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Arrest warrant issued for Brian Laundrie: *** Official manhunt time *** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Capella
- Start date
GordonGekko
Footballguy
Doug B said:
It's been many years since I regularly posted in the Shark Pool. Back then, Adam Harstaad went completely berserk on me. I said something about the decline in the quality of the prospects that the Broncos were picking up in their then recent draft classes to someone else, and low and behold, Harstaad start carpet bombing me with unsolicited PMs saying I was wrong and that the Broncos had excellent drafts and I should know better. I pointed out that everyone has an opinion and his opinions were not facts and that it's not his place to tell me my opinions were somehow under the standard of what he believed were his "facts" that should apply to everyone. And that we could simply agree to disagree on viewpoints on a forum discussion not even directed at him. Then he came back and said no we can't.
Pretty disgusting. From a business standpoint, just completely repugnant. When you are paid to do a job, you are obligated and have a duty to manage the expectations of your customers or potential customers. When the customers or potential customers are in the position of managing the employees expectations, what exactly does that say? It's a sad tragic day when a Tier 1 pipe hitter like me has to be counted on to be the rational one.
The point of bringing this back up is the context of the discussion in the forums over teams making quality drafts was that classic Bill Walsh team building methodology was that three consecutive deep and excellent drafts will cure any ills that an NFL team has in place. Winning is a great deodorant. Name any NFL team with any list of toxic problems and bad coaching and horrible play on the field, and if you gave them three deep and hard hitting draft classes where you bring in multiple blue chip impact players who can make splash plays and force the opponents to pick their poison in game planning, then you've solved 99 percent of your problems. Cheap cost controlled talent giving you exponential value against the actual market rate of production against a rookie contract is the best overall value in the current NFL salary structure. You also get a guy as he's entering his prime and not forced to swallow any portion of his expected decline phase.
Bill Walsh succeeded because Bill Walsh understood the power of effective resource management.
Seasons are won and lost before a team even takes it's first snap during it's first game. You don't win on the field unless you win the resource management battle first.
What does this have to do with Brian Laundrie?
The FBI only has so much manpower and money to spend on this case before there are glaring diminishing returns on a clearly bad investment. In effect, if federal law enforcement directed all of their manpower and all of their resources to find Laundrie, then yes, eventually his chances of being caught are pretty strong. But like any other decision based on practical asset allocation, there are always opportunity costs.
Laundrie has more to fear from the US Marshals than the FBI. The Marshals are trained and have specialty units designed to track hard targets and fugitives.
Brian Laundrie, if he's still alive, has every incentive to force the FBI, the US Marshals and all other law enforcement a new "redball" case to focus on besides finding him.
*****
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-JduaS_ydPc
*****
NatGeo is releasing a short mini series about what? Someone who mailed plain white envelopes with white powder in them and triggered a massive public and law enforcement response.
The US Marshals OBO is responsible for protecting sitting SCOTUS. But they are reinforced by their SOG units since 2020 and the reality of the controversy over Garland/McConnell/ACB/Kavanaugh, etc, etc plus the open threat posed by talk of reversing Roe vs Wade and triggering all the fringe Pro Life/Pro Choice radicals out there.
Connect the dots here. Brian Laundrie wants to have fewer FBI agents and US Marshals hot on his trail. What's the easiest and simplest and proven way to create a controversy that won't actually harm anyone else ( we don't know if he killed Petito or not) that shifts the resource management ledger in his favor?
This is a theoretical discussion about the reality of basic asset management. You only have so many employees, you only have so many hours in a day, you only have so much time to put in one specific direction without causing a massive perception problem on your overall public reputation and the demands for basic return on investment.
There needs to be an actual return on investment at some point. When law enforcement went after John Gotti and spent all that money and time and man power, do you not think there was an expectation that results needed to be delivered at some point.
I'll let people connect the dots themselves. If Laundrie is alive, he has an actual option base to open up his maneuverability.
GordonGekko
Footballguy
tonysmiles said:
This doesn't have to be complicated. You find a small town that has some big city type elements to it that is mostly secluded. Everything you will need is within walking distance. The more you use a car, the more you increase your chances of being pulled over. The more you use a bicycle or a motorcycle or a scooter or anything like that, you increase your odds of getting into some kind of accident where law enforcement will be involved.
You rent two different apartments and a storage unit. You split your money into four segments. You keep one segment in another city isolated out as your fallback plan. You fill the storage unit with cheap furniture, chairs, old appliances and random junk found in any storage unit and you secure some of your cash there. You have a secondary apartment where you keep a maintained van with U Haul logos on the outside and an extensive go bag/ditch kit/weapons package and a cash stash. A U Haul can drive anywhere at any time and no one pays attention. You are "moving" so it makes it easy to be a stranger or be parked anywhere or driving any time of day. You have a main residence where you hold your "legend" or your pure cover story and try to live a somewhat normal life. You keep a portion of your cash with you there.
Don't date anyone. Don't go out to eat in a sit down restaurant. Don't mingle too much in town. Be polite, spend time at "home" and stay away from major public events and venues. You "work at home" and remotely for your company. You work in "sales".
Buy a power rack. Write the next great American novel. Cook at home. Play some CounterDuty to ease your mind.
Live a simple life. The more simple your life, the harder it is to leave breadcrumbs to track you.
GordonGekko
Footballguy
People don't typically sell stolen firearms to totally random strangers they don't know.
If you mean buy one off of a crackhead or such, how will that play out? Anyone dumb enough to want to sell you a gun that doesn't know you or know someone who is going to vouch for you is someone you don't want to be around.
If you get to know someone well enough for them to trust you enough to sell you an illegal firearm, well you've got a bounty on your head for about a quarter of a million dollars now. They can sell you a gun and commit untold number of crimes to do it or just turn you in for a massive windfall.
If you get to know someone well enough where they will vouch for you to buy a firearm off of someone they know, you've exposed yourself to more risk of being discovered.
I didn't say any of this would be easy. But there is an actual risk versus reward matrix involved in moving forward and trying to get things you need to survive as a runner.
But please, enlighten all of us on what you believe are the absolute easiest ways to buy an AR15 off the streets from a total stranger.
If you are a runner with your face blown up in the national daily media cycle and a reward on your head, there are no "easier paths"
Dezbelief
Footballguy
Just hangout in the parking lot of a gun show and be willing to pay above market value, there's no paperwork needed on private sales in several states.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
[icon]
Insoxicated
You clearly do not live in Memphis.
I could buy just about anything I want for the right price... assuming you have a modicum of street smarts.
Lawd, this guy.
[icon]
Insoxicated
And dozens of Facebook groups, online forums, online sales pages, etc to link buyer with seller with no formal structure in place for transfers.
Hell I've personally bought a pistol off a guy I never met before in a parking lot of a Popeyes Chicken.
It's comical how easy it would be.. and 95% of the dudes you're dealing with wouldn't recognize this kid.
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beer 30
Footballguy
Psychopav
Help us, Joebi-Wan Brynobi, you're our only ho
Tom Servo
Nittany Beavers
flapgreen
Footballguy
culdeus
Footballguy
I paid cash for a 38 that I knew was nearly certainly involved in some #### from my barber.
edit: @FBIbros4Bernie HI
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Frostillicus
Footballguy
I, for one, have no idea how to buy a hot gun.
Your payment history wasn't my issue. If he killed himself in some swamp we'll never know that. He's he's not caught then we'll all be a pile of bones before this is might even be resolved.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Me neither, but it’s pretty disturbing how easy it sounds. And irritating how some of the pro 2A crowd acts like it doesn’t happen.
Jaysus
Good times!
AAABatteries
Footballguy
No clue where you store it but 13M can pay for some extensive plastic surgery. I’m not going to Gekko things up here but if I was wanted that is one thing I would try to do.tonysmiles said:
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
It seems Adam Harstaad is emerging as a prime suspect here. Lots of chatter on the deep web. I'm going to have a deep dive on my Qtube channel later today on this.
STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
Don’t get the thread locked.
Its not as easy as it sounds as evidence by your admitted lack of knowledge on how to do so.
There isn’t one pro 2A person who acts like it doesn’t happen. Criminals will always have the ability to buy anything illegally.
If you would like to discuss this further we can do so in the cesspool that is the political forum. Let’s not get this thread locked.
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El Floppo
Footballguy
I think he's reacting to a couple of posts above from our ffa friends talking about doing it themselves or explaining how easy it is at least. But yes, they're likely criminals.
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
The thing is, he knows elephants. Not many know their tendencies, including dung beetle relevance. A lot of ways to hide.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
I’ve had many discussions with 2A advocates who act like it doesn’t happen, so it was surprising to see multiple people chime in so quickly suggesting otherwise.
But you’re right, that’s more of a political discussion, and even though there was nothing lock-worthy in my commentary, I don’t want to rinse and repeat behavior that could harm the thread.
El Floppo
Footballguy
Oh yeah...we're the paradigm of good behavior and useful info in here- don't want to crimp any of that.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Puns not gunsOh yeah...we're the paradigm of good behavior and useful info in here- don't want to crimp any of that.
Dennis Castro
Footballguy
I’m so out of my element, I had to look up what 2A means.
I’m not Googling bang stick though.
I’m not Googling bang stick though.
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El Floppo
Footballguy
Dezbelief
Footballguy
Florida doesn't allow the use of firearms when alligator hunting. Florida does allow bang sticks. It's basically a metal tube inside a metal tube, it's used to shoot a .22 round. The inner tube sticks out a little, you bang the end of the tube on something (alligator spine) and the inner tube forces the .22 round to hit the firing pin.
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Terminalxylem
Footballguy
JaxBill
Footballguy
JaxBill
Footballguy
well, no duh.
Survivalists doubt Laundrie would survive in the reserve this long
(psssst, it's a red herring)
Survivalists doubt Laundrie would survive in the reserve this long
(psssst, it's a red herring)
The Z Machine
Footballguy
So, most likely scenario is that he's holed up in a house somewhere in the US with second most likely scenario being that he offed himself not in that wilderness area in FLA.
The Kerminator
Footballguy
Isn't it like 24000 acres and waist deep water for the most part. Doubt they're looking for a phone only
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GordonGekko
Footballguy
Carrying anywhere from hundreds to a thousand to more in cash in exchange for someone clearly carrying a firearm. And having every major federal law enforcement agency in the country looking for you.
What could go wrong?
A "civilian" has some legal recourse if he's robbed at gunpoint. He also is not under the threat of a widespread national manhunt. If you buy a gun from someone on the street, they aren't forgetting your face. A "civilian" probably has a job or a career where he can recoup that lost money.
Brian Laundrie, if he's still alive, has to minimize the number of "contact points" with the general public.
Take having a car. There are massive benefits to having a car or a van for Laundrie. It makes possibly finding cash work easier. It makes escape and evade easier. It's an easy temporary place to live. It's consistent stable storage for his minimal survival gear.
But you need gas. The car needs maintenance. You risk being pulled over by law enforcement. You are now subject to traffic cameras. You have to find a way to work around basic repairs and simulating registration and/or a possible alternate drivers license. Every time you stop at a red light, someone in the car across from you might recognize you.
I'm not going to go deep into the GCA1968 nor the actual tooling to specifically covert a 80 Percent Lower. I will say it's not as complicated as some here make it seem. Would it be easy? Nothing is easy as a runner. That being said, when you need to adapt and overcome, then necessity becomes the mother of invention.
The point remains the same - Laundrie needs to reduce his "contact points" as much as possible.
Yes, there are benefits to garnering one finished commercial grade product instantly. If you can swing that. But like owing a vehicle, where there are clear tradeoffs. People here talk like civilians under civilian standards, not as a runner based on a nation wide man hunt.
Having the base to tool something like this allows someone in this situation to convert multiple items. That means more caches and more options. More variables in a fall back plan and more defensible positions you can hold under duress.
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
My FIL bought many guns, on the cheap, from randos, down on their luck. He made a grip of loot, reselling them to other randos. And also accumulated quite an Arsenal. He was in NC. 
GordonGekko
Footballguy
Here are a couple of practice exercises for you and others here.
1) Count drink cups and coffee cups laying around on the ground all around you. Just count them. In your head tally them up from the morning until you get home in the evening. Obviously people working at home won't get much of this, but they can do it when they run errands on the weekend.
Notice how much more you observe what's on the ground, what's out of place, what's out of alignment around you. Notice what people casually ignore or are too invested in something else to pay attention to out there.
Human beings have been spoiled by technology and a society designed to keep them safe. Learn to slow down, watch, observe, and make a general threat assessment around you.
Then play the game. Look at things that people take for granted or ignore and calculate how you could use that to your survival advantage. If you see an empty can of soup in a parking lot, look at the top metal piece. Break it off. Wedge it between a stick. Tie it down with some string or small rope. Use a stone and water and sharpen the edges. Now you have a cutting implement.
Some of you will laugh because you were raised in a society of abundance that taught you to be weak. Think like you don't live in a bubble full of plenty. Then the mindset becomes tactics/counter tactics. It becomes pragmatism. It becomes utility.
The human race only survived by focusing on practical utility. Some of you will laugh, but then again most of you don't actually understand biological imperative, you don't understand that the things I'm talking about are the core strategies of why you are even alive today.
2) Talk to random strangers at a grocery store or a gas station or a library or in line at the post office or anything like that. Make it a game. Get 10 pieces of information from the mark but only give up 1 piece of information from yourself. See if you can keep and hold that 10/1 ratio. Go home and write down what you learned and remember about the person. Do it as as a thought exercise.
A runner will need to be able to "socially massage" their way in and out of basic interaction.
For example, if I wanted and needed some basic cover, i.e. law enforcement is around and I want to appear to be in a group versus appearing alone, I'd walk up to someone with a dog.
"I bet you that dog lives better than you and me combined, but I always tend to like dogs more than the average person"
"What kind of dog is it?"
"I hear pure breeds have more health problems, is that true?"
"I used to have a dog, passed away, horrible when that happens, he was my best friend in the entire world"
People don't respond to you. Most people are too entitled, selfish, self absorbed and lack critical thinking ability. Most lack any real personal agency. People respond to how you make them feel about themselves.
Lay bait. Roll commonality. Be an active listener. Sell "Us Versus Them" softly. Then extract information or a resource. Assess if the person can be a short term or long term asset base. The easiest way to soft roll people is to actually operate as if you are genuinely interested in them as a pure human being.
I'm not lethal because I have all the answers. I'm lethal because I know when and where to ask the right questions.
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
And blue horseshoe loves Anacott Steel.
Flash
Footballguy
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
The Big Donkey
Footballguy
Wingnut
Footballguy
I called strangulation a few weeks ago.
My theory is he did it in the van when that couple in the RV passed by and we saw the van back doors close. I think she was gonna flag them down for a ride or something and he choked her out to keep her quiet and from exiting the van, killing her perhaps accidentally. He then waited til dark, dragged her body to the dumping spot, and hauled butt out of there.
My theory is he did it in the van when that couple in the RV passed by and we saw the van back doors close. I think she was gonna flag them down for a ride or something and he choked her out to keep her quiet and from exiting the van, killing her perhaps accidentally. He then waited til dark, dragged her body to the dumping spot, and hauled butt out of there.
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