Beginning to scratch the surface on this RBBC thing (1 Viewer)

[Dirty Weasel]

I took on the challenge to uncover the real deal about RBBC. I know the NFL has changed drastically over the years, but I figured it best to start with the 1978 season, because that's when the league switched to a 16-game schedule. I've completed the data from 1978 thru 1984 and trends are already showing themselves. Here are some highlights of the stats so far:

- Walter Payton had the highest % of his teams carries in 1978 (52.5%), but the neat thing is that Roland Harper (his teammate) had the highest % of all RB2's (37.9%). In my research thus far, they are one of only 3 sets of teammates to combine for over 90% of their teams carries. Another duo is from the 1983 Rams (Eric Dickerson at 76.3%, and Barry Redden at 14.7%). The third duo is neat, because it happens to be a RB/QB combo (the 1984 Bucs, with James Wilder at 84.3% and Steve DeBerg at 5.8%).

- Only 2 people from 1978 to 1981 had over 70% of their teams carries. Both happened in 1981. One is easy - Earl Campbell (77.5%), the other was Ted Brown (Minnesota, 70.1%, but he had almost 100 less carries than Earl). George Rogers led the league with 378 carries, but he only had 69.2%.

- Highest % of total team carries by RB1 in 1978 - 52.5% (Payton)

- Highest % of total team carries by RB1 in 1979 - 59.7% (Campbell)

- Highest % of total team carries by RB1 in 1980 - 65.1% (Campbell)

- Highest % of total team carries by RB1 in 1981 - 77.5% (Campbell)

- Highest % of total team carries by RB1 in 1982 - 69.8% (Campbell)

- Highest % of total team carries by RB1 in 1983 - 76.3% (Dickerson)

- Highest % of total team carries by RB1 in 1984 - 84.3% (Wilder)

- Highest % of total team carries by RB1 in 2006 - 81.6% (SJax)

- Three RB1's had over 80% in 2006 (SJax at 81.6, LJ at 81.4, and Edge at 80.4)

- If SJax would've had 81.6% of the carries for the 1978 Patriots, he would've had 548 carries!

- The 1980 Atlanta Falcons are the only team in my research so far that had 2 RB's with at least 40% each of the total team carries. They finished the year as FF RB8 and RB13. Not a bad combo to have.

- RB1's percentage of total team carries has steadily increased from 1978 to 1984.

1978 - 38.8%

1979 - 41.6%

1980 - 41.0%

1981 - 46.7%

1982 - 47.8%

1983 - 48.4%

1984 - 48.4%

Looking at the numbers, I think a large part of the reason for this increase is the fact that teams started passing more. It would be crazy to think that RB1's could've survive carrying in the high 70th percentile when the teams were getting near 700 carries per season. Payton had 333 totes in 1978, and that was only 52% of his team's total.

- RB2's percentage seems to be dipping slightly, as well as RB3's.

1978 - 25.8% 13.9%

1979 - 23.9% 13.5%

1980 - 24.2% 12.4%

1981 - 21.6% 11.4%

1982 - 23.8% 12.0%

1983 - 24.1% 11.4%

1984 - 20.6% 12.3%

Obviously, the dip in RB2 and RB3 numbers can be attributed to the fact that RB1's were able to carry more of the load when teams were passing more.

And here is my favorite one....

- You know how all FF owners curse Shanahan for his antics every year? Well, guess which team was the most RBBC-like in 1978? Denver's RB1 and RB2 both had a mere 112 carries each (lowest # for a RB1 in 1978). And to make matters worse, the RB3 had 108 carries. Moving on to 1979, Denver once again leads the RBBC charge. RB's 1-4 share to the tune of 108, 106, 102, and 81 carries, leading the league once again in the lowest carries for a RB1. OK, 1980 has to be different, right? Hey, it's a new decade and all. Well, same old story. Denver's RB1 only gets 111 carries - a whopping 23.1% of his teams total. RB2 and RB3 get 106 and 101 carries respectively. In 1981 they finally get a RB the ball 183 times, but guess what? RB2 gets it 176 times. I didn't know Shanny has been coaching the team for 30 years!

I'll try to post again when I complete another chunk, perhaps up to 1990 or 1995. My guess is that RB1 % will keep rising, RB2 % will even out, and we will eventually see a dip in RB3 %.

Note - If you think LJ is gonna wear down real fast, consider this - Earl Campbell averaged 354 carries for 6 straight seasons. Yes, I know he was a special runner, but at least it gives some hope to those LJ owners that maybe he can keep producing for 3 more years or so.

 

[jurb26]

Note - If you think LJ is gonna wear down real fast, consider this - Earl Campbell averaged 354 carries for 6 straight seasons. Yes, I know he was a special runner, but at least it gives some hope to those LJ owners that maybe he can keep producing for 3 more years or so.

Didn't Campbell pretty much wear down after 4 seasons? Heck you might even be able to agrue 3.

+--------------------------+-------------------------+				 |		  Rushing		 |		Receiving		|+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards	Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 1978 hou |  15 |   302   1450	4.8   13 |	12	 48   4.0	0 || 1979 hou |  16 |   368   1697	4.6   19 |	16	 94   5.9	0 || 1980 hou |  15 |   373   1934	5.2   13 |	11	 47   4.3	0 || 1981 hou |  16 |   361   1376	3.8   10 |	36	156   4.3	0 || 1982 hou |   9 |   157	538	3.4	2 |	18	130   7.2	0 || 1983 hou |  14 |   322   1301	4.0   12 |	19	216  11.4	0 || 1984 nor |   8 |	50	190	3.8	0 |	 0	  0   0.0	0 || 1984 hou |   6 |	96	278	2.9	4 |	 3	 27   9.0	0 || 1985 nor |  16 |   158	643	4.1	1 |	 6	 88  14.7	0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+|  TOTAL   | 115 |  2187   9407	4.3   74 |   121	806   6.7	0 |

 

[jurb26]

And here is my favorite one....- You know how all FF owners curse Shanahan for his antics every year? Well, guess which team was the most RBBC-like in 1978? Denver's RB1 and RB2 both had a mere 112 carries each (lowest # for a RB1 in 1978). And to make matters worse, the RB3 had 108 carries. Moving on to 1979, Denver once again leads the RBBC charge. RB's 1-4 share to the tune of 108, 106, 102, and 81 carries, leading the league once again in the lowest carries for a RB1. OK, 1980 has to be different, right? Hey, it's a new decade and all. Well, same old story. Denver's RB1 only gets 111 carries - a whopping 23.1% of his teams total. RB2 and RB3 get 106 and 101 carries respectively. In 1981 they finally get a RB the ball 183 times, but guess what? RB2 gets it 176 times. I didn't know Shanny has been coaching the team for 30 years!

 

[coolnerd]

for some day when I should be working

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

very cool stuff. thanks! keep us posted as you finish...

 

[Bri]

might want to consider yards and TDs

 

[Dirty Weasel]

Note - If you think LJ is gonna wear down real fast, consider this - Earl Campbell averaged 354 carries for 6 straight seasons. Yes, I know he was a special runner, but at least it gives some hope to those LJ owners that maybe he can keep producing for 3 more years or so.

Didn't Campbell pretty much wear down after 4 seasons? Heck you might even be able to agrue 3.

+--------------------------+-------------------------+				 |		  Rushing		 |		Receiving		|+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards	Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 1978 hou |  15 |   302   1450	4.8   13 |	12	 48   4.0	0 || 1979 hou |  16 |   368   1697	4.6   19 |	16	 94   5.9	0 || 1980 hou |  15 |   373   1934	5.2   13 |	11	 47   4.3	0 || 1981 hou |  16 |   361   1376	3.8   10 |	36	156   4.3	0 || 1982 hou |   9 |   157	  538	3.4	 2 |	18	130   7.2	0 || 1983 hou |  14 |   322   1301	4.0   12 |	19	216  11.4	0 || 1984 nor |   8 |	 50	 190	3.8	0 |	 0	  0   0.0	0 || 1984 hou |   6 |	96	278	2.9	4 |	 3	 27   9.0	0 || 1985 nor |  16 |   158	643	4.1	1 |	 6	 88  14.7	0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+|  TOTAL   | 115 |  2187   9407	4.3   74 |   121	806   6.7	0 |

The 1982 season was only 9 games long, and he finished with the 7th most carries. In 1983 he had 322 carries in only 14 games, placing him 5th. I'd say those 2 seasons easily count as workhorse material. Sure, his YPC took a huge dip in 1981, and never seemed to come back, but I'm not sure we can attribute all of that to big Earl. Perhaps his OL started to decline, or maybe teams didn't fear the Oilers passing game and completely stacked the box. The point was he kept getting the rock for 6 straight seasons.As for adding in yards and TDs, that will be done after I finish gathering the amount of carries. I'm pretty curious to see what the data will say about when the league really started using 3rd down backs and TD vultures. I think there may be 2 forms of RBBC in the NFL. My guess is the data will reflect RBBC used to mean RB1's simply sharing the load, and at some point in time it changed to RB1's losing out on carries to the 3rd down RB's (Kevin Faulk) and TD vultures (Brandon Jacobs). A staffer from the pro football reference website sent me a mega-excel spreadsheet that I will incorporate into mine when I am done. By the looks of it, I should've started this research months ago. If nothing else, at least it's giving me something to do before FF draft day.