First, I apologize for ANOTHER Arian Foster thread, but given that he had a game on national television last night, which allowed many people to actually focus and watch him for the first time all season, I figured this was a good time to spark a talk about his long term outlook.
Every thread I have seen on Foster up to this point has been centered on whether he was legit, would be in a RBBC, or would have the job moving into the future. I think many of the people who worried about those things did so because they hadn't actually seen him play and after watching last night, I think we can put those discussions to bed (for those that have watched him all year, they put them to bed weeks ago).
What I want to discuss is the long term outlook for him. Let's assume that he is the guy and the clear cut #1 moving forward (which I think is safe). What I am interested in is where does he fit into the hierchy? The key question here is what will the Texans do with Gary Kubiak going into next season? I saw one homer give some insight in the RBBC thread, but would like other homers thoughts- will Kubiak be back? This is the single most important factor when determining his dynasty value in my opinion. I don't think there is any question that Foster will be back as the bellcow next year (barring injury), but being the bellcow in Kubiak's offense is very different than being the bellcow in a new coach's offense.
If Kubiak is back, where does Foster belong in the hierchy of running backs? With Stewart looking so pedestrian and having such an unclear future, should he move ahead of him in dynasty rankings? What about Jamaal Charles- I would say Foster and Charles have looked like 2 of the 3 most impressive running backs in the league this season, but is Charles more due to talent and Foster more due to situation? How about Mendehall, who has put up numbers and has much better pedigree, but also has not looked nearly as good or as impressive doing it? Gore, who has put up very impressive numbers, but is taking on a HUGE workload and will begin to have age concerns?
If Kubiak is not back, where does that put Foster in the running back pecking order? This is the question I haven't seen addressed and what I am most interested in. I think it is safe to say that if Kubiak returns, Foster is a no brainer top 8 dynasty running back (probably higher, in reality). However, if Kubiak does not return, I'm guessing opinions will be all over the board on him. Again, for the purpose of this conversation, let's just assume he is back next year as the clear cut #1 and the bellcow and form some opinions on what happens to his value if he is the #1 running back for a new coach rather than Kubiak.
Every thread I have seen on Foster up to this point has been centered on whether he was legit, would be in a RBBC, or would have the job moving into the future. I think many of the people who worried about those things did so because they hadn't actually seen him play and after watching last night, I think we can put those discussions to bed (for those that have watched him all year, they put them to bed weeks ago).
What I want to discuss is the long term outlook for him. Let's assume that he is the guy and the clear cut #1 moving forward (which I think is safe). What I am interested in is where does he fit into the hierchy? The key question here is what will the Texans do with Gary Kubiak going into next season? I saw one homer give some insight in the RBBC thread, but would like other homers thoughts- will Kubiak be back? This is the single most important factor when determining his dynasty value in my opinion. I don't think there is any question that Foster will be back as the bellcow next year (barring injury), but being the bellcow in Kubiak's offense is very different than being the bellcow in a new coach's offense.
If Kubiak is back, where does Foster belong in the hierchy of running backs? With Stewart looking so pedestrian and having such an unclear future, should he move ahead of him in dynasty rankings? What about Jamaal Charles- I would say Foster and Charles have looked like 2 of the 3 most impressive running backs in the league this season, but is Charles more due to talent and Foster more due to situation? How about Mendehall, who has put up numbers and has much better pedigree, but also has not looked nearly as good or as impressive doing it? Gore, who has put up very impressive numbers, but is taking on a HUGE workload and will begin to have age concerns?
If Kubiak is not back, where does that put Foster in the running back pecking order? This is the question I haven't seen addressed and what I am most interested in. I think it is safe to say that if Kubiak returns, Foster is a no brainer top 8 dynasty running back (probably higher, in reality). However, if Kubiak does not return, I'm guessing opinions will be all over the board on him. Again, for the purpose of this conversation, let's just assume he is back next year as the clear cut #1 and the bellcow and form some opinions on what happens to his value if he is the #1 running back for a new coach rather than Kubiak.
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