That seems pretty short-sighted, how often do you get a chance at an elite RB and WR at the turn? Your leaguemates COULD be handing the keys to the Corvette but you are going to take the moped because you don't want to wake the neighbors when you come home late...'iNeedCoffee said:Agree 100 percent. Guys who usually hold out during training camps and on through the preseason usually get hurt sometime during the regular season or even struggle to put up good numbers. I have the 12th pick in a 12 team standard scoring league and as of now, I'm not even looking at CJ unless he falls deep into the third round. I just see more risk than reward with CJ currently. I would rather have someone like Mendenhall or Turner, one of the elite receivers, or maybe grab an elite QB where I'm drafting at.'Funkley said:I agree that the risk isnt him missing games. Its reporting last minute and getting hurt.
Unbelievable. Sorry, but I think you guys are crazy.'iNeedCoffee said:, I'm not even looking at CJ unless he falls deep into the third round.
'Captain Hook said:At What Point Do You Consider Chris Johnson?
Right after the Titans do - and not before
If you DO draft him and right now it shouldn't be in the first round, not sure about the second, then you HAVE to spend a fairly early pick on Javon Ringer
I get that you do this for a living and I don't, but I couldn't disagree with you more. I really think people are passing up an elite RB based on a holdout which is unlikely to last through the end of the preseason. Nobody knows how this will work out and we'll have to see what happens. I can understand passing him up in the first 5-7 picks because of this. But I think that if you wait any longer than that you're going to regret it.'Captain Hook said:At What Point Do You Consider Chris Johnson?
Right after the Titans do - and not before
If you DO draft him and right now it shouldn't be in the first round, not sure about the second, then you HAVE to spend a fairly early pick on Javon RingerHe's down to 31st on my non-PPR overall as of today, mostly due to the GINORMOUS contract that Fitzgerald got. 15th on my PPR overall. Essentially, those rankings say "let someone else take the risk on an extended holdout happening". IMO the chances for at least some lost games is now pretty high for Johnson. Perhaps even a Vincent Jackson type situation.
The Titans are very, very stubborn about dealing with holdouts, and they don't want to cave to anybody. As others have pointed out, it's not like they are going to win the division or go to the playoffs this year anyway, not with IND/HOU in the AFC South. They have serviceable backs in Ringer and Harper, and they may just show Johnson they intend to play without him if he continues to hold out.
The other scenario I can see is Johnson coming in, but then having a sudden "hamstring injury" that keeps him off the field and out of practices until a new contract is done. Not sure how the Titans would react to that, but again it'd still be lost time.
This one is getting rancorous and bitter IMO.
To me it's the injury risk of a guy who already had a lot of carries coming back and not being able to STAY healthy. I think it's enough to drop him from top 3 to 7-10. By that point depending on the format I think you still HAVE to take him.I see a lot of folks overly preoccupied with Week 1 of the season.Assuming you have enough faith in the rest of your team (and your drafting/waiver wire/trade abilities) to make the playoffs, what you should be concerned about is what CJ does in December. No way I'm passing on him and taking some lesser player out of fear. In it to win it.
Before we praise what CJ will do in December, we should look at last years results.Weeks 12 thru 17 in my league CJ avg 11.2 ppg. ranked 12th in RBs. Had 3 weeks out of 6 with 6 pts or less.I see a lot of folks overly preoccupied with Week 1 of the season.Assuming you have enough faith in the rest of your team (and your drafting/waiver wire/trade abilities) to make the playoffs, what you should be concerned about is what CJ does in December. No way I'm passing on him and taking some lesser player out of fear. In it to win it.
Well lets assume for a moment CJ is out for a while. How far do you bump up Ringer if Cj misses half over most of the regular season?This could be VJax-esque as far as timeframe goesAs far as I'm concerned, he's a top 3 running back along with Foster and ADP. I'd grab him 3rd overall and and any later than that is to your advantage if he's still on the board. Just be sure to take Ringer late in the draft so you have a filler in week 1 if it becomes necessary.
Most of us draft before half the season is over.Well lets assume for a moment CJ is out for a while. How far do you bump up Ringer if Cj misses half over most of the regular season?This could be VJax-esque as far as timeframe goesAs far as I'm concerned, he's a top 3 running back along with Foster and ADP. I'd grab him 3rd overall and and any later than that is to your advantage if he's still on the board. Just be sure to take Ringer late in the draft so you have a filler in week 1 if it becomes necessary.
Bold is great, and I see why you don't want to overpay for Ringer. But at least pick up Harper off the WW or at the end of the auction.I'm making a bold move. I'm getting him at 2nd round prices in an auction. Other owners are trying to squeeze me with Javon Ringer before CJ's auction is even over. I haven't even bid once. I'm taking a stance that he plays week 1 and is injury free. FF is such a crapshoot, but every year there's that player or situation where midway through the season you are either cursing the obviousness in hindsight orThis year it's Chris Johnson.
i think his injury risk is being incredibly overrated. hes an elite athlete and specimen that has missed a single game at the most grueling position over 3 seasons while maintaining a huge workload. 294, 408 and 360 touches. his injury risk may be a tad higher than usual, but its still gonna be one of the lowest in the rb pool. im sure he staying in shape and im sure he will adapt to the speed of the game immediately bc thats what the elites do.'iNeedCoffee said:Agree 100 percent. Guys who usually hold out during training camps and on through the preseason usually get hurt sometime during the regular season or even struggle to put up good numbers.'Funkley said:I agree that the risk isnt him missing games. Its reporting last minute and getting hurt.
The other side of this you MUST consider, however, is, in a redraft, you MUST have your top pick pan out. Otherwise, you might as well just mail money somewhere and not even follow the results (assuming your league has competent owners). So, when you say "a holdout which is unlikely to last through the end of the preseason", you MUST be prepared to live with it IF it does. Sure, it doesn't sound like much but even if he shows up 4 days before the season, he has to get into shape...real shape...and he has to get on page with the new coach and the new teammates...and he ahs to run the risk of having those minor injuries that often come with being out of shape. So, in the end, you MUST consider that you may not have him for 1-3 games (or maybe more). That's a lot to lose when you can't field your #1 overall pick.I get that you do this for a living and I don't, but I couldn't disagree with you more. I really think people are passing up an elite RB based on a holdout which is unlikely to last through the end of the preseason. Nobody knows how this will work out and we'll have to see what happens. I can understand passing him up in the first 5-7 picks because of this. But I think that if you wait any longer than that you're going to regret it.'Captain Hook said:At What Point Do You Consider Chris Johnson?
Right after the Titans do - and not before
If you DO draft him and right now it shouldn't be in the first round, not sure about the second, then you HAVE to spend a fairly early pick on Javon RingerHe's down to 31st on my non-PPR overall as of today, mostly due to the GINORMOUS contract that Fitzgerald got. 15th on my PPR overall. Essentially, those rankings say "let someone else take the risk on an extended holdout happening". IMO the chances for at least some lost games is now pretty high for Johnson. Perhaps even a Vincent Jackson type situation.
The Titans are very, very stubborn about dealing with holdouts, and they don't want to cave to anybody. As others have pointed out, it's not like they are going to win the division or go to the playoffs this year anyway, not with IND/HOU in the AFC South. They have serviceable backs in Ringer and Harper, and they may just show Johnson they intend to play without him if he continues to hold out.
The other scenario I can see is Johnson coming in, but then having a sudden "hamstring injury" that keeps him off the field and out of practices until a new contract is done. Not sure how the Titans would react to that, but again it'd still be lost time.
This one is getting rancorous and bitter IMO.
this is not true at all. otherwise, many years the drafters in the late first round would have little chance. feast or famine should be the goal of a fantasy player/drafter bc of the steep payout structure. you dont make any money having a solid team in the top 75% of your leagues. you make money with outlier teams that are better than 11 others.you MUST have your top pick pan out.
this is not true at all. otherwise, many years the drafters in the late first round would have little chance. feast or famine should be the goal of a fantasy player/drafter bc of the steep payout structure. you dont make any money having a solid team in the top 75% of your leagues. you make money with outlier teams that are better than 11 others.you MUST have your top pick pan out.
Tell us who that guaranteed 13th rounder is that will replace a failed first rounder. The answer is that players like Foster are nothing but LUCK.I agree that Foster should have been rated higher than a 13th rounder. But anyone who says that they expected him to produce like he did is a liar.Getting first round production out of a 13th rounder is being lucky, because it almost never happens.this is not true at all. otherwise, many years the drafters in the late first round would have little chance. feast or famine should be the goal of a fantasy player/drafter bc of the steep payout structure. you dont make any money having a solid team in the top 75% of your leagues. you make money with outlier teams that are better than 11 others.you MUST have your top pick pan out.If your top pick last year was Deangelo Williams, but you picked Arian Foster in the 13th RD, whats the problem?
Arian Foster went in at 4.02 in our league last year.Tell us who that guaranteed 13th rounder is that will replace a failed first rounder. The answer is that players like Foster are nothing but LUCK.I agree that Foster should have been rated higher than a 13th rounder. But anyone who says that they expected him to produce like he did is a liar.Getting first round production out of a 13th rounder is being lucky, because it almost never happens.this is not true at all. otherwise, many years the drafters in the late first round would have little chance. feast or famine should be the goal of a fantasy player/drafter bc of the steep payout structure. you dont make any money having a solid team in the top 75% of your leagues. you make money with outlier teams that are better than 11 others.you MUST have your top pick pan out.If your top pick last year was Deangelo Williams, but you picked Arian Foster in the 13th RD, whats the problem?
Emmitt Smith held out for the first 2 games of the 1993 season. He returned for the remaining 14 games (starting 13 of them), ran for 1486 yards/9 TDs and received 414 yards/1 TD. No injuries at all.Serious question. Can anyone remember a guy who held out and missed all of training camp that didn't have substantial hamstring issues during the season? Especially a speed guy?
Expectations aside, I tend to look for some "lottery tickets" at the end of the draft. Missed Foster, but did manage to snag Hillis off the WW week one, and that was because he was on my radar.So yes, missing on Johnson in the first round would hurt, but I don't think it would be fatal.'aburt19 said:Tell us who that guaranteed 13th rounder is that will replace a failed first rounder. The answer is that players like Foster are nothing but LUCK.I agree that Foster should have been rated higher than a 13th rounder. But anyone who says that they expected him to produce like he did is a liar.Getting first round production out of a 13th rounder is being lucky, because it almost never happens.'comfortably numb said:'cvnpoka said:this is not true at all. otherwise, many years the drafters in the late first round would have little chance. feast or famine should be the goal of a fantasy player/drafter bc of the steep payout structure. you dont make any money having a solid team in the top 75% of your leagues. you make money with outlier teams that are better than 11 others.you MUST have your top pick pan out.If your top pick last year was Deangelo Williams, but you picked Arian Foster in the 13th RD, whats the problem?
Any sense of direction out of Titans management regarding this situation?Chris Johnsonretweet by espn_afcsouthFlying out to Nashville tonight to meet with Joel and the GM in the morning to see which way were going. Could get better or worst
I don't know about luck.Picking up people off WW, is some skill and being attentive.I'm just saying, you can win your league with your 1st RD pick flopping.Pretty sure it happens often.'aburt19 said:Tell us who that guaranteed 13th rounder is that will replace a failed first rounder. The answer is that players like Foster are nothing but LUCK.I agree that Foster should have been rated higher than a 13th rounder. But anyone who says that they expected him to produce like he did is a liar.Getting first round production out of a 13th rounder is being lucky, because it almost never happens.'comfortably numb said:'cvnpoka said:this is not true at all. otherwise, many years the drafters in the late first round would have little chance. feast or famine should be the goal of a fantasy player/drafter bc of the steep payout structure. you dont make any money having a solid team in the top 75% of your leagues. you make money with outlier teams that are better than 11 others.you MUST have your top pick pan out.If your top pick last year was Deangelo Williams, but you picked Arian Foster in the 13th RD, whats the problem?
so i have the 5th pick in a 10 man league non ppr im hoping for rice but if hes gone do i take johnson?
who were the top 4??? Im guessing it was Foster/charles/Rice/APUgh our 12x18 PPR just started with 2RB, 3WR, and 1UTIL. It's a 3RR and I'm tucked nicely in the 6 hole where I've been mocking either one of the top 5 RB's or a choice of AJ or McCoy but now if AJ goes 5th ... I'm not sure WHAT to do. There's no reason I should take Calvin over McCoy but if CJ reports he SHOULD blow away McCoy's production ... but RISKY. I'm *really* hoping he goes 5th (the top 4 have picked and #5 is on the 12 hour clock) and I can just consider McCoy/AJ and not worry about the CJ factor.
harper - potentially a starting NFL rbringer - productive but more of a career backup/COP backimoGrab Harper too?
The people who won their leagues last year were the people who picked Foster in the 4th or later and then picked Vick late or on the waiver wire.I don't know about luck.Picking up people off WW, is some skill and being attentive.I'm just saying, you can win your league with your 1st RD pick flopping.Pretty sure it happens often.Tell us who that guaranteed 13th rounder is that will replace a failed first rounder. The answer is that players like Foster are nothing but LUCK.I agree that Foster should have been rated higher than a 13th rounder. But anyone who says that they expected him to produce like he did is a liar.Getting first round production out of a 13th rounder is being lucky, because it almost never happens.this is not true at all. otherwise, many years the drafters in the late first round would have little chance. feast or famine should be the goal of a fantasy player/drafter bc of the steep payout structure. you dont make any money having a solid team in the top 75% of your leagues. you make money with outlier teams that are better than 11 others.you MUST have your top pick pan out.If your top pick last year was Deangelo Williams, but you picked Arian Foster in the 13th RD, whats the problem?
Total tangent but how is this even possible.Wrong. I picked Foster in the 4th, Jammal Charles in third, picked Vick and Hillis off waivers, and didn't make the playoffs.
#1 in points allowed in the league. Finished 7-7.Total tangent but how is this even possible.Wrong. I picked Foster in the 4th, Jammal Charles in third, picked Vick and Hillis off waivers, and didn't make the playoffs.
Not having Arian Foster won me my league last year since I played him in the playoffs week 15.The people who won their leagues last year were the people who picked Foster in the 4th or later and then picked Vick late or on the waiver wire.I don't know about luck.Picking up people off WW, is some skill and being attentive.I'm just saying, you can win your league with your 1st RD pick flopping.Pretty sure it happens often.Tell us who that guaranteed 13th rounder is that will replace a failed first rounder. The answer is that players like Foster are nothing but LUCK.I agree that Foster should have been rated higher than a 13th rounder. But anyone who says that they expected him to produce like he did is a liar.Getting first round production out of a 13th rounder is being lucky, because it almost never happens.this is not true at all. otherwise, many years the drafters in the late first round would have little chance. feast or famine should be the goal of a fantasy player/drafter bc of the steep payout structure. you dont make any money having a solid team in the top 75% of your leagues. you make money with outlier teams that are better than 11 others.you MUST have your top pick pan out.If your top pick last year was Deangelo Williams, but you picked Arian Foster in the 13th RD, whats the problem?
Before we praise what CJ will do in December, we should look at last years results.Weeks 12 thru 17 in my league CJ avg 11.2 ppg. ranked 12th in RBs. Had 3 weeks out of 6 with 6 pts or less.I see a lot of folks overly preoccupied with Week 1 of the season.
Assuming you have enough faith in the rest of your team (and your drafting/waiver wire/trade abilities) to make the playoffs, what you should be concerned about is what CJ does in December. No way I'm passing on him and taking some lesser player out of fear. In it to win it.
Perfect argument for using victory points#1 in points allowed in the league. Finished 7-7.Total tangent but how is this even possible.Wrong. I picked Foster in the 4th, Jammal Charles in third, picked Vick and Hillis off waivers, and didn't make the playoffs.