Basic Drafting Principles Lost = More Value Than Ever (1 Viewer)

[hook014]

I'd also like to point out that value falls for everyone in a draft.

If you're saying "I can't believe the quality of RBs that were still on the board in Round 3", well guess what? The owner who took Rodgers in the 1st also gets a 3rd round pick too, and that value is sitting there waiting for him.

Yes, but he's drafting that guy as a RB1 while everyone else, who is calling that player a value pick, is looking at him as a RB2. That "value" is not actually sitting there waiting for the Rodgers owner because the value of a player is, in part, dependent on the rest of the players the owner already has rostered. Value does not fall for everyone equally. If you only start one QB and take Rodgers in the first round, then when Manning and Brady are still sitting there in the third they represent far less value to you than they do to the other eleven owners, for example.The age-old question is, will Rodgers provide enough of an advantage at the QB position to counteract the disadvantage you put yourself in by taking him in the first round? Most people believe he won't. If you want one of the "elite" QBs then you want the last one off the board, not the first one.

While earlier up thread I used Rodgers as an example for convenience, I completely agree with the bolded. In dynasty the strategy is a little different as you're playing for the long term, but in redraft the last elite pick is definitely the garden spot.

Keeping draft results from previous years in a long running league can help alot in draft prep. As excited as I am this time of year i always find time to save the doc for next year.

 

[LittlePhatty]

he's drafting that guy as a RB1 while everyone else, who is calling that player a value pick, is looking at him as a RB2. That "value" is not actually sitting there waiting for the Rodgers owner

The first part of my post was important too where I said RBs are increasingly viewed as carrying more risk than QBs.Popular opinion this year says there are 4 top RBs that can be viewed as "safe". Maybe 5 or 6 if you debate it. In past seasons people probably would have named 10 or 12 "safe pick" RBs.

So when we talk about 3rd round RBs like Cedric Benson or Ryan Grant, you can say that they have "less value" than Ryan Matthews according to your VBD calculator, but the truth is that more and more people are feeling confident that those guys have at least as much of a chance to perform at or above the ADP spot where Ryan Matthews is being drafted. It's the "lottery ticket" phenomenon. When a position holds more risk, you need to take more players at that position and hope a few of them strike gold. So mid or late Round 1, the top QB looks like the safer pick to a lot of people.

I also used Rodgers in the example because I feel the only people who benefit from this are the owners who take one of the top 3 or 4 QBs. It's the same theory that you want to be the person who starts a run on a position, not the one at the tail end of it. If QBs are going super early, like down into Kolb territory by Round 3, then it's the owners who took Rodgers or Brees that win out. I also want to make it clear that the "wait on a QB" guys are not the losers here. Yes, they stock up on RBs and WRs and hopefully get a QB committee that will perform. It's just that they are often faced with a tough "who to start at QB this week" decision for the whole season. The real losers are the guys who reached for the Kolb in Round 3 because not only did they miss out on a top QB, they are also spinning their wheels in round 3 and losing ground while all those lottery tickets are flying off the board.