Are We Starting To See a New Trend in RB Usage Emerge? (1 Viewer)

[TheDirtyWord]

If you look at Melvin Gordon's situation...he turned down a $10M/year contract.  In holding out...we've seen Austin Eckler emerge as a fine every down replacement.  Originally, the thought was that Eckler would share RB duties in somewhat of a timeshare with Justin Jackson.  But Eckler is on pace for 779 snaps.

• In Jacksonville, Leonard Fournette has played 169 of a possible 179 snaps.
  
• In Carolina, CMC has been off the field for exactly 3 plays.
  
• Saquon Barkley in his fist two games was in on 116 of 139 plays.
  
• Latavius Murray, a fairly solid pro throughout his career was brought in to play the 'Mark Ingram role' in the NO offense.  But thru 3 games, Kamara is playing 80% of the snaps. 
  
• Marlon Mack was a guy who was supposed to share the load with Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines...but he's on pace 752 snaps.  That # would have placed 5th in the NFL in 2018
  

One of the narratives in the lead up to Gordon's (and Zeke's) holdouts was the Todd Gurley contract and how less than 12 months after it was signed, was perceived as an albatross.  But when Gurley signed his deal, there was probably no more deserving RB to be awarded a top-level contract than him.

So are we starting to see teams ask the question - If the chances of us signing an RB to a 2nd contract, a lucrative contract at that, are low...should we simply use up the player as much as we can?  No sense in trying to spread out his workload (and career lifespan) over 8-10 years.

 

[zamboni]

Seems like you're using a small sample size - the vast majority of RB situations throughout the league have a heavy use of RBBC. In the situations above, CMC, Kamara and Barkley (and you can add Zeke now) are so good in all facets of the game that there is no reason to take them out. Mack is a bit of an outlier, but he's earned his workhorse role.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Seems like you're using a small sample size - the vast majority of RB situations throughout the league have a heavy use of RBBC. In the situations above, CMC, Kamara and Barkley (and you can add Zeke now) are so good in all facets of the game that there is no reason to take them out. Mack is a bit of an outlier, but he's earned his workhorse role.

Nick Chubb on pace for 869 snaps...

David Johnson is on pace for 950 snaps.

LeVeon Bell has not been on the field for 7 snaps in 2019.

That’s a quarter of the teams...

 

[Anarchy99]

If things are changing, it would be a new trend starting this year. In the 2000 season, there were 19 running backs that had 300 touches. Last year, there were only 4. The average over the past 5 seasons has been 5. I don't feel like dong a deeper dive to analyze that, but many teams utilize some sort of defined roles or specialists now. There may be a minor injury component embedded in there, but I am not sure that RB's get hurt anymore frequently than they did 20 years ago.

 

[zamboni]

Nick Chubb on pace for 869 snaps...

David Johnson is on pace for 950 snaps.

LeVeon Bell has not been on the field for 7 snaps in 2019.

That’s a quarter of the teams...

Fair point, but I think overall usage will level off as we get deeper into the season. A lot of these RBs barely played in the pre-season, so their legs are very fresh. 

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Fair point, but I think overall usage will level off as we get deeper into the season. A lot of these RBs barely played in the pre-season, so their legs are very fresh. 

And I understand that RB's take punishment so projecting a 3 game pace over 16 games isn't going to paint an accurate picture come New Years Day.

But - is there a scenario where the Colts pay Marlon Mack?  The Browns pay Nick Chubb?  The Bengals & Joe Mixon?  And so if in their long range planning, each of the teams is thinking  'no'...then why not overuse them if the alternative is limited?

 

[trader jake]

If there's any trend it may be more RBs holding out.

...until the CBA is amended (if?).  Running backs are definitely getting the short end of the stick with their contracts.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

If there's any trend it may be more RBs holding out.

...until the CBA is amended (if?).  Running backs are definitely getting the short end of the stick with their contracts.

If I'm Saquon Barkley - I hold out next year.  Scheduled to earn $8M (total) over the next two seasons.

 

[ty247]

Offenses are trending towards requiring running backs with the ability to run the ball at a high level, as well as pass catch and run routes at a high level.

The offenses require this combination of skill sets because they want to disguise their play calling, making defenses have to potentially defend both the run and pass, on any snap of the game.

Since the position now requires multiple skill sets, you've got fewer and fewer running backs that are capable of filling those skill sets. 

If you notice the running backs listed in this thread so far, are all running backs that have shown themselves capable of producing in both the run game and passing game at elite levels.

This is why we're seeing the trend in snap count increasing for players of that caliber.

 

[voiceofunreason]

If you look at Melvin Gordon's situation...he turned down a $10M/year contract.  In holding out...we've seen Austin Eckler emerge as a fine every down replacement.  Originally, the thought was that Eckler would share RB duties in somewhat of a timeshare with Justin Jackson.  But Eckler is on pace for 779 snaps.

• In Jacksonville, Leonard Fournette has played 169 of a possible 179 snaps.
  
• In Carolina, CMC has been off the field for exactly 3 plays.
  
• Saquon Barkley in his fist two games was in on 116 of 139 plays.
  
• Latavius Murray, a fairly solid pro throughout his career was brought in to play the 'Mark Ingram role' in the NO offense.  But thru 3 games, Kamara is playing 80% of the snaps. 
  
• Marlon Mack was a guy who was supposed to share the load with Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines...but he's on pace 752 snaps.  That # would have placed 5th in the NFL in 2018
  

One of the narratives in the lead up to Gordon's (and Zeke's) holdouts was the Todd Gurley contract and how less than 12 months after it was signed, was perceived as an albatross.  But when Gurley signed his deal, there was probably no more deserving RB to be awarded a top-level contract than him.

So are we starting to see teams ask the question - If the chances of us signing an RB to a 2nd contract, a lucrative contract at that, are low...should we simply use up the player as much as we can?  No sense in trying to spread out his workload (and career lifespan) over 8-10 years.

I don’t want hunk any team thinks about saving a player for years down the road except qb. It’s all about this weeks game.

If it’s anything beyond a blip on the stats I’d guess some teams don’t like tipping their hands on pass/run.

 

[TartanLion]

Feels like there has been a glut of highly talented all round RBs come through in the last 4 odd years, more so than in recent times before that. Perhaps that could explain the slight uptick ..

Gurley/Elliot/Gordon/Fournette/Johnson/Kamara/Barkley etc etc 

 

[Anarchy99]

I forgot to ask earlier . . . what exactly is being raised as the question here? That snap counts are up for first line RB's? Is that supposed to equate to more injuries or teams over using them? Wouldn't their actual workload be a better indicator of overuse? Theoritically, which would be more taxing, a RB that played 100% of snaps and touched the ball 18 times or the back that played 65% of the snaps and had 32 touches?

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I forgot to ask earlier . . . what exactly is being raised as the question here? That snap counts are up for first line RB's? Is that supposed to equate to more injuries or teams over using them? Wouldn't their actual workload be a better indicator of overuse? Theoritically, which would be more taxing, a RB that played 100% of snaps and touched the ball 18 times or the back that played 65% of the snaps and had 32 touches?

Ultimately, could we be seeing a swinging of the pendulum away from RBBC?

 

[Anarchy99]

Ultimately, could we be seeing a swinging of the pendulum away from RBBC?

Through 3 games, there are 10 RB's on pace to hit 300 touches over a 16-game season (with a few more just slightly off the pace). I am inclined to say no to your question, as that's only after 3 games and as we all know guys get nicked up the longer the season goes on. So sure, in the early going, in predominantly good weather, when guys are healthy it may appear that the usage rate may be up . . . but that's probably 8 or 10 guys that really look like bell cow backs. Once guys get some bumps and bruises, they may not see quite so many touches. If some guys are getting the rock a lot, I don't think that the majority of the league is trending that direction.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Interesting take on how teams look at their rbs going forward.  Former flex plays now just handcuffs at best.

 

[lod001]

I wondered the same. I can see this happening. You sign the RB out of college, pay him the rookie deal and use him up. Instead of paying the 2nd contract, you let him walk and draft a new RB. There are plenty of volunteers. Surprised it isn't already full blown policy. They are a lot of middle round RB picks playing are there not?

 

[ShamrockPride]

I wondered the same. I can see this happening. You sign the RB out of college, pay him the rookie deal and use him up. Instead of paying the 2nd contract, you let him walk and draft a new RB. There are plenty of volunteers. Surprised it isn't already full blown policy. They are a lot of middle round RB picks playing are there not?

Looking this way, but you have to think that's going to be a major point of contention with the next CBA, shortening the rookie RB deal.

 

[Milkman]

If I'm Saquon I'm def holding out next year.