Are We All Dead Wrong on Spiller? (1 Viewer)

[sholditch]

After watching film (highlights, don't have access to real film) of Hardesty, Spiller, and Mathews, I see Spiller as the most talented by far. I have nothing specific but he was just more impressive. Impressive enough to win the starting job outright over lesser competition. Mathews in redraft is going to be taken somwhere between 3-5. Spiller could be available after the sixth. Most people based their projections of Mathews as much on his situation as talent. With McNeil looking at least likely to sit out the season, along with the Chargers WR1, I don't the Chargers situ as that much better than Buffalo's, especially with a mediocre defense. The difference in ADP could make Spiller a league winner if I am right, and if I am wrong, all you have done is burnt a 6-8th. If you bet on Mathews and you are wrong, you have burnt a 3-5th, which hurts a lot worse.I conservatively pegged Spiller at 235 carries in my projections and had him coming out with something like 1300 total and 10 TDs. I am actually leaning closer to him getting carries in the 260-270 range. If that comes true, we are talking about the SOD in redraft, especially in ppr.

My man...? Have you bumped your head? lolThere is no doubt in my mind that this is all wishful thinking for a Spiller owner.I like Spiller, but I would grade him on overall talent, below Best. Best took a vicious hit that would have had to nearly kill a normal human. And his injury history is well known. If not for the injury/health issues, Best would have been the highest drafted RB. If you have seen this kid play, you will agree.And the situation screams 3way rbbc... You couldn't seriously think the bills won't utilize the 3 talented backs on their roster, and dump a season all in a rookies lap. Tell me this doesn't go against all you know about football...Rookies get #1 status in their first years when:1) they are top talent and both physically and mentally ready for the heavy competition and2) the team doesn't have a viable option otherwise..In this case, Spiller may be ready (none of us could honestly say), but they can afford to work him in slowly with 2 other talented RB's on the roster..

i see what you're saying buti think he can legitimately beat the competitionbecause I really think they both suckand I think at his adp, he'll have more opportunity than that suggests, and I have watched him for a while and always thought he would make a good pro. At RB29/26, he represents tremendous upside, more than Mathews and Best who have better situations and thus lower ADPs. That's all, I'm not saying he all that much better than Mathews or Best, probably only just as good in a slightly worse situation depending on your opinion of SD's o-line and whether you are buying (again) that Detroit will finally put it together. All I'm saying is that everyone assuming a washed out RB and a previous career backup are going to take away from what I view as a real talent is going to present opportunity in most drafts before camp. After camp I think he'll be going a bit higher, not much but enough to hurt the upside.

 

[gianmarco]

After watching film (highlights, don't have access to real film) of Hardesty, Spiller, and Mathews, I see Spiller as the most talented by far. I have nothing specific but he was just more impressive. Impressive enough to win the starting job outright over lesser competition. Mathews in redraft is going to be taken somwhere between 3-5. Spiller could be available after the sixth. Most people based their projections of Mathews as much on his situation as talent. With McNeil looking at least likely to sit out the season, along with the Chargers WR1, I don't the Chargers situ as that much better than Buffalo's, especially with a mediocre defense. The difference in ADP could make Spiller a league winner if I am right, and if I am wrong, all you have done is burnt a 6-8th. If you bet on Mathews and you are wrong, you have burnt a 3-5th, which hurts a lot worse.

I conservatively pegged Spiller at 235 carries in my projections and had him coming out with something like 1300 total and 10 TDs. I am actually leaning closer to him getting carries in the 260-270 range. If that comes true, we are talking about the SOD in redraft, especially in ppr.

How many of these highlights..were punt and kick returns....him just bouncing it to the outside??? Spiller lacks power..vision...toughness...running mentality(ask reggie bush) to be a #1 in the NFL. As a part time player schemed the right way...he could be good. As the full time #1 RB....not so much.

Lacks vision? Lacks toughness?

Lacks "running mentality"?

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

After watching film (highlights, don't have access to real film) of Hardesty, Spiller, and Mathews, I see Spiller as the most talented by far. I have nothing specific but he was just more impressive. Impressive enough to win the starting job outright over lesser competition. Mathews in redraft is going to be taken somwhere between 3-5. Spiller could be available after the sixth. Most people based their projections of Mathews as much on his situation as talent. With McNeil looking at least likely to sit out the season, along with the Chargers WR1, I don't the Chargers situ as that much better than Buffalo's, especially with a mediocre defense. The difference in ADP could make Spiller a league winner if I am right, and if I am wrong, all you have done is burnt a 6-8th. If you bet on Mathews and you are wrong, you have burnt a 3-5th, which hurts a lot worse.

I conservatively pegged Spiller at 235 carries in my projections and had him coming out with something like 1300 total and 10 TDs. I am actually leaning closer to him getting carries in the 260-270 range. If that comes true, we are talking about the SOD in redraft, especially in ppr.

How many of these highlights..were punt and kick returns....him just bouncing it to the outside??? Spiller lacks power..vision...toughness...running mentality(ask reggie bush) to be a #1 in the NFL. As a part time player schemed the right way...he could be good. As the full time #1 RB....not so much.

Lacks vision? Lacks toughness?

Lacks "running mentality"?

Well as long as you say so...

 

[Cassius]

I conservatively pegged Spiller at 235 carries in my projections and had him coming out with something like 1300 total and 10 TDs. I am actually leaning closer to him getting carries in the 260-270 range. If that comes true, we are talking about the SOD in redraft, especially in ppr.

at characterizing Spiller's carries at 235 as being conservative.

Seriously.Another couple YouTube clips and shold will have him penciled in for 525 carries.

 

[Carolina Hustler]

After watching film (highlights, don't have access to real film) of Hardesty, Spiller, and Mathews, I see Spiller as the most talented by far. I have nothing specific but he was just more impressive. Impressive enough to win the starting job outright over lesser competition. Mathews in redraft is going to be taken somwhere between 3-5. Spiller could be available after the sixth. Most people based their projections of Mathews as much on his situation as talent. With McNeil looking at least likely to sit out the season, along with the Chargers WR1, I don't the Chargers situ as that much better than Buffalo's, especially with a mediocre defense. The difference in ADP could make Spiller a league winner if I am right, and if I am wrong, all you have done is burnt a 6-8th. If you bet on Mathews and you are wrong, you have burnt a 3-5th, which hurts a lot worse.I conservatively pegged Spiller at 235 carries in my projections and had him coming out with something like 1300 total and 10 TDs. I am actually leaning closer to him getting carries in the 260-270 range. If that comes true, we are talking about the SOD in redraft, especially in ppr.

My man...? Have you bumped your head? lolThere is no doubt in my mind that this is all wishful thinking for a Spiller owner.I like Spiller, but I would grade him on overall talent, below Best. Best took a vicious hit that would have had to nearly kill a normal human. And his injury history is well known. If not for the injury/health issues, Best would have been the highest drafted RB. If you have seen this kid play, you will agree.And the situation screams 3way rbbc... You couldn't seriously think the bills won't utilize the 3 talented backs on their roster, and dump a season all in a rookies lap. Tell me this doesn't go against all you know about football...Rookies get #1 status in their first years when:1) they are top talent and both physically and mentally ready for the heavy competition and2) the team doesn't have a viable option otherwise..In this case, Spiller may be ready (none of us could honestly say), but they can afford to work him in slowly with 2 other talented RB's on the roster..

i see what you're saying buti think he can legitimately beat the competitionbecause I really think they both suckand I think at his adp, he'll have more opportunity than that suggests, and I have watched him for a while and always thought he would make a good pro. At RB29/26, he represents tremendous upside, more than Mathews and Best who have better situations and thus lower ADPs. That's all, I'm not saying he all that much better than Mathews or Best, probably only just as good in a slightly worse situation depending on your opinion of SD's o-line and whether you are buying (again) that Detroit will finally put it together. All I'm saying is that everyone assuming a washed out RB and a previous career backup are going to take away from what I view as a real talent is going to present opportunity in most drafts before camp. After camp I think he'll be going a bit higher, not much but enough to hurt the upside.

Who is the washout? Lynch has had one bad year, the year he was suspended and then never after had an uncontested full load of carries. Lynch is a beast and by far a better between the tackles guy and short yardage guy then Spiller. Jackson has also proven he could get the job done. Where does this label you have for him come from? It doesn't matter what his job had been in the past, if the player can ball, he'll be on the field. There is no way, Spiller will play so well, that Buffalo will afford to give him "Conservatively 240 carries" or anywhere close to 270 carries. I'd say 240 would be his ceiling for the first year, I'd I honesty am expecting it to be much lower.And his adp does not dictate his opportunity, it dictates yours. I understand what you're saying though, you are willing to take him in the 6th over Best in the 4th, or where ever you have them going. But what i'm saying is, you're getting less 2010 production and worse odds as far as production goes. Both Best and Matthews are going to get more touches (many more), have better opportunities, with no real competition, and better playing conditions. And I'd argue that given the exact same situation/touches, Best would out perform spiller anyway... Matthews is a different kind of back, not as fast but better between the tackles, better at breaking tackles, maybe better vision as well.

 

[sholditch]

Worse odds + being right = value

Cheap upside always comes with some risk. How cheap? In ppr adp Spiller is going 60th overall, between Reggie Bush and Brent Celek. Mathews is going 30th between Wells and Moreno. Best is going 52nd between Witten and Ochocinco.

Best could be good value but once the hype train really gets into motion he'll be going higher. Everyone is talking up Detroit's offense (again) and everyone is really down on Buffalo.

To me, the chances of Spiller outperforming backs like Bush, McFadden, Barber, and Jacobs is much higher than Mathews outperforming Moreno and Wells or Best outperforming Forte.

In non-ppr his value proposition is even higher. Actually going behind Ricky Williams (another vastly undervalued back this year) and just before Jerome Harrison. He's a no brainer target in non-ppr.

If I am looking at a choice of Spiller and Best I take Best, but I won't be because people will be taking Best right along with established guys since the hype train on Detroit is chugging. Buffalo's train hasn't and likely won't leave the station, so Spiller will be undervalued, plus you can get both he and Jackson in rounds 6-7.

Sorry, but I think Spiller is at least as talented as Best, probably more talented (but smaller) than Mathews in some aspects. I looked at some of his scouting reports and this guy agrees with the camp that says he won't do much

Scouting report from waltersports:

C.J. Spiller Scouting Report

By Matt McGuire

# Strengths: Solid bulk

# Extremely fast with gamebreaking ability

# Instinctive back

# Patient and sets up blockers

# Great vision to identify cutback lanes at line of scrimmage and in open field

# Very elusive and evades tacklers

# Great spin move

# Runs routes well out of backfield

# Lots of experience catching the ball

# Soft hands

# Nice second gear to go distance

# Breaks a good amount of tackles for his weight

# Can contribute as a returner

# Projects as an excellent No. 2, change-of-pace running back

# Good YPC average despite weak offensive line

Weaknesses:

# Won't get that much bigger without losing speed

# Not very assertive between the tackles

# Generally shys from contact this is a good thing

# Not very powerful

# Not going to get much done on the goal line

# Weak inside runner

# Mediocre in pass protection

# Not an explosive or exceptional punt returner

# Cuts outside far too often

Summary: Spiller profiles as a very explosive back, but isn't a No. 1 in the NFL, which isn't an entirely bad thing. He needs to work on his pass protection the most so he can really help out virtually every team on third down. With James Davis gone, he has a chance to show teams he can handle a greater workload in 2009.

Player Comparison: Reggie Bush. Both backs love to kick it outside and have the elite athleticism to make everyone miss in the open field as great home-run threats.

Just for comparison I looked up CJ's scouting profile

Strengths: A very quick back with excellent initial burst…one of the fastest RB in the 2008 NFL Draft…he has the ability to stop on a dime and chance direction…he has surprising strength for a relatively undersized RB…able to help out in the return game and on special teams…was used as a receiver at times in college and has excellent hands, which helps his overall upside moving forward…he has very good vision and has the ability to take every play to the endzone.

Weaknesses: He isn’t a big back so he has to answer the question whether or not he can be an effective runner in between the tackles…can he be an effective blocker considering he is on the smallish size and wasn’t frequently used as a blocker while at East Carolina?…whenever an undersized back enters the NFL, injuries are a large concern…does he have the complete game to be a featured back…not coming from a traditional power he didn’t play against the top competition that college football has to offer…failed miserably to help out in pass blocking at the Senior Bowl...tries to take every play to the outside, which is unlikely to work in the NFL

 

[pretender]

From a draft guide that you have to pay for CJ Spiller was number 1 ranked talent prior to the draft. Followed by Ryan mathews, Jonathan Dwyer and Jahvid Best

For positional traits he was ranked best in Best Athlete, outside Run, Best hands, Best After Catch, Best Instincts and Best Intangibles. Best wasn't ranked best in any catagory - others being inside runner, goalline runner (Jonahtan Dwyer and Best blocker - toby Gerhart and Most Durable Anthony Dixon.

A little from CJ Spiller's review

"Fast compact senior tailback displayed big time talent as one of the nation's premier playmakers over his Clemson career, CJ combines all the athletic talent to become a top NFL feature back with well rounded skills including impact return skills, He has natural running skills including terrific vision, excellent cutting skills and top sped to run inside as well as make the big play regularlyl. he shows soft sure hands as a reeiver to rank among the best in that role in recent memory, though not fully utilized in that capacity as a collegian.

Tough productive tailback ....He is a fine goal line runner with good quickness and fine power that should warrant a key role in a pro offense. He is similar to current backs marshawn Lunch and Julius Jones who were tough college starters and NFL feature backs. (until they ran into trouble) Hindu Theory Tiki Barber

Javid Best - Quick junior tailback had a fine career in the Pac 10 earning conference honors over his final two seasons. Jahvid is an athletic back wi a fine burst of speed that ranks him with the top runners in this class. He explodes through the hole to the second level with the speed to make a big play. He is a smoot runner who fllows his blockers well showing the ability to make defenders miss, slide laterally and break tackles....... As a prospect, he is a very good athlete with a fine skill set for the position to be an immediate factor in a pro backfield, best as a 1A type of runner without being a workhorse back. His ability to pick up th blitz may determine his early pro playing time.

Fine athlete with the taletn and physical abiltityto be a factor early as a pro. His natural running and recieving skills will givan an offense an immediate boost if used properly....Initially as a pro, he will compete for starting time and has the development to be a good chang of pace and 3rd down back. Hindu theory Leon Washington

Hard to say - but I still believe the cream will rise to the top. For immediate help - Best as he is in the best situation - but long term - I think Spiller will be the one.

 

[Carolina Hustler]

Worse odds + being right = value

Cheap upside always comes with some risk. How cheap? In ppr adp Spiller is going 60th overall, between Reggie Bush and Brent Celek. Mathews is going 30th between Wells and Moreno. Best is going 52nd between Witten and Ochocinco.

Best could be good value but once the hype train really gets into motion he'll be going higher. Everyone is talking up Detroit's offense (again) and everyone is really down on Buffalo.

To me, the chances of Spiller outperforming backs like Bush, McFadden, Barber, and Jacobs is much higher than Mathews outperforming Moreno and Wells or Best outperforming Forte.

In non-ppr his value proposition is even higher. Actually going behind Ricky Williams (another vastly undervalued back this year) and just before Jerome Harrison. He's a no brainer target in non-ppr.

If I am looking at a choice of Spiller and Best I take Best, but I won't be because people will be taking Best right along with established guys since the hype train on Detroit is chugging. Buffalo's train hasn't and likely won't leave the station, so Spiller will be undervalued, plus you can get both he and Jackson in rounds 6-7.

Sorry, but I think Spiller is at least as talented as Best, probably more talented (but smaller) than Mathews in some aspects. I looked at some of his scouting reports and this guy agrees with the camp that says he won't do much

Scouting report from waltersports:

C.J. Spiller Scouting Report

By Matt McGuire

# Strengths: Solid bulk

# Extremely fast with gamebreaking ability

# Instinctive back

# Patient and sets up blockers

# Great vision to identify cutback lanes at line of scrimmage and in open field

# Very elusive and evades tacklers

# Great spin move

# Runs routes well out of backfield

# Lots of experience catching the ball

# Soft hands

# Nice second gear to go distance

# Breaks a good amount of tackles for his weight

# Can contribute as a returner

# Projects as an excellent No. 2, change-of-pace running back

# Good YPC average despite weak offensive line

Weaknesses:

# Won't get that much bigger without losing speed

# Not very assertive between the tackles

# Generally shys from contact this is a good thing

# Not very powerful

# Not going to get much done on the goal line

# Weak inside runner

# Mediocre in pass protection

# Not an explosive or exceptional punt returner

# Cuts outside far too often

Summary: Spiller profiles as a very explosive back, but isn't a No. 1 in the NFL, which isn't an entirely bad thing. He needs to work on his pass protection the most so he can really help out virtually every team on third down. With James Davis gone, he has a chance to show teams he can handle a greater workload in 2009.

Player Comparison: Reggie Bush. Both backs love to kick it outside and have the elite athleticism to make everyone miss in the open field as great home-run threats.

Just for comparison I looked up CJ's scouting profile

Strengths: A very quick back with excellent initial burst…one of the fastest RB in the 2008 NFL Draft…he has the ability to stop on a dime and chance direction…he has surprising strength for a relatively undersized RB…able to help out in the return game and on special teams…was used as a receiver at times in college and has excellent hands, which helps his overall upside moving forward…he has very good vision and has the ability to take every play to the endzone.

Weaknesses: He isn’t a big back so he has to answer the question whether or not he can be an effective runner in between the tackles…can he be an effective blocker considering he is on the smallish size and wasn’t frequently used as a blocker while at East Carolina?…whenever an undersized back enters the NFL, injuries are a large concern…does he have the complete game to be a featured back…not coming from a traditional power he didn’t play against the top competition that college football has to offer…failed miserably to help out in pass blocking at the Senior Bowl...tries to take every play to the outside, which is unlikely to work in the NFL

Worse odds = less chance of being right.,.. lol

Best at 52 > Spiller at 60... and that isn't even close... at all....

Sorry to point out to you, but the scouting info that you've posted.. umm contradicts your argument, and kinda fortifies the opposition...

Just come out and say it, you own spiller and you're looking for confirmation even if you have to argue hard to get it...

 

[BigTex]

From a draft guide that you have to pay for CJ Spiller was number 1 ranked talent prior to the draft. Followed by Ryan mathews, Jonathan Dwyer and Jahvid Best

For positional traits he was ranked best in Best Athlete, outside Run, Best hands, Best After Catch, Best Instincts and Best Intangibles. Best wasn't ranked best in any catagory - others being inside runner, goalline runner (Jonahtan Dwyer and Best blocker - toby Gerhart and Most Durable Anthony Dixon.

A little from CJ Spiller's review

"Fast compact senior tailback displayed big time talent as one of the nation's premier playmakers over his Clemson career, CJ combines all the athletic talent to become a top NFL feature back with well rounded skills including impact return skills, He has natural running skills including terrific vision, excellent cutting skills and top sped to run inside as well as make the big play regularlyl. he shows soft sure hands as a reeiver to rank among the best in that role in recent memory, though not fully utilized in that capacity as a collegian.

Tough productive tailback ....He is a fine goal line runner with good quickness and fine power that should warrant a key role in a pro offense. He is similar to current backs marshawn Lunch and Julius Jones who were tough college starters and NFL feature backs. (until they ran into trouble) Hindu Theory Tiki Barber

Javid Best - Quick junior tailback had a fine career in the Pac 10 earning conference honors over his final two seasons. Jahvid is an athletic back wi a fine burst of speed that ranks him with the top runners in this class. He explodes through the hole to the second level with the speed to make a big play. He is a smoot runner who fllows his blockers well showing the ability to make defenders miss, slide laterally and break tackles....... As a prospect, he is a very good athlete with a fine skill set for the position to be an immediate factor in a pro backfield, best as a 1A type of runner without being a workhorse back. His ability to pick up th blitz may determine his early pro playing time.

Fine athlete with the taletn and physical abiltityto be a factor early as a pro. His natural running and recieving skills will givan an offense an immediate boost if used properly....Initially as a pro, he will compete for starting time and has the development to be a good chang of pace and 3rd down back. Hindu theory Leon Washington

Hard to say - but I still believe the cream will rise to the top. For immediate help - Best as he is in the best situation - but long term - I think Spiller will be the one.

 

[Garts]

Worse odds + being right = value

Cheap upside always comes with some risk. How cheap? In ppr adp Spiller is going 60th overall, between Reggie Bush and Brent Celek. Mathews is going 30th between Wells and Moreno. Best is going 52nd between Witten and Ochocinco.

Best could be good value but once the hype train really gets into motion he'll be going higher. Everyone is talking up Detroit's offense (again) and everyone is really down on Buffalo.

To me, the chances of Spiller outperforming backs like Bush, McFadden, Barber, and Jacobs is much higher than Mathews outperforming Moreno and Wells or Best outperforming Forte.

In non-ppr his value proposition is even higher. Actually going behind Ricky Williams (another vastly undervalued back this year) and just before Jerome Harrison. He's a no brainer target in non-ppr.

If I am looking at a choice of Spiller and Best I take Best, but I won't be because people will be taking Best right along with established guys since the hype train on Detroit is chugging. Buffalo's train hasn't and likely won't leave the station, so Spiller will be undervalued, plus you can get both he and Jackson in rounds 6-7.

Sorry, but I think Spiller is at least as talented as Best, probably more talented (but smaller) than Mathews in some aspects. I looked at some of his scouting reports and this guy agrees with the camp that says he won't do much

Scouting report from waltersports:

C.J. Spiller Scouting Report

By Matt McGuire

# Strengths: Solid bulk

# Extremely fast with gamebreaking ability

# Instinctive back

# Patient and sets up blockers

# Great vision to identify cutback lanes at line of scrimmage and in open field

# Very elusive and evades tacklers

# Great spin move

# Runs routes well out of backfield

# Lots of experience catching the ball

# Soft hands

# Nice second gear to go distance

# Breaks a good amount of tackles for his weight

# Can contribute as a returner

# Projects as an excellent No. 2, change-of-pace running back

# Good YPC average despite weak offensive line

Weaknesses:

# Won't get that much bigger without losing speed

# Not very assertive between the tackles

# Generally shys from contact this is a good thing

# Not very powerful

# Not going to get much done on the goal line

# Weak inside runner

# Mediocre in pass protection

# Not an explosive or exceptional punt returner

# Cuts outside far too often

Summary: Spiller profiles as a very explosive back, but isn't a No. 1 in the NFL, which isn't an entirely bad thing. He needs to work on his pass protection the most so he can really help out virtually every team on third down. With James Davis gone, he has a chance to show teams he can handle a greater workload in 2009.

Player Comparison: Reggie Bush. Both backs love to kick it outside and have the elite athleticism to make everyone miss in the open field as great home-run threats.

Just for comparison I looked up CJ's scouting profile

Strengths: A very quick back with excellent initial burst…one of the fastest RB in the 2008 NFL Draft…he has the ability to stop on a dime and chance direction…he has surprising strength for a relatively undersized RB…able to help out in the return game and on special teams…was used as a receiver at times in college and has excellent hands, which helps his overall upside moving forward…he has very good vision and has the ability to take every play to the endzone.

Weaknesses: He isn't a big back so he has to answer the question whether or not he can be an effective runner in between the tackles…can he be an effective blocker considering he is on the smallish size and wasn't frequently used as a blocker while at East Carolina?…whenever an undersized back enters the NFL, injuries are a large concern…does he have the complete game to be a featured back…not coming from a traditional power he didn't play against the top competition that college football has to offer…failed miserably to help out in pass blocking at the Senior Bowl...tries to take every play to the outside, which is unlikely to work in the NFL

Worse odds = less chance of being right.,.. lol

Best at 52 > Spiller at 60... and that isn't even close... at all....

Sorry to point out to you, but the scouting info that you've posted.. umm contradicts your argument, and kinda fortifies the opposition...

Just come out and say it, you own spiller and you're looking for confirmation even if you have to argue hard to get it...

I have the #3 pick and it will likely take me until after the pre-season games to make up my mind on Best or Spiller.

Leaning Best right now.

 

[sholditch]

Worse odds = less chance of being right.,.. lolBest at 52 > Spiller at 60... and that isn\'t even close... at all....Sorry to point out to you, but the scouting info that you\'ve posted.. umm contradicts your argument, and kinda fortifies the opposition...Just come out and say it, you own spiller and you\'re looking for confirmation even if you have to argue hard to get it...

No, I don\'t own and will have no shot at him in my dynasty draft and probably not in my keeper. I posted that info precisely because it did contradict what I am saying. I\'m really asking more than saying, and it seems like people are pretty mixed on him. And that scouting report is just one guy\'s opinion. As the other poster showed those opinions seem to be pretty varied on his feature back potential. And let\'s remember not very many thought CJ would be anywhere near as good as he is when he was drafted.Here are Mayock\'s and Kiper\'s comments\"The number that stands out for me is 51 career touchdowns, 21 of which went for 50 or more yards,\" says Mayock. \"So he\'s a big play waiting to happen.\" With Spiller, those coaches will have options aplenty. \"I think he could fit on any team,\" says Mayock. \"But if you struggle manufacturing yards, you don\'t get any big gulps of yards, he\'s the kind of guy that can do it. I think the way you have to look at C.J. Spiller in today\'s NFL is that he is a playmaker,\" says Mayock. \"I look at C.J. Spiller and I say I don\'t really care who you have on your roster at the running back position. You can call him (Spiller) anything you want. But he\'s got three-phase production. You can play him at tailback ... split him out wide ... put him in the slot, and he also can return kicks and punts. If you get him enough touches in space per game, he\'s going to get the ball in the end zone,\" says Mayock.\"It used to be that you looked for could a guy carry the ball 25 times,\" says ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper. \"Now, it\'s a stable. ... You\'ve got the quick guy ... the pounder ... another guy who can maybe catch the ball. ... There are a lot of different ways now that were not even there back in \'60s, \'70s and \'80s.\"\"He\'s tremendously fast, electrifying as a runner, receiver and return man. And he\'s considered to be one of the best character guys Clemson has ever had and the ACC has ever had in any player,\" says Kiper.

 

[Carolina Hustler]

Worse odds = less chance of being right.,.. lolBest at 52 > Spiller at 60... and that isn\'t even close... at all....Sorry to point out to you, but the scouting info that you\'ve posted.. umm contradicts your argument, and kinda fortifies the opposition...Just come out and say it, you own spiller and you\'re looking for confirmation even if you have to argue hard to get it...

No, I don\'t own and will have no shot at him in my dynasty draft and probably not in my keeper. I posted that info precisely because it did contradict what I am saying. I\'m really asking more than saying, and it seems like people are pretty mixed on him. And that scouting report is just one guy\'s opinion. As the other poster showed those opinions seem to be pretty varied on his feature back potential. And let\'s remember not very many thought CJ would be anywhere near as good as he is when he was drafted.Here are Mayock\'s and Kiper\'s comments\"The number that stands out for me is 51 career touchdowns, 21 of which went for 50 or more yards,\" says Mayock. \"So he\'s a big play waiting to happen.\" With Spiller, those coaches will have options aplenty. \"I think he could fit on any team,\" says Mayock. \"But if you struggle manufacturing yards, you don\'t get any big gulps of yards, he\'s the kind of guy that can do it. I think the way you have to look at C.J. Spiller in today\'s NFL is that he is a playmaker,\" says Mayock. \"I look at C.J. Spiller and I say I don\'t really care who you have on your roster at the running back position. You can call him (Spiller) anything you want. But he\'s got three-phase production. You can play him at tailback ... split him out wide ... put him in the slot, and he also can return kicks and punts. If you get him enough touches in space per game, he\'s going to get the ball in the end zone,\" says Mayock.\"It used to be that you looked for could a guy carry the ball 25 times,\" says ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper. \"Now, it\'s a stable. ... You\'ve got the quick guy ... the pounder ... another guy who can maybe catch the ball. ... There are a lot of different ways now that were not even there back in \'60s, \'70s and \'80s.\"\"He\'s tremendously fast, electrifying as a runner, receiver and return man. And he\'s considered to be one of the best character guys Clemson has ever had and the ACC has ever had in any player,\" says Kiper.

Just to be clear, I do like Spiller. And I think he will be a good career RB, I just don't think he sniffs his potential production in year 1. That being said, it takes a really special RB with the right opportunities to be elite. And I feel like what you're expecting out of Spiller in his first year could only be expected out of a true elite RB with the right opportunities. The situation is not good and the jury is still out on ability.. For those reasons I feel like you're projecting him quite a bit higher than he'll go on 2010 production...And in my opinion, Best is more like CJ then Spiller is. But neither of them match his potential.. In skill set or opportunity.

 

[jaybebo]

Jackson is a career backup and on the wrong side of 30

Jackson <30 - you're saying RBs should be over 30? I think Jackson has proven to be a capable starter, so I wouldn't write him off just yet. But I do agree that, as bad as the Bills should be this year, there's really no reason for them *not* to throw Spiller into the fire. Guess it depends on his blocking skills....

As Ranger stated...but not to mention the wear and tear on Jackson is minimal...only four years at the NFL level...he did spend two years in indoor leagues and spent a year in NFL Europe...but that is nominal...he could be a prime candidate to be the next Ricky Williams...not the pot smoking side of the deal...but the defying the age boundary...

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

\"The number that stands out for me is 51 career touchdowns, 21 of which went for 50 or more yards,\" says Mayock. \"So he\'s a big play waiting to happen.\" With Spiller, those coaches will have options aplenty. \"I think he could fit on any team,\" says Mayock. \"But if you struggle manufacturing yards, you don\'t get any big gulps of yards, he\'s the kind of guy that can do it. I think the way you have to look at C.J. Spiller in today\'s NFL is that he is a playmaker,\" says Mayock. \"I look at C.J. Spiller and I say I don\'t really care who you have on your roster at the running back position. You can call him (Spiller) anything you want. But he\'s got three-phase production. You can play him at tailback ... split him out wide ... put him in the slot, and he also can return kicks and punts. If you get him enough touches in space per game, he\'s going to get the ball in the end zone,\" says Mayock.

This has bugged me for quite some time(Spiller scoring 21 of his career TD's over 50 yards)9 of these are return(punt or kick) TD's....does this even matter for FF???

Breaking down the others by year:

09-1 run(66 yarder vs Wake), 4 receptions ( 63 yarder @ GT, 66 yarder vs Wake, 56 yarder @ Miami, 58 yarder vs Florida St)

08-1 reception(83 yarder vs Duke)

07-1 run(83 yarder @ Auburn) 1 reception(68 yarder vs Louisiana Monroe)

06-4 runs(80 yarder vs South Carolina, 52 yard run vs NCST, 50 yarder vs GT, 72 yarder vs Wake) 2 receptions(82 yarder vs BC, 50 yarder vs GT)

Color me more unimpressed by 6 career college td runs(the most important thing for a RB) over 50 yards(4 of them freshman year as well).

ETA: Jahvid Best had four runs over 80 yards in an 18 game period.

 

[sholditch]

TD runs over 50 yards are the most important thing for a RB? Seriously?

 

[Carolina Hustler]

TD runs over 50 yards are the most important thing for a RB? Seriously?

most important things for a RB are picking up first downs, blocking/picking up blitzers, and punching through on the goal line... Spiller grades out at : Picking up first downs - Bblocking/picking up blitzers - Dpunching through on the goal line - DIf a guy can't do those things well and consistently, he will not be the "go to guy"For that reason, I think Spiller may be a great play maker in situation, but not the starting RB in 2010, and no where near the 3 down back you've suggested, or the 260 carries you project... In 2010...

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

TD runs over 50 yards are the most important thing for a RB? Seriously?

Did I say that? In your post....you quoted experts all excited about his "big plays" I pointed out that only 6 were from him running the football.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

TD runs over 50 yards are the most important thing for a RB? Seriously?

Did I say that? In your post....you quoted experts all excited about his "big plays" I pointed out that only 6 were from him running the football.

I'm pretty sure you meant to say something different (I think you meant to say you were ignoring receptions), but yeah, your post reads like you said exactly that.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

TD runs over 50 yards are the most important thing for a RB? Seriously?

Did I say that? In your post....you quoted experts all excited about his "big plays" I pointed out that only 6 were from him running the football.

I'm pretty sure you meant to say something different (I think you meant to say you were ignoring receptions), but yeah, your post reads like you said exactly that.

Spiller:6 rushes over 50 yards...606 career carries= which equals .9% of every run has a chance to go over 50 yards

7 receptions over 50...123 career receptions= 5.6% of every reception has a chance to go over 50 yards

13 combined carries/receptions...729 touches= 1.7% chance on any touch Spiller goes for 50 yards or more.

Best:

13 rushes over 50 yards...364 career carries= 3.5% chance on any run has a chance to go 50 yards or more.

1 reception over 50 yards...62 receptions = 1.6% chance on any reception to go 50 yards or more.

14 combines carries/receptions....426 touches= 3.3% chance on any touch Best goes for 50 yards or more

Mathews:

11 rushes over 50 yards...534 carries=2.0% chance of every run has a chance to go 50 yards or more.

1 reception over 50 yards...19 receptions=5.2% chance of every reception to go 50 yards or more.

12 combined carries/receptions.....553 touches = 2.1% chance on any touch Mathews goes to 50 yards or more.

 

[Tau837]

TD runs over 50 yards are the most important thing for a RB? Seriously?

Did I say that? In your post....you quoted experts all excited about his "big plays" I pointed out that only 6 were from him running the football.

I'm pretty sure you meant to say something different (I think you meant to say you were ignoring receptions), but yeah, your post reads like you said exactly that.

Spiller:6 rushes over 50 yards...606 career carries= which equals .9% of every run has a chance to go over 50 yards

7 receptions over 50...123 career receptions= 5.6% of every reception has a chance to go over 50 yards

13 combined carries/receptions...729 touches= 1.7% chance on any touch Spiller goes for 50 yards or more.

Best:

13 rushes over 50 yards...364 career carries= 3.5% chance on any run has a chance to go 50 yards or more.

1 reception over 50 yards...62 receptions = 1.6% chance on any reception to go 50 yards or more.

14 combines carries/receptions....426 touches= 3.3% chance on any touch Best goes for 50 yards or more

Mathews:

11 rushes over 50 yards...534 carries=2.0% chance of every run has a chance to go 50 yards or more.

1 reception over 50 yards...19 receptions=5.2% chance of every reception to go 50 yards or more.

12 combined carries/receptions.....553 touches = 2.1% chance on any touch Mathews goes to 50 yards or more.

 

[sholditch]

OK, first of all, NONE of those guys will be able to do that in the NFL. Their college %s are pretty meaningless.

Second @C Hustler, this guy disagrees with your grades:

A little from CJ Spiller's review

"Fast compact senior tailback displayed big time talent as one of the nation's premier playmakers over his Clemson career, CJ combines all the athletic talent to become a top NFL feature back with well rounded skills including impact return skills, He has natural running skills including terrific vision, excellent cutting skills and top sped to run inside as well as make the big play regularlyl. he shows soft sure hands as a reeiver to rank among the best in that role in recent memory, though not fully utilized in that capacity as a collegian.

Tough productive tailback ....He is a fine goal line runner with good quickness and fine power that should warrant a key role in a pro offense. He is similar to current backs marshawn Lunch and Julius Jones who were tough college starters and NFL feature backs. (until they ran into trouble) Hindu Theory Tiki Barber

I've had my say but I think this is a good thread. Spiller is now officially my RB3 target in all redrafts, and depending on how my drafts go could be RB2.

 

[Carolina Hustler]

OK, first of all, NONE of those guys will be able to do that in the NFL. Their college %s are pretty meaningless.

Second @C Hustler, this guy disagrees with your grades:

A little from CJ Spiller's review

"Fast compact senior tailback displayed big time talent as one of the nation's premier playmakers over his Clemson career, CJ combines all the athletic talent to become a top NFL feature back with well rounded skills including impact return skills, He has natural running skills including terrific vision, excellent cutting skills and top sped to run inside as well as make the big play regularlyl. he shows soft sure hands as a reeiver to rank among the best in that role in recent memory, though not fully utilized in that capacity as a collegian.

Tough productive tailback ....He is a fine goal line runner with good quickness and fine power that should warrant a key role in a pro offense. He is similar to current backs marshawn Lunch and Julius Jones who were tough college starters and NFL feature backs. (until they ran into trouble) Hindu Theory Tiki Barber

I've had my say but I think this is a good thread. Spiller is now officially my RB3 target in all redrafts, and depending on how my drafts go could be RB2.

Spiller as a RB2 or 3 in a dynasty would be nice, but in redraft... hmm...

BTW, you posted yourself, the scouting report that completely agrees with my statement in one of your previous posts..

 

[sholditch]

I know, just pointing out there are differing opinions out there as to whether Spiller is good at the GL and prospects on feature back status.

I think Spiller is pretty safe as a backup. RB2 is where he really represents a gamble.

 

[Carolina Hustler]

I know, just pointing out there are differing opinions out there as to whether Spiller is good at the GL and prospects on feature back status.I think Spiller is pretty safe as a backup. RB2 is where he really represents a gamble.

Spiller as RB2 means you took 5 players before spiller and only one is a RB.. Obviously there could be other circumstances.. But in theory...So you'd have WR1 and 2 done, I guess you'd have taken a QB, then your RB1 obviously Who else? TE? D? WR3?... K?Why would he be your RB2?And no offense intended, but I think someone planning on going into a draft and making Spiller their RB2 in redraft would be insane.. Sorry.. Maybe worst case scenario? But to have a plan.. to do a REDRAFT.. and come out with spiller as your RB2..

 

[sholditch]

I could see myself taking three wide before a second RB, but no, he would more than likely end up being my RB3. But if there's a crazy early run on RBs and value emerges at QB and WR, even TE, yeah I could see that happening, but it's not something I'm planning.

Truth is I'd be more likely to take Ricky as I believe he's a lock for another 1000 yard season. But I would have to think hard about taking Spiller instead.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

OK, first of all, NONE of those guys will be able to do that in the NFL. Their college %s are pretty meaningless.

Do you always discount stats if they don't prove what you want to be correct?Spillers meal ticket is his "explosive plays"....but considering Best and Mathews have better chances of breaking big plays...it moves Spillers value down. Maybe you can get Spiller as your RB4.

 

[sholditch]

These guys ran in the ACC, the PAC-10, and the WAC. Three of the worst defensive conferences in college football. I don't think any of them will have the game-breaking ability they did in college. They will produce, but not like they did in school. CJ only had three runs over 50 yards last year, one of the most productive seasons for a RB in NFL history.

 

[travdogg]

I think Spiller could be a very good player, but I really don't trust Buffalo very much. If everything goes to plan they could have a pick your poison type effect with Evans deep and Spiller in the flats. Of course they would need the O-line to be at least below average as opposed to awful and they'd need Edwards or whoever the QB is to grow a pair and actually be willing to throw the ball down the field, but they have some big play ability. Let's not forget Chan Gailey has done a lot with less before.

All in all, I wouldn't draft Spiller as anything more than a RB3, but he has upside and has a bright dynasty future. I'd still take him 4th in dynasty leagues, but I don't believe there is some massive dropoff between 1-4.

 

[JPeso]

I think Spiller could be a very good player, but I really don't trust Buffalo very much. If everything goes to plan they could have a pick your poison type effect with Evans deep and Spiller in the flats. Of course they would need the O-line to be at least below average as opposed to awful and they'd need Edwards or whoever the QB is to grow a pair and actually be willing to throw the ball down the field, but they have some big play ability. Let's not forget Chan Gailey has done a lot with less before.

Buffalo's offensive line is better than San Diego's.

 

[sholditch]

I think Spiller could be a very good player, but I really don't trust Buffalo very much. If everything goes to plan they could have a pick your poison type effect with Evans deep and Spiller in the flats. Of course they would need the O-line to be at least below average as opposed to awful and they'd need Edwards or whoever the QB is to grow a pair and actually be willing to throw the ball down the field, but they have some big play ability. Let's not forget Chan Gailey has done a lot with less before.

All in all, I wouldn't draft Spiller as anything more than a RB3, but he has upside and has a bright dynasty future. I'd still take him 4th in dynasty leagues, but I don't believe there is some massive dropoff between 1-4.

Love it. Captain Checkdown is on the way out the Bills should be able to grab a QB in round 1 of next year's draft. This is really the only reason for tempering my expectations on him this year, not Lynch or Jackson or Spiller's size.

 

[Thorpe]

These guys ran in the ACC, the PAC-10, and the WAC. Three of the worst defensive conferences in college football. I don't think any of them will have the game-breaking ability they did in college. They will produce, but not like they did in school. CJ only had three runs over 50 yards last year, one of the most productive seasons for a RB in NFL history.

The ACC and Pac 10 are not the worst defensive conferences. Throw out Wash St, and the Pac 10 is very repectable when it comes to run defense (even though almost every team has great running backs). The ACC is also pretty strong. I will give you the WAC for being garbage on defense, but Fresno always plays a very difficult non-conf schedule. The SEC is widely considered the best defensive conference, but last year the only two teams with solid defenses were Bama and Florida. The B12 has 3 good defenses, and the rest are very porous. The biggest thing that could limit Spillers playing time is his pass protection. If he can pick up a blitzer, I think he could get half the total carries. The Bills could also run the Wildcat a lot this year, and that can only help Spillers numbers.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

These guys ran in the ACC, the PAC-10, and the WAC. Three of the worst defensive conferences in college football. I don't think any of them will have the game-breaking ability they did in college. They will produce, but not like they did in school. CJ only had three runs over 50 yards last year, one of the most productive seasons for a RB in NFL history.

I agree that they will all produce less big plays in the NFL. But when Spiller produced the least amount of big plays in college...how will that show in the NFL??? Especially when Spiller is the worst short yardage/GL/inside runner of the three players.

 

[LawFitz]

These guys ran in the ACC, the PAC-10, and the WAC. Three of the worst defensive conferences in college football. I don't think any of them will have the game-breaking ability they did in college. They will produce, but not like they did in school. CJ only had three runs over 50 yards last year, one of the most productive seasons for a RB in NFL history.

I agree that they will all produce less big plays in the NFL. But when Spiller produced the least amount of big plays in college...how will that show in the NFL??? Especially when Spiller is the worst short yardage/GL/inside runner of the three players.

Spiller's return skills will be his biggest early asset and he is eased into the offense alongside FJax and Lynch.

 

[southeastjerome]

Spiller definitely passes the eye test. Being a BC fan and seeing him go up against them several times, I remember thinking on multiple occasions that I will draft this guy for sure, no matter what. There are several specific plays that stand out to me that I'll never forget seeing. Then he got drafted by Buffalo. A bad team, bad offensive line and a crowded backfield. It definitely soured me a bit on him, but this might actually be a good opportunity. More than any other offensive skill player in this draft, I think he has the best chance to be the next fantasy stud, especially in ppr.

 

[Nero]

Spiller is the guy in the Best/Spiller debate and its not that close. Just because Best is more shifty than Spiller, it doesn't mean he has better instincts and vision. Spiller's style is a little more straight forward which tends to work better on the NFL level. Bush averaged nearly 9 ypc in college, but when u can be dragged down by and hand tackle (not an arm) like Best will you tend to bounce things outside far more than you should. Spiller's strength is will prove to be far superior to Best and that is what is going to separate them. Spiller will be a bell cow, Best will be a productive member of a time share. 2010 is the only season where Best will outproduce Spiller. We are talking a RB1 vs a low end RB2. Bank it.

 

[Bayhawks]

These guys ran in the ACC, the PAC-10, and the WAC. Three of the worst defensive conferences in college football. I don't think any of them will have the game-breaking ability they did in college. They will produce, but not like they did in school. CJ only had three runs over 50 yards last year, one of the most productive seasons for a RB in NFL history.

This is just stupid wrong.CJ had 5 rushing TDs of over 50 yards last year, and 2 receiving TDs of over 50 yards.

If you can't even get this simple fact right, why should anyone give any credence to any of your other arguments?

 

[a.wilkersonjr]

I'm really high on Spiller. I don't think the Bills would have ignored more glaring needs at OT, QB, WR and OLB if they didn't expect Spiller to be THE guy early in his career. I see training camp for the Bills as two separate battles: Spiller vs. Jackson for the bulk of the carries, and the Jackson vs. Lynch for the 3rd down and goal line work. I just don't see Fred Jackson winning either of these, and I expect him to be the odd man out.

 

[BigTex]

Spiller is the guy in the Best/Spiller debate and its not that close. Just because Best is more shifty than Spiller, it doesn't mean he has better instincts and vision. Spiller's style is a little more straight forward which tends to work better on the NFL level. Bush averaged nearly 9 ypc in college, but when u can be dragged down by and hand tackle (not an arm) like Best will you tend to bounce things outside far more than you should. Spiller's strength is will prove to be far superior to Best and that is what is going to separate them. Spiller will be a bell cow, Best will be a productive member of a time share. 2010 is the only season where Best will outproduce Spiller. We are talking a RB1 vs a low end RB2. Bank it.

 

[BigTex]

These guys ran in the ACC, the PAC-10, and the WAC. Three of the worst defensive conferences in college football. I don't think any of them will have the game-breaking ability they did in college. They will produce, but not like they did in school. CJ only had three runs over 50 yards last year, one of the most productive seasons for a RB in NFL history.

This is just stupid wrong.CJ had 5 rushing TDs of over 50 yards last year, and 2 receiving TDs of over 50 yards.

If you can't even get this simple fact right, why should anyone give any credence to any of your other arguments?

Many in this thread have their blinders on, man I love football.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

These guys ran in the ACC, the PAC-10, and the WAC. Three of the worst defensive conferences in college football. I don't think any of them will have the game-breaking ability they did in college. They will produce, but not like they did in school. CJ only had three runs over 50 yards last year, one of the most productive seasons for a RB in NFL history.

I agree that they will all produce less big plays in the NFL. But when Spiller produced the least amount of big plays in college...how will that show in the NFL??? Especially when Spiller is the worst short yardage/GL/inside runner of the three players.

I don't know, how has it "shown in the NFL" for Chris Johnson, who had less 50+ yard runs/receptions in his senior year than almost all of the other 1st round picks at RB that year (Mendenhall, Felix Jones, Darren McFadden)?I would say it's worked out A-OK.

 

[Carolina Hustler]

Spiller is the guy in the Best/Spiller debate and its not that close. Just because Best is more shifty than Spiller, it doesn't mean he has better instincts and vision. Spiller's style is a little more straight forward which tends to work better on the NFL level. Bush averaged nearly 9 ypc in college, but when u can be dragged down by and hand tackle (not an arm) like Best will you tend to bounce things outside far more than you should. Spiller's strength is will prove to be far superior to Best and that is what is going to separate them. Spiller will be a bell cow, Best will be a productive member of a time share. 2010 is the only season where Best will outproduce Spiller. We are talking a RB1 vs a low end RB2. Bank it.

The Spiller/Best debate in this topic is based on 2010 productionThe OP said:

I loved this kid in college and like most have gotten down on his prospects for the 2010 season, but are we all wrong on this one?

So by saying Spiller wins the debate, and saying "2010 is the only season where Best will outproduce Spiller." you're contradicting yourself.

 

[Carolina Hustler]

These guys ran in the ACC, the PAC-10, and the WAC. Three of the worst defensive conferences in college football. I don't think any of them will have the game-breaking ability they did in college. They will produce, but not like they did in school. CJ only had three runs over 50 yards last year, one of the most productive seasons for a RB in NFL history.

This is just stupid wrong.CJ had 5 rushing TDs of over 50 yards last year, and 2 receiving TDs of over 50 yards.

If you can't even get this simple fact right, why should anyone give any credence to any of your other arguments?

Many in this thread have their blinders on, man I love football.

Why don't you contribute while you're here.. Maybe explain which side your on at the very least.The debate is over which will produce more in 2010, Spiller or Best...

Well.....? Guess we'll see who has there blinders on...

 

[Nero]

Spiller is the guy in the Best/Spiller debate and its not that close. Just because Best is more shifty than Spiller, it doesn't mean he has better instincts and vision. Spiller's style is a little more straight forward which tends to work better on the NFL level. Bush averaged nearly 9 ypc in college, but when u can be dragged down by and hand tackle (not an arm) like Best will you tend to bounce things outside far more than you should. Spiller's strength is will prove to be far superior to Best and that is what is going to separate them. Spiller will be a bell cow, Best will be a productive member of a time share. 2010 is the only season where Best will outproduce Spiller. We are talking a RB1 vs a low end RB2. Bank it.

The Spiller/Best debate in this topic is based on 2010 productionThe OP said:

I loved this kid in college and like most have gotten down on his prospects for the 2010 season, but are we all wrong on this one?

So by saying Spiller wins the debate, and saying "2010 is the only season where Best will outproduce Spiller." you're contradicting yourself.

Actually, this topic wasn't started as a Spiller/Best debate, but the typical hijack happened. On the original topic of whether Spiller will be the man in Buffalo in 2010, I'd have to say no. I think it will be a time share similar to Taylor/Drew when Fred was getting more of the carries and Drew was getting more of the receptions.

 

[Carolina Hustler]

Spiller is the guy in the Best/Spiller debate and its not that close. Just because Best is more shifty than Spiller, it doesn't mean he has better instincts and vision. Spiller's style is a little more straight forward which tends to work better on the NFL level. Bush averaged nearly 9 ypc in college, but when u can be dragged down by and hand tackle (not an arm) like Best will you tend to bounce things outside far more than you should. Spiller's strength is will prove to be far superior to Best and that is what is going to separate them. Spiller will be a bell cow, Best will be a productive member of a time share. 2010 is the only season where Best will outproduce Spiller. We are talking a RB1 vs a low end RB2. Bank it.

The Spiller/Best debate in this topic is based on 2010 productionThe OP said:

I loved this kid in college and like most have gotten down on his prospects for the 2010 season, but are we all wrong on this one?

So by saying Spiller wins the debate, and saying "2010 is the only season where Best will outproduce Spiller." you're contradicting yourself.

Actually, this topic wasn't started as a Spiller/Best debate, but the typical hijack happened. On the original topic of whether Spiller will be the man in Buffalo in 2010, I'd have to say no. I think it will be a time share similar to Taylor/Drew when Fred was getting more of the carries and Drew was getting more of the receptions.

I agree, the thread wasn't started as a Spiller vs. Best debate thread... But the Spiller vs. Best debate within was based on 2010 production.