Bargain Barn QB's (1 Viewer)

[Jeff Tefertiller]

the QBs I like this year on the cheap are Grossman, Favre, and Ben. All three drafted as QB2 or QB3 and could be good QB1 .... yes, even Grossman

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

with all the Denver talk in this thread just like to point out that none of these threads ever seem to mention Matt Schaub with Kubiak in town.team will be playing from behind often. one beast option (AJ) with a serviceable WR2 (McCardell). AGreen has shown to be an above average receiving RB in the past. Owen Daniels a nice redzone threat.i cant get to ADPs right now from work..where is Schaubs?

QB19, ahead of Losman, Pennington, Campbell, Green, Grossman, McNair, Leftwich, Garcia. Good thought, but I don't see any particular value there.

yeah id have to agree at an ADP of 19 for schaub..seems about right and not a lot of value there

 

[shadyridr]

One who is not on your list but should be at the top is Leftwich. Last year he was 11th in ppg and his ADP is QB27!! The year before he finished about the same. Yeah he may get hurt but when he's in there he's a decent option for VERY cheap.

I get Leftwich every year as my backup. Talk about overlooked.

How did that work out for you last year?

 

[Tau837]

One who is not on your list but should be at the top is Leftwich. Last year he was 11th in ppg and his ADP is QB27!! The year before he finished about the same. Yeah he may get hurt but when he's in there he's a decent option for VERY cheap.

I get Leftwich every year as my backup. Talk about overlooked.

How did that work out for you last year?

Why anyone would trumpet this claim is beyond me. Here are Leftwich's fantasy rankings for his career (FBG scoring): 17, 18, 21, 34.

 

[BGP]

I think Big Ben is a lock for top 10 QB numbers this year yet nobody is talking about him like that. I will be targeting Big Ben as my starting QB as I can probably get him as the last starting QB in my league.

He is injury-prone and you'll need to worry about getting a decent backup for him. Plus he threw the most INTs of any starting QB (last year), not something on the resume of many among the top 10 QBs in the 07 fantasy draft.

 

[shadyridr]

I think Big Ben is a lock for top 10 QB numbers this year yet nobody is talking about him like that. I will be targeting Big Ben as my starting QB as I can probably get him as the last starting QB in my league.

He is injury-prone and you'll need to worry about getting a decent backup for him. Plus he threw the most INTs of any starting QB (last year), not something on the resume of many among the top 10 QBs in the 07 fantasy draft.

You need to worry about getting a decent backup for any QB you get after the big 6 or so. And dont forget he often runs for about 2 TDs a year. So that could offset some INTs. Right now I have him projected at 3400 yds pass, 22 td, 18 int, 150 yds rush and 2 rush tds. That puts him at about QB #9, 1 pt behind Hasslebeck. And I think those #s I posted are conservative. Do you disagree with my projections?

 

[moleculo]

IMO, you need a good backup for any QB outside of Peyton.

 

[kevinray]

One who is not on your list but should be at the top is Leftwich. Last year he was 11th in ppg and his ADP is QB27!! The year before he finished about the same. Yeah he may get hurt but when he's in there he's a decent option for VERY cheap.

I get Leftwich every year as my backup. Talk about overlooked.

How did that work out for you last year?

Why anyone would trumpet this claim is beyond me. Here are Leftwich's fantasy rankings for his career (FBG scoring): 17, 18, 21, 34.

In my league last year Leftwich was #9 in PPG. He didn't play in many games but early in the season he was a solid QB. Remember that where these guys are drafted they out perform their ADP's in PPG, and you already have other QB's rostered beyond them. No one plays Leftwich when he's injured so season scoring totals aren't the best way to judge him. You also can’t assume a guys going to get hurt each year (ie: sexy rexy) and if Leftwich played a full year his final rank would be higher then those numbers.

 

[shadyridr]

One who is not on your list but should be at the top is Leftwich. Last year he was 11th in ppg and his ADP is QB27!! The year before he finished about the same. Yeah he may get hurt but when he's in there he's a decent option for VERY cheap.

I get Leftwich every year as my backup. Talk about overlooked.

How did that work out for you last year?

Why anyone would trumpet this claim is beyond me. Here are Leftwich's fantasy rankings for his career (FBG scoring): 17, 18, 21, 34.

In my league last year Leftwich was #9 in PPG. He didn't play in many games but early in the season he was a solid QB. Remember that where these guys are drafted they out perform their ADP's in PPG, and you already have other QB's rostered beyond them. No one plays Leftwich when he's injured so season scoring totals aren't the best way to judge him. You also can’t assume a guys going to get hurt each year (ie: sexy rexy) and if Leftwich played a full year his final rank would be higher then those numbers.

Then tell me whats so good about drafting a QB2 who is always hurt.

 

[kevinray]

One who is not on your list but should be at the top is Leftwich. Last year he was 11th in ppg and his ADP is QB27!! The year before he finished about the same. Yeah he may get hurt but when he's in there he's a decent option for VERY cheap.

I get Leftwich every year as my backup. Talk about overlooked.

How did that work out for you last year?

Why anyone would trumpet this claim is beyond me. Here are Leftwich's fantasy rankings for his career (FBG scoring): 17, 18, 21, 34.

In my league last year Leftwich was #9 in PPG. He didn't play in many games but early in the season he was a solid QB. Remember that where these guys are drafted they out perform their ADP's in PPG, and you already have other QB's rostered beyond them. No one plays Leftwich when he's injured so season scoring totals aren't the best way to judge him. You also can’t assume a guys going to get hurt each year (ie: sexy rexy) and if Leftwich played a full year his final rank would be higher then those numbers.

Then tell me whats so good about drafting a QB2 who is always hurt.

You can't predict injuries.... and in any situation where I'd have Leftwich I'd pair him with one of these other guys like Ben, Rex, Cambell. Leftwich may only give you 8-10 games but when he's out there the points he produces vastly outperform where you get him, and that creates value. Its QBBC because you wait and grab 2-3 of these guys and spend higher picks on the RBS and WRs before the drop-off to mediocrity. Having a few of these guys who outperform there ADP on PPG helps mitigate the injury risk or risk that some have bad years. Chances are you can hit with one or two and you wind up with great players to be your backup or starter for less.

 

[-OZ-]

One who is not on your list but should be at the top is Leftwich. Last year he was 11th in ppg and his ADP is QB27!! The year before he finished about the same. Yeah he may get hurt but when he's in there he's a decent option for VERY cheap.

I get Leftwich every year as my backup. Talk about overlooked.

How did that work out for you last year?

Why anyone would trumpet this claim is beyond me. Here are Leftwich's fantasy rankings for his career (FBG scoring): 17, 18, 21, 34.

In my league last year Leftwich was #9 in PPG. He didn't play in many games but early in the season he was a solid QB. Remember that where these guys are drafted they out perform their ADP's in PPG, and you already have other QB's rostered beyond them. No one plays Leftwich when he's injured so season scoring totals aren't the best way to judge him. You also can’t assume a guys going to get hurt each year (ie: sexy rexy) and if Leftwich played a full year his final rank would be higher then those numbers.

Then tell me whats so good about drafting a QB2 who is always hurt.

Because when he plays, you have a top 10 QB for a low cost.

 

[Colin Dowling]

Assuming Trent Green's ADP starts rising, I'll toss out a deep, deep sleeper that I think will pay dividends in big leagues and definitely in dynasties:

David Carr

As the board's biggest Carr basher over the last few years, I will now go find out why the Mississippi is flowing north, the Sun is headed east, and Satan is ice-skating around.

 

[BGP]

I think Big Ben is a lock for top 10 QB numbers this year yet nobody is talking about him like that. I will be targeting Big Ben as my starting QB as I can probably get him as the last starting QB in my league.

He is injury-prone and you'll need to worry about getting a decent backup for him. Plus he threw the most INTs of any starting QB (last year), not something on the resume of many among the top 10 QBs in the 07 fantasy draft.

You need to worry about getting a decent backup for any QB you get after the big 6 or so. And dont forget he often runs for about 2 TDs a year. So that could offset some INTs. Right now I have him projected at 3400 yds pass, 22 td, 18 int, 150 yds rush and 2 rush tds. That puts him at about QB #9, 1 pt behind Hasslebeck. And I think those #s I posted are conservative. Do you disagree with my projections?

He's got double risk.
Injury-prone Doctors have done studies (I've linked to them on this board before - go do a search) where players who suffer multiple concussions in a short amount of time are more likely to suffer future concussions than players who never have suffered any. Ben suffered two in the span of a few months 1. the motorcycle wreck. 2. In a game in October. Risk is high that he may never be the same player mentally, especially if he keeps getting his bell rung.
led the NFL in INTs This is never a good sign as a veteran. Say what you like, but throwing INTs is the fastest way to the bench. He has a new coach who isn't beholden to him - its not a mark against the new coach if Ben fails.

 

[BGP]

You can't predict injuries....

Interesting comment. As I just said, doctors have found that players who suffer multiple concussions in a short span of time and more likely to suffer future ones than players who never have. So, in a way, doctors are finding ways to predict injuries (g)

 

[Peyton Marino]

I think Big Ben is a lock for top 10 QB numbers this year yet nobody is talking about him like that. I will be targeting Big Ben as my starting QB as I can probably get him as the last starting QB in my league.

He is injury-prone and you'll need to worry about getting a decent backup for him. Plus he threw the most INTs of any starting QB (last year), not something on the resume of many among the top 10 QBs in the 07 fantasy draft.

You need to worry about getting a decent backup for any QB you get after the big 6 or so. And dont forget he often runs for about 2 TDs a year. So that could offset some INTs. Right now I have him projected at 3400 yds pass, 22 td, 18 int, 150 yds rush and 2 rush tds. That puts him at about QB #9, 1 pt behind Hasslebeck. And I think those #s I posted are conservative. Do you disagree with my projections?

He's got double risk.
Injury-prone Doctors have done studies (I've linked to them on this board before - go do a search) where players who suffer multiple concussions in a short amount of time are more likely to suffer future concussions than players who never have suffered any. Ben suffered two in the span of a few months 1. the motorcycle wreck. 2. In a game in October. Risk is high that he may never be the same player mentally, especially if he keeps getting his bell rung.
led the NFL in INTs This is never a good sign as a veteran. Say what you like, but throwing INTs is the fastest way to the bench. He has a new coach who isn't beholden to him - its not a mark against the new coach if Ben fails.

He only missed one game last year. And while he did throw a league high 23 interceptions, that was by far his highest total ever since he joined the league. The most he had previously thrown was 11 in his rookie season. While I think little Ben is an awful NFL QB and the stillers will likely win all their games solely because of their strong D and running game, the guy is a pretty decent FF QB. He is the new Aaron Brooks.

 

[kevinray]

You can't predict injuries....

Interesting comment. As I just said, doctors have found that players who suffer multiple concussions in a short span of time and more likely to suffer future ones than players who never have. So, in a way, doctors are finding ways to predict injuries (g)

Ok, Its a factor in evaluating similar players but its looked into far to deeply. People miss out on guys simply because they got hurt last year, or have a "history" of missing time, but the facts are that even while some guys are more prone to injury the amount of time missed each season is to just to hard to put a figure on. That said when I made the statement I was thinking more along the lines of bodily and not head related injuries which are more likely to repeat themselves. Still though lots of players get concussions and while they affect them terribly later in life the majority have normal football careers in spite of them and are not limited more then a few games.

 

[BGP]

You can't predict injuries....

Interesting comment. As I just said, doctors have found that players who suffer multiple concussions in a short span of time and more likely to suffer future ones than players who never have. So, in a way, doctors are finding ways to predict injuries (g)

Ok, Its a factor in evaluating similar players but its looked into far to deeply. People miss out on guys simply because they got hurt last year, or have a "history" of missing time, but the facts are that even while some guys are more prone to injury the amount of time missed each season is to just to hard to put a figure on.

Well be careful in how you read into what I'm saying. I'm not saying here that Ben should go undrafted. But he may be taken higher than he should.How many of the top players from last year had a history of missing time with injuries?

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/leaders2006.htm

The first player that jumps out is Edgerrin James. But look closely and you'll see the mistake a fantasy GM would have made with James is drafting him TOO HIGH coming off the injury, as he had his worst two years after the torn ACL. So sometimes people take injuries too lightly and get burned.

The next player was Jamal Lewis. But again, the GMs getting burned here would be the one picking him TOO HIGH after his injury because they discounted the injury.

But even then, these two players aren't really "injury-prone" -- they had one MAJOR injury.

Brian Westbrook is the first player we come to that would be called "injury-prone". I suppose if you dismissed the injury-prone label on this guy because "you cannot predict injuries" you would have finally been vindicated in finding value in 2006. Unfortunately, you suffered 3 years of being wrong before that, including 2005 when he missed your fantasy playoffs due to a season-ending foot injury.

Chad Pennington is another guy made of glass. I suppose one could have again dismissed the injury-prone label on him because "you cannot predict injuries" and you would have been rewarded with a mediocre starting QB on your fantasy team in 2006 - only after being wrong for 3 years.

But honestly the overwhelming majority of fantasy stars do not have the lengthy injury history Ben does.

 

[TinHat]

- Grossman & Roethlisberger - Manning, Gargia, & Green

I agree with Andy just as if it were a political thread in the FFA.

 

[kevinray]

You can't predict injuries....

Interesting comment. As I just said, doctors have found that players who suffer multiple concussions in a short span of time and more likely to suffer future ones than players who never have. So, in a way, doctors are finding ways to predict injuries (g)

Ok, Its a factor in evaluating similar players but its looked into far to deeply. People miss out on guys simply because they got hurt last year, or have a "history" of missing time, but the facts are that even while some guys are more prone to injury the amount of time missed each season is to just to hard to put a figure on.

Well be careful in how you read into what I'm saying. I'm not saying here that Ben should go undrafted. But he may be taken higher than he should.How many of the top players from last year had a history of missing time with injuries?

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/leaders2006.htm

The first player that jumps out is Edgerrin James. But look closely and you'll see the mistake a fantasy GM would have made with James is drafting him TOO HIGH coming off the injury, as he had his worst two years after the torn ACL. So sometimes people take injuries too lightly and get burned.

The next player was Jamal Lewis. But again, the GMs getting burned here would be the one picking him TOO HIGH after his injury because they discounted the injury.

But even then, these two players aren't really "injury-prone" -- they had one MAJOR injury.

Brian Westbrook is the first player we come to that would be called "injury-prone". I suppose if you dismissed the injury-prone label on this guy because "you cannot predict injuries" you would have finally been vindicated in finding value in 2006. Unfortunately, you suffered 3 years of being wrong before that, including 2005 when he missed your fantasy playoffs due to a season-ending foot injury.

Chad Pennington is another guy made of glass. I suppose one could have again dismissed the injury-prone label on him because "you cannot predict injuries" and you would have been rewarded with a mediocre starting QB on your fantasy team in 2006 - only after being wrong for 3 years.

But honestly the overwhelming majority of fantasy stars do not have the lengthy injury history Ben does.

I don't want to get to off topic or an argument because I agree with some of what your saying. Westbrook is an example I like because on a PPG basis he was a lot better then where he was drafted for a few years. People sometimes look to much into how a player preformed in season total points and ignore that for those injured games they weren't being started anyway. With a lot of these QB's your not really discounting injuries because "they can't be predicted" because of the fact you're getting them so late. If they didn't have concerns then they wouldn't fall but what you gain in drafting these types of players is that for the games they are healthy they not only out perform their draft spot but you have the chance to get them on a fully healthy season and really pay off big. It won't work every time and you can get burned, but if you plan ahead and get a couple of these types of players you spread out the risk and increase the chance of really adding value to your team

 

[BGP]

You can't predict injuries....

Interesting comment. As I just said, doctors have found that players who suffer multiple concussions in a short span of time and more likely to suffer future ones than players who never have. So, in a way, doctors are finding ways to predict injuries (g)

Ok, Its a factor in evaluating similar players but its looked into far to deeply. People miss out on guys simply because they got hurt last year, or have a "history" of missing time, but the facts are that even while some guys are more prone to injury the amount of time missed each season is to just to hard to put a figure on.

Well be careful in how you read into what I'm saying. I'm not saying here that Ben should go undrafted. But he may be taken higher than he should.How many of the top players from last year had a history of missing time with injuries?

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/leaders2006.htm

The first player that jumps out is Edgerrin James. But look closely and you'll see the mistake a fantasy GM would have made with James is drafting him TOO HIGH coming off the injury, as he had his worst two years after the torn ACL. So sometimes people take injuries too lightly and get burned.

The next player was Jamal Lewis. But again, the GMs getting burned here would be the one picking him TOO HIGH after his injury because they discounted the injury.

But even then, these two players aren't really "injury-prone" -- they had one MAJOR injury.

Brian Westbrook is the first player we come to that would be called "injury-prone". I suppose if you dismissed the injury-prone label on this guy because "you cannot predict injuries" you would have finally been vindicated in finding value in 2006. Unfortunately, you suffered 3 years of being wrong before that, including 2005 when he missed your fantasy playoffs due to a season-ending foot injury.

Chad Pennington is another guy made of glass. I suppose one could have again dismissed the injury-prone label on him because "you cannot predict injuries" and you would have been rewarded with a mediocre starting QB on your fantasy team in 2006 - only after being wrong for 3 years.

But honestly the overwhelming majority of fantasy stars do not have the lengthy injury history Ben does.

I don't want to get to off topic or an argument because I agree with some of what your saying. Westbrook is an example I like because on a PPG basis he was a lot better then where he was drafted for a few years. People sometimes look to much into how a player preformed in season total points and ignore that for those injured games they weren't being started anyway. With a lot of these QB's your not really discounting injuries because "they can't be predicted" because of the fact you're getting them so late. If they didn't have concerns then they wouldn't fall but what you gain in drafting these types of players is that for the games they are healthy they not only out perform their draft spot but you have the chance to get them on a fully healthy season and really pay off big. It won't work every time and you can get burned, but if you plan ahead and get a couple of these types of players you spread out the risk and increase the chance of really adding value to your team

I wouldn't debate that. I certainly am not saying they should go undrafted. But injuries need to be a factor and, overall, the fantasy gms who ignore a injury history and have built a team around people like Pennington and Westbrook get burned. Moving them down the draft board, drafting them later, that's what should happen.

 

[Tau837]

I think Big Ben is a lock for top 10 QB numbers this year yet nobody is talking about him like that. I will be targeting Big Ben as my starting QB as I can probably get him as the last starting QB in my league.

He is injury-prone and you'll need to worry about getting a decent backup for him. Plus he threw the most INTs of any starting QB (last year), not something on the resume of many among the top 10 QBs in the 07 fantasy draft.

You need to worry about getting a decent backup for any QB you get after the big 6 or so. And dont forget he often runs for about 2 TDs a year. So that could offset some INTs. Right now I have him projected at 3400 yds pass, 22 td, 18 int, 150 yds rush and 2 rush tds. That puts him at about QB #9, 1 pt behind Hasslebeck. And I think those #s I posted are conservative. Do you disagree with my projections?

He's got double risk.
Injury-prone Doctors have done studies (I've linked to them on this board before - go do a search) where players who suffer multiple concussions in a short amount of time are more likely to suffer future concussions than players who never have suffered any. Ben suffered two in the span of a few months 1. the motorcycle wreck. 2. In a game in October. Risk is high that he may never be the same player mentally, especially if he keeps getting his bell rung.
led the NFL in INTs This is never a good sign as a veteran. Say what you like, but throwing INTs is the fastest way to the bench. He has a new coach who isn't beholden to him - its not a mark against the new coach if Ben fails.

Was he a "veteran" last year? It was his third season.

 

[Tau837]

I think Big Ben is a lock for top 10 QB numbers this year yet nobody is talking about him like that. I will be targeting Big Ben as my starting QB as I can probably get him as the last starting QB in my league.

He is injury-prone and you'll need to worry about getting a decent backup for him. Plus he threw the most INTs of any starting QB (last year), not something on the resume of many among the top 10 QBs in the 07 fantasy draft.

You need to worry about getting a decent backup for any QB you get after the big 6 or so. And dont forget he often runs for about 2 TDs a year. So that could offset some INTs. Right now I have him projected at 3400 yds pass, 22 td, 18 int, 150 yds rush and 2 rush tds. That puts him at about QB #9, 1 pt behind Hasslebeck. And I think those #s I posted are conservative. Do you disagree with my projections?

He's got double risk.
Injury-prone Doctors have done studies (I've linked to them on this board before - go do a search) where players who suffer multiple concussions in a short amount of time are more likely to suffer future concussions than players who never have suffered any. Ben suffered two in the span of a few months 1. the motorcycle wreck. 2. In a game in October. Risk is high that he may never be the same player mentally, especially if he keeps getting his bell rung.
led the NFL in INTs This is never a good sign as a veteran. Say what you like, but throwing INTs is the fastest way to the bench. He has a new coach who isn't beholden to him - its not a mark against the new coach if Ben fails.

He only missed one game last year. And while he did throw a league high 23 interceptions, that was by far his highest total ever since he joined the league. The most he had previously thrown was 11 in his rookie season. While I think little Ben is an awful NFL QB and the stillers will likely win all their games solely because of their strong D and running game, the guy is a pretty decent FF QB. He is the new Aaron Brooks.

True, but he also attempted about 60% more passes than he ever had before. His first two season interception totals are deceptively low because he didn't even attempt 300 passes in either season.

 

[Peyton Marino]

He only missed one game last year. And while he did throw a league high 23 interceptions, that was by far his highest total ever since he joined the league. The most he had previously thrown was 11 in his rookie season.

While I think little Ben is an awful NFL QB and the stillers will likely win all their games solely because of their strong D and running game, the guy is a pretty decent FF QB. He is the new Aaron Brooks.

True, but he also attempted about 60% more passes than he ever had before. His first two season interception totals are deceptively low because he didn't even attempt 300 passes in either season.

This is also true. However, that being said, his first two seasons he threw one INT every 29 attempts and one every 27 attempts, respectively. Last year, that number ballooned to one every 20 attempts. I don't think the guy will ever have another single digit INT season, or even close to it. But 23 is a bit much. I think 16-18 is a safe number this year.

 

[Godsbrother]

With all the crap that Ben went through last season he only missed 1 game. Early in the season he was just making horrendous decisions which led to a lot of interceptions. Whether or not that was due to the accident & appendectomy certainly is debatable.

One thing is for sure: the Steelers pass protection last season was not very good as Ben was sacked 46 times, including 9 times in one game against the Ravens. The Steelers are supposedly going to open up the offense a bit and Ben will now be calling the pass protection assignments so he can control where he wants extra protection. Time will tell how effective it will be in giving him the time he needs.

The one thing I am 100% confident in saying is that Ben is in no danger of losing his starting QB gig. The Steelers are already talking to Ben about an extension and his backups are Charlie Batch and Brian St. Pierre. He may get hurt, he may throw picks, but he is not going to lose his job.