Are We All Dead Wrong on Spiller? (1 Viewer)

[sholditch]

I loved this kid in college and like most have gotten down on his prospects for the 2010 season, but are we all wrong on this one?

Consider that:

The Bills know they don't have the pieces to win this year.

The Bills know that Marshawn isn't the answer and want to move on.

The Bills know that Fred Jackson is at best a caretaker at RB while they rebuild.

The Bills know that Spiller is the future offensive focal point, or at least hope he is.

The Bills know their passing game is not their strength.

Also

Jackson is a career backup and on the wrong side of 30

Lynch has clearly lost what little edge he had

Who's to say the Bills don't go ahead and get the future of their offense as much experience thus year as they can? If that happens Spiller could see 250+ carries, and that's assuming he doesn't just win the job outright.

 

[Ranger1]

Jackson is a career backup and on the wrong side of 30

Jackson <30 - you're saying RBs should be over 30? I think Jackson has proven to be a capable starter, so I wouldn't write him off just yet. But I do agree that, as bad as the Bills should be this year, there's really no reason for them *not* to throw Spiller into the fire. Guess it depends on his blocking skills....

 

[CA_7]

So if the Bills aren't going to be a contender why would they give an undersized rookie RB a full workload, thus shortening the longevity of their future franchise RB?

 

[MAC_32]

Of course there's a chance his doubters are wrong. I think there's a chance he could be Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Darren McFadden, or Reggie Bush. Meaning, there's a small chance he'll be great, a small chance he sucks, and a good chance he is inconsistently good. Based on what I'm seeing, even though I am not high on Spiller's talent, I really like his re draft value and may take some stabs at him in some leagues because his upside is that high and his price is that low. Still not touching him in dyno's though, not where he's going anyway.

 

[sholditch]

To get him acclimated as quickly as possible would be one reason. I'm not saying Jackson won't get work but I don't think he factors into their longterm plans at all, and the coming draft class gives plenty of reason to seriously consider tanking. Lots of unreal WR and QB prospects, even though they really need o-line.

My bad on Jackson, I had heard he was turning 30 this year.

 

[Garts]

Of course there's a chance his doubters are wrong. I think there's a chance he could be Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Darren McFadden, or Reggie Bush. Meaning, there's a small chance he'll be great, a small chance he sucks, and a good chance he is inconsistently good. Based on what I'm seeing, even though I am not high on Spiller's talent, I really like his re draft value and may take some stabs at him in some leagues because his upside is that high and his price is that low. Still not touching him in dyno's though, not where he's going anyway.

Best over Spiller for me at #3 and the majority I think in rook drafts.Bryant and Mathews gor 1 or 2.Some even take Ben Tate at #4 instead of Spiller from what i have seen.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I'm not sure if he's going to have 250 carries, but I do think he's got a chance to be a monster in PPR leagues.

http://footballguys.com/10stuart_players_cjspiller.php

 

[crush304]

if he's really good, jackson and lynch won't be a problem, if he's not really good, who cares anyway

 

[gianmarco]

Who's this "we all" you're referring to?

 

[Lash]

don't know about "We all" cause I am high on Spiller in PPR

and Tate over Spiller is a reach IMO, maybe Hardesty I could see

 

[Drink G2]

While I agree many people may be wrong about him being a bust, I don't agree with your theory behind it. If the Bills plan on sucking and building for the future you don't start with a RB. They have the shortest shelf life of any player I think, i haven't looked at the stats in comparison but I know the RB shelf life is short. So in your theory they should of drafted a WR where they did Spiller because they usually don't "get it" till there 3rd season.

 

[SproutDaddy]

don't know about "We all" cause I am high on Spiller in PPRand Tate over Spiller is a reach IMO, maybe Hardesty I could see

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I think spiller is going to be the best of the 2010 class.

 

[FUBAR]

I can't be wrong on him as I haven't decided what I think

 

[BigTex]

I think spiller is going to be the best of the 2010 class.

Many on this board said he wouldn't be drafted in the top ten..............lol! He's a stud, he's done it on EVERY level so far.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

I think spiller is going to be the best of the 2010 class.

Many on this board said he wouldn't be drafted in the top ten..............lol! He's a stud, he's done it on EVERY level so far.

:badposting:

 

[sholditch]

I'm only talking redraft and his ADP in non-ppr is RB29. That was Jacobs last year who finished with 835 and 5 and 184 and 1. It's only RB26 in ppr.

After looking at Jackson's game log it's clear that he has the ability to blow up in a given game, but he lacked consistency last year, putting up several complete dud performances (8/11 30 yds 2.3 ypc v CLE, 8/18 52 yds 3.5 @NYJ, 9/1 28 yds 3.1 v HOU, 12/3 31 yds 2.4 v NYJ, 12/27 39 yds 3.0 @ ATL). All of those games were losses except for the game at New York.

Just thinking that they might view Jackson's inconsistency as a problem they need to overcome and establishing a consistent running game would be a good goal for them to have. I doubt wear and tear will keep them from playing with their new toy.

I think the only thing that keeps Spiller off the field for the majority of touches this year is going to be himself. IF he shows Gailey and the Bills enough in camp he should start the season as their starter and stay on the field for third down work as well.

 

[Avery]

I'm only talking redraft and his ADP in non-ppr is RB29. That was Jacobs last year who finished with 835 and 5 and 184 and 1. It's only RB26 in ppr. After looking at Jackson's game log it's clear that he has the ability to blow up in a given game, but he lacked consistency last year, putting up several complete dud performances (8/11 30 yds 2.3 ypc v CLE, 8/18 52 yds 3.5 @NYJ, 9/1 28 yds 3.1 v HOU, 12/3 31 yds 2.4 v NYJ, 12/27 39 yds 3.0 @ ATL). All of those games were losses except for the game at New York.Just thinking that they might view Jackson's inconsistency as a problem they need to overcome and establishing a consistent running game would be a good goal for them to have. I doubt wear and tear will keep them from playing with their new toy.I think the only thing that keeps Spiller off the field for the majority of touches this year is going to be himself. IF he shows Gailey and the Bills enough in camp he should start the season as their starter and stay on the field for third down work as well.

In terms of redraft, I think the big fear is how bad the rest of the Bills team is.Spiller just has a lot more to overcome, besides the depth chart, than the other top talent in the rookie RB class.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I think spiller is going to be the best of the 2010 class.

Many on this board said he wouldn't be drafted in the top ten..............lol! He's a stud, he's done it on EVERY level so far.

:badposting:

says the guy with the Benson is awesome user name

 

[DoctorFantasy]

He is not in a great situation, but my opinion right now is that he represents good value in redrafts based on his current ADP. I am hoping things stay quiet and I can nab him......maybe as a 3rd or 4th RB and hope he performs at least as a low-end #2.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

:badposting:

says the guy with the Benson is awesome user name

Says the guy who can't read

 

[massraider]

I think spiller is going to be the best of the 2010 class.

Many on this board said he wouldn't be drafted in the top ten..............lol! He's a stud, he's done it on EVERY level so far.

:badposting:

says the guy with the Benson is awesome user name

Well, I'd kinda like to know what 'every level' means. Are we including Midgets, Pee-Wee, Pop Warner, high school, intramural flag........

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I think spiller is going to be the best of the 2010 class.

Many on this board said he wouldn't be drafted in the top ten..............lol! He's a stud, he's done it on EVERY level so far.

:badposting:

says the guy with the Benson is awesome user name

Well, I'd kinda like to know what 'every level' means. Are we including Midgets, Pee-Wee, Pop Warner, high school, intramural flag........

I thought he was bad posting the good posting, Kinda unclear. I think Spiller is uber-talented and even though Buff looks messy the cream rises

 

[Avery]

I thought he was bad posting the good posting, Kinda unclear. I think Spiller is uber-talented and even though Buff looks messy the cream rises

Tell that to Lee Evans.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I thought he was bad posting the good posting, Kinda unclear. I think Spiller is uber-talented and even though Buff looks messy the cream rises

Tell that to Lee Evans.

Apples to oranges.IMO Spiller will be closer to how LT and CJ have faired on very poor teams, good rbs just perform, they do. Now before you freak out im not saying he will be near that level of production, but Spiller IMO has the goods.

 

[Avery]

I thought he was bad posting the good posting, Kinda unclear. I think Spiller is uber-talented and even though Buff looks messy the cream rises

Tell that to Lee Evans.

Apples to oranges.IMO Spiller will be closer to how LT and CJ have faired on very poor teams, good rbs just perform, they do. Now before you freak out im not saying he will be near that level of production, but Spiller IMO has the goods.

In truth I don't really disagree and believe in talent (usually) eventually showing through.Just thought it was ironic that the poster boy for wasted talent on a piss poor team in today's NFL happens to play on the Bills.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

I thought he was bad posting the good posting, Kinda unclear. I think Spiller is uber-talented and even though Buff looks messy the cream rises

Tell that to Lee Evans.

Apples to oranges.IMO Spiller will be closer to how LT and CJ have faired on very poor teams, good rbs just perform, they do. Now before you freak out im not saying he will be near that level of production, but Spiller IMO has the goods.

Spiller will be a good part time RB. He can run fast...bounce outside...catch...and kick return. Spiller doesn't have the size and power of Mathews or the instincts, vision, creativity of Best.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I thought he was bad posting the good posting, Kinda unclear. I think Spiller is uber-talented and even though Buff looks messy the cream rises

Tell that to Lee Evans.

Apples to oranges.IMO Spiller will be closer to how LT and CJ have faired on very poor teams, good rbs just perform, they do. Now before you freak out im not saying he will be near that level of production, but Spiller IMO has the goods.

Spiller will be a good part time RB. He can run fast...bounce outside...catch...and kick return. Spiller doesn't have the size and power of Mathews or the instincts, vision, creativity of Best.

Spiller and Best both are on horrible teams and I think most NFL teams had Spiller in front of Best at draf time.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

I thought he was bad posting the good posting, Kinda unclear. I think Spiller is uber-talented and even though Buff looks messy the cream rises

Tell that to Lee Evans.

Apples to oranges.IMO Spiller will be closer to how LT and CJ have faired on very poor teams, good rbs just perform, they do. Now before you freak out im not saying he will be near that level of production, but Spiller IMO has the goods.

Spiller will be a good part time RB. He can run fast...bounce outside...catch...and kick return. Spiller doesn't have the size and power of Mathews or the instincts, vision, creativity of Best.

Spiller and Best both are on horrible teams and I think most NFL teams had Spiller in front of Best at draf time.

Spiller's best season was his freshman season...he averaged 7.3 a carry. His career average in college was 5.6.Best's career average is 7.3 a carry.5.6 or 7.3.....what would you rather have?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Spiller's best season was his freshman season...he averaged 7.3 a carry. His career average in college was 5.6.Best's career average is 7.3 a carry.5.6 or 7.3.....what would you rather have?

link to where college ypc = nfl ypc?

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Spiller's best season was his freshman season...he averaged 7.3 a carry. His career average in college was 5.6.Best's career average is 7.3 a carry.5.6 or 7.3.....what would you rather have?

link to where college ypc = nfl ypc?

Link to where a higher pick in the NFL first round is better production in the NFL to a later one?(DHB to Nicks/Maclin/Crabtree/Britt/etc).Best slipped due to injuries....Spiller wishes he was on the same level of RB that Jahvid Best represents.

 

[Tau837]

I don't think "we all" makes sense, because expectations vary widely on Spiller. I'm not as high on him as many others, as discussed in other threads. For purposes of this thread, I'll simply say that I think that those who are high on him are generally expecting more touches in his rookie year than I think he'll get. I also think one reason for that is that many do not account for him returning kicks/punts, which will likely hold down his touches from scrimmage somewhat.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Spiller's best season was his freshman season...he averaged 7.3 a carry. His career average in college was 5.6.Best's career average is 7.3 a carry.5.6 or 7.3.....what would you rather have?

link to where college ypc = nfl ypc?

Link to where a higher pick in the NFL first round is better production in the NFL to a later one?(DHB to Nicks/Maclin/Crabtree/Britt/etc).Best slipped due to injuries....Spiller wishes he was on the same level of RB that Jahvid Best represents.

OK so I get it that you think Best> spiller. I think he has the tools to be sucessful. And you really used an Al davis pick to make a point? or you saying lions FO>>Bills FO?

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

OK so I get it that you think Best> spiller. I think he has the tools to be sucessful. And you really used an Al davis pick to make a point? or you saying lions FO>>Bills FO?

Spiller is my RB3. U think he has the tools to be successful...but what is the your definition? I think he will be a good....change of pace...pass catching...return player. Since the Raiders was an issue with you....would you rather me use the Reggie Bush vs DeAngelo Williams comparison?I am saying....that just because he was drafted before Best....doesn't mean Spiller will be more successful...which was your point....right?

 

[RJS113]

I thought he was bad posting the good posting, Kinda unclear. I think Spiller is uber-talented and even though Buff looks messy the cream rises

Tell that to Lee Evans.

Apples to oranges.IMO Spiller will be closer to how LT and CJ have faired on very poor teams, good rbs just perform, they do. Now before you freak out im not saying he will be near that level of production, but Spiller IMO has the goods.

Spiller will be a good part time RB. He can run fast...bounce outside...catch...and kick return. Spiller doesn't have the size and power of Mathews or the instincts, vision, creativity of Best.

Spiller and Best both are on horrible teams and I think most NFL teams had Spiller in front of Best at draf time.

The Lions have a young QB that has the potential to be great, and one of the best WRs in football. The Lions have the potential to be a very good offense. The Bills, well.... don't.

 

[moderated]

Spiller's best season was his freshman season...he averaged 7.3 a carry. His career average in college was 5.6.Best's career average is 7.3 a carry.5.6 or 7.3.....what would you rather have?

link to where college ypc = nfl ypc?

Link to where a higher pick in the NFL first round is better production in the NFL to a later one?(DHB to Nicks/Maclin/Crabtree/Britt/etc).Best slipped due to injuries....Spiller wishes he was on the same level of RB that Jahvid Best represents.

It's a proven fact that a top 10 pick is more likely to succeed then a later 1st round pick on average.Definitely no sure thing but the odds are with spiller based on historic data.

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

I think spiller is going to be the best of the 2010 class.

When? Overall or this year? I don't see him being close for a couple years fantasy wise but he may be the best back in the draft.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Spiller's best season was his freshman season...he averaged 7.3 a carry. His career average in college was 5.6.Best's career average is 7.3 a carry.5.6 or 7.3.....what would you rather have?

link to where college ypc = nfl ypc?

Link to where a higher pick in the NFL first round is better production in the NFL to a later one?(DHB to Nicks/Maclin/Crabtree/Britt/etc).Best slipped due to injuries....Spiller wishes he was on the same level of RB that Jahvid Best represents.

It's a proven fact that a top 10 pick is more likely to succeed then a later 1st round pick on average.Definitely no sure thing but the odds are with spiller based on historic data.

Very cute Mod,If we were comparing him to say...James Starks...then yes it would be the case.

 

[JPeso]

Who's this "we all" you're referring to?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I think spiller is going to be the best of the 2010 class.

When? Overall or this year? I don't see him being close for a couple years fantasy wise but he may be the best back in the draft.

Yes from a dynasty perspective I certainly like spiller the best of this class.

 

[BigTex]

I think spiller is going to be the best of the 2010 class.

Many on this board said he wouldn't be drafted in the top ten..............lol! He's a stud, he's done it on EVERY level so far.

:badposting:

You would say that lol!

 

[BigTex]

I don't think "we all" makes sense, because expectations vary widely on Spiller. I'm not as high on him as many others, as discussed in other threads. For purposes of this thread, I'll simply say that I think that those who are high on him are generally expecting more touches in his rookie year than I think he'll get. I also think one reason for that is that many do not account for him returning kicks/punts, which will likely hold down his touches from scrimmage somewhat.

I'm looking at years 2/3 and beyond. I'm not expecting much this year even-though he's a top ten draft pick and the first running back taken.

 

[BigTex]

Spiller's best season was his freshman season...he averaged 7.3 a carry. His career average in college was 5.6.Best's career average is 7.3 a carry.5.6 or 7.3.....what would you rather have?

link to where college ypc = nfl ypc?

Link to where a higher pick in the NFL first round is better production in the NFL to a later one?(DHB to Nicks/Maclin/Crabtree/Britt/etc).Best slipped due to injuries....Spiller wishes he was on the same level of RB that Jahvid Best represents.

It's a proven fact that a top 10 pick is more likely to succeed then a later 1st round pick on average.Definitely no sure thing but the odds are with spiller based on historic data.

Can't argue with historical data.

 

[Tau837]

I don't think "we all" makes sense, because expectations vary widely on Spiller. I'm not as high on him as many others, as discussed in other threads. For purposes of this thread, I'll simply say that I think that those who are high on him are generally expecting more touches in his rookie year than I think he'll get. I also think one reason for that is that many do not account for him returning kicks/punts, which will likely hold down his touches from scrimmage somewhat.

I'm looking at years 2/3 and beyond. I'm not expecting much this year even-though he's a top ten draft pick and the first running back taken.

The OP is about the 2010 season, so that is where my post is focused. I agree his prospects beyond his rookie year are probably better, though I'm still not as high on him beyond this year as many others.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

I think spiller is going to be the best of the 2010 class.

Many on this board said he wouldn't be drafted in the top ten..............lol! He's a stud, he's done it on EVERY level so far.

:badposting:

You would say that lol!

Hahaha....thought you would like it.

 

[LawFitz]

In leagues that reward return yards, Spiller is going to be a beast from the get go. He is this year's Percy Harvin... The no respect all everything player that will score points in multiple ways for your team. Another good comp is Darren Sproles. The major difference is Spiller does play for a signficantly worse offense, but the upside is that he has a shot at much more playing time from scrimmage than those two.

In leagues that ignore returns, I wouldn't touch this guy this year.

I'm hoping the negativity surrounding the Bills will allow me to snag him in the mid to late rounds as my RB3/4 since I only play in leagues that do reward returns.

 

[sholditch]

After watching film (highlights, don't have access to real film) of Hardesty, Spiller, and Mathews, I see Spiller as the most talented by far. I have nothing specific but he was just more impressive. Impressive enough to win the starting job outright over lesser competition. Mathews in redraft is going to be taken somwhere between 3-5. Spiller could be available after the sixth. Most people based their projections of Mathews as much on his situation as talent. With McNeil looking at least likely to sit out the season, along with the Chargers WR1, I don't the Chargers situ as that much better than Buffalo's, especially with a mediocre defense. The difference in ADP could make Spiller a league winner if I am right, and if I am wrong, all you have done is burnt a 6-8th. If you bet on Mathews and you are wrong, you have burnt a 3-5th, which hurts a lot worse.

I conservatively pegged Spiller at 235 carries in my projections and had him coming out with something like 1300 total and 10 TDs. I am actually leaning closer to him getting carries in the 260-270 range. If that comes true, we are talking about the SOD in redraft, especially in ppr.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

After watching film (highlights, don't have access to real film) of Hardesty, Spiller, and Mathews, I see Spiller as the most talented by far. I have nothing specific but he was just more impressive. Impressive enough to win the starting job outright over lesser competition. Mathews in redraft is going to be taken somwhere between 3-5. Spiller could be available after the sixth. Most people based their projections of Mathews as much on his situation as talent. With McNeil looking at least likely to sit out the season, along with the Chargers WR1, I don't the Chargers situ as that much better than Buffalo's, especially with a mediocre defense. The difference in ADP could make Spiller a league winner if I am right, and if I am wrong, all you have done is burnt a 6-8th. If you bet on Mathews and you are wrong, you have burnt a 3-5th, which hurts a lot worse.I conservatively pegged Spiller at 235 carries in my projections and had him coming out with something like 1300 total and 10 TDs. I am actually leaning closer to him getting carries in the 260-270 range. If that comes true, we are talking about the SOD in redraft, especially in ppr.

How many of these highlights..were punt and kick returns....him just bouncing it to the outside??? Spiller lacks power..vision...toughness...running mentality(ask reggie bush) to be a #1 in the NFL. As a part time player schemed the right way...he could be good. As the full time #1 RB....not so much.

 

[Carolina Hustler]

After watching film (highlights, don't have access to real film) of Hardesty, Spiller, and Mathews, I see Spiller as the most talented by far. I have nothing specific but he was just more impressive. Impressive enough to win the starting job outright over lesser competition. Mathews in redraft is going to be taken somwhere between 3-5. Spiller could be available after the sixth. Most people based their projections of Mathews as much on his situation as talent. With McNeil looking at least likely to sit out the season, along with the Chargers WR1, I don't the Chargers situ as that much better than Buffalo's, especially with a mediocre defense. The difference in ADP could make Spiller a league winner if I am right, and if I am wrong, all you have done is burnt a 6-8th. If you bet on Mathews and you are wrong, you have burnt a 3-5th, which hurts a lot worse.I conservatively pegged Spiller at 235 carries in my projections and had him coming out with something like 1300 total and 10 TDs. I am actually leaning closer to him getting carries in the 260-270 range. If that comes true, we are talking about the SOD in redraft, especially in ppr.

My man...? Have you bumped your head? lolThere is no doubt in my mind that this is all wishful thinking for a Spiller owner.I like Spiller, but I would grade him on overall talent, below Best. Best took a vicious hit that would have had to nearly kill a normal human. And his injury history is well known. If not for the injury/health issues, Best would have been the highest drafted RB. If you have seen this kid play, you will agree.And the situation screams 3way rbbc... You couldn't seriously think the bills won't utilize the 3 talented backs on their roster, and dump a season all in a rookies lap. Tell me this doesn't go against all you know about football...Rookies get #1 status in their first years when:1) they are top talent and both physically and mentally ready for the heavy competition and2) the team doesn't have a viable option otherwise..In this case, Spiller may be ready (none of us could honestly say), but they can afford to work him in slowly with 2 other talented RB's on the roster..

 

[Tau837]

I conservatively pegged Spiller at 235 carries in my projections and had him coming out with something like 1300 total and 10 TDs. I am actually leaning closer to him getting carries in the 260-270 range. If that comes true, we are talking about the SOD in redraft, especially in ppr.

at characterizing Spiller's carries at 235 as being conservative.