Baltimore Tight Ends - Would you trade Andrews for Likely? (2 Viewers)

[zamboni]

There are always overreactions after Week 1. That said, I'm at least concerned. Moreso about the fact that I don't have Likely on any teams than the fact that I have Andrews as my TE1 on a couple. Defenses will adjust, and Andrews will get his (I hope). But, man, Likely looked REALLY good. That combination of size, speed, and general athleticism is hard to cover, and he's definitely got my attention.

This goes to my point earlier that the passing situation may have changed from recent years and it may not be enough to say “but it’s Mark Andrews.” Defenses have assuredly schemed against him in the past, yet he was able to still produce at a high level as Lamar would force feed him in the absence of other viable options. Lamar doesn’t need to do that any more. Certainly possible we see the Andrews of old again soon, but the ecosystem just looks a bit different.

 

[Golden Gopher]

I think a lot of us (not all, but a lot) would agree that it might be a bit premature to swap the two BAL TE's after one Week, despite how great Likely looked. What I think is interesting is to look at the draft boards, particularly in my FFPC (TE-friendly scoring) drafts, and the tiers of TE's that were consistently drafted before Likely. How far up this list do you have to go before you would say "Yeah, I'm having buyer's remorse in taking xxx xxx instead of him." Here's a sample of six FFPC drafts (all 1.5PPR scoring for TE's) that I did in the past two weeks....

DRAFT 1 2 3 4 5 6 ADP
Kelce 15 16 13 14 16 16 15.0
LaPorta 18 18 12 18 15 13 15.7
McBride 16 19 20 13 17 17 17.0
Kincaid 26 28 21 21 19 19 22.3
Andrews 34 25 23 22 23 24 25.2
Engram 44 37 25 43 45 36 38.3
Pitts 43 44 34 41 42 31 39.2
Kittle 48 38 27 49 44 39 40.8
Ferguson 59 53 57 50 49 46 52.3
Njoku 69 63 70 64 69 52 64.5
Bowers 70 65 65 63 68 59 65.0
Goedert 100 95 106 77 96 95 94.8
Freiermuth 132 104 110 115 108 109 113.0
Schultz 122 109 114 113 111 110 113.2
Hockenson 133 124 121 105 107 101 115.2
Conklin 143 127 152 145 123 136 137.7
Musgrave 137 142 136 137 136 141 138.2
Kmet 159 138 138 125 147 126 138.8
Likely 126 139 143 155 131 142 139.3
Otton 173 159 163 157 176 147 162.5
Sinnott 168 165 176 154 151 169 163.8

PICKS MADE AFTER LIKELY

So, the magic question, at least in my mind, is how far up this list do you have to go before you have "buyer's remorse," or at least are second-guessing yourself for not taking Likely. Granted, if you're taking somebody like Hockenson/Conklin/Musgrave/Kmet, you're probably taking them as your TE2. But, I still think it's an interesting question. Breaking it down by tiers, in terms of ADP....

LaPorta/Kelce/McBride - Not swapping these guys for him, obviously.

Kincaid/Andrews - Probably not, but after last night, many would consider Andrews.

Kittle/Engram/Pitts - I'm not dropping Kittle or Engram for him. Pitts I'd think twice, but still probably no. I still want to see what Pitts can do with a true QB.

Ferguson/Njoku/Bowers - Now I'm intrigued. I'm still probably holding Ferguson and Njoku, but I think I'd have to think long and hard about Likely over the rookie.

Goedert/Freiermuth/Schultz/Hockenson - Everyone in this tier was drafted consistently ahead of Likely as well. 23 out of 24 picks in the six drafts I looked at. I don't have a lot of "shares" in these guys, personally, and where I do, they're my 2nd (or in some cases, 3rd) TE. That said, I think I'd rather have Likely, for sure, over any of them.

Conklin/Musgrave/Kmet - The tier that pretty much surrounds Likely. Conklin and Kmet taken before him in 4/6, and Musgrave in half. And, to be clear, I actually like the potential of all three of these guys this year. That said, if I had to bet on whether or not any of the three will have a game this year as impressive as Likely did last night, I'm going to say no. No-brainer, in my opinion.

 

[Golden Gopher]

Sorry... I tried to post that "chart" in a nice color-coded format by tier, but it didn't work out.

Side note... The other thing that I found interesting was how consistently some of these TE's were drafted in the same range.

Kelce... Between 13-16 in all six drafts.
Schultz... Between 109 and 114 in five of six drafts.
Andrews.... 22 to 25 in five of six drafts.

Seems like a lot of guys were in a tight range in every draft but one outlier. And, a few others (Hockenson, Goedert) were a bit more all over the place.

 

[ZADO]

week 1

relax

 

[BLOCKED_PUNT]

I do love these discussions as they're the classic "know when to hold 'em, know when to fold em'" talk that is much of Fantasy Football.

ITT Joe does his best Kenny Rogers impression.

 

[BLOCKED_PUNT]

I do have a question though. Does anyone know the snap count? Did Likely outsnap Andrews? Were they both on the field at the same time and Andrews got used as the decoy?

I guess the more conservative take is to not overreact after a week. He was in a car crash less than a month ago and I still think it's possible that that had an affect on his play.

There is the possibility that this is a "changing of the guard" but its also possible that this was just an off week or even this was a "chiefs don't expect this!"

 

[nyg350]

I do have a question though. Does anyone know the snap count? Did Likely outsnap Andrews? Were they both on the field at the same time and Andrews got used as the decoy?

I guess the more conservative take is to not overreact after a week. He was in a car crash less than a month ago and I still think it's possible that that had an affect on his play.

There is the possibility that this is a "changing of the guard" but its also possible that this was just an off week or even this was a "chiefs don't expect this!"

Per PFF, Andrews played 59 snaps compared to Likely’s 53, and he ran a route on 64% of those snaps. Likely’s percentage of snaps with a route run was 66%. The Ravens also ran a ton of 12 personnel, so both Andrews and Likely were on the field together often. That’s a change from last season, when the team ran the fifth-fewest snaps in 12 personnel.

Above From the following article https://www.si.com/fantasy/fantasy-...-andrews-ravens-fantasy-football-01j73nf11gv7

 

[habsfan]

week 1

relax

You absolutely can overreact to what you're seeing on the field. You can also ignore what you're seeing on the field.

 

[ZADO]

week 1

relax

You absolutely can overreact to what you're seeing on the field. You can also ignore what you're seeing on the field.

talk to me in a couple of weeks

 

[Gatorade]

I think a lot of us (not all, but a lot) would agree that it might be a bit premature to swap the two BAL TE's after one Week, despite how great Likely looked. What I think is interesting is to look at the draft boards, particularly in my FFPC (TE-friendly scoring) drafts, and the tiers of TE's that were consistently drafted before Likely. How far up this list do you have to go before you would say "Yeah, I'm having buyer's remorse in taking xxx xxx instead of him." Here's a sample of six FFPC drafts (all 1.5PPR scoring for TE's) that I did in the past two weeks....

DRAFT 1 2 3 4 5 6 ADP
Kelce 15 16 13 14 16 16 15.0
LaPorta 18 18 12 18 15 13 15.7
McBride 16 19 20 13 17 17 17.0
Kincaid 26 28 21 21 19 19 22.3
Andrews 34 25 23 22 23 24 25.2
Engram 44 37 25 43 45 36 38.3
Pitts 43 44 34 41 42 31 39.2
Kittle 48 38 27 49 44 39 40.8
Ferguson 59 53 57 50 49 46 52.3
Njoku 69 63 70 64 69 52 64.5
Bowers 70 65 65 63 68 59 65.0
Goedert 100 95 106 77 96 95 94.8
Freiermuth 132 104 110 115 108 109 113.0
Schultz 122 109 114 113 111 110 113.2
Hockenson 133 124 121 105 107 101 115.2
Conklin 143 127 152 145 123 136 137.7
Musgrave 137 142 136 137 136 141 138.2
Kmet 159 138 138 125 147 126 138.8
Likely 126 139 143 155 131 142 139.3
Otton 173 159 163 157 176 147 162.5
Sinnott 168 165 176 154 151 169 163.8

PICKS MADE AFTER LIKELY

So, the magic question, at least in my mind, is how far up this list do you have to go before you have "buyer's remorse," or at least are second-guessing yourself for not taking Likely. Granted, if you're taking somebody like Hockenson/Conklin/Musgrave/Kmet, you're probably taking them as your TE2. But, I still think it's an interesting question. Breaking it down by tiers, in terms of ADP....

LaPorta/Kelce/McBride - Not swapping these guys for him, obviously.

Kincaid/Andrews - Probably not, but after last night, many would consider Andrews.

Kittle/Engram/Pitts - I'm not dropping Kittle or Engram for him. Pitts I'd think twice, but still probably no. I still want to see what Pitts can do with a true QB.

Ferguson/Njoku/Bowers - Now I'm intrigued. I'm still probably holding Ferguson and Njoku, but I think I'd have to think long and hard about Likely over the rookie.

Goedert/Freiermuth/Schultz/Hockenson - Everyone in this tier was drafted consistently ahead of Likely as well. 23 out of 24 picks in the six drafts I looked at. I don't have a lot of "shares" in these guys, personally, and where I do, they're my 2nd (or in some cases, 3rd) TE. That said, I think I'd rather have Likely, for sure, over any of them.

Conklin/Musgrave/Kmet - The tier that pretty much surrounds Likely. Conklin and Kmet taken before him in 4/6, and Musgrave in half. And, to be clear, I actually like the potential of all three of these guys this year. That said, if I had to bet on whether or not any of the three will have a game this year as impressive as Likely did last night, I'm going to say no. No-brainer, in my opinion.

Right now I think I would slot Lively after Ferguson. Everyone after that to me would either be a backup or a BB shot in the dark.

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

Got an offer for giving Andrews and getting back Kupp

 

[JohnnyU]

Got an offer for giving Andrews and getting back Kupp

Seems like a no brainer at the moment. I suppose things could change that, but I wouldn't bet on it.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Picked Likely up after Week 1 in leagues where I had Ferguson and Njoku. In the former, I dropped him after it was clear Fergie was fully back. In the other, I've still been starting him while Njoku has remained out. But if this stretches one more week I'm going to explore other options.

I honestly don't know what's going on with the Baltimore passing game. Neither the WRs nor either TE are doing anything. This can't continue ... can it?

 

[wlwiles]

Picked Likely up after Week 1 in leagues where I had Ferguson and Njoku. In the former, I dropped him after it was clear Fergie was fully back. In the other, I've still been starting him while Njoku has remained out. But if this stretches one more week I'm going to explore other options.

I honestly don't know what's going on with the Baltimore passing game. Neither the WRs nor either TE are doing anything. This can't continue ... can it?

Looks like the Baltimore offense is now one where you want Lamar or Henry, but none of the pass catchers. They're going to run a ton, Lamar is going to spread the ball around when he does throw it. Likely may pop, Andrews will get a few targets here and there, Flowers may break a long one, Justice Hill is going to get a handful of touches, even Agholor and Bateman are going to get some looks and nobody is going to be trustworthy on a given week. For an NFL offense it'll be great but for fantasy it'll be horrible.

 

[BigTex]

If you had Mark Andrews on your roster, would you trade Andrews for Isaiah Likely?

I traded him for a 1st two weeks ago, last year showed me that he’s not the same and is declining.

I have Kelce and I’m trying to get Wiley..

Tex

 

[JohnnyU]

If you had Mark Andrews on your roster, would you trade Andrews for Isaiah Likely?

I traded him for a 1st two weeks ago, last year showed me that he’s not the same and is declining.

I have Kelce and I’m trying to get Wiley..

Ted

What makes you think Wiley is Kelce’s heir apparent? They seem to love Gray and he’s only 25.

 

[BigTex]

If you had Mark Andrews on your roster, would you trade Andrews for Isaiah Likely?

I traded him for a 1st two weeks ago, last year showed me that he’s not the same and is declining.

I have Kelce and I’m trying to get Wiley..

Ted

What makes you think Wiley is Kelce’s heir apparent? They seem to love Gray and he’s only 25.

Yes Sir, he seems to be developing a relationship with Mahomes plus he trusts him. Kelce wants to retire and signs seem to be pointing him in the right direction.

Jared Wiley, Kansas City Chiefs
“Jared Wiley might turn out to be the biggest surprise of the 2024 NFL draft class for Kansas City. He’s already getting a lot of play with the starters, getting looks in the red zone in the Jody Fortson role. If he’s good enough when the pads come on, he could quickly supplant Noah Gray, who is slated to be a free agent in 2025.” 7:49 pm June 19, 2024

Jared Wiley, Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs rookie TE Jared Wiley is one to watch for, according to @mattderrick 5:22 pm July 16, 2024

Jared Wiley, Louis Rees-Zammit,MKansas City Chiefs
“During 7-on-7, Patrick Mahomes completed two passes apiece to Louis Rees-Zammit and Jared Wiley, including a would-be red-zone touchdown.” 11:39 am July 18, 2024

Jared Wiley, Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes on Jared Wiley: “I anticipate he comes in and learns and gets better and better. The physicality and the size and speed, you see that. Now, we get to test the mental ability and that tight end position is hard in the NFL, especially in coach Reid’s offense. You have to be able to block and make all the blocking assignments but also do all the passing stuff, too. He’s doing a great job with that so far and we’re going to keep pushing him and see what we can do. There’s going to be a lot of competition in that room, obviously with Travis Kelce and Noah Gray but even the other guys that we have. I’m excited for him to get in and get the work and come back and hopefully be a big impact on our team.” 11:40 am July 18, 2024

Jared Wiley, Kansas City Chiefs

“Jared Wiley is the guy to watch. Absolutely. For the both short term and long term. This is the first really tight end that the Chiefs have had, I think really arguably the young first young tight end the Chiefs have had in the Travis Kelce era, that can compliment him to get him off the field. So that, you know, we remember Travis Kelce at his prime playing like 95% of the snaps. At 34, going into age 35 season, he needs a lighter workload. Now, he doesn’t want a lighter workload. He’ll tell you that. But the Chiefs would certainly like to back off of him a little bit.” 11:41 am July 18, 2024

Jared Wiley, Patrick Mahomes, Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs
“A memorable moment from the period took place when quarterback Patrick Mahomes completed a “jump pass” to tight end Jared Wiley over the middle of the field. Second-year wide receiver Rashee Rice, who had a busy day with several catches, hauled in a touchdown grab during the period.” 8:49 am July 29, 2024

Jared Wiley, Kansas City Chiefs
“Jared Wiley with a catch deep down the sideline during 11-on-11. Showed off his speed there.” 11:44 pm August 1, 2024

Jared Wiley, Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs
“Mahomes rebounded his next turn on the field with 4 straight TDs — back-to-back scores to TE Jared Wiley and then back-to-back scores to WR Rashee Rice.” 12:10 am August 15, 2024

Jared Wiley, Kansas City Chiefs
“Tight ends (3): Travis Kelce, Noah Gray, Jared Wiley…Gray and Wiley can be interchangeable within the offense as the second tight end in some formations. Wiley’s development in camp and the preseason didn’t accelerate as much as the Chiefs wanted, but he could be a rotational contributor on offense midway through the season.” 9:59 pm August 26, 2024

Tex

 

[sheerterror]

If you had Mark Andrews on your roster, would you trade Andrews for Isaiah Likely?

I traded him for a 1st two weeks ago, last year showed me that he’s not the same and is declining.

I have Kelce and I’m trying to get Wiley..

Ted

What makes you think Wiley is Kelce’s heir apparent? They seem to love Gray and he’s only 25.

Yes Sir, he seems to be developing a relationship with Mahomes plus he trusts him. Kelce wants to retire and signs seem to be pointing him in the right direction.

Jared Wiley, Kansas City Chiefs
“Jared Wiley might turn out to be the biggest surprise of the 2024 NFL draft class for Kansas City. He’s already getting a lot of play with the starters, getting looks in the red zone in the Jody Fortson role. If he’s good enough when the pads come on, he could quickly supplant Noah Gray, who is slated to be a free agent in 2025.” 7:49 pm June 19, 2024

Jared Wiley, Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs rookie TE Jared Wiley is one to watch for, according to @mattderrick 5:22 pm July 16, 2024

Jared Wiley, Louis Rees-Zammit,MKansas City Chiefs
“During 7-on-7, Patrick Mahomes completed two passes apiece to Louis Rees-Zammit and Jared Wiley, including a would-be red-zone touchdown.” 11:39 am July 18, 2024

Jared Wiley, Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes on Jared Wiley: “I anticipate he comes in and learns and gets better and better. The physicality and the size and speed, you see that. Now, we get to test the mental ability and that tight end position is hard in the NFL, especially in coach Reid’s offense. You have to be able to block and make all the blocking assignments but also do all the passing stuff, too. He’s doing a great job with that so far and we’re going to keep pushing him and see what we can do. There’s going to be a lot of competition in that room, obviously with Travis Kelce and Noah Gray but even the other guys that we have. I’m excited for him to get in and get the work and come back and hopefully be a big impact on our team.” 11:40 am July 18, 2024

Jared Wiley, Kansas City Chiefs

“Jared Wiley is the guy to watch. Absolutely. For the both short term and long term. This is the first really tight end that the Chiefs have had, I think really arguably the young first young tight end the Chiefs have had in the Travis Kelce era, that can compliment him to get him off the field. So that, you know, we remember Travis Kelce at his prime playing like 95% of the snaps. At 34, going into age 35 season, he needs a lighter workload. Now, he doesn’t want a lighter workload. He’ll tell you that. But the Chiefs would certainly like to back off of him a little bit.” 11:41 am July 18, 2024

Jared Wiley, Patrick Mahomes, Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs
“A memorable moment from the period took place when quarterback Patrick Mahomes completed a “jump pass” to tight end Jared Wiley over the middle of the field. Second-year wide receiver Rashee Rice, who had a busy day with several catches, hauled in a touchdown grab during the period.” 8:49 am July 29, 2024

Jared Wiley, Kansas City Chiefs
“Jared Wiley with a catch deep down the sideline during 11-on-11. Showed off his speed there.” 11:44 pm August 1, 2024

Jared Wiley, Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs
“Mahomes rebounded his next turn on the field with 4 straight TDs — back-to-back scores to TE Jared Wiley and then back-to-back scores to WR Rashee Rice.” 12:10 am August 15, 2024

Jared Wiley, Kansas City Chiefs
“Tight ends (3): Travis Kelce, Noah Gray, Jared Wiley…Gray and Wiley can be interchangeable within the offense as the second tight end in some formations. Wiley’s development in camp and the preseason didn’t accelerate as much as the Chiefs wanted, but he could be a rotational contributor on offense midway through the season.” 9:59 pm August 26, 2024

Tex

Realize this is a Bal TE thread but:

This [KC] situation feels somewhat like Dallas had with Schultz and Ferguson a few seasons ago with the younger Ferguson obviously winning out.

Having said that, I'm taking Mahomes' training camp praise with a huge grain of salt. He talked up Generic Price enough last offseason that I sold Pacheco wayyyy too low, and drafted that bum 2x. I think what we are seeing on the field matters more than any TC quotes at this point especially 1/4 of the way through the season. IDK snap counts but this guy has all of 1 target this season. It's obvious at this moment in time Gray is further along the development paradigm to be the heir to Kelce's throne, and going after Wiley is nothing more than a complete dart throw. Unless something drastically changes ie Gray ends up sucking, why would you expect for Wiley to be anything more than what Gray currently is, this time next season?

 

[cockroach]

If you had Mark Andrews on your roster, would you trade Andrews for Isaiah Likely?

I traded him for a 1st two weeks ago, last year showed me that he’s not the same and is declining.

I have Kelce and I’m trying to get Wiley..

Ted

What makes you think Wiley is Kelce’s heir apparent? They seem to love Gray and he’s only 25.

They extended him, so they definitely like him, but he's had a handful of games with Kelce injured and has done basically nothing. I'd def take a shot on Wiley over Gray.

 

[BigTex]

If you had Mark Andrews on your roster, would you trade Andrews for Isaiah Likely?

I traded him for a 1st two weeks ago, last year showed me that he’s not the same and is declining.

I have Kelce and I’m trying to get Wiley..

Ted

What makes you think Wiley is Kelce’s heir apparent? They seem to love Gray and he’s only 25.

Yes Sir, he seems to be developing a relationship with Mahomes plus he trusts him. Kelce wants to retire and signs seem to be pointing him in the right direction.

Jared Wiley, Kansas City Chiefs
“Jared Wiley might turn out to be the biggest surprise of the 2024 NFL draft class for Kansas City. He’s already getting a lot of play with the starters, getting looks in the red zone in the Jody Fortson role. If he’s good enough when the pads come on, he could quickly supplant Noah Gray, who is slated to be a free agent in 2025.” 7:49 pm June 19, 2024

Jared Wiley, Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs rookie TE Jared Wiley is one to watch for, according to @mattderrick 5:22 pm July 16, 2024

Jared Wiley, Louis Rees-Zammit,MKansas City Chiefs
“During 7-on-7, Patrick Mahomes completed two passes apiece to Louis Rees-Zammit and Jared Wiley, including a would-be red-zone touchdown.” 11:39 am July 18, 2024

Jared Wiley, Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes on Jared Wiley: “I anticipate he comes in and learns and gets better and better. The physicality and the size and speed, you see that. Now, we get to test the mental ability and that tight end position is hard in the NFL, especially in coach Reid’s offense. You have to be able to block and make all the blocking assignments but also do all the passing stuff, too. He’s doing a great job with that so far and we’re going to keep pushing him and see what we can do. There’s going to be a lot of competition in that room, obviously with Travis Kelce and Noah Gray but even the other guys that we have. I’m excited for him to get in and get the work and come back and hopefully be a big impact on our team.” 11:40 am July 18, 2024

Jared Wiley, Kansas City Chiefs

“Jared Wiley is the guy to watch. Absolutely. For the both short term and long term. This is the first really tight end that the Chiefs have had, I think really arguably the young first young tight end the Chiefs have had in the Travis Kelce era, that can compliment him to get him off the field. So that, you know, we remember Travis Kelce at his prime playing like 95% of the snaps. At 34, going into age 35 season, he needs a lighter workload. Now, he doesn’t want a lighter workload. He’ll tell you that. But the Chiefs would certainly like to back off of him a little bit.” 11:41 am July 18, 2024

Jared Wiley, Patrick Mahomes, Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs
“A memorable moment from the period took place when quarterback Patrick Mahomes completed a “jump pass” to tight end Jared Wiley over the middle of the field. Second-year wide receiver Rashee Rice, who had a busy day with several catches, hauled in a touchdown grab during the period.” 8:49 am July 29, 2024

Jared Wiley, Kansas City Chiefs
“Jared Wiley with a catch deep down the sideline during 11-on-11. Showed off his speed there.” 11:44 pm August 1, 2024

Jared Wiley, Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs
“Mahomes rebounded his next turn on the field with 4 straight TDs — back-to-back scores to TE Jared Wiley and then back-to-back scores to WR Rashee Rice.” 12:10 am August 15, 2024

Jared Wiley, Kansas City Chiefs
“Tight ends (3): Travis Kelce, Noah Gray, Jared Wiley…Gray and Wiley can be interchangeable within the offense as the second tight end in some formations. Wiley’s development in camp and the preseason didn’t accelerate as much as the Chiefs wanted, but he could be a rotational contributor on offense midway through the season.” 9:59 pm August 26, 2024

Tex

Realize this is a Bal TE thread but:

This [KC] situation feels somewhat like Dallas had with Schultz and Ferguson a few seasons ago with the younger Ferguson obviously winning out.

Having said that, I'm taking Mahomes' training camp praise with a huge grain of salt. He talked up Generic Price enough last offseason that I sold Pacheco wayyyy too low, and drafted that bum 2x. I think what we are seeing on the field matters more than any TC quotes at this point especially 1/4 of the way through the season. IDK snap counts but this guy has all of 1 target this season. It's obvious at this moment in time Gray is further along the development paradigm to be the heir to Kelce's throne, and going after Wiley is nothing more than a complete dart throw. Unless something drastically changes ie Gray ends up sucking, why would you expect for Wiley to be anything more than what Gray currently is, this time next season?

I’m going to take my chances and we’ll see.

Tex