I think the Smartphone trade is pretty much over now and most people are still overestimating the impact of growth in emerging markets and underestimating the impact of new platforms from Microsoft and Blackberry on profitability.

Samsung's surge has largely been due to smartphone sales over the past year, so I wouldn't touch that stock. Apple at least has a massive cash stock pile, a strong ecosystem, a cult-like following, and a history of innovation, all of which could combine to bring about strong growth away from smartphones. Plus they are trading at a lower multiple and the cash could potentially be used to shake out any large shorts.

Short interest hasn't risen much, but the time to close the transactions has. When it touched 400 there were some serious gaps.

What does this mean?

Technical levels of support on the bear/bull side. usually bear. (simplest terms)

I figured something like that. Siffion has been bearish (and accurately so) for awhile due to tech analysis. I'm hoping the picture changes soon.

 

[culdeus]

Buy Samsung. Corner the smartphone market in one move, and there are enough also-rans to protect against anti-trust. Also get Q1's best selling PC in the bargain.

I'm not sure if this is sarcasm or not, but I'm far more bearish on Samsung's stock than Apple's. I think the Smartphone trade is pretty much over now and most people are still overestimating the impact of growth in emerging markets and underestimating the impact of new platforms from Microsoft and Blackberry on profitability.

Samsung's surge has largely been due to smartphone sales over the past year, so I wouldn't touch that stock. Apple at least has a massive cash stock pile, a strong ecosystem, a cult-like following, and a history of innovation, all of which could combine to bring about strong growth away from smartphones. Plus they are trading at a lower multiple and the cash could potentially be used to shake out any large shorts.

Short interest hasn't risen much, but the time to close the transactions has. When it touched 400 there were some serious gaps.

What does this mean?

When it hit 400 there were alot of people short the stock that tried to close out their position all at once. Many of those orders didn't get filled right away. When this happens all hell can break loose, but it didn't.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Buy Samsung. Corner the smartphone market in one move, and there are enough also-rans to protect against anti-trust. Also get Q1's best selling PC in the bargain.

I'm not sure if this is sarcasm or not, but I'm far more bearish on Samsung's stock than Apple's. I think the Smartphone trade is pretty much over now and most people are still overestimating the impact of growth in emerging markets and underestimating the impact of new platforms from Microsoft and Blackberry on profitability.

Samsung's surge has largely been due to smartphone sales over the past year, so I wouldn't touch that stock. Apple at least has a massive cash stock pile, a strong ecosystem, a cult-like following, and a history of innovation, all of which could combine to bring about strong growth away from smartphones. Plus they are trading at a lower multiple and the cash could potentially be used to shake out any large shorts.

Short interest hasn't risen much, but the time to close the transactions has. When it touched 400 there were some serious gaps.

What does this mean?

When it hit 400 there were alot of people short the stock that tried to close out their position all at once. Many of those orders didn't get filled right away. When this happens all hell can break loose, but it didn't.

Thank you. Makes sense.

 

[cstu]

Only half of iPhone sales are for the newest iPhone 5.

Is this a sign of trouble to come for Apple? What is tells me is that the last few iPhone models are all very good and there's little incentive to upgrade to the latest, most expensive one. I can see this problem getting worse as each new iPhone is released with less and less significant improvement. They will still sell a lot of phones, but margins are going to take a hit.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Only half of iPhone sales are for the newest iPhone 5.

Is this a sign of trouble to come for Apple? What is tells me is that the last few iPhone models are all very good and there's little incentive to upgrade to the latest, most expensive one. I can see this problem getting worse as each new iPhone is released with less and less significant improvement. They will still sell a lot of phones, but margins are going to take a hit.

This is the trouble to come for Apple.

Though I still believe it still boils down to the innovation factor more than anything. People need to see Tim Cook lead in a manner that suggests to them that the death of Jobs wasn't the death of Apple innovation.

 

[The Commish]

Only half of iPhone sales are for the newest iPhone 5.

Is this a sign of trouble to come for Apple? What is tells me is that the last few iPhone models are all very good and there's little incentive to upgrade to the latest, most expensive one. I can see this problem getting worse as each new iPhone is released with less and less significant improvement. They will still sell a lot of phones, but margins are going to take a hit.

Can't get much less significant than the last two though. That's been a verbalized complaint since the iPhone4, but dismissed as "hate talk"

 

[culdeus]

Got a handful of price target cuts today but stock is drifting up. Will be a wild after hours ride.

 

[The General]

Apple experts out there - how much does the stock drop after hours when they announce earnings? 10%?

 

[culdeus]

Apple experts out there - how much does the stock drop after hours when they announce earnings? 10%?

It might rise depending on 3q/4q guidance staying put. Any bad guidance out in the future or delays of a refresh in the phone could flush it. Flat guidance might actually see it pop big up.

 

[The General]

Apple experts out there - how much does the stock drop after hours when they announce earnings? 10%?

It might rise depending on 3q/4q guidance staying put. Any bad guidance out in the future or delays of a refresh in the phone could flush it. Flat guidance might actually see it pop big up.

I'm fully prepared for slow rise today maybe get up to about 410 then the floor drop out after hours.

 

[DiStefano]

Apple experts out there - how much does the stock drop after hours when they announce earnings? 10%?

It might rise depending on 3q/4q guidance staying put. Any bad guidance out in the future or delays of a refresh in the phone could flush it. Flat guidance might actually see it pop big up.

I'm fully prepared for slow rise today maybe get up to about 410 then the floor drop out after hours.

Depends. If they were to announce a 50% increase in dividends, that would make the stock yield 4%, and might lead to a huge bump upward.

 

[tommyGunZ]

getting close. My palms are sweaty.

 

[moderated]

Seems low expectations and bad news are expected and that usually means the downside is capped unless they completely bomb.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Seems low expectations and bad news are expected and that usually means the downside is capped unless they completely bomb.

I hope so. Stock is down ~ $60 over the last month, even with the ~ $17 run up the past 2 days.

Knees weak arm spaghetti.......

 

[The Z Machine]

Seems low expectations and bad news are expected and that usually means the downside is capped unless they completely bomb.

I hope so. Stock is down ~ $60 over the last month, even with the ~ $17 run up the past 2 days. Knees weak arm spaghetti.......

Jesus, how much do you have invested in apple?

 

[culdeus]

If I had some spare cash around I'd be buying 400 puts until I maxed out my margin. Then again I'm really bad at this and more of an observer of technical swings.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Seems low expectations and bad news are expected and that usually means the downside is capped unless they completely bomb.

I hope so. Stock is down ~ $60 over the last month, even with the ~ $17 run up the past 2 days. Knees weak arm spaghetti.......

Jesus, how much do you have invested in apple?

Small potatoes compared you ballers......but most of what I've accumulated.

 

[The Z Machine]

Yikes. GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

 

[moderated]

good numbers. many were predicting a big miss.

 

[tommyGunZ]

increased Dividend, and $50B in buyback announced, along with beating the street? wow

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Weak guidance.

 

[moderated]

increased Dividend, and $50B in buyback announced, along with beating the street? wow

would think this is looked at positively, but guess we'll find out in a couple minutes.

 

[The Commish]

GL all....I figured there was a good 6 months left before the chaos began.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Hey!! Gunz gets to stay married for another quarter.

 

[hxperson]

Pretty cool that they are starting to use leverage now. Looking forward to trading some Apple....I bet they trade inside of treasuries.

 

[moderated]

If I had some spare cash around I'd be buying 400 puts until I maxed out my margin. Then again I'm really bad at this and more of an observer of technical swings.

good you didn't have spare cash laying around.

 

[hxperson]

Pretty cool that they are starting to use leverage now. Looking forward to trading some Apple....I bet they trade inside of treasuries.

Brokers are already quoting CDS on aapl...sweet

 

[tommyGunZ]

Hey!! Gunz gets to stay married for another quarter.

WHEW!

 

[culdeus]

If I had some spare cash around I'd be buying 400 puts until I maxed out my margin. Then again I'm really bad at this and more of an observer of technical swings.

good you didn't have spare cash laying around.

Like I said, I'm bad at this and don't do short term trades at all. It's a curiosity of mine for sure though.

 

[DiStefano]

Yielding around 3% dividend now. And the $60 billion buyback should boost earnings per share by about 12%, ongoing.

 

[cstu]

Yielding around 3% dividend now. And the $60 billion buyback should boost earnings per share by about 12%, ongoing.

Good news but margins are down to 22% from 31% last year. I think they get squeezed even more over the next year.

 

[culdeus]

Yielding around 3% dividend now. And the $60 billion buyback should boost earnings per share by about 12%, ongoing.

Buyback is not immediate. Will phase over next 8 quarters.

This dog is going red, now.

 

[culdeus]

If I had some spare cash around I'd be buying 400 puts until I maxed out my margin. Then again I'm really bad at this and more of an observer of technical swings.

good you didn't have spare cash laying around.

Like I said, I'm bad at this and don't do short term trades at all. It's a curiosity of mine for sure though.

 

[moderated]

If I had some spare cash around I'd be buying 400 puts until I maxed out my margin. Then again I'm really bad at this and more of an observer of technical swings.

good you didn't have spare cash laying around.

Like I said, I'm bad at this and don't do short term trades at all. It's a curiosity of mine for sure though.

you still would have lost based on the put premium.

 

[hxperson]

If I had some spare cash around I'd be buying 400 puts until I maxed out my margin. Then again I'm really bad at this and more of an observer of technical swings.

good you didn't have spare cash laying around.

Like I said, I'm bad at this and don't do short term trades at all. It's a curiosity of mine for sure though.

you still would have lost based on the put premium.

As long as the px is below where it was when he bought the puts and they weren't O/N puts he would be able to sell the puts tmr for a profit.

 

[tommyGunZ]

AAPL + .06 in after hours trading.

:CONFETTI:

 

[culdeus]

Cook saying a bigger phone is not coming could obliterate the stock tomorrow. Need to get rid of this guy, huge, quickly.

 

[moderated]

If I had some spare cash around I'd be buying 400 puts until I maxed out my margin. Then again I'm really bad at this and more of an observer of technical swings.

good you didn't have spare cash laying around.

Like I said, I'm bad at this and don't do short term trades at all. It's a curiosity of mine for sure though.

you still would have lost based on the put premium.

As long as the px is below where it was when he bought the puts and they weren't O/N puts he would be able to sell the puts tmr for a profit.

there is a lot of earnings premium in the options pre-earnings. Even if the stock stays even or drops 1-2% the 400 puts will be worth quite a bit less then they were before today.

 

[Das Boot]

Cook saying a bigger phone is not coming could obliterate the stock tomorrow. Need to get rid of this guy, huge, quickly.

People don't want a large smart phone.

 

[Fennis]

Cook saying a bigger phone is not coming could obliterate the stock tomorrow. Need to get rid of this guy, huge, quickly.

I recall an article I read years ago about tech founder/visionaries and how difficult it is for tech companies to succeed without them. People like Michael Dell, Steve Jobs (the article spoke about him after the first time he left) Jerry Yang (although not successful the second time) are impossible to replace. The company loses its directional leader and investors quickly lose confidence. There are many, many more examples.

 

[Mario Kart]

Cook saying a bigger phone is not coming could obliterate the stock tomorrow. Need to get rid of this guy, huge, quickly.

Not sure who this guy is talking to or what kind of R&D Apple is doing but the size of the current iPhone 5 sucks. If they would make a 4.8" or 5" screen or whatever the Galaxy is at right now, people would jump on board. This news will surely make people jump off... me included soon.

That said, a bigger phone will allow more machinery inside. A better phone, more memory, overall a better product. Not sure what these guys are thinking.

 

[culdeus]

Cook saying a bigger phone is not coming could obliterate the stock tomorrow. Need to get rid of this guy, huge, quickly.

Not sure who this guy is talking to or what kind of R&D Apple is doing but the size of the current iPhone 5 sucks. If they would make a 4.8" or 5" screen or whatever the Galaxy is at right now, people would jump on board. This news will surely make people jump off... me included soon.

That said, a bigger phone will allow more machinery inside. A better phone, more memory, overall a better product. Not sure what these guys are thinking.

Bigger phone doesn't = more stuff. what it does = is more battery size. Galaxy Notes have sick battery and they are what? 2x an iphone?

 

[Cliff Clavin]

Cook saying a bigger phone is not coming could obliterate the stock tomorrow. Need to get rid of this guy, huge, quickly.

Kind of goes against their entire strategy of take a product, change the size, add a useless gimmick, rinse, repeat.

 

[dickey moe]

http://www.businessinsider.com/apple-is-a-slow-growing-tech-company-2013-4

 

[cstu]

Cook saying a bigger phone is not coming could obliterate the stock tomorrow. Need to get rid of this guy, huge, quickly.

People don't want a large smart phone.

They don't want it until Apple tells them they do.