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At What Point Do You Consider Chris Johnson? (1 Viewer)

'iNeedCoffee said:
'Funkley said:
I agree that the risk isnt him missing games. Its reporting last minute and getting hurt.
Agree 100 percent. Guys who usually hold out during training camps and on through the preseason usually get hurt sometime during the regular season or even struggle to put up good numbers. I have the 12th pick in a 12 team standard scoring league and as of now, I'm not even looking at CJ unless he falls deep into the third round. I just see more risk than reward with CJ currently. I would rather have someone like Mendenhall or Turner, one of the elite receivers, or maybe grab an elite QB where I'm drafting at.
That seems pretty short-sighted, how often do you get a chance at an elite RB and WR at the turn? Your leaguemates COULD be handing the keys to the Corvette but you are going to take the moped because you don't want to wake the neighbors when you come home late...
 
'Captain Hook said:
At What Point Do You Consider Chris Johnson?

Right after the Titans do - and not before

If you DO draft him and right now it shouldn't be in the first round, not sure about the second, then you HAVE to spend a fairly early pick on Javon Ringer
:goodposting: He's down to 31st on my non-PPR overall as of today, mostly due to the GINORMOUS contract that Fitzgerald got. 15th on my PPR overall. Essentially, those rankings say "let someone else take the risk on an extended holdout happening". IMO the chances for at least some lost games is now pretty high for Johnson. Perhaps even a Vincent Jackson type situation.

The Titans are very, very stubborn about dealing with holdouts, and they don't want to cave to anybody. As others have pointed out, it's not like they are going to win the division or go to the playoffs this year anyway, not with IND/HOU in the AFC South. They have serviceable backs in Ringer and Harper, and they may just show Johnson they intend to play without him if he continues to hold out.

The other scenario I can see is Johnson coming in, but then having a sudden "hamstring injury" that keeps him off the field and out of practices until a new contract is done. Not sure how the Titans would react to that, but again it'd still be lost time.

This one is getting rancorous and bitter IMO.

 
'Captain Hook said:
At What Point Do You Consider Chris Johnson?

Right after the Titans do - and not before

If you DO draft him and right now it shouldn't be in the first round, not sure about the second, then you HAVE to spend a fairly early pick on Javon Ringer
:goodposting: He's down to 31st on my non-PPR overall as of today, mostly due to the GINORMOUS contract that Fitzgerald got. 15th on my PPR overall. Essentially, those rankings say "let someone else take the risk on an extended holdout happening". IMO the chances for at least some lost games is now pretty high for Johnson. Perhaps even a Vincent Jackson type situation.

The Titans are very, very stubborn about dealing with holdouts, and they don't want to cave to anybody. As others have pointed out, it's not like they are going to win the division or go to the playoffs this year anyway, not with IND/HOU in the AFC South. They have serviceable backs in Ringer and Harper, and they may just show Johnson they intend to play without him if he continues to hold out.

The other scenario I can see is Johnson coming in, but then having a sudden "hamstring injury" that keeps him off the field and out of practices until a new contract is done. Not sure how the Titans would react to that, but again it'd still be lost time.

This one is getting rancorous and bitter IMO.
I get that you do this for a living and I don't, but I couldn't disagree with you more. I really think people are passing up an elite RB based on a holdout which is unlikely to last through the end of the preseason. Nobody knows how this will work out and we'll have to see what happens. I can understand passing him up in the first 5-7 picks because of this. But I think that if you wait any longer than that you're going to regret it.
 
I see a lot of folks overly preoccupied with Week 1 of the season.

Assuming you have enough faith in the rest of your team (and your drafting/waiver wire/trade abilities) to make the playoffs, what you should be concerned about is what CJ does in December. No way I'm passing on him and taking some lesser player out of fear. In it to win it.

 
I see a lot of folks overly preoccupied with Week 1 of the season.Assuming you have enough faith in the rest of your team (and your drafting/waiver wire/trade abilities) to make the playoffs, what you should be concerned about is what CJ does in December. No way I'm passing on him and taking some lesser player out of fear. In it to win it.
To me it's the injury risk of a guy who already had a lot of carries coming back and not being able to STAY healthy. I think it's enough to drop him from top 3 to 7-10. By that point depending on the format I think you still HAVE to take him.
 
I see a lot of folks overly preoccupied with Week 1 of the season.Assuming you have enough faith in the rest of your team (and your drafting/waiver wire/trade abilities) to make the playoffs, what you should be concerned about is what CJ does in December. No way I'm passing on him and taking some lesser player out of fear. In it to win it.
Before we praise what CJ will do in December, we should look at last years results.Weeks 12 thru 17 in my league CJ avg 11.2 ppg. ranked 12th in RBs. Had 3 weeks out of 6 with 6 pts or less.
 
As far as I'm concerned, he's a top 3 running back along with Foster and ADP. I'd grab him 3rd overall and and any later than that is to your advantage if he's still on the board. Just be sure to take Ringer late in the draft so you have a filler in week 1 if it becomes necessary.
Well lets assume for a moment CJ is out for a while. How far do you bump up Ringer if Cj misses half over most of the regular season?This could be VJax-esque as far as timeframe goes
 
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As far as I'm concerned, he's a top 3 running back along with Foster and ADP. I'd grab him 3rd overall and and any later than that is to your advantage if he's still on the board. Just be sure to take Ringer late in the draft so you have a filler in week 1 if it becomes necessary.
Well lets assume for a moment CJ is out for a while. How far do you bump up Ringer if Cj misses half over most of the regular season?This could be VJax-esque as far as timeframe goes
Most of us draft before half the season is over.
 
I'm making a bold move. I'm getting him at 2nd round prices in an auction. Other owners are trying to squeeze me with Javon Ringer before CJ's auction is even over. I haven't even bid once. I'm taking a stance that he plays week 1 and is injury free. FF is such a crapshoot, but every year there's that player or situation where midway through the season you are either cursing the obviousness in hindsight or :banned: This year it's Chris Johnson.

 
I'm making a bold move. I'm getting him at 2nd round prices in an auction. Other owners are trying to squeeze me with Javon Ringer before CJ's auction is even over. I haven't even bid once. I'm taking a stance that he plays week 1 and is injury free. FF is such a crapshoot, but every year there's that player or situation where midway through the season you are either cursing the obviousness in hindsight or :banned: This year it's Chris Johnson.
Bold is great, and I see why you don't want to overpay for Ringer. But at least pick up Harper off the WW or at the end of the auction.
 
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'iNeedCoffee said:
'Funkley said:
I agree that the risk isnt him missing games. Its reporting last minute and getting hurt.
Agree 100 percent. Guys who usually hold out during training camps and on through the preseason usually get hurt sometime during the regular season or even struggle to put up good numbers.
i think his injury risk is being incredibly overrated. hes an elite athlete and specimen that has missed a single game at the most grueling position over 3 seasons while maintaining a huge workload. 294, 408 and 360 touches. his injury risk may be a tad higher than usual, but its still gonna be one of the lowest in the rb pool. im sure he staying in shape and im sure he will adapt to the speed of the game immediately bc thats what the elites do.
 
'Captain Hook said:
At What Point Do You Consider Chris Johnson?

Right after the Titans do - and not before

If you DO draft him and right now it shouldn't be in the first round, not sure about the second, then you HAVE to spend a fairly early pick on Javon Ringer
:goodposting: He's down to 31st on my non-PPR overall as of today, mostly due to the GINORMOUS contract that Fitzgerald got. 15th on my PPR overall. Essentially, those rankings say "let someone else take the risk on an extended holdout happening". IMO the chances for at least some lost games is now pretty high for Johnson. Perhaps even a Vincent Jackson type situation.

The Titans are very, very stubborn about dealing with holdouts, and they don't want to cave to anybody. As others have pointed out, it's not like they are going to win the division or go to the playoffs this year anyway, not with IND/HOU in the AFC South. They have serviceable backs in Ringer and Harper, and they may just show Johnson they intend to play without him if he continues to hold out.

The other scenario I can see is Johnson coming in, but then having a sudden "hamstring injury" that keeps him off the field and out of practices until a new contract is done. Not sure how the Titans would react to that, but again it'd still be lost time.

This one is getting rancorous and bitter IMO.
I get that you do this for a living and I don't, but I couldn't disagree with you more. I really think people are passing up an elite RB based on a holdout which is unlikely to last through the end of the preseason. Nobody knows how this will work out and we'll have to see what happens. I can understand passing him up in the first 5-7 picks because of this. But I think that if you wait any longer than that you're going to regret it.
The other side of this you MUST consider, however, is, in a redraft, you MUST have your top pick pan out. Otherwise, you might as well just mail money somewhere and not even follow the results (assuming your league has competent owners). So, when you say "a holdout which is unlikely to last through the end of the preseason", you MUST be prepared to live with it IF it does. Sure, it doesn't sound like much but even if he shows up 4 days before the season, he has to get into shape...real shape...and he has to get on page with the new coach and the new teammates...and he ahs to run the risk of having those minor injuries that often come with being out of shape. So, in the end, you MUST consider that you may not have him for 1-3 games (or maybe more). That's a lot to lose when you can't field your #1 overall pick.

And like was said yesterday, he is a feast or famine player. I side with the people that want to let soemone else take the risk.

 
you MUST have your top pick pan out.
this is not true at all. otherwise, many years the drafters in the late first round would have little chance. feast or famine should be the goal of a fantasy player/drafter bc of the steep payout structure. you dont make any money having a solid team in the top 75% of your leagues. you make money with outlier teams that are better than 11 others.
 
you MUST have your top pick pan out.
this is not true at all. otherwise, many years the drafters in the late first round would have little chance. feast or famine should be the goal of a fantasy player/drafter bc of the steep payout structure. you dont make any money having a solid team in the top 75% of your leagues. you make money with outlier teams that are better than 11 others.
:goodposting:If your top pick last year was Deangelo Williams, but you picked Arian Foster in the 13th RD, whats the problem?
 
you MUST have your top pick pan out.
this is not true at all. otherwise, many years the drafters in the late first round would have little chance. feast or famine should be the goal of a fantasy player/drafter bc of the steep payout structure. you dont make any money having a solid team in the top 75% of your leagues. you make money with outlier teams that are better than 11 others.
:goodposting:If your top pick last year was Deangelo Williams, but you picked Arian Foster in the 13th RD, whats the problem?
Tell us who that guaranteed 13th rounder is that will replace a failed first rounder. The answer is that players like Foster are nothing but LUCK.I agree that Foster should have been rated higher than a 13th rounder. But anyone who says that they expected him to produce like he did is a liar.Getting first round production out of a 13th rounder is being lucky, because it almost never happens.
 
you MUST have your top pick pan out.
this is not true at all. otherwise, many years the drafters in the late first round would have little chance. feast or famine should be the goal of a fantasy player/drafter bc of the steep payout structure. you dont make any money having a solid team in the top 75% of your leagues. you make money with outlier teams that are better than 11 others.
:goodposting:If your top pick last year was Deangelo Williams, but you picked Arian Foster in the 13th RD, whats the problem?
Tell us who that guaranteed 13th rounder is that will replace a failed first rounder. The answer is that players like Foster are nothing but LUCK.I agree that Foster should have been rated higher than a 13th rounder. But anyone who says that they expected him to produce like he did is a liar.Getting first round production out of a 13th rounder is being lucky, because it almost never happens.
Arian Foster went in at 4.02 in our league last year.
 
Serious question. Can anyone remember a guy who held out and missed all of training camp that didn't have substantial hamstring issues during the season? Especially a speed guy?
Emmitt Smith held out for the first 2 games of the 1993 season. He returned for the remaining 14 games (starting 13 of them), ran for 1486 yards/9 TDs and received 414 yards/1 TD. No injuries at all.
 
'aburt19 said:
'comfortably numb said:
'cvnpoka said:
you MUST have your top pick pan out.
this is not true at all. otherwise, many years the drafters in the late first round would have little chance. feast or famine should be the goal of a fantasy player/drafter bc of the steep payout structure. you dont make any money having a solid team in the top 75% of your leagues. you make money with outlier teams that are better than 11 others.
:goodposting:If your top pick last year was Deangelo Williams, but you picked Arian Foster in the 13th RD, whats the problem?
Tell us who that guaranteed 13th rounder is that will replace a failed first rounder. The answer is that players like Foster are nothing but LUCK.I agree that Foster should have been rated higher than a 13th rounder. But anyone who says that they expected him to produce like he did is a liar.Getting first round production out of a 13th rounder is being lucky, because it almost never happens.
Expectations aside, I tend to look for some "lottery tickets" at the end of the draft. Missed Foster, but did manage to snag Hillis off the WW week one, and that was because he was on my radar.So yes, missing on Johnson in the first round would hurt, but I don't think it would be fatal.
 
You are nuts to have him ranked as a 3rd rounder. Why not draft him 8-12 and trade him to one of the sane 11 owners who value him as a first rounder. Like price-enforcing in an auction.

Can't let someone get A. Foster, C. Johnson and V. Jackson to start a draft.

C. Johnson has not made life-setting money yet. Unlike Fitzgerald had. No way CJ is going to turn down being paid as the highest RB in league. Won't happen. No downside to continuing to hold out most of preaseason. Maybe the Titans will up their offer but they won't lessen it.

 
In my draft, I'm picking 4th. I expect Peterson and Foster off the board to start the draft. With the 3rd pick is where I think Johnson comes into play, but here's my question - why take Johnson, and worry about the risk of injury from holding out when you can get an explosive game breaker in Charles or a safe pick in Ray Rice?

 
Chris Johnson

retweet by espn_afcsouth

Flying out to Nashville tonight to meet with Joel and the GM in the morning to see which way were going. Could get better or worst

 
'aburt19 said:
'comfortably numb said:
'cvnpoka said:
you MUST have your top pick pan out.
this is not true at all. otherwise, many years the drafters in the late first round would have little chance. feast or famine should be the goal of a fantasy player/drafter bc of the steep payout structure. you dont make any money having a solid team in the top 75% of your leagues. you make money with outlier teams that are better than 11 others.
:goodposting:If your top pick last year was Deangelo Williams, but you picked Arian Foster in the 13th RD, whats the problem?
Tell us who that guaranteed 13th rounder is that will replace a failed first rounder. The answer is that players like Foster are nothing but LUCK.I agree that Foster should have been rated higher than a 13th rounder. But anyone who says that they expected him to produce like he did is a liar.Getting first round production out of a 13th rounder is being lucky, because it almost never happens.
I don't know about luck.Picking up people off WW, is some skill and being attentive.I'm just saying, you can win your league with your 1st RD pick flopping.Pretty sure it happens often.
 
so i have the 5th pick in a 10 man league non ppr im hoping for rice but if hes gone do i take johnson?
:goodposting: I'm expecting Foster, Peterson, Rice and Charles to go 1-4 in my PPR, leaving me deciding between CJ, McCoy, AJ or Rodgers. Normally a no-brainer, but I just don't see any progress at all, and thinking this could turn into a VJax situation.
 
I'm picking 4th overall in a PPR high performance league tonight (bonuses for longer TD's and for players scoring out of their element, ie a RB catching a TD or a QB rushing one). I completely anticipate CJ being there. I foresee the first 3 going Foster, AP, Rice, in no particular order. If he was signed already, I'd take him in a second. But I have to hit a home run with my first round pick, and right now, he isn't a home run. Considering McCoy there, but I have my reservations about both him and Charles. So that leaves me with either CJ, McCoy, Charles, or possibly even Aaron Rodgers. Damn I wish I was one pick higher in the draft right now.

 
Ugh our 12x18 PPR just started with 2RB, 3WR, and 1UTIL. It's a 3RR and I'm tucked nicely in the 6 hole where I've been mocking either one of the top 5 RB's or a choice of AJ or McCoy but now if AJ goes 5th ... I'm not sure WHAT to do. There's no reason I should take Calvin over McCoy but if CJ reports he SHOULD blow away McCoy's production ... but RISKY. I'm *really* hoping he goes 5th (the top 4 have picked and #5 is on the 12 hour clock) and I can just consider McCoy/AJ and not worry about the CJ factor.
who were the top 4??? Im guessing it was Foster/charles/Rice/AP
 
CJ went 5th in our draft this morning. Owner passed on Ringer in the 12th so I grabbed him. :shrug:

 
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you MUST have your top pick pan out.
this is not true at all. otherwise, many years the drafters in the late first round would have little chance. feast or famine should be the goal of a fantasy player/drafter bc of the steep payout structure. you dont make any money having a solid team in the top 75% of your leagues. you make money with outlier teams that are better than 11 others.
:goodposting:If your top pick last year was Deangelo Williams, but you picked Arian Foster in the 13th RD, whats the problem?
Tell us who that guaranteed 13th rounder is that will replace a failed first rounder. The answer is that players like Foster are nothing but LUCK.I agree that Foster should have been rated higher than a 13th rounder. But anyone who says that they expected him to produce like he did is a liar.Getting first round production out of a 13th rounder is being lucky, because it almost never happens.
I don't know about luck.Picking up people off WW, is some skill and being attentive.I'm just saying, you can win your league with your 1st RD pick flopping.Pretty sure it happens often.
The people who won their leagues last year were the people who picked Foster in the 4th or later and then picked Vick late or on the waiver wire.
 
The people who won their leagues last year were the people who picked Foster in the 4th or later and then picked Vick late or on the waiver wire.

Wrong. I picked Foster in the 4th, Jammal Charles in third, picked Vick and Hillis off waivers, and didn't make the playoffs.

 
you MUST have your top pick pan out.
this is not true at all. otherwise, many years the drafters in the late first round would have little chance. feast or famine should be the goal of a fantasy player/drafter bc of the steep payout structure. you dont make any money having a solid team in the top 75% of your leagues. you make money with outlier teams that are better than 11 others.
:goodposting:If your top pick last year was Deangelo Williams, but you picked Arian Foster in the 13th RD, whats the problem?
Tell us who that guaranteed 13th rounder is that will replace a failed first rounder. The answer is that players like Foster are nothing but LUCK.I agree that Foster should have been rated higher than a 13th rounder. But anyone who says that they expected him to produce like he did is a liar.Getting first round production out of a 13th rounder is being lucky, because it almost never happens.
I don't know about luck.Picking up people off WW, is some skill and being attentive.I'm just saying, you can win your league with your 1st RD pick flopping.Pretty sure it happens often.
The people who won their leagues last year were the people who picked Foster in the 4th or later and then picked Vick late or on the waiver wire.
Not having Arian Foster won me my league last year since I played him in the playoffs week 15.
 
I'm still going full speed ahead on him. In our keeper auction tonight I got him for 20% of the total cap. Behind several wideouts and such.

Although in that league if he holds out into the season, I can always cut him and regain the cap space.

 
Got him at 1.11 in an FPC draft yesterday. Reached for Ringer in the 9th, and grabbed Harper in the 18th. Nervous about it, but couldn't pass up the upside on him, massive possible reward for what I would consider to be a lower relative risk, IMO. He will play at some stage this season.

One player can't single-handedly kill your chances if you draft a good overall club and have a bit of luck (luck is always a factor, period).

 
Personally I'd take him right at around 1.8 given the circumstances. Even if their was not a contract dispute I'd probably be reaching for Ringer at some point if CJ was my first round pick. Love it when my top rb's have very capable handcuffs.

How do you not swing for the fences and take him if you are in a position where he drops to you in the second?

1.9 Calvin

2.4 CJ

Have to reach for Ringer by 1-2 rounds perhaps.

Best case scenario I'm starting Calvin and CJ week 1 while preventing another owner from getting a discounted CJ. Worst case I'm starting Calvin and Ringer week 1. That's not exactly bad. I'm going to pass this opportunity up because I will have to reach for Ringer at some point in the draft? This is a no-brainer IMO.

How can you pass that up? To get M. Forte at 2.4?

When opportunites like this arise to gain an edge you have to take them. I can see passing on him in the first but not in the second. Wish my draft was not 9/5.

 
I see a lot of folks overly preoccupied with Week 1 of the season.

Assuming you have enough faith in the rest of your team (and your drafting/waiver wire/trade abilities) to make the playoffs, what you should be concerned about is what CJ does in December. No way I'm passing on him and taking some lesser player out of fear. In it to win it.
Before we praise what CJ will do in December, we should look at last years results.Weeks 12 thru 17 in my league CJ avg 11.2 ppg. ranked 12th in RBs. Had 3 weeks out of 6 with 6 pts or less.
:rolleyes: Weeks 13 thru 17 in my league CJ ranked 5th in RBs.

Weeks 14 thru 18 in my league the difference between Foster-Charles-Rice-CJ (top 4 in the last month) was 6 points. Total.

 
Took him at 9 in a non ppr last night. couldnt resist and it helped that i didnt like any of the other options.

 

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