Auction - implied depth (1 Viewer)

[schu]

Less than 60 min from the 1st nominee of our 14th auction season. Here's the final thought going thru my mind.

The reason people are passive in auctions and miss out on studs is because they don't understand implied depth. Auctions take a longer time than drafts and therefore often have smaller rosters (18 or less) or combine auction with draft to expedite.

This results in a misvaluation of the top tier players especially at QB, RB, and WR. With more on the waiver wire, it will always be easier to find a startable RB2 or WR2 during the season than a QB1, RB1, and WR1. In effect, they are already on your roster just not officially. You need to spend money on startable players not depth. This is even more pronounced when there are only a few rounds of auction mixed with draft.

I suggest the following rules of thumb for QB, RB, and WR:

Always be willing to pay at least 100% of calculated value for tier 1.

Bump up tier 1 max by 20%

Bump up tier 2 max by 10%

Knock down tier 3 max by 25%

Knock down tier 4 max by 50%

These modifications will be your new targets. Use this and you'll like your line-ups a whole lot better than letting the auction come to you.

 

[beto]

Great post schu

We finished up our 13th year of auction last week and I agree with you. We have seen all different types of things happen over the years but it has really evolved to what you mention above, esp. with the top players.

A thing that was really pronouced this year was the first RB off the board went for much better value than the last elite starter that was brought up for auction.

 

[GoRaiders]

A thing that was really pronouced this year was the first RB off the board went for much better value than the last elite starter that was brought up for auction.

This happens every year in my league, yet somehow only a few people understand this. I will usually go after the first player in a certain tier nomed, knowing that he will be the cheapest player off the board. The last player in that tier always goes for way too much.Example this year, Fitz was the first nomed WR. I was not real excited about going after Fitz (I was targeting Megatron, who I ended up getting later for $40) and just like everyone else wondering what the QB deal was in the desert. Well first WR nomed with some ??'s and I got him for $35. Dre went for $75. Yikes. I pick up 2 top WRs for the same cost as Dre. Easy pickings.

 

[GoRaiders]

You need to spend money on startable players not depth.

I agree with this to a point. You definitely need to spend money on your stud starters, but I would prefer not to overpay as much as you state. Overpaying too much leaves you with little cash for the sleeper plays at the end. Most of the guys in my league burn their cash on starters, leaving them with $1 dudes at the end (which equals garbage that will be on the wire after Week 1). I picked up the entire TB running game for $3 (Caddy and Huggy). Last year I got Ced Benson for $4. The guy that had Mike Bush nomed DMC for a buck, oops I bid $2 and he can't go higher. Score for me, and trade talks have already started.The only depth I go for is RB, all other positions I agree no need to save money for depth. There are a ton of WRs on the wire that are capable bye week fill-ins.

 

[the_Truth]

Yeah I agree more with goraiders, though it depends on the culture of your league.

In my main auction league(12 teams) the consensus strategy is to overbid on studs, and fill the rest of your roster with $1 players. So I go against the grain, pick up lots of depth and then make trades when other teams are desperate.

Last years RBs:

Grant, $28

RBrown, $33

Moreno, $12

Bush, $9

Benson, $7

Only Moreno was on my winning squad at the end of the year.

This year I think I got even more value:

Best $32

Addai $23

Barber $10

Forte $19

Bradshaw $15

Harrison $28(had a little extra at the end after I got Cutler for $4).

I much prefer the depth strategy to blowing $180 on CJ and AP.

 

[beto]

A thing that was really pronouced this year was the first RB off the board went for much better value than the last elite starter that was brought up for auction.

This happens every year in my league, yet somehow only a few people understand this. I will usually go after the first player in a certain tier nomed, knowing that he will be the cheapest player off the board. The last player in that tier always goes for way too much.Example this year, Fitz was the first nomed WR. I was not real excited about going after Fitz (I was targeting Megatron, who I ended up getting later for $40) and just like everyone else wondering what the QB deal was in the desert. Well first WR nomed with some ??'s and I got him for $35. Dre went for $75. Yikes. I pick up 2 top WRs for the same cost as Dre. Easy pickings.

NICE.I think it's a balance on your other point. Saving money for sleepers in the end is a must. I got Aaron Rodgers and Finley the last couple of years before they blew up.

 

[karmarooster]

Less than 60 min from the 1st nominee of our 14th auction season. Here's the final thought going thru my mind.The reason people are passive in auctions and miss out on studs is because they don't understand implied depth. Auctions take a longer time than drafts and therefore often have smaller rosters (18 or less) or combine auction with draft to expedite.This results in a misvaluation of the top tier players especially at QB, RB, and WR. With more on the waiver wire, it will always be easier to find a startable RB2 or WR2 during the season than a QB1, RB1, and WR1. In effect, they are already on your roster just not officially. You need to spend money on startable players not depth. This is even more pronounced when there are only a few rounds of auction mixed with draft.I suggest the following rules of thumb for QB, RB, and WR:Always be willing to pay at least 100% of calculated value for tier 1.Bump up tier 1 max by 20%Bump up tier 2 max by 10%Knock down tier 3 max by 25%Knock down tier 4 max by 50%These modifications will be your new targets. Use this and you'll like your line-ups a whole lot better than letting the auction come to you.

I think what you're saying is on point beyond auctions - regular drafts. League size and the number of rounds are two concepts that i am realizing are undervalued. If you have a 10 team league with 18 rounds, there will be at least decent bye week players: WR3s in abundance, a decent supply of RB2/3s, a ton of backup QBs and TEs, and the occasional Ryan Grant, MSW, Reuben Droughns-type waiver-wire-wonder.With smaller leagues and fewer rounds, top QBs, top TEs, and the handful of elite RBs and WRs are really valuable. depth is meaningless, studs across the board are all that matter. any positional weakness is a huge disadvantage. to evaluate any trade, simply look for the best player exchanged and who ever gets him is the winner of the deal. quality over quantity.in contrast, the 12 team/20 round draft is the opposite: RB2-5 and WR3-4 are way more important, and QBs/TEs are way less. as long as you can get replacement level production from QB and TE (think Orton/Stafford/Young/Campbell/Moore), you're better served taking pick after pick at RB and WR.14-16 team leagues - depth is KING. OP do u notice a difference 10 v 12 teams auctions?

 

[nightmare]

Did the opposite and regret it. Last year I had a dynasty auction

playoff team with S Jackson-$84 and C Benson-$14, $250 cap.

Dropped S Jackson kept Benson, acquired R Bush-$28, Hardesty-$22,

C Williams-$10, Maroney-$3, Porti-$4. Jackson sold for $78.

I now have a mediocre team with P manning-$38 and Bush as my two

highest price players. I'd love S Jackson back. One of those RB's might hit

but I have a HDIS head ache until one does. It is PPR. R Matthews went for $53

K Moreno $41. Not a lot of RB's get put back in the auction pool.

D Williams is the 2nd highest price RB@$67. An owner cut M Schaub @$38

He ended up selling for $46. C Henne and A Smith are the only QB's on that owners

roster now.

PAY FOR THE STUDS. Save some for the "sleepers". Let some one else pile up the

mid tier performers.

 

[the_Truth]

PAY FOR THE STUDS. Save some for the "sleepers". Let some one else pile up the

mid tier performers.

Yes please, leave me all the RB2/3s I can get my hands on. At least 1 or 2 will overperform if I have 5-6.

 

[GroveDiesel]

Had my first auction this weekend and I think the worst thing you can do is pay too much at the QB position this year. I paid WAY too much for Aaron Rodgers. I was actually trying to bid him up and got stuck with him for $50 with a $200 cap. Which when paired with Ray Rice for $65 pretty much blew up my draft. I ended up with Clinton Portis as my #2 RB, and Laurent Robinson and Malcolm Floyd as my 2 starting WRs.

In a 12 team, 16 round auction, if you pay top dollar for a RB, you'd better save your money for a while. It made me sick to my stomach seeing Favre go for $12, Flacco for $9. I got Eli Manning for $6. I would have been ok with Manning as my starter if it mean I had much better WRs. Lots of second tier WRs went for around $20.

I'm not sure how it would even be possible to win a stud QB, stud RB AND stud WR and be capable of filling out the rest of your starting roster with anything more than $1 scrubs at the end.

 

[Black]

I had an odd experience with my auction yesterday...10-team, 17-roster spot, non-PPR, TD-heavy league.

Bidding was aggressive at first, with teams overpaying (about 5% at least) per player. I assumed I would grab 1-3 good players, then sit back and wait for all the 5th-8th round values to fill out my team for 4-5 bucks each when everyone was out of cash.

But, a funny thing happened. I think people had buyer's remose or just freaked that they blew 70-100 bucks on two players, and the next group of RBs off the board went for crazy discount. The worst thing was I had already grabbed 2 decent RB1-2 types at below their market value), so wasn't needing the RBs (but still jumped in and grabbed a few).

Later in the draft, it became apparent that this sudden reversal of spending was going to hose about 1/2 the teams. I kept waiting to 'own' the auction with the highest "max bid" but couldn't do it...players kept popping up at great value, I'd spend and be one of the teams with the least money.

It didn't matter. By the times those teams did start spending, they were grappling over waiver wire fodder. Guys that I wouldn't spend 1 buck on were going for 10-16 bucks. Every time I nominated, I'd throw out a "teir 1" kicker and they'd go for like 10 bucks!!

So, many teams seemed to bid up crap, blew wads scrapping over $1 players at the end (when my roster was comfortably filled with only $2 left), and they still ended up leaving money on the table.

 

[Your Mom]

A thing that was really pronouced this year was the first RB off the board went for much better value than the last elite starter that was brought up for auction.

This happens every year in my league, yet somehow only a few people understand this. I will usually go after the first player in a certain tier nomed, knowing that he will be the cheapest player off the board. The last player in that tier always goes for way too much.Example this year, Fitz was the first nomed WR. I was not real excited about going after Fitz (I was targeting Megatron, who I ended up getting later for $40) and just like everyone else wondering what the QB deal was in the desert. Well first WR nomed with some ??'s and I got him for $35. Dre went for $75. Yikes. I pick up 2 top WRs for the same cost as Dre. Easy pickings.

Same thing happened at my auction. I got Miles Austin and Randy moss for $110 total and A. Johnson went for $105. The top 4 RBs, top 3 Qbs, top WR went for crazy amounts compared to the guys right below.

 

[GoRaiders]

This year I think I got even more value:Best $32Addai $23Barber $10Forte $19Bradshaw $15Harrison $28(had a little extra at the end after I got Cutler for $4).I much prefer the depth strategy to blowing $180 on CJ and AP.

We are PPR, and I scored Jerome for $14 and Bradshaw for $8. Bradshaw was not even on my radar pre draft, but for $8 and I can keep him next year for $13, it was a no brainer. Me and one other guy were in a bidding war for Jerome. His max bid was $14, so he lost out. Forte went for $25, Best for $30, Addai for $30, Barber for $12. I would have loved to get Best at $30, but already went with S Jax and P Thomas as my lead backs. You got some nice value as well, all of those backs can start for you and/or turn into nice trade bait.

 

[GoRaiders]

Had my first auction this weekend and I think the worst thing you can do is pay too much at the QB position this year. I paid WAY too much for Aaron Rodgers. I was actually trying to bid him up and got stuck with him for $50 with a $200 cap.

Agreed. A Rodgers went for $51 in my league. The guy that got him is running Wells and J Stew for his RBs with Bernard Scott as his only bench RB. Ouch. He was stuck with 6 guys for a buck at the end of the draft. His season is over before it started.

 

[GoRaiders]

PAY FOR THE STUDS. Save some for the "sleepers". Let some one else pile up the

mid tier performers.

Yes please, leave me all the RB2/3s I can get my hands on. At least 1 or 2 will overperform if I have 5-6.

I agree, if you pick up a handful of RB's you are bound to find a few gems. I drafted 8 RB's (15 player draft), usually draft 9, but took V Jax as a sleeper WR and possible keeper instead. The one thing I have found at least in my league, RB's drafted in the teens usually don't pan out. A few do, but for some reason a majority of these guys don't. Last year it was Beanie, Willie Parker, Derrick Ward, Lynch, Chester Taylor, F Jones, Don Brown, Larry Johnson. T Jones and Moreno were also in this group, but they produced.I like to feast on the < $10, last year it was Ricky and Ced Benson, this year was Bradshaw, Ricky, Caddy, DMC. I went over on Harrison, but that was only due to one other RB shark in the league wanting him badly. So odds are against me on Harrison producing, let's hope I made the right call. At the end of the year the $15 you spent on that crap RB you wish you would have used on a better stud. The $4 you spent on Ced Benson, doesn't hurt you if he doesn't pan out, and makes your season when he does.

 

[PatsFan72]

$400 10 team PPR (higher points for TEs)

23 roster spots

start 2 flex

$64 Drew Brees 16%

$100 Ray Rice 25%

$89 Andre Johnson 22%

An expensive top 3

Ended with...

D Brees

E Manning

R Rice

M Barber

C Buckhalter

F Taylor

J Snelling

B Westbrook

A Johnson

C Ochocinco

H Nicks

Santana Moss

J Cotchery

L Moore

P Crayton (WW)

V Davis

H Miller

Z Miller

With 63% of my money going to 3 starters, I still ended up with a good team that is a little light at RB2 (was gunning for LT, but 4 other guys were also high on him and he ended up going for around what most RB2 did)

So, I agree, pay for the studs.

Having said that, each auction takes on a life of it's own, and you will almost always need to adjust things on the fly. If you read through this thread you'll get an idea of how different each one can be.

 

[blend]

interesting. I just found this thread after searching for articles on Auction on the main site. Is it just me or are there very few articles on Auction here? Seems there used to be a perfect auction article plus others????

 

[Topes]

I suggest the following rules of thumb for QB, RB, and WR:Always be willing to pay at least 100% of calculated value for tier 1.Bump up tier 1 max by 20%Bump up tier 2 max by 10%Knock down tier 3 max by 25%Knock down tier 4 max by 50%These modifications will be your new targets. Use this and you'll like your line-ups a whole lot better than letting the auction come to you.

Pretty close to the way I've always looked at it. I've never come to exact percentages, but bench spots are for dollar players. Backup WRs come off the wire.I just know the top prices suggested are always too low, and the bottom prices are too high.I see these mags that have expert auctions and they've usually got the elite players going for <30% of cap. I have my doubts that these auctions actually even happen, and aren't just made up by two guys, and everybody signs off.

A thing that was really pronouced this year was the first RB off the board went for much better value than the last elite starter that was brought up for auction.

This happens every year in my league, yet somehow only a few people understand this.

It took ten years, but folks in my league finally sre starting to understand this. I probably blabbed too much about how I exploited this. It's my fault.But, seriously, often true. Most folks tend to be gunshy at teh start, especially when the cupboard is not bare. They still have a Plan B and a Plan C.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

interesting. I just found this thread after searching for articles on Auction on the main site. Is it just me or are there very few articles on Auction here? Seems there used to be a perfect auction article plus others????

Yes - to whoevere's reading - please more articles re: auction strategy.I see one up on the articles page now, but it was posted well after the auction drafts I was in had already occurred.

 

[GoRaiders]

Pretty close to the way I've always looked at it. I've never come to exact percentages, but bench spots are for dollar players. Backup WRs come off the wire.I just know the top prices suggested are always too low, and the bottom prices are too high.I see these mags that have expert auctions and they've usually got the elite players going for <30% of cap. I have my doubts that these auctions actually even happen, and aren't just made up by two guys, and everybody signs off.

Mags prices are worthless, you really need historical data from your league to determine where prices are going to be. I use the DD, modify it to get it close to my league historical average and then add in notes where the tiers are located.Dollar players on your pine, yikes, that is a sure sign of overpaying for your starters. At the end of my draft, my actual dollars spent will be $200, but the estimated price of all my players will be way north of that. This year it was $282, meaning based on FBG projections, my team should have cost me $282, but I only spent $199 to get those players. If you ovepay for studs, your team value will be real close to the actual amount you spent, or with many teams that go this route it is less, meaning they spent $200 for $180 of value.