If you had Mark Andrews on your roster, would you trade Andrews for Isaiah Likely?
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Baltimore Tight Ends - Would you trade Andrews for Likely? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Joe Bryant
- Start date
How worried are we?
It's one game.
I'm pretty dang worried.
He just seems so less athletic than Likely. (To be fair, lots of TEs do)
But the thing I can't unsee is the fall down after the reception late in the game where the turf monster grabbed him and they couldn't convert.
Compared to Likely's TD run and hesi at the end to score looking more like Lamar Jackson than a TE.
One game. But man.
It's one game.
I'm pretty dang worried.
He just seems so less athletic than Likely. (To be fair, lots of TEs do)
But the thing I can't unsee is the fall down after the reception late in the game where the turf monster grabbed him and they couldn't convert.
Compared to Likely's TD run and hesi at the end to score looking more like Lamar Jackson than a TE.
One game. But man.
Talking to our Staffer Sam Wagman this morning on this he said:
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I like NOT to to jump the gun and make an absolute statements on Andrews after one game and given that he may be getting game ready still. I've been a Likely truther since he was drafted and has always been one of my favorite sleeper prospects. He has arrived, so that is a problem for Andrews for sure, but this definitely could still be a headache for fantasy in the short term. I would be careful not to make assumptions on Andrews yet.
shoecrew22
Footballguy
I snagged Likely off waivers before season started as an Andrews owner and started the wrong one last night.
My concern going forward is I'll continue to pick the wrong one and the other will go off each week.
Likely looked really good last night.
My concern going forward is I'll continue to pick the wrong one and the other will go off each week.
Likely looked really good last night.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Andrews looked toasted too
I noticed that too. Sometimes this happens when a particular offense matches against a particular vulnerability in the defense. Sometimes it's less matchup dependent and that guy truly is "his guy". It's why one game sample sizes are so tough.
This game does move fast though.
jm192
Footballguy
We spend all off-season making educated guesses at what we think will happen. There's a million questions and at the end of the day, we're just guessing.
Week 1 comes, and it feels like the curtain was pulled back. It feels like all of the questions get answered. And we know the direction of a given player for the rest of the season.
Likely could have easily had a huge game in week 12, and no one is worried about Andrews. Because it's week 1, we start to believe this is the trajectory. And in some cases it is. But a lot of times, we think we've missed something. When really, things are going to average out. Rashee Rice probably doesn't average 100 yards per game. (Though maybe, he did look amazing.) Lamar probably doesn't rush for 1700+ yards this season.
Week 1 comes, and it feels like the curtain was pulled back. It feels like all of the questions get answered. And we know the direction of a given player for the rest of the season.
Likely could have easily had a huge game in week 12, and no one is worried about Andrews. Because it's week 1, we start to believe this is the trajectory. And in some cases it is. But a lot of times, we think we've missed something. When really, things are going to average out. Rashee Rice probably doesn't average 100 yards per game. (Though maybe, he did look amazing.) Lamar probably doesn't rush for 1700+ yards this season.
jm192
Footballguy
Today is Andrews's 29th birthday. I don't think he has had some massive fall off at 29. Especially when we see tight ends play into their mid 30's.
@Joe Bryant shared a quote from someone saying they don't believe he's still hurt from the car accident. I don't think he's hurt. I think he's not all the way in game shape. He missed 2 weeks of practice. He came back to practice 5 days ago. They showed him on the sideline multiple times, and he looked ABSOLUTELY gassed. I just don't think his body is there on September 6th.
The other issue: The Ravens O-Line was awful last night. He was kept back to block a lot. Maybe he's viewed as the better blocker. Maybe they felt Likely was more able to give them big plays in the passing game. But Andrews seemed to be used as a blocker quite a bit.
So I don't think ability is the issue. I think FAR better days are ahead for Andrews, especially as his conditioning improves. I would lean into the panic, especially if you don't have a great tight end. Some people on Twitter are saying he's droppable. If I can buy him for 25 cents on the dollar where I'm TE needy, I'm willing to bet on the talent.
@Joe Bryant shared a quote from someone saying they don't believe he's still hurt from the car accident. I don't think he's hurt. I think he's not all the way in game shape. He missed 2 weeks of practice. He came back to practice 5 days ago. They showed him on the sideline multiple times, and he looked ABSOLUTELY gassed. I just don't think his body is there on September 6th.
The other issue: The Ravens O-Line was awful last night. He was kept back to block a lot. Maybe he's viewed as the better blocker. Maybe they felt Likely was more able to give them big plays in the passing game. But Andrews seemed to be used as a blocker quite a bit.
So I don't think ability is the issue. I think FAR better days are ahead for Andrews, especially as his conditioning improves. I would lean into the panic, especially if you don't have a great tight end. Some people on Twitter are saying he's droppable. If I can buy him for 25 cents on the dollar where I'm TE needy, I'm willing to bet on the talent.
jm192
Footballguy
The negative/concerns:
Did I mention they kept Andrews in as a blocker alot? That offensive line is bad. They may improve with experience and cohesiveness. But man, I worry he has more games where he gets asked to block more than we'd like.
They used 2 TE sets on 40% according to some random person on Twitter. I'm going to trust that's accurate or close to accurate. They've said all off-season, they want to get Likely on the field. They're doing it.
I think at the end of the year, Andrews probably still has better numbers. But I think Likely probably puts a little dent in the ceiling. If Andrews had 1,000 or 1,100 yard upside--it just got way tougher to get there.
I'd still be looking to buy low off of the week 1 reaction. But I'm also not trying to pay top 5 TE price.
Did I mention they kept Andrews in as a blocker alot? That offensive line is bad. They may improve with experience and cohesiveness. But man, I worry he has more games where he gets asked to block more than we'd like.
They used 2 TE sets on 40% according to some random person on Twitter. I'm going to trust that's accurate or close to accurate. They've said all off-season, they want to get Likely on the field. They're doing it.
I think at the end of the year, Andrews probably still has better numbers. But I think Likely probably puts a little dent in the ceiling. If Andrews had 1,000 or 1,100 yard upside--it just got way tougher to get there.
I'd still be looking to buy low off of the week 1 reaction. But I'm also not trying to pay top 5 TE price.
Likely looked amazing. Yes he could have had an even bigger game for fantasy but past that he was a beast blocking. He’s central to their run game and pass game.
We were told this, beat writers flat said he was the team MVP during camp.
I’m sure Andrews is suffering impact from his car accident, including conditioning issues. He’ll almost surely have better days but I look at this more from angle of how great Likely looks as a total football player and I simply can’t see any scenario he’s not a staple.
Ertz and Goedert were both top 10 TE’s on the same team in the same season. That was the most successful TE fantasy duo other then the NE duo. These two will end up being in the middle of those two, with Likley leading it.
We were told this, beat writers flat said he was the team MVP during camp.
I’m sure Andrews is suffering impact from his car accident, including conditioning issues. He’ll almost surely have better days but I look at this more from angle of how great Likely looks as a total football player and I simply can’t see any scenario he’s not a staple.
Ertz and Goedert were both top 10 TE’s on the same team in the same season. That was the most successful TE fantasy duo other then the NE duo. These two will end up being in the middle of those two, with Likley leading it.
About what would you be willing to pay?
Max Power
Footballguy
If I'm looking at it from a buying/selling angle, I think around TE 15 is where I'm comfortable buying. This is like the Kmet, Musgrave, Sinnott Tier if trying to win now.
Selling, I'd want closer to the TE 12 range. Ferguson, Freiermuth.
I think he's a hold personally, but I don't have a lot of confidence in which direction his season will go.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Who in their right mind would trade Andrews for Likely? I'm not saying Likely won't be worth more, probably not, but wouldn't the smart move be to trade for Likely some other way if you're the Andrews owner?
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
Andrews and Likely are a tandem - the value of either player is probably highest to the owner of the other.
If I owned Andrews, I would have been trying to acquire Likely before last night. If you didn't, that sucks... I feel pretty confident that everyone here saw this time coming, maybe not to the degree it happened last night.
As it rests today, everyone is probably a hold by default. Nobody will take a 3rd or 4th round rookie pick for Andrews and if you are a Likely owner - you probably aren't willing to sell a guy you have held for 3 years for anything shy of a first and based on the sample size... even that might not be sufficient to acquire Likely.
As for Likely, I think he is the best receiver the Ravens have. The endzone targets are appealing. The breakaway speed after stacking defenders is appealing.
If I owned Andrews, I would have been trying to acquire Likely before last night. If you didn't, that sucks... I feel pretty confident that everyone here saw this time coming, maybe not to the degree it happened last night.
As it rests today, everyone is probably a hold by default. Nobody will take a 3rd or 4th round rookie pick for Andrews and if you are a Likely owner - you probably aren't willing to sell a guy you have held for 3 years for anything shy of a first and based on the sample size... even that might not be sufficient to acquire Likely.
As for Likely, I think he is the best receiver the Ravens have. The endzone targets are appealing. The breakaway speed after stacking defenders is appealing.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
A wise man once said, "it's one game".
I'm holding Andrews. In dynasty, I spent the summer hedging bets on Likely at a good value.
My suspicion is that both will be hard to predict. If the Ravens play both like they have suggested, both could be in store for big games...and bust games.
I'm holding Andrews. In dynasty, I spent the summer hedging bets on Likely at a good value.
My suspicion is that both will be hard to predict. If the Ravens play both like they have suggested, both could be in store for big games...and bust games.
fightingillini
Footballguy
If you have a decent second option at TE, it might be worth it to roll the dice and trade Andrews for Likely. While I think Andrews has better numbers the majority of the time, the upside of Likely seems to be too hard to pass up. At best Likely is going to severely cap Andrews upside this year. Andrews will still be a TE1 but more towards the back end and not the elite TE he used to be.
Now that said, it is one week, Andrews definitely did not look 100% and Likely looked awesome. Who knows, maybe BAL schemed to get Likely heavily involved due to matchups. We'll know a lot more next week.
Now that said, it is one week, Andrews definitely did not look 100% and Likely looked awesome. Who knows, maybe BAL schemed to get Likely heavily involved due to matchups. We'll know a lot more next week.
NFL OCs only stop using something that works because of injury or when a D stops it well. That said, I imagine Baltimore using this til the well runs dry, if it does.
Yet another week one with curiously low usage for Henry but we all know what he can do. Lamar is always ready to run if the defense is not set well to stop him.
Who do you move to the outside to cover Likely that won't leave you shorthanded to stop either of those runners up the middle?
I just don't know that most defenses have big enough and fast enough players to be everywhere they need to be against the Ravens.
Ramble- why go to Andrews if Likely can't be matched up well?
Yet another week one with curiously low usage for Henry but we all know what he can do. Lamar is always ready to run if the defense is not set well to stop him.
Who do you move to the outside to cover Likely that won't leave you shorthanded to stop either of those runners up the middle?
I just don't know that most defenses have big enough and fast enough players to be everywhere they need to be against the Ravens.
Ramble- why go to Andrews if Likely can't be matched up well?
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
I voted no. I wouldn’t do that trade today.
Ask me next week I may have a different answer lol
Ask me next week I may have a different answer lol
Willie Neslon
Footballguy
This thread is reminiscent of the "Deion Sanders - Next" thread after Colorado's game 1 win last season. Take a breath everybody.
What struck me as I was watching the game was how involved Likely was in every aspect of the game. He was on the field a lot more than Andrews. That could be due to easing back in after missing pre-season but it didn't seem that way to me.
Andrews has always been a lower snap count guy and utilized as a receiver more than blocker. He is was their receiving option. It didn't look to be the case last night as Likely dominated in all facets including snaps. I don't see that changing which is why I don't think this was a fluke game. I am not saying he is putting up 100+ and a TD every game but I have him as a must start every week guy moving forward.
Andrews has always been a lower snap count guy and utilized as a receiver more than blocker. He is was their receiving option. It didn't look to be the case last night as Likely dominated in all facets including snaps. I don't see that changing which is why I don't think this was a fluke game. I am not saying he is putting up 100+ and a TD every game but I have him as a must start every week guy moving forward.
I see lots of good discussion in this thread.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I would prefer to avoid the entire situation.
zamboni
Footballguy
The truth IMO is probably somewhere in the middle - Likely (likely) won't go off each week at the expense of Andrews, while Andrews, when 100% healthy, probably won't make Likely backup fodder again going forward.
Context/situation is important though, as even going back to last year with the addition of Flowers, this is not the same passing offense that previously went almost entirely through Andrews. You have a very good WR now with Flowers and a blossoming TE counterpart in Likely. Just more mouths to feed and Lamar doesn't need to lock into Andrews any more (nor should he). Just have to get used to more volatility with Andrews than in the past.
Reminds me a bit of Kittle several years ago when he was the only viable passing option in town, until Deebo and Aiyuk entered the fray. The talent may still be there for Andrews, but the situation has changed.
Context/situation is important though, as even going back to last year with the addition of Flowers, this is not the same passing offense that previously went almost entirely through Andrews. You have a very good WR now with Flowers and a blossoming TE counterpart in Likely. Just more mouths to feed and Lamar doesn't need to lock into Andrews any more (nor should he). Just have to get used to more volatility with Andrews than in the past.
Reminds me a bit of Kittle several years ago when he was the only viable passing option in town, until Deebo and Aiyuk entered the fray. The talent may still be there for Andrews, but the situation has changed.
creepythinman
Footballguy
Route participation: Andrews (72%), Likely (69%)
Target share: Andrews (5%), Likely (5%)
Week 1s tend to be weird for TEs. Andrews was doubled frequently. KC was giving Likely that 7 yard out every time. Baltimore should be leading rather than trailing most of the season.
Counterpoint: Andrews looked slow. Zay Flowers is a gadget guy. No one else to really throw to.
Judgement: Don't be spending 90% FAAB on Likely. Andrews will get his.
Target share: Andrews (5%), Likely (5%)
Week 1s tend to be weird for TEs. Andrews was doubled frequently. KC was giving Likely that 7 yard out every time. Baltimore should be leading rather than trailing most of the season.
Counterpoint: Andrews looked slow. Zay Flowers is a gadget guy. No one else to really throw to.
Judgement: Don't be spending 90% FAAB on Likely. Andrews will get his.
Willie Neslon
Footballguy
It's one game where Likely scored a long TD on a busted play. People are really going to trade the guy they took in round 5-6 for a late round pick/waiver wire guy? After one game? Really? Could Likely outscore Andrews this season? Absolutely, but making that deal after one game is about as big an overreaction as you could have. It reminded me of the overreaction to Deion's Buffs coaching debut is all. It's more likely than not they get Andrews going in short order. And if it turns out that Likely is a complete stud and this post looks really dumb a few months from now I still stick by the assertion that making an overreaction trade like this is never a good idea.
I don't think that was a busted play. The Worthy TD catch was a busted play. Likely's TD was an athletic player making something happen. To me there is a big difference between those two plays with respect to how meaningful they were in the grand scheme of things. This was also not the first time Likely has made things happen with the ball in his hands after the catch.
While I don't think you should overreact to Andrews bad game at all, I do think that Likely is the real deal and will be a must start all year.
Willie Neslon
Footballguy
He very well night be but would you trade Mark Freaking Andrews for him after ONE game? Come on.
I would be trying to get Likely and keep Andrews. But if you made me choose which one will have more fantasy points this year (and I had to pick one)..........I would choose Likely. I think they will both be utilized all year and be big parts of the offense. I just think Likely is more dynamic and will be a must start all year (even with Andrews "healthy").
Ben & Jerry's
Footballguy
It would take Andrews + to acquire Likely
Jimbo Slice
Footballguy
on my best ball team i grabbed lamar andrews and likely. it may be the peak moment of my life
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Remember Joe, Likely is not a good run blocking Tight End and he is not on the field as much when the Ravens are running Henry
-Ravens like most teams abandoned the run when they fell behind, at that point it was the Likely show.
I doubt we see a lot of games like we saw from the Ravens last night, just my opinion
-That said, I agree with you that when Andrews went down from the turf, it made him look ancient in that moment.
I still think when the Ravens win most weeks that the game flow will not roll thru Likely, I doubt Henry is held under 50 yds rushing most weeks
Zay Flowers only had 37 yds receiving last night, he's likely to see a lot more in future games.
All that to say Likely had 100+/TD last night, he could have had 3 TDs and a lot more yards, Jackson missed him wide open going down the middle of the field towards the end zone, Jackson led him right into the DB who was chasing hi and caught up
You are always on the pulse day after the games, you ask the question that everyone is thinking.
But it's one game JB and that's always been a theme around here, don't sell off your team after just Week 1
That said Likely deserves some targets worked in within the normal game plan.
On weeks where Henry is more productive, think you will see less of Likely in the stat box.
It's one game where Likely scored a long TD on a busted play. People are really going to trade the guy they took in round 5-6 for a late round pick/waiver wire guy? After one game? Really? Could Likely outscore Andrews this season? Absolutely, but making that deal after one game is about as big an overreaction as you could have. It reminded me of the overreaction to Deion's Buffs coaching debut is all. It's more likely than not they get Andrews going in short order. And if it turns out that Likely is a complete stud and this post looks really dumb a few months from now I still stick by the assertion that making an overreaction trade like this is never a good idea.
I've seen arguments here on both sides here. Interestingly, with a larger audience on Twitter, there are more folks on the Andrews side. https://x.com/Football_Guys/status/1832040220524777801
But I think it's a good thread. There might be posts in the thread that agree or disagree with a position. But the thread overall I think is great and a good example of the value of the forum.
Willie Neslon
Footballguy
For sure. I didn't mean to offend. I was just pointing out it was one game.It's one game where Likely scored a long TD on a busted play. People are really going to trade the guy they took in round 5-6 for a late round pick/waiver wire guy? After one game? Really? Could Likely outscore Andrews this season? Absolutely, but making that deal after one game is about as big an overreaction as you could have. It reminded me of the overreaction to Deion's Buffs coaching debut is all. It's more likely than not they get Andrews going in short order. And if it turns out that Likely is a complete stud and this post looks really dumb a few months from now I still stick by the assertion that making an overreaction trade like this is never a good idea.
I've seen arguments here on both sides here. Interestingly, with a larger audience on Twitter, there are more folks on the Andrews side. https://x.com/Football_Guys/status/1832040220524777801
But I think it's a good thread. There might be posts in the thread that agree or disagree with a position. But the thread overall I think is great and a good example of the value of the forum.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Lively was more involved because KC double and triple teamed Andrews (and in zone always had multiple defenders in his area). They didn't care about Lively . . . and it showed. However, Andrews played 59 snaps to 53 for Lively. Andrews ran 38 routes to 35 for Lively.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I'm reminded of 3 specific buy low trades from fantasy seasons past.
- After Barry Sanders had 25 carries for 53 yards after Week 2 in 1997, I traded a couple of flavors of the week for him. Sanders went on to have 100+ rushing yards in every game the rest of the season and went for 2K rushing yards.
- In 2000, Tony Gonzalez did very little out of the gate (like 90 yards in first 3 games). I can't even remember who I traded to get him, but he wound up as the TE1 by a mile and a half.
- After 3 really slow weeks (100 yards total) to start the 2002 season, I again traded some random pieces for Terrell Owens, who ended up as the WR2 on the season.
Andrews may not be a HOF talent, but many times you can acquire guys for a discount and cash in on their best weeks. That's the benefit of having a track record for proven commodities. They generally come in at a similar year-end scoring total (even if they start out slowly).
- After Barry Sanders had 25 carries for 53 yards after Week 2 in 1997, I traded a couple of flavors of the week for him. Sanders went on to have 100+ rushing yards in every game the rest of the season and went for 2K rushing yards.
- In 2000, Tony Gonzalez did very little out of the gate (like 90 yards in first 3 games). I can't even remember who I traded to get him, but he wound up as the TE1 by a mile and a half.
- After 3 really slow weeks (100 yards total) to start the 2002 season, I again traded some random pieces for Terrell Owens, who ended up as the WR2 on the season.
Andrews may not be a HOF talent, but many times you can acquire guys for a discount and cash in on their best weeks. That's the benefit of having a track record for proven commodities. They generally come in at a similar year-end scoring total (even if they start out slowly).
For sure. I didn't mean to offend. I was just pointing out it was one game.It's one game where Likely scored a long TD on a busted play. People are really going to trade the guy they took in round 5-6 for a late round pick/waiver wire guy? After one game? Really? Could Likely outscore Andrews this season? Absolutely, but making that deal after one game is about as big an overreaction as you could have. It reminded me of the overreaction to Deion's Buffs coaching debut is all. It's more likely than not they get Andrews going in short order. And if it turns out that Likely is a complete stud and this post looks really dumb a few months from now I still stick by the assertion that making an overreaction trade like this is never a good idea.
I've seen arguments here on both sides here. Interestingly, with a larger audience on Twitter, there are more folks on the Andrews side. https://x.com/Football_Guys/status/1832040220524777801
But I think it's a good thread. There might be posts in the thread that agree or disagree with a position. But the thread overall I think is great and a good example of the value of the forum.
No offense at all. And absolutely, just one game.
That was my opening:
For everyone worried about Andrews, Travis Kelce was TERRIBLE in Week 1 last year!
Oh wait...
Oh wait...
Golden Gopher
Footballguy
There are always overreactions after Week 1. That said, I'm at least concerned. Moreso about the fact that I don't have Likely on any teams than the fact that I have Andrews as my TE1 on a couple. Defenses will adjust, and Andrews will get his (I hope). But, man, Likely looked REALLY good. That combination of size, speed, and general athleticism is hard to cover, and he's definitely got my attention.
I do love these discussions as they're the classic "know when to hold 'em, know when to fold em'" talk that is much of Fantasy Football.
The other super interesting part of this is fantasy football is a marketplace.
It's not just our value. It's the value others put on players. Patience is a virtue. But it's not always allowed when others are impatient.
And things change fast. It wasn't long ago that Russell Wilson was an established top QB.
It's not just our value. It's the value others put on players. Patience is a virtue. But it's not always allowed when others are impatient.
And things change fast. It wasn't long ago that Russell Wilson was an established top QB.
Grid71
Footballguy
Didn't think it would happen this soon, but the shark has been jumped. Rest of season, I want Likely > Andrews.
Likely has looked better than good when given the opportunity. Some of his catches make the difficult look easy. Was thinking it would be closer to 50/50 this year, but now it's not even close.
Exposure in BB, 13% Likely; 6% Andrews. I'm lower than the field on Andrews but wish it was lower than this.
Likely has looked better than good when given the opportunity. Some of his catches make the difficult look easy. Was thinking it would be closer to 50/50 this year, but now it's not even close.
Exposure in BB, 13% Likely; 6% Andrews. I'm lower than the field on Andrews but wish it was lower than this.
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