Belichick vs. Bottom 5 Run Defenses (1 Viewer)

[WOLVERINES!!!]

Need some Footballguys help and stat digging.

Just picked up Maroney and wanted to know if historically Belichick has run the ball more often when facing poor (or bottom 5 to be more precise) run defenses. Tampa is currently the 31st ranked run defense but they have also given up the 3rd most passing TDs.

I'd like to think Maroney builds on his success from last week, but with Belichick you just never know.

Can anyone dig up what Belichick has done historically with the NE running game when facing a bottom 5 run defense?

Thanks in advance!

WOLVERINES!!!

 

[David Yudkin]

In the TB & BB era . . .

Team rushing totals:

2009

BUF 23-73-1

2008

KC 28-126-1 (Brady injury game)

OAK 39-277-2 (No Brady)

STL 29-98-1 (No Brady)

2007

NYJ 37-134-1

MIA 22-84-0

NYJ 35-131-1 (Monsoon game)

MIA 25-196-1

2006

BUF 41-183-0

BUF 27-94-2

IND 33-148-2

TEN 31-171-3

IND 24-93-1 (AFCC Game)

2005

BUF 22-93-2

NYJ 35-146-1

BUF 41-159-2

NYJ 50-151-2

2004

MIA 38-135-1

STL 32-147-1

CLE 50-225-3

MIA 38-166-1

2003

NYJ 36-147-1

HOU 41-128-0

NYJ 24-133-0

2002

BUF 36-159-2

BUF 26-92-1

2001

NYJ 26-107-0 (Bledsoe injury game)

NYJ 23-73-2

CLE 33-81-2

CAR 36-102-1

 

[WOLVERINES!!!]

DY you're an animal, exactly what I was looking for!!

I'll make my best guess at splits for the NE RB's and then decide if Maroney gets the nod to start.

Thanks again!

WOLVERINES!!!

 

[gonzobill5]

In the TB & BB era . . .Team rushing totals:2009BUF 23-73-12008KC 28-126-1 (Brady injury game)OAK 39-277-2 (No Brady)STL 29-98-1 (No Brady)2007NYJ 37-134-1MIA 22-84-0NYJ 35-131-1 (Monsoon game)MIA 25-196-12006BUF 41-183-0BUF 27-94-2IND 33-148-2TEN 31-171-3IND 24-93-1 (AFCC Game)2005BUF 22-93-2NYJ 35-146-1BUF 41-159-2NYJ 50-151-22004MIA 38-135-1STL 32-147-1CLE 50-225-3MIA 38-166-12003NYJ 36-147-1HOU 41-128-0NYJ 24-133-02002BUF 36-159-2BUF 26-92-12001NYJ 26-107-0 (Bledsoe injury game)NYJ 23-73-2CLE 33-81-2CAR 36-102-1

I'm smitten.

 

[bigmiiiiike]

Wow, nice work DY. I interpret these stats to mean that most likely NE will put up 130-170 yards on the ground this week v. TB. However, the weather in Wembly is supposed to be bad (windy + rain), so that'll probably mean more running the ball, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a 200 yard rushing effort and disappointing stats for Brady, Moss, Welker @ Co. I'd project Maroney for 100 yards this week, BJGE for 50, and Faulk for 30 and 1-2 TDs between them.

 

[Cool in the pocket]

Wow, nice work DY. I interpret these stats to mean that most likely NE will put up 130-170 yards on the ground this week v. TB. However, the weather in Wembly is supposed to be bad (windy + rain), so that'll probably mean more running the ball, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a 200 yard rushing effort and disappointing stats for Brady, Moss, Welker @ Co. I'd project Maroney for 100 yards this week, BJGE for 50, and Faulk for 30 and 1-2 TDs between them.

Where are you getting your weather info? Weather network has London sunny and 12-16 degrees. Weather

BBC has sun/cloud mix and around 17 degrees with winds around 17 as well. Weather BBC

It's only Thursday, so lots of time to change, but I don't see weather being a factor right now.

 

[PosterNutBag]

Wow, nice work DY. I interpret these stats to mean that most likely NE will put up 130-170 yards on the ground this week v. TB. However, the weather in Wembly is supposed to be bad (windy + rain), so that'll probably mean more running the ball, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a 200 yard rushing effort and disappointing stats for Brady, Moss, Welker @ Co. I'd project Maroney for 100 yards this week, BJGE for 50, and Faulk for 30 and 1-2 TDs between them.

Where are you getting your weather info? Weather network has London sunny and 12-16 degrees. Weather

BBC has sun/cloud mix and around 17 degrees with winds around 17 as well. Weather BBC

It's only Thursday, so lots of time to change, but I don't see weather being a factor right now.

if anyone was wondering (like me) what those temps would be in Fahrenheit and not Celcius [F = (C × 1.8) + 32] ....12-16 degrees C = 53.6 - 60.8 degrees F

17 degrees C = 62.6 degrees F

 

[Cool in the pocket]

Wow, nice work DY. I interpret these stats to mean that most likely NE will put up 130-170 yards on the ground this week v. TB. However, the weather in Wembly is supposed to be bad (windy + rain), so that'll probably mean more running the ball, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a 200 yard rushing effort and disappointing stats for Brady, Moss, Welker @ Co. I'd project Maroney for 100 yards this week, BJGE for 50, and Faulk for 30 and 1-2 TDs between them.

Where are you getting your weather info? Weather network has London sunny and 12-16 degrees. Weather

BBC has sun/cloud mix and around 17 degrees with winds around 17 as well. Weather BBC

It's only Thursday, so lots of time to change, but I don't see weather being a factor right now.

if anyone was wondering (like me) what those temps would be in Fahrenheit and not Celcius [F = (C × 1.8) + 32] ....12-16 degrees C = 53.6 - 60.8 degrees F

17 degrees C = 62.6 degrees F

Sorry, that's the Canadian in me...

 

[WOLVERINES!!!]

My interpretation was along the following lines....

1/3 chance 0-100 yds rushing

1/3 chance 100-150 yds rushing

1/3 chance 150+ yds rushing

1/6 chance 0 TD

3/6 chance 1 TD

2/6 chance 2+ TDs

So all in all a pretty solid forcast for the NE running game.....

Perhaps

140 yds rushing and 1+ TDs

So for the lead NE running back (Maroney hopefully in my case)....

80 yds and a TD.....solid production from a bye starter or otherwise.

Now it's just deciding if Belichick with make Maroney the lead back this week.

Gotta love fantasy football!

WOLVERINES!!!

 

[PosterNutBag]

My interpretation was along the following lines....

1/3 chance 0-100 yds rushing

1/3 chance 100-150 yds rushing

1/3 chance 150+ yds rushing

1/6 chance 0 TD

3/6 chance 1 TD

2/6 chance 2+ TDs

So all in all a pretty solid forcast for the NE running game.....

Perhaps

140 yds rushing and 1+ TDs

So for the lead NE running back (Maroney hopefully in my case)....

80 yds and a TD.....solid production from a bye starter or otherwise.

Now it's just deciding if Belichick with make Maroney the lead back this week.

Gotta love fantasy football!

WOLVERINES!!!

I would say that is pretty close, but I would probably adjust the numbers like this to be slightly less optimistic:2/6 chance 0-100 yds rushing

3/6 chance 100-150 yds rushing (i took 1/3 from the 150+ and put it here --- i don't like his chances of that many rushing yards, although 150+ combined rush/rec yds seems more likely)

1/6 chance 150+ yds rushing

2/6 chance 0 TD (i took 1/3 from the 2+ and put it here since there is a more than realistic chance BJGE or Brady passing could prevent Maroney from scoring)

3/6 chance 1 TD

1/6 chance 2+ TDs

regardless of how you look at it, this is probably the best Maroney has ever looked for a realistic chance at fantasy stardom coming into a game

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

you guys and your weather.

Seriously if last week vs. Tenn doesnt prove that you never bench your studs in the weather I dont know what does. (not to mention last year Cassells vs. Arizona in a blizzard as well)