Being a Big underdog and correlated outcomes (1 Viewer)

[dtroitkid]

I'm a significant underdog this week. According to CBS, I have a 36% chance of winning.

My QB is Rodgers and my opponent has Adams and Aaron Jones. So I'm considering starting a Watson instead (even though he is projected to score less points) and hope that somehow the Lions D shuts down the Packers. Seems unlikely but I need a lot of help either way.

Conversely, If you are a favorite to win you should be more apt to start a WR or QB that is teammate of one of your opponents players.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

While I understand your thought process, the first rule of FF is to always start the lineup you believe will score the most points.

 

[dtroitkid]

The first rule should probably be: start the lineup that gives you the best chance of winning.

That said, I'm not too sold on this. Just saying, it's worth considering. It's not as if Watson is a slouch, he just has a tough matchup.

 

[ZWK]

Adjusting in that direction seems reasonable. I'm not sure if it's a big enough factor to overcome the expected points edge of Rodgers over Watson.

I think the FBG League Dominator takes this stuff into account in its lineup recommendations. It tries to recommend the lineup that gives you the best chance of winning, not just the one that scores the most expected points. So if you're a subscriber you could see what it says.

 

[dtroitkid]

Adjusting in that direction seems reasonable. I'm not sure if it's a big enough factor to overcome the expected points edge of Rodgers over Watson.

I think the FBG League Dominator takes this stuff into account in its lineup recommendations. It tries to recommend the lineup that gives you the best chance of winning, not just the one that scores the most expected points. So if you're a subscriber you could see what it says.

League Dominator says "optimized for highest score." Not sure if it does take this into account, unless there is a setting i can change. But I can't find anything.

 

[dtroitkid]

Got it, its the "Matchup Dominator" i need.

Thanks

 

[FairWarning]

Why would you start someone outside in December when you could have a QB in a dome against a D that couldn't stop Mitch Trubisky and the Bears offense?  D Adams is scoring against your team whether you start ARod or not.  What about if Jones catches a TD and ARod is on your bench?  

Dtroitkid - the Bears pass D has fallen apart, but I would rather have my QB throwing to a top 3 WR instead of Coutee.  

 

[dtroitkid]

Ok, so maybe I've overestimated this concept. So, always start the highest projected scores regardless of your odds of winning and your opponents team i guess.

How about starting Tonyan instead of Hockenson? In hopes of Rodgers targeting him a lot instead of Adams/Jones. Is this a little less radical??

 

[IHEARTFF]

Ok, so maybe I've overestimated this concept. So, always start the highest projected scores regardless of your odds of winning and your opponents team i guess.

How about starting Tonyan instead of Hockenson? In hopes of Rodgers targeting him a lot instead of Adams/Jones. Is this a little less radical??

That choice makes more sense in this case as those players are similarly ranked and you need some good fortune and Tonyan catching TDs for you would be that.

Thinking of making some similar decisions in one of my games as I'm maybe 35-40% chance to win. Considering starting DJ Chark over Deebo even though Chark is lower ranked this week as his upside seems higher to me.

 

[FairWarning]

Ok, so maybe I've overestimated this concept. So, always start the highest projected scores regardless of your odds of winning and your opponents team i guess.

How about starting Tonyan instead of Hockenson? In hopes of Rodgers targeting him a lot instead of Adams/Jones. Is this a little less radical??

If they were similar, yes.  Your problem is if Adams and Jones get the ball, then Tonyan isn't.  Chances are Detroit will be losing and have to throw more, so I would rather start Hockenson.  Hockenson is a primary weapon in that offense while Tonyan isn't in GB's.  Even if you don't start Tonyan, you still benefit from his TD's thru Rodgers.  Your opponent gets nothing for them.  In an elimination game, Tonyan isn't the worst option though.  Hockenson will just get more chances, and thats all you can ask for.

It could be worse, I'm trying to hold off the 2nd place team who has ARod AND Adams.   

 

[davidwb]

Adams and Jones will score whatever they score regardless of whether or not you start Rodgers at QB. Lets say you started Rodgers and he had a great day and got you 30 points, and Adams and Jones each got 20 points, then you'd be down by a net 10 points. But if you started Watson and he got you 25 points, Adams and Jones would still get their 20 points each (as their play would be independent of whom you started), and you'd be down by a net 15 points. You should only start Watson if you think he'd get your more points than Rodgers.