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Arian Foster (1 Viewer)

Herm23

Footballguy
First, I apologize for ANOTHER Arian Foster thread, but given that he had a game on national television last night, which allowed many people to actually focus and watch him for the first time all season, I figured this was a good time to spark a talk about his long term outlook.

Every thread I have seen on Foster up to this point has been centered on whether he was legit, would be in a RBBC, or would have the job moving into the future. I think many of the people who worried about those things did so because they hadn't actually seen him play and after watching last night, I think we can put those discussions to bed (for those that have watched him all year, they put them to bed weeks ago).

What I want to discuss is the long term outlook for him. Let's assume that he is the guy and the clear cut #1 moving forward (which I think is safe). What I am interested in is where does he fit into the hierchy? The key question here is what will the Texans do with Gary Kubiak going into next season? I saw one homer give some insight in the RBBC thread, but would like other homers thoughts- will Kubiak be back? This is the single most important factor when determining his dynasty value in my opinion. I don't think there is any question that Foster will be back as the bellcow next year (barring injury), but being the bellcow in Kubiak's offense is very different than being the bellcow in a new coach's offense.

If Kubiak is back, where does Foster belong in the hierchy of running backs? With Stewart looking so pedestrian and having such an unclear future, should he move ahead of him in dynasty rankings? What about Jamaal Charles- I would say Foster and Charles have looked like 2 of the 3 most impressive running backs in the league this season, but is Charles more due to talent and Foster more due to situation? How about Mendehall, who has put up numbers and has much better pedigree, but also has not looked nearly as good or as impressive doing it? Gore, who has put up very impressive numbers, but is taking on a HUGE workload and will begin to have age concerns?

If Kubiak is not back, where does that put Foster in the running back pecking order? This is the question I haven't seen addressed and what I am most interested in. I think it is safe to say that if Kubiak returns, Foster is a no brainer top 8 dynasty running back (probably higher, in reality). However, if Kubiak does not return, I'm guessing opinions will be all over the board on him. Again, for the purpose of this conversation, let's just assume he is back next year as the clear cut #1 and the bellcow and form some opinions on what happens to his value if he is the #1 running back for a new coach rather than Kubiak.

 
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He's #3 in my own ranking behind Johnson and Peterson. The guy is talented, pure and simple. I watch him run and am amazed that people see something different than "talent". He has burst, vision, balance, and agility. You don't really see high end speed but he's delivered with long runs already, so that's covered.

 
I watch every game, and I was skeptical of Foster in the preseason. After watching him play, his vision is just so outstanding. He is a perfect fit for the ZBS, knows how to see a hole, and knows when to go down and not try too hard which was always Slaton's problem. Foster has really impressed me and I think he can continue to produce. Houston would have to lose every game in the remainder of the season for Kubiak to be in trouble, I just don't see McNair firing him. So I think the only wildcard for Foster's 2011 potential is Ben Tate and whether or not he makes a significant impact in training camp next year.

 
Tate better be special. Foster is Averaging 5.7 a carry and on pace for 60+ catches @ 8.75 per reception. Foster looks to be special.

 
Man, it's tough. Isn't Foster the #1 scoring fantasy RB right now? He may "deserve" to be #1 in rankings but people will never put him ahead of "name" players like Chris Johnson, who has been unimpressive this year, and Adrian Peterson who is a true bellcow but doesn't get the receptions.

Foster also showed he has soft hands last night with that sweet one handed catch. He also seems to be a humble player and not a head case. He's in a great offense with weapons around him and what appears to be a stable coaching staff. Which is more than can be said for AP and CJ (AP has a bad coaching staff and CJ is a head case).

So, you could argue that he deserves to be the #1 fantasy back (and perhaps #1 back in the NFL), but it likely won't happen. Hopefully he doesn't get snubbed for the pro-bowl due to bigger name players like CJ and AP, MJD etc.

 

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