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Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

In the meantime, as always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans

Player Page Link: Arian Foster Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

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[*]Consensus Member Projections

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[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

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Arian took a running game that had been stagnant and made it very productive. Having watched this team struggle to open holes for so long, I am not a believer that he was just in a good situation. Slaton managed to hit some home runs in 2008, but no one could find holes in 2009 until Foster came in at the very end of the year against some weaker defenses. That being said, there is a definite possibility that his carries could go down and his yards per carry could increase should Houston make a move to improve their line (as a homer, I kind of doubt it happens). At the very least, he will likely be spelled a little more this year. Both to keep him fresh and to see what they've got in Ben Tate. Overall, he should still be worth the #1 pick when compared to the current situations of the other two guys in consideration. Should AP and CJ find themselves with rookie QBs starting, this decision is a no brainer if it wasn't already. If both teams sign veterans, it becomes a little murky, but Foster's involvement in the passing game and his effectiveness as a goal line runner should provide confidence that he'll maintain elite production on a high powered offense. Not to mention his lower mileage than the other two guys.

300 carries, 1440 yds, 12 TD, 50 rec, 450 yds, 2 TD

 
'FF Ninja said:
Arian took a running game that had been stagnant and made it very productive. Having watched this team struggle to open holes for so long, I am not a believer that he was just in a good situation. Slaton managed to hit some home runs in 2008, but no one could find holes in 2009 until Foster came in at the very end of the year against some weaker defenses. That being said, there is a definite possibility that his carries could go down and his yards per carry could increase should Houston make a move to improve their line (as a homer, I kind of doubt it happens). At the very least, he will likely be spelled a little more this year. Both to keep him fresh and to see what they've got in Ben Tate. Overall, he should still be worth the #1 pick when compared to the current situations of the other two guys in consideration. Should AP and CJ find themselves with rookie QBs starting, this decision is a no brainer if it wasn't already. If both teams sign veterans, it becomes a little murky, but Foster's involvement in the passing game and his effectiveness as a goal line runner should provide confidence that he'll maintain elite production on a high powered offense. Not to mention his lower mileage than the other two guys.

300 carries, 1440 yds, 12 TD, 50 rec, 450 yds, 2 TD
Worth considering that in both 2008 and 2010 the Texans had a healthy O-line for mostly the whole season, while in 2009 they lost both starting guards fairly early in the season. I think with the addition of Butler (assuming they re-sign him as they mean to) and Wade Smith that they have some depth now at both guard and tackle which bodes better even if someone is injured.
 
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I believe that Brisiel, who is now our starting RG, stepped into the lineup in 2009 as an injury replacement, right? So that is a bit of a wash. Also, isn't Wade Smith currently the starter and Butler a long time reserve? I don't see how this is actually a change at all. I'll grant that the loss of Pitts in 2009 might have hurt a little, but that's it and he was not exactly Alan Faneca caliber anyway. I'd call our o-line serviceable at best. It is nowhere near an elite group. Foster should get credit for the run game rather than be seen as a product of a system.

 
I don't see any reason he can't come close to last year's numbers. The yardage and touchdowns both might drop off a tad, but he should still be a top RB, barring injury. Not only is he a dynamic runner, but he is an outstanding pass catcher (66 catches last year). It is easy to say he will be a one-year wonder, especially if you didn't see him play that much, but if you saw him play, you know he's the real deal.

 
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I don't think that Foster is a one year wonder. No reason to believe that he won't be a top 5 RB, since he is an excellent receiver and doesn't have any competition for a serious piece of the HOU running game. With CJ and ADP potentially having rookie QBs, I feel it's a no-brainer that Foster should be the #1 pick. If TEN or MIN brings in a decent veteran QB, then that could change. Anyway, Foster will not last past the 3rd pick of any draft this year.

290 car, 1350 yards rushing, 12 TD

55 rec, 450 yards receiving, 2 TD

 
I believe that Brisiel, who is now our starting RG, stepped into the lineup in 2009 as an injury replacement, right? So that is a bit of a wash. Also, isn't Wade Smith currently the starter and Butler a long time reserve? I don't see how this is actually a change at all. I'll grant that the loss of Pitts in 2009 might have hurt a little, but that's it and he was not exactly Alan Faneca caliber anyway. I'd call our o-line serviceable at best. It is nowhere near an elite group. Foster should get credit for the run game rather than be seen as a product of a system.
I want to say that in 2009 Brisiel was an injury replacement though I don't remember for who... and started the season. Brisiel was himself injured in game 5 and went on IR and replaced by Antoine Caldwell and Chris White. Pitts was lost for the year in game 2 and replaced by Kasey Studdard. My point is, in 2009 the Texans played 3/4 of the season with their guards being either the 3rd and 4th best guys on the depth chart... or the 4th and 5th if Brisiel was himself filling in for an injury. In contrast they played most of the 2008 and 2010 seasons with the guys they wanted to be out there. Brown was gone for the first 4 games in 2010 but Butler played well in his place. They platooned 3 guards but I believe went with the guy they wanted each week rather than it being out of consideration for injuries.My point then being, the Texans had a successful run game in 2008 and a very successful one in 2010. And they weren't successful in 2009 which is a year they had significant injuries on their O-line. I think the line definitely played a role. Slaton had a LOT of huge holes to run through in 2008. They weren't there in 2009, but the blocking was again much better in 2010. Yes Fosters deserves a share of the credit, but I think the run blocking in 2008 and 2010 both were quite good. So what does that mean for 2011? In my view it means that if they re-sign Butler, they have a good run blocking line and they also have a backup tackle and a backup guard who have shown they can step in and not have things drop off. Which is a positive for Foster's outlook.Edit to add: Found a Texans write up on the 2009 season, sounds like Brisiel was the starter going into 2009....
Season overview: The Texans started the same five players on the offensive line for all 16 games in 2008, and the Texans averaged the most yards per carry (4.3) and had the most passing (4,267) in team history.That entire starting lineup was intact at the start of the 2009 season, but the line’s continuity took a major hit in Week 2 when Pitts went down with a season-ending knee injury. Up to that point, Pitts had started all 114 games in Texans history. He had missed only seven of the team’s offensive snaps."It was a big adjustment all year long, because when you lose Chester, what you're losing is a big, physical player that handles three techniques and is very stout on the line of scrimmage,” head coach Gary Kubiak said. “He was a leader, also. So we started adjusting from Week 2 without Chester.”Pitts was joined on injured reserve a few weeks later by Brisiel, who injured his foot late in the fourth quarter at Arizona. Brisiel had started 25 consecutive games at right guard. White and rookie Antoine Caldwell teamed up to replace Brisiel over the remainder of the season; White started eight games and Caldwell started three. Studdard filled in for Pitts.Despite the injuries, the offensive line blocked well enough for quarterback Matt Schaub to throw for a league-high 4,770 passing yards, the sixth-highest total in NFL history. The line allowed only 25 sacks, fifth-fewest in the league, despite Schaub attempting a league-high 583 passes.The running game struggled, ranking 30th in the league with 92.2 yards per game, but the ground game improved in the final two games of the season. The offensive line helped the Texans to net 126 rushing yards in Week 16 at Miami and 144 yards in the season finale vs. New England.
 
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With no doubt Foster is top 3 overall pick but he will make me feel uneasy because there are some key questions that yet have to be answered.

Question 1: will Houston resign Vonta Leach, a valuable All-Pro fullback who creates big holes for Foster to run through? Last year Foster had 83 red zone opportunities and it is reasonable to assume Leach had a critical role in getting Foster the short yardage touchdowns.

Question 2: Houston is an annual revolving door for starting runningbacks. Evidence:

2010- Foster, 1616 yds, 16 td

2009- Slaton, 437 yds, 3 td and Moats, 390 yds, 4 td

2008- Slaton, 1282 yds, 9 td

2007- Dayne, 773 yds, 6 td

2006- Dayne, 612 yds, 5 td and Lundy 476 yds, 4 td

2005- D.Williams, 976 yds, 2 td

Question 3: Foster was undrafted while Tate was drafted in 2010 2nd round. Will Houston stick with Foster, who is the team's most talented rb, as the bellcow even though they used up a valuable 2nd rounder on Tate or will they give Tate a shot at some playing time to see if he was worthy of 2nd round?

Last year, Foster had 326 carries while other rbs rushed 60 times. A healthy Tate would likely take an additional 32 carries away (two more carries per game) from Foster to keep Foster fresh at end of the season. A healthy Daniels will take approximately 10 catches away from Foster.

With Leach on the team, stats:

Foster, 296 carries, 4.8 y/c, 1420 rush yd, 14 td, 50 rec, 425 rec yd, 2 td.

Without Leach on the team, stats:

Foster, 296 carries, 4.2 y/c, 1243 rush yd, 11 td, 50 rec, 425 rec yd, 2 td.

 
Arian Foster has revealed to the Sporting News that he played all of 2010 with a torn meniscus in his knee.Yes, the same Arian Foster that rushed for an NFL-leading 1,616 yards last season. Foster says he kept the injury secret out of fear of losing his job. Foster underwent surgery on his right knee in February, but it was billed as arthroscopic. If he can rush for 1,616 yards on just one good knee, it's scary to think what he might do with two.Source: Sporting NewsJul 17, 11:53 AM
 
You don't want to over think it here, Foster is the top fantasy RB in the game today. Things move quickly in the fantasy world and it doesn't matter if he was a 5th round pick just last year, he ran like the top back all season long.

We can come up with scenarios where Foster's upcoming season may not be elite, such as injuries to his offensive line. However, we can do that for every player in the league. I'm confident this is the top guy to take heading into this upcoming season in PPR and Non PPR leagues.

1350 yards and 12 Td's

51 receptions for 535 yards and 2 td's

 
Arian Foster has revealed to the Sporting News that he played all of 2010 with a torn meniscus in his knee.Yes, the same Arian Foster that rushed for an NFL-leading 1,616 yards last season. Foster says he kept the injury secret out of fear of losing his job. Foster underwent surgery on his right knee in February, but it was billed as arthroscopic. If he can rush for 1,616 yards on just one good knee, it's scary to think what he might do with two.Source: Sporting NewsJul 17, 11:53 AM
Maybe some team could have drafted this guy? Could be a very minor(but painful) tear.
 
Foster is still in a great situation with a productive QB at the helm, stud wideout out wide, and a zone blocking scheme that his style fits perfectly. Will he do what he did last season?

With a healthy Ben Tate back in the fold there's no reason to overwork Foster. Obviously, Foster is the clear-cut starter, but there's no reason for him to get 300-plus carries. It was character issues that helped Foster go undrafted in 2009 and missed meetings that caused a benching last year. Hopefully he'll be able to handle a reduced workload.

I’m not going to predict another career year. The odds of that are darn slim, but when you cut into his numbers from last season they still are pretty good.

Rushing Attempts 293 Yards 1,376 TDs 14

Receptions 65 Yards 562 TDs 2

Totals: Yards 1,938 TDs 16

 
You gotta put him in the100/TD each week bin and then add some for receptions. I do think Tate will see some time but nothing to get down on Foster about. He's tough, played with a torn meniscus last year, lots of talent around him, and a coach in Kubiak that has to make the playoffs.

He is the type of back who can explode for 25-30+ points many weeks and that is something that is hard to find.

300-1,500-12TDs, 48rec-350-3TDs

1,850 yds and 15 TDs.

 
You gotta put him in the100/TD each week bin and then add some for receptions. I do think Tate will see some time but nothing to get down on Foster about. He's tough, played with a torn meniscus last year, lots of talent around him, and a coach in Kubiak that has to make the playoffs. He is the type of back who can explode for 25-30+ points many weeks and that is something that is hard to find. 300-1,500-12TDs, 48rec-350-3TDs1,850 yds and 15 TDs.
He's a better receiver than your giving credit for. 8.9 ypc in college, 9.4 ypc in the nfl. (you have him at 7.3 ypc)He's the complete package. I think some people are over thinking it with this guy. Watch him play. He's a top 10 running back for real life purposes (that might be selling him low). For fantasy I wouldn't want anyone else. Basically reiterating everyone else, the o-line qb wr's and te on his team will help keep defenses from keying on him. If the Texans defense improves at all, he should have more leads to milk, so even if Tate takes some work away, there could be more carries to go around leaving with Foster around 320 anyways. This guy is also a threat for 20+ td's. And his fantasy playoffs weeks 14-16 : @ bengals, vs panthers, @ colts. Of course things change from year to year, but there's not a whole lot there to scare anyone. Overall, the schedule the Texans face isn't that imposing. 315 carries, 1450 , 50 rec, 450 rec yards, 15 total tds
 
You gotta put him in the100/TD each week bin and then add some for receptions. I do think Tate will see some time but nothing to get down on Foster about. He's tough, played with a torn meniscus last year, lots of talent around him, and a coach in Kubiak that has to make the playoffs. He is the type of back who can explode for 25-30+ points many weeks and that is something that is hard to find. 300-1,500-12TDs, 48rec-350-3TDs1,850 yds and 15 TDs.
He's a better receiver than your giving credit for. 8.9 ypc in college, 9.4 ypc in the nfl. (you have him at 7.3 ypc)He's the complete package. I think some people are over thinking it with this guy. Watch him play. He's a top 10 running back for real life purposes (that might be selling him low). For fantasy I wouldn't want anyone else. Basically reiterating everyone else, the o-line qb wr's and te on his team will help keep defenses from keying on him. If the Texans defense improves at all, he should have more leads to milk, so even if Tate takes some work away, there could be more carries to go around leaving with Foster around 320 anyways. This guy is also a threat for 20+ td's. And his fantasy playoffs weeks 14-16 : @ bengals, vs panthers, @ colts. Of course things change from year to year, but there's not a whole lot there to scare anyone. Overall, the schedule the Texans face isn't that imposing. 315 carries, 1450 , 50 rec, 450 rec yards, 15 total tds
MOP 1850-15TDsYou-1,900-15 TDs;) I agree he has big upside in the passing game but the system allows it. I'm not sure Foster is as explosive on other teams. When youi say toal back, I think of a back that could do it anywhere. I like Foster a lot but I also am realistic tht several RBs would love to play in this offense. I own him and he has a ceiling somewhere up there in the 2,200-2,400 total yd range and maybe 20+ TDs but again I don't know that Houston will want to burn the guy out. 150 total yds a week is on the table here for sure.
 
Any thoughts on if the loss of Leach will hurt Foster's production this season?
It's far from a perfect comparison, but Tomlinson's rushing ypc after Lorenzo Neal left SD went from 4.94 to 3.57.
I forget where Neal went afterwards.
On August 12, 2008 the Baltimore Ravens signed Neal to a one year contract.Neal was signed by the Oakland Raiders on May 8, 2009. He was waived/injured on August 19 to make room for safety Rashad Baker and subsequently reverted to injured reserve. He was released with an injury settlement on August 26.He spent the rest of the 2009-10 season out of football.
 
Does the hammy injury cause any concern now for those about to draft?
Not much, no. A lot of players deal with hamstring issues in training camp, I think it's part of getting in football shape. Yes, they can linger, but I don't plan to worry much until I hear some indication they think it will take more than a week or so.
 

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