Application for Message Board team (1 Viewer)

[Davej626]

I will make my application simple. If you choose me, we will win. I don't need four pages to tell you that. End of story.

 

[Redhots GM]

Someone once said “To acquire knowledge, one must study; to acquire wisdom, one must observe.” That is what I would bring to the table, wisdom. The first year I played this game, back when I used to visit cheatsheets.net, I thought I knew it all. My team landed in the cellar. The next year, I took the championship. I have been in the hunt for the championship trophy in every year since*, winning that coveted piece of plastic over 50% of the time. *(Uh… with the exception of last year, which was disastrous. But, I will get into that later.) These leagues consisted of mainly redraft which means that my strategies for them would not work well in this survivor format. I have done a few survivor leagues with some element of success. Although no trophies were awarded to my squads they were still around after week 8 which put them in the upper 25% of the class. I believe that a survivor strategy must consist of choosing players with limited injury risk, players on high scoring teams, setting limits on positions and, most important, be flexible during the draft. Being flexible also requires that you are thoroughly prepared. Not only from the standpoint of your own draft but also that of your opponents. Speaking of opponents, I, as many here, have played against many FBG staffers and beaten them to a pulp on several occasions, although they probably will not admit it. I have developed quite a few excel spreadsheets to help me prepare for the draft and dominate my leagues with their use throughout the season. As with many of these programs (and most projections) they seem to work only half of the time. Which probably explains my winning the championship only 50% of the time. I think that the way I would approach this style of league would be to first prepare my draft cheat sheet selecting my most choice players. Then I would study my opponents and what I felt their strategy and choices would be. After doing several mock drafts with a few MB friends, I feel I would be fully prepared to compete with a very top-notch squad.Finally… after having such a terrible year last year there is no way I can lose, or at least end up in the top 25%.BTW my writing skills are terrible, that’s why I type everything.

 

[bts4bkfst]

I've been around since the beginning. I used to post much more than I do now because frankly, this site is just too damn popular. It seems like every player in every league I'm in frequents this site and to lay out my strategies and plans for the year are counter-prductive to me. I'm in this thing to win money!!

Not that it matters in a survival style format but I've won my fair share of leagues from re-draft to keeper to dynasty. I've been in many different kinds of scoring leagues and in quite a few IDP leagues as well. Salary caps, contract years, yada, yada...

I played 1 year in the NO MERCY leagues (the 1st year) and won my division. I unexpectedly lost computer access over the next summer (comp died) and was dropped from the league.

Last year was my first in the Survivor format. I played over at Redeye sports. I won that league pretty handily. Here are some links. I had the first pick inthe draft.

I'm the team choosing first.

Steve

I could certainly come up with more writing if it were needed for this site but that was appropriate for that site. As defending champion, i'll be in that league again this year.

As for my drafting strategy, I do all my own projections but DO NOT use any of the tools here. Technically, I'm not a true VBD guy cuz I don't use the program but go by what I feel is best for me. I chart where each player has been selected and draft accordingly. I make reaches but only small ones.

Thank you and good luck.

 

[LHUCKS]

Hi Unlucky,

I’ll try to be brief.

Survivor-Specific Qualifications

Footballguy Survivor II – I was selected by Mr. Dodds and company to compete against 11 of the messageboard’s most respected ff’ers. I finished 3rd in my inaugural year in what was the most competitive fantasy draft I have ever come across in my 14 years of fantasy football. My 3rd place showing surpassed three Footballguys Staff Members, one of which our team will be competing against: Marc Levin, Aaron Rudnicki, and Will Grant.

Messageboard Survivor League – I have participated in the league over the last couple of years which is organized by Twilight. In 2003 I finished #3 in scoring of 48 teams despite having the #15 pick in a sixteen team draft.

Draft Theories/Rankings Preparation

Theory - From my professional experience as a business management consultant I have adopted a risk management approach to fantasy football. I am currently penning a 60 page white paper titled “The Risk Management Approach to Fantasy Football: How to Win at Fantasy Football.” The basic philosophy is don’t take risks in the early rounds, but do take increasing risks as the draft moves on. I expect it to change the face of fantasy football. In additon to this approach I also apply basic VBD principles…but I do not rely on the draft dominator as I believe it has inherent flaws.

Rankings – I’m very detail oriented when compiling my rankings(which are now complete.) I use a qualitative and quantitative approach to determine them. I take into account over 20 factors for every player. My opinion is that they are second to none.

Survivor Strategy – I do not want to give away my secrets here, because based on the commentary from the Footballguys Staff in Survivor I and Survivor II, many individuals we will be competing against are unaware of what I believe to be the best strategies for this format. Some in this thread have eluded to a few of the obvious strategies, but I believe there are a handful more that are vital to ensuring success. Please let me know if you’d like me to be more specific with regards to this topic. I take ff competition very seriously. If chosen I would be willing to help coach the team on survivor strategy if asked to do so.

Survivor Format Trends – I know when and where position runs will begin and end and how to take advantage of them. I know how much depth to take at each position and when to draft that depth.

Background

Major: Molecular and Cellular Biology

Minors: Chemistry, Mathematics, Physics

Graduate School: 2nd Year Law Student

Writing: Simply put I believe I’m a good writer. My style is somewhat dry, and my humor is dark. Please see my Survivor II commentary or one of my thread topics for examples. If you would like more specific writing samples I would be happy to email them to you.

Professional Experience: Business Management Consultant for 5 years with a “Big 5 Firm”, eventually specializing in Electricity Trading Risk Management.

Additionally, I played football for 11 years in my youth and played cornerback in high school.

Fantasy Football is my life and I’m not ashamed to admit that.

Thanks for your consideration,

LHUCKS

P.S. Special thanks to the handful of individuals that nominated me in Dodds' original announcement thread. It is gratifying to know that my contributions are well-received. I'm equally appreciative.

 

[jurb26]

I too would like a chance at this. Not going to put up a bunch of credentials as I don't see them all that relavent. No one knows nor cares about the leagues I play in away from here anyways. I would much rather get in a prove my worth rather than talk about it before hand to be honest. My draft strat. would be simply to get the BPA and maximize value. Basically if you have seen my posts and like the info I have given and think I maybe an asset, then give me a shot. If not, I will be able to find plenty of other leagues to play in. This however would be a great challenge and would look forward to it very much. It sure will be fun having to go through all of these.

 

[footballman_696969]

Hey Unlucky,

You should choose me because of my experience and success in drafting with the survivor format. I may not be one of the most popular members of the message board, but I am qualified for the job. I've been playing fantasy football for six years now and I play to win. I read almost every post on this board and make my own projections. I will not let you down if you do decide to chose me.

Survivor Leagues

This will be my third year playing in leagues with the survivor format. I started out playing in 16 team leagues with some competitive sharks. I was booted out within the first six people in MBSL 1 in 2002 and 2003, but I won MBSL 2 in both 2002 and 2003. I was also 5th in scoring in MBSL 1 in 2003. I really enjoy playing in this format and have alot of experience with it. I have found some strategies that work very well and think I can be really competitive if I am picked.

Draft Strategies/Theories

My strategy for survivor leagues consist of having a alot of depth, always paying attention to bye weeks, drafting according to the scoring system, and not being afraid to take some risks. Depth in survivor leagues is a very important concept. If one of your starters goes down due to injury, you need to have a back up that can start week in and week out. There is no waver wire or trades to rely on. You must pay attention to bye weeks when drafting players. If your two starting running backs are on bye in week five than you have are most likely going to get booted in week five. It is as simple as that. If your scoring system has one point/reception, you can not ignore that. Even drafting someone like Richie Anderson in a late round could help you in a week that your running back does poorly. If you have a gut feeling about a player, do not be afraid to take him in the later rounds. He could be very valuable even if he only plays a few good games. In this system you don't pick your starters.

I believe in always giving 110%. If you pick me I will use my experience and knowledge to do my best. Good luck and thanks for hearing me out.

FM69

Edit: Chris Smith (FBG Staff) can vouch for me. I've been playing in an auction league with him for two years now. I've had a better record than him both years.

 

[Warehouse Nasty]

Been playing fantasy for 4 years now; been playing well for the last 2. I consider this site to be a significant contributor to my success last year. I joined 2 leagues last year (my first multi-league year) and won them both-1 online and 1 local. Anyways, I'm not sure what I can say to distinguish myself from anyone else on here except for the fact that I promise not to pick David Boston!

 

[grouse]

I would love to get an opportunity to back-up my bold calls made in this forum and put my 18 years of fantasy football experience on the line against FBG's best and brightest minds.

I still remember like it was yesterday, my chubby 14-year old legs chugging through the shopping mall with the anticipation and excitement of a schoolgirl to get to B. Dalton Booksellers to buy my first copy of Cliff Charpentier's Fantasy Football Digest. That book became the road map and impetus for a lifelong addiction. I took that book with me everywhere I went, knew it backwards and forwards, and it was the first item I packed in my duffel bag as I headed off to summer camp that year. And, it was at camp in the summer of 1986 that I gathered 9 of my closest childhood jocks and friends, huddled on a bunk bed drinking warm Cokes and eating cold cans of Alpha Getti that I commissionered my first fantasy football draft and league. My first fantasy football draft pick was Tony Dorsett. Coming off a 1300-yard season and a track record as good as they come, how could I go wrong? As quickly as I became addicted to fantasy football did my first painful lesson get learned. Lesson #1: There is no such thing as a 'sure thing'. 1986 marked the beginning of the end for Tony Dorsett as he failed to reach the 1000-yard mark for only the 2nd time in 10 seasons. While Tony's career was on the decline and a myriad of roster blunders saw my team miss the playoffs in my inaugural campaign, those hard knocks fostered a work ethic and a burning desire to win, that I didn't even know I had in me until I experienced losing like that at the hands of my peers.

18 seasons have now passed and our keeper league has grown to 12 members with a waiting list that will never get fulfilled. All 10 founding members are still going strong. Are we 'experts'? I don't know. Define a fantasy football expert and I'll match my league members against any expert out there. If experience is a main criteria all of my league members would qualify. I had a nice phone conversation with Adam Caplan of FootballInjuries.com last summer and we both agreed that the toughest fantasy football opponents are the ones that know you best. I mean really know you. Know how you think. Know how you negotiate. Know your strategies. And know your biases (we all have them whether we realize it or not). 4 Championships (tops in our league) and a Runner-Up 4 times in 18 seasons is a record I'm extremely proud of.

I delved into the Survivor format for the first time last season. I competed in 2 leagues. I won one of them and failed miserably in the other. I have since honed my strategy based in large part on the mistakes I made last season. I could write a long synopsis in great detail of the specifics of my Survivor strategy. But, then I'd have to kill you all. So I won't.

I can not apply for a place on this team without in good conscience letting you in on some personal stuff going on my life. My wife and I are expecting our second child to arrive any day now. My mother-in-law arrived in town today to stay with us, and the faster this baby arrives, the sooner my mother-in-law can....I digress. I would be shocked if this baby does not arrive momentarily and thus give me ample availability for this draft. I am always on the top of my game and my football intelligence is organized year round so preparation is not an issue. However, IF I should be honored with a roster spot, an alternate team member should be 'on call' so to speak, just in case. I run an Internet business, so wireless access is always within reach. Keeping you informed of my situation is a commitment I give to you should I be chosen.

This forum is a tremendous resource. We have all benefited greatly from the intelligent debate and banter that echos in these cyber walls all year round. No matter who is selected there will be no wrong choices in the group. I am certain of that. You will carry the Shark Pool mantle with pride and you will have the support and best wishes from all of us posters.

Soon I will be launching Footblog.com. It is a project I have been working on for some time now. A labor of love that will be a place (along with this forum) for me to vent and espouse on all things football related. The Shark Pool will be the only football forum to have link presence on this site as I truly believe there is nothing else comparable to it on this planet. Thank-you Joe and David for giving the fantasy football community this precious gem.

Best of luck to the Shark Pool Team.

Grouse.

 

[Sinrman]

Name: Kevin Theobald (a.k.a. Sinrman)

Favorite NFL team: Detroit Lions (and yes, I still admit it)

Favorite NFL player (all-time): Barry Sanders

Favorite NFL players (current): (tie) LaDanian Tomlinson & Torry Holt

Years of Fantasy Football Experience: 8

Bio:

Where to start? I've played fantasy football since 1997, when a group of college friends and I started a league (which we still play today). It's been downhill ever since! :rotflmao:

Anywho, as the years progress, my addiction for fantasy football grows. As my signature shows, I was in an insane # of leagues last year (not recommended, BTW ). I don't plan on going QUITE that nuts this year. But hey, being single with no kids, I can afford to spend a lot of time playing fantasy football. Over the years, and especially through last year, I am in, or have been a part of nearly any type of league you can imagine. I've seen just about every imagineable scoring system, every imagineable drafting strategy, etc. I enjoy every single league I've ever been in, as they are all unique in their own way. So I have the experience. And I have the passion for fantasy football. It is my full-time hobby. I enjoy putting my skills and knowledge to the test against other sharks out there.

To be quite honest, I used last year as a test. Being in so many leagues, I was able to test out MANY different drafting strategies. Without giving away TOO many secrets, I will let you in on my fantasy football philosophy, which is quite simple -- WIN NOW! I am a very competitive person, and do not have much patience to wait around for players to HOPEFULLY reach their full potential (there are, of course, a few exceptions). This can sometimes get me into trouble, but overall this has turned out well for me. I am willing to pull the trigger on a trade that involves some young, talented rookie with potential for a more proven veteran. I feel consistency is the key to winning in fantasy football. This may be why I feel one of the best fantasy football players of all-time is Curtis "My Favorite" Martin. He has been one of THE most consistent players EVER. Or at least during my time playing fantasy football. I would MUCH rather have someone who scores like 10 points consistently a week over someone who scores 30 one week, then goes cold for four weeks straight, then blows up again.

My daily job allows me to surf the internet quite a lot during the day, so I am able to stay on top of NFL news (injuries, trades, etc.) I've been a member of this board since the very early days, and enjoyed it immensely. There really are some great sharks out there, and I play against a good number of you each year in a variety of leagues.

If you'd like to see a few I am in, here's a few examples:

http://football.myfantasyleague.com/2003/home/58196

(The Zealots league, started by Oscar Knight last year - I was the Detroit Lions in Z3 - I was in the toughest division by FAR, and failed to make it into the playoffs, even with a 9-5 record, since only 4 out of 12 teams make it - the eventual winner came from my division)

http://football.myfantasyleague.com/2003/home/81997

(One of two of Unlucky's "Greek Leagues" that I was a part of last year - I was the Detroit Wyverns - highlights here included beating Footballguys very own SHICK! quite badly in Week 12 and Unlucky himself in Week 5 - lost in the playoffs due to my opponent getting blow up games from Boldin, Taylor, and Lewis)

http://football.myfantasyleague.com/2003/home/89946

(One of two leagues that I was Commissioner of last year - I was the Deathvalley Diablos - one of the top teams that got knocked out right before the Championship)

http://football.myfantasyleague.com/2004/home/42618

(An orphaned team, the San Diego Bolts, that I picked up last year and JUST missed the Championship game)

http://football.myfantasyleague.com/2003/home/73573

(See? I won't show you JUST the good teams! I'm not perfect! My team was the Detroit Darkside)

There are many, many other leagues I am in, and still am. Some include the Europe Central, Warzone, XLDL, Shark Pool Dynasty, AOL, Dark Side FFL, and on and on and on...

Anyways, it would be an honor to represent the members, and spank some Footballguy staff BOOTAY!

 

[JZilla]

I wasn't going to apply but my friend Cody said I should give it a shot. I should be in because I know I suck, therefore if we do lose, you guys can blame it all on me and I'll be fine with that.Also, I managed to come in fourth place out of sixteen in MBSL2 with the following roster:Jon KitnaChris RedmanTiki BarberEddie GeorgeLaveranues ColesTroy BrownTai StreetsKevin JohnsonSteve SmithDerrius ThompsonJustin McCareinsTerry GlennFrank SandersRon DugansTodd HeapSebastian JanikowskiTitansTexansAlso, I know stuff about the Survivor TV show, which can't hurt, as well as fast food, bad alternative music and baseball.Also, Gatorman mentioned me in his post, and I have no idea why; perhaps I did him a favor that I can't remember.Also, I'm a Certified Zippypal®.

 

[Capella]

Sweet Jesus, I hope he doesn't have to read all of this.

Capella's Application

I was one of the 25,000 people to finish ahead of Shuke in the FBG survivor contest last year. I am proud of that accomplishment.

Like JoeT, I am under the skin of Jason Wood, but more for the constant reminder that his favorite football team is a collection of choking dogs. So I could harp on him about that all year long. I'll even name my team the "Ronde Barber All-Stars".That's all I got.

 

[660]

I think this would cool to try and would like to throw my hat into consideration. My Fantasy Football experience is like many other’s here, years and years of dominating leagues full of fools and a great deal of time devoted to this game. I can be credited with running a fantasy football manager called Fantasy Stats, which has produced at least one Football Guys contributor (JW). Fantasy Stats was started in 1999 and ran for 3 seasons until the 2001 season. At our peek we had 500 leagues with about 5500 members. After this third season I sold the domain name and moved on after the birth of my first daughter.I have always enjoyed this game and am always looking for way to improve upon anything I touch. So in consideration of my application realize that you get more then just a team owner but someone who will assist and help improve the league to use my talents in any manner feasible, if legal .When assembling my fantasy team I look to both have a team I enjoy watching and greatness. This makes my work more difficult as I try to avoid players I don’t like but often find myself struggle as what to do, head verse heart. I like depth more then superstars and spend much more time on the middle third of the draft then the top third. I have mastered Microsoft Excel for the sole purpose of my Fantasy Football research. I enjoy the draft to the point where I obsess for months prior with statistical analysis.Thank you for your considerationGateway

 

[valence]

Instead of making you read a novel like in the other posts, i'll keep it short.I've been playing the game (h2h flavor)for going on 7 years and have never finished worse then 3rd, averaging 5-7 leagues a year and having won 19 championships. last year was my first foray into the survivor format and participated in nearly 100 of them through xpert leagues and won many. I participated in mbsl III and was knocked out early (week 5 i think) because of injuries to a few of my top picks. I'm not making excuses, it's just the truth plain and simple.I'm not a heavy poster, so i guess i'm one of the unknown. I would however love a chance to play in the big leagues and prove my mettle.if you have any questions feel free to PM me.thanks for your time and consideration, congrats on being selected as captain, and whether or not I'm selected I'll be rooting for you

 

[popeye]

I would like to apply for the following reasons.1) I'd be less likely to end up with disciplinary actions in the future.2) All I really care about is the money and if me drafting skill players from the Chargers who aren't named Tomlinson would help the team I might do it.3) I would say random things that really wouldn't be of any use to anyone. Actually, on second thought, you could just go to the FFA for that.4) I do well in group settings.That is all

 

[rzrback77]

I have been playing for three years now and like all these other applicants, I think I'm good. I enjoy drafting survivor style at xpertleagues.com and drafting is the primary survivor skill.

And I'm not at all like you my Captain..... because

I'M LUCKY!

Lucky and Good, a lethal combination for Survivor.

Thanks for your consideration.

 

[Yamato]

Wow...a lot of talent in here. Not sure if I qualify but I'll take a shot.Experience: Playing fantasy football since 1990.Draft Theories/Rankings Preparation/ and How I approach this Style of Draft: Knowledge of your opponent. Survivor leagues...you have to look at the schedule...maybe the most important thing. I like to use QBBC if I can't get a good QB in the middle rounds. To evaluate players I use team stats and then give a percentage to the player (cuts down on over valuing positions). I use AVT and AVD to determine player ranking. I generally like playing it safe early in the draft and get value later on. Also use defense by committee. Things usually don't go as planed in many drafts so have a lot of options going in. Accomplishments: 5 time league champion in local league that has been in existence for 15 years with most participants with 5 or more years experience. Finished in the money 10 of 14 years. Last year was my first year in the Greek leagues. Participated in 6 leagues. Won 2 leagues (Gamma, Upsilon). Was regular season champion for Omega 4 which included Maurile Trombley. Won Upsilon league were I defeated David Shick in the championship game. Was points champion in 4 of the 6 leagues (Omega 4, Gamma, Upsilon, and Omikron) and was the point’s champion of all 8 Omega leagues with 96 owners. Good luck to all and I hope Unlucky doesn't have to lose any sleep on who to pick. And you won't have to worry if you don't pick me...I’m going to be in as many Phenom leagues as possible.Gallawiggas

 

[Joseph]

Unlucky, I hope you consider me for this.I've been an infrequent poster here since the site was "cheatsheets.net", and even though I have never been one of the more noticible posters, I feel like I've added some insight where I can.My first year in fantasy football was 1998. I won my local league in my rookie season, and have been hooked ever since. After a couple of years of being consistently ahead of the competition in my local league, I decided I needed to find out how good I could be at this game. I started looking for a league where there was going to be a higher level of competition. I found the Ultimate Fantasy Football Pyramid. This league was started mainly with FBG members 3 years ago, and is still running strong. A lot of the message board members (and a few staff) have participated in those leagues. For those who don't know, we started out 3 years ago with 36 players. Those were split into 3 leagues. The top finishers among the 36 moved on to a "second tier" of 2 leagues. From there, the top finishers advanced to the top tier. I won the first ever "UFFP Championship" last season, and the year before won my 2nd tier league as well. I'd put the quality of competition in the the pyramid on a par with just about any league you could find. I look at an "expert" league like this as a great next step to see where I stand. I've gotten a bit lucky over the past couple of years (every championship has some luck involved in it), but 2 straight titles over some stellar competition shows that I've got a pretty high degree of skill as well. If you put me in this contest, I'll do my best not to let the message board down.

 

[switz]

Ever wonder what happens to the kid in gym who stands in line yelling "pick me! pick me!" and always gets picked last? Me too.I received a PM today saying I should apply for "the contest." The individual inciting me to apply hasn't even applied himself, nor even recommended my application within this thread. Neither was I informed why I should apply. So why should I?I don't play fantasy football for money. I really could care less about money, and that's not what the game is about.I'm not too concerned about ego-boosting peer adoration, since I already dominated the RSFF in the inaugural NGFFL season, winning not only my 12-team league, but the 60-team championship.And I'm not too impressed by any achievements involving besting some experts in their field because I already defeated the entire "The Winning Drive" staff some years back.So what does entering this contest offer me? Competition - I have that. Adoration - already received. Respect - unnecessary. Money - valueless.But there once was a man widely viewed as wise, who said "Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country." That makes sense. Out of appreciation for the Message Board users, many of whom I respect, some of whom I do not, I will hereby submit my application for "the contest."Does my draft strategy merit consideration? I'm uncertain, since it varies by league. It can be summed up in one word - flexibility. There are the WR Stud theorists, and their distant cousins the RB Stud theorists. Joe's disciples, the VBDers have a contingency as well. None of these are wrong, but none are truly right. The key is flexibility, the others theories are merely tools.Accomplishments are for people who live in the past. Whether I won a championshiop last year only tells you that I had a good team last year or not. But what bearing does that have on this year? None. I can tell you that I've produced two different fantasy web sites, I've written for a number of others, and I've played the game since before there were web sites. Is that enough?I will not stand in the line and yell "pick me! pick me!" - but if I am picked I will give an earnest effort.

 

[Yah_Shoor_Yoobetchya]

Unlucky, I hope you consider me for this.I've been an infrequent poster here since the site was "cheatsheets.net", and even though I have never been one of the more noticible posters, I feel like I've added some insight where I can.My first year in fantasy football was 1998. I won my local league in my rookie season, and have been hooked ever since. After a couple of years of being consistently ahead of the competition in my local league, I decided I needed to find out how good I could be at this game. I started looking for a league where there was going to be a higher level of competition. I found the Ultimate Fantasy Football Pyramid. This league was started mainly with FBG members 3 years ago, and is still running strong. A lot of the message board members (and a few staff) have participated in those leagues. For those who don't know, we started out 3 years ago with 36 players. Those were split into 3 leagues. The top finishers among the 36 moved on to a "second tier" of 2 leagues. From there, the top finishers advanced to the top tier. I won the first ever "UFFP Championship" last season, and the year before won my 2nd tier league as well. I'd put the quality of competition in the the pyramid on a par with just about any league you could find. I look at an "expert" league like this as a great next step to see where I stand. I've gotten a bit lucky over the past couple of years (every championship has some luck involved in it), but 2 straight titles over some stellar competition shows that I've got a pretty high degree of skill as well. If you put me in this contest, I'll do my best not to let the message board down.

Although I will not be submitting an application, I would like to be the 1st to vehemently (albeit belatedly) nominate Joseph. He rose to the top of the UFFP amongst a plethora of FF knowledge & experience.I think the rest of the UFFPers will 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc, etc this nomination.Good luck, Joseph! YSY

 

[Unlucky]

I've moved the deadline ahead to next Wednesday. This will give the team members a few more days to prepare.

 

[crazygutgut]

Ever wonder what happens to the kid in gym who stands in line yelling "pick me! pick me!" and always gets picked last? Me too.I received a PM today saying I should apply for "the contest." The individual inciting me to apply hasn't even applied himself, nor even recommended my application within this thread. Neither was I informed why I should apply. So why should I?

For the record, that PM was from me. I would apply, I have won my share of leagues, one was a Greek league last season. However, I feel there are just too many others on this board more qualified than I am, for now.I did recommend you in this thread, something like "has Switz applied? He should." But it was taken down, I think they don't want a lot of clutter in this thread.Anyway, I thought you would be good choice since you make predictions sometimes that come from out of the blue and usually happen (Bouldin is the first thing to come to mind.) The team needs someone that can come up with surprises like that.

 

[switz]

Ever wonder what happens to the kid in gym who stands in line yelling "pick me! pick me!" and always gets picked last? Me too.I received a PM today saying I should apply for "the contest." The individual inciting me to apply hasn't even applied himself, nor even recommended my application within this thread. Neither was I informed why I should apply. So why should I?

For the record, that PM was from me. I would apply, I have won my share of leagues, one was a Greek league last season. However, I feel there are just too many others on this board more qualified than I am, for now.I did recommend you in this thread, something like "has Switz applied? He should." But it was taken down, I think they don't want a lot of clutter in this thread.Anyway, I thought you would be good choice since you make predictions sometimes that come from out of the blue and usually happen (Bouldin is the first thing to come to mind.) The team needs someone that can come up with surprises like that.

Well thanks for the recommendation BTW - you should apply. Though many may seem more qualified, you certainly have enough experience to play, and definitely the right to apply!

 

[Zaphod]

Unlucky, I hope you consider me for this.I've been an infrequent poster here since the site was "cheatsheets.net", and even though I have never been one of the more noticible posters, I feel like I've added some insight where I can.My first year in fantasy football was 1998. I won my local league in my rookie season, and have been hooked ever since. After a couple of years of being consistently ahead of the competition in my local league, I decided I needed to find out how good I could be at this game. I started looking for a league where there was going to be a higher level of competition. I found the Ultimate Fantasy Football Pyramid. This league was started mainly with FBG members 3 years ago, and is still running strong. A lot of the message board members (and a few staff) have participated in those leagues. For those who don't know, we started out 3 years ago with 36 players. Those were split into 3 leagues. The top finishers among the 36 moved on to a "second tier" of 2 leagues. From there, the top finishers advanced to the top tier. I won the first ever "UFFP Championship" last season, and the year before won my 2nd tier league as well. I'd put the quality of competition in the the pyramid on a par with just about any league you could find. I look at an "expert" league like this as a great next step to see where I stand. I've gotten a bit lucky over the past couple of years (every championship has some luck involved in it), but 2 straight titles over some stellar competition shows that I've got a pretty high degree of skill as well. If you put me in this contest, I'll do my best not to let the message board down.

Although I will not be submitting an application, I would like to be the 1st to vehemently (albeit belatedly) nominate Joseph. He rose to the top of the UFFP amongst a plethora of FF knowledge & experience.I think the rest of the UFFPers will 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc, etc this nomination.Good luck, Joseph! YSY

I would like to pile on here. Joseph is simply a well prepared, strategist that never seems to be caught unaware as a draft unfolds. His dedication to the hobby and knowing both his competition and the rules, have helped catapult him to the top of just about every league he participates in.He is both a compiler of steady producers and 'home-run hitters'. He is one of the few FF players that I know I will have a tough time against and I usually stack my team against his to see how I did in a draft.You could do much worse than picking him. I know you have a tough time ahead of you, but I hope you don't let the propensity of posts sway your thinking too far. Quality should always outweigh quantity. This guy is too good to leave off the squad.

 

[DenverBuc]

OK - Here goes.Nothing flashy about me, my posts, or my history here on the boards. Been here since the cheatsheet days.Post infrequently, but browse every day.I have played for 8 years now in redrafts only and have won 4 different times, two different leagues.I study for the draft like a fiend and that is generally how I do so well. My draft is extremely solid and I don't need to make a lot of moves through waivers or trades as a result.Bottom line - I am passionate about FF, I study like a mofo for the draft, and I am confident that I would draft a solid team and help lift the MB Team to victory!

 

[joffer]

I suppose I'll give it a shot, seems a little odd to be applying for a position on a FF team, but what the hell. Thanks to all that suggested I was a good candidate.

I started with this incredibly addicting hobby in '97. It was really just a casual thing for the first two years, but that all changed on opening weekend in '99 when Vinny Greenballs tore his achilles tendon. So I pick up some former grocery store stock boy named Kurt Warner, and the rest as they say is history. I won the league that year and the next and I was hooked.

I play about 5-6 serious leagues a year, and usually a free yahoo league or two just to make sure I win something. I've done WCOFF the last two years, and I'll be back for a third try this year. I finished 7-4 both times, no league titles or playoff bracket births yet. I can't seem to get over the hump from good team to great team. I was in Omega League 3 last year and took 3rd place in Mu (my first auction). I've also participated in the IBL the last couple of years (that's a great league). As far as a Survivor Leagues, I think I did a total of 24 xpertleague drafts last year and won 6. Not great considering the competition but not terrible either.

As far as drafting theories and preparation, I've done my own projections the last two years and I'm about half way through my first pass at them this year. I think projections are one of the most enjoyable parts about fantasy football, and they offer some big advantages:

1. They make you look at every potential contributor on every team, and are a good reality check for projecting a whole offense. It doesn't make sense to project Seattle's RBs/WRs/TEs to catch 30 TDs if you've only got Hasselback down for 24.

2. It's the best and fastest way to adapt your rankings to a particular scoring system. Looking at some of the oddities of this format (like 2 pts for TE receptions), I think that will be important.

3. It lets you approximate not only "Who do I like more?", but "How much more do I like them?". Personally, I find it difficult to remove personal biases in rankings without numbers to quantify them.

Once I have projections, I'm pretty much a strict Dynamic VBD enthusiast. I have my own spreadsheet that I've used the last few years that takes into account ADP from Xperts and Antsports and looks 2-3 rounds ahead. From what I'm hearing about the Draft Dominator, I may be moving to that tool this year and inputting my own projections.

This format is a little unique, but sound drafting is sound drafting, and value is value any way you slice it. I'm pretty sold on Dodds' survivor theory of a multiple defense-by committed approach, especially with this kind of defensive scoring. The fact that special teams' return TDs get counted increases the chance that 2-3 mediocre defenses will score even with the Ravens DT over the long haul. Other than that, there's not too much that's unusual about my approach. I don't generally take QBs or TEs early, and I'm not RB-crazy, unless of course they represent the best value. I also favor the QB-WR and QB-RB hookups in the survivor format, but I won't reach to get it.

Well, I guess that's about it. I'd love a shot to go against the staff, and there's A LOT of qualified posters on this board that could give them a run for their money. I don't envy you your task Mike, and I appreciate the consideration.

 

[Kleck]

So no dissent, no humor, no alternative perspectives welcome. Just the choir marching in lock step with the sanctioned orthodoxy.This might be a good time to discuss the dangers of inbreeding.

Let's be real clear. This is not the place to give your commentary on the proceedings. If you want to stand on a chair holding a large red sign that says, "Hey everyone! Look at me!", do it in this thread.If you have anymore questions, send me a PM. If I have to clean this thread up because you feel you just have to be heard, I guarantee you won't be heard anymore.

 

[ardethan]

O Captain! My Captain!

Writing

I am a good writer. I was the managing editor for an undergraduate publication with a fairly large readership (distributed to 10,000 students and faculty). My job is primarily concerned with writing and technical design.

FF Bona Fides

Like many on this thread, I am an occasional contributor to this board (Shark Pool at least--FFA scares me). I am fairly new to the dismal science of Fantasy Football--having entered my first league (redraft) and come in second place with the points title. I am in three dynasty leagues this year, but obviously there is no track record there. I have not beaten the pope in any league, nor have I managed to win any leagues despite losing both starting RB's to Ebola. I am, however, a pretty good FF player and drafter.

Survivor League Ability / Theory

I would humbly submit that your main criterium should not be who is good at FF (because we are all pretty good), but who can best capitalize on the unique survivor league format.

To begin with, the foundation of a good survivor draft is the same as for any redraft: good projections and a sense for ADP. Please note that I don't project everybody: basically I have little confidence in my ability to project 200-odd players. My approach is similar to that of EastBayFunk: identify a few players (20-30) who I think are pretty undervalued and target those in my draft. Just as Warren Buffett stays within his "circle of competency" of stocks he understands and Ted Williams would wait for the "perfect pitch", I stake my success on having a good sense for only a few players. Of course if somebody I am not targeting falls precipitously I will consider them, but this is not my preference.

Survivor, however, has some unique challenges. To begin with, there is the old redraft adage that "you can't win a championship on draft day, but you can lose one". Obviously that is not true in survivor--you can win and you can lose. This isn't a trivial point: in redraft you can afford to be a little bit lazy toward the end of the draft, assuming you will waive them before long anyway to pick up the next Boldin. In survivor, if you want a sleeper, you have to be willing to pick him during the draft. On the flipside, you can't afford to spend your last five picks on the Tony Hollings and Bryant Johnsons of the world hoping for a DD and a Boldin. Personally, I think it's wise to avoid all deep sleepers in survivor (both Boldin and DD would have qualified)--although guys like the top 3-5 WR's this year are fair game (as I have said on other threads, I think at least one rookie WR this year will be top 10).

In Survivor, it pays to be cautious. This is lame, because we all like to hit the big one. But in a league where one bad week kills you, you can't afford to overspend on a Marshall Faulk or a Tatum Bell. I am a big proponent in normal leagues of looking at PPG rather than year end totals, but in survivor you have to pay attention to the minimum game baseline. As an example: last year I took Onterrio Smith in round 10 of a redraft. In survivor, I probably wouldn't have taken him until round 15 or so.

In a no-start league, depth in highly-variant positions is key. Many FF players hate the TE and PK positions because they are so random. One week Tony Gonzalez will go for 60 yards and Mikhael Ricks goes for 12 yards and 2 TD's and you get killed. In a no-start league, though, standard deviations like that are your friend. I did the math on another survivor thread, but essentially it's this: if you have three TE's, each of which has a 3/16 chance of scoring a TD (i.e. they will score 3 TD's all season and nobody knows when), you have a (1 - (1-3/16)^3) = 46% chance of getting a TD in any given week, or 7.5 TD's in a season. That's pretty impressive given that a TE that should go for 8 TD's will go in the fourth round, and you can get three scrub TE's like that in rounds 16-18 probably. Similar logic should apply to kickers, because they also have huge fluctuations in their scores. I don't think that logic will apply to other positions like WR or RB because a) a scrub WR or RB is unlikely to outscore a good player even on a great day, and b) you can't pick up a scrub RB who will sniff the field in round 18. In short: unless you can get great value (like Gonzo in round 12), I would go for a total of five or six TE's and PK's (COMBINED not each), all taken in the very late rounds. Just to be clear, this will not work for a league where you have to choose your starters, only in a best-start league. All told, I would go for 2-4 QB's (ideally around the 15th-20th taken overall unless a great value falls), 2-5 RB's (probably all taken in early rounds), 5-6 TE/PK, 2-3 DT, 5-7 WR (at least one stud if possible).

Recommendations

Whether I am chosen or not, I strongly recommend the following:

-Couch Potato. He is a good writer, an experienced FF'er and I think he won the shark pool survivor league last year.

-Switz aka "the man who gave us Boldin". Seriously, I think he has a very good eye for talent. He is one of the only people who I think can ignore my "caution" rule and actually succeed at picking the deep sleepers.

 

[radballs.]

First of all Mike, I’d like to congratulate you on your appointment. I realize that this will be a difficult task, but I was a staunch supporter of yours early on (Unlucky Support). I realize that you not only have an extremely high fantasy football acumen, but that you’ve also demonstrated fairness and enthusiasm administering your leagues. Good luck with your decision.

My Background

I turned 36 today and live in Sacramento, California. I received my bachelor’s degree in economics with a minor in English from Cornell University in 1990. Last year, I completed my MBA with a concentration in finance from the University of California, Davis. I have been the chief financial officer for a small chain of retail music stores in the greater Sacramento area for almost ten years. Outside of my family and career, fantasy football is my primary hobby.

My Fantasy Football Experience

I’ve participated in fantasy football for over a decade and admit logging quite a bit of time on the footballguys website over the last few years. My wife isn’t too happy about that, but I can’t help it because I live for the analysis, the competition, and the camaraderie on the message boards. I spend most of my time in the Shark Pool and have recently begun contributing more in the IDP forum. I also really enjoy crunching numbers and doing statistical analysis on historical fantasy football performance. You can click the link below to look at a WR study that I completed three months ago from data on www.pro-football-reference.com.

Projecting free agent WR performance who have switched teams

Aside from the five local leagues in which I participate and commission, I have also been an entrant in the WCOFF regular leagues as well as the Draft Masters division. Yes, David Dodds kicked my butt in that $1,000 entry fee league last year. I am also a member of Zealots leagues and will be competing with Colin Dowling and Aaron Rudnicki in Z10. Over the last couple of years, I have participated in a few survivor leagues, winning a few and usually surviving deep into the contest. My overall track record is impressive.

Draft Strategies and Rankings Preparation

Commentary about the importance and manner in which I generate player projections

Once I have completed my projections, I generally employ dynamic value based drafting as a tool to help guide my decision making throughout a draft. I have found that this approach works very well since it factors in my own team needs as well as those of the other participants. The overall key to my drafting strategy is remaining flexible throughout the draft in order to maximize value with every pick given the league rules and scoring parameters. I also incorporate average draft positions from multiple websites in order to get a better gauge for players that I feel I can wait one more round on.

Survivor Draft Approach

Obviously, in a survivor league there is much more focus on the bye weeks than in other types of leagues. First of all, I believe that it is better to have your bye weeks earlier rather than later in the year. I feel that it is easier to overcome bye weeks and still survive early in the season when there are still a lot of teams competing.

Second, without sacrificing value, I believe that it is important for players within and across positions to have different bye weeks. Since the rules state that you do not participate in the current week if you earned immunity in the prior week, I also think that it will be very important to space bye weeks out by at least two weeks within a position grouping. My belief here is that it would be ideal to be back at full strength within a position grouping the week after your immunity expires so that you have another legitimate shot at immunity again. In other words, I’d rather have two running backs that have bye weeks of 3 and 5 instead of weeks 3 and 4. This assumes that you’ve earned immunity the week before one of your running backs has his bye. But, these are some of the little variables that I also factor into my planning and preparation for a survivor draft. Obviously, the more often you can gain immunity, the better your odds are of surviving further into the game.

I also feel that it is important to minimize selecting “risky” players in a survivor format. I generally target players that have high ratios of projected fantasy points/projected weekly standard deviation in order to compile a team of steadier producers. Streaky players can knock you out of a survivor league very quickly. However, late in the draft, I’m much more likely to take a couple of chances and go with players who have a lot of upside.

Conclusion

I believe that my past fantasy football experience combined with the unique strategies that I employ in survivor leagues will make me a strong competitor. I have the time and desire necessary to properly prepare, draft, and comment on an extremely competitive team. Thank you for considering my credentials. I’d love nothing more than to take down the FBG staff and bring a championship to the message board.

Sincerely,

Ollie Radakovitz, aka radballs

E-mail: radballs@aol.com

 

[rgabbard]

I know the mods don't want this filled with clutter so I'll ask my question and then give my application....Is it really the smartest idea for MB's to give out their draft strategies so that all the Mods can see? Just wondering.... Ok, now for my application...I'm in the category of "lurker" and I know that when I die, I'll have to look at the good Lord and give an account for the ungodly amount of time that I spend here. So my plan is to point the finger at JoeB and say it's his fault... :HellToup:I've played FF for 7 or 8 years. I started out in my work league and went online to see if I could get some tips and gain an edge over my co-workers. I eventually surfed my way over to Cheatsheets.net and I've been hooked ever since. I'm currently playing FF in the Zealots (Z3 and Z21), No Mercy (Guppy Division), along with a few other leagues. I quickly learned the differnce between my local leagues and my online leagues. I'm not the greatest FF player but I love trying to compete with some of these guys. The best thing I like about the more skilled FF owners is that they don't follow the masses. Most have their own ideas and gut feelings. I try and incorporate what I know and what I continuously learn to get better. My writing skills aren't the greatest. I usually have to preview my posts 3 or 4 times before I hit the "add reply" button. And even then, I usually misspell or leave out a word....I really think it's a incurable disease and I blame my English teachers for not spotting it sooner. I'm also guilty of using "..." a lot since I think it looks so much better than just a plain ole "." My draft strategies are just that...mine...if I'm in contention for a spot, PM me and I'll expound...I don't trust those dirty conniving mods There are many good posters here and quite a few excellent posters, but sorting through each of them is a job that I do not envy. I only hope that those that don't make the cut, don't ##### and moan about how they should have been on the team...There's nothing worse than grown men crying about FF..... Thanks for your time.

 

[Couch Potato]

As I submit my application, Unlucky, I ask that you recognize that the clowning you often see in my posts is complementary to, and not a substitute for, my competitive passion. I enjoy giving folks something that brings a smile to their faces, and I find the message board a nice outlet for that side of me. I’d like to think that for purposes of this application those goofy posts actually help demonstrate my personal writing style and skill (I’ve also contributed fantasy articles in the past - several years back - for the Contra Costa Times, my employer), and beyond that I trust you’ll understand when it comes to winning I am thoroughly prepared and deadly serious. Unfortunately you have never shared a league with me, but those here who have do not doubt my knowledge or abilities. A few in Dodds’ contest announcement thread who know me were kind enough to suggest me for the team, and even for team captain. You’ll see no clowning in this application, for I am deadly serious about being on this team and helping take home a championship for the Message Board.

I bring to the table a length and breadth of experience few can match. I have been successfully involved in just about every sort of football contest imaginable for many years, from head-to-head fantasy leagues to CDM-style rotisserie contests to survivor contests to NFL pick ‘em contests to you-name-it. This will be my 24th consecutive year in fantasy football (Arthur Andersen & Co., my old CPA firm, may now be gone but its league still lives!), and since my 1981 rookie season I have succeeded in redraft, keeper, dynasty, salary cap rotisserie, and survivor formats. I recognize the differences in drafting methods necessary to be successful in differing formats.

You asked for draft theories and rankings preparation information. That is very hard to describe sufficiently here in a few sentences. I’ll say first that there is no substitute for knowledge and experience. I’ve maintained my knowledge of the NFL and all that entails for FF purposes on a daily basis for 24 seasons. I have the experience of hundreds of mock and real drafts, refining my drafting skills over time until it has become an art form rather than a rote formula or set of rankings to be followed as so many others do. Do I use projections? Yes. Do I recognize the strengths (and weaknesses) of value-based drafting? Yes. Do I go well beyond those two concepts? I’d damn well better if I’m going to be successful. I think experienced and successful drafters know what I mean by this, but I’ll elaborate anyway.

I like to analogize drafting to painting. Some draft as if it were paint-by-number, plugging in someone else’s projections and VBD formula, then drafting down the list spit out by a website. The end result is a simple picture (team) which has all the colors in the right places and is nice but looks pretty much like every other paint-by-number team. It can never be a work of art, well-blended and balanced. I instead begin with a blank canvas and a good idea of what I’m expecting my painting to look like when completed, trusting my knowledge, experience, tools, and preparation to recognize how the details must be fleshed out as I go. The upside, downside, and various risks of each player picked affects my decisions as to future picks. Factors such as others’ previous picks and future needs, anticipated runs on positions, number of picks between my picks, sizes of ‘buckets’ of players, etc. all get factored in. The value of experience is that a lot of this is done intuitively and on the fly in a live draft. There’s a ‘feel’ that can’t really be explained but is very real, and Unlucky, I think as a successful drafter yourself you have to know what I’m talking about. When the draft is over and the canvas is fully painted, I have a work of art rather than a paint-by-number picture. An untrained eye may not even recognize it as such, and it is not until put to the test - the playing of the season - that my roster proves itself. Other owners often scratch their heads at the end and wonder why my bunch came through when in the beginning of the year it didn’t look so special to them... but I know why.

Specific to survivor leagues, there are certainly differences in drafting principles which must be understood and applied to be successful. How to draft to increase the likelihood of weekly consistency is of course very important, and that involves a lot of things I’m not going to get into here. It’s not difficult to find articles on survivor strategy on the internet and there are some very sound ones available. I’d suggest, though, that this is not the time for someone who has applied for this team to be running to find those articles and taking their first stab at learning about survivor leagues. Someone who has not already understood and applied the ideas behind successful survivor drafting before now probably should not be asking to be included in this 12-member team. I’m not trying to be smug about this; it’s just that this contest is about winning, not practicing, and there are a lot of lower profile venues to develop skills not already possessed.

Well, that’s about it. I know this was long but I hope it gives you a better sense of me (since we share no leagues together), and removes any notion that all I’m about is clowning. That’s a fun little diversion, but winning is my passion.

Bruce Hammond

 

[Northern Voice]

Thanks to Unlucky for taking the time to sift through all these applicants in the quest to build what will surely be a strong, winning team. After reading most of the applications, it's pretty obvious that this will be a very capable team no matter who is selected.As for myself, I've been playing fantasy football since 1997. In that year I had the chance to join a local league my brother was participating in. In time I became the commissioner of that league and started to take fantasy football a bit more seriously. Fast forward to about 4 years ago where I joined what I believe was then the cheatsheets.net message boards. From here I became involved in my first internet league, a contract based IDP dynasty league called the Leather Helmet League, part of the Pigskin Syndicate. This past year I was finally able to win the championship in this league after coming a close second the two previous years.Over the past couple years I've joined a few more leagues, including the Serious Football League, No Mercy and the Ultimate Fantasy Football Pyramid. I've won the championship in a lot of leagues, I've finished in the middle of the pack, I've even finished last once or twice but I've always competed hard.I use the common sense approach to drafting. I take a lot of principles used by VBD but don't apply them in the strictest form. A lot of my picks are made based on how I read the progression of the draft - both who has been selected up to the point where I'm picking and who I feel will be selected afterwards. I played in dynasty leagues before ever joining a redraft league and this has shaped the way I draft. I tend towards high-upside players rather than safer "middle of the road" selections. I do get burned as a result of this strategy but when it pays off with guys like Shaun Alexander or Clinton Portis hitting big from a mid-draft selection, it more than atones for failed selections.My rankings are very deep and prepared well in advance of the draft. I rank the players according to the order in which I would actually draft them. I look at historical statistics, present situation and other factors that I feel could affect their output. The order in which I would select the players is the order that they appear on my rankings. What I mean by this is that I don't let outside rankings affect the order in which I value players. If I think that Marcus Robinson is going to go off for 1300 yards and 12 TD's this year (I don't), he will be in my top 5 WR's when I do my rankings. I don't move players according to what the perceptions of the masses are regarding the way players "should" be ranked and selected.I like to think that I have above average writing skills. I'm currently in my third year of university where I am an English loser... er, major. I enjoy the act of writing. Many who I've competed against can attest to my long-windedness and I see this draft as a potential outlet for both my desire to compete with the best and my love of defending a position through literal means.I'd also like to throw my support behind Pick. The guy has great writing skills and doesn't follow the pack, you need guys like that in this type of league.

 

[ExtraPoint]

I'm the man because I hate the whole survival league play not to lose Style. I'm your guy because I cant stand the thought of plugging innaccurate projections into a VBD application. You should pick me because I'll make the most contraversial picks and back them up with even more contraversial reasoning. You know you want me because even though I could claim to be best friends with the very person who invented fantasy football, I wont. My icon next to my nickname makes me cool! If I think the FBG staff is cheating before the finals I'll quit even if you cant trade, drop players, start/bench players, or pickup FAs. Even though I can afford to buy my own FBG subscription, I wont pay it. I cant get direct TV where I live. The only time I've ever gone to see an NFL game in person it was the Chargers. I remember they beat their division rival... the Indians. I get disconnected from the internet regulary and my power goes out a couple times a week. I uninstalled my instant messanger. I dont want emails from a bunch of guys wanting to trade Ricky Dudley for Ricky Williams. I wont ask who should I start in this league. When someone comments that I should have picked a different player, I'll tell them to go change it before anyone else notices. I wont have to ask people to rate my team because they'll do it anyways. I only wrote one paragraph!

 

[GregR_2]

Background

I'm going into my 7th year of fantasy football. I've lost count of how many leagues I've played in. It's over 25 at least, with at least 10 championships and a few 2nd place finishes. After my very first league I have always finished in at least the top half of the league. The leagues have run the gamut in skill level from a couple of yahoo public leagues, to Shark-infested leagues like Omega and Shark Attack.

I've played in redraft and keeper leagues primarly, including the two keeper leagues I commish that are in their 3rd and 7th years respectively. Last year I played in Survivor II where I came in second place.

I've been on the message boards for about 4 years now, and the discussions I've had here have gone a long way towards shaping my fantasy football theories.

FF beliefs

The single greatest factor in FF success is being able to predict player performance more accurately than your opponents. I think the best method of doing this is to project an entire team at a time assuming everyone plays all 16 games, using past performance and my knowledge of what has changed about their situation from the previous year. I believe in letting the projections for the players create the rankings, rather than ranking the players and then putting numbers to them to preserve the order.

At present, my draft preparation after projections is:

1. Get an idea of what the draft will look like, through ADP and knowledge of the other owners if possible.

2. Analyze the draft using VBD and dynamic VBD.

3. Create some graphical representations of the predicted draft by color coding picks by position. Also highlight particular players who are being undervalued by others. Use this to identify runs and areas of value in the draft.

4. Use a method that MT created (write an article already MT, so I can discuss it in the forum!) that looks for extra value created by people deviating from a value-based draft.

5. Begin to chart out some different paths through the draft that will try to hit the value areas I've identified. Get a feel for how decisions in each round will affect my later picks. Sum up the fantasy points for each combination to see what the bottom line effect is on my team. Also plan out a few possible late picks with upside. Mock drafts are also a definite plus.

I seldom use dynamic VBD during the draft anymore. Instead, I use it before hand to understand the implications on a more general scale, only resorting to it during a draft when I'm faced with a situation I need more information on. The result is hopefully that I have an initial strategy for where I'm drafting from, but also will understand the future ramifications of taking advantage of situations I hadn't foreseen. I'd estimate that about half the drafts I've done, I've stuck close to my original strategy.

Survivor Style Drafting

Playing in Survivor II was eye-opening for me, being my first Survivor draft. While I came in second, I still felt what I learned from it will allow me to put together a better team in future Survivor leagues. I'm not going to list all of my strategy here, but I'll hit a few of the high points.

Flattening of the RB curve (and consequences)

When you don't have to set your lineup in advance, the worth of RBBC players increases, which raises the possibility of waiting longer to take your 2nd RB. However, the consequence of doing this is that you'll be spending probably an extra middle round pick (5-7), plus probably an additional late pick/roster spot, on running backs. So there is a definite trade off if you feel there is value to be had in that area of the draft. I think the last tier of RBs in the 2nd round are the ones whose values change enough they may slip a spot or two in the draft order.

There aren't enough QBs to go around

While RB depth improves in this format, QB depth dissipates in a Survivor league. Expect a harsh QB run to start when backups start going. For people picking at the beginning or end of a round, it may be worth reaching slightly for a backup QB, and/or trying to start the run yourself.

WRs can be had late

I think people go after WRs too hard in the middle rounds of the draft, as there are wide receivers left on the board into the very end of the draft who will get significant playing time and opportunities to put up several weeks of decent starting numbers for your team. With the current WR crop coming out of this year's NFL draft, the effect will be magnified even more. Because of this, I think it's worth considering delaying a pick that might have gone to a WR in a redraft on a #4-5 TE or on a top defense, or, you could use an earlier pick on a WR instead of a RB, and use the extra pick here to fortify your RB position.

Conclusion

I feel well prepared for such a Survivor draft after my Survivor II experiences. I expect a very tight draft, that afterwards both staff and MB folks will say you could flip a coin to determine who will win. The differences in the teams won't be much, which is why it's more important than ever to make sure your teams are gleaning every bit of value they can out of their draft.

 

[BigRed]

Let's be real clear. This is not the place to give your commentary on the proceedings. If you want to stand on a chair holding a large red sign that says, "Hey everyone! Look at me!", do it in this thread.If you have anymore questions, send me a PM. If I have to clean this thread up because you feel you just have to be heard, I guarantee you won't be heard anymore.

My league may disband this year, so wtf here's your darkhorse candidate. But I'll keep it pretty brief, wtf w/making a post that's longer than your resume...this is just freakin FF for crying out loud (and now that I've kissed up):- Playing FF since 96/97 (one of those)- Only play in one league/year, but still have 2 titles and mostly successful teams in very competitive leagues to show for it - ie I know what I'm doing. Mostly. - Along with spending more time than I care to admit reading FF forums, have had articles/etc posted on various FF boards (fanex, huddle.com, Kellogg's old site, ffwarroom, even here I think, although it was years ago). Also annual guest analyst on the fanex analysis drafts for a number of years now. And since I'm a writer by profession, I guess someone thinks I are pretty good at least.- Speaking of fanex, their analysis draft follows a format similar to this one, so I'm familiar w/the format...- Creator and avid follower of the DND draft strat, which stands for "Drink N Draft" and beyond the obvious basically means don't micro-analyze every little stat just for the sake of it, turning a fun diversion into something that sucks up way more summer hours than it should. But don't mistake that for someone who just grabs an FF mag and starts throwing darts either. (You want more info on my FF "philosophy," let me know)- Have an unexplainable tendency most years for having a strong passing game and overperforming TEs but a no. 1 draft pick (usually a "stud" RB) that goes down for the count, regardless of my draft strat. Most infamous of these was when T. Davis AND his backup, O Gary, went down a few years back. And remember when Mr Ironman Brett Favre very nearly lost his most-starts-ever string? Right, I drafted him no. 1 that year. I know this probably has no relevance, but I think it's kinda interesting (and frustrating).- Live for the smack talk - good at both giving it out and taking itOK that was even longer than I'd planned If you want to know more about my draft strats or general ideas on FF, fire me a PM or email, np...I'm employed by the gubmint so it's not like I have anything else to do.

 

[rotodcf]

Why I would like to be in the big draft: By Rotodcf1. I work in media. That means I can write with clarity and brevity. It also means I have a different perspective on some players which might make for interesting dicussion or debate.2. I work in media. If my picks stink, you have more fodder for the "people who work in television don't know what they're talking about" argument.3. In 10 years of rotoball, I've broken even or made money every year.4. Thanks for reading this, and good luck with your picks

 

[WisWolvrns]

Hello Unlucky! I can't attest to being a frequent poster and haven't even created an avatar but do frequently read the shark pool and any daily football news. So on the chance you may decide to hand select all but one applicant, and randomly assign the final one, I'll submit my FF resume. One would figure, due to the "luck of the draw" that individual could be a "lucky" guy/gal per se, and luck does have a hand in this game of fantasy football we play... So without further adieu, onto my resume: I've played FF since 1989, still commissionering a very competitive league a dozen friends of mine started back in college. I've played in last year's FBG's survivor league and am currently in 2 redraft and 1 dynasty league, so not many other league distractions. I've also played in a number of other leagues throughout the years, and am a regular in the playoffs and have won my share of leagues, viewing making the playoffs is more skill, but winning in the playoffs has more luck involved. With respect to drafting, I've found from the FBG's survivor league, the schedule is a big factor in the survivor league format. A good mix of players at the various positions is also critical. So drafting a team in a survivor format has alittle extra twist. With respect to predicting stats, I can't say I'm high on all that. Over the years, drafting and player projecting is more an art than statistical analysis for me. I'm not one to get hung up on last year's stats or last 3 years, etc... I see last year as last year. Who wants to draft last season's #1 players for instance? I want to draft this coming year's #1 players. To do that, I take into account all the off-season moves, coaching changes, and a number of other gauges I've used through the years. I'm not a stud-RB theory kind of player, unless the scoring system really over values RBs. I use VBD mostly as a guide to show me where others typically will rank players and thus it allows me to know my opponents and change gears on the fly during the draft. I definitely am not a mirror of the global consensus of player rankings and values, figuring if someone just downloads a cheat sheet or similar and drafts off those rankings, they aren't really drafting "their" team, but are just proxy drafting a team of the person(s) who created the cheat sheet. My writing is probably average, but I am a responsible individual and would spend the time necessary to write up decent pick analysis. I have daily internet access from home and work and would not be the "slowest" drafter. If I am chosen, I will also take a day or two off from work to solidify my player rankings, as they are not all in order this early in the off-season. I will give you the dedication and effort to prepare and draft as good a team I can. If I am not selected, then I will wish your selected owners the best of luck in defeating the FBG's staff! Thank you for your consideration,KevinAdditional references/league web pages are available upon request.

 

[BassNBrew]

If it’s a pitch you want, it’s a pitch you’ll get…Experience: It’s well known that Bass N’ Brew Rules. I’ve been playing fantasy football since the days that our resident Guppy drafted Tony Franklin first overall. I’ve dominated these leagues of mixed talent like it’s nobody’s business and had turned this hobby into a nice tax sheltered second income. I could post the links to the league histories, but they wouldn’t be any more impressive or interesting then the dozens posted prior to or after this. The best measuring stick of my skills would be the NCSharks League, which to my knowledge was the first multi-state in person draft inclusive of a pig pickin’ to evolve in the Shark Pool. Suffice to say that these 12 southern boys would hold their own against any Yankees or PAC 10 patsies despite our questionable geography skills. Each year I’ve won my division and finished second in points. I have not waded into some of the premier leagues originating from this board. Contrary to what my ex-wife says, I do have a life outside of fantasy football. That would involve bird dogs, guns, and roaming the lower 48. Unfortunately I’ve found that managing dozens of teams via single line dial-up at the local Notell Motel in Gravity, Iowa is like using the Sporting News Expert’s Mock as a draft guide. This has naturally gravitated my focus towards Survivor Leagues and other leagues where drafting skill is at a premium. I’ve been in all the Message Board Survivor Leagues and faired better then most. This 12-team league is a walk in the park after participating in a 16-team league. Lastly, I was asked to participate in the FBG.com inaugural message board invitational Survivor league and showed well enough to earn a spot in the year 2.0 version where I unfortunately “joined path for a beer” sooner than expected. Draft Style/Prep: Pretty basic. I take the FBG.com rankings and rearrange them in the correct order. I bucket the players and always try to select from the bucket that I forecast will be empty by my next pick. I hear the enemy has developed a fancy draft program, well my brain is a dynamic draft dominator. I’ve always been cursed in Survivor Leagues to be saddled with a first round pick towards the end of the round (just got #16 in the SSL). Just once I’d like not to have to weigh the pros and cons of Fred Taylor’s groin v. Randy Moss’s driving skills. Despite that disadvantage, I’ve almost always fielded a contender. I will study the format of this contest and scoring system to develop roster and bye week strategies that should give me a leg up. Additionally, I will study the tendencies of my competition and use that to my advantage. I won’t draft any Jets.Best Call in 2003: Kicking off the Panther Nation bandwagon back in the beginning of the season (actually during the pre-season, but PWI and taking the Skins to the woodshed lend themselves to a deleted thread). I mean really, was there ever any doubt? Those Panther players made some nice contributions in this format at some bargain basement prices.Worst Call in 2003: Trying to convince everyone that Kordell would be the king of garbage time as the Bears played from 3 touchdowns behind. Do I get credit for getting the cause correct even if I missed the effect?Writing Style: My past write-ups are available in the achieves. I tend to focus more on draft strategy, what I was thinking at the time, and what I was anticipating happening next. A few player projections and thoughts are nice, but anything I have to add surely will have been covered in the Player Spotlight series. I tend to find myself amusing and funny, but I’m sure guys like Capella don’t concur.You have some tough decisions to make Unlucky. I would enjoy the challenge and competitiveness of this contest and would work very hard on my preparation. I appreciate those who mentioned my worthiness in the original thread. Now with all this said, if I end up being one of the last contenders in your selection process, please select someone else who hasn’t previously had an opportunity to participate in one of the FBG.com promotional drafts. All other things being equal, some new people deserve a chance to show their various skills. Joesph, Couch Potato, TommyGunz, anyone else from last year's Survivor 2 draft, and Twilight just to name a few deserve a hard look. Heck, I’d be happy to carry the water bucket and fill the Gatorade cups, although you would have to restrain me from spitting water at the enemy ranks.

 

[bagger]

Survivor Fantasy Football Experience

I was invited to play in the 2003 Survivor II League by fbg.com. This experience is vital to this competition. People listing experience in regular fantasy football leagues don't understand that experience is irrelevant in terms of understanding the specific strategy to the survivor format. There are no trades. There are no free agent pickups to cover your ### in bye weeks. You have to draft knowing that is your team for the entire season. This is so different from typical fantasy leagues, if people don't understand that, they are already behind the 8-ball in this type of competition.

My picks in that league from last year are listed here, along with my corresponding commentary that will be required again for this competition. My commentary discusses the rationale behind each pick.

Given the tweaked scoring parameters in this league you can't just take your typical rankings and slot them in here. You have to understand the relative value of players under this specific scoring system, and do so in a very short timeframe as the draft moves fast. If you are the kind of person who targets players in certain rounds you will be done as I will guarantee not only will your first choice be taken, but your 2nd or 3rd as well. The competition in Survivor II was fierce, and this competition should be no different. Unlucky, if you put someone into this competition who is not experienced in Survivor you will regret it when they freeze up and draft multiple starting caliber players with the same by week, or do not draft their star players' backups to mitigate injury risk to your team.

Draft Theories / Rankings Preparation

I am big on DVBD and cross-referencing it with ADP to maximize value. I prepare all my own projections and ensure the rankings are relatively close to historical points scored at that position rank. I could go on and on about it, but it would just be easier to show you. This is the app that I created to project players, calculate value dynamically on the fly in drafts, and track teams' draft picks. So while the other "sharks" are begging the staff for their cute little applications to be finished, I am ready and waiting to draft dependent on nobody but myself. There are enough staff clones in the Shark Pool...you don't need any on your team in this competition.

Why Me?

Unlucky, you got to ask yourself a very important question. Do you want to give your team the best shot at winning, or just want to try to win feeling squeaky clean? If it's the latter, then take posters that have been around the last 8 months, only posting in the Shark Pool whining about collusion, thinking VBD is a verbatim cheatsheet, and crying about how the weekly rankings aren't published yet since they have no idea who to start on their own. But will you really feel good about yourself picking all these brown nosing goody two shoes when 8 staff members are in the final 8? In order to beat the staff, you got to get a little dirty. And I am as dirty as they come. Many in the Shark Pool don't like me. They can get over it. I'm the best chance you got. I'm not here for respect, or to win this league for all of the guppies who couldn't get into the competition, or to prove that I am a good fantasy football player.

I am your hired gun from the FFA and I am here for the cash. And when I win I'll crawl back into whatever spider hole I came from in the FFA and you can all throw a parade for yourselves in the Shark Pool celebrating how the message board beat the staff.

The decision is yours.

:11:

 

[Gambler]

The message board can't lose this because if the mods win,they're expected to. If the MB wins,many props. The mods actually have no chance here. Unlucky, If it was me placing the challenge,I'd pick 11 obscure FBG's and really rub it in. NO,I'm not interested.

 

[Musesboy]

Hi Unlucky,

I doubt very much if anyone knows me from these boards because I tend to read posts without responding very often.

It may not be fair on more frequent posters if I am chosen over them?

I love FF and would put maximum effort into representing the MB if chosen.

Two of my articles were published by FBG last year...

Tampa Alternative

Drafting A Value Kicker

I write for DraftZone

Oh, and I am from England but don't hold it against me

Steve

 

[Juicecore]

I'll recomend Footballman6969 ... He has been in FF for years, and always does well in any league he is in ... He is an active poster and can be found in all the survivor leagues from the last few years - he either won or came close to winning a couple of them.... The dude lives and breathes FF ...

 

[Brave Sir Robin]

Survivor formats are unique. Particularly when there are no trades or FA moves. I started my local league so long ago (Montana was a rookie) and have been the driving force behind modifying rules and keeping it interesting. That said, survivor leagues rely a great deal on luck (surviving the bad weeks) and late round research. It is this latter aspect where I’ll distinguish myself from the rest of the pack. Where I have been the most fortunate is in picking good WRs late. Quincy Morgan two years ago and D. Boston before that. I picked up Holt in the early 4th last year to the guffaws of all in attendance. I took T. Wilkins as my last pick three years ago and well…even at that it was a waste. I was tardy in picking up C. Johnson when he started to get hot but the owner dealt him to me thinking “his streak was over.”I don’t mind tipping a little of my hand here and say there’d have to be a tremendous reason for me to draft anything other than RB-RB. Because of my success with WR choices, I might even go RB-RB-RB but will have to see if “my guy” is there at WR in the third. Another tip of my hand is feeling that C. Dillon is currently undervalued in most survivor mocks.If my QB is not where I think he should go, I’ll have several QBBC combos and trips at hand.My drafting style is a hybrid between VBD and market oriented value. I want the guys I want and the view of others is only mildly interesting given that trades are not allowed. I use the market value only to determine whether I can get the guy later. I will either win or lose using my projections allowing Lady Luck the best and most opportunities to kiss me.*****A Clever and Cunning Plan*****How about you use Xperts to see us draft? After you pick some of your guys, allow 12 others on the bubble to draft against each other in a quicky draft. Evaluate the top # teams and pick from there or ask questions from that.Brilliance like this had gotta earn a spot. Do you need your car washed or something?

 

[Bird]

I have been around since this joint opened in May of 2001. I remember when this board was only filled with thoughtful, respectful debate and the most antagonizing poster was AnOmelet(a knife-blade....did you know that?)

I've been playing this game for 11 years and have done my own projections for the last five. This year's initial projections are complete and I have some definite players who I feel will outperform their draft slot.

At QB I like Trent Green. He's improved each year in a very QB-friendly system. Priest isn't rushing for 27 TDs this year and Trent will get a few more red zone TDs. Add that to his 4000+ yards passing and you have Manning-like numbers drafted 3-4 rounds later.

At RB I like Brian Westbrook. He is the NEW Tiki Barber on a better offensive team.(I'm a Giants fan who dislikes Philly so you know that statement pains me to admit.) Buckhalter will fumble(1 fumble dropped per 46 touches in his career)his way into the doghouse and Westbrook will get the majority of the RB action for the NFC East winning Eagles.

At WR I like Jerry Porter. Have you seen how EASY Oakland's schedule is against the pass? Norv will have that team chucking the ball downfield early and often. Gannon and Porter formed a nice chemistry towards the end of the 2002 season. I expect them to pick it up again this year and vault this 6-7th round selection into the Top 12 among wide receivers.

As for the Survivor format, you're best finding players who outperform where they are drafted(duh!) but it is vital not to make picks that totally whiff. Consistency is important. You don't need home-runs but you do need a string of exta base hits.

Good luck making your selections pisano. To choose me is to choose a friend of ours.

Chris

 

[RustyFA]

I will win this league. Hands down.Experience-Like almost every applicant I have won multiple championships. I have beaten guppies and sharks. I commish one local league. I am in two other local leagues and three other leagues on the internet. I was among the leading posters on the Fantasy Adavantage board when FBGs took over. Thus the FA at the end of my name. I am active in the FFA and try to have quality over quantity in the Shark Pool. Rankings-I subscribe loosely to VBD. I feel that VBD is a good tool to start from but I deviate widely from it when I draft. After the playoffs I write a team summary for every team in the NFL. Then I add to it accounting for the draft and free agency. I look for situations where players will have the chance to contribute without being a board favorite. By following the offseason and draft on my own I feel that I find the late round sleepers that too many miss. Before the draft I spend the time to write down my positional analysis and final rankings in a notebook. I am a list freak. I love making them and going by them. My final rankings are not in concrete. When I have a number of players who are ranked evenly I look to see how many of that position are gone. Has everyone satisfied their needs or will they need to take such player. After that I go with my gut for BPA in the best situation.Drafting strategy-So many survivor drafters make the critical mistake of going for the big reward/big bust picks early in drafts. Examples of these picks are Shaun Alexander, the Denver RB, David Boston, Traivs Henry, and Aaron Brooks. I feel that this is an especially big mistake in this format. Early to mid round picks should be the guys that you can trust to have good weeks. After round 6 is when the real fun starts as people start having much different rankings. After week 4 you get two weeks to prove your team. By having the best team you will survive if you have a down week because your players will not have the low lows and will bounce back. The RB drafting method is sound because of the lack of sure things. During a survivor draft you are allowed more flexibility to take a WR or QB early because more than likely you can find a combnation of RBs to make up for passing on a second or third level guy to take an elite player at another position. The one position you have to take a stud at is TE. With 2 points for receptions you are done if you don't get a great one. Drafting is all about finace. Hedge your investments so that if one doesn't pay off you have enough resources to carry on. It is a simple strategy that will win leagues every year. Writing sample-After drafting I will turn in writeups like the ones I enjoy reading. In-depth reports about who I was considering, why I selected the player I did, what led me to pass on certain players, and if that strategy paid off.-The early run on WRs really susprised me. More RBs were available than I thought would be and it made my decision very hard. I ended up selecting Duante Culpepper in the second round. It was a tough decision but in the end I decided to take him over Stephen Davis, Torry Holt, Peyton Manning, and Michael Vick. Having taken Jaml Lewis, who fell way too far IMO, in the 1st round I had to pass on Manning because of bye weeks. Culpepper is the #1 QB in my rankings and will consistently put up numbers that will allow me to move on. It also allows me to wait on taking a backup QB longer than I usually would in a survivor format. I prefer to take safe bets like Manning over Culpepper but bye weeks will kill you if you don't pay attention. Davis is losing PT to Foster and may have lost a step. His injury concerns from last year made me back off even though I try to go RB-RB in drafts. I don't beleive in taking a WR early in a survivor format and I have had Holt underperform on my teams for years before last year. With Rudi Johnson, Dominick Davis, Corey Dillon, Travis Henry, Brian Westbrook, Kevin Jones, Tiki Barber, and Kevan Barlow still on the board I am hoping that I will have a choice of two of these in 17 picks. With a point for receptions I hope that a RB with good hands falls to me! With Lewis and Culpepper I have the makings for huge numbers every week. The draft is going very well for me and I hope it continues where I can get a good RB in round 3 and a stellar TE in round 4. I hope this allows me to be selected. I will be on a fishing trip until June 7th but i sounded like that date was very loose. Thanks

 

[gallamann]

I have been playing for over 15 years, its a well known fact that FFL's are the reason I'm not a multi-millionaire.Prepare every single day except when on vacation. For example my lurking today has yielded a potential farm team candiate. I firmly believe this is what seperates average players from great players.Drafts are fluid and strategy changes from pick to pick, being flexible is key todrafting. Would love the opportunity to write up analysis of my picks.In short I'd like to be your darkhorse, the guy nobody really knows who enables the message board team to WIN!

 

[grouse]

Grouse Application: ADDENDUMUnlucky, I know I'm only supposed to post once in this thread. And I have no clue if I am even on your radar screen for a short list of consideration.However, I am simply posting to update you on my personal situation as mentioned in my app.My wife (my hero) gave birth to our second son, Jasper, last night at 2:14am. 7 pounds, 12 ounces. Everyone is healthy, happy and feeling great. Due to the early arrival, I will be available without complication for the Survivor draft if called upon.Best of luck with your big decision. Whomever you choose, I look forward to supporting unconditionally.I wish I could dish out cigars to all in the Shark Pool.Regards,Grouse.

 

[ILuvHippyChix]

I'm not going to apply for myself, but I want to advise with 2 comments.- This is not American IdolIf we learn anything from that show, it is that the popular vote is often not the correct choice talent wise. This thread was for applicants, and anyone promoting a person other than themself, should be ignored. This isn't a prom queen vote.- Call for new bloodSomeone else mentioned this earlier, and I second. I'd like to see new opinions vs. seeing the return of many of those who did FBG survivor last year. We already have opinions on how they think and pick - I'd rather get another perspective than a repeat of the same guys.Thanks for the time.

 

[Tick]

I've been on the message boards since they started, though I stayed in the Assistant Coach forum for all of the Old Yeller days, rarely heading over to the Shark Pool. I've been coming to FBG since it was cheatsheets.net - I think 1999 or 2000 was when I found it and I was instantly hooked by the VBD article.I've been active in the Shark Pool for two years now, though I tend to do a lot more reading than writing (a little over 300 posts in the SP). When I do post, it's generally on strategy rather than on breaking news. Some of the best threads I can remember were the DVBD threads last year, which conveniently fell right when I was doing some preparation for my work-league draft. My credentials... over the past two seasons, I've played in seven redraft leagues. I made the Super Bowl in all seven, winning two, and was top-2 in points in six of them. I also joined a Zealots dynasty league beginning this year.(note that in 2001 I lost the Toilet Bowl in my work league - these past two years aren't completely indicative).I would say that my success in the past two years stems from my drafting, not my free agency moves or trades. My work league, in particular, is very restrictive on free agency pickups (one per week, priority based on record) and not very trade-friendly, and I rarely get much help there. The major factor in my successful drafts has been picking a couple of key players I think will outperform their draft positions and targeting them. Two years ago it was Trent Green and Deuce McAllister. Last year it was Chad Johnson, Keyshawn, and Ahman Green (two of three is good enough).I have never participated in a Survivor draft, though I'm in the SSL2 that's drafting now. I don't think anything I learn in that draft will be applicable, however, since the fact that it's a 16-team league really affects the draft dynamics in my opinion.My drafting strategy is very conservative; I don't use strict VBD or even DVBD. I did a ton of research last year on DVBD and did a lot of mocks and simulations of my work draft, but the conclusion I came to was that DVBD didn't fit my needs perfectly, partly because of the dilemma of how much to discount the value of backup players, which I was never able to resolve to my satisfaction. The strategy I use is more along the lines of the Perfect Draft articles. I look at the depth and dropoffs at each position and come up with some rules for myself that are tailored to my draft position. For an example, last season in my work league (14 teams, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 Flex) I had picks 14, 15, and 29, so there wasn't much point in agonizing over LT vs. Ricky. My rules:14 and 15: Pick Edge and Green if available. Pick Moss/Harrison/Owens if necessary.29: If I have two RBs, pick Horn/Holt/Ward. If I have RB/WR, pick any remaining top-19 RB (where I saw the cutoff). If they're gone, pick Culpepper/Manning. If they're gone, go best-available WR.I had branching rules for myself extending out to the seventh round. Of course unexpected events occur during a draft, and in this case, I got Edge and Green, and when pick 29 came around, William Green was still available. I had given a lot of thought to the decision between Green and Horn in my draft preparation, so I was able to make my decision quickly and confidently (Horn). When I say that I draft conservatively, I mean that despite using my own rankings and setting up my rules for my draft, I often end up ranking players in roughly the same order as ADP. I always have a couple of players to target, but I don't take them until the last possible moment. In the end, it almost always ends up that I've gone RB-RB-WR-WR in drafts, though that's not my goal going in.My writing style is a bit dry. I'll throw in statistics often and rarely go for the trash talk jab or pun, but I know my stuff and can convey it easily.The one intangible I'd bring is that I'm an Assistant Coach guy. I've got over 200 posts in the Asst. Coach forum helping others make decisions in keepers, dynasties, redrafts, trades, waivers, etc. I always think that someday I'll get paid back for the help I've given out there, and I'm hoping this is the time.

 

[pigskinliquors]

Hi Unlucky,

My application follows:

Personal Info

I'm a 37 year old College Professor at a Tier 1 research institute, with a two-thirds reasearch appointment (one third teaching). I am married (to a major hotty!) and have the most beautiful 2 and a half year old daughter on the planet. My passions are statistics and football (not sure what order, as they both float my boat!); which has led me to an obsessive quest for better understanding how to predict player performance based on statistical analysis. I am a Dolphin, Texan and Bear fan (I've lived in each region), and my favorite statistical tools (hobbys!) are multiple regression and structural equation modeling.

Experience

I have been an Avid Fantasy Football Freak for the past 4 years (= I now live, eat and breathe fantasy 365 days a year), and have played for a total of 9 years. Last year I was extremely lucky (and skilled) and won 3 of 5 leagues played (2 of these against so-called Sharks, the other an office league). An example of my dominance in one league can be found here:

Liquors dominating a League!

While I am not an overly active poster on the site, I believe I consistently add knowledge to the board with each post, and do not pad posts by spitting out drivel.

Education

I hold a Ph.D., Masters degree and B.S. My Ph.D. included an emphasis in statistical analyses (more specifically, Structural Equation Modeling). My strength in statistical analyses has consistently given me an advantage in fantasy football. I was also a Scholar Athlete during my undergraduate degree and was the quarterback of my H.S. football team (= I know the game!).

Writing Abilities

I write for a living. In the past five years, I have published more than 20 articles in Tier 1 academic journals, have published two book chapters, have and am currently Editing two text books. I have contributed to the board as a free-lance writer (see link below), and take great pride in teaching the only writing intensive class offered in our dept. (writing intensive is a label given by the university, for classes which assist in developing UG's writing abilities, beyond requirements).

QB Duos

Research Abilities

I have won two national, and one international award for my research abilities and serve on the Editorial Board for three tier 1 research journals. I teach Graduate Level (both Masters and Ph.D.) statistics and research methods, and LOVE applying my skills to fantasy football analyses.

Drafting Philosophy

The format of the league dictates my philosophy. Survivor Leagues require deeper analysis of how combinations of players work = in-depth schedule/match-up analysis to determine who the best back-ups are for your starters so that you avoid down weeks. A small example of how I do this is included in the freelance article shown above (Qb Duos). I holistically believe in VBD, but understand the importance of not overloading one position while neglecting others in a Surivivor Format (Redraft or Dynasty = you can trade depth away to compensate, as your depth = someone else has weaknesses that must be filled!). I also believe that risks must be taken in order to win = I NEVER play just to compete = I play to win.

Bottom-line

I will work my tail off to be THE SURVIVOR! Classes finished here last week (= much more free-time!), and my devotion to the game is yours.

References

If you would like confirmation of any statements above, I can forward you a copy of my curriculum vita (just shoot me a message, and it is yours!).

Best of luck, with what will inevitably be a very difficult list to compile!

Cheers,

~Pigskinliquor

 

[dallas428b]

2002: MBSL I dallas428 - Holy Scheinkes - Twilight - BassNBrew - JBase

2003: MBSLI Twilight -dallas428- Atomic Punk - AhrnCity - Fighting Wombat

I've finished 1st and 2nd in the MBSL leagues the past 2 years...I also have been in a home league for 10+ years...several online dynasty leagues and multiple online redraft leagues...im a member of the Zealots(5) and have aslo participated in many survivor drafts at expertleagues.

I have several stategies for survivor leagues and most have already been talked about. My writing skills arnt the best but I can give a summary of why I took a certain player and what my reasons behind it are. I mostly lurk on the boards unless I have a strong opinion on something.

I want to be involved with this contest mainly because im here all the time lurking and figured why not take a chance on the free stuff being offered. Im in it for the prizes.

You have some tough decisions Unlucky...I think i would help this team you are assembling but I also see many others that are more then qualified.