Arian Foster (1 Viewer)

[Carolina Hustler]

Sorry...mixed you up with someone else who had been "hating" on Foster ...there are a few. I guess I really need to not drink and post BTW I used to live in the Emerald Lake Golf course neighborhood right by you, so be nice to a nieghbor please

LOL, not intending to be unfriendly, sorry if it sounded that way..

 

[Mark Wimer]

Here's what I don't get:

Tons of love for A.Foster in this thread. TONS!

Yet when I just checked out the most recent FBG expert redraft rankings for RBs only in a PPR league, only 1 of the 10 staff members that has RB PPR rankings up in the last 7 days has him inside the top 20.

That's right. 9 of 10 have him 22nd or worse.

And 7 of 10 have him 27th or worse.

And 5 have him 31st or worse.

Is this...

(A) they don't agree with what seem to be a ton of Shark Forum Posters? And thus, the Shark Pool may be getting way ahead of itself?

OR...

(B) they just re-submit their rankings without really looking at them - ie, they like Foster, but have failed to update their rankings?

I can't speak for everyone, but as I am one of the less-enthused rankers of Foster, I'll respond.1. I updated all my rankings and projections as of August 23rd, at every position and the overall.

2. I didn't just "refresh" them, I ground through each fantasy worthy player at each position for each team and reworked the numbers to reflect injury situations, camp battles and etc.

3. Referring to Houston specifically, here's where I see Foster and Slaton as of the 23rd:

Foster 200-225/800-900 yards/6-7 TDs rushing with 37-40/300-350/0-1 TDs receiving (he's in a PPR tier from Cedric Benson to Darren Sproles (all within 10 FP of each other from 30-37 on my board))

Slaton 100-125/400-500 yards/3-4 TDs with 20-25/180-250/0-1 TDs receiving (out of my top 50, in a tier with Jerious Norwood, Toby Gerhart and Brian Westbrook from 55-58)

Last year as a team, the Texans put up 425/1,475/13 rushing.

4 backs had 50+ carries last year, and Schaub had 48, the wide receivers had 9 attempts between the top 3.

Assuming that between them Jermiah Johnson, Chris Henry and Vonta Leach handle between 70-100 carries for 250-400 yards in bit roles, we get roughly between 430 and 510 carries from my set of team projections - a slight-to- increase over last year's 425 (which was 20th in the NFL). The above spread would be somewhere in the upper half of the league, based on last year's spread of the top 16 teams (438-607 rushes).

I think that my projections for Houston are well within reason, as is my projection/ranking of Foster in this probable RBBC.

.

 

[Doug B]

I would say this is a medium experienced league - If I didnt snag him at 4.1 he may have fallen another rd or so....people are not going crazy yet.

I tell ya ... I don't know if my league-mates and I are smart or dumb about Foster. I do know that too many of us are looking at the same info sources, though

 

[Koya]

Here's what I don't get:

Tons of love for A.Foster in this thread. TONS!

Yet when I just checked out the most recent FBG expert redraft rankings for RBs only in a PPR league, only 1 of the 10 staff members that has RB PPR rankings up in the last 7 days has him inside the top 20.

That's right. 9 of 10 have him 22nd or worse.

And 7 of 10 have him 27th or worse.

And 5 have him 31st or worse.

Is this...

(A) they don't agree with what seem to be a ton of Shark Forum Posters? And thus, the Shark Pool may be getting way ahead of itself?

OR...

(B) they just re-submit their rankings without really looking at them - ie, they like Foster, but have failed to update their rankings?

I can't speak for everyone, but as I am one of the less-enthused rankers of Foster, I'll respond.1. I updated all my rankings and projections as of August 23rd, at every position and the overall.

2. I didn't just "refresh" them, I ground through each fantasy worthy player at each position for each team and reworked the numbers to reflect injury situations, camp battles and etc.

3. Referring to Houston specifically, here's where I see Foster and Slaton as of the 23rd:

Foster 200-225/800-900 yards/6-7 TDs rushing with 37-40/300-350/0-1 TDs receiving (he's in a PPR tier from Cedric Benson to Darren Sproles (all within 10 FP of each other from 30-37 on my board))

Slaton 100-125/400-500 yards/3-4 TDs with 20-25/180-250/0-1 TDs receiving (out of my top 50, in a tier with Jerious Norwood, Toby Gerhart and Brian Westbrook from 55-58)

Last year as a team, the Texans put up 425/1,475/13 rushing.

4 backs had 50+ carries last year, and Schaub had 48, the wide receivers had 9 attempts between the top 3.

Assuming that between them Jermiah Johnson, Chris Henry and Vonta Leach handle between 70-100 carries for 250-400 yards in bit roles, we get roughly between 430 and 510 carries from my set of team projections - a slight-to- increase over last year's 425 (which was 20th in the NFL). The above spread would be somewhere in the upper half of the league, based on last year's spread of the top 16 teams (438-607 rushes).

I think that my projections for Houston are well within reason, as is my projection/ranking of Foster in this probable RBBC.

.

This is an interesting piece - because those of us that see more value in Foster believe that he is in line (or at least has the better chance) to get a lion share of the carries, especially around the goal. So lets say those of us on the bandwagon or even a bit correct. Health (and no fumbles) permitting, it is hardly a stretch to go from Wimer's 800-900 yards to say 1000-1100 and the 6-7 TDs to go to 8-10.

Even on the lower end of that more aggressive projection, we are talking 1000 yards and 8 TDs - a total well within reason IF Foster gets a bit more carries than some believe on a team that has a great offense and other than last year, produced some great RB years for fantasy with Slaton and Dom Davis in the not so distant past.

1000 yards rushing, a hundred or so receiving and 8-9 Total TDs would make for a very nice season, and most would admit the ceiling can go up a bit from there.

Of course, all this could be for naught - the guy is unproven over the course of a season, there are other ball carriers should he falter and of course, health is never a guarantee.

 

[thehornet]

Here's what I don't get:

Tons of love for A.Foster in this thread. TONS!

Yet when I just checked out the most recent FBG expert redraft rankings for RBs only in a PPR league, only 1 of the 10 staff members that has RB PPR rankings up in the last 7 days has him inside the top 20.

That's right. 9 of 10 have him 22nd or worse.

And 7 of 10 have him 27th or worse.

And 5 have him 31st or worse.

Is this...

(A) they don't agree with what seem to be a ton of Shark Forum Posters? And thus, the Shark Pool may be getting way ahead of itself?

OR...

(B) they just re-submit their rankings without really looking at them - ie, they like Foster, but have failed to update their rankings?

I can't speak for everyone, but as I am one of the less-enthused rankers of Foster, I'll respond.1. I updated all my rankings and projections as of August 23rd, at every position and the overall.

2. I didn't just "refresh" them, I ground through each fantasy worthy player at each position for each team and reworked the numbers to reflect injury situations, camp battles and etc.

3. Referring to Houston specifically, here's where I see Foster and Slaton as of the 23rd:

Foster 200-225/800-900 yards/6-7 TDs rushing with 37-40/300-350/0-1 TDs receiving (he's in a PPR tier from Cedric Benson to Darren Sproles (all within 10 FP of each other from 30-37 on my board))

Slaton 100-125/400-500 yards/3-4 TDs with 20-25/180-250/0-1 TDs receiving (out of my top 50, in a tier with Jerious Norwood, Toby Gerhart and Brian Westbrook from 55-58)

Last year as a team, the Texans put up 425/1,475/13 rushing.

4 backs had 50+ carries last year, and Schaub had 48, the wide receivers had 9 attempts between the top 3.

Assuming that between them Jermiah Johnson, Chris Henry and Vonta Leach handle between 70-100 carries for 250-400 yards in bit roles, we get roughly between 430 and 510 carries from my set of team projections - a slight-to- increase over last year's 425 (which was 20th in the NFL). The above spread would be somewhere in the upper half of the league, based on last year's spread of the top 16 teams (438-607 rushes).

I think that my projections for Houston are well within reason, as is my projection/ranking of Foster in this probable RBBC.

.

you are looking backward when you should be looking forward. last year was a mess, this year it is established. Slaton was already determined the backup and he was fighting for KR duties and that was BEFORE he had turf toe. You pretty much have Foster with a YPC estimate of between 3.5-4 based on your rushing attempts above. Considering he averaged 4.8 ypc last year, yeah you could say I am definitely confused by your ranking of not just Foster, but the entire houston backfield in general.

 

[humpback]

Here's what I don't get:

Tons of love for A.Foster in this thread. TONS!

Yet when I just checked out the most recent FBG expert redraft rankings for RBs only in a PPR league, only 1 of the 10 staff members that has RB PPR rankings up in the last 7 days has him inside the top 20.

That's right. 9 of 10 have him 22nd or worse.

And 7 of 10 have him 27th or worse.

And 5 have him 31st or worse.

Is this...

(A) they don't agree with what seem to be a ton of Shark Forum Posters? And thus, the Shark Pool may be getting way ahead of itself?

OR...

(B) they just re-submit their rankings without really looking at them - ie, they like Foster, but have failed to update their rankings?

I can't speak for everyone, but as I am one of the less-enthused rankers of Foster, I'll respond.1. I updated all my rankings and projections as of August 23rd, at every position and the overall.

2. I didn't just "refresh" them, I ground through each fantasy worthy player at each position for each team and reworked the numbers to reflect injury situations, camp battles and etc.

3. Referring to Houston specifically, here's where I see Foster and Slaton as of the 23rd:

Foster 200-225/800-900 yards/6-7 TDs rushing with 37-40/300-350/0-1 TDs receiving (he's in a PPR tier from Cedric Benson to Darren Sproles (all within 10 FP of each other from 30-37 on my board))

Slaton 100-125/400-500 yards/3-4 TDs with 20-25/180-250/0-1 TDs receiving (out of my top 50, in a tier with Jerious Norwood, Toby Gerhart and Brian Westbrook from 55-58)

Last year as a team, the Texans put up 425/1,475/13 rushing.

4 backs had 50+ carries last year, and Schaub had 48, the wide receivers had 9 attempts between the top 3.

Assuming that between them Jermiah Johnson, Chris Henry and Vonta Leach handle between 70-100 carries for 250-400 yards in bit roles, we get roughly between 430 and 510 carries from my set of team projections - a slight-to- increase over last year's 425 (which was 20th in the NFL). The above spread would be somewhere in the upper half of the league, based on last year's spread of the top 16 teams (438-607 rushes).

I think that my projections for Houston are well within reason, as is my projection/ranking of Foster in this probable RBBC.

.

2 points- - you said you did this update on the 23rd- do you anticipate his ranking changing now after the Dallas game?

- IF you are going to look backwards and use last year's numbers as your base, why not consider 2008 as well, when Slaton put up big numbers? I know it's another year behind, but it's only 1 year and the circumstances are basically the same.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

Assuming that between them Jermiah Johnson, Chris Henry and Vonta Leach handle between 70-100 carries for 250-400 yards in bit roles, we get roughly between 430 and 510 carries from my set of team projections - a slight-to- increase over last year's 425 (which was 20th in the NFL). The above spread would be somewhere in the upper half of the league, based on last year's spread of the top 16 teams (438-607 rushes).

I think that my projections for Houston are well within reason, as is my projection/ranking of Foster in this probable RBBC.

.

This is where you lose me in your projections. Last year was a mess. Between injuries and the rotating starter, Houston had 4 RBs with carries. With the roles appearing clearer and unless you are projecting injuries, why would you assume 5 would get carries this year?

In addition, if you go through the game logs, you'll see that the 3rd , 4th, and 5th RBs in each game got 8 carries for 24 yards for the entire year. Again, unless you are projecting the same kind of instability this year, it seems absurd to project 70-100 carries for those players.

 

[Mark Wimer]

Assuming that between them Jermiah Johnson, Chris Henry and Vonta Leach handle between 70-100 carries for 250-400 yards in bit roles, we get roughly between 430 and 510 carries from my set of team projections - a slight-to- increase over last year's 425 (which was 20th in the NFL). The above spread would be somewhere in the upper half of the league, based on last year's spread of the top 16 teams (438-607 rushes).

I think that my projections for Houston are well within reason, as is my projection/ranking of Foster in this probable RBBC.

.

This is where you lose me in your projections. Last year was a mess. Between injuries and the rotating starter, Houston had 4 RBs with carries. With the roles appearing clearer and unless you are projecting injuries, why would you assume 5 would get carries this year?

In addition, if you go through the game logs, you'll see that the 3rd , 4th, and 5th RBs in each game got 8 carries for 24 yards for the entire year. Again, unless you are projecting the same kind of instability this year, it seems absurd to project 70-100 carries for those players.

First of all, it is not "absurd" to project some level of carries for the backup RBs - if the Texans blow some folks out and need to run out the clock, etc. etc. Also, though you can't predict injuries, it is fair to say that Slaton has been far from rugged in the injury department, and also he has been in the doghouse for fumbles in the past (and put the ball on the ground on the goal line during preseason already). Combining Slaton's two downside risks (injuries, fumbles) and I think it is reasonable to expect him to miss at least parts of some games this coming season. Secondly, I did project an uptick in carries for the team this year, partly due to the increased clarity of Foster as the lead back in the committee - I believe that Foster will see much more work this year than last, obviously. However, the trend in the league is to share the work around, and Houston hasn't hesitated to do that in the past.

If anything, I may have been too generous with my upside of 510 carries for the team (that'd be a top-5 finish most years as far as number of carries).

I simply don't see how Foster boosters get him into top-20 or better range. If he does hit that level of production, he'll be a huge find, but IMO he's a decent RB 3 with RB 2 upside/best case - not an RB 2 with RB 1 upside/best case.

 

[Tango]

1. I updated all my rankings and projections as of August 23rd, at every position and the overall.

Time to update your projections. Start by watching the Cowboys game and add up the yards Foster amassed after contact. Then a good discussion can be had. Yes, 1 preseason game can make a difference when the '09 sample size was small. Some have him ahead of Benson. I dont go that far b/c Foster will always be 2-3 fumbles away from losing his job and then another 1 fumble away by Slaton to have Foster get that same job back. All of the other risks you mention; a Slaton resurgence, a Leach-turning-into-LeronMcClain'08-routine, using '08 as "par" for this team or a J Johnson rise all seem highly unlikely. Watch the Dallas tape for Exhibit A on why J Johnson isnt in the same world as Foster.

 

[jon_mx]

Is Foster Country ok?

 

[Mark Wimer]

Here's what I don't get:

Tons of love for A.Foster in this thread. TONS!

Yet when I just checked out the most recent FBG expert redraft rankings for RBs only in a PPR league, only 1 of the 10 staff members that has RB PPR rankings up in the last 7 days has him inside the top 20.

That's right. 9 of 10 have him 22nd or worse.

And 7 of 10 have him 27th or worse.

And 5 have him 31st or worse.

Is this...

(A) they don't agree with what seem to be a ton of Shark Forum Posters? And thus, the Shark Pool may be getting way ahead of itself?

OR...

(B) they just re-submit their rankings without really looking at them - ie, they like Foster, but have failed to update their rankings?

I can't speak for everyone, but as I am one of the less-enthused rankers of Foster, I'll respond.1. I updated all my rankings and projections as of August 23rd, at every position and the overall.

2. I didn't just "refresh" them, I ground through each fantasy worthy player at each position for each team and reworked the numbers to reflect injury situations, camp battles and etc.

3. Referring to Houston specifically, here's where I see Foster and Slaton as of the 23rd:

Foster 200-225/800-900 yards/6-7 TDs rushing with 37-40/300-350/0-1 TDs receiving (he's in a PPR tier from Cedric Benson to Darren Sproles (all within 10 FP of each other from 30-37 on my board))

Slaton 100-125/400-500 yards/3-4 TDs with 20-25/180-250/0-1 TDs receiving (out of my top 50, in a tier with Jerious Norwood, Toby Gerhart and Brian Westbrook from 55-58)

Last year as a team, the Texans put up 425/1,475/13 rushing.

4 backs had 50+ carries last year, and Schaub had 48, the wide receivers had 9 attempts between the top 3.

Assuming that between them Jermiah Johnson, Chris Henry and Vonta Leach handle between 70-100 carries for 250-400 yards in bit roles, we get roughly between 430 and 510 carries from my set of team projections - a slight-to- increase over last year's 425 (which was 20th in the NFL). The above spread would be somewhere in the upper half of the league, based on last year's spread of the top 16 teams (438-607 rushes).

I think that my projections for Houston are well within reason, as is my projection/ranking of Foster in this probable RBBC.

.

you are looking backward when you should be looking forward. last year was a mess, this year it is established. Slaton was already determined the backup and he was fighting for KR duties and that was BEFORE he had turf toe. You pretty much have Foster with a YPC estimate of between 3.5-4 based on your rushing attempts above. Considering he averaged 4.8 ypc last year, yeah you could say I am definitely confused by your ranking of not just Foster, but the entire houston backfield in general.

Hmmm, you criticize me for looking backward and then you criticize for not projecting forward Foster's 4.8 yards per carry last year to this year's paradigm. THAT confuses me...I'll respond further anyway. Foster only had 54 carries last year. That's too small a sample size to say that we can reasonably expect 4.8 yards per carry from him as (at least) a 2-down starter. The upside I have him figured for would be 900/200 = 4.5, while downside would be 800/225 = 3.5, btw. I think he's likely to be in the 4 - 4.2 range as a full time starter, though. But regardless of what his YPC is, I simply don't believe he'll be a 1,000+ yards rusher, although Koya makes a fine analysis/argument in his response to show how it could happen.

I don't dispute that it could happen, I just don't happen to believe that it is likely to happen. If I believed it were likely to happen, I would tweak Foster's projections upwards.

To the poster asking me if I am redoing my Houston projections in light of Foster's performance in the Dallas game - no, it didn't change my essential analysis of the team situation/likely RBBC in Houston. I had also already "figured in" Slaton being likely to get nicked and dinged given his track record (and fumble problems).

MW

 

[Mark Wimer]

1. I updated all my rankings and projections as of August 23rd, at every position and the overall.

Time to update your projections. Start by watching the Cowboys game and add up the yards Foster amassed after contact. Then a good discussion can be had. Yes, 1 preseason game can make a difference when the '09 sample size was small. Some have him ahead of Benson. I dont go that far b/c Foster will always be 2-3 fumbles away from losing his job and then another 1 fumble away by Slaton to have Foster get that same job back. All of the other risks you mention; a Slaton resurgence, a Leach-turning-into-LeronMcClain'08-routine, using '08 as "par" for this team or a J Johnson rise all seem highly unlikely. Watch the Dallas tape for Exhibit A on why J Johnson isnt in the same world as Foster.

I would argue that being swayed by the events of one preseason game often leads people to make excessively optimistic (or pessimistic) moves to their projections.I have dramatically moved Jahvid Best up my boards this preseason, for example - after lots of positive reports from training camp (first) and then his outstanding play to date. But his move up my boards was based on more than just one preseason game.

I have also moved Foster well up my board, but the team situation/dynamic/coaching proclivities there lead me to believe that he is not in as outstanding a situation as Best is vis-a-vis Foster's probable share of the workload in Houston.

My position is that Foster is best viewed as a RB 3 with RB 2 upside/best case, while Best is most likely a borderline RB 1 with an elite fantasy back upside (top 5 upside).

BTW, I have updated/tweaked my rankings/projections since the 23rd based on relevant information like Donte Stallworth's broken foot and etc. The 23rd was simply the last time I did so for the entire slate of teams/players.

 

[ShaqAttaq]

foster just went 4.02 in my 12 team ppr redraft. best went 4.07

 

[thehornet]

Here's what I don't get:

Tons of love for A.Foster in this thread. TONS!

Yet when I just checked out the most recent FBG expert redraft rankings for RBs only in a PPR league, only 1 of the 10 staff members that has RB PPR rankings up in the last 7 days has him inside the top 20.

That's right. 9 of 10 have him 22nd or worse.

And 7 of 10 have him 27th or worse.

And 5 have him 31st or worse.

Is this...

(A) they don't agree with what seem to be a ton of Shark Forum Posters? And thus, the Shark Pool may be getting way ahead of itself?

OR...

(B) they just re-submit their rankings without really looking at them - ie, they like Foster, but have failed to update their rankings?

I can't speak for everyone, but as I am one of the less-enthused rankers of Foster, I'll respond.1. I updated all my rankings and projections as of August 23rd, at every position and the overall.

2. I didn't just "refresh" them, I ground through each fantasy worthy player at each position for each team and reworked the numbers to reflect injury situations, camp battles and etc.

3. Referring to Houston specifically, here's where I see Foster and Slaton as of the 23rd:

Foster 200-225/800-900 yards/6-7 TDs rushing with 37-40/300-350/0-1 TDs receiving (he's in a PPR tier from Cedric Benson to Darren Sproles (all within 10 FP of each other from 30-37 on my board))

Slaton 100-125/400-500 yards/3-4 TDs with 20-25/180-250/0-1 TDs receiving (out of my top 50, in a tier with Jerious Norwood, Toby Gerhart and Brian Westbrook from 55-58)

Last year as a team, the Texans put up 425/1,475/13 rushing.

4 backs had 50+ carries last year, and Schaub had 48, the wide receivers had 9 attempts between the top 3.

Assuming that between them Jermiah Johnson, Chris Henry and Vonta Leach handle between 70-100 carries for 250-400 yards in bit roles, we get roughly between 430 and 510 carries from my set of team projections - a slight-to- increase over last year's 425 (which was 20th in the NFL). The above spread would be somewhere in the upper half of the league, based on last year's spread of the top 16 teams (438-607 rushes).

I think that my projections for Houston are well within reason, as is my projection/ranking of Foster in this probable RBBC.

.

you are looking backward when you should be looking forward. last year was a mess, this year it is established. Slaton was already determined the backup and he was fighting for KR duties and that was BEFORE he had turf toe. You pretty much have Foster with a YPC estimate of between 3.5-4 based on your rushing attempts above. Considering he averaged 4.8 ypc last year, yeah you could say I am definitely confused by your ranking of not just Foster, but the entire houston backfield in general.

Hmmm, you criticize me for looking backward and then you criticize for not projecting forward Foster's 4.8 yards per carry last year to this year's paradigm. THAT confuses me...I'll respond further anyway. Foster only had 54 carries last year. That's too small a sample size to say that we can reasonably expect 4.8 yards per carry from him as (at least) a 2-down starter. The upside I have him figured for would be 900/200 = 4.5, while downside would be 800/225 = 3.5, btw. I think he's likely to be in the 4 - 4.2 range as a full time starter, though. But regardless of what his YPC is, I simply don't believe he'll be a 1,000+ yards rusher, although Koya makes a fine analysis/argument in his response to show how it could happen.

I don't dispute that it could happen, I just don't happen to believe that it is likely to happen. If I believed it were likely to happen, I would tweak Foster's projections upwards.

To the poster asking me if I am redoing my Houston projections in light of Foster's performance in the Dallas game - no, it didn't change my essential analysis of the team situation/likely RBBC in Houston. I had also already "figured in" Slaton being likely to get nicked and dinged given his track record (and fumble problems).

MW

Did you just describe Shonn Greene? Of course not, you have him as a top 10 option among RB's even though you can draw many of the same parallels. liimited touches, propensity to get hurt, etc. Not to mention he plays on a worse offensive team and has a better backup. you still wonder why your ranking smells funny?eta: look at some of the scrubs you have in front of him:

darren mcfadden - a backup on one of the worst teams in the league

chester taylor - an old backup on a mediocre team that is going to pass a lot

thomas jones - another old backup on a terrible team who will likely get 150 carries tops.

portis - this guy looked like mother theresa out there last year.

i could go on, but i wont.

 

[timschochet]

I appreciate your logic Mark. Of course I hope you're wrong with regard to Foster! Even so, if he turns out to be, as you predict, a good RB3 with RB2 upside, I will personally be very satisfied in terms of where I drafted him (round 6). I'm guessing those who, in the past few days, have drafted him in 3rd round may be disappointed, though...

 

[jon_mx]

I would argue that being swayed by the events of one preseason game often leads people to make excessively optimistic (or pessimistic) moves to their projections.

I have dramatically moved Jahvid Best up my boards this preseason, for example - after lots of positive reports from training camp (first) and then his outstanding play to date. But his move up my boards was based on more than just one preseason game.

I have also moved Foster well up my board, but the team situation/dynamic/coaching proclivities there lead me to believe that he is not in as outstanding a situation as Best is vis-a-vis Foster's probable share of the workload in Houston.

My position is that Foster is best viewed as a RB 3 with RB 2 upside/best case, while Best is most likely a borderline RB 1 with an elite fantasy back upside (top 5 upside).

BTW, I have updated/tweaked my rankings/projections since the 23rd based on relevant information like Donte Stallworth's broken foot and etc. The 23rd was simply the last time I did so for the entire slate of teams/players.

I have been picking up Best late in round 2 in my drafts. You could gamble on wait until late 3, but I see first round talent there and I don't want to miss it. IMO, he is by far the safest RB pick for solid numbers at that point and with the best upside potential of the players available. There is still some concern with injury, but I think it is overblown.

 

[burritobrother]

I have also moved Foster well up my board, but the team situation/dynamic/coaching proclivities there lead me to believe that he is not in as outstanding a situation as Best is vis-a-vis Foster's probable share of the workload in Houston.

John McClain was all over Foster as the bellcow from early in the summer, when Tate and Slaton were at full health. I thought those reports were crazy, but he saw in OTAs what the rest of us are seeing this preseason. Foster is the real deal.

 

[treat88]

1. I updated all my rankings and projections as of August 23rd, at every position and the overall.

Time to update your projections. Start by watching the Cowboys game and add up the yards Foster amassed after contact. Then a good discussion can be had. Yes, 1 preseason game can make a difference when the '09 sample size was small. Some have him ahead of Benson. I dont go that far b/c Foster will always be 2-3 fumbles away from losing his job and then another 1 fumble away by Slaton to have Foster get that same job back. All of the other risks you mention; a Slaton resurgence, a Leach-turning-into-LeronMcClain'08-routine, using '08 as "par" for this team or a J Johnson rise all seem highly unlikely. Watch the Dallas tape for Exhibit A on why J Johnson isnt in the same world as Foster.

I would argue that being swayed by the events of one preseason game often leads people to make excessively optimistic (or pessimistic) moves to their projections.I have dramatically moved Jahvid Best up my boards this preseason, for example - after lots of positive reports from training camp (first) and then his outstanding play to date. But his move up my boards was based on more than just one preseason game.

I have also moved Foster well up my board, but the team situation/dynamic/coaching proclivities there lead me to believe that he is not in as outstanding a situation as Best is vis-a-vis Foster's probable share of the workload in Houston.

My position is that Foster is best viewed as a RB 3 with RB 2 upside/best case, while Best is most likely a borderline RB 1 with an elite fantasy back upside (top 5 upside).

BTW, I have updated/tweaked my rankings/projections since the 23rd based on relevant information like Donte Stallworth's broken foot and etc. The 23rd was simply the last time I did so for the entire slate of teams/players.

The bolded is VERY good advice.

 

[Mark Wimer]

I can't speak for everyone, but as I am one of the less-enthused rankers of Foster, I'll respond.

1. I updated all my rankings and projections as of August 23rd, at every position and the overall.

2. I didn't just "refresh" them, I ground through each fantasy worthy player at each position for each team and reworked the numbers to reflect injury situations, camp battles and etc.

3. Referring to Houston specifically, here's where I see Foster and Slaton as of the 23rd:

Foster 200-225/800-900 yards/6-7 TDs rushing with 37-40/300-350/0-1 TDs receiving (he's in a PPR tier from Cedric Benson to Darren Sproles (all within 10 FP of each other from 30-37 on my board))

Slaton 100-125/400-500 yards/3-4 TDs with 20-25/180-250/0-1 TDs receiving (out of my top 50, in a tier with Jerious Norwood, Toby Gerhart and Brian Westbrook from 55-58)

Last year as a team, the Texans put up 425/1,475/13 rushing.

4 backs had 50+ carries last year, and Schaub had 48, the wide receivers had 9 attempts between the top 3.

Assuming that between them Jermiah Johnson, Chris Henry and Vonta Leach handle between 70-100 carries for 250-400 yards in bit roles, we get roughly between 430 and 510 carries from my set of team projections - a slight-to- increase over last year's 425 (which was 20th in the NFL). The above spread would be somewhere in the upper half of the league, based on last year's spread of the top 16 teams (438-607 rushes).

I think that my projections for Houston are well within reason, as is my projection/ranking of Foster in this probable RBBC.

.

you are looking backward when you should be looking forward. last year was a mess, this year it is established. Slaton was already determined the backup and he was fighting for KR duties and that was BEFORE he had turf toe. You pretty much have Foster with a YPC estimate of between 3.5-4 based on your rushing attempts above. Considering he averaged 4.8 ypc last year, yeah you could say I am definitely confused by your ranking of not just Foster, but the entire houston backfield in general.

Hmmm, you criticize me for looking backward and then you criticize for not projecting forward Foster's 4.8 yards per carry last year to this year's paradigm. THAT confuses me...I'll respond further anyway. Foster only had 54 carries last year. That's too small a sample size to say that we can reasonably expect 4.8 yards per carry from him as (at least) a 2-down starter. The upside I have him figured for would be 900/200 = 4.5, while downside would be 800/225 = 3.5, btw. I think he's likely to be in the 4 - 4.2 range as a full time starter, though. But regardless of what his YPC is, I simply don't believe he'll be a 1,000+ yards rusher, although Koya makes a fine analysis/argument in his response to show how it could happen.

I don't dispute that it could happen, I just don't happen to believe that it is likely to happen. If I believed it were likely to happen, I would tweak Foster's projections upwards.

To the poster asking me if I am redoing my Houston projections in light of Foster's performance in the Dallas game - no, it didn't change my essential analysis of the team situation/likely RBBC in Houston. I had also already "figured in" Slaton being likely to get nicked and dinged given his track record (and fumble problems).

MW

Did you just describe Shonn Greene? Of course not, you have him as a top 10 option among RB's even though you can draw many of the same parallels. liimited touches, propensity to get hurt, etc. Not to mention he plays on a worse offensive team and has a better backup. you still wonder why your ranking smells funny?eta: look at some of the scrubs you have in front of him:

darren mcfadden - a backup on one of the worst teams in the league

chester taylor - an old backup on a mediocre team that is going to pass a lot

thomas jones - another old backup on a terrible team who will likely get 150 carries tops.

portis - this guy looked like mother theresa out there last year.

i could go on, but i wont.

Shonn Greene plays on a team that rushed the ball 607 times last year. 607/2,745/21 rushing TDs. And their passing game doesn't look much better during preseason than it did last year. I think you are confusing the overall offense of the Jets with their rushing game, which is excellent (4.5 yards per carry last year on 607 carries as a team).Darren McFadden hasn't been the most productive back to date, but he is on an offense that will be improved this year, and Michael Bush has a broken left thumb that has just been surgically repaired. I don't think that McFadden is the backup going into week one, and I do think he has the talent to seize and retain the top job in Oakland now that Bush is likely to be limited due to his broken thumb.

Chester Taylor is a far better runner between the tackles than Matt Forte, and he is an excellent receiver out of the backfield. As you note, that the Bears are likely to pass a lot which enhances Taylors' PPR value.

Thomas Jones has started every preseason game for the Chiefs. Thomas Jones rushed for career highs in yardage and TDs last season in New York. Below is what Chiefs' coach Todd Haley had to say about Jamaal Charles last week:

Kansas City Chiefs RB Thomas Jones is listed as the starter over RB Jamaal Charles because Jones has proven himself over a full season, according to head coach Todd Haley, reports The Kansas City Star's Adam Teicher. 'What he did last year ... it was an eight-game window or an eight-game sample that we saw,' Haley said of Charles. 'What we're pushing Jamaal to do is show that he can do that throughout a 16-game and hopefully-plus schedule. That's something that Thomas has proven through time.'

Portis has looked solid for most of training camp and preseason, and has virtually no competition for touches from the guys backing him up. Perhaps you should go back to my rankings and select other examples if you want to poke fun at my rankings, the ones you picked out are all easily defensible.

 

[Steed]

I have also moved Foster well up my board, but the team situation/dynamic/coaching proclivities there lead me to believe that he is not in as outstanding a situation as Best is vis-a-vis Foster's probable share of the workload in Houston.

John McClain was all over Foster as the bellcow from early in the summer, when Tate and Slaton were at full health. I thought those reports were crazy, but he saw in OTAs what the rest of us are seeing this preseason. Foster is the real deal.

John McClain also said Chris Taylor was going to be the lead back in 2008. And Tate and Slate were never fully healthy, Tate had a hammy pull and Slate was recovering from the neck surgery.

 

[Avery]

Perhaps you should go back to my rankings and select other examples if you want to poke fun at my rankings, the ones you picked out are all easily defensible.

Hey Mark - I for one appreciate you coming in here defending your position. Staffers joining in on the discussion in one of the things that makes this site so great. I realize a lot of thought goes into these rankings, but when a situation like Foster emerges where the landscape seems to be changing rather quickly in accordance to situation and thus ADP, do you think there is a certain internal resistance to make a large change in rankings at once, for it requires a major change in perspective and opinion on a player you have already somewhat pigeonholed? What I'm asking is eluding to what Bloom and Cecil talk a lot about on the Audible is that you have to be open to being wrong on a player.Obviously, I'm referring to Foster here but if it's not out of place in this thread, another example would be Austin. I don't know how to check back, but I'm guessing that most of the staffers slowly moved him up the rankings rather than a huge jump, slowly coming to grips with the new reality. So when you already have an opinion on a player in the NFL, in Foster's case as a rather pedestrian RB, I would think it would take a lot of evidence to change the pre-exisiting opinion.Does that ring true with you?

 

[Judge Smails]

As a Foster owner, I officially want the hype to die. The pundits like Mr. Wimer are right - Foster won't amount to much more than a RB3. I'm just hoping for a few points a game..

:tryingtobalancethelawsoffantasyfootballgods:

 

[thehornet]

to mark:

I'm not poking fun. I'm just questioning/debating the analysis behind the ranking of some of your players.

the fact that you are basing your projections for the 2010 version of Shonn Greene based on the better half (jones) that led the league in rushing doesn't make sense. it is flawed. why should we assume that greene is going to have the career-seson typ of output that jones had in 2009? Not to mention even if the Jets run 600 times again (which they wont't) greene will only get 300 of those max and likely 5 recptions.

couple that with the fact that you are unilaterally transferring that same logic over to a completely different team and i am just puzzled. do you really think that is a fair way of evaluating a players output? houstons backfield was filled with scrubs and injuries. anyhow, sorry you were so offended.

 

[shredhead]

:tryingtobalancethelawsoffantasyfootballgods:

Thank You!

 

[coolice]

I took him at 4.6 in 12 team league as my 3rd RB after Mathews and Best. 2 rookies and 2nd yr 1st times starter does scares me.

 

[thatguy]

Perhaps you should go back to my rankings and select other examples if you want to poke fun at my rankings, the ones you picked out are all easily defensible.

Not really. Just because you defended the rankings doesn't mean you defended the rankings well. I find a lot of the reasoning that you used to be flawed. Your defense of Green, and to a lesser extent Portis (while your defense of him was very hollow, I can't say it was flawed), over Foster are the only cases where I believe your reasoning to be sound. As for Taylor, McFadden, and Jones, you are defending 3 guys who are either in similar situations to Foster, or in worse situations. Every one of them will be in a timeshare.

Taylor is beginning the season as the backup. I personally believe that he is better than Forte and SHOULD, in time, earn the starting role. But he has an uphill battle to climb to prove this to the coaches. So, for now, he is on the wrong side of a committee. And even if he is given the starting job, Forte will still get a large piece of the pie.

McFadden will be sharing time with Bush (the thumb injury won't keep him out long, if at all). I've watched a fair amount of both players, and I've always been thoroughly impressed with Bush and underwhelmed by McFadden. Even if you believe McFadden is the better NFL RB (remember, what he showed in college is meaningless at this point), he is still very much entrenched in what is sure to be a full-blown committee. And to be honest, I can't see how anyone who has watched both players has come away more impressed by McFadden.

Jones will be sharing time with Charles, and while he may be the "starter", Charles will get a very large piece of the pie. Frankly, I don't consider that quote from Haley to help your case. So, they're pushing Jamal to show he can carry the load for a full 16 games... Hmm, sounds to me like he'll get as heavy a workload as he can handle. I see it as, best case for Jones, a 50-50 split.

Foster IS the coach-anointed workhorse RB in one of the NFL's better offenses. His coach has raved about him all offseason and into the preseason. He has been atop the depth chart all offseason and never once relinquished that position, even after the drafting of Ben Tate. His coach has stated that in an ideal offense, his lead back will get ~22 touches per game. Foster is that back. Lastly, you claim you have moved Best up as high as you have because his coaches raved about him AND because he has performed well on the field this preseason. Well, we can replace Best with Foster in that last statement, and it would still be just as true. While you may be more impressed with Best (you certainly wouldn't be alone), you'd look pretty silly trying to argue that Foster has NOT also looked very good so far.

I know this may seem like a rant, and I suppose it is. But, I find it truly head-scratching that 1) you have those 3 guys ahead of Foster and, 2) that you believe the defense you gave in the post above somehow gives full justification for said rankings.

 

[GregR_2]

As a Foster owner, I officially want the hype to die. The pundits like Mr. Wimer are right - Foster won't amount to much more than a RB3. I'm just hoping for a few points a game..:tryingtobalancethelawsoffantasyfootballgods:

Why would you want the hype on him to die down? If you think he's only a RB3 and people are hyping him as a RB1 or high RB2, you should be cackling with glee and taking trade offers.

 

[Ghost Rider]

As a Foster owner, I officially want the hype to die. The pundits like Mr. Wimer are right - Foster won't amount to much more than a RB3. I'm just hoping for a few points a game..:tryingtobalancethelawsoffantasyfootballgods:

Why would you want the hype on him to die down? If you think he's only a RB3 and people are hyping him as a RB1 or high RB2, you should be cackling with glee and taking trade offers.

I think your sarcasm detector is broken.

 

[Billy1x]

Only one problem. He is in Houston which seems to be the same as Denver. Either its the system or the field but backs in both stadiums continuously injure there bodies in some way. Unless he breaks the jinx he will not last very long. Sorry but that the tail of the tape.

 

[Mario Kart]

Again, his value is dependent on what you can get via a trade.

Right now, Foster is in the "untradeable" category. Either drafters reach for him in the 3rd and gamble big time. Or, they can get him in the 5th and call it "good value" but in dynasty leagues, you cannot trade him for 3rd round value players and possibly get 5th round quality players but that would be selling him low.

So, right now he is in the "no trade zone" unless you find an owner willing to gamble.

 

[Todem]

to mark:

I'm not poking fun. I'm just questioning/debating the analysis behind the ranking of some of your players.

the fact that you are basing your projections for the 2010 version of Shonn Greene based on the better half (jones) that led the league in rushing doesn't make sense. it is flawed. why should we assume that greene is going to have the career-seson typ of output that jones had in 2009? Not to mention even if the Jets run 600 times again (which they wont't) greene will only get 300 of those max and likely 5 recptions.

couple that with the fact that you are unilaterally transferring that same logic over to a completely different team and i am just puzzled. do you really think that is a fair way of evaluating a players output? houstons backfield was filled with scrubs and injuries. anyhow, sorry you were so offended.

My bust of the year.

 

[Carolina Hustler]

to mark:

I'm not poking fun. I'm just questioning/debating the analysis behind the ranking of some of your players.

the fact that you are basing your projections for the 2010 version of Shonn Greene based on the better half (jones) that led the league in rushing doesn't make sense. it is flawed. why should we assume that greene is going to have the career-seson typ of output that jones had in 2009? Not to mention even if the Jets run 600 times again (which they wont't) greene will only get 300 of those max and likely 5 recptions.

couple that with the fact that you are unilaterally transferring that same logic over to a completely different team and i am just puzzled. do you really think that is a fair way of evaluating a players output? houstons backfield was filled with scrubs and injuries. anyhow, sorry you were so offended.

My bust of the year.

Why do you think he'll bust? Unless he starts having trouble holding on to the ball, he seems like the perfect back for that system.. He tough and has decent speed, he has some moves... Good all around talent in my opinion. Not world breaking by any means, but talented enough to fill the role I think.

 

[Mortimer Ichabod]

I look at this guy as the next Priest Holmes. He's perfect for the one cut system they run and he will get a lot of yds and score a lot of TDs. He was a much better buy a couple weeks ago but now the secret is out. I look for him to finish above all but the most elite of talents in the league.

 

[DansRams]

Again, his value is dependent on what you can get via a trade.Right now, Foster is in the "untradeable" category. Either drafters reach for him in the 3rd and gamble big time. Or, they can get him in the 5th and call it "good value" but in dynasty leagues, you cannot trade him for 3rd round value players and possibly get 5th round quality players but that would be selling him low.So, right now he is in the "no trade zone" unless you find an owner willing to gamble.

Did we get rid of the 4th round?

 

[Doug B]

I have been picking up Best late in round 2 in my drafts. You could gamble on wait until late 3, but I see first round talent there and I don't want to miss it. IMO, he is by far the safest RB pick for solid numbers at that point and with the best upside potential of the players available. There is still some concern with injury, but I think it is overblown.

Interestingly enough, I had to reach for Foster at 2.04 (16th overall) to get him on my squad ... and yet Jahvid Best was still there at 4.04. I made Best my RB2.

 

[Carolina Hustler]

I have been picking up Best late in round 2 in my drafts. You could gamble on wait until late 3, but I see first round talent there and I don't want to miss it. IMO, he is by far the safest RB pick for solid numbers at that point and with the best upside potential of the players available. There is still some concern with injury, but I think it is overblown.

Interestingly enough, I had to reach for Foster at 2.04 (16th overall) to get him on my squad ... and yet Jahvid Best was still there at 4.04. I made Best my RB2.

how do you know you had to grab him 16th overall. how do you know he wouldn't have been there?and you're right, that's quite a reach..

 

[Hoosier16]

Again, his value is dependent on what you can get via a trade.Right now, Foster is in the "untradeable" category. Either drafters reach for him in the 3rd and gamble big time. Or, they can get him in the 5th and call it "good value" but in dynasty leagues, you cannot trade him for 3rd round value players and possibly get 5th round quality players but that would be selling him low.So, right now he is in the "no trade zone" unless you find an owner willing to gamble.

Did we get rid of the 4th round?

I think he's saying sellers want 3rd round value and buyers will only pay 5th.

 

[humpback]

Mark, I appreciate the rationale behind your rankings as well. Even if we may disagree, explanations are usually very helpful.

Any reason why you are disregarding 2008 in your analysis? Houston only ran the ball 7 more times in 2008 than they did in 2009, the system was basically identical, yet Slaton was the #7 RB in standard scoring (higher in PPR) leagues in 2008.

Isn't it possible that the RB breakdown last year was due to Slaton's injuries/ineffectiveness, and 2010 ends up closer to 2008 than 2009, when Slaton got 70% of the RB carries? If you look at the beginning of the season, Slaton was still getting 65% or so of the RB carries before he was pulled as well. I think, barring injury or horrible play, that Foster will get around 65-70% of the carries, Slaton 15-20%, and around 15% for the rest. That's about how they've handled it the past 2 seasons when they've had a healthy starting RB.

 

[Doug B]

Interestingly enough, I had to reach for Foster at 2.04 (16th overall) to get him on my squad ... and yet Jahvid Best was still there at 4.04. I made Best my RB2.

how do you know you had to grab him 16th overall. how do you know he wouldn't have been there?and you're right, that's quite a reach..

Post #218:

Foster just went 15th overall in my $350 WCOFF draft I am right now.

Not surprised to hear that. Just took him 16th overall (2.4) in the same draft I mentioned at the bottom of pg 3 of this thread. When I made the pick, half the draft cursed under their breaths. A few guys said out loud that Foster wouldn't have been there by my pick in the third.

It was a live draft with friends ... I know these guys, and the info sources they (and I) use. A few of us, as a group, knew that one of us was going to pull the trigger on Foster early. Had I passed, a few teams had him lined up to draft with early 3rd rounders. I didn't have a pick again until 3.09. Had I drafted from the 1.03 or 1.04 draft slot, I maybe could have tried to wait it out into the early third (but I know now even that would've lost me Foster).

 

[JAA]

I look at this guy as the next Priest Holmes. He's perfect for the one cut system they run and he will get a lot of yds and score a lot of TDs. He was a much better buy a couple weeks ago but now the secret is out. I look for him to finish above all but the most elite of talents in the league.

Im a Slaton homer, so take this FWIWFoster is a good talent, but not as good of a talent as Slaton. Forster lacks the initial burst as well as speed as Slaton.That said, Foster is playing much better football now than Slaton. Foster deserves to be the starter and will be productive in the Hou running attack. My guess would be at min 60% going to Foster unless something changes.However, I think if Slaton can figure out this fumbling issue, he will out perform Foster.

 

[burntorange]

Interesting stuff on Foster. Thought I'd chime in. From PPR point of view.

When I look at players, I definitely break down the numbers but I also watch the games. Yes, it's preseason, but Foster is seeing the cutback lanes, and he always falls forward when getting tackled. Rarely goes down on first contact. And the holes being created are nice. And I thought this before the Dallas game. Houston has a potent passing attack. No defense can stack the box versus them. This also makes life easier for Foster. Finally, Slaton has a toe injury. If this is turf toe, then Slaton's season is in rough shape. McFadden (discussed below) missed multiple games last year with turf toe, and in my opinion, other than an ACL, it's the worse injury for a player. No burst. That leaves J Johnson as the possible backup. Not seeing it. And Foster does catch passes. He caught 2 in the 2nd game in less than a half and caught 4 in the 3rd game in 2 and a half quarters. Houston likes to throw to their feature back.

McFadden is a different story. This guy always goes down at first contact. Trust me, I've had him 2 years in a row in one of my leagues, watched every game, and he doesn't break tackles. Plus he is fragile. Add on the fact that even with Jason Campbell, the passing game will not be getting respect from defenses, and it will be a stacked box. This could change but Campbell better start lighting it up with Miller and Murphy. Plus, Michael Bush is a true time share. He has a broken thumb, but he'll be back by week 2. McFadden will contribute with catches, but it isn't enough.

Thomas Jones is a good back. Much better than McFadden. But I don't see him catching the passes in this RBBC, which is a drawback. Plus, there is a fully healthy Jamaal Charles who set the all time NFL record for rushing yards in a 4 game span. Even if Charles doesn't start, this is 50-50 at best for Thomas Jones. Plus, it is guaranteed that defenses will stack the box versus Cassell. Larry Johnson wasn't able to get yards behind the OLine last year but Charles could. Was LJ totally washed up or was it a matter of making the first guy miss to get additional yards? Does Jones have the proper running style to succeed behind the KC Line?

Chester Taylor will catch a bunch of passes. But how many carries will Chicago have with Martz? I'm assuming a 50-50 share with Forte. Doesn't compete with a 60-70% workload Foster.

Last year, Slaton played in only 11 games. Based on normal PPR scoring, Slaton averaged 15.50 pts a game. This ranked 10th overall. One of those games he had 1 carry and 2 catches. Remove this game, where he got benched, and he averaged 17.0 pts a game. That would have been 6th. So, in a year where Slaton fumbled like a crazy man, was given very few goal line carries because of this, he was 10th overall when in your lineup. The year before, he averaged 17.24 points a game and was 9th overall. Is Slaton such a superior RB to Foster or is he a product of how Houston uses their main RB? I go with the 2nd choice. Plus, Foster WILL get the goal line carries and he does catch passes. So his upside is higher than what we've seen from Slaton, since Slaton frequently was taken out on the goal line. I can't think of any reason other than injury or fumblitis that Foster doesn't finish top 10 in this offense.

Thomas Jones averaged 15 pts a game last year in normal PPR scoring, which was lower than Slaton. And it took a season total of 331 carries to get there. He had 10 catches. This may have been a product of the NYJ gameplan but still. I don't see Jones getting 330 carries this year. At a 50-50 split, he'll be lucky to get 200 carries. How many points a game will this be? It won't be 15.

The only number I look at on McFadden is 3.4 yards a carry. He will have to be a PPR machine to contribute in a timeshare. Reggie Bush like PPR contribution. Michael Bush averages around 4.5-4.8 when he plays and will get goal line carries.

I like Chester Taylor for his value but I just can't put him in the same category as a feature RB in an offense that has put its feature RB in the top 10 2 years in a row.

Anyway, one man's thoughts.

 

[Mark Wimer]

Mark, I appreciate the rationale behind your rankings as well. Even if we may disagree, explanations are usually very helpful.

Any reason why you are disregarding 2008 in your analysis? Houston only ran the ball 7 more times in 2008 than they did in 2009, the system was basically identical, yet Slaton was the #7 RB in standard scoring (higher in PPR) leagues in 2008.

Isn't it possible that the RB breakdown last year was due to Slaton's injuries/ineffectiveness, and 2010 ends up closer to 2008 than 2009, when Slaton got 70% of the RB carries? If you look at the beginning of the season, Slaton was still getting 65% or so of the RB carries before he was pulled as well. I think, barring injury or horrible play, that Foster will get around 65-70% of the carries, Slaton 15-20%, and around 15% for the rest. That's about how they've handled it the past 2 seasons when they've had a healthy starting RB.

Hey humpback,The big difference between 2008 and 2009 (besides Slaton's injuries/ineffectiveness) was the below, IMO:

Matt Schaub

2007 HOU 11 192 289 2241 7.8 9 9 17 52 3.1 0 144 23

2008 HOU 11 251 380 3043 8.0 15 10 31 68 2.2 2 226 21

2009 HOU 16 396 583 4770 8.2 29 15 47 61 1.3 0 360 4

With as much improvement as Schaub showed last season (in both TDs and durability), I think that 420-440 carries (which they posted in both 08 and 09 (437 08 and 425 09) is a likely floor for the Foster/Slaton and company RBBC (my floor for the team is 430: 200 for Foster, 100 for Slaton, 60 for Schaub and the receivers; 70 for assorted backups/FBs). As I noted earlier, 510 (which is the upside case in my projections) is probably too optimistic, but I could see it happening - I just don't think it is likely. 470-80ish is probably a good bet for the final finish for the entire team, with foster at 225 and Slaton at 125, the rest basically the same.

There is definitely some uncertainty with the turf toe situation, which hasn't been (and won't be) resolved prior to regular season. Koya's best-case for Foster could certainly come true if Slaton is slow to rehab that sore toe (if it is a serious turf toe injury).

It's not that I am hating on Foster, I just don't see a good case for him being a top-12 fantasy RB. I think his upside is RB 2, with a RB 3 finish more likely (I know I'm repeating myself, just want to keep my actual stance on this guy clear).

 

[Ghost Rider]

I look at this guy as the next Priest Holmes. He's perfect for the one cut system they run and he will get a lot of yds and score a lot of TDs. He was a much better buy a couple weeks ago but now the secret is out. I look for him to finish above all but the most elite of talents in the league.

Im a Slaton homer, so take this FWIWFoster is a good talent, but not as good of a talent as Slaton. Forster lacks the initial burst as well as speed as Slaton.

That said, Foster is playing much better football now than Slaton. Foster deserves to be the starter and will be productive in the Hou running attack. My guess would be at min 60% going to Foster unless something changes.



However, I think if Slaton can figure out this fumbling issue, he will out perform Foster.

If only fumbling wasn't Slaton's only problem last year. He wasn't benched JUST because he was fumbling the ball; he was benched because he wasn't producing. Look up the numbers. They are as plain as day. Had Slaton been playing as well as he did in '08, he wouldn't have gotten benched. Maybe sat at times, but not outright benched.

 

[High Speed Reject]

Mark, I appreciate the rationale behind your rankings as well. Even if we may disagree, explanations are usually very helpful.

Any reason why you are disregarding 2008 in your analysis? Houston only ran the ball 7 more times in 2008 than they did in 2009, the system was basically identical, yet Slaton was the #7 RB in standard scoring (higher in PPR) leagues in 2008.

Isn't it possible that the RB breakdown last year was due to Slaton's injuries/ineffectiveness, and 2010 ends up closer to 2008 than 2009, when Slaton got 70% of the RB carries? If you look at the beginning of the season, Slaton was still getting 65% or so of the RB carries before he was pulled as well. I think, barring injury or horrible play, that Foster will get around 65-70% of the carries, Slaton 15-20%, and around 15% for the rest. That's about how they've handled it the past 2 seasons when they've had a healthy starting RB.

Hey humpback,The big difference between 2008 and 2009 (besides Slaton's injuries/ineffectiveness) was the below, IMO:

Matt Schaub

2007 HOU 11 192 289 2241 7.8 9 9 17 52 3.1 0 144 23

2008 HOU 11 251 380 3043 8.0 15 10 31 68 2.2 2 226 21

2009 HOU 16 396 583 4770 8.2 29 15 47 61 1.3 0 360 4

With as much improvement as Schaub showed last season (in both TDs and durability), I think that 420-440 carries (which they posted in both 08 and 09 (437 08 and 425 09) is a likely floor for the Foster/Slaton and company RBBC (my floor for the team is 430: 200 for Foster, 100 for Slaton, 60 for Schaub and the receivers; 70 for assorted backups/FBs). As I noted earlier, 510 (which is the upside case in my projections) is probably too optimistic, but I could see it happening - I just don't think it is likely. 470-80ish is probably a good bet for the final finish for the entire team, with foster at 225 and Slaton at 125, the rest basically the same.

There is definitely some uncertainty with the turf toe situation, which hasn't been (and won't be) resolved prior to regular season. Koya's best-case for Foster could certainly come true if Slaton is slow to rehab that sore toe (if it is a serious turf toe injury).

It's not that I am hating on Foster, I just don't see a good case for him being a top-12 fantasy RB. I think his upside is RB 2, with a RB 3 finish more likely (I know I'm repeating myself, just want to keep my actual stance on this guy clear).

If Kubiak can get a running game going, the likes of what we saw in Week 16 and 17 last season, and versus Dallas last Saturday, expect Schuab's numbers to decline.

Kubiak wants to run.

Slaton wasn't drafted to be the Texans featured, and should do very well in a 3rd down role. His neck, and scary hit he took in preseason game 1 against the Cards, are reasons for concern.

Foster is well worth a 3rd rounder at this point in the preseason. Where he finishes... only time will tell.

 

[humpback]

Mark, I appreciate the rationale behind your rankings as well. Even if we may disagree, explanations are usually very helpful.

Any reason why you are disregarding 2008 in your analysis? Houston only ran the ball 7 more times in 2008 than they did in 2009, the system was basically identical, yet Slaton was the #7 RB in standard scoring (higher in PPR) leagues in 2008.

Isn't it possible that the RB breakdown last year was due to Slaton's injuries/ineffectiveness, and 2010 ends up closer to 2008 than 2009, when Slaton got 70% of the RB carries? If you look at the beginning of the season, Slaton was still getting 65% or so of the RB carries before he was pulled as well. I think, barring injury or horrible play, that Foster will get around 65-70% of the carries, Slaton 15-20%, and around 15% for the rest. That's about how they've handled it the past 2 seasons when they've had a healthy starting RB.

Hey humpback,The big difference between 2008 and 2009 (besides Slaton's injuries/ineffectiveness) was the below, IMO:

Matt Schaub

2007 HOU 11 192 289 2241 7.8 9 9 17 52 3.1 0 144 23

2008 HOU 11 251 380 3043 8.0 15 10 31 68 2.2 2 226 21

2009 HOU 16 396 583 4770 8.2 29 15 47 61 1.3 0 360 4

With as much improvement as Schaub showed last season (in both TDs and durability), I think that 420-440 carries (which they posted in both 08 and 09 (437 08 and 425 09) is a likely floor for the Foster/Slaton and company RBBC (my floor for the team is 430: 200 for Foster, 100 for Slaton, 60 for Schaub and the receivers; 70 for assorted backups/FBs). As I noted earlier, 510 (which is the upside case in my projections) is probably too optimistic, but I could see it happening - I just don't think it is likely. 470-80ish is probably a good bet for the final finish for the entire team, with foster at 225 and Slaton at 125, the rest basically the same.

There is definitely some uncertainty with the turf toe situation, which hasn't been (and won't be) resolved prior to regular season. Koya's best-case for Foster could certainly come true if Slaton is slow to rehab that sore toe (if it is a serious turf toe injury).

It's not that I am hating on Foster, I just don't see a good case for him being a top-12 fantasy RB. I think his upside is RB 2, with a RB 3 finish more likely (I know I'm repeating myself, just want to keep my actual stance on this guy clear).

I'm not really talking about the number of total rushing attempts, I'm more talking about the % split. In 2008 and the beginning of 2009, Houston gave Slaton between 65-70% of all RB carries (and touches). Slaton was the #7 RB in 2008, even with only 432 team rushing attempts. He got 62% of the team rushing attempts in 2008, and was on pace for similar numbers as the starter to begin 2009, but you're only predicting Foster to have around 47% (225/475) of the team rushing attempts this year. Not sure why, when this hasn't been their MO the last two seasons. It's possible, I just think it's more likely that barring injury, Foster will get close to 60% of the total team rushing attempts, which gets him around 285 carries using your projected team numbers (which I don't have a problem with, they may actually be a tad high).

 

[ImTheScientist]

 

[red]

Mark, I appreciate the rationale behind your rankings as well. Even if we may disagree, explanations are usually very helpful.

Any reason why you are disregarding 2008 in your analysis? Houston only ran the ball 7 more times in 2008 than they did in 2009, the system was basically identical, yet Slaton was the #7 RB in standard scoring (higher in PPR) leagues in 2008.

Isn't it possible that the RB breakdown last year was due to Slaton's injuries/ineffectiveness, and 2010 ends up closer to 2008 than 2009, when Slaton got 70% of the RB carries? If you look at the beginning of the season, Slaton was still getting 65% or so of the RB carries before he was pulled as well. I think, barring injury or horrible play, that Foster will get around 65-70% of the carries, Slaton 15-20%, and around 15% for the rest. That's about how they've handled it the past 2 seasons when they've had a healthy starting RB.

Hey humpback,The big difference between 2008 and 2009 (besides Slaton's injuries/ineffectiveness) was the below, IMO:

Matt Schaub

2007 HOU 11 192 289 2241 7.8 9 9 17 52 3.1 0 144 23

2008 HOU 11 251 380 3043 8.0 15 10 31 68 2.2 2 226 21

2009 HOU 16 396 583 4770 8.2 29 15 47 61 1.3 0 360 4

With as much improvement as Schaub showed last season (in both TDs and durability), I think that 420-440 carries (which they posted in both 08 and 09 (437 08 and 425 09) is a likely floor for the Foster/Slaton and company RBBC (my floor for the team is 430: 200 for Foster, 100 for Slaton, 60 for Schaub and the receivers; 70 for assorted backups/FBs). As I noted earlier, 510 (which is the upside case in my projections) is probably too optimistic, but I could see it happening - I just don't think it is likely. 470-80ish is probably a good bet for the final finish for the entire team, with foster at 225 and Slaton at 125, the rest basically the same.

There is definitely some uncertainty with the turf toe situation, which hasn't been (and won't be) resolved prior to regular season. Koya's best-case for Foster could certainly come true if Slaton is slow to rehab that sore toe (if it is a serious turf toe injury).

It's not that I am hating on Foster, I just don't see a good case for him being a top-12 fantasy RB. I think his upside is RB 2, with a RB 3 finish more likely (I know I'm repeating myself, just want to keep my actual stance on this guy clear).

I'm not really talking about the number of total rushing attempts, I'm more talking about the % split. In 2008 and the beginning of 2009, Houston gave Slaton between 65-70% of all RB carries (and touches). Slaton was the #7 RB in 2008, even with only 432 team rushing attempts. He got 62% of the team rushing attempts in 2008, and was on pace for similar numbers as the starter to begin 2009, but you're only predicting Foster to have around 47% (225/475) of the team rushing attempts this year. Not sure why, when this hasn't been their MO the last two seasons. It's possible, I just think it's more likely that barring injury, Foster will get close to 60% of the total team rushing attempts, which gets him around 285 carries using your projected team numbers (which I don't have a problem with, they may actually be a tad high).

60% of 475 = 285 rushes touches.285/16 = 17.8 rushes per game...probably too high so adjust down to say 15.5

15.5 x 16 = 248 so let's just round off to 250

250 x 4.0-4.2 ypa = 1000 - 1050 rushing yards.

2-3 rec/game = 20-40 yards per game= 250-350 receiving yards for the season

so being conservative (53% of all rushing attempts and roughly splitting the difference between 430 - 510 total rushes for Houston) we get 1300 - 1400 total yards from scrimmage.

now depending if you feel he'll get goalline TDs, not get injured, not get benched, and the houston offense continues to be top (assumptions we routinely make on other RBs when projecting) he can anywhere from 8 - 14 total TDs given 315-325 total touches for the season. either way, 1000 + 7 (a conservative floor) = RB2 with RB1 potential.

i like foster. the challenge for me is to not overpay for him and grab him a round earlier (3.08) when i might be able to play of my league mates' ignorance and get him at 4.05

 

[Mark Wimer]

Mark, I appreciate the rationale behind your rankings as well. Even if we may disagree, explanations are usually very helpful.

Any reason why you are disregarding 2008 in your analysis? Houston only ran the ball 7 more times in 2008 than they did in 2009, the system was basically identical, yet Slaton was the #7 RB in standard scoring (higher in PPR) leagues in 2008.

Isn't it possible that the RB breakdown last year was due to Slaton's injuries/ineffectiveness, and 2010 ends up closer to 2008 than 2009, when Slaton got 70% of the RB carries? If you look at the beginning of the season, Slaton was still getting 65% or so of the RB carries before he was pulled as well. I think, barring injury or horrible play, that Foster will get around 65-70% of the carries, Slaton 15-20%, and around 15% for the rest. That's about how they've handled it the past 2 seasons when they've had a healthy starting RB.

Hey humpback,The big difference between 2008 and 2009 (besides Slaton's injuries/ineffectiveness) was the below, IMO:

Matt Schaub

2007 HOU 11 192 289 2241 7.8 9 9 17 52 3.1 0 144 23

2008 HOU 11 251 380 3043 8.0 15 10 31 68 2.2 2 226 21

2009 HOU 16 396 583 4770 8.2 29 15 47 61 1.3 0 360 4

With as much improvement as Schaub showed last season (in both TDs and durability), I think that 420-440 carries (which they posted in both 08 and 09 (437 08 and 425 09) is a likely floor for the Foster/Slaton and company RBBC (my floor for the team is 430: 200 for Foster, 100 for Slaton, 60 for Schaub and the receivers; 70 for assorted backups/FBs). As I noted earlier, 510 (which is the upside case in my projections) is probably too optimistic, but I could see it happening - I just don't think it is likely. 470-80ish is probably a good bet for the final finish for the entire team, with foster at 225 and Slaton at 125, the rest basically the same.

There is definitely some uncertainty with the turf toe situation, which hasn't been (and won't be) resolved prior to regular season. Koya's best-case for Foster could certainly come true if Slaton is slow to rehab that sore toe (if it is a serious turf toe injury).

It's not that I am hating on Foster, I just don't see a good case for him being a top-12 fantasy RB. I think his upside is RB 2, with a RB 3 finish more likely (I know I'm repeating myself, just want to keep my actual stance on this guy clear).

I'm not really talking about the number of total rushing attempts, I'm more talking about the % split. In 2008 and the beginning of 2009, Houston gave Slaton between 65-70% of all RB carries (and touches). Slaton was the #7 RB in 2008, even with only 432 team rushing attempts. He got 62% of the team rushing attempts in 2008, and was on pace for similar numbers as the starter to begin 2009, but you're only predicting Foster to have around 47% (225/475) of the team rushing attempts this year. Not sure why, when this hasn't been their MO the last two seasons. It's possible, I just think it's more likely that barring injury, Foster will get close to 60% of the total team rushing attempts, which gets him around 285 carries using your projected team numbers (which I don't have a problem with, they may actually be a tad high).

I see where your upside projections come from, but I don't see Foster in line for 60% of the TOTAL rushing touches. If he gets there, then obviously he blows the doors off my projections/rankings. I think he gets the lion's share of the RBBC touches (225/420 = ~53.5% for Foster; ~29.7% for Slaton; ~16.9% for "other RBs" ), but the ~60 rushes for QB/WR shouldn't be part of the pool you dip your %'s from, IMO. Look, it's obvious that Foster boosters want to argue the upside case for him. My ranking/projection is more conservative, but it's not a rejection or slight against the guy. I simply think that one preseason game has some people overly optimistic about his chances. The Cowboys, looking forwards to week three/Sept. 26th of the regular season, opted to play totally vanilla schemes and bring the real deal when the game counted. The Texans opted to come at the Cowboys full bore in the preseason and then deal with the consequences of doing so in week three of the regular season. We'll soon see which team was more wise in their approach to competing for the "Governor's Cup".

 

[oso diablo]

another draft anecdote:

12-team, start 1/2/2/1, reasonably normal scoring, mixed skill levels...

Foster went at 4.04, at RB18, one pick after Best, and just ahead of McCoy and Wells.

 

[Doug B]

i like foster. The challenge for me is to not overpay for him and grab him a round earlier (3.08) when i might be able to play of my league mates' ignorance and get him at 4.05

The trick with this is that it only takes one knowledgeable (read: check out the Internet regularly) drafter to steal Foster from under your nose. Doesn't matter if there's 8 or 9 drafters who've never heard of Foster if the rest of the league is set to spend a third-rounder.